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    Michael RehautJPMorgan Chase & Co.

    Michael Rehaut's questions to Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) leadership

    Michael Rehaut's questions to Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked if rising incentives implied a likely gross margin moderation in fiscal 2026. He also sought to understand the demand impact from the recent decline in mortgage rates relative to other factors like seasonality.

    Answer

    Douglas Yearley, Chairman & CEO, deferred specific 2026 margin guidance to the December call but highlighted the comfort provided by the high-margin backlog. Martin Connor, CFO, noted that significant margin erosion has already occurred over the past year. Regarding interest rates, Mr. Yearley stated there has been no immediate, measurable impact on sales from the recent rate drop, attributing the lack of response to the August timing and the psychology of their luxury buyer, but he remains encouraged about the future impact.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut sought to confirm if the reiterated full-year guidance already incorporates the continuation of 'mixed' market results and asked for historical incentive data and the outlook on land cost inflation.

    Answer

    Executive Chairman Douglas Yearley confirmed the guidance assumes the current mixed market will continue. He stated Q1 2024 incentives were $55,000 and described current land cost inflation as modest, in the 'low to mid-single digit' range. CFO Martin Connor added that this inflation does not impact 2025 projections, as the land is already under contract.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Michael Rehaut asked for a breakdown of the Q1 gross margin dip between mix and incentives, and questioned if market volatility might alter the company's spec home strategy.

    Answer

    Executive Chairman and CEO Douglas Yearley attributed approximately 80% of the Q1 margin pressure to geographic mix and 20% to higher incentives on finished specs. CFO Martin Connor and Mr. Yearley both affirmed the company's commitment to the spec strategy, highlighting its crucial role in driving higher returns on equity, increasing revenue, and improving capital efficiency, calling the current mix 'perfect' for the business.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Owens Corning (OC) leadership

    Michael Rehaut's questions to Owens Corning (OC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut asked about the Doors business, questioning the drivers for the Q3 margin guidance and the long-term path to achieving a 20%+ EBITDA margin, considering the business's pre-acquisition performance.

    Answer

    CEO Brian Chambers clarified the Q3 margin guide is in line with Q2, supported by sequential volume stability. He affirmed a long-term target of 20%+ EBITDA margins, driven by three factors: achieving the initial $125 million synergy target, realizing an additional $75 million in savings from network optimization, and leveraging commercial integration with Owens Corning's other product lines to drive growth.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Owens Corning (OC) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut asked about concerns regarding scheduled capacity additions in the insulation sector, given the uncertain macroeconomic environment.

    Answer

    CFO Todd Fister explained that the insulation industry can support housing starts between 1.4 million and 1.5 million units, supported by long-term underbuilding in the U.S. He differentiated between flexible 'loosefill' capacity and less flexible 'bat and roll' capacity, noting the industry has a wide range of asset cost structures to manage supply.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Owens Corning (OC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Michael Rehaut asked for an outlook on pricing trends and pricing power in 2025 for the Roofing, Insulation, and Doors segments, given potential softness in residential markets.

    Answer

    CEO Brian Chambers stated that pricing trends are mixed. Roofing remains strong with good demand and an announced April price increase. The Doors business is seeing stable market pricing, though OC is making targeted adjustments. CFO Todd Fister added that residential insulation industry utilization was in the high 90% range in Q4, supporting a positive pricing environment.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to TopBuild Corp (BLD) leadership

    Michael Rehaut's questions to TopBuild Corp (BLD) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the Progressive Roofing acquisition's margin impact and synergy potential, and also asked about the drivers behind the weaker residential outlook and its potential to extend into 2026.

    Answer

    CFO Rob Kunins stated Progressive will add ~$215M in H2 sales with EBITDA margins around 20%, in line with the core business. CEO Robert Buck highlighted a data center project as an example of cross-selling synergies. Kunins attributed the weaker residential guidance to deteriorating single-family starts, while Buck provided color on mixed geographic trends.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to TopBuild Corp (BLD) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for clarification on the reiterated full-year guidance, seeking to understand what factors offset the newly lowered outlook for the residential business.

