Michael Mueller

Michael Mueller inquired about the institutional appetite for higher productivity malls, specifically whether Simon Property Group's JV partners are looking to invest more or if Simon is more likely to buy them out.

Answer

Chairman, CEO, and President David Simon noted that there isn't a strong trend in either direction, describing the situation as 'status quo.' He explained that decisions are partner-by-partner, depending on their specific circumstances and investment strategies.

Michael Mueller asked about the institutional appetite for higher productivity malls, specifically whether Simon Property Group's joint venture partners are looking to invest more or if Simon is more likely to buy them out.

Answer

David Simon, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President, explained that Simon Property Group does not have many joint ventures, and the situation is highly dependent on individual partners, their asset holdings, and investment strategies. He characterized the current state as "more status quo," with no significant rush for partners to either enter or exit these investments.

Michael Mueller asked if sales trends would differ on an NOI-weighted basis and requested a breakdown of the development pipeline between retail and mixed-use projects.

Answer

CEO David Simon confirmed that on an NOI-weighted basis, sales would be up, stating 'the better properties are getting better.' CFO Brian McDade quantified this, noting sales at the top 100 assets were up 1.5%. McDade also broke down the development pipeline as 60% retail and 40% mixed-use, based on Simon's share of costs.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for a comparison of asset pricing, wondering how a comparable quality U.S. property would be valued relative to the recently acquired Kering assets in Italy.

Answer

Chairman and CEO David Simon artfully addressed the question by making a macro statement: high-quality, comparable properties in Italy generally trade at higher cap rates than they would in the U.S. This implies that the acquisition was secured at a more attractive yield than what would be available for a similar asset domestically.

Michael Mueller asked if Simon anticipates more acquisition opportunities over the next few years compared to the recent past and what the average annual spending level on development and redevelopment is expected to be.

Answer

David Simon, Chairman, CEO, and President, addressed acquisitions, stating that while it's hard to compare, he believes opportunities will arise for the company to grow through acquisitions, though they will remain disciplined. Brian McDade, CFO, handled the development question, projecting an annual spending commitment of around $1.5 billion, with some variability, supported by a $4 billion 'shadow pipeline' of potential projects.

Michael Mueller asked about changes in the mix of institutional competition for Curbline Properties Corp.'s acquisitions over recent quarters and how sensitive this competition is to fluctuations in interest rates, specifically the 10-year Treasury yield.

Answer

David Lukes, CEO, stated that competition is highly impacted by rates because most competitors are levered buyers, making Curbline Properties Corp. a desirable counterparty as a cash buyer. He noted that about half of their inventory is sourced off-market through relationships. While there is competition for top-quartile assets, he wouldn't say there's been a significant change in competition over the last 12 months.

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for two points of clarification: the specific timing in September for the $150 million note closing, and whether a substantial number of assets were left behind in the recent 23-property portfolio acquisition that could be future targets.

Answer

CFO Conor Fennerty specified that the $150 million private placement is expected to fund in 'early September.' On the portfolio question, CEO David Lukes declined to comment on the seller's remaining holdings but characterized them as a sophisticated group, stating Curbline would be 'lucky' to do more business with them, implying a positive relationship and potential for future transactions.

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked if Curbline is considering raising its annual acquisition guidance from the current $500 million, given the strong pace of transactions and the large near-term pipeline.

Answer

CFO Conor Fennerty confirmed that the midpoint of the 2025 guidance range still assumes $500 million in acquisitions for the full year. However, he noted that the top end of the range does assume the entire current $500 million pipeline closes, which would bring the annual total to approximately $640 million. CEO David Lukes added that as the company is only in its second quarter as a public entity, it is prudent to maintain the original targets for now, despite demonstrating the capacity for higher volume.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked if Curbline is considering increasing its annual acquisition guidance from the $500 million target, given the strength of its current near-term pipeline.

Answer

CFO Conor Fennerty clarified that while the midpoint of 2025 guidance remains at $500 million, the high end of the range does assume the current pipeline closes, which would bring the annual total to approximately $640 million. Both he and CEO David Lukes stated that as a new public company, they feel it is prudent to maintain the official target for now.

Michael Mueller asked about the factors driving the high and low ends of the 2025 same-store NOI guidance and the expected timeline for the total portfolio's occupancy to reach the same-store level.

Answer

CFO Conor Fennerty explained that the same-store guidance range is primarily driven by potential unbudgeted move-outs within the small, volatile pool. He emphasized that same-store NOI is not the primary growth driver at this stage. He projected that the occupancy gap between the total portfolio (93.9%) and the same-store pool (95.1%) would close 'materially faster' than two years, likely within the first six months of 2025, due to minimal downtime in backfilling spaces.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked if the new partnership with Orchard Securities signals a long-term commitment to the managed REIT platform and inquired about the acquisition pipeline's focus on existing versus new markets.

Answer

CEO H. Michael Schwartz clarified the managed REIT business is a short- to mid-term strategy, not a long-term one, and the partner change was a tactical move to improve economics. Regarding acquisitions, Schwartz stated the focus is on high-quality, smaller deals with management upside. CFO James Barry added that the strategy is to build scale in existing clusters, citing recent deals in Houston and Alberta as prime examples.

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the breadth of acquisition opportunities in the new markets, questioning whether the strategy involves finding a few centers in many cities or being more targeted.

Answer

CIO Jan Sweetnam mentioned there are 'several handfuls' of markets with opportunities for a dominant center. CEO Donald Wood added that they are targeting 4-5 large assets per year and may supplement them with smaller acquisitions in those same markets to build scale.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked which segments of the portfolio would be most impacted first if the consumer were to 'hit a wall,' suggesting dining as a potential area of weakness.

Answer

CEO Donald Wood countered that vulnerability is tied to the health of the individual operator and their occupancy cost, not the retail segment itself. He cited that Federal's restaurant segment performed best after the GFC due to strong operators in affluent markets. He stressed that tenant quality and high-income consumer demographics provide significant insulation during downturns.

Michael Mueller asked if the two new development announcements should be interpreted as a strategic pivot back towards development.

