Michael Lavery

Michael Lavery asked about the margin benefits of the La Regina acquisition, specifically whether they would be realized at 49% ownership or only upon full consolidation, and what implications the deal has for Rao's top-line momentum as the brand continues to grow.

Answer

CEO Mick Beekhuizen stated that Rao's is expected to maintain a mid to high single-digit consumption growth trajectory. CFO Todd Cunfer clarified that due to the call option, 100% of La Regina's P&L will be consolidated, providing the full gross margin impact, with 51% of earnings backed out via a minority interest line. He added that this provides more flexibility for investment in the brand, including A&C.

Michael Lavery asked how Campbell's has balanced macroeconomic risks, such as a potential recession, within its fiscal 2025 guidance and how the portfolio is positioned for a downturn. He also requested a definitive clarification on the treatment of the 53rd week in the company's organic sales guidance versus other reported metrics.

Answer

CEO Mark Clouse stated that the guidance range of 0-2% organic growth is prudent and does not assume a rapid consumer recovery, noting the consumer remains 'fragile.' He asserted the portfolio is well-positioned for a tougher environment due to its value-oriented meal brands and historically resilient snacks. CFO Carrie Anderson and CEO Mark Clouse clarified that the 53rd week's benefit is excluded from the organic net sales growth guidance but is included in the guidance for reported net sales, adjusted EBIT, and adjusted EPS.

Michael Lavery asked for a deeper dive into Hormel's fiscal 2026 guidance, seeking key puts and takes, and followed up on the portfolio reshaping initiative, inquiring if it's an ongoing process or largely complete.

Answer

Interim CEO Jeff Ettinger detailed top-line drivers (1-4% organic net sales growth, pricing actions, enhanced marketing) and bottom-line factors (4-10% adjusted operating income growth, pricing flow-through, mix improvement, T&M benefits, restructuring savings, pork cost relief). President John Ghingo confirmed portfolio reshaping is an ongoing strategic effort focused on growth and simplification, citing recent exits like Justin's.

Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler inquired about the detailed breakdown of Hormel Foods' fiscal 2026 guidance, seeking further insights into key puts and takes, cost expectations, and the ongoing impact of Transform and Modernize (T&M) initiatives and administrative savings. He also asked for an assessment of the portfolio reshaping efforts, including recent announcements like the Justin's business partnership and private label exits, and whether more such reviews are anticipated.

Answer

Interim CEO Jeff Ettinger outlined the 1%-4% organic net sales growth driven by momentum, pricing actions, and enhanced marketing. He detailed bottom-line improvements from pricing flow-through, mix improvement, T&M benefits, restructuring savings, and expected pork cost relief. President John Ghingo clarified that portfolio reshaping is an ongoing strategic effort focused on building around growth ambitions, simplifying operations, and ensuring the best ownership for brands, citing the Justin's partnership as an example of streamlining for sustainable profitable growth.

Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler Companies asked for the latest thinking on the three-year plan's T&M savings and EBIT goals for 2026. He also sought clarification on foodservice pressures and the timing of benefits from new pricing actions.

Answer

CFO Jacinth Smiley stated that original 2026 targets are under review as key assumptions about costs and consumer sentiment have not materialized. President John Ghingo clarified that any new pricing actions would largely impact 2026 and that recent foodservice margin pressure was partly due to soft traffic in the convenience store channel, while a prior non-core pressure was related to the Hormel Health Labs divestiture.

Michael Lavery questioned the drivers behind the expected second-half margin expansion after a weak first half and asked how Foodservice could achieve mid-single-digit growth amid a tough industry backdrop.

Answer

CFO Jacinth Smiley attributed the expected margin expansion to benefits from Turkey pricing, Planters' performance, the value-added business, and accelerating Transform & Modernize (T&M) initiative savings. CEO Jim Snee explained that Foodservice is positioned to outperform the industry due to strong top-line momentum, an innovation pipeline, improvements in the Planters C-store business, and favorable year-over-year comparisons.

Michael Lavery asked for a breakdown of price/mix versus volume, noting that price/mix was at a multi-quarter high in Q1 even before new turkey pricing. He questioned how high price/mix could go and what the corresponding volume expectations should be, given the strong pricing environment.

Answer

CEO James Snee attributed the strong price/mix to the strength of the entire value-added portfolio, with the recovery of the accretive Planters brand being a key driver. EVP John Ghingo added that Q1 volumes were also impacted by lapping prior-year pricing in the center-store portfolio, an effect that will fade. Ghingo stated that despite pricing, Q1 retail volume was fairly flat, and the company expects to hold and grow both volume and sales going forward.

Michael Lavery asked for more clarity on how to bucket the savings drivers for the T&M initiative, noting they seem to fall under the same umbrella. He also inquired about the evolution of the Planters distribution situation and whether slotting fees are now required for shelf restoration.

Answer

CEO Jim Snee reiterated that T&M benefits will accelerate into 2026 and are not fully realized by the end of 2025. Regarding Planters, Snee acknowledged some minor distribution losses occurred after the prior call. EVP of Retail John Ghingo clarified that most of the recovery involves refilling shelf gaps without slotting fees, and while some longer-term efforts may require investment, it is not a major factor in their plan.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler & Co. asked for clarification on the 'commercial impact' from the Planters disruption, specifically if it could lead to distribution losses into fiscal 2025. He also inquired about the large implied capital expenditure for Q4, given the annual guidance was maintained.

Answer

CEO James Snee explained the 'commercial impact' refers to missed sales, confirming no distribution losses have occurred yet as they work to manage inventory and ramp up production. CFO Jacinth Smiley addressed the CapEx question, stating that a significant spend in Q4 is consistent with the company's typical annual sequencing and they remain comfortable with the full-year target of $280 million.

Michael Lavery asked for a breakdown of the key moving parts in the pet segment, including the cadence of private label cuts, distribution losses, and the Nutrich brand reset, and when these impacts are expected to be fully lapped. He also sought clarification on cereal price gaps, the rationality of pricing, and why the company isn't seeing more benefit from trading down.

Answer

CFO and Treasurer Matt Mainer stated that profit-enhancing decisions from fiscal 2025 were fully lapped by the end of the year. He noted that private label business losses would not be lapped until mid-fiscal 2026, expecting down mid-to-high single-digit volumes in the first half, then flat to slight growth in the second half as Nutrich relaunches and private label losses are lapped. President and CEO Rob Vitale attributed cereal dynamics to competitive pressure and promotional activities, noting that private label offerings have been less competitive.

Michael Lavery asked for a breakdown of the key moving parts in the pet segment, including the cadence of private label cuts, distribution losses, and the Nutrich brand reset, and when these impacts are expected to be fully lapped. He also sought clarification on cereal price gaps, the rationality of pricing, and why the company isn't seeing more benefit from trading down.

