Michael Sison

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo Securities asked for commentary on the stability of the Industrial Co's performance and its classification as an 'industrial' versus a 'chemical' company, and also requested a reminder of Electronics Co's exposure to advanced nodes and AI.

Answer

CFO Antonella Franzen asserted that with 40% of its portfolio in healthcare and water, IndustrialsCo performs like an industrial company. Jon Kemp, President of the Electronics division, stated that ~35% of their semi business is in advanced nodes and that the AI/HPC/data center segment, ~15% of the portfolio, grew over 20% in the quarter.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC asked for commentary supporting the view of IndustrialsCo as an industrial company, not a chemical company, and requested a reminder of ElectronicsCo's exposure to advanced nodes and AI.

Answer

CFO Antonella Franzen argued that the portfolio's composition, with 40% in stable healthcare and water, and its performance affirm its industrial nature. Jon Kemp, President of the Electronics division, stated that 35% of semi exposure is in advanced nodes and 15% of the portfolio is in AI/HPC, which grew over 20% in the quarter.

Michael Sison asked for Jon Kemp's perspective on the appropriate peer group for valuing the future Qnity business and his view on the current stage of the AI growth cycle.

Answer

Jon Kemp, CEO-elect of Qnity, identified semiconductor industry pure-plays as the best peer set, expressing confidence that long-term industry dynamics will support a strong valuation. On AI, he stated that we are in the 'very early days' of adoption, with hyperscalers increasing investment, which drives strong growth for Qnity's enabling technologies in data centers and advanced packaging.

Michael Sison asked what metrics beyond growth, such as margins and returns, support IndustrialsCo's case for being a multi-industrial rather than a chemical company. He also asked for the size and growth rate of advanced nodes within Electronics.

Answer

CEO Lori Koch and Executive Chairman Ed Breen highlighted the strong margin profile, lower earnings volatility, and the divestiture of the M&M business as key differentiators from chemical companies. Lori Koch added that advanced nodes represent about 40% of the semi portfolio and grow faster than the segment average, with AI-specific exposures growing 30%.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo & Company asked for a high-level outlook on how the semiconductors, electronics, water, and industrial businesses might shape up for 2025.

Answer

CEO Lori Koch reiterated previous commentary, stating there were no significant changes to the 2025 outlook. She expects electronics growth to accelerate, driven by AI and new fabs, with a recovery still to come in memory markets. In W&P, she anticipates continued recovery in medical packaging and a more normalized demand environment for water, with no major changes from the outlook provided last quarter.

Michael Sison asked about Sanjiv Lamba's confidence in a positive cycle turn for the chemical industry despite current negativity and structural issues, and what factors are needed for a recovery. He also inquired about the reasons for the 9% year-over-year and 3% sequential increase in SG&A.

Answer

Sanjiv Lamba, CEO, acknowledged the chemical industry's current challenges but noted its historical cyclicality. He expects a rebound as European capacity rationalization supports other regions and China continues reasonable growth. Matt White, CFO, clarified that year-to-date SG&A was up 1%, with M&A (1%) and inflation (2%) largely offset by restructuring actions (-2%).

Michael Sison from Wells Fargo & Company asked about the chemical industry, questioning why Linde expects a cycle rebound despite structural issues and asset rationalization, and what factors are needed for the industry to turn the corner. He also asked about the reasons for the SG&A increase and its future trend.

Answer

CEO Sanjiv Lamba acknowledged the current negative sentiment in the chemical industry but emphasized that Linde has seen these cycles before. He expects a rebound as rationalization actions in Europe lead to a fundamental shift, with tier-one customers remaining resilient. CFO Matt White clarified that year-to-date SG&A was up 1%, with M&A and inflation contributing 1% and 2% respectively, offset by a 2% reduction from restructuring actions.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo Securities inquired about the growth potential of the space launch market, asking when recent merchant agreements might convert into on-site contracts.

Answer

CEO Sanjiv Lamba highlighted space as a very attractive, double-digit growth opportunity, noting Linde supplies over four out of five U.S. launches and has invested nearly $1 billion in related infrastructure. He clarified that while these are long-term agreements with strong customer commitments, their commercial structure (lacking guaranteed fixed fees) prevents them from being classified as on-site projects in the backlog.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo inquired if the economic contraction assumed in the 2025 outlook meant volumes would worsen from Q1 levels, and asked what long-term green shoots to watch for in industrial demand.

Answer

CFO Matt White clarified the guidance includes a negative base volume assumption of 1-1.5% as a placeholder. CEO Sanjiv Lamba identified long-term growth drivers including secular trends like electronics, high-growth markets such as India and Mexico, and nascent markets like aerospace and quantum computing, all of which would be underpinned by an eventual cyclical recovery.

Michael Sison asked for an early outlook on 2025, questioning if the first half would resemble the weak second half of 2024 and if the company's growth algorithm remains intact.

Answer

CEO Sanjiv Lamba politely deferred providing a 2025 outlook, stating that the company is currently in its planning process. He promised a comprehensive view and detailed guidance for 2025 during the next earnings call in February.

Michael Sison asked if industry margins for the PEM segment could go lower in 2026, assuming demand remains in a trough, polyethylene, PVC, caustic, and chlorine remain oversupplied, and feedstock costs potentially rise.

