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    Mike Mayo

    Research Analyst at Wells Fargo

    Mike Mayo is Managing Director and Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research at Wells Fargo Securities, specializing in major American banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and other systemically important financial institutions. Renowned for his independent research and pointed analysis, Mayo has maintained a multi-year top ranking in the Institutional Investor poll and is recognized for bold predictions and accountability advocacy, though his recent two-year bank sector calls have trailed market performance. With a career beginning at the Federal Reserve in 1988, he previously held senior analyst roles at UBS, Lehman Brothers, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Prudential, and CLSA Americas before joining Wells Fargo in 2017. Mayo holds the CFA designation and has received major industry awards for ethics and leadership, including the CFA Institute’s ethics award and repeated recognition as one of the few analysts to anticipate the global financial crisis.

    Mike Mayo's questions to NORTHERN TRUST (NTRS) leadership

    Mike Mayo's questions to NORTHERN TRUST (NTRS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Mike Mayo pressed on the topic of independence, asking under what circumstances Northern Trust would consider divesting its custody business to address scale concerns, or alternatively, acquiring another firm to gain scale.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO Michael O'Grady argued that size does not equal scale, which is instead achieved through sector focus, technology leverage (AI, cloud), and process centralization. He stated the goal is to improve asset servicing margins from the low-20s to the high-20s to demonstrate this. EVP & CFO David Fox added that the high-margin asset owner segment already meets this profitability bar.

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    Mike Mayo's questions to COMERICA (CMA) leadership

    Mike Mayo's questions to COMERICA (CMA) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Questioned the company's justification for remaining independent given a decade of underperformance on metrics like efficiency, returns, and stock price. He also asked if the recent increase in industry M&A changes their strategic thinking.

    Answer

    The CEO responded that they are always aware of the need to perform and are focused on protecting the company, serving clients, and managing risk for the long term. He highlighted actions taken to reduce volatility and pointed to future tailwinds. He acknowledged that with a more favorable regulatory environment, M&A is likely to increase, and this is a factor they consider in their overall strategy.

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    Mike Mayo's questions to TRUIST FINANCIAL (TFC) leadership

    Mike Mayo's questions to TRUIST FINANCIAL (TFC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Mike Mayo of Wells Fargo asked for the CFO's perspective on a normalized Net Interest Margin (NIM) and the CEO's view on how much management time has been freed from merger and regulatory matters to focus on offense.

    Answer

    CFO Mike Maguire suggested a normalized NIM could reach the 'three teens' area over time, but stressed the primary focus is on NII dollar growth. CEO William Rogers declared the merger integration is 'fully behind us,' allowing the company to accelerate on its performance 'J-curve.' He described the team as having a 'champion mindset' and being better competitively positioned than ever to win in its markets.

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    Mike Mayo's questions to TRUIST FINANCIAL (TFC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Mike Mayo questioned the strategic focus on Pennsylvania and New Jersey given opportunities in the Southeast and asked about the actions being taken to improve deposit market share. He also inquired about the current competitive landscape.

    Answer

    CEO Bill Rogers explained that these northern states are existing markets offering disproportionate growth opportunities that complement the core Southeast strategy. He stated the company is past the main merger-related market share challenges and sees positive momentum. Rogers characterized the competitive environment as consistently intense but rational, asserting Truist's ability to compete is stronger than ever.

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    Mike Mayo's questions to FIFTH THIRD BANCORP (FITB) leadership

    Mike Mayo's questions to FIFTH THIRD BANCORP (FITB) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Mike Mayo asked for clarity on whether commercial loan growth is truly back, pointing to conflicting signals between upbeat commentary and pipelines versus soft recent results and conservative guidance.

    Answer

    CEO Tim Spence clarified that for their Main Street client base, loan growth is back, but it's tempered by significant uncertainty around supply chains and tariffs, which prevents a 'wild animal spirits' environment. He explained that the company's guidance is deliberately built to be achievable across a broad range of economic outcomes rather than relying on a best-case scenario, acknowledging the complexity clients are navigating.

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    Mike Mayo's questions to US BANCORP \DE\ (USB) leadership

    Mike Mayo's questions to US BANCORP \DE\ (USB) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Mike Mayo asked for clarification on the impact of deposit competition on NIM and the reason for a $9 billion increase in Risk-Weighted Assets (RWA). He also questioned the broader asset-liability management process and sought a timeframe for achieving the 3% NIM target.

    Answer

    Vice Chair & CFO John Stern attributed the RWA increase to the roll-off of a credit risk transfer and strong quarter-end commercial loan growth. On asset-liability management, he and President & CEO Gunjan Kedia emphasized that recent actions, like loan sales and securities repositioning, are strategically evolving the balance sheet for higher NII. John Stern reiterated that the 3% NIM is a medium-term target, with its achievement pace influenced by the path of interest rate cuts.