Answer

CEO Donald Wood responded that it is not yet time to call it a pivot, but conditions are improving. He explained that development economics are enhanced by using company-owned land with a low cost basis and by more favorable construction pricing as contractors have less work. He characterized it as a 'start' to a potential development cycle, but noted acquisitions are still a major focus.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked how close the company is to pivoting its development bias from residential back towards retail, given the robust retail leasing environment.

Answer

CEO Donald Wood clarified that he does not see it as a 'pivot' but rather as a continuous competition for capital among all opportunities. He acknowledged that residential development is becoming more financially viable but stated it is not mutually exclusive with retail redevelopment or acquisitions. CFO Daniel Guglielmone added that high land values in their core markets make new single-story retail development difficult to pencil out on a risk-adjusted basis.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the company's strategy for managing interest expense, particularly with interest rate caps and swaps set to expire at year-end.

Answer

CFO Rob Crisci acknowledged an expected $10 million per quarter headwind in 2026 from expiring swaps. He outlined a multi-pronged mitigation strategy that includes leveraging their new investment-grade rating to issue bonds, executing new swaps (a recent $750M swap was mentioned), and exploring financing opportunities in different currencies to lower the overall cost of capital.

Michael Mueller asked for examples of where customer pauses are occurring, specifically between producers and retailers. He also inquired how required returns on acquisitions and developments change when dealing with a large anchor customer like Tyson.

Answer

CEO W. Lehmkuhl clarified that the decision-making pauses are more prevalent among producers, who are hesitant to commit to long-term logistics contracts amid tariff uncertainty, while U.S. consumer demand remains stable. Regarding the Tyson deal, he stated that the returns are in line with historical expectations and that the transaction is accretive and a 'win-win' for both parties.

Michael Mueller asked about management's view on normalized, longer-term physical and economic occupancy levels for the portfolio.

Answer

CEO W. Lehmkuhl stated the goal is to increase occupancy over time by gaining market share, citing a recent win with a top-10 customer that will increase business by 50%. He said their strategy is to be the lowest-cost provider with the best service. CFO Robert Crisci added that current occupancy levels provide available space to sell, which represents upside not included in their guidance.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about historical catalysts, other than housing cycles, that have driven up stagnant move-in rates. He also asked about the level of customer pushback on recent existing customer rate increases (ECRI).

Answer

President & CEO Christopher Marr explained that outside of major economic events, pricing has historically trended at or above inflation, with the post-pandemic period being the sharpest upside. He stated there has been no change in customer reaction to ECRIs, as the existing customer base remains healthy and the product is sticky.

Michael Mueller inquired about historical catalysts, other than housing cycles, that have caused stagnant move-in rates to increase. He also asked about the level of customer pushback on recent existing customer rate increases (ECRI) compared to the last few years.

Answer

CEO Christopher Marr identified the pandemic as the sharpest upside driver in his career and noted that, absent black swan events or new supply, pricing has historically trended at or above inflation. Regarding ECRI, he stated there has been 'no change' in customer reaction, as the existing customer base remains healthy, though he noted the company is testing different increase strategies, which adds to revenue volatility.

Michael Mueller asked how much of the high operating expense growth (30-50%) in markets like Atlanta and Austin was due to the tough property tax comp versus other factors. He also inquired if existing customer rate increase (ECRI) levels in 2025 would be similar to 2024.

Answer

CFO Tim Martin confirmed that the outsized expense growth in those specific markets was indeed driven by the difficult year-over-year comparison in real estate taxes, stemming from significant refunds received in Q4 2023. President and CEO Christopher Marr stated that at the midpoint of guidance, ECRI levels in 2025 are assumed to be 'fairly consistent' with 2024, with modest changes in either direction at the high and low ends of the range.

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the occupancy levels and expected going-in yields for the two acquisitions announced by the company.

Answer

CFO Timothy Martin reported that both acquisitions are relatively new properties, built about 3.5 years ago, and are not yet fully stabilized. He stated they will come onto CubeSmart's platform with occupancy in the 70-75% range. The expected stabilized capitalization rate for each asset in year two is projected to be around 6%.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. sought clarification on which occupancy metric the 75-125 basis points of absorption guidance applied to. He also asked about the biggest variables that would determine performance at the high versus low end of the three-year NFFO target range.

Answer

EVP & COO Rob Hull clarified the absorption guidance applies to same-store occupancy. EVP & CFO Austen Helfrich identified the two biggest variables for the three-year FFO target as the annual NOI growth rate achieved in the base portfolio (3% vs. 4%) and the speed at which the $50 million NOI upside from the lease-up portfolio is realized. President & CEO Peter Scott added that future refinancing rates are another significant, uncontrollable variable.

Michael Mueller asked how the company plans to balance the earnings impact from disposition-driven deleveraging and inquired about any operational benefits of not cutting the dividend.

Answer

CEO Peter Scott explained the strategy to offset dilution from asset sales includes relying on in-place lease escalators, operational efficiencies, and leasing upside. Regarding the dividend, he acknowledged the high payout ratio but said the focus is on growing earnings regardless of the dividend decision, noting that retained earnings could provide a nominal benefit to future growth.

Michael Mueller sought more detail on why only half of the remaining $10 million in Steward NOI is expected to be recaptured and asked about the likelihood of the company being a net seller again in the next year.

Answer

Executive Todd Meredith explained the conservative recapture estimate accounts for a general vacancy factor when converting single-tenant buildings to multi-tenant, potential rate differences, and the closure of two campuses where asset sales are more likely than re-leasing. Regarding 2025, he reiterated an opportunistic and dynamic approach to capital allocation and did not commit to a net seller or buyer position.

Michael Mueller asked whether consumer or business customers are showing stronger demand and if one category exhibits more pushback on rent increases (ECRIs).

Answer

CEO Joseph Margolis explained that the business customer segment is not monolithic. He noted that large, national business customers tend to stay longer and react better to ECRIs, whereas small, local businesses often behave more like traditional retail customers.

