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    Michael Montani

    Managing Director and senior equity research analyst at Evercore ISI

    Michael Montani is a Managing Director and senior equity research analyst at Evercore ISI, specializing in the coverage of retail and automotive sectors with a focus on companies such as Kroger, CarMax, Five Below, Dollar General, and Carvana. He is recognized for his detailed stock recommendations and target price revisions, consistently providing actionable insights for institutional investors. Montani began his career at MoffettNathanson, where he served as a Senior Analyst before joining Evercore ISI, and he is a CFA charterholder. His professional credentials include advanced securities licenses and regulatory registrations, reflecting his expertise and long-standing performance in equity research.

    Michael Montani's questions to FIVE BELOW (FIVE) leadership

    Michael Montani's questions to FIVE BELOW (FIVE) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Michael Montani from Evercore ISI requested a breakdown of the implied Q4 operating margin pressure between gross margin and SG&A, and asked if the tariff headwind would be similar to Q3's, also seeking color on the offsets.

    Answer

    Interim CFO & COO Kenneth Bull detailed the implied Q4 operating margin decline of approximately 320 basis points. He attributed about 225 basis points to net tariff impact and broke down the total deleverage as roughly 70% from gross margin and 30% from SG&A, with other factors being incentive comp and fixed cost deleverage.

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    Michael Montani's questions to FIVE BELOW (FIVE) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Montani of Evercore ISI sought more clarity on the EBIT margin pressure, asking how the deleverage beyond the 150 basis points from tariffs is allocated among incentive comp, marketing, and store labor.

    Answer

    COO Ken Bull reiterated the full-year deleverage breakdown, with about 60% impacting gross margin (primarily tariffs) and 40% impacting SG&A. He confirmed the SG&A pressure is driven by higher incentive compensation and investments in labor hours, partially offset by fixed cost leverage, but did not provide a more granular split.

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    Michael Montani's questions to FIVE BELOW (FIVE) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Michael Montani asked for details on the 2018-19 tariff experience, including the tariff rate, the company's ability to offset the impact, and the current percentage of goods sourced from China.

    Answer

    Interim CEO Ken Bull recalled that tariffs peaked around 25%, primarily affecting tech and room products. He said the main mitigation strategy was vendor collaboration, which was effective until rates became too high, necessitating price increases above $5. He confirmed that current sourcing from China is near 60% and highlighted that the company is better prepared now with a playbook, an established Five Beyond concept, and an India sourcing office.

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    Michael Montani's questions to FIVE BELOW (FIVE) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Michael Montani from Evercore ISI requested quantification on the increase in SKU count from pre-pandemic levels and asked for details on the store labor model, including average wages and the expected magnitude of investment in store hours.

    Answer

    Interim President and CEO Kenneth Bull declined to provide specific numbers but characterized the SKU growth as a "double-digit percentage increase" which the company now intends to reverse. On labor, he stated that wages will remain competitive on a market-by-market basis and that the reinvestment in hours will be determined by workload analysis to ensure a great customer experience, rather than being a predetermined amount.

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    Michael Montani's questions to ADVANCE AUTO PARTS (AAP) leadership

    Michael Montani's questions to ADVANCE AUTO PARTS (AAP) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Michael Montani of Evercore ISI asked about the breakdown of the H2 comp guidance between pricing and elasticity and questioned the strategy for balancing large wholesale accounts with 'Main Street' Pro customers.

    Answer

    CFO Ryan Grimsland stated the H2 comp guidance includes low to mid-single-digit inflation with embedded elasticity impacts, noting a wide range of outcomes is possible. CEO Shane O'Kelly clarified the Pro strategy is an 'and,' not an 'either/or,' meaning the company continues to serve its large accounts while also increasing focus on prospecting smaller Main Street customers to cover the full market spectrum.

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    Michael Montani's questions to Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) leadership

    Michael Montani's questions to Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Michael Montani of Evercore ISI questioned if there were any margin impacts in Q2 from the UNFI supply chain issues or the loyalty program. He also asked for an update on new store performance and the opening cadence for the remainder of the year.