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    Mike Mayo's questions to PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP (PNC) leadership

    Mike Mayo's questions to PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP (PNC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo sought clarification on the unexpected loan growth, asking to distinguish between traditional middle-market lending and capital markets activity, and what was meant by the growth 'not repeating'.

    Answer

    Chairman & CEO William Demchak clarified the growth was from their 'traditional bread and butter' clients, driven by increased utilization and, more importantly, new client acquisition in expansion markets. EVP & CFO Robert Reilly and Mr. Demchak explained that the 'not repeating' comment referred to the tariff-driven utilization component, which is uncertain, whereas the market share gains represent a more permanent growth driver.

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    Mike Mayo's questions to GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP (GS) leadership

    Mike Mayo's questions to GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP (GS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Mike Mayo questioned whether the long-forecasted M&A boom is finally materializing and asked what an ideal acquisition for Goldman Sachs would look like.

    Answer

    Chairman & CEO David Solomon confirmed a pickup in M&A, citing a 30% year-over-year increase in announced volumes and a fifth consecutive quarterly rise in the firm's advisory backlog. CFO Denis Coleman added that clients turn to Goldman Sachs in uncertain times. On acquisitions, David Solomon reiterated that the focus would be on opportunities to accelerate the growth and scale of the Asset & Wealth Management franchise.

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    Mike Mayo's questions to MORGAN STANLEY (MS) leadership

    Mike Mayo's questions to MORGAN STANLEY (MS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Mike Mayo of Wells Fargo asked about the growing trend of lending through capital markets to non-bank financials versus traditional direct commercial lending, and how Morgan Stanley is positioned to participate in this shift.

    Answer

    Chairman & CEO Ted Pick suggested that regulatory limitations are easing, which will allow large, well-capitalized banks to reclaim market share in corporate financing from private credit. He stated Morgan Stanley intends to prudently expand its core lending products to sophisticated clients and sponsors, playing a more central role as financier and structurer, which aligns with the firm's focus on durable earnings.

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    Mike Mayo's questions to BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ (BAC) leadership

    Mike Mayo's questions to BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ (BAC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Mike Mayo of Wells Fargo Securities questioned why the net interest income (NII) guidance wasn't higher, given strong loan growth and fewer expected rate cuts, and asked for a preliminary outlook for the following year.

    Answer

    CFO Alastair Borthwick acknowledged the positive drivers but pointed to offsetting headwinds, such as international rate cuts, that keep the current guidance appropriate. For the next year, he indicated that the drivers of organic growth and the benefits from fixed-rate asset repricing are expected to continue, suggesting a path for sustained NII growth.

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    Mike Mayo's questions to STATE STREET (STT) leadership

    Mike Mayo's questions to STATE STREET (STT) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo questioned whether State Street was 'over-earning' from heightened market volatility and peak NII, and followed up by asking for evidence of improving core business momentum.

    Answer

    Interim CFO Mark Keating and CEO Ronald O'Hanley countered the 'over-earning' notion by explaining that while volatility helped, the strong Markets performance was also due to deeper client relationships. O'Hanley provided evidence of core momentum by highlighting the dramatic growth in quarterly servicing fee sales compared to 2020 and pointing to the upgraded full-year fee revenue guidance as a reflection of the franchise's increased power.

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    Mike Mayo's questions to STATE STREET (STT) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Asked about the timeline for the CFO search, the company's resilience in a potential global trade war scenario, and the proportion of variable expenses over a 1-2 year period.

    Answer

    The CFO search is advancing well and an announcement is expected in the near term. The company feels well-positioned to manage through a broad range of adverse scenarios due to its ability to accelerate expense management, leverage its investment book, and a proven track record of managing down unit costs. While not providing a specific number, management stated they have increased flexibility in their cost base through ongoing transformation and automation.

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    Mike Mayo's questions to STATE STREET (STT) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Asked about the core organic fee revenue growth rate for 2025, excluding specific headwinds, and inquired about the company's long-term growth rate expectations for the next four to five years.

    Answer

    Executives explained that the underlying fee growth guide is 5-7%, which is reduced to 3-5% by a known client roll-off and FX headwinds. They detailed the drivers for this sustainable growth, including a revamped sales effort, service quality improvements, and the Alpha value proposition, which have led to significantly higher servicing fee sales and a large revenue install backlog.