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked how the company's operational playbook in a future recession would differ from the GFC era. He also inquired about the historical conversion rate of bridge loans into acquisitions.

Answer

CEO Joseph Margolis explained that the company is in a much better position now due to superior systems, data, and experience. He noted that during the GFC, they learned that unilaterally cutting rates to prevent vacates was ineffective. He also stated that historically, about 24% of bridge loan dollars, or $595 million out of $2.5 billion, have converted into acquisitions, though this can be lumpy.

Michael Mueller inquired about current acquisition pricing and the returns needed to favor on-balance-sheet deals over JVs. He also asked for the specific drivers behind the increased rental activity in the rebranded LSI portfolio.

Answer

CEO Joseph Margolis stated that the current cost of capital makes most on-market deals unsuitable for the balance sheet, leading to a focus on off-market and JV structures. He attributed the LSI rental pickup to the superior digital presence of the Extra Space brand, which drives more online traffic and higher conversion rates while simultaneously reducing marketing spend.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked whether digital rental channels generate customer data of comparable quality to traditional channels for informing pricing and marketing.

Answer

CEO Joseph Russell confirmed that all rental channels, including digital, provide a rich variety of robust data. He added that the company continuously leverages this data to enhance customer knowledge and operational efficiency, noting that increased digital interactions lead to more data and greater opportunities for insight.

Michael Mueller asked how to reconcile current development economics with move-in rents being at 2013 levels while construction costs have risen, questioning if the company is accepting lower yields.

Answer

H. Boyle acknowledged the challenging environment but stated PSA is not lowering its return expectations. Joseph Russell added that because most industry development is localized, smaller players are constrained, creating pockets of opportunity where PSA's scale, data, and capital allow it to pursue attractive projects with less competition.

Michael Mueller asked for more detail on the Los Angeles forecast, specifically whether the headwinds were from lower ECRI potential or an inability to lift seasonal move-in rates, and how the move-in rate assumption would differ excluding L.A.

Answer

Executive H. Boyle clarified that the primary driver of the 100 basis point impact in Los Angeles is the restriction on existing customer rent increases (ECRIs). He noted that move-in rents in L.A. were performing slightly better than the company average before the restrictions and that the impact on move-in rates is not expected to be significant.

Michael Mueller inquired about Public Storage's land position for future development, asking how many years of development starts the company currently controls and the total investment potential of its current land holdings.

Answer

CEO Joseph Russell explained their capital-efficient strategy involves controlling land through options rather than owning a large land bank, typically closing on the land just before construction. Executive H. Boyle specified they own about $60 million of land, which, along with redevelopment projects and other land under contract, provides development visibility for the next couple of years.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. requested details on the approximately $100 million in pending asset sales, including product type and geography, and asked for the strategic rationale behind the new capital investment in the Swiss InfraCore JV.

Answer

Edward Aldag, Chairman, President & CEO, clarified that the asset sales, expected to close by year-end, primarily involve former Steward properties and other non-core assets. He explained the additional investment in the Swiss JV was a strategic move to help InfraCore expand into the public hospital market, viewing it as a small but important investment.

Michael Mueller asked for details on the approximately $100 million in pending asset sales, including timing and asset type, and questioned the strategic rationale for investing new capital into the Swiss InfraCore joint venture rather than preserving liquidity.

Answer

CEO Ed Aldag stated the asset sales, comprising former Steward properties and other non-core assets, are expected to close by year-end. He explained the additional investment in the Swiss JV was a strategic move to help InfraCore expand into the public hospital market, viewing it as a small but important investment for future growth opportunities.

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for details on the approximately $100 million in pending asset sales, including timing and asset type. He also questioned the strategic rationale for allocating new capital to the Swiss InfraCore joint venture instead of preserving liquidity.

Answer

Chairman, President & CEO Edward Aldag stated the asset sales, comprising former Steward properties and other non-core assets, are expected to close by year-end. He explained the Swiss investment was a strategic, relatively small move to help the InfraCore JV gain access to the public hospital market in Switzerland, creating new acquisition opportunities.

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned the details of the planned $100 million in asset sales and the strategic rationale for making an additional investment in the Swiss InfraCore joint venture.

Answer

CEO Edward K. Aldag Jr. stated the asset sales, expected to close by year-end, involve former Steward and other miscellaneous properties. He explained the additional InfraCore investment was a strategic move to facilitate entry into the Swiss public hospital market, viewing it as a valuable long-term opportunity for a relatively small capital outlay.

Michael Mueller asked why Medical Properties Trust did not upsize its recent bond offering further to address all 2026 debt maturities, given the significant investor demand.

Answer

CFO R. Hamner explained the primary goal was to secure an attractive coupon. He stated that they did not need the additional capital and that not upsizing retains crucial flexibility for other balance sheet strategies, such as asset sales or future financings on potentially more favorable terms.

Michael Muller asked how RevPOR growth compares between independent living (IL) and assisted living (AL), noting that IL occupancy trends have been stronger.

Answer

J. Justin Hutchens, EVP - CIO of Senior Housing, explained that while both price and volume have been strong in IL, the company's primary focus is on driving volume in its IL portfolio, which is currently around 84% occupied. He noted that IL does not have the same negative re-leasing spread dynamic as AL, making rent growth more straightforward as it lacks the high-acuity care component.

Michael Mueller inquired about the development pipeline, specifically the 2027 stabilization date for a fully leased project, and asked for management's high-level thoughts on investing in entry-fee communities.

Answer

CEO Debra A. Cafaro explained the stabilization date is driven by the consolidation of two buildings in a single project for reporting purposes, one of which is 60% pre-leased. Executive J. Hutchens acknowledged that entry-fee communities should benefit from demographics but stated that Ventas remains focused on its rental model.

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the funding strategy for 2025 acquisitions and the potential financial impact if the entire Brookdale lease transitions to the SHOP portfolio.

