Michael Dahl

Michael Dahl with RBC Capital Markets sought further clarification on TopBuild's pricing, specifically regarding out-the-door pricing versus cost, the impact of low single-digit price pressure on residential fiberglass from OEMs, and how pricing assumptions are split between installation and distribution. Dahl also asked about commercial roofing market volume growth and Progressive's outgrowth assumptions for 2026.

Answer

CFO Robert Kuhns reiterated that pricing is a local decision, with competitive pressures in some markets leading to price reductions, which can be a margin headwind even with dollar-for-dollar recovery. President and CEO Robert Buck highlighted Progressive Roofing's strong 2025 performance and growing backlogs for 2026, noting a strong footprint in the Southwest and expansion through M&A.

Michael Dahl sought clarification on out-the-door pricing versus cost, particularly regarding residential fiberglass price pressure and its impact on installation versus distribution, and asked about commercial roofing dynamics, including market-level volume growth and Progressive's outgrowth assumptions for 2026.

Answer

Robert Kuhns, CFO, explained that pricing is a local decision influenced by builder affordability challenges, leading to market competitiveness. Robert Buck, President and CEO, highlighted Progressive Roofing's strong 2025 organic growth and Q4 execution, noting growing backlogs, a strong Southwest footprint, and plans to expand through M&A, expressing high confidence for 2026 commercial roofing.

Michael Dahl from RBC Capital Markets questioned why Ferguson's midterm growth and margin expectations remain largely similar to those presented in 2022, despite the dramatic growth in market opportunities and improved capabilities. He also asked for an update on typical margins for large capital projects and Ferguson's relative market share or win rates in these categories.

Answer

Bill Brundage, CFO, explained that the slight conservatism in market growth assumptions (2%-4%) compared to 2022 accounts for some of the similarity, but emphasized the consistent expectation of 300-400 basis points of organic outperformance. He noted that large capital projects generally have slightly lower gross margins but also lower cost to serve, resulting in strong net operating margins and returns on capital. Kevin Murphy, President and CEO, highlighted strong outperformance in non-residential, commercial mechanical, Waterworks, and industrial segments, indicating better share performance in large capital projects.

Michael Dahl questioned why Ferguson's midterm growth and margin expectations remain largely similar to those presented in 2022, despite the dramatically grown opportunity set and improved capabilities, particularly regarding large capital projects and HVAC/water. He also asked for an update on typical margins for large capital projects like data centers and any updated figures on relative market share or win rates in these categories.

Answer

Bill Brundage (CFO) explained that the market growth assumption (2%-4%) underpins the overall growth algorithm, with slight conservatism due to near-term residential pressure, emphasizing consistent organic outperformance and operating margin expansion. Regarding large capital projects, Bill Brundage noted they have slightly lower gross margins but lower cost to serve, resulting in strong net operating margins. Kevin Murphy (President and CEO) added that Ferguson has seen better-than-traditional outperformance in non-residential, indicating strong share performance.

Michael Dahl probed the gross margin dynamics, asking if the company felt the balance between market share and price had gotten 'out of whack' in late 2024, and requested more specific guidance on the pricing cadence for the second half of the year.

Answer

CEO Kevin Murphy acknowledged that November and December were more challenged but felt encouraged by the trajectory in January and February. He reiterated the company's long-term goal of being a 30-plus percent gross margin business. CFO Bill Brundage provided a pricing outlook, stating that while pricing levels should improve through the second half, he still expects overall deflation in Q3. He projected pricing would be 'close to flat' by Q4 but did not expect a return to positive pricing in the current fiscal year.

Michael Dahl from RBC Capital Markets asked about the outlook for free cash flow and capital allocation in FY25, including the M&A pipeline, and sought to understand the organic growth component of the HVAC business.

Answer

CFO Bill Brundage stated that Ferguson aims for 100% free cash flow conversion from net income and will maintain its capital allocation priorities of organic investment, dividends, M&A, and buybacks, supported by a strong balance sheet. He confirmed the vast majority of the 9% Q4 HVAC growth was organic. CEO Kevin Murphy added that the M&A pipeline is healthy, with a focus on HVAC and non-residential capabilities, and outlined a three-pronged strategy for HVAC growth.

