Michael Mayo

Michael Mayo of Wells Fargo sought more color on U.S. Bancorp's Non-Depository Financial Institution (NDFI) lending portfolio, including its credit quality compared to the core C&I portfolio and its historical growth. He also asked about specific areas where the bank is more selective or chooses not to pursue loan growth.

Answer

John Stern, Vice Chair and CFO, explained that the NDFI slide was included due to industry interest, emphasizing the diversification and strong risk disciplines, including multiple repayment methods, collateralization, and long-standing client relationships. He noted that NDFI has grown substantially over several years. Regarding selectivity, John Stern stated that credit committees constantly review line items and counterparty limits, being cautious about areas with higher leverage, and prioritizing strong credit profiles and client selection. Gunjan Kedia, CEO, added that these are broad relationships on the fee side in addition to the loan book.

Michael Mayo from Wells Fargo asked new CEO Gunjan Kedia what she would do differently to restore investor confidence and inquired about key organic growth opportunities.

Answer

CEO Gunjan Kedia emphasized her priorities are different, focusing on restoring expense discipline, building an organic growth muscle to amplify performance in areas like payments, and driving a culture of execution urgency. She identified the five merchant verticals (retail, travel, entertainment, healthcare) and increasing product penetration within the Union Bank and Elan franchises as key growth drivers.

Michael Mayo characterized the positive operating leverage outlook as a 'show-me story' and asked under what conditions the company could exceed its 200+ basis point guide. He also questioned the cause of the 70 basis point year-over-year contraction in the merchant acquiring yield.

Answer

CEO Andy Cecere responded that the 200+ bps guide is a conservative figure they are confident in achieving, with potential upside if the revenue environment, particularly the yield curve, proves more favorable. CFO John Stern and President Gunjan Kedia explained that the merchant yield contraction was due to a client mix shift. While the tech-led portion of the business performed well, overall growth was skewed toward high-volume, lower-margin clients, which diluted the aggregate yield.

Michael Mayo asked for a definitive stance on M&A interest in the Southeast, the drivers of operating leverage (revenue vs. expense), the progress of the go-to-market strategy, and the company's approach to AI leadership.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Andy Cecere stated definitively "No" to bank M&A in the current environment, focusing instead on organic growth. He and President Gunjan Kedia explained that operating leverage will come from both revenue growth and expense management, noting the go-to-market strategy is in its final year and showing results. On AI, Cecere said the company is leveraging its scale but is in the "early innings" with generative AI.

Michael Mayo requested more detail on the Family Office Solutions initiative, including its addressable market, revenue contribution, and hiring plans. He also asked about the company's capital philosophy regarding resiliency versus trapped capital, M&A, and potential deregulatory benefits.

Answer

CEO Mike O'Grady clarified that Family Office Solutions targets hundreds of existing clients and a large external market, with Northern Trust acting as an outsourced CFO. He confirmed they are hiring and investing in technology for this initiative. On capital, O'Grady stated that while M&A is not a current priority, the strong capital position supports higher share repurchases, with a 100% payout ratio being a reasonable level.

In a follow-up, Michael Mayo asked how the 2.5% to 3% organic growth target for Wealth Management compares to Northern Trust's recent performance and to peers, suggesting it seems low.

Answer

Then-CFO Jason Tyler acknowledged the target is higher than the firm's performance over the last couple of years but is consistent with prior levels. He cautioned against direct peer comparisons due to different business models and emphasized that Northern Trust's incremental profitability on growth is very strong, leading to better shareholder economics.

Michael Mayo of Wells Fargo Securities questioned how KeyCorp could maintain its optimistic 2025 guidance amid significant macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and market volatility. He asked to reconcile the positive outlook on NII, fees, and credit reserves with the challenging external environment and the ongoing review of tariff impacts.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Christopher Gorman acknowledged the uncertainty but emphasized that Key's clients and business fundamentals remain strong, with many clients having already 'pulled in' their supply chains. CFO Clark Khayat added that much of the NII growth is 'hardwired' from 2024 actions. He also clarified that while the net reserve build was small, it included a significant qualitative adjustment for a potential severe downturn, which offset what would have been a material release.

Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo confirmed KeyCorp's agnostic view between generating NII from lending versus fees from capital markets. He asked about the percentage of middle-market clients with capital markets access and the rationale behind recent special executive compensation awards.

Answer

CFO Clark Khayat affirmed their client-first model, serving them via balance sheet or capital markets, and estimated 20-25% of middle-market clients access capital markets annually. CEO Christopher Gorman addressed compensation by referring to the 8-K and the board's focus on retaining the executive team to execute on the company's growth runway for 2025 and 2026.

Michael Mayo asked to reconcile upbeat operational commentary with macro uncertainty, questioning why reserves weren't higher and buybacks weren't slower if the environment is more difficult. He also asked how the pandemic prepared clients for supply chain disruptions.

Answer

CEO William Rogers clarified that the reduced guidance was isolated to investment banking and the yield curve, not a reflection of weakening core business fundamentals. He noted the buyback was opportunistic. Rogers explained that clients learned valuable lessons during the pandemic, improving their working capital and supply chain management, making them more resilient now.

Michael Mayo pressed for more concrete financial targets beyond 2024, questioning management's accountability in light of lowered return targets and special executive bonuses, and asked for the key metrics that drive shareholder value.

Answer

CEO Bill Rogers asserted that every action is focused on shareholders and that the ROTCE target was reset appropriately following the TIH sale, which created a large capital base. He stated Truist is now best positioned to grow returns by deploying this capital. He defined "medium-term" as a roughly three-year horizon and identified ROTCE and growth in total book value per share plus dividends as the primary metrics correlated to shareholder returns.

Michael Mayo from Wells Fargo Securities questioned the growth in non-compensation expenses despite a declining headcount and the impact of falling noninterest-bearing deposits. He also asked for Robin Vince's perspective on the divergence between strong economic data and weak sentiment, and the potential risks for a global firm like BNY Mellon.

Answer

CFO Dermot McDonogh emphasized the firm's focus on delivering positive operating leverage, noting that investments in technology and strategy are driving both top-line growth and efficiency, including the potential of AI. CEO Robin Vince commented that the longer the disconnect between economic data and sentiment persists, the higher the probability that the data will converge downward. He expressed confidence that BNY's critical services and trusted reputation would help retain international clients.

Michael Mayo of Wells Fargo Securities challenged the platform transformation, asking for more concrete details beyond the 'ONE BNY' concept, whether it risks short-term disruption, and for examples from other industries. He also asked about tech spending.

Answer

CEO Robin Vince provided a detailed rationale, explaining the model aligns the organization with its core identity as a provider of technology and services platforms. He compared the model to how large tech firms are organized and stressed it's a deliberate, multi-year change that is already showing benefits in employee satisfaction and client delivery velocity. CFO Dermot McDonogh noted tech spending is stable around $3.8 billion, with a growing focus on AI.

Michael Mayo asked management to differentiate between market-driven success ('lucky') and strategic execution ('smart'), requesting more detail on underlying client growth. He also questioned if the flat expense guidance implied a Q4 decrease and later asked about the role of AI in the new platform strategy.

Answer

CEO Robin Vince and CFO Dermot McDonogh attributed the strong results to a deliberate strategy of having a diversified business model and a '1BNY' approach driving holistic client relationships. Dermot highlighted 5% YoY fee growth and platform investments. On expenses, he reiterated the 'roughly flat' full-year guide but noted potential pressure from revenue growth and the Archer acquisition. Robin Vince later confirmed a significant investment in an AI hub to drive future revenue and efficiency, all while maintaining expense discipline.

Michael Mayo sought reassurance on Citigroup's credit oversight amid global trade tensions and asked for a 'verbal waterfall chart' detailing how the bank will bridge the gap from its current 9% ROTCE to its 10-11% target for next year.