    Answer

    CFO Rob Kuhns detailed the offsetting factors. He explained that while the single-family outlook was revised downward, this was counterbalanced by better-than-expected pricing realization in Q1, a more optimistic outlook for commercial and industrial sales, and an incremental $10 million in revenue from the recent Seal-Rite acquisition.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to TopBuild Corp (BLD) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Michael Rehaut of JPMorgan Chase & Co. requested clarification on the percentage of sales from the commercial and spray foam businesses. He also asked about the M&A backdrop for medium-to-large deals following the terminated SPI transaction and the prospects across TopBuild's verticals.

    Answer

    CFO Rob Kuhns detailed that C&I represents about 35% of total sales, while spray foam is 10-15%. CEO Robert Buck described the M&A pipeline as very active across all end markets, including 'chunky' deals. He emphasized that TopBuild's core competencies in running a dispersed branch network, managing labor, and leveraging its supply chain open up avenues for future acquisitions, giving them a good line of sight for the next 2-3 years.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Trex Company Inc (TREX) leadership

    Michael Rehaut's questions to Trex Company Inc (TREX) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for context on the 170 basis points of market share gained from wood decking and questioned the rationale for a price increase on decking products, which are less affected by tariffs.

    Answer

    President & CEO Bryan Fairbanks explained the 170 bps gain occurred over 18 months and that the rate of conversion varies, citing external data and channel partner feedback as sources. He declined to elaborate on the company's specific pricing strategy or the price/volume mix within the full-year revenue guidance.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Trex Company Inc (TREX) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for context on the 170 basis points of market share gained from wood, its comparison to prior years, and the rationale for price increases on decking. He also asked for a price vs. volume breakdown of the growth guidance.

    Answer

    President & CEO Bryan Fairbanks explained that the rate of wood conversion varies and is currently impacted by a weaker low-end consumer, but the trend remains positive. He noted they use external data and channel feedback for this metric. He declined to discuss specific pricing strategy or the price/volume mix of guidance on the call.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Trex Company Inc (TREX) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut asked how the high product vitality, with new products accounting for 22% of sales, is impacting financial metrics like margins and market share. He also sought insight into the market drivers behind the stabilization of entry-level product demand.

    Answer

    CEO Bryan Fairbanks explained that the product vitality metric highlights the success of recent R&D investments and product launches. He attributed the stabilization in the entry-level segment to significant pent-up demand in the repair and remodel market, as many of the 50 million wood decks in North America are at or beyond their useful life, making composite conversion an attractive option for homeowners.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Trex Company Inc (TREX) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Michael Rehaut sought clarification on whether the 2025 EBITDA margin target of over 31% is inclusive of startup costs. He also asked for a conceptual explanation for the sell-through divergence between premium and lower-end products.

    Answer

    CFO Brenda Lovik confirmed the 31%+ margin target is an adjusted figure that excludes onetime startup and transition costs. CEO Bryan Fairbanks explained the lower-end product weakness stems from inflation impacting lower-income consumers, but emphasized that composites are still gaining share from wood, which is declining at a faster rate.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Masco Corp (MAS) leadership

    Michael Rehaut's questions to Masco Corp (MAS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about Q2 demand trends, the specific breakdown of tariff mitigation actions, and the quantification of non-repeating Q2 cost benefits.

    Answer

    CEO John Nudi noted stable trends in Plumbing and a continued dynamic of soft DIY and strong Pro in Paint. CFO Rick Westenberg explained that the $140 million in-year tariff impact will be offset by cost reductions and pricing. He also quantified that of the $27 million SG&A reduction in Q2, about half was from the Kichler divestiture and half from favorable, non-repeating cost items.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Masco Corp (MAS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut inquired about recent top-line trends through April for both the paint and plumbing segments and asked for any outlook on Q2 revenue. He also sought to dimensionalize the tariff mitigation efforts, particularly the magnitude of price increases and any expected demand elasticity.