Michael Dahl asked for quantification of the pace dynamics and seasonal improvement observed in Q4 2025 and January/February 2026, given the recent non-normal market conditions.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Sheryl Palmer noted sequential improvement in orders from November to December and December to January, despite significant weather events in January, attributing some strength to virtual tools. February was generally similar. Michael Dahl also sought clarification on incentive comments, asking if expected improvements were solely due to the build-to-order mix or also market-level improvements, and inquired about the current absorption pace year-over-year. Sheryl Palmer stated that incentive improvement is not just from the to-be-built mix but also potential price increases, interest rate relief, and market discipline, while competitive pressure remains. She estimated Q1 pace might be slightly down year-over-year due to a strong Q1 last year, but community count growth would offset this.

Michael Dahl asked for a more quantitative understanding of the seasonal improvement in pace dynamics observed from Q4 into January and February, given the recent market volatility. He also sought clarification on whether the expected improvement in incentives beyond Q1 is solely a function of the build-to-order mix or if it also reflects broader market-level incentive improvements, and inquired about the year-over-year absorption pace.

Answer

Sheryl Palmer (Chairman and CEO, Taylor Morrison) noted that December was better than November (unusual), and January was better than December (expected), despite significant weather events, indicating positive momentum. She stated that incentive improvement is not solely due to the build-to-order mix but also potential market traction, interest rate relief, and market discipline. Sheryl Palmer believed Q1 absorption pace might be slightly down year-over-year but would be offset by community count growth.

Michael Dahl followed up on the Q2 gross margin step-down, asking how much is from incentives already seen versus anticipated, and sought clarification on the April sales pace.

Answer

Curt VanHyfte, CFO, attributed the Q2 margin decline to a higher penetration of spec homes requiring more incentives, a mix of lower-margin townhomes, and the pull-forward of some high-margin closings into Q1. Sheryl Palmer, Chairman and CEO, clarified that April's sales pace has been choppy and is expected to be close to the Q1 average, a deviation from the typical seasonal peak, due to macroeconomic volatility.

Michael Dahl of RBC Capital Markets questioned how the company is implementing base price increases while also guiding for margin moderation due to incentives. He also asked for clarification on the quarterly margin trajectory and any observed impacts from immigration issues on labor.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Sheryl Palmer clarified that margin pressure is primarily in the first-time buyer segment, and the company uses cost-effective tools like its 'Build Secura Flex' program to protect margins. She also reported no labor disruptions on job sites from immigration issues. Chief Financial Officer Curt VanHyfte confirmed the full-year margin guidance of 23-24% but declined to provide specific quarterly guidance beyond Q1, reiterating an expectation of moderation.

Michael Dahl requested more specific details on the October sales pace and asked if the company was gauging any shifts in consumer sentiment regarding the desirability of living in coastal Florida markets following recent hurricanes.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Sheryl Palmer described the October sales trajectory as pleasing, especially considering storm-related disruptions, and highlighted the advantage of their to-be-built offerings. Chief Corporate Operations Officer Erik Heuser addressed market desirability by citing research showing Florida's population growth historically remains strong post-storm. He also noted their homes' superior construction and location away from immediate coastlines, with Sheryl Palmer confirming they remain bullish on Florida.

Michael Dahl asked for more detail on Masco's plumbing guidance, which implies volumes down low single digits for 2026 compared to closer to flat at the end of 2025, seeking insight into changes in volume expectations. He also questioned the confidence in the Decorative Architectural segment achieving flat volumes in 2026, given volumes were down for a couple of years, without assuming significant improvements in existing home sales.

Answer

CFO Richard Westenberg confirmed the plumbing volume expectation of down low single digits for 2026, largely a continuation of 2025 trends, but expressed cautious optimism for improvement through investments. CEO John Nuti explained that Decorative Architectural volumes will benefit from easier comps in 2026 due to challenging prior-year factors like the Q4 2024 inventory build and primer/applicator exclusivity. He emphasized focusing on controllable factors like brand building, value messaging, and strong alignment with The Home Depot to drive execution and better trends, even without a market rebound.

Michael Dahl asked for more detail on tariff exposure in regions outside of China, such as Mexico and Southeast Asia, and inquired about the extent to which products from Mexico are exempt under the USMCA. He also sought to confirm that the newly outlined net tariff impact is entirely incremental to the company's previous guidance.

Answer

CFO Richard Westenberg confirmed that China represents the vast majority of the tariff exposure, as evidenced by the $625 million of the $675 million annualized impact. He noted a meaningful import exposure from Mexico, principally for the Watkins Wellness business, but stated the vast majority of these products qualify for USMCA exemption. Westenberg also confirmed that the newly detailed tariff impacts are incremental to the guidance provided in February, which had only factored in the pre-existing 10% China tariff.