Answer

Steve Bender (EVP and CFO) found it challenging to predict 2026 industry margins, noting that consultants forecast relatively flat prices for core vinyls from 2025 to 2026. He acknowledged rising ethane feedstock costs and the potential for margin compression if downstream derivatives cannot fully support these higher input prices.

Michael Sison asked if industry margins for the PEM segment could go lower in 2026, considering a scenario where demand remains in a trough, polyethylene, PVC, caustic, and chlorine are oversupplied, and feedstock costs potentially rise.

Answer

Steven Bender, EVP and CFO, stated it's difficult to make that call, noting that consultants forecast relatively stable pricing for 2026 compared to 2025. He acknowledged rising ethane costs and potential for further compression, but emphasized that downstream derivatives must support higher feedstock prices. Westlake will continue to monitor customer demand and operate the business accordingly.

Michael Sison from Wells Fargo inquired about the outlook for PEM industry margins in Q3 versus Q2, specifically for the chlor-alkali and polyethylene chains. He also asked for perspective on normal fourth-quarter seasonality given the operational disruptions experienced earlier in the year.

Answer

EVP & CFO Steven Bender noted that for PVC, July prices were flat, but an August nomination is in the market. For polyethylene, July prices were unsettled with nominations pending. Regarding seasonality, he explained that Q4 typically sees lower chlorine demand, which tightens caustic soda production, but the overall pricing environment will depend on feedstock costs and the success of price nominations.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo & Company asked for the directional EBITDA outlook for the second quarter for both the HIP and PEM segments. He also inquired if the significant Q1 feedstock cost headwind in PEM is expected to improve in Q2.

Answer

M. Bender, EVP and CFO, indicated that HIP should see seasonal growth in Q2 and Q3, supported by construction activity, which should also benefit the PEM segment sequentially. He confirmed that key feedstock costs like natural gas and ethane trended lower in April and May compared to their Q1 peaks, which should provide a positive tailwind for PEM.

Michael Sison asked if the 20-22% EBITDA margin guidance for HIP in 2025 should be considered a trough level. He also inquired about the fundamental outlook for the PEM segment and whether EBITDA could improve in 2025 or potentially worsen.

Answer

EVP and CFO Steve Bender reiterated that the 2025 HIP guidance is conservative and reflects a potential product mix shift but highlighted the business's strong historical performance. For PEM, Bender declined to provide direct EBITDA guidance but pointed to recent price nominations across key products as evidence of improving demand, suggesting a constructive outlook without specifying the magnitude of change.

On behalf of Michael Sison from Wells Fargo, a representative asked for the pricing outlook in the PEM segment for Q4, particularly for polyethylene and chlor-alkali, and requested a quantification of the hurricane's EBITDA impact on the HIP segment.

Answer

EVP and CFO Steve Bender stated that while October pricing had not settled, consultants suggest potential for modest price reductions in Q4 for PVC and polyethylene due to seasonality. He characterized the caustic market as stable. He estimated the combined impact of weather and slower housing starts on HIP EBITDA was in the 'mid-$40-ish million range'.

Michael Sison from Wells Fargo asked about the necessary conditions for a turnaround in the Architectural EMEA business, identifying key regions and outlining the strategy for returning this segment to growth, potentially in 2026.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Tim Knavish identified France, Netherlands, UK, and Poland as the largest markets for Architectural EMEA. He explained that soft demand is driven by low consumer confidence due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical factors. Knavish highlighted consistent price growth (9 straight years) and aggressive structural cost actions, anticipating that flat demand, especially with recovery in Eastern Europe (Poland, Hungary, Romania, Baltics, Scandinavia), will lead to strong leverage and stabilization.

Michael Sison inquired about the necessary conditions for the Architectural EMEA business to recover, identifying its most important regions and outlining its path back to growth.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Tim Knavish identified France, Netherlands, UK, and Poland as key markets. He noted soft demand driven by consumer confidence, inflation, interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, and energy issues. PPG is implementing aggressive structural cost actions and maintaining price growth, expecting stabilization rather than a full recovery. He highlighted stronger recovery in Eastern Europe (Poland, Hungary, Romania, Baltics, Scandinavia) and anticipates leverage once Western European markets stabilize.

Michael Sison from Wells Fargo Securities questioned the outlook for Automotive Refinish volumes into 2026 and asked about the sustainability of the impressive double-digit growth seen in Protective and Marine Coatings.

Answer

CEO Timothy Knavish projected that Refinish volumes would be soft in Q3 due to customer order patterns but should normalize in Q4, with a broader industry recovery not expected until 2026. CFO Vince Morales noted the buffering effect of the MoonWalk subscription model. Regarding Protective and Marine, Knavish expressed confidence in sustained strong growth through 2026, driven by PPG's advantaged technologies.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo Securities questioned the outlook for Automotive Refinish volumes and asked about the sustainability of the double-digit growth seen in the Protective and Marine Coatings business.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Timothy Knavish projected a soft Q3 for Refinish due to distributor order patterns but expects normalization in Q4, with a broader industry recovery not anticipated until 2026. CFO Vince Morales highlighted the buffering effect of the MoonWalk subscription model. Regarding Protective and Marine, Knavish expressed high confidence in continued strong growth, driven by advantaged technologies in marine aftermarket and fire protection.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo asked for the full-year volume outlook for the Performance Coatings segment and an assessment of how much of the growth is attributable to market share gains versus underlying market demand.