    Answer

    President and CEO Keith Allman noted continued strength in e-commerce and International Plumbing, but softening in U.S. trade and retail channels, especially in DIY paint, which he expects to persist. CFO Richard Westenberg explained that mitigation involves pricing, cost cuts, and sourcing changes, with pricing being a major near-term lever. However, the company declined to quantify specific price increases or the potential impact on demand elasticity due to the high level of uncertainty.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK) leadership

    Michael Rehaut's questions to Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for clarification on the Q2 earnings beat, why the upside didn't fully translate to the annual guidance, and the company's ability to recover the projected $0.65 tariff headwind in 2026.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Patrick D. Hallinan explained the Q2 beat was primarily due to the timing of a discrete tax benefit and some tariff expense recognition, which will balance out in the second half. He stated that for 2026, the company expects mitigation strategies and pricing actions to largely offset the estimated $800 million run-rate tariff expense, allowing for margin accretion in the back half of the year.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for confirmation on the potential size of the second price increase, suggesting a mid-single-digit range. He also sought to clarify if the guidance for Q2 implies that earnings per share will be 'minimally positive.'

    Answer

    COO Chris Nelson corrected the assumption, stating the second price increase would likely be higher than the first, though he did not provide a specific figure. An executive, likely EVP and CFO Pat Hallinan, confirmed that Q2 earnings, on both a pretax and after-tax basis, are indeed expected to be positive but 'minimally so.'

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Michael Rehaut sought clarification on the tariff impact, asking how the current $90-$100 million estimate for a 10% tariff reconciles with a previous $200 million estimate for a larger tariff increase. He also asked about the timing of mitigation efforts and exposure to potential Mexico tariffs.

    Answer

    CFO Pat Hallinan clarified that the previous scenario was for a larger tariff percentage on a narrower set of SKUs (List 301), while the current scenario is a smaller 10% tariff on all China imports. CEO Don Allan confirmed that initial mitigation steps will be pricing, while the company simultaneously accelerates permanent supply chain fixes. Regarding Mexico, Hallinan noted it represents about 20% of global COGS and any potential tariffs there would be handled with a similar measured approach.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Mohawk Industries Inc (MHK) leadership

    Michael Rehaut's questions to Mohawk Industries Inc (MHK) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut sought clarification on whether the expected Q4 year-over-year improvement applies to margins, asked for details on where competitive pricing is most pervasive, and questioned if there were abnormal actions by importers in response to tariffs.

    Answer

    CFO James Brunk confirmed that the anticipated Q4 improvement includes margins. Chairman & CEO Jeffrey Lorberbaum explained that while pricing pressure varies, the industry is at a cyclical bottom and will likely have to pass through high tariff costs. He added that while importers, including Mohawk, increased inventory, he did not observe excessive pre-buying from customers.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Mohawk Industries Inc (MHK) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut requested more granularity on the revenue impact from pricing in Flooring North America for Q2 and Q3. He also asked for a breakdown of the countries of origin for the ~$500 million in imports subject to tariffs.

    Answer

    Executive James Brunk clarified that recent price increases have been selective to offset specific raw material costs and that overall pricing remains pressured. President and COO Paul De Cock detailed that a big component of the tariffed imports is LVT, largely from Vietnam, with other sourcing from countries like India and Korea. He reminded that products from their Mexican facilities are not subject to these tariffs.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Mohawk Industries Inc (MHK) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Michael Rehaut asked for clarification that the guidance for 'normal seasonality' in Q2 is based on an adjusted Q1 performance, excluding the system issue impact. He also requested quantification of the expected Q1 impacts from currency fluctuations and rising natural gas costs.

