Nathaniel Feather

Nathan Feather of Morgan Stanley asked for the primary drivers behind the strong U.S. GMV growth relative to international markets and how to think about its persistence. He also requested more detail on where the company plans to reinvest its year-to-date outperformance.

Answer

President & CEO Jamie Iannone attributed the U.S. strength to a more favorable macro environment and robust consumer demand, whereas Europe remains challenging. He stated that planned reinvestments will target strategic initiatives like U.S. pre-loved fashion, C2C experience enhancements in the UK and Germany, the burgeoning eBay Live platform, and continued innovation in AI.

Nathaniel Feather of Morgan Stanley inquired about the scale of eBay's exposure to China-based exporters, particularly on the China-to-U.S. trade route, and the potential for demand substitution.

Answer

CEO Jamie Iannone quantified the exposure, stating the Greater China to U.S. corridor represents about 5% of total GMV, with China overall being under 10%. He clarified that three-quarters of this volume is forward-deployed and already subject to tariffs. For the remainder, about half utilize eBay's SpeedPak shipping solution, which simplifies customs and tariff complexity for sellers and provides price transparency for buyers.

Nathaniel Feather asked about the potential to roll out successful features from the U.K. C2C initiative, such as managed shipping, to other geographic markets more broadly.

Answer

CEO Jamie Iannone responded that while features like 'magical listing' have been rolled out globally with great success, the C2C approach is being perfected in the U.K. first. He emphasized that shipping dynamics are unique to each market, making the U.K. particularly attractive for a managed shipping program. The current focus is on optimizing the U.K. experience, which is already driving double-digit C2C GMV growth improvement, before considering broader expansion.

Nathaniel Feather sought to understand the primary drivers behind management's conviction for a return to sustainable GMV growth in 2025. He also asked about the economics of U.K. managed shipping compared to eBay International Shipping (EIS).

Answer

CEO Jamie Iannone attributed his confidence in 2025 GMV growth to the sustained momentum in focus categories (5% growth), stabilization in core categories, and the significant TAM expansion from geo-specific initiatives like the U.K. C2C launch. CFO Steve Priest clarified that U.K. managed shipping, like EIS, is recognized on a gross revenue basis and is accretive to operating income dollars. However, its domestic nature results in lower margins, making it more dilutive to the operating margin rate than EIS.

Nathaniel Feather inquired about the SG&A deleverage, seeking clarification on the magnitude of temporary costs attributed to fulfillment center changes versus hardgoods processing, and the expected leverage path into the second half of the year.

Answer

CEO Sumit Singh clarified that Chewy expects SG&A leverage in 2025, primarily in the back half, with 60% of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion from gross margin and 40% from OpEx leverage. He explained that the Houston fulfillment center, launched in April, requires about six months to ramp up and deliver leverage, which is expected in the second half. Singh also noted temporary costs of $3 million to $5 million for higher inbound hardgoods processing to mitigate tariffs and ensure inventory, plus $2 million to $3 million for higher wages and benefits, all of which are expected to moderate in the back half.

Nathaniel Jay Feather inquired about the magnitude of temporary costs contributing to SG&A deleverage, asking for a breakdown between fulfillment center changes and hardgoods processing costs. He also sought clarification on the expected SG&A leverage path for the second half of the year.

Answer

Sumit Singh, CEO & Director, Chewy, reiterated expectations for SG&A leverage in 2025, primarily in the back half, explaining that the Houston fulfillment center requires about six months to ramp up for leverage. He detailed temporary costs, including $3M-$5M for incremental hardgoods inventory and $2M-$3M for higher wages and benefits, noting these are opportunistic investments to improve share position.

Nathan Feather inquired about the SG&A deleverage, specifically the magnitude of temporary costs, how much is attributable to fulfillment center changes versus hardgoods processing costs, and the expected leverage path into the second half of the year.

Answer

CEO Sumit Singh clarified that Chewy expects SG&A leverage in 2025, primarily in the back half. He noted that the Houston Gen 2 facility, launched in April, takes about six months to ramp up and deliver leverage. He also mentioned variable cost elements tied to unit growth and one-time costs of approximately $3 million-$5 million for higher inbound hardgoods processing to mitigate tariffs, and $2 million-$3 million for higher wages and benefits, expecting SG&A costs to moderate in the second half.

Nathaniel Feather asked for details on the drivers of Chewy's accelerating active customer growth, questioning the balance between broader industry normalization and company-specific initiatives, and inquired about the outlook for customer growth in 2025.