Michael Dahl followed up on incentives, asking if the 9.9% for Q4 2025 implied an exit rate in the low double-digits and if 'remaining elevated' referred to that exit rate or average levels. He also questioned the catalyst for the ICG divestiture decision and if it represents a philosophical view against vertical integration.

Answer

Jim Zeumer, Head of Investor Relations, declined to provide a precise exit rate but confirmed it was likely higher than 9.9% due to price discounts on spec inventory. He reiterated the expectation to lean into forward commitments and competitive pricing, all contributing to the 24.5-25% margin guide. Regarding ICG, Mr. Zeumer cited COVID-era supply chain challenges, other suppliers' greater scale, and a capital allocation decision, confirming it's a philosophical view on resource allocation.

Mike Dahl of RBC Capital Markets requested a more precise quantification of the year-over-year sales pace in April and the monthly order cadence during Q1. He also sought clarity on whether management's reference to "exciting opportunities" hinted at a land market reset or potential M&A.

Answer

CEO Ryan Marshall declined to provide a daily or monthly sales breakdown but stated the updated full-year volume guidance was the quantification of the impact from Q1 trends and April's volatility. He clarified that "exciting opportunities" does not imply a major land market reset but rather the potential to acquire land from less-capitalized builders who may walk away from deals in a choppy market.

Michael Dahl followed up on margin dynamics, asking if the Q4 mix headwind was greater than previously expected or if the change from prior guidance was primarily due to higher incentives. He also requested quantification of incentive levels for entry-level homes.

Answer

EVP and CFO Robert O'Shaughnessy confirmed the primary driver is the challenging affordability equation, which necessitates higher incentives to turn assets, though a slightly higher mix of Western business is also a factor. He declined to parse incentive levels by buyer segment, stating that while the entry-level segment feels affordability pressures most, it's a challenge for all consumers.

Michael Dahl questioned KB Home's willingness to tolerate a lower sales pace to enforce the Built-to-Order (BTO) shift, asking for sales pace statistics on newer BTO-focused communities versus spec communities. He also inquired about the impairment process and the assumptions required to trigger larger charges, given the low single-digit operating margins in Q1 guidance.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Jeffrey Mezger stated the company aims for at least four sales per month per community, noting Q4's seasonally adjusted pace met this. He emphasized supporting sales with BTO to ensure known margins. Regarding impairments, Jeffrey Mezger and EVP and CFO Robert Dillard described a rigorous, community-by-community process, indicating a significant gap before major charges. They clarified that half of the recent $14 million charge was for abandonments, not margin-related impairments, and recent charges were due to specific, isolated issues.

Michael Dahl questioned KB Home's strategy regarding sales pace and the built-to-order (BTO) shift, asking if the company would tolerate a lower pace to prioritize BTO or pivot back to spec if demand falters. He also inquired about the impairment process and the conditions that would trigger larger charges, given the low Q1 operating margin guidance.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Jeffrey Mezger stated the intent to support sales with BTO, aiming for an average of four sales per month per community, preferring known BTO margins over speculative inventory. Mezger and EVP and CFO Robert Dillard detailed a rigorous, community-by-community impairment process, noting a significant gap before major charges. They clarified that half of Q4's impairment was due to abandonments, and specific charges in Colorado were related to changing housing requirements.

Michael Dahl asked for more specifics on recent demand dynamics, including the monthly sales pace cadence and September's tracking, given the company's comments on stable demand. He also questioned the timing of the shift to built-to-order, its reliance on a demand inflection in 2026, and how the strategy would adapt if mortgage rates do not provide the expected relief.

Answer

Jeffrey Mezger, Chairman, President & CEO, confirmed that demand was consistent through Q3, with June being the best month, and stable into the first two weeks of September. He explained that while backlog will be down, it aligns with reduced build times, positioning for similar pull-throughs. He emphasized that the BTO shift is a cultural focus, and the company is not expecting a 'trough,' with spring selling season dictating second-half 2026 performance.

Michael Dahl pressed for more detail on gross margins, asking about the typical seasonal uplift from higher volume and questioning why assuming a stable environment is the right base case given recent market volatility and competitor actions.

Answer

COO Rob McGibney reiterated that quarter-over-quarter margin improvement is mostly from leverage, with underlying per-home margins expected to be relatively flat. CEO Jeffrey Mezger defended the guidance by stating they are pleased with the current sales pace, which is approaching normal levels for Q2. He asserted that the actions taken are working and are fully reflected in the current guidance, making them 'pretty comfortable' with their position.

