Nathan Martin

Nathan Martin inquired about the expected cadence of shipments for Peabody's seaborne metallurgical and thermal segments throughout 2026, particularly anticipating a weaker first quarter, and sought clarification on the quality breakdown for seaborne met coal sales. He also asked when Peabody expects to generate sufficient free cash flow to resume share buybacks.

Answer

Mark Spurbeck, Chief Financial Officer, confirmed that Q1 2026 is expected to be the weakest for seaborne thermal due to mine sequencing at Wilpinjong and Wambo, and for seaborne met due to two longwall moves and Centurion's ramp-up. He clarified that Centurion's 3.5 million tons will sell at full benchmark pricing, while the rest of the met portfolio will remain in the 70% range. Spurbeck also indicated that with Centurion development risk off the table and improved met prices, substantial free cash flow generation is expected, with shareholder returns being the number one priority, potentially closer to 100% of free cash flow.

Nathan Martin from The Benchmark Company inquired about the expected cadence of shipments for Peabody's seaborne metallurgical and seaborne thermal segments throughout 2026, particularly noting Q1 as potentially the weakest due to Centurion's longwall start-up and Wilpinjong's sequencing. He also asked for a quality breakdown of the seaborne met segment, given the 80% benchmark realization target, and when Peabody expects to generate sufficient free cash flow for share buybacks.

Answer

Mark Spurbeck, Peabody's Chief Financial Officer, confirmed Q1 would be less than ratable for seaborne thermal due to mine sequencing at Wilpinjong and Wambo Open Cut, with volumes improving in Q2 and Q3. For seaborne met, he noted two longwall moves at Metropolitan and Shoal Creek, and Centurion's ramp-up (700k tons in Q1, 1-1.1M in Q2/Q3, then a Q4 longwall move). Mr. Spurbeck clarified that Centurion's 3.5 million tons would sell at full benchmark pricing, while the rest of the met portfolio would remain in the 70% range. He reiterated that shareholder returns are the top capital allocation priority, citing reduced Centurion capital spend ($150M less) and lower Anglo transaction expenses ($230M better start to the year), expecting substantial free cash flow generation at current Premium Hard Coking Coal prices, with returns closer to 100% of free cash flow.

Nathan Martin of The Benchmark Company asked for a savings estimate on the new production tax credit for the Shoal Creek mine. He also inquired about the drivers of the 'other' segment's results and whether Peabody was testing its reserves for rare earth elements (REEs).

Answer

EVP & CFO Mark Spurbeck estimated the Shoal Creek tax credit would provide an annual benefit of over $5 million starting in 2026 and explained that Q2 'other' segment results were boosted by lumpy asset sales. President and CEO Jim Grech confirmed Peabody is in a second phase of an REE evaluation program in the PRB, with encouraging initial data suggesting accessible concentrations.

Nathan Martin of The Benchmark Company asked for a savings estimate on the new 2.5% production tax credit for the Shoal Creek mine. He also inquired about the drivers of the lumpy results in the 'other' segment and, separately, asked if Peabody was testing its reserves for rare earth elements (REEs).

Answer

EVP & CFO Mark Spurbeck estimated the Shoal Creek tax credit would provide a benefit of over $5 million annually, starting in 2026. He explained that Q2 results in the 'other' segment were boosted by unpredictable asset sales. President and CEO Jim Grech confirmed Peabody is in a second phase of its REE evaluation program in the PRB, with encouraging initial data suggesting concentrations are comparable to or better than others in the basin and are highly accessible.

Nathan Martin of The Benchmark Company asked for a savings estimate for the Shoal Creek mine from the new production tax credit, inquired about drivers for the 'other' segment's Q2 results, and asked about Peabody's exploration of rare earth elements in its PRB reserves.

Answer

EVP & CFO Mark Spurbeck estimated the Shoal Creek tax credit benefit at over $5 million annually, starting in 2026, and attributed strong Q2 'other' segment results to unexpected asset sales. President and CEO Jim Grech confirmed Peabody is in a second phase of evaluating rare earth elements, with initial data suggesting concentrations are the same or better than regional peers.

Nathan Martin of The Benchmark Company asked for a savings estimate for the Shoal Creek mine from the new production tax credit. He also inquired about the drivers of the Q2 resource management results and, separately, whether Peabody has evaluated its PRB reserves for rare earth elements.

Answer

EVP & CFO Mark Spurbeck estimated the Shoal Creek tax credit benefit at over $5 million annually, starting in 2026, and attributed the strong Q2 resource management results to lumpy and unpredictable asset sales. President and CEO Jim Grech confirmed Peabody is in a second phase of evaluating rare earth elements in the PRB, with initial data suggesting concentrations are comparable to or better than others in the region.

