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CFO Christophe Le Caillec explained that the largest variable component of marketing spend is welcome incentives. He emphasized a disciplined approach, balancing the desire to invest more with the need for efficiency, ensuring every dollar meets profitability criteria. He noted increasing sophistication in measuring and tracking returns on marketing investments, which guides spending decisions rather than a fixed budget.

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CFO Christophe Le Caillec explained that heightened competition has actually expanded the total market demand for premium products. This creates more opportunities for American Express to deploy marketing dollars at attractive returns, as customers considering any premium card almost inevitably consider the Platinum card. He noted that while the quantity of marketing spend is much higher than a decade ago, it is a direct result of this larger, more active market.

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CEO Stephen Squeri reiterated that long-term technology investments are non-negotiable. However, he confirmed there is 'tremendous' flexibility in the marketing budget, where acquisition thresholds can be raised, and also within the operating expense line. He stressed that the company will not cut costs to hit a near-term EPS target if it means sacrificing good long-term growth opportunities, a lesson applied during COVID.

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CEO Stephen Squeri stated that AXP has not seen any significant inroads from consumer fintechs. He explained that AXP's target customer values the unique balance of rewards, experience, and service, which is a proposition fintechs have not replicated. He pointed to record levels of consumer card acquisition as evidence that their model remains highly effective. He did acknowledge the tech-integrated competition on the SME side, which the company is addressing.

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CEO Stephen Squeri confirmed that the company is 'doubling down' on the restaurant category and expects to continue gaining share, making it a key growth driver. He downplayed the minor quarterly fluctuations in airline and restaurant growth rates, stating the 1-point change in each was not significant. He emphasized the strategic importance of dining, reinforced by the Gold Card refresh and recent acquisitions.

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Brian Wenzel (EVP and CFO) attributed the Q3 reserve rate reduction primarily to strong credit performance, including lower delinquency entry rates and stabilization in early-stage delinquency, with a minor contribution from macro improvement in the Moody's baseline. He expects Q4 reserve dollars to reflect asset growth but not as much seasonal balance. He noted that new account applications are up 10% year-over-year, average active accounts inflected sequentially in Q3, and that Q4 holiday re-engagement, Walmart, Amazon Pay Later, and PayPal modifications should drive increases, with some unwind being acquisition-related.

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President and CEO Brian Doubles stated the new Walmart program is different due to its advanced technology and deep integration within the One Pay app, creating a seamless digital experience. He highlighted a stronger value proposition and better partner alignment. EVP and CFO Brian Wenzel added that the program is structured to have significantly lower loss content than the prior portfolio. Regarding loan growth, management indicated that moving from -2% to a flat outlook for year-end implies an inflection point, expressing confidence in a return to growth in 2026.

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CEO Brian Doubles differentiated between macro uncertainty and actual consumer behavior, noting that spending remains strong and responsible. He stated that while partners are discussing tariffs, it has not yet materialized in the data. CFO Brian Wenzel added that recent sales uplifts were driven by seasonal home trends and specific partner campaigns, not a broad pull-forward. On renewals, Wenzel confirmed they continue to make progress on extending contracts, with revenue beyond 2027 now in the high 80s.

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EVP and CFO Brian Wenzel confirmed they are slightly ahead of schedule on portfolio repricing but maintained previous guidance. He stated that broad-based credit tightening actions concluded in Q2 2024, with current actions being standard refinements. Wenzel noted that while minimum payments are up versus 2019, overall consumer line utilization has not changed significantly, and the company sees no major cracks in consumer health, suggesting a potential easing of credit restrictions in late 2025.

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EVP and CFO Brian Wenzel detailed that in a declining rate environment, NIM should see tailwinds from a lower cost of funds, particularly as high-yield savings and CDs reprice, and from higher revolve rates as payment rates moderate. On purchase volume, Wenzel stated that daily sales data shows stabilization after a decline in Q2 and Q3. CEO Brian Doubles added context that the slowdown is a normalization after record levels of consumer spend in the prior two years.

