Myles Walton

Myles Walton questioned the Defense Electronics segment's margin outlook, noting that the implied performance for the rest of the year seems conservative compared to the strong Q1 run rate. He also requested a breakdown of the book-to-bill ratio by segment.

Answer

CEO Lynn Bamford confirmed that conservatism remains in the guidance. CFO K. Farkas specified that Q1 Defense Electronics margins benefited from favorable FX that is expected to fade, while R&D spending will ramp up. He also noted a deliberate effort to smooth the segment's historical fourth-quarter spike. For book-to-bill, Farkas provided the following breakdown: Aerospace & Industrial at 1.1x, Defense Electronics at 1.0x, and Naval & Power at a strong 1.6x.

Myles Walton asked about the driver behind the large increase in deferred revenue on the cash flow statement and the reasons for the Naval Defense business significantly outperforming its initial 2024 growth guidance. He also requested the 2024 book-to-bill by segment and the outlook for the subsea pump business.

Answer

CFO Chris Farkas attributed the record deferred revenue increase of $140 million to a high volume of naval orders and strong advance billings. He explained that Naval Defense's 2024 outperformance was due to better-than-expected material receipts and accelerated staffing. He provided 2024 book-to-bills of 1.05x for A&I, 1.16x for Defense Electronics, and 1.3x for Naval & Power. CEO Lynn Bamford added that while pro-fossil fuel policies are a tailwind for subsea pumps, the long-term potential remains at $250 million by the end of the decade.

Myles Walton asked about the significant implied Q4 margin uplift in the Aerospace & Industrial segment and its sustainability. He also questioned the unusual forecast for a sequential Q4 decline in revenue and margins for the historically strong Defense Electronics segment.

Answer

CFO Chris Farkas attributed the A&I margin expansion primarily to restructuring savings and volume absorption, with a notable impact expected in Q4. He confirmed the Q4 sequential decline in Defense Electronics is due to pulling revenues forward into Q3 to facilitate footprint restructuring for future growth, which temporarily affects the mix of higher-margin products.

Myles Walton asked for an outlook on L3Harris's involvement in Golden Dome space-based competitions, including HPTSS, space-based interceptor, and SDA Tranche 3, and also questioned the underlying margin performance of the SAS business, specifically if past program struggles are resolved and if the Q4 margin rate is indicative of next year's performance.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Christopher Kubasik expressed confidence in L3Harris's capabilities for missile defense architecture, anticipating potential awards for HPTSS and SDA Tranche 3 soon, pending government reopening. He highlighted successful performance on prior tranches and readiness of new facilities. SVP, CFO, and President of Aerojet Rocketdyne Kenneth Bedingfield noted that SAS programs with performance challenges are maturing, nearing completion, and opening new opportunities, expecting stability in SAS margin performance for 2026.

Myles Walton from Wolfe Research LLC asked about the timeline for securing the HPTSS constellation contract and its potential revenue contribution in 2025, and whether the 2026 sales guidance is contingent on winning the SDA Tranche 3 award.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Christopher Kubasik expressed hope for an HPTSS contract by year-end, which would contribute some revenue in 2025 and more significantly in 2026. He clarified that while he is confident about winning Tranche 3, the company's 2026 financial framework is not dependent on any single award and they would meet commitments regardless.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research inquired about the potential timeline for securing the HPTSS constellation contract and whether the company's 2026 sales guidance is dependent on winning the SDA Tranche 3 award.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Christopher Kubasik expressed hope for an HPTSS contract by year-end, which would contribute to 2025 and significantly to 2026 revenue. Regarding the 2026 framework, he stated that while they assume a win for Tranche 3, the company is confident in meeting its 2026 goals regardless, citing their ability to manage the portfolio to meet commitments.

Myles Walton asked about the extent of L3Harris's direct engagement with the President and his administration, and the expected timeline for gaining visibility into the fiscal '26 budget, Golden Dome, and other priorities.

Answer

CEO Christopher Kubasik stated he expects the FY26 'skinny' Presidential Budget Request (PBR) to be released in May, with funding allocated at a mission level rather than program-specific. He assured that he and his team spend significant time in D.C. and have the necessary access to key decision-makers to ensure their unique message of speed and capability is heard and their programs are supported.

Myles Walton inquired about the specific drivers accelerating free cash flow growth into 2026 and asked what portion of the increased $200 million in LHX NeXt savings would translate into margin improvement.

Answer

CFO Kenneth Bedingfield explained that free cash flow growth is aligned with accelerating top-line growth in 2026, driven by the F-35 TR-3 production ramp, recovering space budgets, and international opportunities. He reaffirmed the target for at least 40% of LHX NeXt savings to contribute to margin expansion, noting it was a key factor in 2024 and will support margin goals through 2026.

Myles Walton inquired about the accelerated cost reduction timeline, asking why the company isn't approaching its 16% margin target in 2025 if the $1 billion in savings is being achieved a year early.

Answer

CEO Christopher Kubasik emphasized that the cost savings initiative is a top priority and a 'Phase 2' of integration, showing strong results ahead of schedule. CFO Kenneth Bedingfield clarified that while they are tracking to margin flow-through targets, the path to the now 'at least 16%' margin goal in 2026 won't be linear. He noted that the savings are run-rate and will have long-term benefits, with margin improvement expected in 2025, but full details will be provided in January.

Myles Walton from Wolfe Research asked for insights into the implied end market growth driving Howmet Aerospace's $9 billion revenue outlook for 2026 and whether the company anticipates another year of exceptionally high incremental margins, similar to recent periods.

Answer

Executive Chairman and CEO John Plant indicated that commercial aerospace would be stronger in 2026, with higher build rates for narrow-body (737, A320) and wide-body (787, A350) aircraft. He projected mid-single-digit growth for defense and around double-digit growth for the combined industrial segment (gas turbine, oil & gas, general industrial). Plant deferred specific profit guidance for 2026 incremental margins to the February call but noted Q3 2025 incrementals were healthy at 50%.

Myles Walton inquired about the implied end market growth contributing to Howmet Aerospace's $9 billion revenue outlook for 2026 and whether the company anticipates another year of very high incremental margins, similar to recent performance.

