Michael Lewis

Michael Lewis of Truist Securities questioned the health of the New York office market in the context of Vornado's multi-decade low FAD per share in 2024 and asked for the current spread between in-place and market rents.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Steven Roth acknowledged the capital intensity of the business but stated he believes the company is at the bottom of the cash flow cycle and expects it to rise in a tightening market. Executive Glen Weiss expressed confidence that the portfolio's mark-to-market will be positive going forward but declined to predict a specific amount, citing quarter-to-quarter fluctuations.

Michael Lewis of Truist Securities highlighted the company's 2024 FAD per share being a multi-decade low and asked for context on this trend and whether an inflection point is near. He also asked about the spread between in-place and market rents for the New York office portfolio.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Steven Roth acknowledged the capital intensity of the business but stated his belief that the company is at the bottom of the cash flow cycle and expects it to rise in a tightening market. Executive Glen Weiss noted that mark-to-markets will be positive going forward, and Mr. Roth added that he expects market rents for assets like Penn 1 and Penn 2 to be 'very, very substantially higher' in the future.

Michael Lewis highlighted that 2024 FAD per share was a multi-decade low and asked if Vornado is at an inflection point for cash flow. He also asked for the current market rent spread compared to the in-place portfolio rent.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Steven Roth acknowledged the capital intensity of the business but stated his belief that Vornado is at the bottom of the cash flow cycle and expects it to rise in a tightening New York market. Regarding rents, Executive Vice President Glen Weiss confirmed mark-to-markets will be positive, and Roth predicted that rents at key Penn District assets will be "very substantially higher" in the future.

Michael Lewis from Truist Securities asked for the total square footage of 2024's known move-outs and how much has been backfilled. He also inquired about the stabilization plan for THE MART in Chicago and the value of remaining condos at 220 Central Park South.

Answer

Executive Glen Weiss stated that of the 1 million sq ft of expirations at 1290 Ave of the Americas and 280 Park, 51% has been addressed. President and CFO Michael Franco projected a 2-3 year timeline for THE MART to return to 90%+ occupancy and $90M-$100M in cash NOI. Chairman and CEO Steven Roth noted the remaining four condos at 220 Central Park South are 'much less valuable' than those recently sold.

Michael Lewis asked for the reason behind the continued delay in the New York City lease renewal and if there's any concern about the agencies potentially giving back space. He also requested a high-level breakdown of how the $75 million in pending cash rent is expected to come online, specifically the percentage by the end of the first half of 2026 versus the back half. Finally, he sought to reconcile the reported surge in office demand with broader economic trends like job layoffs and AI-driven changes.

Answer

Brent Smith, CEO, explained that the New York City lease delay is due to the involvement of multiple city agencies and departments. He expressed confidence in a renewal, citing the unique 'building within a building' space, limited competitive large blocks in lower Manhattan, and an $8 million annual holdover penalty as strong incentives. Sherry Rexroad, Chief Financial Officer, and Brent Smith clarified that approximately 70% of the $75 million annualized pending cash rent (split between $40 million yet to commence and $35 million in abatement) is expected to be realized in 2026, with a significant portion commencing or starting cash payments by mid-year. George Wells, Chief Operating Officer, and Brent Smith reconciled the strong leasing velocity with economic headwinds by highlighting the continued demand for upgraded, high-quality space for collaboration, Piedmont's diversified tenant base (less tech-dependent), and the compelling value proposition of their renovated assets compared to new construction.

Michael Lewis inquired about the reason for the continued delay in the New York City lease extension and any concerns regarding its expiration. He also asked for a high-level breakdown of how the $75 million in pending cash rent would flow online and sought to reconcile the reported surge in office demand with broader economic trends like job layoffs and AI impacts.