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Mark Casale, Chairman & CEO, stated that the best evidence of EssentEDGE's success is the company's higher earned premium yield compared to peers with similar default rates. He acknowledged that AI could facilitate MI cancellations but does not view it as a significant threat, seeing it as a net positive for borrowers. CFO David Weinstock addressed OpEx, reaffirming the full-year guidance of $160-$165 million and noting they are tracking toward the lower end.

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Chairman and CEO Mark Casale explained that unit economics have remained strong, targeting a 12-14% return range, and likely improved in late 2022. He highlighted the difference between these strong new business economics and the reported GAAP ROE, attributing the gap to the strategic value of holding excess capital for defensive or offensive opportunities. Regarding the title business, Casale stated its performance is as expected in a slow transaction market and that he is confident in the new leadership team's ability to position it for growth when interest rates decline.

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Mark Casale, Chairman and CEO, attributed the default inventory jump to seasonality and the normalization of cure activity post-forbearance. David Weinstock, CFO, added this reflects a return to normal pre-COVID seasonality. Regarding investments, Casale explained there was no change in philosophy; the company is simply returning to its normal asset mix after favoring short-term treasuries in 2022.

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President, Chairman & CEO Ronald Clarke framed it as a 'new payment ecosystem' beyond just stablecoins. He stated Corpay will incorporate these new rails as another tool, with key use cases being 24/7 payments and exotic geographies. The main opportunity is serving the new digital asset players by bridging their ecosystem to the traditional fiat world. Economically, Clarke explained that since 90%+ of value in B2B cross-border comes from currency conversion, not the payment rail, the impact of free blockchain rails is de minimis on revenue.

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President, Chairman & CEO, Ronald Clarke, framed stablecoins as part of a new payment ecosystem that Corpay will incorporate as another tool, particularly for 24/7 and exotic geography payments. He sees the main opportunity in providing on/off-ramp services between the new digital and traditional fiat ecosystems. He clarified that economics are not a major factor, as the vast majority of B2B cross-border revenue comes from currency conversion, not the minimal cost of the payment rail itself.

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CEO Dave Girouard indicated that funding for new products will involve a mix of banks, credit unions, and institutional capital, with a likely heavier weighting toward depository partners for HELOCs. He declined to forecast conversion rates, noting they are actively managed against growth, and confirmed the Walmart partnership remains successful with no new details to share.

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CEO Dave Girouard stated that new product funding will involve a mix of banks, credit unions, and institutional capital, with depository partners likely playing a larger role in home and auto. He cautioned that conversion rate gains are often reinvested into growth. He confirmed the Walmart partnership remains successful but offered no new details.

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CFO Sanjay Datta and CEO David Girouard both confirmed that there have been no pullbacks from any funding partners, including private credit firms, banks, or credit unions, stating the partnerships are performing as designed. Girouard added that Upstart operates conservatively, with guidance assuming no Fed rate cuts, and relies on its highly adaptive models to manage risk.

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President & CEO Rohit Gupta emphasized that the labor market and borrower balance sheets remain resilient, with no meaningful stress yet appearing in their prime borrower data. He acknowledged regional home price slowdowns but noted they are comparable to 2022 trends. EVP, CFO & Treasurer Dean Mitchell added that new delinquency rates are consistent with pre-pandemic levels and cure rates remain elevated due to embedded HPA. On the regulatory front, Gupta confirmed Enact is actively engaged with the GSEs, FHFA, and legislators on all key housing finance topics.

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President and CEO Rohit Gupta stated that Enact is actively monitoring economic conditions and has used its Rate360 engine to strengthen pricing in reaction to market uncertainty. He noted that while the company maintains prudent underwriting, it continues to support qualified borrowers. Regarding policy, Gupta mentioned constructive engagement with the FHFA and clarified that recent significant loss mitigation changes have been concentrated on FHA/VA loans, while strong GSE programs continue to support favorable cure trends.

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President and CEO Rohit Gupta explained that Enact is actively monitoring economic conditions and has used its Rate360 engine to strengthen pricing in response to uncertainty. He noted that recent government loss mitigation changes have primarily affected FHA/VA loans, while GSE programs remain strong and benefit from post-COVID best practices.

