Nicholas Holowko

Nicholas Holowko asked if the CIB build-out was starting to contribute to deposit gathering and inquired about management's satisfaction with the credit performance of the CIB portfolio to date.

Answer

President of CIB Jake Munn confirmed that CIB is contributing to deposit growth, with deposits from the group growing nearly 20% quarter-over-quarter. Chairman & CEO George Gleason stated they are 'very satisfied' with CIB's credit performance, highlighting that the high quality of new loans is demonstrated by syndicated deals being significantly oversubscribed, leading to scaled-back allocations for the bank.

Nicholas Holowko asked for details on specific property types and geographies where Banco OZK sees potential for increased origination activity, as well as any areas the bank is actively avoiding. He also followed up on the CIB handoff strategy.

Answer

President Paschall Hamblen identified multifamily, industrial, and condominium developments as key opportunity areas, with Miami remaining a high-concentration geography. He also noted successful diversification into markets like Utah and industrial projects along the Mexico border. President of CIB Jake Munn explained that recent CIB growth was driven by a renewed focus on Fund Finance and strong performance from the Corporate Banking & Sponsor Finance (CBSF) group, emphasizing a relationship-focused approach across all units.

Nicholas Holowko of UBS Group inquired about any ambitions in the stablecoin business and asked if the allowance ratio would continue to decline if credit performance remains strong.

Answer

CEO Kevin Blair stated that Synovus views stablecoin as one of many future payment rails but is not pursuing anything outsized. EVP & CFO Jamie Gregory confirmed that continued loan portfolio improvement would reduce the allowance, and a more certain economic outlook could also be a positive driver for the ratio.

Nicholas Holowko asked how technology investments have helped the bank prepare for dynamic policy changes and which specific areas of the portfolio showed credit improvement.

Answer

CEO Kevin Blair explained that technology like cash flow monitoring and daily line utilization tools provide early warnings, complementing improved risk management processes and a diversified balance sheet. Executive Jennifer Demba specified that credit improvement was seen in the seniors housing portfolio due to upgrades and M&A activity, and noted the multifamily portfolio continues to perform well.

Nicholas Holowko asked if the previously guided 15 basis point benefit from fixed-rate asset repricing was still accurate or if there was potential upside, and also inquired about the drivers behind the slight increase in the allowance for credit losses.

Answer

CFO Jamie Gregory indicated the fixed-rate asset repricing benefit could be closer to 20 basis points per year in 2025 and 2026, though the net margin impact is uncertain. He explained the allowance increase was driven by several small factors, including the extended duration of the loan portfolio from new production and a slightly higher near-term unemployment rate in consensus economic forecasts.

Nicholas Holowko from UBS Group asked for updated thoughts on recent regulatory developments and whether any proposals might change how the company thinks about capital deployment. As a follow-up, he inquired about the direction of the net interest margin and NII, specifically regarding trends in loan repricing and any observed spread compression.

Answer

CEO Bryan Jordan responded that while regulatory developments appear positive, they do not change the company's short-term capital strategy, which remains focused on organic growth and buybacks. On competition, he confirmed that it has intensified on both the deposit and lending sides, leading to greater pressure on loan spreads and structure. He expects this competitive environment to persist and likely increase through the second half of the year.

Nicholas Holowko from UBS Group inquired about the bank's view on recent regulatory developments and their impact on capital deployment, as well as current trends in loan repricing and spread compression.

Answer

CEO Bryan Jordan noted that while recent regulatory developments appear positive, they do not change the bank's short-term focus on organic growth and executing its internal strategy. He confirmed that competition has intensified for both loans and deposits, leading to greater pressure on spreads and structure, and he expects this competitive environment to continue through the second half of the year.

Nicholas Holowko asked for more color on recent trends and the near-term outlook for the fixed income business. He also questioned how the recent shift in the forward curve might affect the bank's deposit repricing strategy.

Answer

CEO Bryan Jordan stated that the fixed income business had a good start to the year, driven by a steeper yield curve, and he expects that momentum to continue. CFO Hope Dmuchowski noted that a pause in rate cuts would slow the pace of deposit cost reductions but would be offset by less pressure on loan yields. Jordan added that competitive dynamics, not just the Fed's actions, will ultimately influence deposit pricing.

Nicholas Holowko asked about plans for further debt issuance to support balance sheet growth and inquired if the recent success in environmental-related businesses signifies a new area of emphasis.

Answer

Executive Tom Eklund noted that recent debt issuance was for both funding and capital, and the bank may issue more Tier 1/Tier 2 instruments to balance its capital stack, while prioritizing core deposit growth. CFO Craig Nix clarified that while environmental and energy have been successful, loan growth is broad-based across multiple verticals like global fund banking, tech, and healthcare.

Nicholas Holowko asked if potential changes in the regulatory environment would affect the company's investment plans for Category 3 readiness. He also inquired about the bank's medium-term outlook on its sustainable Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE), given its strategic priorities.

Answer

CFO Craig Nix affirmed that the bank remains committed to meeting Category 3 regulatory expectations and does not anticipate near-term changes that would alter its investment strategy. Regarding profitability, Nix noted that achieving the mid-50s efficiency ratio is a long-term goal dependent on operational improvements and influenced by the interest rate environment, but did not provide a specific ROTCE target.

Nicholas Holowko inquired about the timeline to achieve the high-50s efficiency ratio target, given the current outlook. He also asked about the drivers of strength in the environmental services business and its sustainability.

Answer

CFO James Herzog stated that reaching the target efficiency ratio is not a near-term goal and will primarily be driven by revenue growth over the next 2-4 years, rather than expense cuts alone. Chief Banking Officer Peter Sefzik attributed the strength in environmental services to its two verticals: waste management and a growing renewables energy business, both of which are expected to see steady growth.

Nicholas Holowko asked for an explanation for the shift in the interest rate ramp scenario from liability-sensitive to asset-sensitive. He also questioned if the previously guided 81% beta on ECR deposit costs remains a valid assumption.

Answer

Interim CEO and CFO Dale Gibbons explained that the asset sensitivity in the ramp scenario is due to assuming new loan growth is variable-rate. He noted the bank can manage this exposure by swapping production to fixed-rate if rates fall, thereby protecting earnings. He and Chief Banking Officer Stephen Curley affirmed the ECR beta is still a fair assumption, with recent rate cuts made in Q4 and January expected to fully benefit results in 2025.

Nicholas Holowko asked about the competitive environment's impact on loan origination yields and the specific areas where the company expects to see credit quality improvement in 2025.

Answer

Harold Carpenter (executive) indicated that borrower sentiment is currently more influenced by the future economic outlook than by competitive rate pressures. He stated that while the guide is not heavily dependent on further rate cuts, a better yield curve would be beneficial. On credit, he clarified that the bank does not anticipate drastic losses in commercial real estate and that any potential lumpiness in charge-offs is more likely to originate from the C&I portfolio, as has been the historical trend.

Nicholas Holowko from UBS questioned how the planned $40-$60 million in regulatory-related spending might change if regulations were eased and asked about the status of the direct lending joint venture with Marathon.

Answer

CEO John Ciulla explained that the 2025 investments are foundational and would be made regardless, while investments that are more "check-the-box" are back-ended and could be pulled back if rules change. He also stated the Marathon JV is expected to be active in Q2 2025, but its potential economic contribution is not included in the current guidance, representing potential upside.