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    Mike Mayo's questions to CITIGROUP (C) leadership

    Mike Mayo's questions to CITIGROUP (C) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Mike Mayo of Wells Fargo asked for the specific amount of transformation costs in the second quarter to gauge the run rate and for clarification on the remaining stranded costs. He also questioned what Citigroup needs to demonstrate to regulators to have the amended portion of the consent order lifted.

    Answer

    CFO Mark Mason did not break out Q2 transformation costs but reiterated they would increase meaningfully in 2025 before declining in 2026. He confirmed approximately $1.2 billion in stranded costs remain, or about $300 million per quarter. CEO Jane Fraser explained that to lift consent orders, the firm must demonstrate that its programs are at their target state, running sustainably, and delivering the desired risk reduction, after which they are handed to regulators for review.

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    Mike Mayo's questions to CITIGROUP (C) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo requested the specific transformation cost for Q2, the amount of remaining stranded costs, and what Citigroup needs to demonstrate to regulators to have the amended portion of the consent order lifted.

    Answer

    CFO Mark Mason did not provide a specific Q2 transformation cost but noted a meaningful increase was playing through. He estimated remaining stranded costs at approximately $1.2 billion. CEO Jane Fraser explained that lifting the consent orders requires demonstrating that remediation programs are at their target state, operating sustainably, and delivering the intended risk reduction before they are handed to regulators for review.

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    Mike Mayo's questions to Bank of New York Mellon (BK) leadership

    Mike Mayo's questions to Bank of New York Mellon (BK) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Mike Mayo of Wells Fargo Securities challenged the company on its organic growth rate, asking about the trade-off between achieving very high returns and reinvesting more to accelerate growth beyond the current low-single-digit level. He also asked about the potential scope for acquisitions beyond traditional trust businesses.

    Answer

    CEO & Director Robin Vince acknowledged the point but highlighted that organic growth has been improving and is becoming less subject to market conditions due to deliberate strategy. He stressed that the company is taking a 'decade view' on its transformation and is in the early stages of harvesting investments. Regarding M&A, Vince stated that capability buys like Archer are the most likely path, but the firm's platforms model could theoretically allow for bolting on larger-scale acquisitions, though the bar remains extremely high.

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    Mike Mayo's questions to JPMORGAN CHASE & (JPM) leadership

    Mike Mayo's questions to JPMORGAN CHASE & (JPM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Asked about the drivers of strong commercial loan growth, what regulators could do to encourage more bank lending, whether JPMorgan would acquire a private credit firm, and for a definition of 'peak private credit'.

    Answer

    The strong loan growth was attributed to significant deal-related activity in the latter half of the quarter. To encourage more lending, executives suggested a holistic review of regulations like G-SIFI, LCR, and CCAR. An acquisition of a private credit firm is not a high priority as they can build it organically. 'Peak private credit' refers to the current environment of very low credit spreads and high valuations in the sector.

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    Mike Mayo's questions to JPMORGAN CHASE & (JPM) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Questioned Jamie Dimon about his succession plan and the reasons for his stated timeline to step down as CEO in less than five years.

    Answer

    Jamie Dimon stated that the succession plan is an ongoing board process with several exceptional internal candidates, but it is not yet determined. He confirmed his plan to stay for a few more years but cited his age (turning 69) and past health issues as reasons for not extending his tenure further, calling it the 'rational thing to do'.

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    Mike Mayo's questions to FITBI leadership

    Mike Mayo's questions to FITBI leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Asked to reconcile the disconnect between a turbulent macroeconomic environment and Fifth Third's positive outlook on loan growth, NII, and credit. Also questioned the process for assessing second and third-order risks from this environment.

    Answer

    Executives explained their guidance is based on what they currently see: strong loan pipelines, stable client financials, and visible consumer credit trends. They acknowledged future risks are captured in their allowance for credit losses, which has increased due to deteriorating economic forecasts. The bank performs bottoms-up, name-by-name reviews of its well-diversified commercial portfolio and notes that customer balance sheets are currently in good shape.

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    Mike Mayo's questions to KEYCORP /NEW/ (KEY) leadership

    Mike Mayo's questions to KEYCORP /NEW/ (KEY) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Mike Mayo of Wells Fargo asked if KeyCorp is indifferent between generating NII from lending versus fees from capital markets, inquired about the impact of fewer rate cuts on the NII guide, and questioned the rationale behind the special executive performance awards.

    Answer

    CEO Christopher M. Gorman confirmed the bank's model is to serve clients where they are best served, whether via the balance sheet or capital markets. CFO Clark H. I. Khayat noted that one fewer rate cut would not significantly impact the full-year NII guide. Regarding compensation, Mr. Gorman cited retention as a key factor considered by the independent board committee and referred to the upcoming proxy for details.

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