Answer

CEO Brent Smith explained that the New York City lease delay is due to the complex planning process involving multiple city agencies and departments. He expressed confidence in a renewal, citing the unique building fit, lack of competitive large blocks in lower Manhattan, and an $8 million annual holdover penalty. CFO Sherry Rexroad indicated that approximately 70% of the $75 million annualized pending cash rent is expected to commence within 2026, with most hitting in the middle of the year. Brent Smith added that roughly $26 million of the $40 million yet-to-commence leases and about 70% of the $35 million in abatement are expected to be realized in 2026. COO George Wells and CEO Brent Smith reconciled leasing demand with economic trends by highlighting Piedmont's focus on professional services (less tech-dependent), compelling amenity sets, and competitive pricing relative to new construction, which attracts firms seeking quality upgrades without premium new-build costs. They noted strong tour activity and proposals, with two-thirds for new space, indicating sustained demand despite layoff headlines.

Michael Lewis questioned the primary drivers behind the recent surge in leasing activity and the robust pipeline. He also asked about the strategy for timing non-core asset sales versus potential acquisitions, and whether the upcoming election could impact leasing in Washington D.C.

Answer

President and CEO Brent Smith attributed the leasing strength to a 'flight to quality,' where tenants move to better, well-capitalized properties, and increased decision-making from larger non-tech users amid return-to-office mandates. Regarding capital allocation, Smith explained the focus is on selling non-core assets to deleverage and position for accretive acquisitions in Sunbelt markets in 2025, noting that pricing for high-quality assets is beginning to stabilize. He concluded that the D.C. market will likely remain challenged regardless of the election outcome.

Michael Lewis asked about the lower $50 million acquisition guidance for 2026, the potential role of dispositions in achieving leverage targets, the impact on development starts, and the effects of the government shutdown on operations and agency stability.

Answer

Darrell Crate, President and CEO, clarified that the $50 million acquisition guidance is a low expectation to ensure 2-3% growth despite capital cost challenges, aiming for mean reversion. He noted that dispositions would require an interest rate kick for leverage reduction and that external partners might be used for development to meet lower leverage targets. Regarding the government shutdown, Mr. Crate stated it causes temporary slowdowns but no diminution in value or threat to mission-critical agencies, as leases are funded for six months plus.

Michael Lewis asked about the lower $50 million acquisition guidance for 2026 compared to historical levels, whether it reflects capital constraints, and the role of dispositions and development starts in achieving the company's leverage target. He also questioned the impact of government shutdowns on leasing delays and potential threats to agencies.

Answer

Darrell Crate, President and CEO, clarified that the $50 million acquisition guidance is a low expectation to ensure 2-3% growth despite capital costs, noting the company achieved nearly $200 million in acquisitions this year. He stated that dispositions would require interest rate changes to significantly impact leverage, and the company aims for lower leverage through development projects structured with external partners. Crate acknowledged shutdowns slow things down but do not threaten agencies or lease payments, which are funded for over six months.

Michael Lewis of Truist Securities questioned the significant quarterly decrease in G&A expense, its future run rate, and the new provision for credit losses. He also inquired about the strategic rationale for providing development loans with purchase options.

Answer

CFO Allison Marino explained the G&A decrease was due to a one-time recapture of forfeited equity awards from a voluntary resignation. Executive Lindsay Winterhalter stated the future G&A run rate is expected to be flat with no large severance costs. Allison Marino also noted the credit loss provision is an accounting estimate updated quarterly. Regarding development loans, Lindsay Winterhalter and CEO Darrell Crate described them as an attractive use of capital to provide liquidity to developers, with the intent of acquiring these assets for their portfolio at an attractive price.

Michael Lewis asked if Paramount has determined to move out of 1515 Broadway in 2031 or if a renewal is possible, and raised concerns about office real estate profitability given NOI margins, G&A as a percentage of revenue, and FAD potentially below the dividend.

Answer

Marc Holliday, Chairman and CEO, stated that no determination has been made by Paramount regarding their 2031 lease expiration, noting their recent acquisition by Skydance means definitive plans are unlikely yet. He highlighted 1515 Broadway's value, low debt, and flexibility for various uses. Regarding profitability, Marc Holliday explained that SL Green focuses on high net effective rents to ensure strong margins, monetizing FAD through profits from joint ventures and asset sales, which allows them to cover their dividend holistically.