Answer

CFO Robert Probst indicated that the successful strategy of equity-funding senior housing investments to drive growth and improve the balance sheet is one they hope to continue. CEO Debra Cafaro noted that because the Brookdale lease is well-covered, the assets generate more EBITDAR than cash rent, which is a favorable factor in any transition scenario.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked how much of the FFO guidance increase was driven by the improved same-store outlook versus the one-time accounting item.

Answer

CFO Glenn Cohen clarified that more than half of the guidance increase was driven by core operational performance. This includes stronger rent commencements from the SNO pipeline and successful backfills of bankrupt tenant space, making the operational component the bulk of the raise.

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for the company's year-end fiscal occupancy target, given the Q1 level and the anticipated dip in Q2.

Answer

David Jamieson, COO, confirmed an expected occupancy dip of about 68 basis points in May due to tenant vacates, but anticipates a recovery as new tenants from the SNO pipeline open. Conor Flynn, CEO, clarified that while they don't provide specific occupancy guidance, they are confident in the strong leasing momentum for both anchor and small shop spaces and aim to maximize occupancy.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the credit quality of the growing medical and wellness tenant category and asked about any history of meaningful bad debt from these tenants.

Answer

CFO Glenn Cohen described these tenants as 'very, very sticky' due to their high initial investment in build-outs and equipment, resulting in 'de minimis' bad debt. CEO Conor Flynn added that the use is internet-resistant, drives convenient traffic, and that the company has been very successful in underwriting these medical tenants without significant issues.

Michael Mueller asked whether the reduction in disposition guidance was a matter of timing or a strategic choice to hold onto more assets.

Answer

President & CIO Ross Cooper attributed the change to a combination of factors. These include gaining more clarity on JV partner plans, which reduced uncertainty, and the significant outperformance of certain RPT assets, which created a desire to hold them for the long term rather than sell.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked whether the decision to lower disposition guidance was a matter of timing or a strategic choice to sell fewer assets.

Answer

President & CIO Ross Cooper explained it was a combination of factors. There is now more clarity on JV partner decisions, and the significant outperformance of certain RPT assets created a desire to hold them longer-term rather than sell them as originally planned.

Michael Mueller requested clarification on the CityPoint loan details and the potential $0.03 FFO dilution, and also followed up on whether the year-end street retail occupancy target remains on track.

Answer

EVP & CFO John Gottfried confirmed the CityPoint loan is in the supplemental and the $0.03 dilution is a 2025 maximum potential impact, not the base case. He also affirmed that the year-end street occupancy target of high 80s to low 90s is still on track.

Michael Mueller inquired about the portion of the portfolio that reports monthly sales and how Acadia would react to a spending slowdown. He also asked how much of the projected street retail occupancy increase is already secured.

Answer

CFO John Gottfried and EVP A.J. Levine explained that while 15-20% of leases officially require sales reporting, they have unofficial visibility into nearly all tenant performance. They use this data to proactively identify underperformers for their 'pry-loose' strategy to recapture space for re-leasing at higher rents. Gottfried confirmed that a 'good portion' of the year-end occupancy target is locked in, as the SNO pipeline is predominantly street retail.

Michael Mueller asked about the likelihood of the City Point loan remaining outstanding for all of 2025 and the company's year-end 2025 physical occupancy target for its street retail portfolio.

Answer

Executive John Gottfried confirmed the base case assumption is that the City Point loan will remain outstanding for the year, based on partner conversations and asset performance, but noted a conversion would be more accretive upon stabilization. For occupancy, Gottfried projected the street portfolio's physical occupancy would rise to be 'in the 90s' by year-end 2025, driven by the conversion of the signed-not-yet-open pipeline.

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the specific location of the new Henderson development relative to Acadia's existing assets. He also inquired about the expected stabilized occupancy level for the Street portfolio by the end of 2024 and 2025.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Bernstein clarified that the Henderson development is an extension of their current holdings, situated on a central vacant parcel that will connect the entire street. Regarding occupancy, he projected the Street portfolio's lease rate would reach approximately 90% by the end of 2025, driven by the signed-not-opened pipeline, with full economic and physical occupancy of 94-95% expected by 2026.

Michael Muller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the expected future mix between ground-up and redevelopment projects and the depth of the current redevelopment pipeline.

Answer

West Region President and CIO Nick Wibbenmeyer responded that while redevelopment will always be a core activity, he expects the majority of future investment starts, in the $250 million-plus annual range, to come from ground-up developments. This shift is driven by the success of the ground-up program and the portfolio's rising occupancy, which naturally limits large-scale redevelopment opportunities.

Michael Mueller pointed out the extremely low bad debt in Q1 and asked why the full-year guidance was maintained, questioning if it was conservatism or if a known, significant tenant issue was anticipated.

Answer

CFO Mike Mas clarified that the low Q1 bad debt was anticipated when guidance was set, driven by strong tenant health and high collections on annual reconciliations. He explained that the outlook has always been a 'first half versus second half story' and that the quarter was in line with their internal expectations, not a result of new conservatism.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan asked if there was any potential to further increase small shop occupancy from its current 94.1% level, or if it should be considered effectively full.

Answer

President and CEO Lisa Palmer gave an emphatic 'yes' before Alan Roth, East Region President and COO, elaborated. Roth stated that 'records are meant to be broken' and that the leasing teams remain hyper-focused on pushing occupancy higher by capitalizing on the strong demand and high-quality portfolio.

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked if management had considered reducing its acquisition guidance for the year. He also questioned the potential impact on 2026 earnings if the anticipated second-half acquisitions failed to materialize.

Answer

CEO William Crooker confirmed that all guidance components, including acquisitions, are thoroughly evaluated, and the company remains comfortable with the current range. He noted that a complete lack of acquisitions for the rest of 2025, which he does not expect, would have a minimal impact on 2025 FFO, but declined to provide specific sensitivity for 2026 guidance.

Michael Mueller questioned if demand was muted across all segments or if some areas were holding up better, and asked for more context on leasing tour activity in markets like Greenville.

