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Neil Metellia

Vice President and Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies

Neil Metellia is a Vice President and Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies, specializing in coverage of the European Luxury Goods and Retail sector. He provides research and analysis on leading companies including LVMH, Richemont, Burberry, and Kering, and has developed a record for incisive sector insights and timely calls, though detailed performance metrics such as TipRanks rankings or realized returns are not publicly available. Metellia began his career at Jefferies in 2018, following experience as a strategy consultant at OC&C Strategy Consultants, and prior roles in investment research. He holds relevant professional credentials, including being FINRA-registered and licensed for research activities, underpinning his expertise in the luxury and retail equities space.

Neil Metellia's questions to RESIDEO TECHNOLOGIES (REZI) leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Neil Metellia requested a quantitative breakdown of the ERP implementation's impact on Q4, specifically how it contributes to the $40 million EBITDA guide down. He also asked for qualitative factors driving the positive 2026 outlook beyond the Honeywell indemnity and insights into ADI's project pipeline growth and potential secular trends in the security market.

Answer

CFO Michael Carlet estimated ERP costs were roughly split between Q3 and Q4, with revenue impact greater in Q3, and the $40 million EBITDA guide down driven by high single-digit millions in ERP costs and revenue impacts roughly equal across businesses. He noted 2026 growth would build on the $70 million Honeywell benefit, transitory impact recovery, and ongoing initiatives. President of ADI Global Distribution Business Rob Aarnes reported a record project pipeline in October, attributing it to execution and returning customers post-ERP, while maintaining expectations for low to mid-single-digit commercial security market growth.

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Question · Q3 2025

Neil Metellia sought a quantitative breakdown of the ERP implementation's financial impact on Q4, including the allocation of the $15 million in higher SG&A and R&D costs and the revenue impact. He also requested a detailed split of the $40 million EBITDA guidance reduction for Q4 between ERP and HVAC factors. Furthermore, he inquired about specific idiosyncratic drivers for the positive 2026 outlook beyond the Honeywell indemnity benefit and explored whether the record project pipeline indicated a multi-year secular upcycle in the security market.

Answer

CFO Michael Carlet clarified that the $15 million SG&A impact was roughly split between Q3 and Q4, with revenue impact greater in Q3, and estimated the Q4 EBITDA reduction was high single-digit millions from ERP costs, with the remainder from revenue impacts equally across businesses. President of ADI Rob Aarnes expressed optimism about the ERP recovery, citing approaching pre-go-live sales rates and a record project pipeline in October. Michael Carlet outlined 2026 drivers including the Honeywell benefit, recovery from transitory impacts, new product launches, ERP benefits, omnichannel investments, and Snap Synergy. Global Head of Strategic Finance Christopher T. Lee attributed the strong pipeline to ADI's execution and customer re-engagement post-ERP, maintaining a low to mid-single-digit growth outlook for the commercial security market.

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