    Answer

    CFO Curtis Valentine confirmed the loyalty program had no Q2 margin impact as it was still in a pilot phase. He stated that while the UNFI disruption was challenging, the impact was minimal due to strong partnership and a smaller business portion affected. CEO Jack Sinclair reported that new stores are performing exceptionally well, with the V6 format showing consistency, and confirmed the company is on track for 35 openings in 2025.

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    Michael Montani's questions to Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Montani asked for a breakdown of the Q1 comparable sales growth between transaction count and transaction size, and whether the Q2 guidance provides a cushion. He also requested more detail on the expected split between gross margin and SG&A leverage for the guided EBIT margin expansion in Q2 and the second half of the year.

    Answer

    CFO Curtis Valentine revealed that traffic drove approximately 70% of the Q1 comp. He confirmed that Q2 started well and that the company is comfortable with its guidance. For Q2 margin expansion, he expects the majority to come from gross margin. For the second half, he anticipates a more balanced contribution between gross margin improvement and SG&A leverage.

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    Michael Montani's questions to Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Michael Montani asked about potential partnerships with health care payers, the impact of potential SNAP changes, the duration of store closure costs, and any produce supply chain disruptions.

    Answer

    CEO Jack Sinclair noted that while health-related trends are important, the company is not actively pursuing healthcare partnerships, and that SNAP is a small part of their business. CFO Curtis Valentine stated that store closure costs from 2023 will taper off over time. President and COO Nick Konat confirmed there have been no material disruptions to produce supply.

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    Michael Montani's questions to Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Michael Montani asked about variations in behavior among different consumer income levels and sought more detail on the Q4 margin outlook and long-term margin potential.

    Answer

    CEO Jack Sinclair explained that customer behavior correlates more with education level and interest in health than with income, noting a trend toward younger consumers with specific dietary needs. CFO Curtis Valentine stated that Q3's gross margin strength was driven by improved shrink against an easy prior-year compare. He reiterated confidence in a stable bottom-line algorithm long-term, with levers in both gross margin and SG&A to manage performance.

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    Michael Montani's questions to Albertsons Companies (ACI) leadership

    Michael Montani's questions to Albertsons Companies (ACI) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Montani questioned why EPS guidance was unchanged despite a higher ID sales outlook and asked about trends in 'better for you' products and GLP-1 consumer behavior.

    Answer

    President & CFO Sharon McCollam explained that the ID sales guidance increase is driven by outsized pharmacy growth, which carries a lower margin profile, thus not impacting the EPS outlook. CEO Susan Morris noted that natural and organic categories are growing, driven by broad health trends and social media, which aligns well with the purchasing habits of GLP-1 users who favor items like protein and supplements.

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    Michael Montani's questions to Albertsons Companies (ACI) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Asked why EPS guidance was held flat despite a raised sales outlook and inquired about trends in 'better for you' products and their connection to GLP-1 user behavior.

    Answer

    The unchanged EPS guidance is due to the sales mix, with outsized growth in the lower-margin pharmacy business. 'Better for you' and specialty categories are growing, driven by broad health trends and specific popular items like cottage cheese and premium sparkling water. These trends align well with the needs of GLP-1 customers but also appeal to the broader consumer base.

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    Michael Montani's questions to Albertsons Companies (ACI) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Michael Montani of Evercore ISI requested a breakdown of the capital expenditure plan for the upcoming year, including the number of new stores and remodels. He also asked how the company would approach potential tariffs in terms of preserving margin dollars versus margin rate.

    Answer

    President and CFO Sharon McCollam indicated that CapEx allocation would be similar to the prior year, with about half dedicated to stores and the rest invested in digital platforms and AMC. Regarding tariffs, she emphasized that strategic priorities, like enhancing customer value, would guide its response. CEO-elect Susan Morris added that the ultimate focus is on driving dollars.

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    Michael Montani's questions to Albertsons Companies (ACI) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Asked about the outlook for ROIC and the role of store rationalization. Also inquired about sustainable free cash flow and the expected pacing of the $2 billion share buyback.

    Answer

    More detailed outlook will be provided in April, but the long-term algorithm (2% growth, EBITDA growing faster, $1.8-1.9B CapEx) remains consistent. The company plans to opportunistically repurchase shares with excess cash but is not executing an Accelerated Share Repurchase (ASR) program.