Answer

CFO Matts Pinard pushed back on the premise of muted demand, asserting that demand is still present but taking longer to convert into signed leases, with 3PLs remaining active. He noted that leasing activity was very strong before recent macro uncertainty. Regarding tours in markets like Greenville, he described activity as 'flat to slightly down' compared to a month or two ago, but emphasized the quality of prospective tenants is higher, suggesting a greater likelihood of deals being completed.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked whether Brixmor's interest in the La Centerra property was contingent on the presence of Trader Joe's and if the pricing would have differed without the grocer.

Answer

An executive, likely EVP & CIO Mark Horgan, responded that while grocery exposure is desirable, the key consideration for any asset is the ability to drive value from the date of acquisition. He explained that if a grocer wasn't present, the analysis would have focused on whether one could be added accretively to enhance the center's tenancy and value.

Michael Mueller requested a detailed walk-through of the same-store NOI guidance, asking how Brixmor arrives at the 4% midpoint despite significant headwinds. He also asked about the spread between acquisition and disposition cap rates.

Answer

President and COO Brian Finnegan explained that growth is driven by the consistent stacking of commenced rents, redevelopment deliveries, and contractual rent bumps, which overcomes the disruption. CEO James Taylor added that the company has been accretively recycling capital, selling lower cap rate assets and reinvesting the proceeds into value-add acquisitions at 6-7% initial cap rates.

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. requested a breakdown of how Brixmor arrives at its 4% same-store NOI growth guidance midpoint given significant headwinds, and also asked about the spread between acquisition and disposition cap rates.

Answer

President & COO Brian Finnegan clarified that a portion of the headwinds is a historical bad debt run rate, not entirely incremental. He emphasized that growth is driven by the stacking of rent commencements, contractual bumps, and strong renewal spreads. CEO James Taylor added that dispositions of lower-cap rate assets have funded accretive acquisitions in the 6-7% cap rate range.

Michael Mueller asked when the spread between leased and economic occupancy might return to normalized levels, given that build occupancy is rising.

Answer

CEO Jim Taylor agreed with the premise and suggested that, given the delivery timeline of leases that have already been signed and are commencing, the spread would likely normalize sometime in 2026.

Michael Mueller asked when the spread between leased occupancy and economic (billed) occupancy might return to normalized levels as billed occupancy continues to rise.

Answer

CEO James Taylor concurred with the premise and estimated that a normalization of the spread is likely to occur sometime in 2026, considering the delivery timeline of leases that have already been signed and are in the process of commencing.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked whether the pace of occupancy gains changes materially once a property's occupancy crosses the 90% threshold.

Answer

CEO Shankh Mitra explained that while it's complex and depends on unit mix versus demand, less available inventory in a rising demand environment should generally make leasing easier. He also noted it is harder to get a property to 95% occupancy than it is to keep it there. Vice Chairman & COO John Burkart added that the ultimate focus is on total revenue, which combines both occupancy and rate growth.

Michael Mueller asked what portion of the same-store SHO portfolio is considered stabilized and how RevPOR growth in those assets compares to the portfolio's 6% average.

Answer

CEO Shankh Mitra clarified that the cohort of properties with 90%+ occupancy, representing about half the portfolio, achieved RevPOR growth of over 7%. In contrast, the least occupied cohort had nearly flat RevPOR growth, highlighting the strong correlation between high occupancy and pricing power.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the stabilization timeline for the $2 billion of developments in process and how that trend compares to the pre-COVID era.

Answer

CFO Tim McHugh clarified that the development pipeline is mainly active adult and outpatient medical. Outpatient medical is typically pre-leased, while active adult properties have a shorter lease-up period of 12-18 months, which is faster than traditional senior housing.

Michael Mueller asked for a quantification of the potential annualized margin improvement at the property level resulting from the tech platform rollout so far.

Answer

Shankh Mitra (CEO & CIO) declined to speculate on a specific number but reiterated the company's belief that the operating platform will help achieve margins higher than pre-COVID levels. He emphasized the focus is on improving the overall platform and occupancy, not just a single margin number from technology.

Michael Muller asked if there is a maximum portfolio allocation for shadow-anchored or unanchored centers and questioned the typical cap rate differential between a traditional grocery-anchored center and a shadow-anchored one.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Jeffrey Edison indicated a potential maximum of around 10% for unanchored centers, while viewing shadow-anchored centers as interchangeable with the core portfolio. He estimated that shadow-anchored assets can be acquired at a 50-75 basis point higher cap rate, targeting a 50-100 basis point wider unlevered IRR.

Michael Mueller asked which retail categories within PECO's portfolio would likely be the first to experience a pullback in demand if the economy were to enter a recession.

Answer

CEO Jeffrey Edison explained that historically, discretionary categories are impacted first as consumers trade down. However, he noted that grocers typically benefit from recessions as people eat at home more. He also pointed out a counter-trend where fast-casual dining has shown resilience and growth in past downturns, suggesting it has become more of a necessity for consumers. He reiterated that a deep recession would require a major change in employment, which they do not anticipate.

Michael Mueller asked for an update on the average portfolio blended rent escalator and its potential trajectory over the next three to five years.

Answer

CFO John Caulfield stated that the portfolio's average annual rent bump is currently around 100 basis points, up from ~60 basis points a few years ago. He expects this to continue increasing, potentially reaching a range of 120 to 150 basis points over time as leases roll. CEO Jeffrey Edison added that the target for new and renewal leases is a 3% annual growth rate.

Michael Mueller asked for early thoughts on managing the interest rate swaps expiring next year and the term loans coming due in 2026.

Answer

CFO John Caulfield outlined the company's strategy to be a long-term issuer in the unsecured bond market, as demonstrated by two offerings this year. He explained that the swaps are tied to prepayable term loans and that PECO will opportunistically access the bond market to term out debt, aiming for a well-laddered maturity profile with approximately 10% of debt maturing annually.

Michael Muller of JPMorgan Chase asked for an update on the view expressed at NAREIT that the company was sitting on the sidelines for acquisitions in anticipation of more attractive values in the future. He questioned if that thesis is playing out and if the pivot point for deployment is getting closer.