Answer

CFO and Treasurer Matt Mainer stated that profit-enhancing decisions from fiscal 2025 were fully lapped by the end of the year. He noted that private label business losses would not be lapped until mid-fiscal 2026, expecting down mid-to-high single-digit volumes in the first half, then flat to slight growth in the second half as Nutrich relaunches and private label losses are lapped. President and CEO Rob Vitale attributed cereal dynamics to competitive pressure and promotional activities, noting that private label offerings have been less competitive.

Michael Lavery asked about Post's current appetite for M&A, any challenges in the market, and the assumptions underpinning the Foodservice segment's normalized quarterly EBITDA run rate, including the contribution from its shake business.

Answer

President and CEO Rob Vitale stated that while the M&A environment is challenged by uncertainty from tariffs and ingredient regulations, Post remains open to transactions of all sizes. He also highlighted that share buybacks are an attractive alternative given current market valuations. COO Jeff Zadoks clarified that the Foodservice run rate of $115 million is a current, point-in-time estimate and that the contribution from the shake business is still modest but represents a future tailwind.

Michael Lavery sought to understand the magnitude of savings from the announced cereal plant closures, asking if the $20 million figure is net or gross of deleveraging impacts. He also asked how a cautious consumer and trade-down behavior would affect the pet food business.

Answer

An executive clarified the $20 million in savings is a gross figure, which would be offset by any incremental volume deleveraging. CEO Rob Vitale added that FY'26 planning is in early stages. COO Jeff Zadoks explained that a consumer trade-down would generally favor their pet food portfolio, which is skewed toward lower price points, particularly in dry dog food.

Michael Lavery asked about the key factors to watch for the second-half recovery in Foodservice, sought more detail on distribution gains in eggs and potatoes, and requested an update on the ready-to-drink shakes business.

Answer

COO Jeff Zadoks identified the return of Post's egg supply and the timing of pricing actions as key to the Foodservice recovery. He explained that distribution gains are driven by converting customers to labor-saving liquid and precooked products. On ready-to-drink shakes, he noted progress has been slow and the business's contribution remains minimal.

Michael Lavery asked about the potential savings, efficiencies, and timing related to the network optimization of the pet food business following the Perfection Pet Foods acquisition. He also inquired about the potential runway and timeline for Weetabix's margin recovery.

Answer

President and CEO Rob Vitale explained that network optimization for the pet business is ongoing, with the Perfection acquisition providing key access to Western manufacturing. Initial benefits are factored into FY25 guidance, with more significant gains expected in FY26. CFO Matt Mainer described the Weetabix margin recovery as a 'multi-year journey' back towards 30%, driven by cost-out initiatives, though the FY25 ERP conversion will create near-term pressure.

Michael Lavery questioned the expected impact of the Alani Nu transition on optimized warehouse and distribution, inventory levels, and potential Q4 disruptions, asking for more detail on the 'noise' and the possibility of a net drag.

Answer

CFO Jarrod Langhans indicated that Q4 would be 'noisy' with cash management activity and inventory builds for Alani Nu, advising to monitor scanner data. Chairman and CEO John Fieldly added that 'noise' includes increased costs from inventory returns, logistical movements, secondary warehousing, and unoptimized supply chain, which could pressure margins. Management aims for efficient management but cannot make firm predictions on net drag.

Michael Lavery asked for more specifics on the expected impact of Alani Nu's transition into PepsiCo's DSD network on optimized warehouse and distribution, inventory levels, and potential disruptions or a net drag in Q4 and into next year.

Answer

CFO Jarrod Langhans indicated Q4 would be 'noisy' due to cash management, inventory building for Alani, and movement during the rollout, advising to focus on scanner data for business health. CEO John Fieldly added that increased costs from returns, secondary warehousing, and the need to optimize supply chain, co-packing, and logistics would pressure margins, but firm predictions on net drag were not plausible yet.

Michael Lavery inquired about assortment optimization priorities and how the company manages its portfolio at retail given the two separate distribution networks for Celsius and Alani.

Answer

CEO John Fieldly explained that the company's sales organization manages top-tier accounts directly to ensure a cohesive strategy, while leveraging the distinct strengths of each distribution network. He emphasized that significant synergies in back-office functions like finance, operations, and revenue management allow for a holistic portfolio approach, despite the separate distribution logistics.

Michael Lavery asked for more color on the strong gross margin performance, questioning its sustainability and inquiring about any potential future headwinds like aluminum costs.

Answer

CFO Jarrod Langhans credited the margin strength to the company's scale and its 'orbit model' supply chain structure, stating they are in 'great shape' for the short term. While aluminum is not currently a significant concern, he noted uncertainty around future tariffs. He reiterated the full-year gross margin guidance of around 50% for the core business, citing unknowns in the back half of the year related to inflation and tariffs, but affirmed the supply chain is set up for long-term sustainability.

Michael Lavery asked for a diagnosis of Celsius's market share trends during 2024 and how the company plans to address them. He also asked for clarification on the new Subway distribution deal, specifically if it is an optional rollout for individual franchisees.

Answer

CEO John Fieldly attributed the share pressure, particularly in Q3, to broad category challenges and a flurry of new sugar-free competition from top players that drove trial. He expressed confidence that Celsius's brand positioning, loyal consumer base, and a strong 2025 innovation plan will address these trends. He did not directly clarify the franchisee-optional nature of the Subway rollout.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler inquired about expectations for 2025 shelf space resets and the competitive landscape, particularly concerning the Ghost and KDP partnership. He also asked about plans for deploying the company's large cash balance and whether more vertical integration acquisitions are anticipated.

Answer

CEO John Fieldly expressed confidence in gaining shelf space in 2025, citing positive retailer feedback. He viewed the KDP/Ghost deal as a market opportunity. CFO Jarrod Langhans explained that while the Big Beverages acquisition was a unique, high-ROI opportunity, the company is not looking to become a co-packer and remains committed to its asset-light 'orbit model' for its supply chain.

Michael Lavery asked why the company might not have been winning in the economy segment, what to expect for brands like High Life and Keystone, and how the goodwill impairment reflects the balance of past performance versus future outlook.

Answer

CEO Rahul Goyal explained that the economy portfolio is crucial given consumer pressure, and winning requires the right marketing, innovation, pricing, and regional focus for brands like High Life and Keystone. On goodwill, he stated it's a function of this year's performance, discount rates, and multiples, but also incorporates the outlook. CFO Tracey Joubert added that the Midwest premium's increase also impacted the outlook for costs.

Michael Lavery asked CEO Rahul Goyal about Molson Coors' strategy to 'win in economy' with brands like High Life and Keystone, inquiring why they haven't been winning and what changes to expect in innovation, price, or marketing. He also asked about the balance of backward-looking versus forward-looking factors influencing the goodwill impairment charge.