Answer

Executive Chairman and CEO John Plant indicated stronger commercial aerospace growth in 2026, driven by higher narrow-body and wide-body build rates, a mid-single-digit increase in defense, and double-digit growth in the combined industrial segment. While deferring specific profit guidance to February, he noted Q3 incremental margins were 50% and Q4 is expected to be similar, suggesting continued strong performance.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research LLC inquired about the significance of product rationalization within the Engineered Structures segment, asking about its impact on future margins and potential revenue headwinds.

Answer

Executive Chairman and CEO John Plant explained that the majority of the rationalization has already occurred, driven by a business sale and a plant closure. He stated that these actions have solidified margins, and he expects the segment to maintain its current strong margin performance (above 20%) through the second half of the year. Plant noted that while commercial aerospace revenue in the segment was soft due to destocking, the overall strategy is to pursue both revenue growth and margin enhancement.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research asked about the Fastening Systems segment, specifically if it benefited from a competitor's fire and whether Howmet has secured new long-term agreements or market share gains.

Answer

Executive Chairman and CEO John Plant clarified that there was no meaningful revenue impact in Q1 from the competitor issue. However, he noted Howmet has booked $20-$30 million in related orders and is still quoting hundreds of parts, though he estimated the total opportunity would be well short of $100 million.

Myles Walton questioned the rationale behind the implied guidance for the remainder of the year, which suggests a step-down in margins and lower incrementals after Q1, asking if this reflects conservatism or specific headwinds.

Answer

Executive Chairman and CEO John Plant attributed the outlook to conservatism, stating that while they could have been more optimistic, significant uncertainties remain, particularly regarding Boeing's narrow-body production rates. He emphasized a cautious approach to avoid getting ahead of themselves given the lack of visibility and the back-end loaded nature of the year. Plant also noted they are planning for approximately 1,000 net new hires in 2025.

Myles Walton questioned the conservative mid-single-digit growth forecast for defense in 2025 and requested a breakdown of the $1.25 billion spares revenue.

Answer

CEO John Plant defended the forecast by noting that F-35 production rate increases are modest, though he is optimistic about spares demand for the growing fleet. CFO Ken Giacobbe clarified the spares revenue split for 2024, estimating approximately $550 million from commercial aero and $700 million from defense and IGT, with commercial aero growing at a faster rate.

Myles Walton from Wolfe Research questioned the implied flatness of HII's free cash flow in 2026, despite expectations for earnings growth and potentially lower capital expenditures. He sought clarification on the factors offsetting these positives and whether the previously discussed $700-800 million cash flow target is contingent on specific resolutions like SAWS. He also asked about the potential impact of a rumored executive order regarding aircraft carrier propulsion systems.

Answer

EVP and CFO Tom Seeley described the $600 million annual free cash flow guidance for 2025-2026 as a conservative estimate, influenced by award timing, working capital, and CapEx. He projected meaningful revenue growth but emphasized that a significant inflection in cash flow, reaching higher targets, depends on the return to traditional profitability as pre-COVID contracts are retired and new, more efficient contracts mature later in the decade. President and CEO Chris Kastner declined to comment on the rumored executive order, reiterating HII's commitment to building what the U.S. Navy requires.

Myles Walton asked for color on the implied flatness of cash flow in 2026, questioning if there are offsets to expected earnings growth and CapEx reduction, and how HII plans to reach the previously mentioned $700-800 million cash flow target. He also inquired about the potential impact of a rumored executive order to revert aircraft carrier designs from EMALS back to steam.

Answer

Tom Seeley, EVP and CFO, explained that the two-year cash flow guidance of approximately $600 million per year is a conservative run rate, considering the timing of awards, receipts, and working capital. He noted that while revenue is growing, the major catalyst for reaching higher cash flow targets (like $700-800 million) in the medium to long term will be the return of higher profitability as HII retires pre-COVID contracts and transitions to new, more efficiently aligned contracts. Chris Kastner, President and CEO, stated that HII would build whatever the Navy requests regarding aircraft carrier designs, without commenting directly on the rumored executive order.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research asked for an update on the AUKUS security pact's trajectory and the role of international shipbuilding partnerships. He also inquired about the number of employees hired during the quarter.

Answer

President and CEO Christopher Kastner expressed a 'very bullish' view on AUKUS, noting its broad support and HII's partnership with Babcock in Australia. He also highlighted a strategic relationship with HHI of Korea to boost industrial base capacity. He stated HII hired about 2,400 experienced employees in the quarter and has seen positive month-over-month retention improvements.

Myles Walton asked about Q1 workforce trends, including hiring and attrition, the progress of increased outsourcing, and whether the Submarine Industrial Base (SAS) program benefits aircraft carriers.

Answer

President and CEO Christopher Kastner reported hiring 1,000 experienced craftspeople and noted that attrition is trending down but is not yet at pre-COVID levels. He described the outsourcing program as on-schedule and high-quality. He also confirmed that SAS supports the entire nuclear industrial base, which includes aircraft carriers.

Myles Walton questioned the 2025 shipbuilding margin guidance, noting the Q1 forecast is at the low end before major initiatives take effect. He also asked about the risk-reward balance of the plan to significantly increase outsourcing, particularly concerning quality control.

Answer

President and CEO Christopher Kastner described the full-year guidance as inclusive of all initiatives and also 'a bit conservative' given recent performance. CFO Thomas Stiehle noted the Q1 guide reflects the immediate outlook, with potential for improvement as the year progresses. On outsourcing, Kastner acknowledged the risks but stated they are mitigated by working with existing, proven partners and using pilot projects. Stiehle added that the W International acquisition is a smart way to 'in-source' a proven workforce to help achieve throughput goals.

Myles Walton requested a breakdown of the $800 million operating cash flow guidance reduction, seeking to understand how much was tied to contract delays versus operational performance, and asked for a framework for future cash generation.

Answer

CEO Christopher Kastner and CFO Thomas Stiehle stated the reduction was a combination of both factors but declined to provide a specific split due to ongoing contract negotiations. For future cash flow, Mr. Kastner projected it would be 'choppy for a couple of years,' with recovery dependent on execution, the final structure of new contracts, and the transition away from pre-COVID agreements.