Answer

CEO Scott Brinker confirmed they are 'two months closer' to that pivot point. He reiterated the thesis that if the market is challenging for an established incumbent like Healthpeak, it is 'infinitely tougher' for new entrants, which creates opportunities. He noted that outreach from lenders and investors about distressed situations is frequent, confirming the opportunity set is materializing.

Michael Muller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for an update on the company's view that acquisition values would become more attractive and whether they are closer to deploying capital.

Answer

CEO Scott Brinker confirmed they are 'two months closer' to that point and that their thesis is proving correct. He noted that the challenging environment for even established players is 'infinitely tougher' for new entrants, leading to a growing opportunity set as evidenced by increased inbound calls from lenders and investors regarding distressed situations.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned the strategy for the company's 1,000-acre land bank, asking about plans for further acquisitions and if certain parcels might remain undeveloped for longer.

Answer

President and CEO Marshall Loeb stated that the land bank is managed on a market-by-market basis to ensure inventory is available for existing tenant expansions. He acknowledged that finding and zoning land is increasingly difficult. While some land in slower-growth markets like San Antonio may have a longer development timeline, the primary goal is to maintain a ready supply in key submarkets to meet future demand.

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the company's land bank of approximately 1,000 acres, inquiring about plans for near-term additions and whether certain parcels are likely to remain undeveloped for a longer period.

Answer

President and CEO Marshall Loeb explained that the land bank is managed on a market-by-market basis to ensure inventory is available for existing tenant expansions, which historically account for a third of development leasing. He noted that finding and zoning suitable infill land is increasingly difficult. While some land in slower-growing markets like San Antonio might be developed over a longer timeframe, the primary goal is to have sites ready to meet demand in core, high-growth markets.

Michael Mueller asked if there were any specific project characteristics that led to certain developments being removed from the 2025 start guidance.

Answer

Executive Marshall Loeb clarified that the decision was a 'high-level change' driven by corporate-level unease about the economy, not by issues with any specific projects. He described it as 'nervous people at corporate' prudently assuming that general uncertainty could push some start dates into 2026, rather than a reaction to on-the-ground changes for particular developments.

Michael Mueller questioned the reason for the increase in development yields from 6.8% to 7.5%, asking if it was driven by interest rates or market risk, and if 7.5% is the new target for future projects.

Answer

President and CEO Marshall Loeb attributed the higher yields to a combination of lower construction costs and positive rent growth, not changes in the 10-year Treasury rate. He explained that projects are typically underwritten at a ~7% yield using current rents, but final yields often rise 80-90 basis points by completion, representing significant value creation compared to acquiring assets at much lower cap rates.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked if there was anything unusual in property operating expenses or recoveries during the quarter, noting a lighter expense ratio. He also sought clarification on how 'development leasing' in the guidance relates to the in-service portfolio versus the active development pipeline.

Answer

CFO Scott Musil explained that the lower expense ratio in Q2 is a normal pattern resulting from the company's GAAP accounting for equity-based compensation, which causes a higher expense hit in Q1 and subsequently elevated margins in Q2-Q4. He clarified that the development leasing discussed in the guidance pertains to properties that have already been completed and are in the in-service portfolio.

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan asked about potential anomalies in property operating expenses for the quarter and sought clarification on whether 'development leasing' in guidance refers to properties already in the in-service portfolio.

Answer

CFO Scott Musil explained that the lower expense ratio was due to the timing of tenure-based equity compensation, which caused a spike in Q1 expenses and thus elevated margins in subsequent quarters. He also confirmed that the 1.5 million sq. ft. of development leasing in the guidance pertains to properties that are already in the in-service portfolio.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked how land pricing for the recently acquired Philadelphia parcel has changed over the past year. He also questioned if there was any consideration of pausing the two new Q2 development starts given recent market uncertainty.

Answer

EVP Peter Schultz estimated that the market value of the Philadelphia land is likely double what they paid, as it was put under contract several years ago before a prolonged entitlement process. CEO Peter Baccile stated they proceeded with the two new starts because the projects target smaller, local, and regional tenants that are not expected to be significantly impacted by international trade and tariff issues.

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked how the price for the recently acquired Philadelphia land parcel has changed over time and why the company proceeded with its Q2 development starts despite market turbulence.

Answer

EVP Peter Schultz estimated the market value of the Philadelphia land is likely double what the company paid, as it was put under contract years ago. CEO Peter Baccile explained the two new starts are not expected to rely on trade-related tenants and are aimed at smaller, local, and regional users, making them prudent projects regardless of the tariff situation.

Mike Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked if any specific geographies or sizes stood out in the remaining 2025 lease expirations and sought a ballpark figure for 2025 development starts.

Answer

Executive Vice President of Operations Christopher Schneider confirmed the remaining 2025 expirations are broad-based with nothing notable standing out. President and CEO Peter Baccile declined to provide a specific volume forecast for 2025 development starts, citing potential market shifts, but reiterated that the focus would be on Pennsylvania, Texas, and Florida.

Michael Mueller asked for clarification on the comment that future asset sales would be lower, questioning what this implies for the pace of development starts and the linkage between the two.

Answer

CEO Peter Baccile clarified that dispositions and development starts are disconnected. He explained that the company's multi-year program of reallocating capital from lower-growth to higher-growth assets is now 'essentially over.' Future developments will be funded through retained cash flow, debt, equity, and much smaller dispositions, so the lower sales volume will not negatively impact the pace of new starts.

Michael Muller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the low 4% cap rate on recent asset sales, the influence of user-buyers, and the current cap rate band for properties with at-market rents.

Answer

Co-CEO Howard Schwimmer confirmed that user sales were a key factor in achieving premium values, citing a sale in Orange County at a 3.5% cap rate to a company planning for battery storage. He estimated that for stabilized, at-market leased properties, cap rates are currently in the 5% range, plus or minus.

Michael Muller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked if the low 4% cap rate on recent dispositions was influenced by user-buyers and inquired about the current cap rate range for stabilized, at-market properties.