    Answer

    CFO James Brunk confirmed that the Q2 seasonality outlook should be applied to a Q1 baseline that excludes the system issue impact. He noted the natural gas cost impact would be limited in Q1 but ramp up in Q2 and Q3. For currency, he estimated a negative operating income impact of approximately $7-$10 million in Q1 due to the stronger dollar.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Meritage Homes Corp (MTH) leadership

    Michael Rehaut's questions to Meritage Homes Corp (MTH) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut questioned the decision to withdraw full-year guidance, asking if factors beyond visibility were involved. He also asked for clarification on the year-over-year gross margin decline, specifically the role of incentives.

    Answer

    CEO Phillippe Lord and CFO Hilla Sferruzza emphasized that pulling guidance was solely due to a lack of visibility from their high backlog conversion rate, which leaves future quarters with no sold homes at the start of the period. Hilla Sferruzza clarified the margin pressure stems from increased *utilization* of financing incentives by buyers, which lowers the average selling price (ASP), rather than an increase in the cost of the incentives themselves. This lower revenue also drives the negative operating leverage.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Meritage Homes Corp (MTH) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut asked what factors are allowing Meritage to maintain its guidance amid industry volatility and inquired about the current M&A and land market backdrop.

    Answer

    CEO Phillippe Lord attributed their performance to hitting Q1 targets, positive April trends, and strong community count growth. He highlighted their move-in-ready inventory strategy as a key differentiator. On M&A, he noted that while deal flow is high, underwriting is challenging. He sees opportunities in the land market to renegotiate terms and confirmed they walked away from 1,500 lots in Q1 due to sellers' unwillingness to adjust prices.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Meritage Homes Corp (MTH) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Michael Rehaut asked about the primary drivers for the Q1 2025 gross margin guidance, questioning the impact of incentives versus other factors like lot costs and community mix. He also inquired if Meritage would need to increase incentives to meet its full-year closings guidance if the market remains soft.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Hilla Sferruzza explained that the Q1 margin guidance is primarily a function of current market incentives, given the high number of homes sold and closed within the same quarter. CEO Phillippe Lord added that the company feels comfortable with its full-year closings guidance in a 7% mortgage rate environment with the current incentive structure, but noted that improved rates could lead to better performance.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Meritage Homes Corp (MTH) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Michael Rehaut asked about the cadence of incentives during Q3, their current level as a percentage of sales price compared to pre-COVID norms, and the general availability of finished lots across the company's footprint.

    Answer

    CFO Hilla Sferruzza stated that incentives are currently running several hundred basis points above the pre-COVID norm of 3-6%. CEO Phillippe Lord characterized the availability of finished lots as 'scarce, beyond scarce,' a long-standing market condition that reinforces their strategy of self-developing nearly 90% of their lots.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC) leadership

    Michael Rehaut's questions to Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut asked for details on the new $3 billion financing facility with Kennedy Lewis for the ForRent business and sought an early outlook on community count growth for 2026.

    Answer

    Chief Corporate Operations Officer Erik Heuser described the facility as a land bank-style structure for the ForRent business, providing optionality for timing asset sales to optimize value. CEO Sheryl Palmer stated that while growth is expected in 2026, the specific trajectory depends on market conditions as the company prioritizes returns over volume and maintains disciplined land spending.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut inquired about the cadence of order trends through Q1 and April, the approach to incentives, and the key drivers for the back-half gross margin guidance.