Answer

CEO Timothy Knavish expressed confidence in the segment, highlighting double-digit growth in Aerospace and Protective & Marine, with sequential improvement expected in Traffic Solutions. CFO Vince Morales noted that while comps get more difficult in the second half, the businesses have shown strong growth on a two-year stack basis and those trends are expected to continue.

Michael Sison inquired if there are other businesses within the Performance and Industrial segments that could be divested and why the current portfolio is optimal for growth.

Answer

CEO Tim Knavish stated that no additional divestitures are planned and that he likes the current portfolio. He described Performance Coatings as a high-performing, aftermarket-focused segment. He defended the Industrial segment's current margins, noting they are at a cyclical trough with significant volume leverage and self-help actions underway. He highlighted that the recent portfolio moves have already lifted the company's EBITDA margin by 220 basis points into the top tier.

Michael Sison asked for insights into PPG's growth algorithm for 2025 following the divestitures of its architectural and silicas businesses, and requested a general framework for EPS growth next year.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Timothy Knavish stated that while it's early for specific 2025 guidance, PPG has positive momentum in Performance Coatings, sees stabilizing trends in Europe, and anticipates benefits from newly announced self-help initiatives. He noted that IHS projects marginally positive auto builds for next year. SVP and CFO Vince Morales added that the company's strong balance sheet provides flexibility for future shareholder value creation.

Michael Sison asked about Axalta's strategy if 2026 refinish markets don't normalize, the potential for market share gains, and the impact of BASF selling its business to private equity.

Answer

Chris Villavarayan, CEO and President, views the current refinish market as temporary and stabilizing. He believes Axalta can continue to grow through new body shop wins (2,200 year-to-date), adjacencies (putties, fillers, aerosols), and expanding into the economy segment where Axalta has only 9-11% market share. Regarding BASF's sale, he sees it as potentially driving discipline in the market and highlighting Axalta's undervaluation, reinforcing the strategy of aggressive share repurchases.

Michael Sison from Wells Fargo inquired about the current average auto repair cost and whether it needs to reach a specific level for demand to rebound. He also asked about the impact of the aging car park on Refinish growth.

Answer

President and CEO Chris Villavarayan estimated the average repair cost is around $4,700-$5,000 but emphasized Axalta's value proposition is not the coating cost (~4% of total) but the savings on labor (~40% of total). He explained that Axalta's products improve body shop efficiency, reducing labor time and material usage, which is a key driver for winning the 1,600 new body shops year-to-date even in a challenging environment.

Michael Sison asked about the potential impact of a U.S. recession on Refinish volumes and for historical context on the last time industry volumes were positive.

Answer

CEO Chrishan Anthon Villavarayan stated that positive industry volume growth was likely a pre-pandemic phenomenon, as the market has seen declines for many quarters. However, he stressed that Axalta's Refinish business has consistently grown sales and profits for at least 14 quarters through strong execution, M&A, and body shop wins, demonstrating its resilience independent of the broader market volume trends.

Michael Sison from Wells Fargo & Company asked about the state of the Refinish market, its potential for growth over the next few years, and the key risks for the segment in 2025 amid a challenging macro environment.

Answer

CEO Chris Villavarayan identified both transitory factors (high insurance rates, consumer spending choices) and structural factors (distributor destocking) affecting the Refinish market. He noted that while body shop backlogs are normalizing, the company is forecasting a flat-to-down market to ensure they focus on outperformance. He also mentioned that severe weather could be an un-forecasted tailwind in subsequent quarters.

Michael Sison asked for a breakdown of the expected $0.01 global integrated margin decline in Packaging and Specialty Plastics (P&SP) for the fourth quarter, specifically by pricing or cost factors across the U.S., Europe, and export markets. He also questioned if EBITDA would improve in the first half of 2026 if the global demand backdrop remains similar, considering planned cost savings.

Answer

Karen S. Carter, Chief Operating Officer, explained that the $0.01 decline in integrated margins is primarily due to anticipated higher feedstock costs (natural gas and ethane) in Q4, despite expectations for higher prices. Jim Fitterling, Chair and Chief Executive Officer, addressed the 2026 outlook, stating that ongoing uncertainty from trade deals and subdued consumer/business spending limits visibility. He highlighted strong demand in tech, AI, data centers, and government infrastructure but emphasized the need for certainty in established global supply chains for a broader market rebound.

Michael Sison asked for a breakdown of the expected $0.01 decline in global integrated margins for packaging and specialty plastics (PSP) in Q4, differentiating between pricing and cost impacts across regions. He also questioned if EBITDA would improve in the first half of 2026 if the global demand backdrop remained similar, considering planned cost savings.