Answer

Co-CEO Howard Schwimmer confirmed that user-buyers were a key factor in achieving premium values on dispositions, citing a specific sale at a 3.5% cap rate. For stabilized properties with at-market rents, he stated that cap rates are currently in the "five, zone plus or minus."

Michael Muller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the low 4% cap rate on recent asset sales, the influence of user-buyers, and the current cap rate band for comparable properties with at-market rents.

Answer

Co-CEO Howard Schwimmer confirmed that the company has capitalized on premium pricing by selling to users, citing a specific sale in Orange County for a battery storage conversion that achieved a 3.5% cap rate. For stabilized, at-market leased properties, he estimated that market cap rates are currently in the 'five zone, plus or minus.'

Michael Muller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked how much user purchases influenced the low 4% cap rate on recent asset sales and inquired about the current cap rate band for properties with at-market rents.

Answer

Co-CEO & Director Howard Schwimmer confirmed that sales to users were a key factor in achieving premium values, citing a specific deal in Orange County that sold at a 3.5% cap rate. For stabilized properties with at-market leases, he estimated that cap rates are currently in the 5% range, plus or minus.

Michael Muller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked if the low-4% cap rate on recent asset sales was influenced by user-buyers and inquired about the current cap rate range for a comparable, at-market-rent property.

Answer

Co-CEO & Director Howard Schwimmer confirmed that user sales were a key factor in achieving premium values, citing a specific sale in Orange County at a 3.5% cap rate. For stabilized properties with at-market rents, he estimated that market cap rates are currently in the 'five percent zone, plus or minus.'

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the anticipated pace of redevelopment and repositioning starts over the next 12 months compared to the past couple of years.

Answer

CFO Michael Fitzmaurice detailed the net NOI impact, projecting a $15 million net contribution for 2025. This results from $30 million in incremental NOI coming online, weighted towards the second half of the year, offset by $15 million from properties coming offline for redevelopment, which will occur more ratably throughout the year than previously expected.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for context on the sequential decline in leasing volume from 3.2 million square feet in Q1 to 1.0 million in Q4, and how that trend is expected to play out in 2025.

Answer

COO Laura Clark explained that the Q4 leasing volume was in line with expectations, influenced by fewer lease expirations and a slower demand environment. She highlighted a significant pickup in early 2025, with 1.0 million square feet leased year-to-date, matching the entire Q4 volume. This includes 200,000 square feet from repositioning projects, with active negotiations underway for approximately 90% of the company's vacant spaces.

Michael Mueller inquired about the characteristics of the $90 million in pending dispositions, the strategy for funding future acquisitions, and the reasons for sequential occupancy declines in the San Diego and Ventura markets.

Answer

Co-CEO Howard Schwimmer deferred specifics on the dispositions until they close. CFO Laura Clark stated that funding for the $200 million acquisition pipeline and redevelopment spend would come from available liquidity, including forward equity. She explained that occupancy dips in San Diego and Ventura were due to a small number of move-outs, with some space already re-leased at strong spreads.

Michael Mueller from JP Morgan Chase & Co. questioned whether potential tariff dynamics would cause Prologis to pivot back into regional markets it had previously exited.

Answer

CEO Hamid Moghadam stated it was unlikely, noting a past re-entry into Savannah was not a great idea in hindsight. President Dan Letter affirmed the current strategy, stating the company is focused on its 75 global consumption centers, which account for ~78% of world GDP, and they believe they are in the right markets.

Michael Mueller asked how UPS's decision to downsize its exposure to Amazon might impact Prologis over the next couple of years.

Answer

Hamid Moghadam, CEO, stated that the issue has not impacted their relationship with UPS. He confirmed that business with UPS has continued, and Prologis has recently signed some significant leases with them, indicating no discernible negative effect on their operations.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for the FFO contribution from the solar business in 2024 and the assumption for 2025.

Answer

CFO Timothy Arndt provided detail for the broader Essentials businesses, stating they contributed $0.07 to $0.08 per share in 2024 and are expected to contribute $0.10 to $0.14 in 2025. He clarified that this is predominantly from the solar and operating essentials segments, with limited contribution from mobility at present.

Michael Mueller asked if any specific regions or pockets within the portfolio were responsible for the increase in the development stabilization guidance.

Answer

An executive responded that there was no specific regional trend driving the change, as the company's development stabilization book is spread globally.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked what portion of the Forever 21 re-leasing activity involves leasing to single users versus breaking up the spaces for multiple smaller tenants.

Answer

Doug Healey, SVP of Leasing, responded that it is a mixed bag. He stated that while the majority of the former Forever 21 spaces are being leased as-is, some of the larger anchor store spaces may be broken up. He emphasized the opportunity to bring in high-demand tenants like Zara or Primark and more than double the previous rent.

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked a high-level question about whether there have been any notable changes in the interest from third-party capital for traditional regional malls since the beginning of the year.

Answer

President and CEO Jackson Hsieh responded that he found it encouraging that the buyer of The Oaks, an asset needing significant redevelopment, was able to secure debt financing. He viewed this as a compelling and positive sign for monetizing other similar assets, noting that this level of lender interest was not as evident when he started in March. He acknowledged that while there haven't been many trades of A+ centers, the capital flowing into B-level opportunities is a positive development.

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for an estimate of current stabilized third-party acquisition multiples and how underwriting and return requirements for new developments have changed recently.

Answer

CEO George Chappelle declined to provide a specific number for acquisition multiples, calling current market expectations unrealistic. President of Americas Rob Chambers stated that development underwriting standards have not changed, as the company remains focused on low-risk projects like partnerships, expansions, and customer-dedicated builds where return expectations are firm.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the specific customer feedback indicating a market normalization and whether this trend was concentrated in particular segments. He also asked for the company's view on what normalized physical and economic occupancy ranges should be in the long term.

Answer

CEO George Chappelle stated that current customer inventory levels are very low, which will necessitate a build to meet seasonal demand, signaling stabilization across all segments. While short-term occupancy is hard to predict, Chappelle reiterated that the company's long-range goal remains in the mid-80% range and that Americold has proven its ability to grow profitability even in the current lower-occupancy environment.