Michael Lewis of Truist Securities asked about the future trajectory of capital expenditures, its impact on dividend coverage, and the expected pace of deployment for the new debt fund.

Answer

Steven Durels, an executive, projected that tenant improvement costs will decline as market leverage shifts to landlords. Matthew Diliberto, an executive, affirmed the dividend is covered and cautioned against using FAD as a coverage metric. Marc Holliday, Executive, stated they expect to deploy capital from the debt fund throughout the year into a robust pipeline of opportunities.

Michael Lewis of Truist Securities questioned why Summit One Vanderbilt's operating expenses exceeded its revenue in the quarter. He also asked for a bigger-picture view on the NYC recovery, wondering if it's a 'tide lifts all boats' scenario or still a battle, and if any aspects of the recovery are concerning.

Answer

Executive Matthew Diliberto clarified that the Summit's operating expenses appeared high because its annual percentage rent is paid in the third quarter, which is a normal seasonal trend. CEO Marc Holliday expressed confidence in the recovery, noting that a more rapid recovery could thin the opportunity set for distressed investments. He highlighted numerous positive signs, from full restaurants to the return to office, and pointed to major growth projects like the Times Square casino proposal as drivers of future value, stating he has less concern now than in 2020-2021.

Inquired about the timeline for the Stoughton asset redevelopment, the methodology for comparing share buybacks to acquisitions, potential near-term lease expirations, and the strategy to improve the company's cost of equity.

Answer

The Stoughton demolition will finish by year-end, with entitlement taking into 2026, a strategy chosen to maximize value. Share buybacks are weighed against acquisitions by considering the NAV discount versus the strategic benefits of portfolio growth. Upcoming lease expirations are minimal and mostly expected to renew. Management believes continued consistent execution and growth will lead to a better market valuation and cost of equity.

Michael Lewis from Truist Securities asked for details on the Stoughton asset, including the timeline for demolition and entitlement. He also questioned how the company measures the value of stock repurchases versus acquisitions, whether any near-term lease expirations could impact the 99% occupancy rate, and what the company needs to demonstrate to improve its cost of equity.

Answer

President and CEO Michael Seton detailed that the Stoughton demolition should be complete by year-end, with the entitlement process potentially extending into 2026. He explained that capital allocation is a balance between the economic advantage of buybacks and the strategic portfolio growth from acquisitions. On leasing, he noted that nearly all 2025 expirations are expected to renew and the company is optimistic about 2026 renewals, detailing only minor known vacancies. To improve the cost of equity, Seton stated that demonstrating consistency in execution over the next few quarters should lead to market recognition, highlighting the company's $360 million in capital capacity before needing to tap equity markets.

Michael Lewis from Truist Securities asked for the timeline on the Stoughton asset's demolition and entitlement process. He also questioned how the company measures the value of stock repurchases versus acquisitions, inquired about any near-term risks to the portfolio's high occupancy, and asked what Sila needs to demonstrate to improve its cost of equity.

Answer

President and CEO Michael Seton detailed that the Stoughton demolition will take 4-5 months and be completed by year-end, while entitlement may extend into 2026. He explained that capital allocation balances the economic accretion of buybacks with the strategic benefits of portfolio growth and diversification. On leasing, he noted strong renewal activity for 2025 and 2026 expirations with minimal expected vacancy. To improve its cost of equity, Mr. Seton stated the company aims to demonstrate consistency, execute its growth strategy, and leverage its significant liquidity, which allows for up to $360 million in activity before needing to raise capital.

Michael Lewis from Truist Securities asked about the timeline for the Stoughton asset's demolition and entitlement, the methodology for comparing stock repurchases against acquisitions, near-term lease expiration risks, and what the company needs to demonstrate to improve its cost of equity.