Myles Walton asked for deeper insight into ATI's engine mix, specifically how the 50% MRO component of total engine sales is split between in-production and out-of-production engines. He also questioned if the mid-teens growth projected by OEMs for next year's engine market aligns with ATI's expectations.

Answer

Kim Fields (President and CEO, ATI) clarified that ATI has higher content on next-generation engines like LEAP and GTF, and the MRO demand primarily stems from these engines undergoing continued maintenance and heavier shop visits, where ATI's forged discs are critical. She confirmed that the mid-teens growth projection for the engine market aligns with ATI's expectations, anticipating sustained growth through the decade, supported by long-term agreements and close customer partnerships.

Myles Walton asked for a deeper understanding of ATI's engine mix, specifically how much of the 50% MRO in total engine sales is for in-production versus out-of-production engines. He also asked if the mid-teens engine growth forecast by OEMs for next year aligns with ATI's expectations.

Answer

Kim Fields, President and CEO, ATI, clarified that ATI's higher content is on next-generation engines like LEAP and GTF, and MRO activity is primarily driven by these newer engines. She confirmed that the mid-teens growth forecast for the engine market aligns with ATI's expectations, anticipating continued growth through the decade supported by long-term agreements and customer partnerships.

Myles Walton asked about the progress of share gains in the isothermal forging business for the GTF engine and inquired about the full-year revenue expectation for the titanium business.

Answer

President & CEO Kimberly Fields described the forging business as a 'real bright spot,' stating that H1 shipments to Pratt & Whitney nearly equaled all of 2024, with another 50% growth expected over the next two years. On the second point, EVP & CFO Don Newman stated that full-year titanium revenue is expected to be flattish compared to the prior year, as growth is constrained by ongoing airframe inventory destocking.

Myles Walton asked about the drivers behind the strong aerospace orders for the second consecutive quarter, inquiring if improved delivery pace, certification progress, or other factors were influencing customer decisions, and also about geographical areas of particular strength.

Answer

Phebe Novakovic, Chairman and CEO of General Dynamics, explained that the strong aerospace orders were driven by a combination of factors including the resilient economy, new models, and improving delivery cadence. She noted that demand was strong across the portfolio, particularly for the G800, with North America showing particular geographical strength.

Myles Walton asked if strong first-half aerospace bookings increased confidence in a full-year book-to-bill above 1.0 and questioned if the G400 program timeline had slipped, causing margin pressure in 2028.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Phebe Novakovic maintained the full-year book-to-bill forecast of 'at one' but noted strong demand continues. Regarding the G400, she clarified the program was intentionally slowed to manage overall workload, not due to certification issues, and that the 2028 margin comment was directional color on the impact of a new, lower-margin aircraft entering the mix.

Myles Walton asked if management's confidence in the full-year outlook already encompasses their assessment of potential tariff impacts. He also inquired if the administration's priorities are affecting the Combat business, specifically the Abrams and Stryker programs.

Answer

Phebe Novakovic, Chairman and CEO, stated that they don't expect significant impacts on defense from tariffs, with some manageable impact on Gulfstream, but emphasized it's too early to be specific. On Combat, she noted the CR funded Abrams and Stryker at a lesser rate but highlighted the Army's great interest in accelerating the next-generation Abrams, which GD considers a very positive step.

Myles Walton from Wolfe Research noted that the causes for G700 delivery issues seemed similar to the prior quarter and asked what had changed to increase management's confidence going forward. He also followed up on working capital, questioning why it was building despite expectations of relief from the Aerospace segment.

Answer

Phebe Novakovic, Chairman and CEO, provided a new detail, explaining that inducting aircraft into completions without engines was a significant factor whose implications became clearer over time. She stated this process issue is now largely resolved and factored into 2025 guidance. She also confirmed that working capital builds at Gulfstream (for G800/G400 certification) and in Combat and Marine segments were offsetting any relief.

Myles Walton from Wolfe Research sought clarification on the Marine Systems segment's margin, questioning the drop from Q3 to the implied Q4 rate and asking if the lower rate is the new baseline for 2025. He also asked for a real-time update on October G700 deliveries.

Answer

CEO Phebe Novakovic attributed the Q3 margin strength partly to good performance at NASSCO and Electric Boat but noted results will be 'lumpy' quarter-to-quarter due to supply chain impacts expected in Q4. She deferred specific 2025 margin guidance to January but indicated the ability to drive incremental margins depends on cost reduction and productivity efforts. She confirmed that G700 deliveries for October were on schedule.

Myles Walton asked about the potential for Hexcel's $500 million growth at peak manufacturer production rates to translate into $1 billion of Airbus revenue, and how much higher this figure would be if contracts allowed for inflationary pricing escalation over the last decade. He also inquired about the projected interest costs for 2026 in light of the Accelerated Share Repurchase (ASR) program.

Answer

CEO Tom Gentile explained that the A350 contract, signed in 2008 and extended in 2016, provided the foundation for significant capital investments. He noted that while Hexcel's revenue peaked at $2.355 billion with 18% margins in 2019, current margins are curtailed to about 16% due to a 200 basis point headwind from inflation. He anticipates returning to 18% margins with the full impact of the $500 million from major programs. EVP and CFO Patrick Winterlich clarified that 2026 interest costs would be significantly less than $50 million, decreasing rapidly after Q1, with the revolver interest rate around 5.5%.

Myles Walton asked about the impact of inflationary pricing on Hexcel's long-term Airbus contracts, particularly for the A350 program, and how this affects the projected $500 million growth and margin recovery. He also inquired about the expected interest costs for 2026 following the Accelerated Share Repurchase (ASR).

Answer

Tom Gentile, CEO, Chairman, and President, explained that while the A350 contract provided a foundation for significant capital investment, inflation has created a 200 basis point headwind, curtailing margins to about 16% when revenue returns to pre-pandemic levels. He anticipates that the full impact of the $500 million from all major programs, combined with productivity initiatives, will help restore margins to 18%. Patrick Winterlich, EVP and CFO, clarified that 2026 interest costs would be significantly lower than $50 million, with debt reducing rapidly after Q1 2026 due to strong free cash flow generation, and the revolver interest rate at approximately 5.5%.