Answer

COO Karen S. Carter explained that the expected $0.01 decline in integrated margins for PSP was primarily due to higher feedstock costs (natural gas and ethane) anticipated in Q4, despite expectations for higher prices in October. Chair and CEO Jim Fitterling addressed the broader demand outlook, attributing the 'no change' in market indicators to ongoing uncertainty and the need for certainty in trade deals to spur investment and demand beyond tech and infrastructure.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo Securities asked why the Q3 adjusted EBIT guidance wasn't stronger given rising polyethylene prices and operating rates. He also requested more detail on the opportunity to leverage Dow's power portfolio for AI data centers via its new infrastructure partnership.

Answer

COO Karen Carter explained that Q3 polyethylene margins are improving from a very low Q2 base, which was negatively impacted by an unexpected April price drop. She confirmed the new PolySeven train will provide uplift. CEO Jim Fitterling added that the Diamond Infrastructure Solutions partnership creates opportunities to offer land, power, and utilities to tech companies, leveraging Dow's existing scale and capabilities, though it is still in the early stages.

Michael Sison inquired about the potential for EBITDA to improve in the second half of the year compared to the first, seeking to understand the key drivers such as cost savings and the demand environment.

Answer

Chair and CEO James Fitterling identified three drivers for potential second-half improvement: accretive earnings from three new growth projects coming online, normalizing energy costs after a Q1 spike, and the ramp-up of cost savings programs. He noted the primary uncertainty remains the impact of tariffs on global supply chains and demand, but highlighted Dow's geographic flexibility as a key advantage.

Michael Sison from Wells Fargo & Company inquired about the directional outlook for 2025 EBITDA, questioning whether it would be up, down, or flat given a potentially similar demand environment to 2024.

Answer

CEO James Fitterling stated that the newly announced $1 billion cost reduction program is designed to support improved EBITDA in 2025. He noted that while pricing power remains a key variable, the company expects to benefit from volume growth from new projects and will take necessary actions to tighten the European market. Fitterling also emphasized a focus on careful cash management to protect the dividend.

Michael Sison inquired about RPM International's full-year outlook, specifically how much of the lower-end guidance was influenced by growth investments versus weaker market demand, and later asked about the Consumer Group's organic growth, industry demand, and market share performance.

Answer

Frank Sullivan, Chairman and CEO, explained that growth investments are yielding desired organic growth, detailing $10 million in higher quarterly spend for sales hires, M&A, and advertising, alongside an $8 million increase in healthcare costs. He noted the Consumer Group is outperforming the broader industry, gaining share in new categories and expanding into new channels with acquisitions like The Pink Stuff.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo Securities inquired about RPM's underlying organic growth forecast for fiscal 2026 and the potential for further productivity gains from the new three-segment operating structure.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Frank Sullivan stated that RPM anticipates generating 2 to 3 points of organic growth for the year, driven by solid performance in the Construction Products Group (CPG) and Performance Coatings Group (PCG). He added that the new three-segment structure will yield about $15 million in upfront expense reductions and create operational and revenue synergies, such as better collaboration between the Industrial Coatings Group and Carboline.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo asked about the resilience of RPM's portfolio in a potential U.S. recession and sought clarification on whether tariff-related cost increases would be passed on as a surcharge or a permanent price increase.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Frank Sullivan expressed confidence in the company's ability to outperform, citing the repair and maintenance focus of its businesses. Regarding tariffs, he detailed a multi-faceted mitigation strategy including sourcing changes, vendor partnerships, and targeted price increases, stating the total impact is not material to RPM and will be mostly offset.

Michael Sison asked how RPM can achieve 3% volume growth in Q4 if the economic environment remains sluggish and what kind of long-term growth the company could see if the economy improves.

Answer

CEO Frank Sullivan expressed confidence in Q4 growth, citing easier comps, new product introductions, and market outperformance in certain segments. For the longer term, he noted that while geopolitical uncertainty exists, a return to growth in Europe, stability in Latin America, and a platform approach to developing markets create significant upside potential.

Michael Sison asked about the level of volume growth needed to achieve the company's 16% EBIT margin target by fiscal 2026. He also inquired about the potential volume growth the portfolio could generate over the next couple of years if interest rate cuts materialize.

Answer

Frank Sullivan, Chair and CEO, stated that the company is so well-poised from its MAP initiatives that if it could generate 2-3% consolidated volume growth in the second half of the current fiscal year, it would reach a run rate of 42% gross profit and 16% EBIT by the fourth quarter. He emphasized that the original $8.5 billion revenue target is not needed to hit those margin goals, and if they had come close to that revenue number, they would have meaningfully exceeded the margin targets.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo Securities sought to confirm the components of the Q3 earnings bridge, particularly the magnitude of the demand-related headwind, and asked if there were structural issues hindering the long-term earnings power of businesses like nylon.

Answer

CEO & President Scott A. Richardson confirmed that cost reductions and the absence of turnarounds are benefiting Q3, with the sequential decline primarily due to a change in demand. He expressed confidence in the company's long-term earnings power, highlighting significant cost structure improvements in both Acetyls and Engineered Materials, which he believes will position the company to capitalize on any demand recovery.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo Securities sought to clarify the components of the Q3 earnings outlook, particularly the impact of weaker demand, and questioned whether any structural issues are persistently depressing earnings power.

