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    Max Gumport

    Senior Analyst at BNP Paribas

    Max Gumport is a Senior Analyst at BNP Paribas Global Markets, specializing in equity research with a focus on the packaged foods sector. He covers publicly traded companies including WK Kellogg, providing investment calls such as a July 2025 upgrade on KLG to Neutral with a $23 price target. With a track record reflected in platforms like Benzinga and recent updates on TipRanks, Gumport is known for his in-depth coverage and market insight, though specific performance metrics such as success rates or average returns are not publicly disclosed. He joined BNP Paribas after prior analytical roles in the finance industry, and is listed as the firm's point of contact for analyst coverage of Kellanova; verified securities licensure or additional professional credentials have not been publicly listed.

    Max Gumport's questions to J M SMUCKER (SJM) leadership

    Max Gumport's questions to J M SMUCKER (SJM) leadership • Q1 2026

    Question

    Max Gumport of BNP Paribas sought to reconcile the updated coffee assumptions, asking why the segment's profit outlook remains stable despite worse-than-expected volume impacts. He also requested more color on the company's GLP-1 research, questioning why no impact is being seen if the drugs are known to reduce food consumption.

    Answer

    CFO Tucker Marshall clarified the coffee financials, explaining that a $0.20 EPS benefit from better-than-expected elasticity was offset by a new $0.25 EPS headwind from increased tariffs, effectively bringing the segment's profit back to its original plan. CEO Mark Smucker added that GLP-1 research shows no impact because categories like coffee and pet are unaffected, while indulgent snacks like Hostess are still consumed as small rewards, a trend supported by continued consumer snacking habits.

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    Max Gumport's questions to J M SMUCKER (SJM) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    Max Gumport asked about the drivers of the free cash flow miss in fiscal 2025, the reasons for the guided increase in fiscal 2026 despite lower expected EPS, and how the company plans to fund its debt paydown and dividend commitments.

    Answer

    CFO Tucker Marshall attributed the FY25 miss to higher inventory balances from green coffee inflation. He explained the FY26 improvement is driven by a $75 million reduction in capital expenditures to $325 million, plus continued working capital management. He confirmed that debt paydown will be funded by a combination of free cash flow after dividends and excess cash from the balance sheet.

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    Max Gumport's questions to Kraft Heinz (KHC) leadership

    Max Gumport's questions to Kraft Heinz (KHC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Max Gumport questioned the confidence in the current reinvestment plan, noting it appears less sizable than some peers' despite ongoing volume declines, and asked for the rationale.

    Answer

    EVP & Global CFO Andre Maciel emphasized a disciplined, test-and-scale approach to investments. He stated that the company feels the current plans are appropriate but will not hesitate to increase spending if positive results are seen. The focus is on healthy, long-term growth through product and marketing rather than just price.

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    Max Gumport's questions to HERSHEY (HSY) leadership

    Max Gumport's questions to HERSHEY (HSY) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Max Gumport of BNP Paribas inquired about the path to achieving $10+ adjusted EPS in 2026, considering the new pricing, tariffs, and current cocoa costs. He also asked about the potential need for incremental reinvestment to support the price increases.

    Answer

    SVP & CFO Steve Voskuil explained that while the new pricing is a material step towards margin recovery, it does not fully offset cocoa inflation to date. He noted that relief on tariffs or a reversion in cocoa prices could lead to better-than-algorithm earnings in 2026. He also confirmed that investments in brands, innovation, and customer events are factored into the pricing plan to support growth.

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    Max Gumport's questions to HERSHEY (HSY) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Max Gumport inquired about the path to achieving $10+ adjusted EPS in 2026, considering the new pricing actions and the added headwind of tariffs, and asked about the need for incremental reinvestment to support the price hikes.

    Answer

    SVP & CFO Steve Voskuil explained that while the new pricing is a significant step towards margin recovery, it does not fully offset cocoa inflation to date, and tariffs are a new headwind. He noted that if cocoa prices fall or tariff relief is granted, Hershey could achieve 'better than on algorithm' earnings in 2026. He also confirmed that brand investments and innovation funding are already factored into the pricing strategy.

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    Max Gumport's questions to HERSHEY (HSY) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Max Gumport inquired about the path to $10+ adjusted EPS in 2026, considering the new pricing and tariffs, and asked about the need for incremental reinvestment to support the significant price increases.

    Answer

    SVP & CFO Steve Voskuil explained that while the new pricing is a material step toward margin recovery, it does not fully offset cocoa inflation to date. He noted that tariffs are a new headwind not contemplated in the original $10+ EPS scenario. However, he expressed optimism that if tariffs are relieved or cocoa prices revert, Hershey could achieve better than on-algorithm earnings in 2026. He also confirmed that brand reinvestment is factored into the pricing strategy.