Myles Walton from Wolfe Research LLC asked how Hexcel leverages its 'best supplier' award from Airbus, whether there is internal risk to the planned A350 production ramp in H2, and about the cash impact of the recent restructuring charge.

Answer

CEO Tom Gentile stated the award reinforces Hexcel's role in supporting rate increases and facilitates joint productivity initiatives. He confirmed no internal risk to meeting the H2 demand, as the company is staffed for it. CFO Patrick Winterlich specified that 85-90% of the $24 million restructuring charge will be cash outflows, primarily in Q3.

Myles Walton requested a breakdown of the 2025 Commercial Aerospace growth guidance between volume and price. He also asked about capital deployment, noting the Q4 pause in share repurchases and clarifying the scope of M&A.

Answer

Executive Patrick Winterlich confirmed that the majority of the aerospace growth is volume-driven, supplemented by pricing. Chairman, CEO & President Tom Gentile clarified that M&A will focus on advanced materials science, not structures. He explained the Q4 buyback pause was due to the significant $250 million repurchased earlier in the year and that the company intends to continue buybacks, absent a compelling M&A deal.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research, LLC inquired about the updated end-market growth assumptions for 2024, particularly for defense and industrial, and the expected revenue headwind from the planned divestiture of the Austrian industrial plant in 2025.

Answer

CEO Tom Gentile detailed Q3 pull rates for key programs (A350, 787, A320) and noted a conservative Q4 forecast for the MAX program. He stated the Austrian plant divestiture could be a $30-$40 million headwind in 2025. Executive Patrick Winterlich added that commercial aerospace growth should be near mid-teens, while industrial will be down strong double digits for 2024.

Myles Walton questioned the status of Textron Aviation's supply chain and whether it poses an impediment to achieving the $6.1 billion revenue forecast. He also asked if the recent strong bookings in Textron Systems indicate an inflection point for growth after a period of relatively flat revenue.

Answer

Scott Donnelly, Chairman, President, and CEO, acknowledged ongoing supply chain issues, noting fewer problematic part numbers but persistent struggles with critical suppliers, impacting production efficiencies. However, he expressed confidence in Textron Aviation's path to reach the $6.1 billion revenue target. For Textron Systems, Mr. Donnelly confirmed strong bookings, indicating an inflection point for growth, driven by the performance of the ATAC business, Ship-to-Shore Connector, and Sentinel program, overcoming earlier program restructuring challenges.

Myles Walton questioned the status of Textron Aviation's supply chain and whether it impedes reaching the $6.1 billion revenue forecast. He also asked if strong bookings in Textron Systems indicate an inflection point for growth after a period of flat revenue.

Answer

Scott Donnelly, Chairman, President, and CEO of Textron, acknowledged ongoing supply chain issues with critical suppliers affecting production but expressed confidence in achieving the $6.1 billion revenue target. He confirmed that strong bookings in Textron Systems, driven by ATAC, Ship-to-Shore Connector, and Sentinel programs, signal an inflection point for future growth despite earlier program restructurings.

Myles Walton from Wolfe Research inquired about Textron's interest in investing in the smaller drone market, given its experience in Group 3 UAS, and asked for an update on the Bell 525 helicopter certification process.

Answer

Scott C. Donnelly, Chairman, CEO & President, acknowledged Textron's strength in Group 3 UAS and ongoing R&D in other classes but did not comment on specific new investment plans. Regarding the Bell 525, he described the certification as being in its last stages and heavily dependent on the FAA's process, involving extensive documentation and final test criteria.

Myles Walton questioned the sequential decline in the Textron Systems backlog and asked for color on the larger use of cash in operating activities during the quarter.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Scott Donnelly explained that the Systems backlog is inherently 'lumpy' due to the timing of large contract awards and that the decline should not be over-interpreted. On cash flow, Donnelly attributed the use of cash to an additional inventory build at Aviation, which will normalize, and payment timing on government programs at Bell, with receipts expected in Q2.

Myles Walton asked about the reason for the R&D spending underrun in 2024 and the outlook for 2025. He also questioned how sensitive the Systems segment's 2025 outlook is to the outcomes of the FTUAS and RCV program decisions.

Answer

Scott Donnelly, Chairman and CEO, attributed the 2024 R&D underrun primarily to the conclusion of the FARA program at Bell, which reduced the required investment. He described the 2025 forecast of $500 million as a normalized level. For the Systems segment, Donnelly stated that the 2025 outlook has low sensitivity to the FTUAS and RCV decisions, as any awards would occur late in the year and ramp slowly, making them more impactful for 2026 and beyond.

Myles Walton asked about the significance of the FTUAS and Robotic Combat Vehicle programs for Textron Systems' growth and the certification timeline for the Bell 525 helicopter.

Answer

CEO Scott Donnelly identified the FTUAS and RCV programs as critical future growth drivers for the Systems segment. Regarding the Bell 525, he indicated that while the flight test program is progressing well, certification would likely slip into 2025 due to the extensive FAA documentation and approval process.

Myles Walton asked about the implied sequential revenue growth for Q4, particularly for Aeronautics Systems (AS), inquiring if extra working days or specific releases within aeronautics were driving this, and followed up on any impact from the Boeing strike on F-18.

Answer

Ken Crews, CFO, stated that while there is one additional working day in Q4, it's not the primary driver. The ramp for AS is driven by inventory liquidations from new program awards, natural progression of new production wins like Tacomo, and timing associated with supplier performance and material deliveries on mature production programs. He confirmed no impact from the Boeing strike on F-18.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research sought clarification on the cash benefit from the R&D capitalization reversal and asked for more detail on the space-based interceptors the company is testing, including whether they are on-orbit and their technical approach.

Answer

CFO Kenneth Crews clarified that the tax reform provides an additional cash benefit of $200 million on top of the existing baseline plan. Chair, CEO & President Kathy Warden stated that the space-based interceptor tests are currently ground-based. Citing competitive sensitivities, she declined to provide further detail on the technical approach but noted the capability could be accelerated to meet the administration's desired timeframe.