    Answer

    Sheryl Palmer, Chairman and CEO, described a steady sales increase through Q1 but noted April has been 'choppier' due to market volatility, with incentives being adjusted daily. Curt VanHyfte, CFO, explained the back-half margin guidance of around 23% is driven by higher spec penetration, lot cost inflation, and the mix of homes. He confirmed that potential tariff impacts are already factored into the low single-digit cost inflation outlook for the year. Palmer added that interest rates are the primary factor influencing incentive costs.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Michael Rehaut of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about Taylor Morrison's pricing strategy, including a January price increase, and the drivers behind the company's SG&A leverage guidance for 2025, particularly regarding marketing and broker commissions.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO Sheryl Palmer explained that the pricing strategy is community-specific, with a national price increase implemented in early January. She noted that the NAR settlement is contributing to a reduction in co-broke commissions, which fell over 10% YoY in Q4. Chief Financial Officer Curt VanHyfte added that SG&A leverage is driven by higher closing volumes, revenue growth, and a continued focus on operational efficiency.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Michael Rehaut asked about the contrast between Taylor Morrison's stable incentive levels and competitors' increases, particularly in Florida and Texas, and inquired about the new land banking partnership with Kennedy Lewis and its expected impact on margins, returns, and cash flow.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO Sheryl Palmer attributed their pricing resilience to a strong preference for new homes and a proprietary, personalized incentive strategy that minimizes the impact of costly forward commitments. She provided a detailed market-by-market overview showing strength across key regions. Chief Corporate Operations Officer Erik Heuser explained the evolution of their land-light strategy, targeting 60-65% controlled lots, and detailed that the new land banking facility offers a significant return benefit for a sub-2% margin trade-off on deployed assets.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to DR Horton Inc (DHI) leadership

    Michael Rehaut's questions to DR Horton Inc (DHI) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut of JPMorgan Chase & Co. sought to better understand the trend in incentives, asking for quantification and what might cause them to rise further. He also asked about any potential tailwinds, such as cost savings, that might be offsetting the incentive pressure.

    Answer

    SVP Jessica Hansen reiterated that the company does not quantify incentives beyond a high-single-digit range and pointed to the gross margin guidance, which implies a 50 basis point sequential decline. EVP & CFO Bill Wheat acknowledged that slight improvements in stick and brick costs provide a partial offset, but confirmed that incentives remain the primary driver of margin trends.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to DR Horton Inc (DHI) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut of JPMorgan Chase & Co. requested a quantification of incentive trends, referencing a competitor's recent commentary, and asked if incentives are expected to continue rising. He also questioned if any tailwinds, such as cost savings, were offsetting incentive pressures, given the relatively stable gross margin performance.

    Answer

    SVP Jessica Hansen did not quantify the incentive increase but highlighted the forward-looking gross margin guidance, which implies a 50 basis point decline in Q4. EVP and CFO Bill Wheat acknowledged that slight improvements in stick and brick costs provided a partial offset, but confirmed that incentives remain the primary driver of margin trends, though the pace of decline has moderated.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to DR Horton Inc (DHI) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut of JPMorgan Chase & Co. sought to understand D.R. Horton's incentive levels relative to the market and whether they were prioritizing price over volume. He also asked about the company's exposure to Canadian softwood lumber.

    Answer

    President and CEO Paul Romanowski emphasized a community-by-community competitive strategy and noted that a shift to smaller homes has supported margins. Executive Jessica Hansen highlighted their financial services arm as a competitive advantage in managing incentives. On lumber, Paul Romanowski stated that about 20% comes from Canada and any tariff-related price changes are not expected to impact results until late fiscal 2025 or 2026.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to DR Horton Inc (DHI) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for details on regional inventory levels at affordable price points and inquired about future levers for improving capital efficiency, particularly regarding the optioned lot percentage.

    Answer

    President and CEO Paul Romanowski noted some inventory buildup in Florida and Texas markets but stated that overall supply remains in good shape. CFO Bill Wheat added that while the average optioned lot percentage is 76%, there is still room for improvement in markets with lower percentages, emphasizing that the company continually evaluates structures that balance risk transfer with capital efficiency benefits.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to DR Horton Inc (DHI) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Michael Rehaut requested regional color on demand, particularly in Florida and Texas, and whether the closings guidance reflects any specific regional challenges. He also asked about the sales pace trend during the quarter, noting that some competitors saw a stronger September.