Michael Dahl challenged the assumption of flat incentives for the year, given that incentives rose, demand slowed late in Q4, and the new year started slowly. He also sought confirmation on the full-year sales pace assumption.

Answer

EVP and CFO Jeff Kaminski responded that the guidance represents their best assessment based on current conditions, backlog margins, and cost expectations, acknowledging market volatility. He noted the guidance range accounts for this uncertainty. Regarding sales pace, he reiterated that the company will have better visibility for the full year after the critical spring selling season concludes.

Michael Dahl asked about leveraging Trilogy's revenue management system with existing shop tenants, the extent of its current utilization across the portfolio, examples of how it's driving better results, and if these benefits are reflected in current numbers. He also inquired about the receptiveness of operators to the system, the difficulty of implementation, and the expected timeframe.

Answer

COO Gabe Willhite highlighted a unique incentive plan with Trilogy (AHR stock for compensation) that aligns their interests with supporting other shop operators. He stated that the system is in pilot phases with operators, and current numbers do not yet fully reflect its benefits. The platform will expand beyond revenue management to sales, marketing, SEO, employee training, IT solutions, and leveraging Trilogy's development capabilities for existing building expansions. Gabe noted that while operators are good and may be reluctant to be told what to do, they are receptive to Trilogy's demonstrated success and support for scaling. CEO Danny Prosky added that Trilogy's continuous learning and growth benefits the entire operator base.

Michael Dahl asked about the current utilization of Trilogy's revenue management system across American Healthcare REIT's SHOP tenants, examples of how it's driving results, and the receptiveness and implementation timeline for rolling out this system to other operators.

Answer

COO Gabe Willhite stated that the company is in pilot phases with operators for Trilogy's platform, which offers assessment tools and dashboard capabilities, and expects an outsized impact over the next 12-24 months across various areas beyond revenue management, including sales, marketing, and IT solutions. He emphasized that Trilogy's development capabilities are also leveraged for portfolio expansions. Regarding receptiveness, COO Gabe Willhite noted that while good operators can be reluctant, Trilogy's operator-to-operator approach helps, especially for scaling regional partners. CEO Danny Prosky added that Trilogy's continuous evolution benefits the entire operator base, with receptiveness varying among partners.

Michael Dahl of RBC Capital Markets questioned how GMS is balancing single-family market share gains against potential margin pressure from builders and asked for a breakdown of the drivers for the long-term 10-12% EBITDA margin target.

Answer

President & CEO John Turner explained that GMS leverages its scale, service proposition, and expanded offerings from acquisitions to partner with builders. He stated the 10-12% EBITDA margin goal is roughly half dependent on a volume recovery and half on structural improvements, including cost savings and a richer product mix.

Michael Dahl questioned the guidance for Ceilings, suggesting the math implied a significant acceleration in organic volume declines. He also asked for more detail on the gross margin bridge, specifically the split between price/cost and mix, and clarification on the temporary nature of the unrealized manufacturer rebate issue.

Answer

CEO John Turner corrected the interpretation, stating they expect organic Ceilings volumes to be down low single digits, not high single digits. CFO Scott Deakin clarified the margin impact, noting that price/cost dynamics accounted for roughly two-thirds of the 60 basis point headwind. He explained the rebate shortfall was due to lower-than-expected purchase volumes during the calendar year program and that the company does not expect to make up the difference, affecting the accrual for the quarter.

Michael Dahl from RBC Capital Markets requested more detail on the second-half delivery plan, given that backlog doesn't fully cover the target, and asked about the current backlog gross margin.

Answer

CFO Martin Connor detailed that of the 6,400 homes needed to hit the midpoint, 4,500 will come from backlog and 1,900 from spec inventory, where cost risk is limited. Executive Douglas Yearley added there's a conservative buffer of additional specs that could deliver. Regarding margins, Mr. Yearley explained that build-to-order margins run several hundred basis points above the company average while spec margins are below, a spread that has recently widened but still blends to the guided figure.

Michael Dahl requested quantification of quarter-to-date order trends and the Q2 outlook, and also asked for an update on the margin spread between spec and build-to-order homes.

Answer

Executive Chairman Douglas Yearley stated the company believes it can achieve 3,000 net contracts in Q2. He also confirmed that spec home margins are running about 200-250 basis points below build-to-order homes. He provided context on incentives, noting they fell from $68k in Q4'24 to $62k in Q1'25 and started Q2 at $55k, with the understanding that some of this improvement may be given back in certain markets.