Answer

CEO & President Scott A. Richardson confirmed the math, noting that underlying performance is improving due to cost savings and fewer turnarounds, but this is offset by a demand change of about $0.25. He expressed confidence in the company's increasing earnings power, citing a historically low Western Hemisphere cost structure in Acetyls and significant SG&A plus R&D efficiency gains in Engineered Materials, which position the company to capitalize on any demand recovery.

Michael Sison from Wells Fargo Securities sought to confirm the components of the Q3 outlook, questioning if a negative $0.50 impact from demand and destocking could reverse in Q4. He also asked if there were any structural issues in the business given the disappointing earnings levels.

Answer

CEO Scott A. Richardson confirmed the math, noting that underlying performance is improving due to cost savings and fewer turnarounds, but this is offset by a demand change of about $0.25. He strongly refuted the idea of structural issues, highlighting significant cost structure improvements in both Acetyls and Engineered Materials that position the company for increased earnings power when demand returns.

Michael Sison asked about the company's expected earnings power run rate by the end of the year and its view on the longer-term earnings potential for Celanese.

Answer

CEO Scott Richardson was cautious about the second half, but noted that if demand remains stable, a run rate of around $2 per share exiting the year is possible, driven by self-help actions and other tailwinds. For the long term, he expressed strong belief in the earnings power of both the Acetyl Chain and Engineered Materials franchises, highlighting significant recovery potential, but refrained from giving a specific target, framing the $2 per quarter level as the first step.

Michael Sison asked for an assessment of the M&M business's long-term potential for Celanese and inquired about the key drivers for potential EBITDA improvement in the second half of 2025.

Answer

CEO Scott Richardson affirmed the value of the M&M acquisition, highlighting growth from the high-temp nylon portfolio in EV applications and elastomeric products in athletic apparel. For H2 2025 improvement, he outlined three key drivers: executing on the $50-$100 million complexity reduction in Engineered Materials, fully leveraging the acetyls optionality model, and reversing the recent margin compression across both the EM and Acetyls businesses.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo questioned the potential for an M&M business write-down given the Q4 outlook and asked about the earnings trajectory for 2025 if the macro environment remains weak.

Answer

CFO Chuck Kyrish stated that the Q3 goodwill impairment test did not result in a write-down for the Engineered Materials unit, though a minor $34 million trade name impairment was recorded. CEO Lori Ryerkerk and COO Scott Richardson noted that while it is too early to forecast 2025, the company is focused on controllable actions like cost cuts and synergies to drive performance.

Michael Sison pointed out the implied 10% sequential decline in ex-Pharma EBITDA from H1 to H2 and asked if this was due to normal seasonality or incremental consumer slowing.

Answer

CFO Michael Deveau confirmed that a sequential step-down is expected. He attributed it partly to normal business seasonality, as Q4 is historically the lowest margin quarter of the year. He also acknowledged that the decline reflects the previously discussed softening in volume performance expected in the second half.

Michael Sison from Wells Fargo asked for a breakdown of the drivers behind the Food Ingredients margin improvement, specifically the contributions from net pricing versus productivity, and questioned if there is potential upside to the mid-teens margin goal.

Answer

CEO Erik Fyrwald attributed the margin gains primarily to productivity initiatives and a strategic focus on selling higher-margin products and applications. He reaffirmed the company's commitment to delivering further margin improvements this year and achieving a target of above 15% through 2026.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo pointed out that the high end of the Q4 guidance implies a year-over-year EBITDA decline despite positive growth and asked for color on this. He also inquired about customer sentiment for 2025 and any signs of improvement.

Answer

CFO Glenn Richter clarified the year-over-year comparison, noting the Q4 guide is roughly flat on a like-for-like basis. He explained the perceived decline is almost entirely due to a nearly $40 million year-over-year increase in incentive compensation in the quarter, as performance is materially above budget this year. CEO Jon Erik Fyrwald added that while they aren't seeing strong 'green shoots' from customers for 2025, IFF is focused on driving growth through innovation, which customers desire in slow markets.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo Securities questioned the drivers behind the consistent pricing power in Performance Materials despite volume declines. He also sought CEO David Li's assessment of the Advanced Polymer Technologies (APT) segment and inquired about capital allocation priorities after achieving leverage targets.

Answer

CEO David Li attributed the pricing power in Performance Materials to the high value of its engineered carbon solutions. Regarding APT, Li noted that new leadership is in place and the segment is part of the ongoing portfolio review, with more details to come. CFO Mary Hall outlined future capital allocation priorities post-deleveraging as: 1) organic investments, 2) share repurchases, and 3) M&A, which is not a near-term focus.

Michael Sison questioned the 2025 EBITDA target of 'approaching $400 million,' asking how much is based on self-help initiatives versus reliance on macro factors. He also asked for the metrics that define a 'good business' to be kept in the portfolio.

Answer

Interim CEO Luis Fernandez-Moreno emphasized that the EBITDA target is primarily driven by 'self-help' actions, including benefits from lower CTO costs, savings from the Performance Chemicals repositioning, and a stronger focus on execution. Regarding portfolio criteria, he stated that it was too early in his tenure to share specific metrics or strategic thoughts on what defines a core business for Ingevity.