Michael Mueller asked if the new 12% warehouse services margin is a sustainable go-forward base or just a target for the current year. He also questioned if the 10% year-over-year increase in service revenue per pallet was receiving any customer pushback given weaker volumes.

Answer

CEO George Chappelle confirmed that 12% is the new sustainable annual base for services margins going forward, not a ceiling. He explained that the higher Q3 margin was partly due to throughput over-delivery, highlighting the accretive nature of volume return. He also noted that pricing comps for handling services are expected to compress and normalize in Q4, similar to how rent and storage pricing already did in Q3.

Michael Mueller questioned how much of the projected 97.3% year-end occupancy consists of short-term leases and asked about the company's acquisition capacity beyond the current pipeline before needing to raise additional equity.

Answer

Executive Anthony Saladino estimated that short-term leases contribute about 25 basis points to the projected occupancy and confirmed the 97.3% figure already accounts for a known 130 basis point vacancy in Q4. He also stated that after the current pipeline, there remains a couple of hundred million dollars in acquisition capacity, with asset recycling as a potential funding source before needing to access equity markets.

Michael Mueller asked about the Columbus property, specifically how the rent for the two new prospects compares to the departing tenant's rent and the timing of the transition. He also inquired if there were any other large, known move-outs expected in the 2026 lease expirations.

Answer

EVP of Asset Management James Connolly explained the current tenant moves out at the end of June, with new leases expected to commence between July and September. He noted that while the lease structure might change to gross from triple net, the net effective rent would be slightly higher. Regarding 2026, Connolly stated that the year looks fine with no projected move-outs at this point.

Michael Mueller asked about the total size of the potential disposition pool of single-tenant and lower-growth assets. He also inquired about the types of tenants signing leases with rent escalators of 4% or higher.

Answer

Chairman and CEO John Kite estimated that roughly 10% of the portfolio could be considered for repositioning over time, starting with assets in the 6 states where KRG owns only a single property. He explained that the 70% of small shop leases with 4%+ bumps were signed with tenants like high-volume restaurants and service providers, driven by strong demand and low vacancy in desirable centers.

Michael Mueller sought clarification on whether management's comment about allocating retained cash flow to 'select developments' was focused specifically on One Loudoun or mixed-use projects in general. He also asked if Kite Realty is considering any new developments that are purely retail-driven.

Answer

CEO John Kite clarified that the comment referred to a broader strategy of deploying free cash flow into development and redevelopment projects as the company's lease-up phase matures, not just One Loudoun. He confirmed that KRG does pursue retail-only developments when the opportunity is right, citing the recent successful delivery of a Fresh Market-anchored center in Florida, built on land adjacent to an existing KRG property, as a prime example.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked whether the sequential changes in leased and occupancy rates were organic or influenced by the mix of asset sales during the quarter.

Answer

CFO Conor Fennerty confirmed the change was organic and not materially impacted by transactions in Q1. He explained that the sequential decline was partly driven by a strategic decision to hold certain spaces offline for dispositions, as some buyers prefer to receive the space vacant to execute their own leasing plan.

Michael Mueller of J.P. Morgan asked for an explanation of the disconnect between the company's positive sales growth and its negative NOI growth, and also requested a projection for year-end 2020 occupancy.

Answer

CEO Stephen Lebovitz explained that while well-positioned retailers are driving sales growth, the significant negative NOI impact is a result of numerous bankruptcies and store closures from struggling retailers like Payless and Gymboree, which totaled 900,000 square feet. He declined to provide specific occupancy guidance for 2020, citing uncertainty around future retailer performance.

Michael Mueller asked for an explanation of the disconnect between the company's positive sales growth and its negative NOI growth. He also requested a forecast for the portfolio's occupancy level by the end of 2020.

Answer

CEO Stephen Lebovitz explained that the divergence is caused by two distinct retailer groups: well-performing, adapted retailers driving sales growth, and the significant drag from numerous 2019 bankruptcies and store closures that negatively impacted rental income and NOI. He declined to provide specific 2020 year-end occupancy guidance, stating it was too dependent on future, uncertain retailer performance.

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for management's general outlook on the unbudgeted bankruptcy reserve for 2020, questioning if they felt it would be similar to, better, or worse than the $8 million to $10 million projected for 2019.

Answer

CEO Stephen Lebovitz declined to provide a specific forecast, explaining that the company's process has improved by incorporating more known factors directly into the budget. He emphasized that waiting until closer to the February announcement allows for a more accurate estimate, as the retail landscape can change quickly.

Michael Mueller of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for a qualitative outlook on the unidentified bankruptcy reserve for 2020, questioning if it would likely be similar to, better, or worse than the $8 million to $10 million projected for 2019.

Answer

CEO Stephen Lebovitz declined to give a specific gut feeling, explaining that the company's forecasting process has improved, allowing more known impacts to be built directly into the budget rather than the reserve. He emphasized that there are still many uncontrollable factors and that the company will provide its best estimate for the 2020 reserve and same-center performance closer to year-end to ensure it is based on the most current information.

Michael Mueller asked about the safety of the dividend level, questioning if a dividend cut was expected due to tenant issues. He also asked if management's mention of refinancing was a specific reference to the Lakeway facility.

Answer

CEO John McRoberts and CFO Jeffery Walraven stated they do not anticipate any dividend cut, citing a conservative AFFO payout ratio of around 68%. They asserted that even a potential rent reduction from the Texas Ten re-tenanting would not necessitate a dividend cut. They also confirmed that refinancing the Lakeway facility is a viable option that they are actively exploring.

Michael Mueller from JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned if OnPointe's 48% Medicaid revenue exposure was a normal level for the portfolio and asked for details on the timing and composition of the $45 million in committed but unfunded capital.

Answer

Executive VP and CFO Jeffery Walraven confirmed that the Medicaid exposure has been historically stable for this specific portfolio and directed Mueller to a chart in the investor presentation for historical data. Walraven also detailed that the $45 million commitment is comprised of several previously announced loan fundings and is expected to be deployed pro rata throughout the remainder of the year.