Nathan Martin of The Benchmark Company inquired about the slower restart of the Shoal Creek longwall, its impact on costs, the current netback pricing for High-Vol A coal, the outlook for seaborne thermal volumes for the rest of the year, and the potential business impact of recent executive orders supporting U.S. coal.

Answer

Chief Marketing Officer Malcolm Roberts explained the Shoal Creek restart was delayed to avoid a weak March spot market. CFO Mark Spurbeck clarified this slightly impaired Q1 costs. Roberts also detailed the netback calculation for High-Vol A coal. Spurbeck explained that second-half seaborne thermal volumes will be lower due to the Wambo mine coming offline. President and CEO Jim Grech highlighted that new policies halting coal plant closures are driving interest in long-term supply contracts.

Nathan Martin asked for an update on the remaining regulatory approvals for the Anglo American acquisition, the company's thinking on the financing mix between debt and minority interest sales, and the likelihood of issuing common equity. He also questioned the potential impact of China's new tariff on U.S. coal imports on Peabody's business and the broader seaborne markets.

Answer

President and CEO Jim Grech stated that key regulatory approvals are progressing well and expected to be cleared by early Q2. CFO Mark Spurbeck reiterated the financing plan of primarily debt and potential minority stake sales, noting that issuing common equity is the last priority given the current share price. CMO Malcolm Roberts explained that the China tariff negatively impacts the competitiveness of U.S. coal, specifically affecting 600,000 tonnes from Shoal Creek, and will likely cause trade flows to readjust.

Nathan Martin of The Benchmark Company asked for details on the $50 million increase in 2024 CapEx, the potential for Wambo open-cut tonnage to offset underground declines, the long-term reliability of the Shoal Creek lock repair, and the expected volume and accounting treatment for Centurion development coal.

Answer

CFO Mark Spurbeck detailed the CapEx increase as $10 million in sustaining capital and $40 million in growth, with $30 million for accelerated Centurion development. He confirmed Wambo open-cut production is expected to increase year-over-year, partially offsetting the underground decline. CEO Jim Grech assured that permanent repairs at the Shoal Creek lock are being coordinated to have negligible future impact on shipments. CMO Malcolm Roberts estimated Centurion could sell around 480,000 tonnes in 2025, which would be recognized as revenue.

Nathan Martin asked about the factors influencing Alliance Resource Partners' 2026 price per ton guidance, specifically what could lead to the high or low end of the range, and the portion of tons still exposed to market fluctuations. He also inquired about the potential for Alliance to increase coal production given sustained thermal coal demand and longer-duration utility contracts, including current production capacity and required investment. Finally, he asked about modeling future equity method investment income and potential new investment opportunities.

Answer

Joseph W. Craft III, Chairman, President, and CEO, explained that most remaining uncommitted tons are in the Illinois Basin (Gibson South and Hamilton), with some at MC Mining. Upside potential for Illinois Basin pricing exists due to customer optionality and recent market conditions (Arctic air, rising natural gas prices). Appalachia tons are largely sold out. He stated there are no current plans to add new production units, with any incremental demand likely met by increased overtime and improved productivity, particularly in the Illinois Basin through equipment investments like the Infinitum motor technology. Cary P. Marshall, SVP and CFO, advised modeling equity investment income, excluding fair value adjustments, at approximately $3 million per quarter going forward. Mr. Craft added that Alliance is actively evaluating other opportunities to invest in existing coal-fired generation.

Nathan Martin asked about the factors influencing Alliance Resource Partners' 2026 coal price guidance, the portion of tons still exposed to market fluctuations, and the potential for increasing production with associated investment. He also inquired about modeling equity method investment income and future investment opportunities.

Answer

Joseph W. Craft III, Chairman, President, and CEO, explained that most remaining uncommitted tons are in the Illinois Basin, with potential upside due to customer optionality and rising natural gas prices. He noted no plans to add new production units, focusing instead on productivity improvements and overtime. Cary P. Marshall, SVP and CFO, suggested modeling equity investment income at a lower run rate of approximately $3 million per quarter, excluding fair value adjustments. Mr. Craft added that the company is actively evaluating other investment opportunities in existing coal-fired generation.

Nathan Martin inquired about the typical duration and pricing structures of Alliance Resource Partners' domestic coal supply contracts, noting increased customer engagement and demand visibility. He also asked about the relevance of coal price indices and the outlook for 2026 pricing given recent contract additions and Department of Energy investments in coal-fired plants.

Answer

Chairman, President, and CEO Joe Craft stated that most new domestic contracts are for two to three years, primarily with fixed pricing and some escalation in later years, noting that current market pricing is trending higher than some indices. Craft explained that while 2026 overall pricing might see a slight decline due to expiring Appalachia contracts, improved geology and cost reductions at Tunnel Ridge are expected to maintain margins. He also highlighted robust utility and DOE engagement in preserving coal-fired plants, with significant interest in available grants and loans to extend plant lives and increase future coal demand. SVP and CFO Cary Marshall mentioned that detailed 2026 volume guidance would be provided in February.