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    Michael Montani's questions to Albertsons Companies (ACI) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Michael Montani asked about the forward outlook for ROIC, the role of store rationalization, expected free cash flow, and the potential pacing of the $2 billion share repurchase authorization.

    Answer

    President and CFO Sharon McCollam pointed to the company's long-term growth algorithm and CapEx plans as indicators for future performance but deferred a detailed FY25 outlook to April. She confirmed the company plans to opportunistically repurchase shares with excess cash under the new authorization but is not planning an accelerated share repurchase (ASR) program.

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    Michael Montani's questions to CARMAX (KMX) leadership

    Michael Montani's questions to CARMAX (KMX) leadership • Q1 2026

    Question

    Michael Montani of Evercore asked for details on the upcoming marketing campaign focused on omni-channel capabilities and questioned if the new credit strategy signals an intent to increase subprime loan penetration.

    Answer

    President & CEO Bill Nash explained the new campaign will highlight the optionality CarMax offers so customers don't have to 'settle' for a single path. EVP of Auto Finance Jon Daniels confirmed the company is looking to grow subprime and overall CAF penetration, citing a long-term goal of 50%, up from the current low-40s.

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    Michael Montani's questions to CARMAX (KMX) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    Michael Montani asked about the historical impact of appreciating used car prices on CarMax's market share and margins, and sought clarity on the timing and cadence of the company's EPS growth model. He later asked about the Edmunds lease impairment and when increased CAF penetration would become a net positive for profits.

    Answer

    CEO William Nash stated that an appreciating price environment generally helps margins and market share for all used car sellers. CFO Enrique Mayor-Mora explained the EPS model is driven by strong margins, growth in other GPU, SG&A leverage, and share repurchases. Regarding CAF, EVP Jon Daniels confirmed that CAF income is expected to grow in FY26, even with higher provisions, driven by strong net interest margins.

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    Michael Montani's questions to CARMAX (KMX) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Michael Montani asked about the long-term store count potential and whether compensation costs would now grow slower than unit volume. He also followed up on tax season planning.

    Answer

    CEO William Nash confirmed the potential to grow beyond 300 stores, emphasizing the physical footprint's strategic importance. CFO Enrique Mayor-Mora expects stronger leverage on compensation costs due to efficiencies from the omnichannel model and AI tools. Regarding tax season, Nash said the key is planning for flexibility.

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    Michael Montani's questions to CASEYS GENERAL STORES (CASY) leadership

    Michael Montani's questions to CASEYS GENERAL STORES (CASY) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    Michael Montani asked for a breakdown of same-store sales performance between traffic and ticket for the fourth quarter and the full year. He also inquired about the underlying traffic and ticket assumptions embedded in the 2% to 5% sales guidance for fiscal 2026.

    Answer

    CFO Steve Bramlage clarified that for Q4, traffic was slightly negative entirely due to a weather-impacted February, while March and April saw positive and improving traffic. The fiscal 2026 guidance assumes positive traffic growth, though ticket growth from both mix and price is expected to be a larger contributor. This reflects a prudent approach to offsetting inflation while maintaining the company's value proposition.

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    Michael Montani's questions to CASEYS GENERAL STORES (CASY) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    Michael Montani asked for a breakdown of same-store sales into traffic and ticket for Q4 and the full year. He also inquired about the underlying assumptions for traffic and ticket within the 2% to 5% sales guidance for fiscal 2026.

    Answer

    CFO Steve Bramlage explained that Q4 traffic was slightly negative, but this was entirely due to a challenging February; traffic was positive and improving in March and April. He stated that the FY26 guidance is built on an assumption of positive traffic, with a slightly larger contribution from ticket growth, which reflects both product mix and prudent pricing to offset inflation.

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    Michael Montani's questions to CASEYS GENERAL STORES (CASY) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Michael Montani asked for management's perspective on the health of the consumer and Casey's value positioning against peers, including other dining options.