Myles Walton questioned the company's confidence in its significant second-half sales ramp, given that Q1 sales came in below expectations and the delayed bookings are not yet secured. He also asked for clarification on whether any programs experienced stop-work orders.

Answer

CFO Ken Crews explained that confidence in the H2 ramp is based on large awards from late 2024 already in backlog, planned ramps on existing programs like Sentinel, and expected new competitive awards in space. He confirmed the issue was timing of new contracts, not stop-work orders.

Myles Walton from Wolfe Research asked about Northrop's potential participation and timing for the F/A-XX program and sought confirmation on the company's long-term free cash flow target for 2028.

Answer

CEO Kathy Warden confirmed that Northrop Grumman is one of the companies in the Navy's source selection for its next-generation fighter but could not provide more detail due to the restricted nature of the procurement. CFO Ken Crews reaffirmed that the company remains on track to achieve its previously stated target of $4 billion in free cash flow in 2028.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research asked for confirmation that 2024 free cash flow would reach the high end of its range and questioned the drivers for the 2025 increase, noting that it seemed fully accounted for by non-operational items and asking if working capital was an offset.

Answer

Outgoing CFO David Keffer clarified he was not guiding to a specific end of the 2024 free cash flow range, only noting that Q4 would be strong. New CFO Ken Cruse added that for 2025, working capital is expected to be relatively flat, and the primary drivers of cash flow expansion will be improved operating performance and lower capital investments, not just tax and pension benefits.

Myles Walton sought clarification on the 30% GTF MRO output target for the full year, implying a significant Q4 improvement, and asked CEO Chris Calio about the limitations to growth for the Raytheon segment, given strong demand and expectations for accelerated revenue.

Answer

CEO and Chairman Chris Calio confirmed the 30% GTF MRO output target, citing record gate restarts, strong material flow, and improved repair network productivity. He explained Raytheon's growth limitations are not demand-related but tied to supply chain health and the need for accelerated material receipts. CFO Neil Mitchill added that Raytheon's Q3 organic growth was substantial, particularly in Land and Air Defense Systems.

Myles Walton sought clarification on the 30% GTF MRO output target for the full year, implying a significant Q4 improvement, and asked about the limitations to growth for the Raytheon segment despite strong demand.

Answer

CEO Chris Calio confirmed the 30% GTF MRO output target, citing record gate restarts, strong material flow, increased repair network output, and improved shop productivity. For Raytheon, he highlighted robust demand (2.27 book-to-bill), substantial capacity investments, and the critical need for continued supply chain health. CFO Neil Mitchill added that Raytheon's Q3 organic growth was 10%, with Land and Air Defense Systems showing significantly higher growth.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research sought clarification on tariff assumptions for the remainder of the year and asked about the specific cash flow benefit from the legislative reversal of R&D expense capitalization.

Answer

Neil Mitchill, CFO, clarified that the current $500 million tariff forecast assumes current rates hold, but the company's EPS and cash flow guidance ranges could absorb potential increases. Regarding the tax legislation, he explained that the permanent restoration of R&D expensing provides a moderate cash benefit this year, offsetting about 25-30% of the tariff headwind, with further benefits expected in 2026 and beyond.

Myles Walton inquired about potential secondary impacts from tariffs not included in the outlook, such as changes in customer buying behavior in China and the risk of supply chain disruptions.

Answer

Executive Chairman and CEO Christopher Calio noted that RTX is working closely with its supply base to manage tariff impacts and avoid disruptions, highlighting recent supply chain improvements. Regarding China, he acknowledged its importance as a market but emphasized that RTX has been actively diversifying its global supply chain for some time, an effort accelerated by COVID-19.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research inquired about the GTF powder metal issue, seeking confirmation on the 2025 cash spending outlook and the previously discussed step-down in costs for 2026.

Answer

Executive Christopher Calio confirmed that the outlook for the GTF fleet management plan remains consistent, with a focus on increasing MRO output, which grew 30% last year. CFO Neil Mitchill added that the 2025 cash impact is projected to be $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion, with the residual amount currently planned for 2026, though the timing could shift.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research asked about the expected acceleration of organic growth at the Raytheon segment into 2025 and beyond, and how quickly the higher international mix in the backlog will translate into sales.

Answer

Executive Christopher Calio highlighted Raytheon's record $16.6 billion in quarterly bookings and a $60 billion backlog, which is now 44% international. He cautioned that converting this backlog will take time and a significant impact won't be seen in 2025. Executive Neil Mitchill added that the mix benefit is already positively impacting margins by over 100 basis points and that productivity is improving year-over-year as supply chain challenges ease.

Myles Walton inquired about GE Aerospace's capital deployment strategy, specifically the balance between share repurchases and potential M&A, given the strong cash generation and stock performance.

Answer

Larry Culp, Chairman and CEO, affirmed the balanced capital allocation approach, prioritizing reinvestment in the business and returning capital to shareholders, with an increased commitment of $24 billion for 2024-2026. He noted a disciplined M&A approach focused on strategic fit, operational value, and financial returns, citing the recent $300 million investment in Beta Technologies as an example.

Myles Walton questioned GE Aerospace's capital deployment strategy, specifically how the company balances share repurchases given strong cash generation and stock performance, and whether M&A is expected to become a more significant focus in the near future.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Larry Culp affirmed that the balanced capital allocation approach remains intact, prioritizing reinvestment in the business, returning capital to shareholders (increased to $24 billion for 2024-2026), and a disciplined approach to M&A. He noted the recent $300 million investment in Beta Technologies as an example of fortifying existing positions.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research, LLC sought clarification on the low single-digit net pricing assumption through 2028 and the rationale for the CFM56 retirement rate increasing to 3-4% from its historical 1.5%.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Lawrence Culp explained that pricing aims to more than offset inflation, with better pricing on new contracts materializing over time. SVP & CFO Rahul Ghai stated the higher retirement rate assumption is driven by forecasts for increased new aircraft deliveries from airframers, which necessitates retiring older aircraft to align with projected departure growth.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research inquired about the strong positive equipment gross margins in the quarter and whether it signaled a structural change in the traditional razor-razorblade business model.