Nathan Martin asked about the increasing domestic customer engagement, seeking details on typical contract lengths and pricing structures (fixed vs. variable index). He also inquired about the relevant coal price indexes and the impact of the 2026 pricing guidance, particularly concerning Appalachia contracts and Tunnel Ridge's performance. Finally, he sought Joe Craft's thoughts on the Department of Energy's investments in coal-fired plants and their effect on Alliance Resource Partners' business and customers.

Answer

Chairman, President, and CEO Joe Craft explained that most customers are seeking two to three-year fixed-price contracts, often with escalation clauses and some tariff protection. He noted that while indexes are generally accurate, some current pricing is trending higher. For 2026, he anticipates overall pricing to be down due to Appalachia contracts rolling off, but expects cost improvements at Tunnel Ridge to help maintain margins. SVP and CFO Cary Marshall added that detailed 2026 volume guidance will be provided in February. Joe Craft also highlighted robust utility and DOE engagement regarding coal plant support, with significant interest in the $625 million in available funds, potentially leading to increased demand for coal in the future.

Inquired about the recent $25M investment in a PJM power plant, the rationale behind the distribution cut despite a positive outlook, potential future investment areas, and the impacts of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' on ARLP and its customers.

Answer

The company explained the PJM investment is an accretive LP stake with potential for similar deals. The distribution cut aligns payouts with sustainable margins and a new tax law, providing flexibility for growth. Investment focus is on minerals, data center infrastructure, and strategic power plants. The new bill supports customers in keeping plants open, stabilizing demand, and ARLP benefits from a met coal tax credit.

Nathan Martin of The Benchmark Company LLC inquired about the specifics of the $25 million investment in the Gavin power plant, the rationale for the distribution cut amid a strong outlook, and the intended use of the resulting cash savings. He also asked about future growth opportunities and the potential impact of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' on ARLP and its customers.

Answer

Joseph Craft, Chairman, CEO, and President, explained that the Gavin plant investment was made through a private equity fund and is expected to be immediately accretive, with similar opportunities likely to arise. He clarified the distribution was adjusted from a 2022 crisis-era high to a level more sustainable with normalized margins, a decision aided by new tax laws that improve after-tax returns for unitholders. The freed cash will strengthen the balance sheet for growth in minerals, data center infrastructure, and other potential plant investments. Craft also noted the new legislation supports coal plant longevity and drives stable, growing demand from customers.

Nathan Martin inquired about customer reactions to recent executive orders supporting coal plants, the potential for new capital spending to increase thermal coal production, the specific trade policies impacting ARLP's business, and the cost outlook for the Appalachian segment.

Answer

Joseph Craft, Chairman, President and CEO, explained that utility customers are embracing extensions for coal plant life due to rising electricity demand from data centers. He does not foresee new industry capital for more coal production but expects utilities to invest in existing plant efficiency. Craft identified tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper as the primary trade policy impacts factored into current guidance. He also expressed confidence in meeting the full-year cost targets for Appalachia, anticipating significant improvement in the second half of 2025 as mining moves to more favorable conditions at Tunnel Ridge.

Nathan Martin inquired about customer reactions to recent executive orders supporting coal, the potential for new capital spending to increase thermal coal production, the specific trade policies impacting ARLP's business, and the cost outlook for the Appalachian segment.

Answer

Chairman, President and CEO Joseph Craft stated that utility customers are embracing the two-year MATS rule extension due to surging electricity demand from data centers. He does not anticipate new industry investment to bring more coal online, but expects utilities to invest in their existing fleets. Craft identified tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper as the primary policy impacts currently factored into guidance. He also expressed confidence in meeting the full-year cost guidance for Appalachia, with significant improvements expected in the second half of 2025 as mining conditions at Tunnel Ridge improve, which should help preserve margins into 2026.

Nathan Martin of The Benchmark Company, LLC inquired about the potential impact of new tariffs on ARLP's business, the status of 2025 domestic coal commitments and the company's confidence in reaching its 30 million-ton goal, pricing for tons currently under negotiation, and the dynamics of the export market, including netbacks at current API 2 prices.

Answer

Joseph Craft, Chairman, President, and CEO, stated that the impact from potential tariffs is expected to be limited as they are viewed as negotiating tactics and ARLP's business is primarily domestic. He expressed confidence in achieving 2025 sales targets, noting that guidance is conservative and supported by ongoing customer conversations and lower utility inventories. Mr. Craft confirmed that pricing for tons under negotiation is already factored into the 2025 guidance. Regarding exports, the main variable is the pricing for about 600,000 tons of high-sulfur coal, which currently favors the domestic market. Cary Marshall, SVP & CFO, provided the 2024 sales breakdown of approximately 27.6 million domestic tons and 5.6 million export tons.