Answer

CEO Sumit Singh attributed the majority of active customer growth to Chewy's internal efforts, including enhanced mobile experiences, assortment expansion, and a powerful marketing and CRM strategy. He noted that while industry trends like pet adoption are improving, Chewy's outperformance is self-driven. For 2025, Singh stated the plan is to continue the successful 2024 playbook, focusing on full-funnel marketing to expanded audiences and leveraging improved customer segmentation to boost repeat purchases and Autoship sign-ups.

Nathan Feather from Morgan Stanley asked about the adoption rates of the Chewy Plus membership program since it exited the beta phase and its impact on customer unit economics and share of wallet.

Answer

CEO Sumit Singh stated that since its full launch, Chewy Plus has shown strong membership growth and positive feedback, with members exhibiting higher session frequency, more orders, and greater cross-category purchasing. He confirmed that these members are driving incremental contribution profit. CFO David Reeder added that Chewy Plus complements the successful Autoship program within the company's broader loyalty ecosystem.

Nathan Feather of Morgan Stanley asked about the Chewy Plus membership program, which recently exited its beta phase, inquiring about adoption rates and the impact on customer unit economics and share of wallet.

Answer

CEO Sumit Singh reported that Chewy Plus is showing strong membership growth and positive feedback, with members exhibiting higher session frequency, more orders, and greater cross-category purchasing. He confirmed these members are driving incremental contribution profit. CFO David Reeder contextualized this within Chewy's broader loyalty ecosystem, which includes Autoship, to drive overall customer engagement and reduce churn.

Nathan Feather of Morgan Stanley asked about the Chewy Plus membership program now that it has exited its beta phase, specifically inquiring about adoption rates and the impact on customer unit economics and share of wallet.

Answer

CEO Sumit Singh reported strong membership growth and positive customer feedback since the program's full launch. He noted that Chewy Plus members exhibit higher active sessions, order frequency, and cross-category penetration, leading to incremental contribution profit. CFO David Reeder framed it as a key part of a broader loyalty ecosystem that includes the successful Autoship program.

Nathan Feather of Morgan Stanley asked about the Chewy Plus membership program, which recently exited its beta phase, inquiring about adoption rates and the impact on member unit economics and share of wallet.

Answer

CEO Sumit Singh stated that since its full launch, Chewy Plus has shown strong membership growth and positive customer feedback. He noted that members exhibit higher session frequency, more orders, and greater cross-category purchasing, leading to incremental contribution profit. CFO David Reeder added that this program, along with Autoship, strengthens the overall loyalty ecosystem.

Nathan Feather of Morgan Stanley asked about the Chewy Plus membership program now that it is out of beta, inquiring about adoption rates and the observed changes in unit economics and customer wallet share.

Answer

CEO Sumit Singh stated that since its full launch, Chewy Plus has shown strong membership growth and positive customer feedback. He noted that members exhibit higher active sessions, order frequency, and cross-category penetration compared to non-members, leading to incremental contribution profit. CFO David Reeder added that Chewy Plus is part of a broader loyalty ecosystem, including Autoship, that drives customer engagement and growth.

Nathan Feather from Morgan Stanley asked for an update on the Chewy Plus membership program, specifically regarding adoption rates and the impact on customer unit economics and share of wallet.

Answer

CEO Sumit Singh reported that since its full launch, Chewy Plus has shown strong membership growth and positive engagement, with members exhibiting higher session frequency, more orders, and greater cross-category purchasing. He confirmed these members are driving incremental contribution profit. CFO David Reeder placed this within the broader loyalty ecosystem, which includes the highly successful Autoship program.

Nathan Feather of Morgan Stanley sought clarity on the macro headwinds built into the full-year guidance and asked whether the Community Hub expansion is a continued test or a more accelerated rollout.

Answer

CFO Sarah Oughtred clarified that the primary factor in the second-half outlook is the larger impact from the promotional pullback, with guidance remaining prudently cautious. CEO Trina Spear confirmed an accelerated rollout for Community Hubs, announcing new locations in Houston, New York, and Chicago, driven by strong new customer acquisition (nearly 40%) and positive learnings from existing stores.

Nathaniel Feather asked for more detail on the cohort data, specifically seeking to understand the primary drivers of customer reactivation and whether these reactivated customers exhibit different behaviors compared to continuously active ones.