Answer

CEO Jane Fraser and CFO Mark Mason emphasized the firm's strong balance sheet, high-quality investment-grade client base, and disciplined risk framework. To reach the ROTCE target, Mason outlined a path driven by continued revenue momentum, achieving the 2025 expense target of $53.4 billion, further expense reductions in 2026, and ongoing capital optimization. Fraser added that Citi is a 'very different bank' now in terms of business mix and risk profile.

Michael Mayo asked for confirmation of guidance for three consecutive years of both lower expenses and higher revenues through 2026. He also questioned the trade-off between showing bottom-line results today versus investing for future growth, and later asked about the business targets for the five segments and the cultural impact of the recent major reorganization.

Answer

CFO Mark Mason confirmed the outlook for three years of rising revenue and falling expenses. CEO Jane Fraser emphasized that while expenses are a key focus, she will not sacrifice necessary long-term investments in growth and competitiveness for short-term expediency. She stated the organizational simplification has improved transparency and proximity to the businesses and that the 'best is still ahead.' Mark Mason added that while the firm's 2026 RoTCE target was lowered, the medium-term targets for the business segments remain the goal over time.

Michael Mayo sought assurance that Citigroup can meet its 2026 expense targets while satisfying regulators, asking for confirmation that the bank does not have an asset cap.

Answer

CFO Mark Mason detailed the drivers for expense reduction, including restructuring and transformation efficiencies. CEO Jane Fraser affirmed the company is making meaningful progress on its transformation, stated unequivocally that 'we do not have an asset cap and there are no additional measures,' and confirmed they are not expecting any.

Michael Mayo followed up on the hiring of the new President, asking why he would join the heavily regulated banking industry. He also questioned PNC's appetite for M&A given the emphasis on scale, and whether the current stock price implies accelerated buybacks.

Answer

CEO Bill Demchak responded that banking is a dynamic and fascinating industry, making it an exciting challenge. On M&A, he clarified that while scale matters, large-scale consolidation is a long-term event, and near-term deals are unlikely due to market conditions. He confirmed that not wanting to issue shares at the current price was a 'pretty good assumption' for accelerating share buybacks.

Mike Mayo of Wells Fargo pressed for the underlying reasons for sluggish loan growth, questioning if it was due to capital markets competition or broader corporate sluggishness. He also asked what regulatory changes CEO Bill Demchak would advocate for with the new administration.

Answer

CEO Bill Demchak attributed weak loan growth to low utilization across all segments, driven by economic uncertainty and the high cost of capital, rather than just capital markets competition. On regulation, Demchak called for a focus on core safety and soundness risks and an end to using the banking system to solve societal issues.

Michael Mayo from Wells Fargo Securities pressed for the confidence level in the 2025 record NII forecast and the underlying loan growth assumption. He also asked for the primary reasons behind weak loan growth, the rationale for calling the CRE office issue 'early innings,' and the current view on M&A.

Answer

CEO Bill Demchak affirmed strong confidence in the record NII forecast for 2025, stating it is not dependent on significant loan growth. He remains 'befuddled' by weak loan demand but cited uncertainty and post-COVID operational changes. On CRE, he clarified that while PNC is well-reserved, the industry is in the 'early innings' of resolving troubled assets, a process that will take years. He concluded that PNC does not see value in an acquisition at current market prices.

Michael Mayo asked management to reconcile their upbeat commentary on the bank's performance with the significant recent decline in stock market wealth. He also inquired how potential deregulation could make it easier to do business for Bank of America and its customers.

Answer

CEO Brian Moynihan distinguished between the bank's strong current performance ("what is") and the market's concern about future possibilities ("what could be"), emphasizing the bank is well-positioned for any outcome. He added that deregulation could provide relief by reducing burdensome rules, such as the SLR's treatment of riskless assets, and lowering operational costs.