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CFO and Treasurer Dean Mitchell explained that reserving for hurricanes Helene and Milton will depend on the magnitude of Q4 delinquencies, noting that historically such events lead to high cure rates and low claims. President and CEO Rohit Gupta described Enact Re as a long-term, capital-efficient growth opportunity that will grow gradually over quarters and years. Regarding policy, Gupta stated it's too early to speculate on specific changes but emphasized that mortgage insurance has strong bipartisan support and the company has a track record of navigating different administrations successfully.

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EVP & CFO Perry Beberman stated that while the consumer remains resilient, the economic outlook is mixed. He noted that July sales trends were positive and that the company has reached the low end of its CET1 target range of 13-14%. Beberman confirmed that capital priorities remain funding growth, investing in the business, and returning capital to shareholders, with discussions ongoing with the board.

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EVP and CFO Perry Beberman stated it is difficult to precisely quantify the pull-forward effect but noted anecdotal evidence and mix shifts toward electronics and auto parts. He cautioned against extrapolating this short-term trend. If hard economic data were to follow sentiment downward, he said the company would maintain its current conservative credit posture, which would likely lead to slower improvements in credit metrics and potentially slower spending, but not a fundamental shift in strategy.

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EVP & CFO Perry Beberman stated that the capital deployment priority remains funding growth and reaching target capital ratios (e.g., ~14% CET1) before significant shareholder returns. On credit, he expressed comfort with the current posture, noting it's not a time to loosen. He explained that reaching the ~6% loss rate target is macro-dependent and unlikely by the end of 2025, as the current environment requires a slow, steady improvement rather than a quick, unemployment-driven cleanse.

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EVP and CFO Perry Beberman explained that future credit losses are highly dependent on the macroeconomic environment but expects a return to historical seasonality. He stated that it will take time for consumers to recover from prolonged inflation. Regarding the late fee rule, Beberman confirmed that mitigation efforts, such as APR increases and statement fees, are in the market but their benefits will build gradually over time and are not intended to cause over-earning before the rule's effective date.

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CFO Brian Brown explained that the TPO channel saw pricing pressure in January and April due to seasonality and market volatility, respectively, but noted conditions were improving in May. On the follow-up, Brown detailed that Rocket supports various subservicing models, including assisting MSR owners with recapture or operating under non-solicitation agreements, emphasizing flexibility to meet partner needs.

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CEO Melissa Smith described cross-sell activity between Mobility and Benefits and noted increasing synergies in the technology stack, with common infrastructure and some shared applications. CFO Jagtar Narula identified levers for a slowdown, including scrutinizing hiring, re-evaluating investment spend based on ROI, and cutting discretionary costs like travel. Melissa Smith added a focus on automation and AI to improve efficiency and customer experience while preserving key investments.

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CFO Jagtar Narula clarified that the impact from the OTA customer transition will increase further in Q4 before stabilizing next year, consistent with the previously guided ~1% impact to 2025 revenue. He also specified the Q4 EPS impact from lower fuel prices is about $0.23, in line with historical sensitivity, and confirmed that guidance assumes the recent same-store sales softness will persist through Q4.

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President and CFO Sumita Pandit confirmed the buyback is still executed via a 10b5-1 plan, but the company has adjusted the execution grid to be more aggressive given the perceived value in the stock. CEO Richard Thornberry addressed the cure rate drivers, acknowledging embedded equity as a key factor but also crediting improved industry and government loss mitigation structures, which he called 'muscle memory' from the GFC and COVID. He also cited the strong employment cycle as a significant contributing factor.

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CFO Sumita Pandit confirmed the overall portfolio yield was 3.9%, with new money yields between 4.75% and 5.25%. CEO Rick Thornberry declined to give specific in-force growth guidance but noted the positive combination of high persistency and a solid purchase market. Derek Brummer, President of Radian Mortgage Insurance, stated that 2023 origination quality was high and performance has exceeded expectations. Rick Thornberry described Radian Mortgage Capital as a medium-term opportunity and said the company expects to increase its securitization pace in 2025.

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Derek Brummer, President of Radian Mortgage Insurance, described the pricing environment as rational and stable, allowing Radian to leverage analytics to find value. CFO Sumita Pandit explained the 8% default-to-claim assumption is a prudent, through-the-cycle view. CEO Rick Thornberry added that this conservatism means the business is outperforming pricing assumptions, and while the housing cycle supports high cure rates, they will continue to monitor trends before making changes.