Answer

President and CEO Michael Seton stated the Stoughton building demolition should be complete by year-end, with the entitlement process potentially extending into 2026, a strategy chosen to reduce carry costs and maximize shareholder value. He explained that share buybacks are weighed against acquisitions by considering the economic accretion versus strategic benefits like portfolio growth and diversification, targeting a significant basis point disconnect. Seton confirmed minimal 2025 lease expiration risk and optimism for 2026 renewals. To improve its cost of equity, he believes demonstrating consistent performance, executing on its growth pipeline, and utilizing its capital capacity will earn market recognition.

Michael Lewis asked for the rationale behind Cortland excluding the remaining 10 assets from the deal. He also questioned if there were prior interested buyers for these assets, how being a motivated seller might impact their value, the timing of future distributions, and how lean the company's operations would become during the liquidation.

Answer

CEO Paul T. McDermott stated the board determined the current path was best for maximizing shareholder value and that a wider pool of bidders exists for one-off sales. CFO Steven Freishtat explained that future liquidating distributions are at the board's discretion following asset sales and that expected changes to operating expenses are already factored into the provided estimates. Further details were deferred to the proxy filing.

Michael Lewis of Truist Securities asked a long-term question about whether 'NIMBY' sentiment is rising in Southern markets, potentially creating higher barriers to entry for future supply.

Answer

President and CEO A. Bradley Hill confirmed this trend, stating there is 'definitely' strong pushback against multifamily development in certain Sunbelt municipalities. He cited examples of moratoriums and noted that entitlement processes can take 1-2 years or more, contradicting the misnomer that building in the Sunbelt is easy and quick.

Michael Lewis from Truist Securities questioned the durability of the expected 'multiyear cycle' of favorable supply-demand dynamics and asked about the impact of international migration on demand.

Answer

H. Bolton, CEO, argued that while supply may pick up by 2027-2029, it is unlikely to repeat the current 50-year high, ensuring a prolonged recovery. He also stated that immigration trends have a limited impact on MAA's portfolio, which serves a higher-income resident demographic ($80-85k average income) and is less exposed than lower price-point portfolios or certain coastal gateway markets. Brad Hill, EVP and President, added that historically low interest rates drove the current supply boom, a condition not expected to return.

Michael Lewis requested more details on the prospective new operator for the geriatric facilities, including whether rent and lease terms have been set. He also asked about the likelihood of recovering the reserved notes, the flexibility in timing for the acquisition pipeline, disposition cap rates, and expectations for core occupancy over the next 12-18 months.

Answer

EVP & CFO Bill Monroe described the potential new operator as having extensive experience in behavioral healthcare and geriatric psych, but noted that rent and lease terms are still under negotiation. He stated that a meaningful recovery on the reserved notes is not expected. President & CEO Dave Dupuy affirmed the company's commitment to closing on the pipeline assets, funded by capital recycling. He estimated disposition cap rates in the 7.5% to 8% range and expressed a goal of increasing portfolio occupancy by 100 basis points or more into 2026.

Michael Lewis of Truist Securities asked for details on the new operator for the geriatric facilities, the status of lease negotiations, the potential for recovery on the reserved notes, flexibility in the acquisition pipeline, and expectations for occupancy.

Answer

CFO Bill Monroe described the prospective new operator as experienced and well-resourced, though lease terms are still in negotiation. He indicated a meaningful recovery on the reserved notes is not expected. CEO Dave Dupuy affirmed the company's commitment to closing its acquisition pipeline, funded by asset sales with expected cap rates of 7.5-8%. He also expressed a goal of increasing portfolio occupancy by over 100 basis points into 2026.

Michael Lewis asked for a breakdown of the acquisitions expected to close in Q1 2025 and whether the annual acquisition target of $120-$150 million remains valid. He also questioned the dividend coverage from a pure cash flow perspective and inquired about the occupancy outlook for 2025.

Answer

Executive David Dupuy detailed the two properties totaling $33 million expected to close in Q1. He affirmed the $120-$150 million annual acquisition target is still fair, though the bar for deals is higher given the current share price. Dupuy expressed confidence in the dividend's coverage, citing future AFFO growth from resolving the geriatric tenant issue and returns from redevelopment projects. He expects occupancy to remain stable in the 91% to 93% range.