Answer

CEO Rahul Goyal emphasized the importance of the economy portfolio for pressured consumers and customers, stating that all factors—marketing, innovation, price, and regional focus—matter for these regionally strong brands. Regarding goodwill impairment, he explained it's a function of this year's performance, discount rates, multiples, and the outlook, with CFO Tracey Joubert adding that the rising Midwest premium also impacted the cost outlook.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler Companies requested a more detailed bridge for the updated EPS guidance, noting that the Midwest premium impact seems small and share buybacks are a partial offset, and asked what other factors were driving the reduction.

Answer

CFO Tracey Joubert identified several other factors influencing the EPS outlook. She pointed to the timing of marketing spend, which is expected to be higher in Q3, and noted that the EPS guidance is not on a constant currency basis, so foreign exchange rates have an impact. She also mentioned that the effective tax rate is another variable in the calculation.

Michael Lavery sought a deeper understanding of the Americas price/mix performance, asking if Fever-Tree costs impacted the top line and what the expected run rate for this metric should be.

Answer

CEO Gavin Hattersley clarified that the one-time Fever-Tree distributor transition costs were recorded in the MG&A line, not as a reduction to net sales. He explained that the 4.8% increase in Americas net sales per hectoliter was primarily driven by favorable mix from exiting lower-margin contract brewing and adding the high-margin Fever-Tree brand. He stated that he expects these positive mix benefits to continue throughout the year.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler asked about the impact of higher-ABV innovations on beer category volumes and inquired about the initial sell-in and shelf placement for new products and ZOA.

Answer

CEO Gavin Hattersley framed higher-ABV innovation as a net positive for the beer industry, enabling it to compete effectively with spirits-based RTDs. He highlighted new launches like Simply Spiked Bold and Blue Moon Extra that align with this trend. He also noted that a new Gen Z advisory panel was instrumental in developing 'Happy Thursday,' showcasing a targeted approach to innovation.

Michael Lavery asked for more details on the ZOA energy drink, questioning its small size in scanner data, its presence in unmeasured channels, and how execution might change now that Molson Coors holds a majority stake.

Answer

CEO Gavin Hattersley highlighted ZOA's position in the growing 'better-for-you' energy subsegment and its strong performance in unmeasured channels, noting it is a top 10 brand on Amazon. He stated that taking a majority stake allows Molson Coors to take ownership of marketing and sales development, which will be a 'big plus' for driving future growth and scale.

Michael Lavery asked about cocoa costs, specifically if the company could benefit from further price falls despite being decently committed with hedges for visibility and less volatility. He inquired about the range of possibilities, such as whether it could become deflationary. He also asked about portfolio pricing, specifically how the 75% of units priced under $4 looks after the latest pricing, and if $4 or $3 is the key threshold.

Answer

SVP and CFO Steve Voskuil confirmed the hedging program is unchanged, with normal levels of hedging. He believes cocoa has room to fall, and while the full year is currently seen as inflationary, there is potential for deflation through unhedged portions and downside participation, depending on timing and magnitude. CEO Kirk Tanner confirmed that approximately 75% of units remain below $4, emphasizing the importance of understanding consumer price points.

Michael Lavery asked about cocoa costs, specifically if Hershey could benefit from further price falls despite being decently committed with hedges for visibility and less volatility. He inquired about the range of possibilities, asking if Hershey is positioned such that cocoa wouldn't be deflationary or to what extent deflationary impacts are possible. He also asked about the portfolio's pricing, specifically how the 75% of units below $4 threshold looks after the latest pricing, and if the $3 threshold from other snack peers is a key focus point.

Answer

Senior Vice President and CFO Steve Voskuil confirmed the fundamental hedging program is unchanged, with normal hedging levels. He believes cocoa has room to fall and, while forecasting full-year inflation, noted the possibility of deflation due to unhedged portions and downside participation in the program. President and CEO Kirk Tanner confirmed that approximately 75% of Hershey's units remain below $4, emphasizing the importance of understanding consumer price points, and that this largely holds true today.

Michael Lavery asked what cocoa coverage assumptions are embedded in the 2026 gross margin recovery outlook and inquired about tariff mitigation plans beyond potential pricing actions.

Answer

SVP & CFO Steve Voskuil declined to give specifics on 2026 coverage but confirmed they expect cocoa to remain inflationary next year. For tariff mitigation, he stated the current focus is on supply chain optimization, leveraging manufacturing and sourcing flexibility, rather than on pricing.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler asked about the cocoa coverage assumptions embedded in the 2026 gross margin outlook and inquired about non-pricing levers for tariff mitigation, such as supply chain adjustments.

Answer

SVP & CFO Steve Voskuil noted that while Hershey's hedging policy is unchanged, the company is still expecting cocoa to be inflationary in 2026 based on current hedges. For tariff mitigation, he said the current focus is on supply chain optimization, leveraging manufacturing agility, cross-border opportunities, and insourcing/outsourcing decisions to manage exposure.

Michael Lavery asked about the cocoa coverage assumptions embedded in the 2026 gross margin recovery outlook and inquired about tariff mitigation plans beyond pricing, such as supply chain adjustments.

Answer

SVP & CFO Steve Voskuil stated that while Hershey is following its hedging policy, it is still expecting inflationary cocoa costs in 2026 based on current information. For tariff mitigation, he said the current focus is on supply chain optimization, leveraging the company's agile network, cross-border opportunities, and manufacturing footprint to manage exposure before considering other levers like pricing.

Michael Lavery asked for examples of 'demand shaping' and 'sourcing strategies' for 2026 mitigation and inquired about Hershey's scale ambitions in salty snacks to potentially dilute cocoa exposure.

Answer

CEO Michele Buck described demand shaping as focusing on portfolio mix (sweets, salty) and sourcing strategies as finding new ways to procure materials for price advantages. She reiterated the vision to be a 'snacking powerhouse,' using M&A like Lesser Evil to expand into on-trend white spaces and reach new consumers.

Michael Scott Lavery asked about Vita Coco's capital allocation strategy, given its cash balance over $200 million and existing share buyback authorization, and how the company thinks about the use of cash, including M&A. He also inquired about Vita Coco Treats, asking if it's incremental to the portfolio, acts as a gateway for new consumers to the coconut water category, and if there's any observed interplay with the core business.

Answer

Martin Roper, Chief Executive Officer, stated that capital allocation priorities remain unchanged: growth of the core business (including inventory build), innovation, and prudent M&A. He added that if excess cash remains, it would be applied to share buybacks at fair stock prices. Mike Kirban, Co-founder and Executive Chairman, confirmed that Vita Coco Treats is attracting new consumers to the brand without cannibalization, with the hope that they transition to the original pure coconut water. Mr. Roper noted that Treats are reported in 'other' on a shipment basis and are expected to see further distribution gains next year, including potential entry into Walmart.

Michael Scott Lavery inquired about The Vita Coco Company's capital allocation strategy, specifically regarding the growing cash balance of over $200 million, the role of share buybacks, and the company's approach to M&A given past inactivity.