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    Max Gumport's questions to Mondelez International (MDLZ) leadership

    Max Gumport's questions to Mondelez International (MDLZ) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Max Gumport of BNP Paribas asked for more details on the drivers behind retailer destocking in North America and the expected timeline for recovery.

    Answer

    CEO Dirk Van de Put attributed the destocking to retailers managing cash flow amid a slowdown in overall consumption and potentially reallocating inventory ahead of tariffs on other goods. He noted that while some destocking in Q2 was a surprise, the company expects inventory levels to be 'clean' starting in Q3. He also mentioned that Mondelez is offsetting the impact by increasing focus on other channels like value and e-commerce.

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    Max Gumport's questions to Mondelez International (MDLZ) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Max Gumport of BNP Paribas asked for more details on the retailer destocking observed in North America, including its primary drivers and the expected recovery timeline.

    Answer

    Chairman & CEO Dirk Van de Put attributed the destocking to retailers managing cash flow amid a broader consumption slowdown and potentially reallocating inventory ahead of tariffs. He noted that Mondelez is offsetting this by focusing on other channels like value and e-commerce. He expressed confidence that the destocking is now complete and expects Q3 to be 'clean' from an inventory perspective.

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    Max Gumport's questions to Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) leadership

    Max Gumport's questions to Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    Max Gumport from BNP Paribas asked for more detail on the company's strategic plans for geographies where it lacks a competitive advantage, specifically mentioning Europe. He also questioned the rationale and timing for excluding non-cash stock-based compensation from adjusted EBITDA metrics, viewing it as a real expense.

    Answer

    President & CEO Mike Smith declined to share specific geographic plans for competitive reasons but assured updates would be provided as decisions are finalized. CFO Bernadette Madarieta defended the accounting change, stating that while cash incentive awards remain in EBITDA, removing the non-cash portion reduces volatility and aligns reporting with how management internally evaluates the business, a practice she noted is common in the industry.

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    Max Gumport's questions to CONAGRA BRANDS (CAG) leadership

    Max Gumport's questions to CONAGRA BRANDS (CAG) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    Max Gumport from BNP Paribas asked for the expected path to margin recovery from the guided 11-11.5% operating margin, and inquired about the potential need to rationalize the manufacturing footprint due to operating deleverage from volume declines.

    Answer

    President & CEO Sean Connolly described the current margin pressure as a mechanical part of the inflation cycle, now compounded by a strategic choice to invest for volume rather than take broad-based pricing. He expects margins to bounce back post-FY26. EVP & CFO David Marberger added that while they constantly review their network, a current absorption headwind is due to temporary production shifts for facility upgrades, which will become a tailwind in FY27 as production is brought back in-house.

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    Max Gumport's questions to MCCORMICK & CO (MKC) leadership

    Max Gumport's questions to MCCORMICK & CO (MKC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Max Gumport asked for confirmation that the company's long-term financial targets remain intact despite the new tariff outlook and requested more detail on the observed uptick in innovation activity from large CPG customers.

    Answer

    Chairman, President & CEO Brendan Foley confirmed that the company remains confident in its long-term objectives. Regarding innovation, he described a 'net incremental' increase in activity from CPG customers, particularly in reformulation and matching driven by health and wellness trends. He noted that while McCormick's win rate is strong, the timing of when these benefits will materialize is variable.

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    Max Gumport's questions to MCCORMICK & CO (MKC) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Max Gumport asked to what extent the observed softness in the snacking category is driven by consumer financial pressures versus changing preferences toward healthier eating.

    Answer

    Chairman, President and CEO Brendan Foley attributed the trend to a combination of both factors. He noted that while there is some softness, growth pockets exist in value-added and better-for-you snacks. More broadly, he described the consumer as resilient but cautious, continuing value-seeking behaviors like cooking from scratch, which they perceive as both cheaper and healthier. This dynamic ultimately benefits McCormick's core categories.

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    Max Gumport's questions to MCCORMICK & CO (MKC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Max Gumport highlighted the dichotomy between McCormick's strong U.S. consumer volumes and the soft volumes of its CPG customers in the Flavor Solutions segment. He also asked for more detail on the strategic inventory buys that impacted 2024 cash flow.

    Answer

    CEO Brendan Foley attributed their consumer outperformance to strong execution and competing in healthy, growing categories like spices and hot sauce. CFO Marcos Gabriel explained the inventory buys are 'business as usual' strategic decisions to secure supply and lock in favorable costs on commodities, noting it's a standard part of their procurement playbook.

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    Max Gumport's questions to MCCORMICK & CO (MKC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Max Gumport sought confirmation that long-term financial targets still stand despite the tariff outlook and asked for more detail on the innovation uptick from large CPG customers.

    Answer

    CEO Brendan Foley confirmed they remain 'confident and comfortable' with their long-term objectives from the last Investor Day. Regarding CPGs, he described a 'net incremental' increase in reformulation and matching activity on top of normal innovation, driven by health and wellness trends. He noted their win rate on these projects is strong, though the timing of benefits varies.