Answer

Executive Blaire Shoor clarified that the reported margin is for the total company, which benefits from profitable defense engine shipments. Within the commercial segment (CES), while the spare engine ratio declined, it remained elevated. Management affirmed there is no fundamental change to the razor-razorblade model, but noted that mature wide-body engine platforms are now profitable on original equipment sales, which positively impacts the mix.

Myles Walton asked for clarification on why the 2025 operating profit growth guidance of $750 million is lower than the previously implied $1 billion, despite the strong outperformance in 2024.

Answer

CFO Rahul Ghai explained that over the two-year period from 2023 to 2025, the company is now on track to add $2.5 billion in profit, which is a third higher than anticipated nine months ago. For 2025 specifically, he detailed that CES profit is expected to grow by about $700 million, offset by a $100 million headwind from corporate eliminations and headwinds in OE from increased R&D and higher GE9X shipments.

Myles Walton from Wolfe Research inquired about potential customer concessions or financial penalties related to delivery delinquencies for both commercial and military engines.

Answer

Executive Rahul Ghai acknowledged that contracts contain such clauses but stated that any necessary accruals are already in the guidance and have not been a 'material number' in 2024. He emphasized that deliveries are improving sequentially and the company is focused on supporting its customers through the supply chain challenges.

Myles Walton followed up on the CFM56 engine exchange program, asking about asset ownership and its impact on cash flow, and requested a detailed walk-through of the strong implied second-half free cash flow.

Answer

CFO Dan Satterfield and CEO Russell Ford confirmed the initial exchange engine is an owned asset, but the program is self-funding after a small, one-time investment and not a drag on cash flow. For H2 free cash flow, Satterfield attributed the strength to the unwinding of working capital as a large block of engines ships, combined with lower CapEx and cash taxes in the second half of the year.

Myles Walton asked about the significant 70% year-over-year growth in intersegment sales from Component Repair Services (CRS) and how much this in-sourcing initiative contributed to the 83 basis points of margin expansion in the Engine Services segment. He also asked for a forward look on this trend.

Answer

CFO Dan Satterfield confirmed this growth is a result of a key in-sourcing initiative. He explained it benefits the enterprise by growing the higher-margin CRS segment while also increasing Engine Services' margins by providing repairs at internal cost. He stated the company is highly focused on this and expects the impact to grow further.

Myles Walton from Wolfe Research LLC asked for confirmation on the plan to reopen ticket sales in Q1 2026, questioned the strategy behind using the ATM equity program given the resulting shareholder dilution, and sought clarity on whether the reduction in engineering headcount was backfilled by production staff.

Answer

CEO Michael Colglazier confirmed the plan to reopen ticket sales in 2026. CFO Doug Ahrens stated the ATM is used to fund growth initiatives like the LVX program to accelerate future returns, balancing dilution with strategic investment. Colglazier clarified that the large reduction was in contractors, while a smaller, more recent reduction in full-time engineers reflects a lower net workload post-design phase.

Asked about the potential for co-funding the development of the next-generation mothership for non-tourism applications and sought clarification on the 2025 cash flow forecast compared to 2024 and prior guidance.

Answer

The company is actively considering partnership and co-funding opportunities for a derivative of its carrier ship, particularly for government and research missions, but its primary focus remains on getting the first two Delta ships operational. The CFO confirmed that 2025 cash spend will be lower than in 2024, with spending decelerating throughout the year and exiting Q4 below $100 million.

Myles Walton asked about the potential for co-funding the next-generation mothership for other applications like HALE (High Altitude, Long Endurance) and sought clarification on the 2025 cash consumption guidance.

Answer

CEO Michael Colglazier confirmed that exploring partnerships for co-funding a HALE-derivative of the mothership is a 'super smart opportunity' the company is actively considering, while stressing the immediate focus remains on getting the first two Delta ships operational. CFO Doug Ahrens affirmed that 2025 cash spend will be lower than 2024, with spending trending down through the year and expected to exit Q4 below a $100 million run rate.

Sought clarification on the 2028 timing for the second mothership, asking if this was a change or if the growth capital was simply green-lighting an existing plan. He also asked for more detail on the Delta design feedback loops.

Answer

Michael Colglazier confirmed the 2028 timeline for the mothership is consistent with previous plans and the announcement is more about green-lighting the capital investment, which now explicitly includes Deltas 3 and 4. He explained the design feedback involves both tool manufacturing and final assembly drawing refinements, providing an example of a minor component conflict that required a design tweak affecting the tooling.

Myles Walton from Wolfe Research LLC asked about a potential sequential decline in aftermarket revenue, which would be unusual for Q3, and inquired about distributor point-of-sale (POS) trends. He also asked if the company's long-term aftermarket analysis adjusted for aircraft age.

Answer

Co-COO Mike Lisman reported that distributor POS grew in the double digits, outpacing the overall commercial aftermarket. He clarified that aftermarket revenue was about flat sequentially from Q2 to Q3. Lisman also stated that the four-year historical analysis was based on volume and did not adjust for the increased age of the aircraft fleet.

Myles Walton asked for the reason behind the downward revision of the commercial OEM growth rate guidance and questioned why overall company guidance has been reiterated for two consecutive quarters without a raise, a departure from past trends.

Answer

Co-COO Mike Lisman explained the commercial OEM guidance was nudged down due to weakness in the business jet and helicopter submarkets, not commercial transport. Regarding the steady guidance, Lisman stated the company's process for setting guidance with a degree of conservatism hasn't changed and that tweaks to submarket forecasts this quarter netted out to a push.

Myles Walton asked about the unexpected sequential increase in Q1 margins, the cause of high contract loss amortization, and the details of the asset sold that resulted in a gain.

Answer

CFO Sarah Wynne attributed the strong Q1 margin to a significant mix shift from commercial OEM to commercial aftermarket, along with productivity projects. She explained that the contract loss amortization relates to lumpy contracts from the Esterline acquisition. Wynne and CEO Kevin Stein clarified that the gain on sale was from divesting a small business named Matt Systems, which was acquired with Cobham.