Michael Mayo asked for a breakdown of NII drivers between short rates, long rates, and yield curve steepness, and also inquired about desired regulatory changes and the potential impact on the bank's CET1 ratio.

Answer

CFO Alastair Borthwick clarified that short-term rates drive about 90% of NII sensitivity, with deposit and loan growth being the most critical factors for year-over-year improvement. CEO Brian Moynihan advocated for regulatory changes like indexing the G-SIB surcharge and reducing CCAR volatility, estimating such adjustments could improve the CET1 ratio by approximately 100 basis points.

Michael Mayo highlighted the apparent disconnect between high digital adoption rates and a worsening efficiency ratio, asking when the bank expects to return to positive operating leverage.

Answer

CFO Alastair Borthwick explained that the pressure on the efficiency ratio is largely from higher incentive compensation tied to strong fee growth in investment banking and sales and trading. He stated that as NII growth continues and credit costs normalize, the bank is well-positioned to deliver operating leverage again, anticipating this to be a focus in 2025.

Michael Mayo asked for more detail on the rationale behind the new $40 billion share buyback authorization and the specific amount of capital that could be freed up from the disposal of historical private investments and the credit card business.

Answer

CEO David Solomon reiterated the firm's capital return philosophy of deploying capital for returns or consistently returning it to shareholders. Executive Denis Coleman specified that the Historical Principal Investments (HPI) portfolio has approximately $4 billion of attributed equity, with the card portfolio having a 'reasonably similar amount'.

Michael Mayo asked about the potential upside in the current environment, the key risks that could derail the positive outlook, the status of Platform Solutions, and the growth opportunity in financing.

Answer

CEO David Solomon acknowledged the constructive environment and positive sentiment shift but cautioned against expecting a return to 2021 levels, highlighting risks from policy uncertainty and cyber threats. He declined to comment further on Platform Solutions. On financing, both Solomon and CFO Denis Coleman emphasized the significant growth opportunity, which will be captured by the new Capital Solutions group that originates for the firm's balance sheet, for distribution, and for AWM clients.

Michael Mayo of Wells Fargo Securities questioned the decision to stop reporting Platform Solutions as a separate segment, the status of the Apple Card partnership, and whether significant sponsor dry powder could create an M&A 'super cycle.'

Answer

CEO David Solomon reiterated that the firm is narrowing its consumer footprint and had nothing new to add regarding the Apple Card, stating the 'direction of travel is pretty clear.' On the M&A outlook, Solomon agreed that sponsor dry powder is a significant factor and anticipates their activity will accelerate over the next 6-24 months, boosting M&A volumes.

Michael Mayo asked for specifics on potential savings from deregulation and questioned CEO Jamie Dimon's evolving commentary on trade wars. He also inquired about the risks of being an international U.S. company in the current geopolitical climate.

Answer

CEO James Dimon clarified his past comments, stating tariffs are justified for national security, which is paramount. He believes deregulation would lower costs for customers (e.g., mortgages) but not lead to major internal expense reductions. He acknowledged that as an international bank, JPMorgan Chase could be 'in the crosshairs' during trade disputes and that the firm will have to deal with that risk.

Michael Mayo of Wells Fargo Securities asked under what circumstances CEO Jamie Dimon would consider government service and whether his cautious view on the stock's valuation reflects an 'old school' model that undervalues the firm's technology and AI progress.

Answer

CEO James Dimon stated the chance of him leaving for government service is 'almost nil' and that he intends to remain in his role. Regarding valuation, Dimon acknowledged the company's strengths but expressed caution about 'very inflated' market valuations in general. He affirmed his preference to be patient with capital deployment, such as buybacks, in anticipation of better opportunities or lower prices in the future.

Michael Mayo of Wells Fargo & Company inquired about State Street's core organic fee revenue growth rate for 2025, excluding headwinds from the BlackRock roll-off and currency, as well as its expected long-term growth rate.