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    Max Gumport's questions to GENERAL MILLS (GIS) leadership

    Max Gumport's questions to GENERAL MILLS (GIS) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    Max Gumport noted that in areas of reinvestment, price declines are outpacing volume gains, hurting dollar sales. He asked for confidence in this relationship improving and requested a quantification of the investment in the fresh pet food launch.

    Answer

    CEO Jeffrey Harmening confirmed that volume share outpacing dollar share was expected and modeled for the first half of the year. He anticipates this will reverse in the second half as the company laps pricing actions and benefits from sustained marketing and innovation. He declined to quantify the fresh pet investment but stressed it would be significant to support a national launch and drive trial.

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    Max Gumport's questions to GENERAL MILLS (GIS) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    Max Gumport of BNP Paribas pointed to refrigerated dough, where volumes are up but dollar sales are down, and asked what provides confidence this relationship will improve. He also asked for the investment amount behind the fresh pet food launch.

    Answer

    Chairman & CEO Jeffrey Harmening stated that the volume/dollar share dynamic was expected and modeled. He anticipates that as the company laps pricing investments in the second half of the year, the impact of strong marketing and innovation will cause dollar shares to begin growing. He declined to quantify the fresh pet investment but confirmed it would be significant to drive trial for the national launch.

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    Max Gumport's questions to HORMEL FOODS CORP /DE/ (HRL) leadership

    Max Gumport's questions to HORMEL FOODS CORP /DE/ (HRL) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Max Gumport asked if the high end of the company's guidance range is now less likely, given that the previously mentioned tailwind from an improved turkey market appears to be unrealized. He also sought clarification on the T&M financial targets, asking how the FY25 savings goal of $100M-$150M contributes to the multi-year $200M+ EBIT income target.

    Answer

    CFO Jacinth Smiley maintained that the high end of the guidance range is still achievable. While acknowledging the turkey market dynamic, she emphasized that other drivers like volume, mix, the Planters recovery, and T&M performance are still in play to reach the target. CEO James Snee described the T&M benefits as an escalating 'growth flywheel' that continues to build, noting that the FY25 plan also includes significant reinvestment, but did not provide a specific breakdown of the multi-year target.

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    Max Gumport's questions to Oatly Group (OTLY) leadership

    Max Gumport's questions to Oatly Group (OTLY) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Max Gumport asked about the extent of Oatly's control in reigniting category growth, the impact of household penetration plateaus, and for an update on the company's long-term supply chain efficiency journey.

    Answer

    Global President and COO Daniel Ordonez stated that Oatly is adding 'category growth' to its list of controllables, planning to drive a 'second wave of momentum' through mechanical growth from distribution and a more precise marketing approach targeting taste perception barriers. CEO Jean-Christophe Flatin explained that the supply chain strategy involves focusing on five existing global sites after discontinuing new factory projects. This focus, combined with a permanent quest for efficiency, drove significant past margin gains and will be the primary contributor to 2025 EBITDA improvement.

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    Max Gumport's questions to WK Kellogg (KLG) leadership

    Max Gumport's questions to WK Kellogg (KLG) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Max Gumport sought clarification on the Q1 sales cadence and asked what will drive the expected improvement in underlying business trends from Q2 through Q4.

    Answer

    CFO David McKinstray clarified the Q1 headwind is relative to full-year guidance and expects Q2-Q4 to be uniform. CEO Gary Pilnick cited several drivers for improvement: a stable category, a more seasoned sales team, a robust commercial plan with broader innovation, and a focus on growth areas like natural/organic.

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    Max Gumport's questions to WK Kellogg (KLG) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Max Gumport questioned why the cereal category is not seeing better performance, given its strong value proposition in an economic environment where consumers are actively seeking value.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO Gary Pilnick acknowledged the logic but framed the category's modest decline as stable performance in a challenging environment. He suggested that WK Kellogg Co.'s own PPA strategy, which can impact reported volume, also affects the overall category numbers due to the company's significant market share. He affirmed that value-seeking behavior should be a tailwind for cereal.

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    Max Gumport's questions to KELLANOVA (K) leadership

    Max Gumport's questions to KELLANOVA (K) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Max Gumport of BNP Paribas followed up on the competitive environment, asking why Kellanova's business does not seem to require more price investment or givebacks, especially when competitors and retailers are increasingly signaling a need for it.

    Answer

    Chairman, President and CEO Steven Cahillane responded by pointing directly to the company's performance and outlook. He stated that Kellanova had a terrific second quarter, raised its full-year guidance, and has great confidence in its plans, innovation, and brand-building returns. He concluded that the company does not feel it is missing anything or needs to alter its current pricing and promotional strategy, as evidenced by its strong results.

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