Michael Dahl of RBC Capital Markets requested more detail on the near-term volume cadence for residential and commercial markets and asked how fixed costs are affecting decremental margins.

Answer

CFO Michael Miller stated that volume headwinds in both single-family and multifamily residential markets are expected to persist through 2025. In commercial, he highlighted strong performance in heavy commercial (up over 14%) but noted weakness in light commercial (down over 10%). He explained that with roughly 10% of the cost structure being fixed and 15% being lagging variable, unexpected volume declines create significant pressure on decremental margins, as was evident in the quarter.

Michael Dahl asked about the cadence of spray foam pricing during Q3 and if the impact in Q4 would be similar. He also inquired about the scale of the internal distribution investments in Q4 and 2025.

Answer

CEO Jeffrey Edwards confirmed the fourth-quarter impact from spray foam pricing would be similar to the third quarter. Regarding distribution investments, he stated that while costs will slowly increase as more sourcing points are added, there will not be a significant incremental ramp. He noted this would lift G&A but should be offset by savings in cost of goods sold.

Michael Dahl asked about the impact of non-tariff input costs, specifically how lower oil and natural gas prices might affect Roofing and Insulation margins.

Answer

CEO Brian Chambers explained that asphalt prices have somewhat disconnected from WTI oil due to refining dynamics and low inventories, though low oil could moderate future inflation. CFO Todd Fister added that since natural gas is hedged, any benefit from lower prices would materialize in the back half of 2025 and into 2026, with the impact not expected to be large.

Michael Dahl from RBC Capital Markets asked for more detail on the Roofing segment's Q4 outlook, requesting quantification of manufacturing costs and an update on input costs, as well as a view on how margins could trend in 2025.

Answer

CEO Brian Chambers noted that while manufacturing costs will be higher, strong operational execution continues to drive robust margins. He described the input cost environment as stable, resulting in a positive price/cost dynamic. For 2025, he indicated the setup is favorable for maintaining strong margins, supported by expectations of a strong market, high demand for OC products, and a solid components business.

Michael Dahl of RBC Capital Markets pressed for details on the significant downward revision to Q2 EBITDA expectations, asking for an updated market outlook. He also sought clarification on the company's revolver covenants and borrowing capacity as credit metrics deteriorate.

Answer

CFO Samantha Stoddard attributed the revised Q2 outlook to a wider range of potential outcomes driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and a more muted sales pickup than previously anticipated. She declined to provide a specific guidance range. Regarding liquidity, Stoddard reiterated that the company's debt instruments, including the revolver, do not have restrictive covenants. She stated JELD-WEN is well-positioned with an undrawn $500 million credit line and proceeds from the Towanda divestiture, and foresees no issues even if a draw on the revolver becomes necessary.

Michael Dahl sought clarification on the components of the $50 million cost headwind if it excludes tariffs. He also questioned the EBITDA bridge, noting the large amount of headwinds being offset, and asked for more detail on the wide range for corporate costs.

Answer

CEO Bill Christensen clarified the $50 million headwind is from standard inflation in freight, labor, and materials, not tariffs. He reaffirmed the EBITDA bridge, attributing headwinds to the Towanda divestiture and market weakness, which require significant cost actions to offset. CFO Samantha Stoddard specified that the corporate cost increase includes a $15-$20 million headwind from the reinstatement of variable compensation.

Michael Dahl of RBC Capital Markets pressed for clarity on the 2025 volume outlook, asking if 'flat to down' referred to pure volume or a combined volume/mix. He also challenged whether the transformation savings were truly structural or just normal rightsizing, questioning why rebound incrementals wouldn't be higher than 25-30%.

Answer

CFO Samantha Stoddard clarified the 'flat to down' 2025 outlook refers to combined volume and mix. CEO William Christensen defended the transformation as a structural change involving process rigor, capital discipline, and footprint optimization to create fewer, better-invested sites. He attributed current margin pressure to capacity utilization challenges as plants drop from two shifts to one, which the transformation aims to solve long-term.

Michael Dahl sought clarification on channel inventories, noting other reports of pre-buying. He also questioned the path to year-over-year earnings growth, given typical seasonality and current market weakness.