Answer

Mark Keating, incoming Interim CFO, detailed the significant progress in servicing fee sales, which grew from ~$150M in 2020 to $380M in 2024, with a target of $350M-$400M for 2025. CEO Ron O'Hanley clarified the underlying fee growth guidance is 5-7%, which nets to 3-5% after a 1% client roll-off impact and FX headwinds. O'Hanley expressed confidence that this growth rate is sustainable due to improvements in the Alpha value proposition, service quality, and a revamped sales force.

Michael Mayo asked if Fifth Third is calling a definitive turn for commercial loan growth for the bank or the industry, given the positive commentary on pipelines, utilization, and client sentiment.

Answer

CEO Tim Spence gave a cautious response of "maybe," acknowledging a more favorable backdrop but emphasizing the unpredictability of the economy. He advised against modeling excessively high C&I growth rates, despite the positive signs.

Michael Mayo questioned the disconnect between record loan production and flat loan growth, asking about the impact of paydowns and future expectations. He also followed up on the returns from organic investments, like Southeast branches, and whether the bank should reduce buybacks to fund more growth amid rising competition.

Answer

CFO Bryan Preston attributed the flat growth to elevated paydowns of approximately $900 million and a 1% decline in revolver utilization, both of which he expects to normalize. CEO Tim Spence added that client uncertainty and inventory destocking have suppressed borrowing. On investments, Spence highlighted the 18-20% IRR on Southeast branches and stated the bank is being 'appropriately aggressive' and not constraining investment. Preston noted that the pace of branch builds is accelerating due to their proven success.

Michael Mayo followed up on previous management optimism about the markets, asking for an update on the strength of the investment banking and M&A backlogs and the potential to monetize them.

Answer

Executive Ted Pick confirmed his bullish stance, stating that M&A pipelines are the highest they have been in seven years. He noted that pent-up activity is beginning to be released, citing large capital raises and renewed discussions around IPOs. Pick believes that if markets remain constructive, 2025 will see increasing corporate finance activity, driven by corporates looking to purify their businesses and sponsors seeking to harvest assets.

Michael Mayo asked whether Morgan Stanley is a leader or follower in AI, seeking specifics on its partnership with OpenAI and inquiring about future applications of the technology at the firm.

Answer

CFO Sharon Yeshaya described the OpenAI partnership as 'extremely well,' highlighting tools for research queries and meeting summaries that save adviser time. Co-President Ted Pick added that while they can be a 'fast follower' on some tech, the firm is focused on proprietary AI applications to enhance adviser productivity and client interactions within Wealth Management. He envisions future AI tools that will proactively inform FAs of relevant products and services for clients based on real-time events.

Michael Mayo pressed management on its relatively optimistic 'pause, not delete' view of the M&A pipeline, asking at what point prolonged uncertainty would effectively kill the recovery and force a 'delete' of planned deals.

Answer

CEO Ted Pick acknowledged that prolonged and complex uncertainty could eventually turn the 'pause' into a 'delete.' However, he maintained it is still early and that clients remain highly engaged. He suggested that clarity on other policy pillars, like tax and deregulation, might be sufficient for clients to proceed with deals even amid higher structural volatility, expecting more clarity on the economic outlook by mid-year.

Michael Mayo from Wells Fargo & Company asked management to reconcile its stated asset sensitivity and desire for an upward-sloping yield curve with its guidance for slightly to moderately increasing net interest income over the next year, a scenario he described as "having your cake and eating it too." He also asked about the risks to this outlook and management's conviction on the yield curve.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Harris Simmons pointed to continued opportunities to reprice deposits that were aggressively priced post-SVB and better-than-expected stabilization in noninterest-bearing deposits. CFO Ryan Richards acknowledged the high asset sensitivity but noted the bank is constantly balancing near-term earnings risk with longer-term exposure to tangible equity. Simmons added his personal view that inflation may be more stubborn than the Fed believes, suggesting the real long-term risk is still toward increasing rates.