Michael Lewis asked about the recent decrease in occupancy, inquiring if the company collected material lease termination fees. He also questioned the drop in Lifepoint's tenant concentration and sought details on the company's disposition strategy, including asset types, potential cap rates, and the spread versus the cost of equity.

Answer

CEO David Dupuy explained the occupancy dip was related to one property where a lease termination was negotiated, which includes ongoing payments over four years. He clarified the Lifepoint concentration decreased because the operator entered a joint venture on one property. Regarding dispositions, Dupuy stated CHCT is exploring sales of both non-core assets and high-quality properties at attractive cap rates to fund growth without issuing equity at the current depressed share price.

Michael Lewis asked about the timing of free rent and concessions that could impact cash flow, the rationale for three initiated tenant move-outs, and the strategy for refinancing low-interest rate debt maturing next year.

Answer

President and CEO Colin Connolly attributed strong cash flow to a high-quality, young portfolio that requires less capital. EVP of Operations Richard Hickson explained the move-outs were strategic to gain early control of space for new prospects. EVP and CFO Gregg Adzema noted that while refinancing rates are a headwind, low leverage and strong organic growth have allowed the company to continue growing FFO.

Michael Lewis questioned the likelihood of a new development start in 2025, the economic viability of new construction, and the potential for knock-on demand in the Austin market following major tech company decisions.

Answer

President and CEO Michael Connolly stated that a speculative development start in 2025 is unlikely, though early-stage conversations with large tenants for 2028-2029 needs are beginning. He noted that the near-term priority remains acquisitions. Regarding Austin, he highlighted that submarkets differ, with the Domain submarket being nearly 100% leased and likely to see development opportunities sooner than the Downtown submarket, which has more supply to absorb.

Michael Lewis asked about the appetite from capital providers for recapitalizing Brandywine's development projects and questioned what strategic actions the company might consider given its historic discount to NAV.

Answer

Executive Vice President Jerry Sweeney stated that while the specific recapitalization strategy is evolving, the appetite for residential assets is strong. He mentioned key value drivers to address the NAV discount include delivering the $41 million of NOI from the development pipeline and capitalizing on limited new office supply to drive rents. He also noted that future development at Schuylkill Yards and Uptown ATX will be more mixed-use, with options like parcel sales or ground leases under consideration.

Michael Lewis of Truist Securities questioned why the company doesn't use its available liquidity to repay the high-cost preferred equity in its JVs sooner. He also asked about the outlook for the Austin portfolio, inquiring if its occupancy could be improved by a few large leases or if it faces a longer-term lease-up challenge.

Answer

Executive Jerry Sweeney confirmed that discussions with JV partners about an early recapitalization are ongoing and that they do not need to wait for stabilization to act. Regarding Austin, Sweeney and EVP of Operations George D. Johnstone noted the leasing pipeline has grown. While the Uptown ATX development targets larger tenants, the suburban assets will likely lease up through smaller deals. Sweeney also mentioned exploring a residential conversion for two underperforming buildings.

Michael Lewis asked for an update on the feasibility, process, and timeline for the residential conversions of two office properties mentioned in the supplemental. He also asked for management's perspective on the stock's decline, the guidance change related to land sales, and the overall state of the business and occupancy trends.

Answer

Executive Jerry Sweeney explained that the two residential conversions are progressing through design and local approval processes, which he believes they will pass. Regarding the business outlook, Mr. Sweeney stated that the market is improving with a flight to quality, he believes Brandywine's occupancy has troughed, and the company is well-positioned for growth despite the short-term guidance change from deferred land sales.

Michael Lewis sought a breakdown of the projected 200 basis point Q1 occupancy drop and asked about the trajectory of CapEx and dividend coverage, given it was not covered by FAD in the quarter. He also asked how far above market rents would need to be to justify a new development start.