Michael Sison from Wells Fargo Securities asked for a directional outlook on Q3 earnings given competing factors and questioned whether the company's long-term, mid-cycle EBITDA potential has changed or is simply delayed.

Answer

CEO Peter Vanacker provided a segment-by-segment outlook, suggesting improvement in O&P Americas and Europe, with flat results expected for the I&D, APS, and Technology segments. He highlighted an $85 million tailwind in O&P Americas from reduced downtime. He did not directly comment on changes to the long-term mid-cycle EBITDA potential.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo asked for help in framing the company's current trough EBITDA potential, considering portfolio changes like the refining exit, and whether the mid-cycle outlook remains significantly better.

Answer

CEO Peter Vanacker suggested that underlying Q1 EBITDA was about $100 million higher than Q4 after adjusting for roughly $200 million in non-recurring impacts from turnarounds and outages. While visibility is weak, he noted that demand for durable goods will eventually see a replenishment after a prolonged downturn. He pointed to the resilience of packaging and reaffirmed that this is the longest downturn of his career, making a precise trough difficult to predict.

Michael Sison from Wells Fargo asked what needs to improve in 2025 for the O&P-Americas segment to grow EBITDA, given that integrated polyethylene margins have already performed well this year.

Answer

CEO Peter Vanacker identified the need for continued demand growth, particularly from a recovery in durable goods and construction, which would benefit both polyethylene and polypropylene. He also emphasized that the exit of the low-margin Refining business, which accounted for about 70% of the year-over-year EBITDA decline, will remove a significant headwind from consolidated results in 2025.

Michael Sison from Wells Fargo Securities inquired about the potential for MDI capacity rationalization in China and the company's long-term path to achieving higher, mid-cycle EBITDA levels.

Answer

Chairman, President & CEO Peter Huntsman stated that while some chemical closures in China are likely, he does not expect them in MDI due to the modern and competitive nature of those assets. He expressed confidence in an eventual recovery to normalized EBITDA, driven by market improvements and a more competitive internal cost structure.

Michael Sison referenced consultant views of a sequential MDI margin increase in Q2 and asked for management's perspective. He also asked what needs to happen for a better second half and what actions the company would take if the U.S. economy enters a recession.

Answer

CEO Peter Huntsman stated that the key variable for Q2 margins is volume. He sees an opportunity for margin expansion in the U.S. through falling raw material costs, while Asian prices have recently stabilized after a drop. For a better second half, Huntsman emphasized that market certainty is needed to drive a recovery in volumes, which he believes will happen due to the disconnect between current orders and end-user demand. He believes earnings should improve materially from current levels.

Michael Sison inquired about the potential for sequential EBITDA improvement in Q2 and asked about the state of MDI margins in China, given high prices.

Answer

CEO Peter Huntsman expressed hope for a better Q2 than Q1, driven by construction seasonality and potential traction on MDI price increases. While not providing specifics on China, he implied margins are not at a high and stated that the region's primary need is a recovery in demand, potentially through economic stimulus.

Michael Sison asked what level of volume or sales is necessary for the Polyurethanes business to begin showing significant EBITDA leverage. He also followed up on the 2025 outlook, asking if management agrees with consultants who foresee margin expansion.

Answer

Chairman, CEO and President Peter Huntsman explained that meaningful leverage typically begins when global capacity utilization reaches the high 80s. He expressed optimism for margin expansion in early 2025, contingent on continued demand improvement, particularly in North American housing. He noted that recovery in North America and Asia might precede Europe due to a global dislocation of manufacturing.

Michael Sison from Wells Fargo Securities inquired about Avient's volume outlook for the second half of 2025, particularly in light of broader market destocking, and asked about the potential EBITDA leverage when demand improves.

Answer

President, CEO & Chairman Ashish Khandpur provided a detailed market breakdown, expecting H2 to be similar to H1. He noted that weakness in consumer markets is offset by high-single-digit to double-digit growth in healthcare, defense, and telecom. He anticipates better volume in H2, especially for the SEM segment. Khandpur also explained that future EBITDA leverage will come from ongoing productivity initiatives (targeting 1.2% of sales annually) and a favorable mix shift towards more profitable growth vectors.

Michael Sison asked how Avient's portfolio would perform in a potential recession and what investors might be missing about the company's stability, given its stock performance relative to commodity peers.

Answer

SVP and CFO Jamie Beggs highlighted the portfolio's resilience, with strong growth expected in healthcare, defense, packaging, and composites, which should help it outperform. President and CEO Dr. Ashish Khandpur added that the company is focused on execution—delivering consistent growth, margin expansion, and cash generation—and believes this will eventually be recognized by investors.

Michael Sison asked if a potential increase in U.S. manufacturing would be a net positive for Avient given its large overseas sales exposure, and also inquired about the business outlook for Europe.

Answer

President and CEO Dr. Ashish Khandpur responded that more U.S. manufacturing would be a net positive by reducing FX exposure. CFO Jamie Beggs quantified the 2025 FX headwind at approximately $0.12 per share. Regarding Europe, Dr. Khandpur noted three consecutive quarters of organic growth and expects the region to perform better in 2025, supported by higher GDP projections.