Answer

CEO Martin Roper stated that capital allocation priorities remain unchanged: core business growth (including inventory build), innovation, and M&A. He emphasized that share buybacks would be considered for excess cash at fair stock prices, but M&A is pursued prudently, not for its own sake. He also confirmed that Vita Coco Treats is attracting new consumers to the brand without cannibalization, with the hope of them transitioning to original coconut water, and clarified its reporting in 'other' for shipments.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler inquired about the company's ocean freight strategy, asking why they remain exposed to spot rates rather than contracting for 2026. He also asked about the drivers behind the momentum and ACV gains in the convenience store channel.

Answer

CEO Martin Roper explained that the company has minimal forward coverage on freight because they believe long-term rates will trend downward, and they are comfortable managing the short-term volatility of the spot market. Regarding convenience stores, Roper stated that while they are pleased with ACV gains, progress is methodical due to the channel's fragmented nature. He noted that strong velocities and successful placements, like the 1-liter SKU in 7-Eleven, are strengthening their selling story to other retailers.

Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler inquired about the company's supply chain flexibility to adjust sourcing in response to potential reciprocal tariffs and asked for an update on the Walmart situation, including the outlook for restoring lost SKUs.

Answer

CEO Martin Roper and Executive Chairman Michael Kirban detailed their sourcing advantages, noting their strong presence in the Philippines and Brazil would be beneficial under proposed reciprocal tariffs. While adding new factory lines takes 12-24 months, they can reallocate supply between international and U.S. markets in 4-6 months. Regarding Walmart, Kirban expressed high confidence in restoring lost distribution and believes the retailer will become a growth engine again, citing improving sales trends and planned summer promotions.

Michael Lavery asked for details on the marketing pivot towards 'active hydration,' including whether new packaging or shelf placements were being considered. He also requested clarification on the potential tariff impact, specifically the portfolio percentage from co-packers in Mexico and Canada.

Answer

Executive Michael Kirban described the hydration focus as a return to the brand's roots, emphasizing communication through digital and social channels about coconut water's natural electrolytes. He stated no packaging changes are planned. Regarding tariffs, Kirban and CEO Martin Roper clarified that production from co-packers in Canada and Mexico represents a very small percentage of the total and that production could be moved long-term if necessary.

Michael Lavery asked why competitors appeared better positioned on inventory during the supply crunch and questioned the strategy of using flex-rate shipping contracts. He also sought to understand the private label sales decline, specifically the split between the discontinued oil business and coconut water shortages.

Answer

CEO Martin Roper speculated that competitors started the period with higher inventory levels but are now beginning to show signs of strain. He explained the company is exploring firmer capacity commitments with carriers to improve supply chain resilience but finds current fixed-rate contracts too expensive. Management was reluctant to quantify the oil vs. water impact for a single customer but noted the bulk of the private label volume decline was driven by water.

Michael Lavery asked if the operational performance milestone for separation includes both businesses running on their respective algorithm targets. He also sought clarification on the pace of deleveraging, questioning if the updated 'half a turn a year' is conservative compared to previous projections.

Answer

CEO Tim Cofer confirmed that the expectation is for both KDP and JDE Peet's to continue performing at a high level, aligning with the transformational vision. SVP of Finance Jane Gelfand clarified that the original plan projected 5.6x net leverage at close (June 2026), now revised to 4.6x. She stated that the 'half a turn a year' deleveraging commitment is what investors should anchor to, emphasizing a focus on maximizing cash flow and accelerating deleveraging responsibly, without over-interpreting minor deltas from prior assumptions.

Michael Lavery asked if the operational performance milestone for separation includes both businesses running on their algorithm targets. He also sought clarification on the pace of deleveraging, specifically the 'half a turn a year' target versus previous projections.

Answer

CEO Tim Cofer confirmed the expectation for high-level performance at both Keurig Dr Pepper and JDE Peet's, emphasizing launching new companies from a position of strength. SVP of Finance Jane Gelfand clarified that the new plan targets 4.6x leverage at close (June 2026) compared to the original 5.6x, and reiterated a commitment to maximize cash flow and achieve a deleveraging pace of about half a turn per year, advising not to over-interpret specific numbers but to anchor to the commitment.

Michael Lavery inquired about the drivers behind the improved momentum and share performance of the Pepsi brand, particularly in the U.S. He asked whether this was primarily due to changes in messaging, increased marketing, or other factors. He also sought clarification on PepsiCo's approach to optimizing marketing spend, specifically whether it involves cuts or a focus on greater efficiency.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Ramon Laguarta attributed Pepsi's success to its relaunch a year and a half ago in the U.S. and internationally, noting strong momentum in many markets. Internationally, non-sugar variants (Zero Sugar, Max) are key drivers. In the U.S., focus on away-from-home and food occasions, culturally relevant messaging, and increased marketing investment are contributing factors. He highlighted zero sugar and flavors (white cherry, cream) as platforms attracting younger consumers. Laguarta mentioned future growth layers with Munch and You, Baja Blast ($1 billion retail value), and the new Dirty Dew platform. He also discussed the critical relaunch of Gatorade, focusing on value and marketing superior hydration with proven electrolyte combinations.

Michael Lavery inquired about the drivers behind the improved momentum and share performance of the Pepsi brand in the U.S., asking if it was due to changing messaging, increased marketing, or more efficient marketing spend, and how to interpret the language around optimizing marketing ROI.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Ramon Laguarta attributed Pepsi's success to its relaunch, momentum in many markets (especially non-sugar internationally), and in the U.S., a focus on away-from-home and food desserts, linking the brand to meal occasions, and increased marketing investment. He highlighted zero sugar and flavors (white cherry, cream) as key growth platforms bringing in younger consumers. He also mentioned future plans for Mountain Dew (Baja Blast, Dirty Dew) and Gatorade's relaunch focusing on superior hydration and value.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler Companies requested insights into the key drivers of the strong performance in the international business and asked about any potential watch-outs or opportunities for further acceleration in the second half of the year.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Ramon Laguarta attributed the success to sustained investment in both food and beverages, which are seeing mid-single-digit growth. He highlighted strength in Latin America, Europe, and the Middle East, with double-digit growth in India, while noting softness in China. He emphasized that the international business is now margin-accretive for PepsiCo.

Michael Lavery sought to further clarify the guidance change, asking if the steady top-line outlook, despite macro and Frito weakness, is due to offsets from international strength. He also asked if the tariff outlook is based only on current estimates, implying potential upside if conditions improve.

Answer

EVP and CFO Jamie Caulfield confirmed that momentum in the international business is a key reason for reiterating the top-line guidance. He stated that the normalized Q1 growth rate is right in the middle of the low-single-digit guide. On tariffs, he affirmed the guidance is based on what is known today and that while various scenarios have been run, the company would not get into piecemeal analysis.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler requested more clarity on the 'infrastructure' investments made in Frito-Lay, which were funded by one-time gains. He also asked for the company's A&M spending outlook for 2025 as a percentage of sales.