    Answer

    EVP & COO Michael Murray explained that the guidance does not reflect specific regional concerns, as the buyer pause was felt across the entire footprint. He described the sales environment throughout the quarter as 'choppy' due to mortgage rate volatility, which he believes caused buyer hesitation. EVP Jessica Hansen added that rate volatility continued into October.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to KB Home (KBH) leadership

    Michael Rehaut's questions to KB Home (KBH) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut of JPMorgan Chase & Co. probed the gross margin cadence, asking about the drivers for the expected rebound in Q4 from Q3 levels and whether it assumed any change in incentive usage. He also asked what percentage of communities saw price reductions during the quarter and which markets were most affected.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Rob Dillard stated the expected Q4 gross margin improvement is almost entirely due to higher operating leverage from increased delivery volume. President & COO Robert McGibney added that while pricing was adjusted in over half of communities, the changes were surgical. He identified Las Vegas and parts of Texas and Florida as relatively strong, while markets like Sacramento, Austin, and parts of Florida faced more headwinds from rising resale inventory.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to KB Home (KBH) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut requested color on regional performance, asking where pricing adjustments were most needed versus which markets remained strong. He also asked about the company's long-term strategy for balance sheet leverage, dividends, and share repurchases.

    Answer

    COO Rob McGibney identified Florida as the softest market requiring the most pricing action, while Texas was mixed, and the West and Southwest regions held up best. CEO Jeffrey Mezger stated the capital allocation strategy is unchanged: prioritize business growth, use equity growth to improve leverage ratios, and opportunistically repurchase shares with excess cash. He noted the company does not anticipate needing more debt.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to KB Home (KBH) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Michael Rehaut sought to confirm if the Q1 gross margin decline was primarily due to operating leverage and also asked about the trend in incentives during Q4, questioning if the company prioritized margin over volume compared to the broader market.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Jeff Kaminski confirmed the sequential Q1 margin dip is almost entirely from lower leverage on fixed costs. President and COO Rob McGibney added that while incentives increased as rates rose in Q4, the company chose not to chase sales with deep price cuts during a seasonally slow period, a different approach than some competitors who were more aggressive with discounts.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to KB Home (KBH) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    An associate on behalf of Michael Rehaut asked about any potential changes KBH is making to its broker relationships following the NAR settlement. A second question concerned the opportunity to reduce build cycle times below historical averages.

    Answer

    President & COO Rob McGibney explained that the NAR situation is evolving. KBH is seeing some buyers opt out of using realtors and now requires a buyer's compensation agreement to determine commission, which is capped at 2%. He noted realtor participation in Q3 orders was down 5 percentage points sequentially. On build times, McGibney confirmed there is an absolute opportunity to improve upon the current 150 days, with a goal of reaching the historical low-end of four months (120 days), noting some divisions are already at 110 days.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Fortune Brands Innovations Inc (FBIN) leadership

    Michael Rehaut's questions to Fortune Brands Innovations Inc (FBIN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut from JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned the new guidance framework, pointing out that the planned mid-single-digit price increase appears to generate more revenue than the stated $200 million tariff impact for the year. He also noted that underlying volume trends seem softer than previously guided, even at the high end of the new range, and requested a more specific framework for Q2 sales and margins.

    Answer

    President of Security and Connected Products, David Barry, clarified that the price increase is at the lower end of the mid-single-digit range and is supplemented by cost-out and supply chain actions. He stated that if volumes trend toward the downside scenario, the company would target decremental margins in the mid-20s by controlling hiring. For Q2, Barry guided to sales down low-to-mid-single digits and highlighted an unusually high tax rate approaching 30% due to a one-time cash repatriation from China.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Fortune Brands Innovations Inc (FBIN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Michael Rehaut questioned the drivers of core business outperformance beyond digital, noting the implied 50 bps was below historical levels, and asked for clarification on the price vs. volume mix in the sales guide considering potential tariffs.