Michael Sison asked for the reasons behind the observed restocking trend, which seems to contrast with decelerating outlooks from other chemical companies. He also inquired about the specific cultural changes driving growth and what to expect from the upcoming Investor Day.

Answer

President and CEO Dr. Ashish Khandpur identified restocking in building & construction, healthcare, and packaging, especially in Latin America where customers build inventory to prevent supply disruptions. SVP and CFO Jamie Beggs noted that comparisons were also aided by significant destocking in 2023. Regarding culture, Dr. Khandpur highlighted a sharpened commercial focus, customized regional tactics, and a strategic shift to serve secular macro trends. He previewed that the Investor Day will detail how these elements connect to form the new strategy.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo Securities asked for an update on the company's plan to invest in its core industrial gas business and the current bidding activity for smaller, low-risk projects.

Answer

CEO Eduardo Menezes confirmed continued activity in smaller, unannounced projects and highlighted significant investment in the electronics sector in Asia. He also noted ongoing projects to expand hydrogen and air separation capacity in the West. Menezes expressed confidence in Air Products' competitive advantage, particularly its cryogenic equipment manufacturing capabilities, which he intends to leverage fully.

Michael Sison from Wells Fargo asked for an estimate of the return on the $5 billion of underperforming assets, referencing a historical rule of thumb for returns. He also inquired about the expected return on capital for future projects.

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CEO Eduardo Menezes dismissed the simplified return math, explaining that depreciation life varies by project. While he would not disclose specific hurdle rates for competitive reasons, he stated that to achieve the company's overall Return on Capital targets, individual projects need to deliver IRRs higher than 10%.

Michael Sison asked if clean hydrogen projects will eventually be announced with offtake agreements already in place, similar to the traditional industrial gas model. He also inquired about the potential long-term EPS growth rate for 2026-2028 as these major projects come online.

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Chairman, President and CEO Seifi Ghasemi confirmed that going forward, the company will not make a final investment decision on any new clean hydrogen project without securing an anchor customer first, mirroring its core business model. He projected EPS growth of 9-10% for fiscal '25 and '26, with the potential for growth to be 'significantly higher than 10%' in '27 and '28 as the large-scale projects begin contributing to earnings.

Mike Sison of Wells Fargo asked about the potential for Winchester's EBITDA margin recovery and what actions the chlor alkali industry might need to take to improve profitability if the housing market remains weak.

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President and CEO Ken Lane expressed confidence that Winchester's margins will recover because the current challenges are cyclical, not structural, though he noted destocking will likely continue through 2025. For the chemicals market, he pointed to encouraging signs of potential industry rationalization, particularly in China, where high-cost producers are losing cash. He asserted that Olin's strong balance sheet will enable it to navigate the trough effectively.

Michael Sison from Wells Fargo & Company asked how Olin is taking advantage of caustic soda being the stronger side of the ECU, given the company's focus on managing to the weaker chlorine side.

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President and CEO Kenneth Lane explained that Olin is indeed taking advantage in a disciplined way, primarily through its EDC position, which acts as a flywheel. As the lowest-cost EDC producer, Olin can participate in that market as higher-cost Asian players back off. This allows Olin to maintain a strong value approach for caustic in its preferred markets (the Americas) without pushing excess chlorine derivatives into the market just to produce more caustic.

Michael Sison asked how Olin could improve EBITDA year-over-year if the 2025 demand environment remains weak, and what would drive sequential improvement from the Q1 low point.

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CEO Kenneth Lane responded that Olin will focus on controllables like costs and cash flow. He anticipates sequential improvement driven by a second-half recovery in the Winchester business, seasonal strength in the bleach business during warmer months, and continued pricing momentum in the Epoxy segment, despite it remaining in a 'deep hole.'

Michael Sison from Wells Fargo asked how Olin can drive EBITDA improvement in the first half of 2025 if the macro environment remains in a prolonged trough. He also probed for hints of any major strategic pivots to be announced at the upcoming Investor Day.

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President and CEO Kenneth Lane emphasized that in a continued trough, the focus remains on self-help measures like cost discipline and capital spending reductions to maximize cash flow, combined with their value-focused commercial strategy. Regarding the Investor Day, Lane was optimistic about the company's future but deferred sharing specifics on strategy, encouraging attendance to hear about the portfolio review and growth opportunities.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo Securities sought to better understand market share gains by asking for an estimate of the industry's volume decline in Q2 and what mortgage rate might be needed for industry volumes to recover.

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SVP of IR Jim Jaye highlighted outperformance by pointing out that Sherwin-Williams' new residential sales were up slightly while completions were down double-digits. Chair, President & CEO Heidi Petz suggested a mortgage rate "south of six" percent would be a positive catalyst, but stressed that consumer confidence and affordability are equally critical factors for a recovery.

Michael Sison from Wells Fargo Securities asked for a better visualization of market share gains by estimating how much industry volumes were down in Q2 and what mortgage rate would be needed for the market to recover.

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SVP of Investor Relations James Jaye pointed to Sherwin-Williams' positive growth in new residential and commercial, while market completions were down double-digits, as clear evidence of share gains. CEO Heidi Petz suggested a mortgage rate "south of six" percent would be a positive trigger, but stressed that consumer confidence and affordability are equally critical factors.