Answer

An executive stated that A&M spending as a percentage of sales is expected to be 'pretty consistent' in 2025. CEO Ramon Laguarta elaborated that the infrastructure investments are focused on long-term portfolio evolution, specifically building out platforms for portion control, permissible snacks (e.g., with new ingredients like legumes), and the away-from-home channel, which requires upfront capital.

Michael Lavery asked about the categories and brands driving household penetration gains in North America Retail, the factors contributing to this improvement (pricing vs. innovation), and followed up on the benefits of improved demand planning through AI and technology.

Answer

Dana McNabb, Group President of North America Retail and North America Pet, confirmed household penetration growth for NAR, the first since fiscal 2022, driven by bars, fruit snacks, salty snacks, and cereal. She attributed this to improved price value and remarkability, citing Cinnamon Toast Crunch as an example. Jeff Harmening, Chairman and CEO, explained that AI and technology in demand planning free up marketing teams for demand generation and supply chain teams for execution, leading to better accuracy, efficiency, and waste elimination.

Michael Lavery inquired about the specific categories and brands that drove household penetration gains, the breadth of these gains, and the relative impact of pricing adjustments versus innovation. He also asked for elaboration on improvements in demand planning, its benefits, and the surprising unhelpfulness of human touch.

Answer

Group President Dana McNabb identified bars, fruit snacks, salty snacks, and cereal as categories with penetration improvement, attributing it to improved price value and 'remarkability' (advertising, innovation, product quality). Chairman & CEO Jeffrey Harmening explained that leveraging AI and technology for forecasting frees up marketing teams for demand generation and supply chain for efficiency, leading to better accuracy and waste elimination.

Michael Lavery asked which categories or brands drove General Mills' household penetration gains, how broad these gains were, and the extent to which they were driven by pricing adjustments versus innovation or other factors. He also sought elaboration on improvements in demand planning, the role of AI/technology, and the benefits derived.

Answer

Dana McNabb, Group President of North America Retail and North America Pet, confirmed household penetration growth for NAR, driven by bars, fruit snacks, salty snacks, and cereal. She attributed this to improved price value (getting below key cliffs) and strong remarkability efforts, including advertising and new product innovation, citing Cinnamon Toast Crunch as an example. Jeff Harmening, Chairman and CEO, explained that AI and technology are enabling more efficient and accurate forecasting, freeing up marketing teams for demand generation and supply chain teams for operational focus, leading to improved waste elimination.

Michael Lavery asked how the company balances organic innovation versus M&A for growth, using the fresh pet launch as an example. He also asked how the Salty Snacks portfolio fits into the company's strategy for improvement.

Answer

CEO Jeffrey Harmening explained that the company pursues organic growth when it has the 'right to win' with its brand equity and capabilities, turning to M&A when it needs to enter a new category. Group President Dana McNabb addressed Salty Snacks, acknowledging a tough year but outlining a robust plan to improve performance through flavor renovations, spicy innovations like a Tabasco partnership, and new value-sized formats.

Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler Companies asked how the company evaluates organic innovation versus M&A for entering a new category like fresh pet, and how the Salty Snacks business fits into the strategy for broad-based improvement.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Jeffrey Harmening explained their evaluation process, noting that for fresh pet, they believe they have the right to win organically with the Blue Buffalo brand and the right capabilities with their refrigerated network. Group President Dana McNabb addressed Salty Snacks, acknowledging a tough year but outlining a robust plan for fiscal 2026 focused on bold flavors, new spicy items, a Tabasco partnership, and new value-sized formats to improve performance.

Michael Lavery inquired about the methodology for determining correct price adjustments, using dough and Totino's as examples, and asked how the company knows its planned fiscal '26 investments will be sufficient. He also asked if the portfolio-wide value assessment is now complete.

Answer

CEO Jeffrey Harmening clarified that the goal is to get pricing into the right 'zone' to allow marketing and innovation to be effective, not just to cut prices. He confirmed the formal valuation exercise is complete across the company but stressed that it is an 'always on' capability, as the competitive environment is dynamic and requires agility.

Michael Lavery focused on the company's value and price gap strategy, asking how management determines the 'right' price adjustments and how they gain confidence that the planned investments for fiscal '26 will be sufficient to drive growth.

Answer

CEO Jeffrey Harmening clarified that the goal is not a 'race to the bottom' on price but getting into the right 'zone' where marketing and innovation can be effective. He explained that the company uses a category-by-category analysis and has confidence based on successful execution with billion-dollar brands like Blue Buffalo, Totino's, and Pillsbury. He confirmed this evaluation is complete and is an 'always on' capability.

Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler asked about the drivers behind the strong price/mix lift in Prepared Foods, seeking to understand the contribution from mix versus price and the momentum of these factors.

Answer

Group President Brady Stewart confirmed the lift was a combination of favorable channel and product mix, driven by strong retail brands, as well as pricing to cover raw material inflation. President & CEO Donnie King emphasized that consumers are prioritizing protein and praised the Prepared Foods team's execution on both operations and mix shift, stating there is more upside on their multi-year improvement journey.

Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler asked about the drivers of resilient consumer demand for beef despite rising prices. He also inquired about the company's exposure to SNAP benefit recipients and any potential risks from changes to the program.

Answer

CFO Curt Calaway explained that beef demand is supported by the value offered in the grinds complex, allowing consumers to trade down from more expensive cuts. CEO Donnie King addressed SNAP by noting a broader trend of prioritizing protein in such programs, but did not provide specific financial exposure data, instead highlighting that overall U.S. meat sales are at an all-time high.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler asked for an explanation of the drivers behind the strong chicken margins, the sustainability of operational improvements, and the specific process changes that led to improved order fill rates.

Answer

Wes Morris, Group President of Poultry, credited the performance to foundational improvements and winning with customers, citing a record order fill rate of over 98% and a successful mix shift to value-added products. CEO Donnie King added that the improved fill rates stem from a strategic focus on supply and operations planning (S&OP), leading to better demand forecasting and scheduling.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler & Co. sought to reconcile differing data points on chicken supply growth and asked for the specific amount of plant start-up costs in the Prepared Foods segment that the company is now lapping.

Answer

CEO Donnie King addressed the chicken supply question by explaining that industry-wide challenges in hatch and livability are preventing higher egg sets from fully translating into increased chicken production. He then quantified the fiscal 2024 plant start-up costs in Prepared Foods at approximately $20 million.

Michael Lavery asked about the potential impact of Blue Buffalo's entry into the fresh pet food space and the strategic insight that prompted the evolution of Freshpet's advertising message.

Answer

CEO Billy Cyr framed new competition as a positive, stating that investment from major players like General Mills validates the category and helps grow overall consumer awareness, which ultimately benefits Freshpet. COO Nikki Beatty explained the advertising shift is a strategic move to build on their established emotional connection with pet owners by layering in a stronger message about the specific health benefits and superior ingredients of their products, a key interest area for their core MVP consumers.

Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler Companies asked about the potential impact of Blue Buffalo's entry into the fresh category and what consumer insights prompted the evolution of Freshpet's advertising message.

Answer

CEO Billy Cyr responded that new competition from major players like General Mills validates the fresh category and is expected to drive overall category growth, which will benefit Freshpet. COO Nikki Beatty explained the advertising shift was driven by the insight that consumers, particularly MVPs, were ready for the next layer of the brand story. The new ads will add strong health and ingredient credentials to the established emotional message of the pet-parent bond.

Michael Lavery asked what the company can do to increase the buy rate for the large cohort of non-MVP consumers and requested more detail on the new Sam's Club test.

Answer

President & Co-Founder Scott Morris responded that focusing on converting episodic, non-MVP users during uncertain economic times is a 'fool's errand' that would lead to discounting. Instead, the strategy is to build a strong core business with dedicated MVPs. Regarding Sam's Club, he described it as an encouraging test and part of a long-term trend where he expects Freshpet to eventually be available in nearly all retailers.

Michael Lavery asked for more detail on the Ennis facility's operational flexibility now that its fourth line is running, particularly regarding the ability to specialize lines for efficiency.

Answer

CEO William Cyr confirmed that having two bag lines and two roll lines is a 'big unlock' for efficiency, allowing one line to handle high-volume SKUs while the other manages complexity. He cautioned that while benefits are materializing, the Ennis facility's overall performance will lag the more mature Bethlehem site due to ongoing construction and expansion activities.

Michael Lavery requested more detail on the operational flexibility at the Ennis facility now that the fourth line is active, specifically asking if it has enabled greater production line specialization.

Answer

Executive William Cyr confirmed that having two bag lines and two roll lines is a 'big unlock' for efficiency, allowing one line to specialize in high-volume SKUs while the other handles more complexity. He noted that while Ennis is delivering these benefits, its overall efficiency will lag the mature Bethlehem site due to ongoing construction and new line startups.

Michael Lavery requested a detailed bridge for the updated financial outlook, considering changes from tariffs and portfolio reshaping. He also asked a follow-up about the specific drivers behind the company's improved marketing execution and recent award wins.

Answer

CFO Nelson Urdaneta bridged the outlook by highlighting business momentum, strong productivity, SG&A savings, and a lower net tariff impact. CEO Mike Hsu addressed the marketing question, attributing the success to building in-house capabilities, consolidating agencies, hiring top creative talent, and focusing on creating a stronger emotional connection with brands, which has improved both speed and creative quality.

Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler Companies asked for more detail on distribution gains, particularly in the Midwest, and the readiness of the company's infrastructure. He also inquired if recent packaging updates signal a broader change in brand architecture.

Answer

CEO Howard Friedman described the distribution gains as broad-based, occurring across expansion markets with support from national chains and various channels like club and dollar. He noted the company's hybrid DSD and direct-to-warehouse model provides the necessary infrastructure flexibility. Regarding packaging, he mentioned a cheese ball barrel refresh but stated that the company is currently pleased with its overall brand architecture.

Michael Lavery requested more details on the company's price pack architecture adjustments, including timing and potential margin impact. He also asked about the expectations and investment requirements for geographic distribution expansion.

Answer

CEO Howard Friedman explained that the price pack architecture strategy involves adding value with bonus bags and ensuring appropriate pack sizes across all price points and trade channels, including club stores. CFO Ajay Kataria confirmed that any margin impact from this mix is already factored into guidance. Regarding expansion, Friedman noted it will continue in key geographies like Texas and Michigan, supported by increased advertising to build consumer awareness rather than deep promotional spending.

Michael Lavery asked about the optimal balance between price and volume in the heightened promotional environment, specifically questioning the strategy for promoting Foundation Brands. He also requested an update on distribution progress and the role of DSD in securing new wins.

Answer

CEO Howard Friedman acknowledged the more promotional Q3 environment, noting it was in line with 2019 levels. He explained that Foundation Brands saw increased promotion due to price-pack architecture work to lower absolute price points. On distribution, he expressed confidence in continued gains and sufficient capacity, emphasizing the company's flexible hybrid model that can service customers via DSD or direct-to-warehouse as preferred.

Michael Lavery asked about the forward-looking expectations for non-branded and Partner Brands, and how much control the company has over them. He also inquired about the growth potential and white space opportunities for the On The Border brand, particularly with new flavored chips.

Answer

CEO Howard Friedman stated that the Dips & Salsa business will face near-term pressure before stabilizing, while Partner Brands are expected to naturally decline as the company's own brands grow. For On The Border, Friedman sees significant runway through distribution gains in expansion markets and innovation in the growing flavored tortilla chip segment, with potential for new formats in the long term.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler Companies asked a long-term question about the company's coffee strategy, inquiring what it might take to win globally given the performance of brands like Costa.

Answer

Chairman and CEO James Quincey acknowledged that coffee is an attractive category but admitted the Costa acquisition has not met its original investment hypothesis. Growth in ready-to-drink, Express, and at-home coffee has been slower than hoped. He stated the company is currently 'reflecting on what we've learned' and exploring new ways to grow in the coffee category.

Michael Lavery asked about marketing productivity and SG&A leverage, specifically how the company measures the effectiveness of more efficient ad development to ensure productivity gains are not reducing marketing impact.

Answer

President and CFO John Murphy explained that their approach is activity-driven rather than based on blunt cost-cutting. They focus on improving the efficiency of specific activities, such as optimizing the ratio of creative spend to media spend and using technology and sophisticated data for media planning to achieve the same or higher impact more efficiently.

Michael Lavery asked for an explanation of the Asia Pacific segment's performance, specifically the negative price/mix in Q4, which seemed to contradict share gains in higher-value markets like Japan and South Korea.

Answer

CEO James Quincey explained that the biggest factor in the Q4 Asia Pacific results was the cycling of the prior year's performance. He noted that the segment contains a mix of very developed and emerging markets, whose relative volume performances can create choppy price/mix results. He encouraged looking at the segment's price/mix over multiple quarters to get a clearer picture due to this base effect from 2023.

Michael Lavery asked about the potential impact of tariffs on the strategic review of the frozen business, the quantifiable magnitude of these tariffs if reinstated, and the company's contingency planning regarding debt covenants.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Keller stated that while the company does not comment on ongoing M&A, the Green Giant business is USMCA compliant, mitigating risk from Mexico and Canada. He identified the spices business, with sourcing from China and Southeast Asia, as the area with the most significant tariff risk. CFO Bruce Wacha added that any tariff impact on spices would likely be an industry-wide phenomenon, as competitors source from the same regions.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler & Co. followed up on top-line momentum, asking what specific factors would drive an inflection point in consumer behavior after a prolonged period of volume declines. He also asked about the company's contingency planning for potential tariffs on goods from Mexico.

