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Max Kogge

Research Analyst at ODDO

Maxime Kogge is an Equity Analyst at ODDO BHF specializing in the metals and mining sector, with a coverage focus on companies such as Aurubis. Since joining ODDO BHF in October 2022, Kogge has provided detailed research and investment ratings, including buy, hold, and sell recommendations on key industry players, with documented involvement in coverage decisions noted in published annual reports. While detailed quantitative performance metrics or external analyst rankings were not publicly available, his analytical work is consistently referenced by covered companies in their investor communications. Prior to ODDO BHF, specific details regarding Kogge's previous professional experience and regulatory credentials have not been disclosed in available public records.

Max Kogge's questions to ArcelorMittal (MT) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

Max Kogge asked for an update on the Ilva situation, including next milestones and clarity on financial impact, and confirmed if any provisions have been made. He also sought initial feedback on the first months of CBAM implementation, specifically regarding circumvention and whether import front-loading means the full pricing impact is yet to come. Finally, he inquired about the financing strategy for the India greenfield project, asking if it would be self-funded, use bank lines, or involve equity injections from shareholders, and if it would be included in CapEx guidance.

Answer

CFO Genuino Christino referred to the press release for Ilva, confirming no provisions have been made as they believe the case lacks merit, and expects the legal process to last a couple of years. CEO Aditya Mittal explained that CBAM, effective January 1, 2026, applies to products produced *after* that date, meaning front-loading of December 2025 production delayed its impact. He noted that import offers now include CBAM costs, reflecting in European spot pricing, and that while efforts are ongoing to tighten CBAM and prevent circumvention (resource shuffling), they have not observed it yet. For the India greenfield project, Mr. Mittal stated ArcelorMittal's focus is on minimizing funding costs and ensuring supportive capital structures, promising updates on CapEx guidance and funding details after achieving groundbreaking and key milestones.

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Question · Q4 2025

Max Kogge asked for an update on the Ilva situation, including next milestones and clarity on financial impact, and whether any provisions have been made. He also sought initial feedback on the first months of CBAM implementation, specifically regarding circumvention and the impact of import front-loading on future pricing. Finally, he inquired about the financing strategy for the India greenfield project, whether it would be self-funded, use bank lines, or involve equity injections, and if it would be included in CapEx guidance.

Answer

CFO Genuino M. Christino referred to the company's press release for Ilva, stating no provisions have been made as the claims lack merit, and legal proceedings are expected to last a couple of years. CEO Aditya Mittal addressed CBAM, explaining that import offers now include CBAM costs, leading to changes in European spot steel pricing, despite some front-loading of pre-CBAM product in late 2025. He noted ongoing efforts to tighten CBAM, including reviews for downstream industries, support funds for European exports, and anti-circumvention legislation, though no circumvention has been observed so far. For the India greenfield project, Aditya Mittal stated the focus is on minimizing funding costs through optimal capital structures for both ArcelorMittal and its joint ventures. He committed to updating the market on CapEx guidance and financing details once key milestones are achieved.

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Question · Q3 2025

Max Kogge asked about ArcelorMittal's confidence in its Mexico asset returning to normalized productivity after recent issues, the impact of import pressure in Brazil and India on investment decisions, and the commitment to maintaining production in Ukraine despite increasing challenges.

Answer

CFO Genuino Christino expressed confidence in Mexico's recovery through SOP reviews and Group CTO support. He affirmed a bullish long-term view on Brazil, citing anti-dumping measures expected by year-end, and noted strong demand in India despite low prices from new capacity. For Ukraine, he stated the plan is to continue production at available capacity, managing high energy costs while engaging with the government.

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