Myles Walton questioned the significant divergence between distribution and non-distribution aftermarket growth in Q4. He also asked if the OEM guidance assumes flat Boeing output year-over-year, given commentary on strike recovery times.

Answer

Co-COO Mike Lisman described the distribution channel data as a 'bit of a leading indicator' but noted it can be noisy quarter-to-quarter. Regarding OEM guidance, he reiterated their conservative, bottoms-up approach and acknowledged they are likely 'more conservative here than others' due to supply chain fragility, without confirming specific build rate assumptions.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research asked for commentary on recent NASA budget fluctuations, the growth outlook for the Space Solutions segment excluding a winding-down contract, and for any details on a significant undisclosed defense contract.

Answer

CEO Dylan Taylor stated that funding for their key NASA program, CLD, remains robust and that budget volatility can play to Voyager's strengths as an agile commercial platform. CFO Phil De Sousa noted the Space Solutions segment will face headwinds from the contract wind-down through Q1 2026 before returning to growth. He disclosed that the unnamed contract was the largest revenue driver in Q2 at ~$14 million but is expected to contribute less in the second half.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research, LLC asked for clarification on the strong performance in the Defense segment, questioning why the high margin wouldn't continue if driven by POC completion. He also asked for the reason behind aircraft deliveries moving into the next quarter.

Answer

Antonio Garcia, EVP - Financial & IR, clarified that the Defense segment is on a clear path toward higher single-digit margins as the contract mix shifts to more profitable export contracts, but this is a gradual progression. Regarding deliveries, he explained the shift was due to commercial paperwork and customer readiness issues, not production problems or tariff-related delays.

Myles Walton from Wolfe Research inquired about the impact of U.S. tariffs, asking if they are causing hesitation among U.S. airlines in accepting E175s.

Answer

CFO Antonio Carlos Garcia stated the estimated 90 basis point EBIT margin impact from tariffs is concentrated in Executive Aviation and Services. He noted that currently, U.S. customers are bearing the cost and there has been no commercial setback, but it is still early to be certain.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research inquired about ongoing supply chain constraints that are limiting growth and asked about any specific exposure to the Precision Castparts fire.

Answer

CEO Francisco Neto acknowledged that supply chain issues persist and that bottlenecks move between suppliers, but stated the 2025 production plan is realistic and accounts for these limitations. He mentioned they are using digital tools to manage risks and that while the year will be challenging, they are prepared. He confirmed they are managing risks like the one mentioned.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research asked about FTAI's capital return plans, specifically regarding share repurchases, leverage comfort levels, and the rationale for its target portfolio size of 350-400 CFM56 engines in an asset-light model.

Answer

Joseph Adams, Chairman, CEO & Director, confirmed the goal of achieving a strong BB rating this year and being comfortable with leverage below 3x EBITDA. He stated that after prioritizing growth investments, share buybacks would be the top use for surplus capital. He explained the engine portfolio target is sustainable because engines within the SCI vehicle are effectively under FTAI's management, providing access to a larger inventory without direct ownership, thus supporting the asset-light strategy.

Myles Walton asked about the engine mix of assets in the SCI program, the sourcing channels for these assets, and sought clarification on an accounting elimination and a free cash flow calculation.

Answer

CEO Joseph Adams and COO David Moreno confirmed that the vast majority (~90%) of SCI assets are CFM-powered. Adams detailed sourcing from both large lessors and directly from airlines via sale-leasebacks. CFO Eun Nam clarified a $7 million profit elimination was for intra-entity sales to SCI. Adams also confirmed the H1 free cash flow forecast is comparable to the 'Adjusted Free Cash Flow' line item in the presentation.

Myles Walton sought clarification on the SCI partnership, the size of the investment pipeline, and the nature of the $310 million replacement CapEx in the 2025 cash flow forecast. Specifically, he asked if the $1 billion pipeline was incremental to the seed portfolio and if the CapEx was a recurring figure.

Answer

CEO Joe Adams clarified that the first SCI closing was with a group of partners whose collective stake is larger than FTAI's, with a second closing expected soon. He confirmed the $1 billion investment pipeline includes the initial $550 million seed portfolio, it is not incremental. Adams also explained that the $310 million in replacement CapEx is not a recurring annual figure; it is specifically for replacing assets sold from FTAI's balance sheet to maintain the existing business, separate from SCI's capital needs.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research asked for clarification on the Q2 free cash flow outperformance and its impact on the full-year guidance, suggesting a revised target of approximately $3 billion in cash usage.

Answer

EVP & CFO Brian West confirmed that a full-year free cash flow usage of around $3 billion is a 'pretty good assumption.' He attributed the Q2 beat to higher commercial delivery volume, particularly on the 777 program, and favorable timing. West guided for Q3 cash flow to be similar to Q2's usage, before a potential one-time DOJ payment, setting up for a positive free cash flow in Q4.

Myles Walton asked for confirmation on full-year delivery guidance, specifically whether the framework of low 400s for the 737 and around 80 for the 787 still holds, given the potential disruption of 50 aircraft deliveries to China.

Answer

EVP and CFO Brian West confirmed that the delivery guidance remains in the right ballpark. He explained that a strong operational start to the year provides a buffer to offset potential pressure from the China situation. West also provided Q2 delivery expectations and affirmed that production rate increases for both programs will proceed as planned.

Myles Walton asked about the importance of the Spirit AeroSystems integration for achieving production rates, ongoing 787 supply chain constraints like interiors and heat exchangers, and the potential 787 delivery total for 2025.

Answer

CEO Kelly Ortberg asserted that Spirit fuselages are not a constraint for the 38/month rate and that seat monuments and their certification remain the key challenge for the 787 program. CFO Brian West added that a 787 delivery number of 75-80 for the year is 'doable, maybe a little bit better,' based on production rate increases and liquidating inventory.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research asked for clarification on what CEO Kelly Ortberg considers core versus non-core businesses and how significant portfolio shaping will be in the company's turnaround plan.