Answer

CEO Casey Keller stated that the company is monitoring when it will begin to lap the negative consumption trends from the prior year, which is key to determining when the top line might stabilize. Regarding potential tariffs, CFO Bruce Wacha and CEO Casey Keller explained that while they are modeling scenarios, a tariff's impact could be partially offset by a weakening of the Mexican peso. They noted it is too early to speculate, and the current guidance reflects the status quo.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler asked about the nature of currency pressure in the Frozen and Vegetables segment, potential tariff risks, and the reason for the relatively wide EPS guidance range for the full year.

Answer

CFO Bruce Wacha clarified the currency pressure is transactional, stemming from the Mexican peso's impact on manufacturing costs, and declined to comment on tariffs. He explained the EPS guidance range directly reflects the high-to-low spread of the company's adjusted EBITDA guidance.

Michael Lavery asked about Hain's brand positioning in the 'approachable premium' space, a challenging middle ground, and questioned the company's fundamental 'right to win' across its diverse portfolio.

Answer

Interim CEO Alison Lewis explained the goal is not to be stuck in a price tier but to create brand value through innovation and marketing that justifies a premium price. Regarding the 'right to win,' Lewis and CFO Lee Boyce pointed to Hain's presence in attractive 'better-for-you' categories. They emphasized the need to accelerate innovation, build on bright spots like international growth, and elevate brand messaging to give consumers clear reasons to buy.

Michael Lavery asked for clarification on why snack sales declined despite mid-single-digit distribution gains. He also inquired about the expected response time for the new social media marketing approach and the potential savings from the new distribution center.

Answer

CEO Wendy Davidson clarified that the primary issue for snacks was weak on-shelf velocity, driven by ineffective marketing and promotion, rather than a lack of distribution. She expects social media impact to build over time, with promotions and distribution gains being the main near-term drivers. Regarding the new distribution center, she stated its main benefit is improved customer service and speed-to-shelf, with cost savings contributing to the overall Hain Reimagined margin goals.

Michael Lavery sought more color on the U.S. consumer, questioning the reasons for the decelerating retail sales momentum for both Oatly and the category. He followed up by asking how Oatly's outperformance, excluding SKU cuts, is translating into shelf space gains and competitive rationalization at retail.

Answer

Daniel Ordonez, Global President and COO, responded that Oatly's velocities and market shares remain strong despite a category undergoing a "paradigm shift." He emphasized the large untapped market, with 70% of U.S. consumers yet to try oat milk, as the company's primary focus. He confirmed that Oatly's strong performance is leading to expanded shelf space for its core drinks portfolio, particularly in the ambient section, as retailers recognize its robust execution.

Michael Lavery questioned the stability of the remaining business with Oatly's largest U.S. customer and inquired if the decision to discontinue a second plant in China signaled a change in market expectations there.

Answer

Global President and COO Daniel Ordonez expressed confidence in retaining business due to superior product quality feedback from baristas, while noting the company is reducing its exposure by aggressively growing with other customers. CEO Jean-Christophe Flatin affirmed that the China business is showing robust, profitable growth and that the company still sees significant opportunity there, highlighted by a planned 2025 entry into the club channel. The plant decision reflects a focus on optimizing the existing network.

Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler asked if the separate guidance for tariff headwinds implies that the company plans to absorb the costs rather than increase prices. He also requested more granular detail on Sun Cruiser's rollout, including the current mix of sales in measured channels and the timing of its summer distribution expansion.

Answer

CEO Michael Spillane described the tariff situation as 'evolving' and stated that the company is considering all options, including internal efficiencies and potential pricing actions, making the final strategy to be determined. CFO Diego Reynoso added that most of Sun Cruiser's volume to date has been in un-tracked channels, but he expects its presence in measured channels to grow significantly by mid-summer as national chain distribution triples in the coming months.

Michael Lavery questioned the tangible impact of cannabis on alcohol sales in key markets and asked if renegotiated aluminum contracts would be affected by potential tariffs.

Answer

CEO Michael Spillane and Founder and Chairman C. Koch addressed cannabis, stating they haven't seen a major impact yet but are prepared with their Canadian brand, TeaPot. Koch elaborated that hemp-derived THC beverages sold outside of dispensaries present a more serious long-term challenge. Regarding aluminum, Koch explained that while they have a pass-through for costs, any potential tariffs would represent a very small part of their overall cost structure.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler & Co. inquired about the factors influencing the Q4 volume outlook, including inventory levels and the pipeline fill for new products like Hard Mountain Dew and Sun Cruiser.

Answer

Founder and Chairman C. Koch explained that Q4 is the company's smallest quarter, making it highly sensitive to volume shifts. He noted that the timing of new product launches for Hard Mountain Dew and Sun Cruiser, along with slightly elevated wholesaler inventory levels, contribute to the wider guidance range for the quarter.

Michael Lavery asked about the capacity expansion strategy, questioning why the company is adding modules at existing locations in addition to the new Veracruz brewery and if Veracruz offers unique logistics savings.

Answer

CFO Garth Hankinson explained that the brewery footprint strategy is optimized for size, production complexity, and logistics costs. He clarified that Veracruz will be a relatively small part of the total footprint and will be specialized for long production runs of high-volume SKUs to maximize efficiency and offset any incremental logistics costs.

Michael Lavery sought clarification on the company's marketing plans, noting the mention of incremental spending while also reiterating the full-year target of 8.5% of beer sales. He asked what specifically is new or has changed.

Answer

CEO William Newlands explained that the company has decided to deploy a significant amount of additional investment against its brands, including Corona, Modelo Chelada, and Pacifico, which has already started with a heavy presence during football broadcasts. He clarified this is possible due to cost and operational efficiency initiatives delivering results beyond initial expectations, allowing them to 'double down' on marketing at a time when competitors may be pulling back.

Michael Lavery sought more detail on the rationale and potential costs of consolidating Tilray's beer distribution network. He also questioned the company's approach to increasing cannabis capacity while overall cannabis revenues had declined.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Irwin Simon explained that consolidating the beer distribution network aims to create significant efficiencies in freight, sales, and marketing. Regarding cannabis capacity, he clarified that the revenue decline was a result of strategic, margin-focused decisions and timing, not a lack of demand. He stated that capacity is being increased to support internal brands, international growth, and profitable wholesale opportunities, reinforcing their vertically integrated strategy.

Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler questioned the strategy behind launching four Delta-9 beverage brands simultaneously and how the company plans to ensure their sustainable growth. He also asked about the potential impact and timeline for integrating beer production to improve flexibility and margins.

