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Natalia Bak

Natalia Bak

Research Analyst at Citigroup Inc.

United States

Natalia Bak is an Equity Research Senior Associate at Citigroup Global Markets, specializing in finance and consumer services. Since joining Citi in May 2023, she has contributed detailed equity analysis as part of the firm's broader coverage across major global indices, focusing on providing value-added research for institutional clients. Bak holds an undergraduate degree from Rutgers Business School and began her professional career following graduation, rapidly advancing in the equity research field. She brings a strong academic background along with early career momentum and demonstrates a commitment to fundamental market analysis and quantitative insight in her current role.

Natalia Bak's questions to Mayville Engineering Company (MEC) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Natalia Bak of Citigroup inquired about the impact of reshoring on the business, asking about any upcoming contracts or OEM relationships shifting from competitors. She also asked about the long-term strategy for diversifying into new verticals like data centers and defense, and sought details on the sustainability of the military backlog, specifically the mix between recurring and new programs.

Answer

President, CEO & Director Jag Reddy confirmed that MEC is seeing significant reshoring activity, particularly in aluminum fabrications, which is driving new business wins. He noted that while steel fabrication inquiries are high, decisions are slower due to tariff uncertainty. He highlighted the AccuFab acquisition as key to the data center diversification strategy and mentioned a legacy business pipeline of over $280 million. For military, he explained the backlog is mostly recurring revenue from stable, long-term platforms like JLTV and Humvee, which are expected to continue.

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Question · Q1 2025

Natalia Bak from Citigroup Inc. asked about the current tone of customer conversations compared to recent months. She also inquired about the revenue mix between long-term and short-cycle projects and its effect on forward visibility, as well as the expected timing for a recovery in the Agriculture market.

Answer

Executive Jagadeesh Reddy characterized conversations in the Ag and Powersports markets as 'slightly muted' due to ongoing destocking, but noted the company is ahead of schedule on its $100 million new business win target, with many wins starting in 2026 and 2027. He explained that while most new business has a longer lead time, tariff-related reshoring opportunities could start up in the second half of the year. For the Ag market, he stated the current assumption is for a gradual recovery in 2026. Executive Rachele Lehr added that new wins are incorporating the company's value-based pricing model, which will benefit future margins.

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Question · Q1 2025

Natalia Bak also asked about the timing for recovery in the agricultural end market.

Answer

CEO Jag Reddy stated that the initial assumption is a gradual recovery for agriculture in 2026, but a bounce back is possible depending on global trade policy and farmer sentiment.

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Natalia Bak's questions to CSWI leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Asked for an outlook on the macro environment, the potential impact of the new administration and IRA rollbacks, and whether the HVAC refrigerant prebuy was affecting results.

Answer

The company remains favorably inclined on the macro environment, expecting a normal year of growth, and believes its focus on high-growth markets allows it to outperform. They see minimal impact from potential IRA changes as it was not a major tailwind, and they are agnostic to refrigerant types. The refrigerant prebuy may have been a minor headwind in Q3 as distributors managed working capital, but it is not a long-term concern. From an M&A perspective, higher rates and regulatory scrutiny are viewed as a competitive advantage.

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