Nathan Martin of The Benchmark Company asked about the potential impact of new tariffs on ARLP's business, the status of 2025 domestic coal commitments, pricing for tons currently under negotiation, and export market netbacks at current API 2 prices.

Answer

Chairman, President and CEO Joseph Craft responded that he believes the tariff situation is more for negotiation and expects limited impact on ARLP's largely domestic business. He expressed confidence in reaching domestic sales targets, noting that ongoing negotiations are already factored into 2025 guidance. Craft also mentioned that high-sulfur export pricing remains below domestic alternatives, but the company has flexibility. He stated 2024 shipments were approximately 27.6 million tons domestically and 5.6 million tons for export.

Nathan Martin asked about the specific criteria Ramaco needs to see from the pilot plant process and customer conversations to confidently move forward with full commercialization, and if a decision is still expected by the end of next year. He also inquired about the metallurgical coal Q4 sales guidance, where Ramaco expects to land within the range, and the contributing factors.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Randy Atkins outlined the need for customer acceptance, appropriate pricing, and long-term contracts for conservative financing, emphasizing a disciplined approach. EVP for Critical Mineral Operations Mike Woloschuk added that piloting provides confidence in the flow sheet and the ability to produce on-spec product. CFO Jeremy Sussman stated that met coal production is rationalized to avoid selling at a loss, with the ability to hit the high end of the sales range depending on market conditions. Randy Atkins noted that domestic steel companies often underbuy and play catch-up in Q4, especially with supply rationalization.

Nathan Martin asked what Ramaco Resources needs to see from the pilot plant process and customer conversations to move forward with full commercialization, and if that decision is still expected by the end of next year. He also inquired about the met coal sales guidance for Q4 and where the company expects to end up within that range.

Answer

Randy Atkins, Chairman and CEO, emphasized the need for customer acceptance, appropriate pricing, and long-term contracts to establish a basis for conservative financing and disciplined development. Mike Woloschuk, EVP for Critical Mineral Operations, added that the pilot plant's purpose is technical validation and producing on-spec product. Regarding met coal, Jeremy Sussman, CFO, noted that while mines are running well, production is rationalized due to spot market losses, and Randy Atkins added that domestic steel companies often play catch-up in Q4, influencing sales.

Nathan Martin of The Benchmark Company LLC inquired about the operational and strategic outlook for Ramaco Resources, focusing on both its metallurgical coal and rare earth businesses. He asked about the impact of production adjustments on met coal quality mix, the expected domestic versus export sales ratio for the second half of 2025, and the potential financial savings from the new production tax credit. Shifting to the Brook Mine, Martin questioned the company's discussions with the U.S. administration regarding price support for critical minerals and sought clarity on the price deck assumptions in the Preliminary Economic Analysis (PEA), particularly for scandium, and how Ramaco plans to balance future supply with market demand.

Answer

EVP & CCO Jason Fannin and CFO Jeremy Sussman addressed the met coal questions, stating there would be no impact on quality mix and the sales mix would be roughly two-thirds seaborne. Sussman estimated the tax credit could add around $15 million to annual EBITDA. On the rare earths front, Chairman & CEO Randall Atkins confirmed ongoing discussions with the government, emphasizing the need for support against Chinese market manipulation. EVP of Critical Minerals Operations Mike Woloschuk explained that scandium demand is expected to grow significantly with a reliable Western supply. Atkins and Sussman defended the PEA's price deck, noting it reflects long-term Western pricing, historical highs, and direct interest from potential customers, including a major defense contractor.

Nathan Martin from The Benchmark Company asked for details on the $5 million reduction in 2025 CapEx guidance, seeking a breakdown between sustaining and growth capital, including spending at the Brook Mine. He also inquired if the Q2 realized price could remain flat or increase due to a higher mix of domestic sales. Furthermore, he asked about the company's exposure to CFR versus FOB pricing and the potential benefits from the executive order aiming to declare metallurgical coal a critical mineral.

Answer

EVP Jeremy Sussman explained the CapEx reduction was due to deferring a growth project at the Berwind Mine. He broke down the new guidance into roughly $10/ton of maintenance CapEx and about $15 million in growth CapEx, with approximately $5 million of that allocated to the rare earth project. While acknowledging an increased mix of higher-priced domestic tons in Q2, Mr. Sussman noted that the majority of sales are still exposed to weaker export index pricing, making it difficult to overcome the downward pressure. Chairman and CEO Randall Atkins confirmed the company has no CFR pricing exposure and stated that designating met coal as a critical mineral is meaningful for future permitting, though direct federal funding is not expected.

Nathan Martin of The Benchmark Company sought clarification on cost savings from the Maben prep plant, questioning the difference between the realized $20 per ton savings and a previously mentioned $40 per ton figure. He also asked about the price assumptions underlying the full-year cost guidance and questioned how management prioritizes capital allocation between internal growth, M&A, shareholder returns, and balance sheet protection amid market weakness.