Answer

CEO Jeff Lorberbaum clarified his earlier comment, stating he assumes all industry participants, like Mohawk, increased inventories of imported products ahead of tariffs. Executive James Brunk outlined the path to potential earnings growth (ex-ERP impact), citing ~$70 million in remaining restructuring savings, additional productivity, lower interest costs, and potential FX tailwinds, though he stressed this depends on macroeconomic stabilization.

Michael Dahl asked for a breakdown of the $25-$30 million Q1 operating income impact from the Flooring North America system issue, seeking to separate one-time costs from lost sales. He also questioned if the company could achieve year-over-year earnings growth in Q2 2025.

Answer

CFO James Brunk clarified the system issue impact, attributing $15-$20 million to extraordinary costs and estimating a sales impact of $25-$50 million for the quarter. CEO Jeff Lorberbaum stated that for the full year, absent the system issue, they expect a slight improvement in earnings. Brunk added that Q2 should see normal historical seasonality off of an adjusted Q1 baseline.

Michael Dahl from RBC Capital Markets sought clarification on the gross margin outlook, asking for a more precise definition of margins 'drifting lower' through the year. He also questioned the capital allocation strategy, noting that pro forma leverage appears to be above the target range.

Answer

CFO Pete Beckmann explained that excluding multifamily, single-family margins are expected to be relatively flat to slightly down. He noted the company is in the last leg of multifamily margin normalization. Regarding capital allocation, both Beckmann and CEO Peter Jackson reiterated their commitment to a 1-2x leverage target by year-end, acknowledging the current level is a point-in-time figure influenced by seasonal borrowing and recent deployments.

Michael Dahl followed up on gross margins, asking about the progression from the Q1 implied margin to the full-year guide, and questioned the nature of competitive dynamics, asking if the company was focusing more on holding market share.

Answer

CFO Pete Beckmann explained that Q1 margins are seasonally lower and reflect continued normalization in multifamily and competitive pressures. CEO Peter Jackson elaborated that the industry has seen 'waves of normalization' post-COVID, and the company is now focused on finding a price-versus-share equilibrium in all product categories to protect its position.

Michael Dahl asked for a breakdown of the drivers behind the Q3 gross margin outperformance and the improved Q4 outlook. He also questioned the 2025 scenarios, noting the starts outlook seems more optimistic than builder commentary and asking for the key assumptions behind the revenue forecast, such as digital sales and M&A carryover.

Answer

CFO Designate Pete Beckmann attributed the Q3 margin strength to productivity gains and favorable product mix, which offset multifamily normalization. For 2025, CEO Designate Peter Jackson clarified that the company's outlook is based on broader economist forecasts for housing starts, not individual builder commentary. He confirmed the scenarios include assumptions for M&A carryover, productivity, and market share gains from digital and install services, adding that the average cost per start has stabilized.

Michael Dahl asked for clarification on the change in gross margin guidance from 'up' to 'similar' year-over-year and questioned the 'flattish' outlook for new residential construction given signs of market softening.

Answer

Executive Vice President John Guthrie explained the flatter margin guidance reflects slightly weaker price realization early in the year and persistent freight cost pressures. CEO Doug Black addressed the residential outlook, acknowledging mixed feedback from builders but stating that overall demand feels flattish, supported by low housing inventory. He conceded there is high uncertainty but noted the company has not yet seen a significant downturn in this segment.

Chris, on behalf of Michael Dahl from RBC Capital Markets, asked for the expected quarterly cadence of pricing changes in 2025 and for the volume growth outlook for the first half versus the second half of the year.

Answer

Executive John Guthrie provided a pricing cadence outlook, expecting overall price deflation of around -2% in Q1, improving to -1% in Q2, and turning slightly positive in the second half. Regarding volume, he stated they do not expect a measurable difference between the halves and are not planning for a major economic recovery, though Q1 could be impacted by a tough prior-year comparison.

Michael Dahl questioned the performance of the Pioneer acquisition a year post-close, noting it appeared slower and more costly than anticipated. He also asked for early insights into the macroeconomic end-market dynamics for 2025.

Answer

CEO Doug Black acknowledged the integration was slower but explained it was an intentional decision to merge Pioneer's superior bulk POS and delivery systems with SiteOne's, which took longer but offers greater long-term value. He remains confident in the deal's potential. He declined to provide a 2025 forecast, citing market uncertainty, but noted general optimism among customers and suppliers.

Michael Dahl of RBC Capital Markets sought confirmation on the Q2 North American outlook, clarifying if 'similar' to Q1 implied a low-6% margin, and questioned the decision to maintain full-year guidance given consumer weakness and other pressures.