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President and CEO Adam Pollitzer explained that while newer loan vintages show higher incurred loss ratios due to less home price appreciation, the underlying borrower quality remains consistent with past vintages. He also stated the TCS renewal was on favorable terms and would not materially change the company's expense run rate. CFO Aurora Swithenbank added that the average mark-to-market loan-to-value (LTV) on the defaulted loan portfolio is 73.2%.

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President and CEO Adam Pollitzer described their capital strategy as 'balanced' and comfortable with current levels. CFO Aurora Swithenbank and Pollitzer explained the expense ratio is stable and within targets, with some calculation nuances related to reinsurance. Pollitzer also confirmed that hurricane-related defaults are reserved at a lower rate due to historically higher cure rates.

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CEO Douglas Shulman described the competitive environment as 'constructive,' allowing for strong origination growth at good pricing, and highlighted their balance sheet as a key advantage. He explained that their credit outlook can tolerate some inflation, as the 30% stress buffer applied to originations since August 2022 provides a significant cushion for profitability even if economic conditions worsen.

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CFO Jenny Osterhout characterized whole loan sales as 'additive versus necessary,' emphasizing that strong public market access is their key differentiator. She noted the program was expanded to $900 million for 2025, providing funding diversity and flexibility, but that they remain disciplined on economics. CEO Douglas Shulman explained that they don't manage to a specific loss rate but to a 20% return on equity for each loan. While the shift to higher-quality loans is driving losses down toward their long-term 6-7% target, the ultimate goal is profitability and capital generation, not just a low loss number.

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CEO Douglas Shulman clarified that the credit box was not loosened in aggregate. Instead, growth was driven by product innovations like using direct payroll data for income verification, which improves the customer experience and pull-through rate without compromising credit quality. He affirmed their commitment to an omnichannel strategy, stating the branch network remains a key competitive differentiator that builds customer trust, even for those who transact digitally.

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Richard Fairbank, Chairman and CEO, emphasized that their business model is built for resilience, with underwriting stressed for downturns. He noted key differences from the past include having card assets on-balance sheet and operating under CECL. Executive Jeff Norris added that their modern technology provides significant advantages in speed, data granularity, and AI-driven diagnostics, enhancing their ability to monitor credit and react quickly.

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CFO Andrew Young noted that Q1 NIM will see a ~15 basis point decrease from day count. Longer-term, he identified modest asset sensitivity as a headwind, while a steepening yield curve and continued card loan growth are potential tailwinds. On capital return, Mr. Young confirmed the pending deal influences their approach, as they are subject to regulatory pre-approval. He expects a slower repurchase pace until the deal closes and they can reassess capital needs as a combined company.

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Chairman and CEO Richard Fairbank expressed strong satisfaction with the market response to both the consumer and business Venture X cards. He positioned these products as key milestones in a long-term strategy to win at the top of the market, which also includes investments in the Capital One Travel portal and airport lounges. While not providing specific metrics, he emphasized that winning requires a comprehensive effort to build a premium brand and experiences. He confirmed the strategy's success by noting that the company's fastest purchase volume growth is coming from its highest-spending customer segments.

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CEO Timothy Mattke stated that while GSE reform is uncertain, it could increase volume for private MI, emphasizing the need for proper guardrails. CFO Nathaniel Colson added that lowering the claim rate would require conviction in a sustained favorable economy. He defined a 'through the cycle' underwriting loss ratio as being in the 20-40% range, far above recent performance.

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CFO Chris Lapointe projected 60-65% revenue growth for Financial Services, low-double-digits to teens for Lending, and low-double-digits to teens for the Tech Platform. He expects continued margin expansion in Financial Services. CEO Anthony Noto detailed investments in SoFi Plus, Invest, SMB lending, and Credit Card to drive future growth.

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CEO Anthony Noto stated there is significant upside to the current $81 revenue per product. He detailed future monetization opportunities in SoFi Invest, SoFi Money, and credit cards, while noting SMB and Protect are still early-stage. He also highlighted that the segment's current profitability is masked by long-term investments in the credit card and Invest businesses, which are still in their growth-focused, pre-profitability phases.

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