Answer

EVP for Mine Planning and Development, Christopher Blanchard, clarified that the initial $40 per ton savings was on raw coal trucking, and the current net savings is $20 per ton because clean coal is still being trucked; the remaining $20 savings will be realized upon completion of an on-site rail loadout. Executive Jeremy Sussman stated the company uses the forward curve for price planning in its guidance. Chairman and CEO Randall Atkins outlined the capital allocation strategy, emphasizing a focus on opportunistic asset acquisitions over corporate M&A, a modest and flexible growth CapEx plan, and a disciplined, phased approach to funding the rare earth project, which includes a $6 million grant recommendation from Wyoming.

Nathan Martin from B. Riley Securities inquired about the current weakness in the metallurgical coal market, asking for a representative netback calculation for high-vol products and details on variable costs. He also questioned Ramaco's confidence in maintaining a sub-$100 cost per ton run rate into 2025 and asked what factors would determine whether the company hits the low or high end of its Q4 shipment guidance.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Jason Fannin provided a netback estimate of around $130 and highlighted the pricing advantages of Ramaco's low-sulfur products. Chairman and CEO Randall Atkins confirmed the company's confidence in maintaining sub-$100 costs in 2025, citing operational discipline and growth projects. Executive Jeremy Sussman explained that reaching the high end of Q4 shipment guidance depends on avoiding tonnage slippage into 2025, while the low end assumes a reasonable amount of carryover.

Nathan Martin inquired about the met coal price assumption in the updated full-year cost guidance, the potential impact of trade tensions with India and Brazil, the volume of domestic tons contracted for 2025, whether Alpha has gained market share from struggling peers, the spending and timeline for the DTA port project, and the potential impact of the Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger.

Answer

CEO Andy Eidson stated the guidance assumes met prices hold flat with current levels and confirmed the DTA project spending and timeline (completion ~2028) are unchanged. Regarding the rail merger, Eidson noted their strong relationship with Norfolk Southern makes it hard to see service improving, but acknowledged the uncertainty. EVP & CCO Daniel Horn reported no negative feedback from customers in India or Brazil, confirmed about 3.5 million domestic tons are contracted for 2025, and noted limited domestic spot activity or substitution opportunities. Horn also added that since Alpha's network is east of the Mississippi, they hope for minimal impact from the merger.

Nathan Martin of The Benchmark Company inquired about the details of the full-year shipment guidance reduction, specifically asking if the cuts were concentrated in export or domestic volumes and how the idling of two mines would impact the company's quality mix. He also asked for commentary on potential price discounting against indices in the weak market and sought an update on the M&A landscape.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Dan Horn clarified that the production cuts would affect export tons, specifically high-vol coal, and that domestic customer commitments would be fulfilled. He acknowledged that discounting against indices occurs in weak markets but noted it is not universal, citing a recent deal priced at a premium. CEO Andy Eidson explained that while the company is open to M&A, the current focus remains on internal value creation, like the Kingston Wildcat project, as it is difficult to find accretive deals that would not add risk in the current environment.

Nathan Martin of The Benchmark Company inquired about the expected quarterly sales cadence for 2025, the specific drivers behind the increased cost guidance, details on a recent export pricing deal, and the potential impact of new tariffs on domestic demand.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Daniel Horn stated that domestic shipments should be ratable, while export shipments will likely be weighted to the second half of the year. He also clarified that recently priced export tons were likely High-Vol quality. CEO Charles Eidson explained that the cost guidance increase was a 'fudge factor' to provide a buffer against Q1 weather impacts and that it was difficult to break down the specific contributors. Regarding tariffs, Daniel Horn noted that while Alpha can shift tons between domestic and export markets, a significant increase in domestic demand would require new blast furnace production, which he does not currently foresee.

Nathan Martin from The Benchmark Company inquired about the met coal price assumptions embedded in the 2025 cost guidance. He also asked for clarity on the implied Q4 2024 CapEx and cost per ton outlook, and whether the 2025 shipment guidance includes any further production rationalizations beyond the Checkmate mine.

Answer

CEO Charles Eidson responded that the 2025 cost guidance assumes market conditions similar to the current environment, without specifying a price. He noted that Q4 CapEx and costs should fall within the reiterated full-year guidance ranges, though timing could shift some CapEx into 2025 and holiday schedules typically pressure Q4 costs. Eidson confirmed no other material production rationalizations are currently assumed in the 2025 guidance besides the idling of the Checkmate mine.

Nathan Martin of The Benchmark Company, LLC asked for the specific met coal price assumption used in the updated cash cost guidance. He also questioned the rationale for increasing full-year production and sales guidance in a weak market and sought management's view on the Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger.