Answer

Executive Brendan Maiorana detailed the occupancy drop, attributing it to specific large move-outs offset by signed leases commencing later in the year. He acknowledged CapEx will remain elevated due to high leasing volume, causing lumpy dividend coverage, but framed it as a positive indicator of future NOI growth. CEO Theodore Klinck estimated that new development would require rents 20-30% above the current market, which has deterred some potential build-to-suit clients.

Questioned the 25-year low in FAD per share, asking if the company is at an inflection point for cash flow to rebound. He also asked for the current market rent of the portfolio compared to the in-place rent of around $90 per square foot.

Answer

Management acknowledged the capital intensity of the business but stated they believe they are at the bottom of the cash flow cycle and expect it to increase as the New York market tightens. While not providing a specific number, they expressed confidence that future mark-to-markets will be positive and that rents in key assets like the Penn District will be substantially higher in the future.

Asked for specifics on the square footage of known 2024 move-outs, the recovery plan for THE MART in Chicago, and the value of the remaining condo units at 220 Central Park South.

Answer

Of the roughly 1 million sq ft of major expirations at 1290 Ave of Americas and 280 Park, about 51% has been addressed. THE MART's recovery to stabilized occupancy in the 90% range is expected to take 2-3 years due to a challenging Chicago market. The remaining four condo units at 220 Central Park South are smaller, lower, and much less valuable than those recently sold, with the project considered 'basically sold out'.

Michael Lewis questioned the strategic rationale behind capping market exposure at 10% of NOI, asking if it implies that no single market is structurally superior long-term, or if it reflects a broad opportunity set across all markets.

Answer

Executive Vice Chairman D. Keith Oden clarified that the strategy is about achieving balance and consistent cash flow across their 15 strong markets, not a negative commentary on D.C. or Houston. He highlighted the cyclical nature of market performance, noting that today's top performers were laggards just a few years ago. The goal is to diversify across a portfolio where every market exhibits favorable long-term fundamentals like job growth and in-migration.

Michael Lewis asked if Camden intends to sell the land parcels it is writing down and, separately, where the company is looking to acquire new land parcels.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Richard Campo stated that the company does not need to sell the written-down land and will not do so in a weak market, preferring to hold it until the timing is right. Regarding new acquisitions, he mentioned that Camden has land under contract in Tampa for a suburban stick-construction project. This aligns with their broader strategy of shifting focus from urban mid-rise developments to more suburban, simpler construction projects.

Michael Lewis asked whether increased leasing volume and associated capital expenditures would put near-term pressure on Funds Available for Distribution (FAD) and cash flow.

Answer

CFO Michael LaBelle projected that 2025 FAD would likely be slightly lower, in line with the drop in FFO. However, he noted that cash flow from the portfolio is increasing as free rent periods burn off. He does not expect a significant change in capital expenditures or tenant improvements compared to 2024, suggesting major pressure on FAD is not anticipated.

Michael Lewis of Truist Securities requested a detailed bridge for Core FFO from Q3's $0.17 to the implied Q4 guidance, specifically asking about the interest expense component. He also asked for thoughts on a potential NYC law change regarding broker fees and its impact on Veris's value proposition.

Answer

CFO Amanda Lombard explained the FFO bridge, attributing $0.02 to one-time expense resolutions and another $0.02 to temporarily lower interest expense in Q3 before a refinancing. The remainder of the sequential decline is due to normal seasonality in operating expenses and G&A. CEO Mahbod Nia commented on the potential NYC broker fee change, stating he doesn't believe it would be a single factor that meaningfully moves rents beyond existing market trends.

Michael Lewis inquired about the drivers for the increased core FFO guidance, the company's hedging strategy for its newly refinanced debt, and the specific new and renewal rent spreads for Q3.

Answer

Matthew McGraner, EVP and CIO, attributed the higher FFO guidance to the positive impact of recent debt refinancings and a change in the FFO definition. He stated NXRT will look to layer in new interest rate swaps as market conditions permit. For Q3, he reported new lease rates were down 6.43% and renewal rates were up 2.2%.