Answer

President and CEO Kelly Ortberg stated that Boeing's core businesses are commercial airplanes and defense systems, which will remain with the company. He confirmed an ongoing evaluation of the broader portfolio to identify non-essential or distracting fringe businesses that could be divested, emphasizing a strategy of doing less but doing it better. However, he noted that no specific list of assets for divestiture has been created yet.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research LLC asked why investors should feel confident that the problem programs, particularly the classified Aeronautics program, have been de-risked, noting the corrective actions sound similar to those mentioned in Q4. He also inquired about the duration of the challenging contract.

Answer

CEO James Taiclet explained that a reconstituted review team with broader expertise, led by new CFO Evan Scott, conducted a more in-depth analysis that re-baselined longstanding assumptions, leading to the new charge. Taiclet assured that this higher level of scrutiny will continue and that he is engaging customers to potentially restructure contracts. CFO Evan Scott added that the enhanced controls implemented after Q4 provided better and earlier insights into the emerging cost challenges.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research asked why investors should feel confident that problem programs, particularly the classified Aeronautics program, have been de-risked, noting that the described process changes sound similar to those mentioned in Q4 2024.

Answer

Chairman, President & CEO James Taiclet explained that a reconstituted program review team with wider expertise, led by new CFO Evan Scott, conducted a more detailed reassessment that re-baselined longstanding assumptions, leading to the new charge. Taiclet also stated he would engage customers to restructure contracts. CFO Evan Scott added that the new controls provided better insight into emerging challenges, allowing for earlier signaling of cost issues.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research inquired about the cash flow impact of the unplanned Q4 charges, particularly on the Aeronautics side, and asked if the significant pension funding requirement is expected to return in 2026.

Answer

CFO Jesus Malave confirmed the Aeronautics classified program charge will create a cash drag over the next 2-3 years. Regarding 2026 pension requirements, he stated the company will use a similar formula as before: driving working capital improvements to offset the headwind and leveraging its strong balance sheet for flexibility.

Myles Walton asked for a follow-up on the CCA program, specifically if Lockheed is competing on the autonomy portion of Increment 1, and requested an update on a classified Aeronautics contract, including any line of sight to improved performance.

Answer

CEO James Taiclet could not comment on Increment 1 specifics due to classification but highlighted heavy investment in autonomy, citing public demonstrations of an autonomous Black Hawk and F-16. CFO Jesus Malave addressed the Aeronautics classified program, acknowledging an $80 million charge in the quarter due to higher costs from an aggressively priced bid. He stated the team is focused on changing the program's trajectory while meeting commitments.

Asked about rumors of the company exploring strategic options and for an update on the Geared Solutions business performance and outlook, particularly concerning V-22 and LEAP programs.

Answer

The company does not comment on rumors but views them as a compliment on their progress. The Geared Solutions business is expected to see incremental year-over-year improvement. V-22 has been an important program, and they anticipate its recovery. LEAP gearbox production will be maintained at a fairly high rate due to an agreement with GE.

Asked for reasons behind the worsened Q2 free cash flow forecast, the confidence in the full-year recovery, and whether the company is considering further portfolio actions or strategic alternatives.

Answer

The Q2 cash flow outlook worsened due to working capital build from delayed OEM ramps and supply chain issues, which are expected to reverse in the second half. The company continuously evaluates strategic options but is currently focused on deleveraging with its existing portfolio.

Asked about the net benefit of the $40 million cost reduction in fiscal '25, whether there would be additional restructuring costs, and requested more detail on the significant margin miss in the Interiors business.

Answer

The $40 million in cost cuts is a gross figure; the net benefit in fiscal '25 will be $25-$30 million after inflation. No significant additional restructuring costs are anticipated. The Interiors margin miss was caused by incorrect cost estimating on work transfers and timing issues with hedges and sourcing, all of which are being addressed. The underlying business is strong and expected to recover.

Questioned the nature of the $40M in cost savings, the implied margins of the divested business, the revenue mix outlook, and the nature and size of selected IP sales planned for Q4.

Answer

The $40M cost savings are from rightsizing corporate overhead after the divestiture. The divested business's implied margin difference is due to seasonality, with Q4 being stronger. The revenue mix fluctuates but is expected to average 60/40 commercial/military. The Q4 IP sales are similar to past high-margin transactions and are estimated to be $10M-$13M.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research asked CEO Pat Shanahan about his interest in the Boeing CEO position and also requested an update on the status of addressing the findings from the FAA's recent audit.

Answer

CEO Pat Shanahan responded to the CEO question by stating he is 'focused on Spirit' every day. Regarding the audit, he recalled 28 findings and expressed confidence that 'every item has been addressed with a mitigating action.' He emphasized that their internal quality plan is more comprehensive than the audit and that they are already seeing a 15% quality improvement across programs.

Myles Walton of Wolfe Research asked about Pat Shanahan's interest in the Boeing CEO role and requested a quantification of how many FAA audit findings have been addressed.

Answer

CEO Pat Shanahan responded that his focus is solely on Spirit AeroSystems. Regarding the audit, he recalled 28 findings and expressed confidence that all have been addressed with mitigating actions, noting that their internal quality plan is even broader and has already yielded a 15% improvement in quality.

Asked about reconciling declining aerospace orders with market growth, the reasons for lighter-than-expected aerospace margins, the aftermarket growth outlook within aerospace for 2024, and the expected working capital usage in the 2024 free cash flow forecast.

Answer

Aerospace orders are lumpy and the decline is a timing issue, with over $2.5B in LTAs pending. Lighter margins were driven by mix, particularly the integration of MB Aerospace which has no RSP program, and some productivity challenges. Aftermarket is expected to outpace overall aerospace growth. Working capital is expected to be roughly flat year-over-year for 2024.

The analyst questioned the increase in MB Aerospace deal dilution from $0.25 to $0.40, asked for guidance on a normalized tax rate for 2024, and sought clarification on the commercial OEM guidance within aerospace.

Answer

The increased dilution was primarily due to a higher-than-expected interest expense disallowance driven by the interest rate environment. The company is not ready to provide a 2024 tax rate. The aerospace guidance change is not due to performance but rather the product mix from the MB acquisition and amortization impacts.