Answer

CFO Dale Boyles indicated the new cost guidance assumes a met coal price in the $175 to $200 per ton range. CEO Walter Scheller explained the guidance increase is driven by strong operational performance, as high volume is key to maintaining a low cost structure, and noted they have high contracted volumes to fulfill. Regarding the rail merger, Scheller expressed minimal concern, citing their efficient 'closed loop' rail system and the new barge load-out as a logistical alternative.

Nathan Martin from The Benchmark Company asked for clarification on the pricing index for high-vol A coal, whether published U.S. prices reflect the market, the cost impact of initial Blue Creek shipments, and potential levers to reduce CapEx.

Answer

CEO Walter Scheller confirmed that high-vol A is priced off the Platts U.S. low-vol index and that published prices are reflective of the market. CFO Dale Boyles noted that initial Blue Creek shipments will not have a dramatic cost impact this year. Regarding CapEx, Scheller mentioned squeezing existing operations, while Boyles highlighted the company's strong liquidity of over $500 million in cash as a significant buffer.

Nathan Martin of The Benchmark Company questioned the specific met coal price assumption used in the cash cost guidance, the inventory level target for year-end 2025, the progress on Blue Creek's overland belt and rail logistics, and the reason for highlighting language about strategic growth opportunities in the press release.

Answer

CFO Dale Boyles stated the cash cost guidance assumes a PLV price of $200 per ton for the year and explained that the capital allocation language in the press release is not new and has been included for several years. CEO Walter Scheller indicated a goal to reduce inventory levels in the second half of the year and confirmed that the Blue Creek project, including the overland belt and rail partnerships, is progressing on time and on budget.

Nathan Martin asked how the company's patient sales approach might impact Q4 shipment volumes and sought clarification on the full-year sales guidance. He also requested a detailed walkthrough of the calculation for the 93% gross price realization and asked how the cost per ton guidance might adjust given the current lower price environment.

Answer

CEO Walter Scheller stated he expects to land in the middle of the full-year guidance range for sales. He also clarified that price realization calculations for a quarter are based on the prior three months' pricing (e.g., Q4 is based on Sep/Oct/Nov prices). CFO Dale Boyles added that if lower prices persist, costs should trend toward the lower end of the guidance range, though this is dependent on sales volumes.

Nathan Martin from The Benchmark Company LLC asked for contingency plans if the Haverhill contract is not renewed, the potential impact on North American coke supply-demand, the cause of weakness at the CMT logistics terminal, and details on the amended revolver's capacity for funding the Phoenix acquisition and the GPI project.

Answer

CEO Katherine Gates stated that while in active talks with Cliffs, SunCoke could pivot to increase profitable foundry coke sales or sell blast coke to other customers, noting that shifts in coke sourcing could create new opportunities. VP of Finance Shantanu Agrawal clarified that the revolver draw for Phoenix will be lower than expected (~$200-210M), leaving ample liquidity, and that the GPI project would require separate financing. Management also reaffirmed logistics guidance, expecting a rebound in H2.

Nathan Martin asked for clarification on the potential market impact if a key customer reduces third-party coke purchases, the reasons for logistics weakness at the CMT terminal, the financing for the Phoenix acquisition, and any updates on the GPI project.

Answer

President and CEO Katherine Gates stated that if a major customer shifts its sourcing, SunCoke would pursue that customer's former suppliers and also has profitable avenues in foundry coke and other blast coke markets. VP of Finance & Treasurer, Shantanu Agrawal, noted a permanent blast furnace shutdown would be disruptive, but maintained production would not alter overall coke demand. Gates attributed logistics weakness to tepid export coal markets but reaffirmed guidance based on a July rebound. Agrawal confirmed the Phoenix acquisition would be funded with less debt than anticipated, leaving revolver capacity, and that the GPI project would require separate financing. Gates confirmed active GPI discussions with U.S. Steel but had no new details.

Nathan Martin from The Benchmark Company LLC asked for SunCoke's strategy to replace Haverhill's production volume if the contract with Cliffs is not renewed and questioned the potential impact on the North American coke market. He also inquired about the specific cause of weakness at the CMT logistics terminal, export coal demand, the amended credit facility's capacity for financing Phoenix and the GPI project, and sought an update on the GPI project discussions.

Answer

President & CEO Katherine Gates stated that if the Cliffs contract is not renewed, SunCoke would pivot to other profitable avenues, such as increasing foundry coke sales or selling blast coke to other customers, noting that market dynamics could create new opportunities. Shantanu Agrawal, VP - Finance & Treasurer, added that a permanent blast furnace shutdown by Cliffs would disrupt the market. Ms. Gates attributed CMT weakness to tepid export coal markets but reaffirmed logistics guidance based on a July rebound. Mr. Agrawal confirmed the amended revolver has sufficient capacity for the Phoenix acquisition (~$200-210M draw) and that the GPI project would require separate financing. Ms. Gates noted active GPI discussions with U.S. Steel are ongoing with no new updates.