Answer

CFO Sarah Oughtred attributed the strong reactivation rates to giving healthcare professionals more reasons to return, primarily through great product innovation and ramped-up, full-funnel marketing efforts like the 'Where Do You Wear FIGS' campaign. CEO Trina Spear added that the reactivation trend is a significant sign of the industry emerging from the post-COVID purchasing overhang and returning to a period of demand normalization, suggesting the 12-month active customer window is somewhat arbitrary given the community's strong brand affinity.

Nathaniel Feather asked about the health of the consumer based on Q4 trends and inquired if inventory levels are now normalized and how they will be managed without heavy promotions.

Answer

CFO Sarah Oughtred noted AOV decline was the lowest of the year in Q4, with improving frequency from existing customers. She stated inventory is at a 'better level,' down 35% from its peak, and while some pockets remain, they are buying with more conviction. Inventory growth is expected to moderately exceed revenue growth in 2025.

Nathaniel Feather inquired about the company's strategy for balancing large brand-building events with traditional marketing and whether this would lead to lumpier spending. He also asked about the rationale for a second sample sale and the current level of excess inventory.

Answer

Co-Founder and CEO Trina Spear affirmed a full-funnel marketing approach that remains disciplined yet opportunistic. CFO Sarah Oughtred clarified that the Q3 sample sale was consistent with the prior year's promotional cadence and was extended in an attempt to offset weaker-than-expected results from the back-to-school campaign.

Nathan Feather of Morgan Stanley inquired about the drivers behind the moderation in Daily Active User (DAU) growth and the outlook for the remainder of the year. He also asked for an update on the Chinese market, including product resonance and the potential launch of Duolingo Max features.

Answer

CEO Luis von Ahn attributed the 40% DAU growth, at the lower end of guidance, to a temporary pullback in 'edgy' social media posts following backlash to his AI commentary, which primarily affected young US users. He stated this impact is in the past and no significant change is expected next quarter. Regarding China, von Ahn highlighted it as the fastest-growing market, boosted by a successful partnership with Luckin Coffee. He noted that Duolingo Max is not yet available there due to regulatory requirements for local LLMs, with an uncertain timeline.

Nathan Feather from Morgan Stanley inquired about the drivers behind the moderation in DAU growth, the outlook for user growth, and Duolingo's performance and strategy in the Chinese market, including the potential launch of Duolingo Max features.

Answer

CEO Luis von Ahn attributed the DAU growth moderation primarily to a temporary pullback in 'edgy' social media content in the U.S. following his comments on AI, which caused negative sentiment. He stated the impact is now past. Regarding China, von Ahn described it as the fastest-growing market, highlighting a successful partnership with Luckin Coffee. He noted that Duolingo Max is not yet available there due to regulatory requirements for government approval of local LLMs.

Nathan Feather of Morgan Stanley asked about the company's relative prioritization for new content production, weighing further language courses against deeper content for existing courses and new subjects.

Answer

CEO Luis von Ahn stated that language learning remains the top priority and the majority of effort goes there. He emphasized that content creation is now focused on improving and advancing existing courses using their AI pipeline, rather than adding many new languages where there are diminishing returns. New subjects like math are also receiving significant AI-driven content expansions.

Nathan Feather from Morgan Stanley questioned which internal metrics Bumble is tracking to measure its quality-focused turnaround and asked about the timing and nature of planned reinvestments into the business.

Answer

Founder & CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd stated that the team is obsessively tracking deeper member inputs related to achieving successful matches but is not prepared to share these specific KPIs externally yet. Regarding reinvestments, she emphasized a 'surgical' approach, funding only 'must-have' initiatives for the quality strategy, with some spending occurring near-term and other, larger investments like brand marketing deferred.

Nathaniel Feather questioned what led the product to deviate from its high-quality match foundation and how AI can help create new engagement methods that prioritize quality over quantity.

Answer

Founder and CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd explained that the industry's focus on 'more features equals better outcomes' was a misstep. She argued that the user experience depends on the relevance of profiles surfaced, not the interaction modality like swiping. The future focus is on using AI to improve the core matching algorithm to surface highly relevant profiles, rather than launching numerous new features.

Nathaniel Feather asked for details on the drivers behind the Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin contraction and the expected margin trajectory for the full year 2025.