Answer

James Peters (executive) confirmed the interpretation, expecting a Q2 similar to Q1's ~6.2% margin, with a build to the 8.5%-8.75% range in the second half. Marc Bitzer (executive) defended the guidance, stating it relies on controllable factors like cost actions, pricing, and new products, not an improved market. He also cited the significant potential tailwind from tariffs as a source of confidence.

Michael Dahl followed up on tariff dynamics, asking for the percentage of COGS from Mexico and how potential import load-ins are factored into guidance. He also sought clarification on the net cash impact of the India transaction considering the deconsolidation of existing cash.

Answer

CEO Marc Bitzer reiterated that over 80% of U.S. sales are from U.S. production, with the rest split between Mexico and China, a profile very different from competitors. Potential import load-ins are not factored into guidance. CFO Jim Peters confirmed the math on the India transaction, explaining that while ~$300M in cash will be deconsolidated, that cash was never accessible for corporate debt paydown. Therefore, the $550-600M in proceeds represents new, usable cash for debt reduction.

Michael Dahl sought to bridge the gap between the improved full-year tax rate guidance and the reaffirmed EPS and EBIT guidance. He also requested an update on the company's cash balance, specifically the amount held in the U.S. and the accessibility of foreign cash.

Answer

CFO Jim Peters clarified that holding the guidance steady was due to rounding on the 'approximately 6%' EBIT target and an unexpected non-cash impact from the EMEA stake. He reaffirmed that Q4 margin improvement will come from cost actions and better factory absorption. Regarding cash, Peters stated the geographic split is similar to Q2, with U.S. cash used to pay down commercial paper. While some international cash is harder to repatriate, it is being reinvested for growth. CEO Marc Bitzer added that the U.S. cash balance will significantly increase in Q4 due to seasonal cash flow generation.

Michael Dahl sought clarification on whether the 7.3% incentive level was for March orders or the full quarter and how it trended into April. He also questioned the full-year margin guidance, which implies a significant drop to around 20% in the second half, asking for the key drivers behind this decline.

Answer

CEO Douglas Bauer confirmed the 7.3% incentive figure was for March orders and remained consistent into April. CFO Glenn Keeler acknowledged the math, explaining the implied 20% gross margin for the back half is driven by two main factors: higher lot costs as newer communities replace older, high-margin ones, and the full-year impact of the current elevated incentive levels.

Michael Dahl questioned the characterization of early 2025 sales pace as 'encouraging,' noting that the reported absorption rates for January and February imply a significant year-over-year decline. He sought to confirm if the company was consciously choosing to accept a lower pace to protect margins, given current incentive levels.

Answer

CFO Glenn Keeler clarified the pace improvement was relative to Q4 2024, acknowledging the tough year-over-year comparison. President and COO Tom Mitchell added that the company is strategically planning for a lower absorption pace of around 3.0 homes per month in 2025, compared to 3.5 historically, to enhance margins. CEO Douglas Bauer confirmed this trade-off is intentional, stating the incremental incentives needed to drive higher pace are not worth the margin sacrifice in the current market.

Michael Dahl inquired how the strategic decision to delay community openings would impact Q4 pace and incentive strategies. He also asked if the move was a reaction to competitive inventory pressures and whether the delayed openings were concentrated in specific regions.

Answer

CEO Douglas Bauer stated that Q4 incentives might be slightly higher to move existing inventory but are expected to be lower on the new communities opening in the spring. He asserted that Tri Pointe's premium brand allows it to compete effectively even in choppier markets like Austin. CFO Glenn Keeler and Bauer clarified the delays were minor timing shifts (e.g., from December to January) and were spread across various markets, not concentrated in weaker ones.

Michael Dahl of RBC Capital Markets asked about the strategic plan for the downstream businesses included in recent acquisitions and how they are reflected in the 2025 guidance.

Answer

CEO Tom Hill stated that the company will evaluate all newly acquired assets; those that fit strategically and earn appropriate returns will be kept, while others may be divested. CFO Mary Andrews Carlisle clarified that the 2025 guidance assumes full ownership, with the acquisitions contributing approximately $150 million in EBITDA, split about 60% to the Aggregates segment and 40% to downstream businesses.

Michael Dahl followed up on the Wake Stone acquisition, asking about its historical pricing strategy and the expected cash outlay required to close the transaction.