    Answer

    CEO Nicholas Fink acknowledged the conservatism, explaining that resources were focused on digital in 2024, but he expects the core to outperform as new branding and innovation roll out. CFO David Barry added that headwinds from China in Q1 and the ongoing recovery in the core Security business temper the initial outlook. Barry clarified that only the China tariff impact (less than 1% price) is in the sales guide; potential Mexico/Canada tariffs are covered in the EPS range but not yet modeled into sales.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to LGI Homes Inc (LGIH) leadership

    Michael Rehaut's questions to LGI Homes Inc (LGIH) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut asked for details on the gross margin guidance reduction, including the expected cadence for the rest of the year and the specific drivers, such as tariffs versus other factors. He also inquired about the level of sales incentives compared to the previous quarter and the market dynamics necessitating them.

    Answer

    CEO Eric Lipar explained the gross margin adjustment is driven by three factors: anticipated tariff-related cost increases from suppliers, the prudent decision to lower guidance after a weaker Q1, and leaning into customer incentives, which average 5-6% of the average sales price (ASP). Lipar noted this incentive level is similar to the prior quarter and is used for closing costs, mortgage rate buydowns, and discounts on aged inventory to remain competitive amid market volatility.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Whirlpool Corp (WHR) leadership

    Michael Rehaut's questions to Whirlpool Corp (WHR) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for clarification on the $70/unit cost disadvantage, questioning why the tariff impact on competitors wouldn't be higher, and requested a breakdown of the 250 basis point tariff offset between pricing and cost actions.

    Answer

    Marc Bitzer (executive) explained the $70 disadvantage is a pre-existing loophole related to steel and component costs that they expect to be closed, noting Whirlpool's 80% domestic production contrasts with competitors' ~25%. He stated that over half of the offset would come from pricing. James Peters (executive) added that the full pricing benefit would materialize in the second half due to promotional timing and competitor inventory work-down.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Whirlpool Corp (WHR) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Michael Rehaut asked for details on the financial impact of the extensive new product launches throughout 2025, specifically on price/mix and potential costs. He also requested quantification of the Q4 retailer destocking impact and the company's exposure to potential tariffs.

    Answer

    CEO Marc Bitzer stated that the launches are spread throughout the year and that associated transition costs are factored into the guidance. He noted the premium brand launches should lift margins. Regarding Q4, he described the destocking impact as 'sizable' and a one-time event. He clarified that potential tariffs are not included in guidance but emphasized that over 80% of products sold in the U.S. are produced domestically, which differs significantly from competitors.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Lennar Corp (LEN) leadership

    Michael Rehaut's questions to Lennar Corp (LEN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Michael Rehaut questioned the gross margin impact from the Millrose land strategy and the potential for option walkaways, and also asked for updated thoughts on leverage, free cash flow, and share repurchases for 2025.

    Answer

    Executive Stuart Miller estimated the historical margin impact of the asset-light model at around 100 basis points but noted it's difficult to isolate in the current environment. He stated that the company does not anticipate any option walkaways, as it's more economical to work through assets at a lower margin. Regarding capital allocation, Miller and CFO Diane Bessette described 2025 as a transition year for cash flow but reaffirmed the long-term goal for cash flow to approximate net earnings, which would fuel a 'rather robust' share buyback program in the future.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Lennar Corp (LEN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Michael Rehaut asked for clarification on what a 'normalized' gross margin would look like for Lennar in the coming years, given the Q1 guidance is expected to be a trough. He also questioned the FY25 volume growth guidance, noting that after accounting for the Rausch Coleman acquisition, organic growth appears lower than the company's long-term targets.