Answer

CFO Anuradha Subramanian explained that the margin decline is due to the deleveraging impact of lower revenue and deliberate investments in product and technology to reignite engagement. While not providing full-year guidance, she anticipates margins will contract for the year but expects a return to margin expansion once revenue growth resumes, emphasizing continued cost discipline elsewhere.

Nathaniel Feather inquired about any early positive signs ('green shoots') of engagement with Gen Z users and asked about the potential impact of the election cycle on user activity and Q4 guidance.

Answer

CEO Lidiane Jones confirmed positive Gen Z engagement, citing gains in NPS, social media following, and sentiment driven by a renewed focus on organic marketing. Regarding the election, she noted no significant historical impact, and CFO Anu Subramanian added that the Q4 outlook was not materially affected by it and remained consistent with prior guidance.

Nathan Feather asked for the best way for investors to track the company's turnaround and what internal metrics management is monitoring amid accelerated product testing.

Answer

CEO Spencer Rascoff detailed the key internal funnel metrics he tracks daily: 1) New Registrations, 2) MAU/DAU (audience), 3) Four-way chats, and 4) Contact exchanges. He stated that while these metrics are still down year-over-year, the rate of decline has significantly improved in recent months. Rascoff also acknowledged the need for more investor visibility and is exploring which metrics can be shared externally in the future.

Nathaniel Feather asked how Match Group is balancing investment and efficiency to maximize productivity following the recent cost reduction announcement.

Answer

CEO Spencer Rascoff explained that the deep cuts, yielding $100 million in annualized savings, aim to create a more nimble organization and fund reinvestment for growth. He stated the savings allow the company to feel confident in hitting its Investor Day targets while also investing in international expansion for brands like Tinder and Hinge, the affinity segment, and Tinder product development. Rascoff emphasized the cuts make them increasingly confident in their full-year guidance and ability to reinvest.

Nathaniel Feather asked about the potential impact of new trust and safety features, like biometrics, on user growth in 2025 and how to track the underlying quality of the user base.

Answer

President and CFO Gary Swidler explained they iterate on these features to remove bad actors while minimizing impact on good users, with current tests factored into the outlook. CEO Spencer Rascoff added that creating a clean ecosystem is a 'must-have' that drives positive long-term business outcomes like retention and lower acquisition costs, even if it impacts short-term user metrics.

Nathaniel Feather asked about Hinge's 'Your Turn Limits' feature, inquiring about its impact on user growth or churn and whether similar 'nudges' could be applied to other brands in the portfolio.

Answer

CEO Bernard Kim described the feature as a successful innovation that improves conversation quality by adding helpful friction. While not directly linking it to user growth, he noted its launch aligned with Hinge's strong performance and confirmed that such learnings are shared across the company's portfolio.

Nathan Feather asked about the long-term margin benefits from tariff mitigation efforts and the timeline for seeing price increases on owned and third-party brands.

Answer

Co-Founder & Co-CEO Mike Karanikolas explained that tariff pressures led to deeper, long-term partnerships with brands that create win-win solutions. He noted that third-party brands are beginning to pass through mid-single-digit price increases, and Revolve's owned brand strategy is to adjust pricing in line with the broader market.

Nathaniel Feather sought to understand the drivers behind the sales deceleration in April, asking to parse out micro versus macro factors, and questioned if the reduction in gross margin guidance was entirely due to tariffs.

Answer

CFO Jesse Timmermans attributed the April sales trend primarily to macro uncertainty, emphasizing that the team's execution on controllable factors remains strong. He clarified that while tariffs are the main driver of the gross margin guidance change, they would likely have guided slightly lower anyway due to the consumer shift to accessible price points, noting the two factors are intertwined.

Nathaniel Feather asked whether the FWRD segment has returned to sustainable positive growth and requested an update on its inventory levels relative to normalized targets.

Answer

Co-CEO Michael Karanikolas expressed that while the company feels great about FWRD's Q4 progress and sees positive momentum, they would like to see a couple more months of progress before declaring a firm trend. He also stated that FWRD inventory levels remain 'a bit more heavily inventoried than we'd like' and that the company is continuing to work through it.

Nathaniel Feather of Morgan Stanley asked for a breakdown of the drivers behind the improved return rate, questioning the impact of policy versus technology. He also inquired about the future pace of improvement and the revenue acceleration trend during the third quarter.

Answer

Co-CEO Michael Karanikolas explained that while a policy change contributed, the dominant factor was a wide range of customer experience enhancements like improved size and fit information. He expects the pace of improvement to slow but remain a focus. CFO Jesse Timmermans confirmed that revenue accelerated through the quarter, from mid-single-digit growth in July to 10% for the full quarter, with momentum continuing into October.