    Answer

    CEO Darren Rebelez noted some pressure on lower-income consumers (under $50k/year), who make up about 25% of their guest base, but confirmed this group is still showing positive, albeit slower, growth. He highlighted Casey's strong value proposition, particularly in pizza, where they are typically priced $1 or more below national brand competitors in markets where they overlap.

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    Michael Montani's questions to CASEYS GENERAL STORES (CASY) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Michael Montani asked about potential headwinds that could impact the strong grocery and general merchandise margins in the second half of the year. He also inquired about any margin pressures in prepared foods beyond the cost of cheese.

    Answer

    CEO Darren Rebelez stated he doesn't anticipate significant headwinds for grocery margins, as mix evolution should remain a benefit. CFO Steve Bramlage added that there's some natural seasonality in the third quarter mix that could be slightly dilutive. For prepared foods, Bramlage confirmed there were no other significant headwinds to note besides cheese, which is currently less of a headwind than it was in Q2.

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    Michael Montani's questions to CASEYS GENERAL STORES (CASY) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Montani asked about the underlying health of Casey's consumer base and inquired about the potential to use hedging or pricing to offset rising cheese costs.

    Answer

    CEO Darren Rebelez stated that while lower-income consumers are modestly changing habits, the majority of the customer base shows no significant change in purchasing behavior. CFO Stephen Bramlage added that Casey's is about 25% hedged on cheese for the fiscal year and focuses on total inside store profitability, using strong grocery margins to maintain the value proposition in prepared foods without significant price hikes.

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    Michael Montani's questions to CARVANA (CVNA) leadership

    Michael Montani's questions to CARVANA (CVNA) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Montani requested an update on Carvana's third-party marketplace initiatives and asked if analysts should model for ancillary revenue streams like third-party logistics or reconditioning services.

    Answer

    CFO Mark Jenkins reported that the wholesale and retail marketplace offerings are progressing well and represent a fundamental opportunity, but he emphasized that it is "incredibly early" in their development. He clarified that other potential ancillary revenues, such as third-party reconditioning or logistics, are "not a near-term focus," as the company is prioritizing growth in its core consumer auto retail business.

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    Michael Montani's questions to CARVANA (CVNA) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Michael Montani of Evercore ISI asked about the potential cadence for expanding into new markets and for an assessment of the current operating environment, including inventory availability, competitive rationality, and the strategy for balancing unit growth versus profit maximization.

    Answer

    CEO Ernie Garcia clarified that future growth will come from increasing market share in existing markets rather than entering new ones, as they already serve the vast majority of the country. He described the competitive market as rational and stable. Garcia emphasized that the focus remains on executing well and improving the customer offering to take share within the large, mature used car market, which has predictable economics.

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    Michael Montani's questions to KROGER (KR) leadership

    Michael Montani's questions to KROGER (KR) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Michael Montani requested a breakdown of Q4 identical sales into traffic versus ticket, the level of inflation during the quarter, and the specific impact of GLP-1 drugs on sales growth.

    Answer

    Interim CFO Todd Foley stated that Q4 identical sales growth was driven by both ticket and traffic, with a slight skew towards ticket due to a minor uptick in inflation. He did not quantify the GLP-1 impact but noted Kroger's experience was similar to the broader industry. He also reiterated the 2025 inflation forecast of 1.5% to 2.5%.

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    Michael Montani's questions to KROGER (KR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Michael Montani from Evercore ISI asked for the fuel cents-per-gallon (CPG) contribution for the quarter.

    Answer

    Interim CFO Todd Foley responded that Kroger no longer provides specific details on fuel CPG. However, he confirmed that both gallons sold and cents-per-gallon margin were down in the third quarter. He noted that for Q4, they expect fuel profitability to be more stable year-over-year based on recent trends.

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    Michael Montani's questions to KROGER (KR) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Michael Montani asked for the key drivers behind the implied stable to slightly improved EBIT margin in the second half, focusing on shrink trends and any one-time OG&A costs from Q2.

    Answer

    Interim CFO Todd Foley expressed cautious optimism on shrink improvement but noted it's still a work in progress. He identified non-recurring Q2 costs, such as those from Hurricane Beryl, that will not repeat. CEO Rodney McMullen added that Fresh shrink has seen sustained improvement from technology and process changes.

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