Answer

CEO Irwin Simon explained that the multi-brand Delta-9 strategy leverages existing brand equity like '420' and 'Happy Flower' to create differentiation and meet strong distributor demand. Regarding beer integration, Simon detailed plans for SKU rationalization, focusing brands on key regional markets, and potentially consolidating facilities to optimize the manufacturing footprint and leverage increased buying power.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler asked if the success of Delta-9 beverages in non-legal states represents a market limitation and sought clarity on how the SKU rationalization impacts the full-year guidance.

Answer

CEO Irwin Simon identified large states like Texas, Florida, and Georgia as key opportunities for Delta-9 beverages, regardless of their adult-use status. He explained that while SKU rationalization will remove more sales, this was factored into planning and will be offset by the launch of new, higher-margin products during spring retail resets, though he acknowledged a potential lag.

Michael Lavery questioned the learnings from the company's pricing strategy shift from lowering to raising prices and asked if the SKU rationalization process is now complete.

Answer

CEO Ethan Brown explained that the current price increases on the premium Beyond IV platform showed encouraging elasticity, a better outcome than prior price cuts which were clouded by market noise. He clarified the strategy is nuanced, not a wholesale shift to a niche brand. He also confirmed that major SKU rationalization is complete, though minor trimming will continue as they selectively expand the portfolio.

Sought to better understand the supply dynamics, asking about sourcing from third parties in the EU, who has excess product, and whether Canopy had overcorrected its supply in Canada, potentially creating a new shortage for itself.

Answer

The supply constraints in Canada were due to performance issues with third-party suppliers, not an overcorrection of their own production. They are now making their Canadian supply chain more robust. The strategy to source from EU producers is a long-term, asset-light approach to optimize margins globally by freeing up Canadian supply for higher-margin channels, rather than making heavy capital investments in Europe.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler sought to better understand the supply dynamics, asking about the availability and cost of third-party EU-sourced products for the German market and whether Canopy had overcorrected its supply chain in Canada.

Answer

CEO David Klein clarified that Canadian supply constraints were due to third-party supplier performance, not an overcorrection, and that the company is making its supply chain more robust. Regarding Europe, he stated that product is available from both Canada and in-market producers. The strategy is to use EU suppliers over time to free up Canadian product and optimize margins globally, deploying an asset-light strategy to avoid heavy investments in a market likely to see future price compression.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler asked about the situation in Nigeria, inquiring about the sequential volume trends and when consumers might adjust to the significant price increases, allowing for a return to volume growth.

Answer

Chairman, President and CEO Steven Cahillane stated that the Nigerian joint venture saw a high-teens volume decline against a price/mix gain of over 40%, confirming that expected elasticities are materializing. Vice Chairman and CFO Amit Banati added that these elasticities were actually better than expected in Q2. While the company is being prudent in its forecast, they see potential upside as the pricing lands, but acknowledged the Nigerian consumer remains under tremendous strain.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler & Co. questioned where the expected second-half volume growth would originate, given the pressured consumer and strong private label momentum. He also asked for an update on the status of SKU rationalization in Latin America.

Answer

Chairman, President and CEO Steven Cahillane argued that since overall caloric consumption is stable, volume will shift to companies with the strongest brands and best commercial activation. He noted that consumer behaviors like waste reduction are now in the base. Vice Chairman and CFO Amit Banati added that the SKU rationalization initiatives in Latin America are now largely complete.

Asked about the change in the 2023 baseline operating margin, the drivers for accelerating the 15% margin target, the structure of the Transition Services Agreement (TSA), and how TSA reimbursements impact year-over-year EBIT growth calculations.

Answer

The 2023 baseline margin changed from 13% to 12% due to the formal discontinued operations accounting, which excludes TSA reimbursements for the first three quarters. The 15% margin target is accelerated by network optimization and other drivers. The TSA is mostly variable and has no markup; its impact on year-over-year growth is a timing issue, as 2024 includes four quarters of reimbursement versus only one in the 2023 recast base.

Asked for the order of magnitude of key margin drivers, quantification of costs from parallel operations during the spin, and for more color on consumer behavior, specifically the net effect of trading down from food away from home versus within packaged foods.

Answer

The two biggest gross margin drivers are pricing catching up to inflation and a better-performing supply chain, with recovery happening faster than expected. The parallel costs from Q3 are now behind them and are not considered a significant item to lap next year. On the consumer, they see strain but also resilience, with no meaningful shift to private label, and believe elasticities are at a 'high watermark'.

Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler asked for an overview of the pricing landscape and how the company is planning for it. He also questioned the company's ability to conduct traditional CPG-style market research to understand consumer brand perceptions beyond just potency.

Answer

Chief Transformation Officer Greg Butler stated that the company prudently plans for no pricing improvements in H2 and competes by driving efficiencies, using price pack architecture, and offering both value and premium innovation. He emphasized that owning retail provides superior consumer insights compared to traditional CPG research, allowing them to test products and understand shopper behavior directly.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler sought clarity on the flexibility of the Columbia Care deal structure, asking if options beyond the current framework were on the table. He also requested an outlook for second-half EBITDA margins, considering various operational puts and takes.

Answer

CEO Charles Bachtell emphasized that while the company is creative, the deal's success is fundamentally tied to its economics, specifically achieving the right ratio of cash from divestitures to combined debt. CFO Dennis Olis provided guidance for the second half of the year, stating the company is targeting a 50% gross margin and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20-plus percent.

Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler & Co. requested an update on price compression trends across states, asking if stabilization was occurring and how brand loyalty was developing within the portfolio.

Answer

President Anthony Georgiadis confirmed that price compression continues broadly, though Maryland saw some stabilization with its adult-use launch. Founder and CEO Ben Kovler added that while brand development is in its early stages, building resonant American brands is a core, long-term strategy to navigate market cycles and drive loyalty.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler asked for an assessment of the current industry landscape, including the impact of price compression and the potential catalysts for market rationalization or consolidation.

Answer

Founder and CEO Ben Kovler stated that while price compression is significant, it is coupled with high unit growth. He emphasized that Green Thumb is not pursuing large-scale M&A, citing the difficulty of integration. Instead, the company prefers to invest capital directly into its own assets, which he believes offers cheaper and more predictable returns than acquiring other businesses.

Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler asked about the development of brand equity, questioning how far the industry is from having brand strength, rather than just supply and demand, become a more consistent driver of pricing power.

Answer

CEO Ben Kovler explained that the industry is still in a nascent stage where the concept of national brands is new. He pointed to RYTHM and Incredibles as examples of brands building national distribution and trust, which already allows for state-by-state pricing power. He believes this trend will grow over time as brands invest in marketing and quality standards, but he could not provide a specific timeline for when brand equity will be the primary price driver.

Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler requested an update on capacity expansions and how they might impact performance in the second half of the year.

Answer

CFO Anthony Georgiadis confirmed recent expansions in PA, OH, NJ, and MD. He noted that significant growth from PA and MD depends on adult-use conversion, while near-term growth is expected from the upcoming adult-use launches in Rhode Island and Connecticut.