Answer

Chairman and CEO James Hill stated that it was premature to comment on Wake Stone's pricing strategy, as the deal has not yet closed and it represents a new market for Vulcan. He also noted that the company does not typically disclose purchase prices for acquisitions that are not considered material. He concluded by reiterating his excitement for the deal's strategic fit.

Michael Dahl of RBC Capital Markets asked for the current percentage of U.S. sales from captive retail and the company's long-term target for that mix. He also requested a breakdown of the factors driving the Q3 gross margin upside and the subsequent guide down for Q4.

Answer

CEO Tim Larson reported that captive retail constitutes 35% of U.S. sales. He clarified there is no specific long-term target mix, as the strategy is to deploy the right channel mix on a market-by-market basis. CFO Laurie Hough explained that while lower input costs contributed to the Q3 margin beat, the company would not provide a detailed public breakdown. She reiterated the 26% to 27% gross margin guidance for Q4, noting it is based on expected product mix and cost dynamics but does not include potential future tariff impacts.

Requested quantification of various moving parts in Q1 and Q2, including inventory load-ins, new distribution ramps, and retail transitions. Also asked about potential near-term business disruption from recent events on the West Coast.

Answer

The net impact of retail transitions is neutral. The Q1 beat was driven by strong sell-through, with the rest of the growth from planned inventory staging. The Q2 guide reflects a normalized growth rate. The company's geographic diversification means it does not expect a meaningful impact from regional disruptions.

Michael Dahl sought more detail on the company's confidence in a stable municipal pricing environment, given contrary industry commentary, and asked for context on the growth opportunity from water treatment plant initiatives.

Answer

CEO Steve LeClair clarified that their view of 'stable pricing' is based on the entire project bill of materials, not just PVC pipe, which is less than 15% of sales. He noted they are already receiving 2025 price increase notifications for other product categories. Regarding water treatment, he described it as a long-cycle business with a substantial project pipeline built over the last decade.

Michael Dahl requested a breakout of price stability between commodity and non-commodity products and asked for more insight into whether project delays are deferrals or cancellations, seeking confidence that the business is still available.

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CFO Mark Witkowski detailed that while steel pipe prices declined, they have stabilized, and this was offset by increases in copper and stability in municipal PVC, resulting in a stable overall environment. CEO Stephen LeClair added that residential projects are being phased and non-residential is choppy due to financing, but strong DOT work provides a partial offset, viewing most delays as temporary.

Michael Dahl inquired about the assumptions behind the preliminary 2025 guidance, asking if it reflects the status quo or anticipates market improvement. He also sought details on the expected community count ramp-up and a quantification of the projected increase in lot costs for 2025.

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CFO Russ Devendorf clarified that the 2025 outlook assumes a market status quo. He projected a 15% increase in community count for 2025, with most growth occurring in the second half of the year. Devendorf stated that lot costs, which were approximately $85,000 in Q3 2024, are expected to increase by another $10,000 to $12,000 in 2025.

Michael Dahl sought clarification on the Flo sales pipeline calculation and asked about the company's current cost of goods exposure to China and total non-U.S. sourcing amid potential tariff changes.

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CEO Nicholas Fink clarified the $160M Flo pipeline is a conservative estimate based on a 5% conversion of contracts already signed, noting that mandated contracts will have a much higher conversion rate. Regarding sourcing, CFO David Barry stated that COGS from China is down to less than 25% from over 50% in 2018, with 40-50% of total COGS now U.S.-based. Fink added that the company has a flexible, dual-source supply chain and a team actively planning for potential tariff increases, viewing it as a competitive advantage.

Asked for clarification on recent OpEx actions, questioning if they were temporary headcount reductions or more structural changes, and what other programmatic actions are planned to lower the OpEx ratio towards the company's target next year.

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The Q3 actions were a 'reset' due to lower-than-anticipated demand, affecting both field and corporate roles. While growth requires more people, the company is focused on productivity. For 2025, they expect structural margin help from synergy realization and maturing greenfields. They will also be more cautious about adding costs ahead of demand.

Requested a more detailed bridge to the 2024 guidance, asking for the specific contributions from Argos versus legacy Summit and a quantification of dyssynergies. He also questioned if the implied legacy Summit growth was conservative.

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The guidance reflects a combined effort, with the $30 million in synergies primarily benefiting the legacy Argos assets. Both base businesses are expected to grow in the high single-digit range. The company confirmed the guidance is conservative on volume and, importantly, does not include any potential mid-year price increases for the legacy Summit business, which represents a source of potential upside.