Michael Sison asked for a breakdown of the mid-single-digit price/mix growth in the Paint Stores Group, questioning the contribution from price versus mix.

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Executive Allen Mistysyn clarified that the growth was 'predominantly price,' attributing the success to the effective rollout of the January 2025 price increase. He explained that a positive mix shift also contributed, as the higher-margin residential repaint segment grew faster than the commercial and property maintenance segments.

Michael Sison questioned what factors are impeding better EPS growth in 2025, considering that demand is not expected to worsen significantly and SG&A growth is moderating.

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SVP & CFO Allen Mistysyn pointed to several headwinds: higher interest expense from refinancing, the normalization of non-operating costs after gains in 2024, and incremental operating costs for the new headquarters. CEO Heidi Petz also highlighted macro headwinds from soft single-family starts and slowing multifamily completions.

Michael Sison asked if the Paint Stores Group's segment profit would grow in Q4 and what level of store growth would be needed in 2025 to drive positive segment profit growth, along with the outlook for SG&A.

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Executive Allen Mistysyn expects year-over-year margin improvement for all segments in Q4 but not necessarily margin expansion in architectural due to seasonality. For 2025, he anticipates moderating SG&A growth but will reinvest opportunistically. Executive Heidi Petz added that they expect the investments to deliver 'outsized volume growth' and a strong return for shareholders.

Michael Sison from Wells Fargo questioned the feasibility of the company's long-term EBITDA target of approximately $600 million, given the current year's guidance is around $400 million.

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CEO Guillermo Novo defended the long-term target by separating near-term market headwinds impacting the base business from long-term growth drivers. He expressed confidence that the 'globalized' and 'innovate' strategic pillars, supported by new investments in high-growth regions and technologies, will drive future growth and that the innovation pipeline provides significant upside potential, which will be detailed at the upcoming Innovation Day.

Michael Sison inquired about the required EBITDA ramp-up to meet full-year guidance after a seasonally weak Q1 and asked about the expected progression of organic sales volumes for the remainder of the fiscal year.

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CEO Guillermo Novo explained that Q1 is historically Ashland's weakest quarter and that the key volume period runs from March to September, with current order patterns appearing normal. He stated that full-year volumes are expected to be flattish to up. Dago Caceres, GM of Specialty Additives, added that North America should see sequential improvement, Europe is expected to be flat, and China remains challenging, while Latin America and MEA/India are performing well.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo Securities inquired about the fiscal 2025 outlook being more negative than expected, potential sources of upside, and the longer-term EBITDA target, given performance has been below $500 million.

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CEO Guillermo Novo explained that the conservative outlook is driven by a prudent view on China's economy, which is expected to face a prolonged period of hyper-competition and oversupply. He noted that upside would materialize if China performs better than this cautious forecast. Novo stated that significant cost savings from restructuring are timed for fiscal 2026, which is when he expects EBITDA to return to the target range above $500 million. CFO Kevin Willis affirmed that the company has clear visibility into its $90 million optimization savings plan, with timing being the main variable.

Michael Sison asked how Eastman's portfolio would perform in a potential U.S. recession, given the significant destocking that impacted 2023 volumes. He also inquired about the original H2 volume growth assumptions for the AFP and AM segments before the tariff issues emerged.

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Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO, suggested a potential recession's impact would be less severe than in 2022-23 because the manufacturing sector is already at low demand levels with minimal excess inventory. He highlighted mitigating factors like price/cost tailwinds and the EBITDA contribution from methanolysis. He confirmed the original H2 forecast assumed a return to low-to-mid single-digit volume growth for the AM and AFP segments.

Michael Sison from Wells Fargo questioned the drivers behind the strong sequential Q4 performance in the Additives & Functional Products (AFP) segment and asked about the long-term sustainability of pricing and margins in the Fibers business.

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Board Chair and CEO Mark Costa attributed AFP's strong quarter to better-than-expected volume mix and favorable raw material cost flow-through. For Fibers, he explained that the market is normalizing from 'very tight' to 'low 90s' utilization due to inventory adjustments, a more modest situation than in 2015. He emphasized stable end-market demand and the company's focus on cost reduction and innovation to support the business long-term.

Michael Sison of Wells Fargo asked if the recent mid-single-digit volume/mix growth could serve as a baseline for 2025, even without market improvement, and what the potential upside could be. He also inquired about the 2025 order book for methanolysis products and the potential impact of the U.S. election.

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CEO Mark Costa suggested 2025 growth would be uneven, with stable markets like personal care growing steadily, while interest-rate sensitive markets like housing and auto are more likely to see a back-half loaded recovery. He noted current Q4 caution among brands due to macro uncertainty. Costa declined to speculate on the election's impact on methanolysis demand, stating that while uncertainty exists, he does not see policy changes having a significant near-term impact on their stable markets.

An analyst on behalf of Michael Sison requested an update on the status, costs, and plans for the Kings Mountain lithium project.

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CEO Kent Masters confirmed that Albemarle continues to invest in and advance the Kings Mountain project. He stated that the multi-stage, long-term permitting process is currently 'on track' and that the company continues to pursue it.