Nathan Feather asked for a breakdown of the increased marketing spend between the Etsy marketplace and Depop, and inquired about the ROAS gap between paid social and traditional channels like Google Shopping.

Answer

CEO Josh Silverman stated that Q2 spend was more normalized but Q3 will see accelerated investment in Depop. He noted the Q2 increase was driven by opportunistic Google ad buys and improved Martech. CFO Lanny Baker added that Depop's marketing is focused on long-term awareness, implying a longer payback period. The company is making progress in paid social, diversifying spend to build consideration earlier in the customer journey.

Nathaniel Feather inquired about the impact of recent product and marketing changes on peak season trends, specifically asking if they improved gross additions or the LTV to CAC ratio. He also asked for color on the competitive marketing environment in Q1 and the importance of generic GLP-1s to the outperformance of the Clinical business.

Answer

President and CEO Tara Comonte acknowledged ongoing headwinds in the behavioral business but highlighted encouraging clinic performance and positive engagement with new features. CFO Felicia DellaFortuna noted that while the seasonal subscriber step-up may be lower, LTV declines are lessening amid rising acquisition costs. Chief Product Officer Donna Boyer added that member activation rates are the highest since 2020. Regarding the clinic, Boyer explained that offering compounded medication to address shortages drove growth in subscriptions, NPS, and retention, and they are prepared to pivot back to branded drugs as supply improves.

Nathaniel Feather asked about the impact of recent product and marketing changes on peak season performance, specifically on gross additions and the LTV to CAC ratio, and inquired about the competitive marketing environment in Q1.

Answer

CEO Tara Comonte acknowledged ongoing headwinds in the behavioral business but highlighted encouraging trends in clinic performance and member engagement with new features. CFO Felicia DellaFortuna added that LTV declines are lessening and a comprehensive review of marketing is underway. Chief Product Officer Donna Boyer noted that new features drove the highest member activation rate since 2020, a positive leading indicator for retention. Regarding the clinical business, Boyer explained that offering compounded medication to address branded shortages drove growth in subscriptions, NPS, and retention in Q4.

Nathaniel Feather inquired about the initial performance of the compounded semaglutide launch, specifically its impact on conversion, retention, and LTV to CAC, and asked for the top priorities ahead of the upcoming peak season.

Answer

Interim President and CEO Tara Comonte and Chief Product Officer Donna Boyer responded, highlighting a positive impact on sign-ups and customer acquisition costs (CAC) from the compounding launch. Boyer attributed this success to resolving drug shortages, flexible pricing, and reduced friction in the conversion funnel. For the peak season, Comonte stated the focus will be on raising awareness of WW's full spectrum of solutions and launching a brand refresh to emphasize community, joy, and livability.

Nathaniel Feather from Morgan Stanley asked how WeightWatchers plans to achieve sequential growth in its Clinic business amid high competition and ad rates, and requested details on the composition of the announced $100 million in cost savings.

Answer

CEO Sima Sistani explained the strategy involves the 'one platform' approach, adding services like registered dietitian visits to expand ARPU and retention. CFO Heather Stark added that the new 'Fits You' marketing campaign is designed to improve CAC efficiency. Regarding the cost savings, Stark clarified the $100 million is largely fixed, will primarily impact G&A, and is expected to deliver $20 million in savings in 2024 and an incremental $80 million in 2025.

Nathaniel Feather of Morgan Stanley asked for the drivers behind the behavioral subscriber guidance, details on the new marketing campaign, the outlook for the clinical business, and the impact of recent product improvements on member activation rates.

Answer

CEO Sima Sistani expressed confidence in the full-year guidance, attributing it to a new "one membership" marketing strategy launching in May and significant product improvements. She noted that the member activation rate is at its highest since 2020 and core retention is now over 11 months, driven by features that build on prior year initiatives.

Nathaniel Feather asked about the role of physical retail in the go-to-market strategy, given the Costco launch, and inquired about plans for further international expansion.

Answer

Interim Co-CEO Karen Boone explained that while underperforming stores are closing, Peloton is testing a smaller 'micro store' concept and expanding third-party retail partnerships like Costco. She noted the capital-efficient, third-party model in Germany serves as a potential template for future international expansion, which remains a long-term priority to be evaluated with the new CEO.