Nathan Martin from The Benchmark Company LLC asked for strategies to secure a new long-term contract for Haverhill production if the Cliffs contract is not renewed, and the potential market impact. He also questioned the cause of weakness at the CMT logistics terminal, the outlook for export coal, the updated revolver's capacity for financing the Phoenix acquisition and the GPI project, and the status of GPI discussions.

Answer

President & CEO Katherine Gates stated that if the Cliffs contract is not renewed, SunCoke would pursue other profitable avenues, such as expanding foundry coke sales or selling blast coke to other customers, potentially those displaced by market shifts. She confirmed logistics guidance is reaffirmed despite Q2 weakness at CMT, as volumes recovered in July. Shantanu Agrawal, VP - Finance & Treasurer, clarified that the revolver borrowing for the Phoenix acquisition will be around $200-$210M, leaving sufficient capacity, and that the GPI project would require separate financing. Katherine Gates concluded that discussions on the GPI project with U.S. Steel are active but had no further updates.

Nathan Martin from Benchmark Company asked for reasons behind the low Q1 capital expenditures relative to the full-year guidance and which projects might be deferred. He also sought an update on the foundry and export coke markets and questioned why Q1 Domestic Coke EBITDA per ton exceeded the full-year guidance range.

Answer

President and CEO Katherine Gates stated that the lower CapEx spend is a cautious measure due to market uncertainty, involving deferrals of non-immediate projects like some maintenance, but confirmed the KRT project remains on track. She described the coke market as challenging but noted the company's decision to sell out its spot volumes early was sound. Executive Shantanu Agrawal explained that the higher Q1 EBITDA per ton was a timing issue, with lower-margin sales expected later in the year, and confirmed the lower Q1 Haverhill production was planned.

Nathan Martin inquired about the drivers for the 2025 domestic coke EBITDA per ton decline, the expected quarterly cadence of margins, the new FOB New Orleans price adjustment at CMT, the lower 2025 CapEx guidance, and the status of the Granite City GPI project amid the U.S. Steel acquisition delays.

Answer

Executive Shantanu Agrawal attributed the domestic coke margin decline primarily to lower economics at Granite City and the shift of Haverhill tons to the spot market, expecting a slight margin decline in the second half of 2025. CFO Mark Marinko noted the CMT index change was a customer request for better market alignment. President and CEO Katherine Gates explained that 2025 CapEx is lower due to the completion of major projects but the typical run-rate remains higher. She also reaffirmed the strong fundamentals of the GPI project, stating its value proposition is independent of the U.S. Steel transaction's outcome.

Nathan Martin sought clarification on the impact of idling surface operations at the Logan complex on its four underground mines. He also asked for an update on the status of transportation logistics and shipment catch-ups following recent weather-related disruptions.

Answer

CEO Douglas Thompson clarified that idling the Logan surface operations will not hinder the four underground mines, which will continue to operate. He noted that while U.S. rail disruptions were recovered fairly quickly, the Australian port system is still catching up from weather delays, which may take until the end of June to fully resolve. A minor mechanical delay also caused one shipment to slip out of the quarter.

Nathan Martin from The Benchmark Company sought clarification on whether Logan's underground mines would continue operating despite the surface operations being idled and asked for an update on recent transportation and logistics challenges.

Answer

CEO Douglas Thompson confirmed that the four underground mines at the Logan complex will continue to operate normally. He explained that weather-related rail disruptions in the U.S. were resolved quickly, while the Australian port system is still recovering from weather delays, which impacts co-shipping. A minor, unrelated mechanical issue at a port also caused one shipment to slip into the next quarter.

Nathan Martin from The Benchmark Company asked about the repeatability of the low Q2 cost per tonne at Curragh and inquired when the elevated inventories would be shipped, potentially boosting sales volumes in the second half of the year.

Answer

CEO Douglas Thompson described the cost reduction as a permanent step-change resulting from their strategic plan, and that similar cost performance is repeatable with sustained production. He also noted a future cost benefit post-2026 from a royalty drop-off. Thompson confirmed that inventories built due to weather and rail outages would be sold during Q3.

Nathan Martin of The Benchmark Company inquired about the quality mix and price capture rate for the coking coal segment, the breakdown of committed high CV thermal tons, the business impact of Chinese tariffs on U.S. coal, and the assumed API2 price within the 2025 guidance.

Answer

Robert Braithwaite, SVP of Marketing and Sales, provided a detailed breakdown of the metallurgical coal mix (Low-Vol, High-Vol A, High-Vol B) and the high CV thermal contracts, including volumes linked to API2 and power netbacks. On the topic of Chinese tariffs, Braithwaite, CEO Paul Lang, and executive Deck Slone characterized the situation as a short-term disruption, expressing confidence in their ability to redirect volumes to other markets like India and meet strengthening domestic demand. Braithwaite and Slone clarified that the guidance assumes an API2 price around $110 and that the provided price range of $61-$63 per ton is comfortable across various scenarios.