    Answer

    Executive Chairman Stuart Miller stated that while a specific normalized margin is hard to predict, it will be 'north of where we are now' and will recover as demand activates. Co-CEO and President Jonathan Jaffe added that supply chain efficiencies will aid margin recovery. On growth, Miller blurred the lines between organic and inorganic, positioning acquisitions as part of their ongoing community growth strategy. CFO Diane Bessette emphasized that the asset-light acquisition structure is more akin to organic growth and helps grow market share.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Lennar Corp (LEN) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Michael Rehaut sought more detail on the Millrose spin-off, asking about the cash portion of the $6-8 billion asset contribution and whether the transaction would reduce Lennar's SG&A. He also pressed for more clarity on the significant downward revision to the gross margin outlook for the year.

    Answer

    Executive Chairman Stuart Miller clarified that the $6-8 billion contribution to Millrose was always planned to include cash, but the exact amount is a moving target. He stated there would be 'very limited personnel movement,' so any SG&A savings would come from operational efficiencies, not transfers. CFO Diane Bessette added that Lennar will not hold Millrose stock; it will be distributed to shareholders. On margins, Miller reiterated that the company is strategically using margin as a 'shock absorber' to maintain volume during its transformation amid challenging market conditions.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Lennar Corp (LEN) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Michael Rehaut sought more detail on the Millrose land spin, including the cash component of the contribution and potential impacts on Lennar's cost structure. He also pressed for more clarity on the significant downward revision to the gross margin outlook.

    Answer

    Executive Chairman Stuart Miller reiterated that the $6-8 billion contribution to Millrose always included a cash component, but details remain fluid. He noted minimal personnel would move, so SG&A savings would come from efficiency. CFO Diane Bessette clarified that Lennar will not hold Millrose stock, as it will be distributed to shareholders. Miller attributed the margin revision to using margin as a 'shock absorber' to maintain volume amid high rates and a community count lag.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Century Communities Inc (CCS) leadership

    Michael Rehaut's questions to Century Communities Inc (CCS) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Michael Rehaut of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for a breakdown of market strength by region, the outlook for Average Selling Price (ASP) in 2025 and beyond, the specific gain from a project sale in 'Other Income', and the strategy behind the share repurchase program.

    Answer

    Financial Officer John Dixon highlighted the West as a strong region, with Southern California and Phoenix as standout markets, and noted Atlanta's strength in the Southeast. He indicated the 2025 guidance implies a flat to slightly down ASP to maintain affordability. Dixon also clarified that a ~$20 million gain from a Century Living project sale was the primary driver of the $13.3 million in 'Other Income'. Executive Chairman Dale Francescon explained the share repurchase strategy is focused on preventing share count creep, with opportunistic buybacks to reduce the count.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Smith Douglas Homes Corp (SDHC) leadership

    Michael Rehaut's questions to Smith Douglas Homes Corp (SDHC) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    An analyst on behalf of Michael Rehaut asked about the company's assumptions for its incentive load in 2025 and for an update on the M&A environment, including any changes to the deal pipeline.

    Answer

    CFO Russ Devendorf responded that incentives, currently just over 3% of revenue, are budgeted to remain flat in 2025, with interest rates being the primary variable. Regarding M&A, Devendorf noted that while the pipeline is healthy, valuations can be rich, and the company's current strategy favors organic growth through greenfield start-ups, such as its recent entry into Greenville, South Carolina.

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    Michael Rehaut's questions to Installed Building Products Inc (IBP) leadership

    Michael Rehaut's questions to Installed Building Products Inc (IBP) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Michael Rehaut asked if the recent shift to higher gross margins (high 33% range) and higher SG&A (mid-18% range) is structural, and what factors might cause a reversion. He also sought to understand why gross margins have remained high despite negative mix shifts.

    Answer

    CFO Michael Miller reaffirmed the 32%-34% gross margin target range, explaining the company has been performing at the high end. He attributed the higher SG&A to lagging inflationary effects on costs like rent and administrative labor. CEO Jeffrey Edwards added that while mix shifts create pressure, the team's focus on operational efficiency and extracting value has successfully sustained strong margin performance.

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