Nathan Martin of The Benchmark Company inquired about the coking coal segment's quality mix and price realization, the breakdown of committed high CV thermal tons, the business impact of Chinese tariffs on U.S. coal, and the underlying price assumptions in the 2025 guidance.

Answer

SVP of Marketing and Sales Robert Braithwaite provided a detailed breakdown of the metallurgical coal mix (Low-Vol, High-Vol A, High-Vol B) and the high CV thermal contracts, noting tons linked to API 2 and power netbacks. On the China tariff, Braithwaite, CEO Paul Lang, and Executive Deck Slone characterized it as a short-term disruption, expecting trade flows to realign as they have in the past. Braithwaite also confirmed the guidance assumes a ~$110 API2 price and that power netbacks see uplift when PJM West prices exceed $40-$42.

Followed up on netbacks, asked about Q4 met coal shipment expectations given Q3 challenges and other headwinds, and inquired about the strategic role of the thermal assets post-merger with CONSOL.

Answer

Q3 netbacks were light due to pricing from Q2 shipments in a declining market and the convergence of premium low-vol and HVA pricing. The company is not having to discount products to move them. For Q4, they suggest starting with a similar volume to Q3, as they will be cautious with the longwall start-ups and won't push coal into a weak market. Post-merger, West Elk is a clear strategic fit with its high-quality seaborne thermal coal. The PRB is a tougher fit, and they are open to alternatives for a "clean exit" if the value is right.

The analyst asked about the feasibility of meeting the second-half coking coal shipment guidance, the reliability of the logistics chain, the cadence of shipments, details on the severance tax rebate, and the reason for the reduced CapEx guidance.

Answer

Management is confident in meeting the H2 shipment guidance due to strong production, inventory build, and reliable logistics, targeting a steady 2.4M tons/quarter. The severance rebate will provide smaller, additional benefits in the coming years. The CapEx reduction is a measure to conserve cash in response to weaker first-half results.

Inquired about the confidence in achieving full-year thermal shipment guidance amid market weakness, the production outlook for the Leer mine after a weak Q1, the expected met segment cost per ton for Q2, and the market dynamics around coking coal mine idling and marginal production costs.

Answer

The company is confident in its thermal guidance, citing the marketing team's ability to roll over and create value from deferred tons. Leer's Q1 production was impacted by a one-time issue and is expected to return to normal run rates. Q2 met costs are expected to improve into the mid-$80s range. Executives noted that current met coal prices are pressuring high-cost producers, which they see as a healthy market dynamic.

Sought clarification on whether the 10 million ton met coal target includes byproduct tons, asked about the wide price spread between US and Australian coals, and questioned the strategy behind building cash in Q4 versus share repurchases.

Answer

The 10 million ton target is for metallurgical coal only and excludes thermal byproducts. The wide price spread is due to constrained Australian supply and arbitrage opportunities that Arch is capitalizing on. The Q4 cash build was a strategic decision to have 'dry powder' for market pullbacks, based on shareholder feedback, and they may need to refresh the buyback authorization soon.

Inquired about the potential size of the Key Bridge insurance settlement, the API2 price assumption in the updated guidance, and the feasibility of reaching the high end of the full-year sales guidance given the current inventory levels.

Answer

A business interruption claim of over $60 million was submitted for the Key Bridge collapse, with a settlement hoped for by year-end. The Q4 guidance assumes a $115 API2 price. Reaching the high end of the sales guidance is considered feasible, as the inventory build is a timing issue and Q4 production is expected to be strong with no planned longwall moves.

Analyst asked about the strong Q1 pricing, the rationale for maintaining full-year price guidance despite higher transport costs, the pace of share buybacks, and contingency plans for a delayed Baltimore port reopening.

Answer

Executives attributed strong Q1 pricing to favorable netbacks, API 2 prices, and a better sales mix. They are maintaining full-year price guidance by offsetting the ~$10/ton extra transport cost for diverted volumes with stronger market pricing. Share buybacks exceeded the 75% of free cash flow target due to the attractive return and will continue to be prioritized when the stock is undervalued. Contingency plans for a delayed port reopening include continued use of the alternate port and making up lost volume in July.

Inquired about the 2025 contracted sales book, the cost and sales outlook for the Itmann mine, and the expected quarterly cadence of PAMC shipments for 2024 given planned longwall moves.

Answer

For 2025, 13 million tons are contracted, with over 8 million domestic; average pricing is in the mid-$60s assuming a $105 API2 price. Itmann's high initial costs are due to mine development and are expected to improve with increased volume. The Itmann sales guidance of 600k-800k tons includes potential third-party sales, with an expected average price of $170-$180/ton. Due to three longwall moves in Q1 2024, PAMC production will be lower, making Q2 and Q4 the stronger quarters of the year.