Sign in

Nicholas Thillman

Senior Research Analyst at Baird Financial Group, Inc.

Nicholas Thillman is a Senior Research Analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co., focusing on real estate with an emphasis on office, industrial, and healthcare REITs. He covers public companies including Lineage, Americold Realty Trust, Rexford Industrial Realty, Piedmont Office Realty Trust, and Terreno Realty Corporation, and has issued recent ratings and price targets on these names. Thillman’s published performance metrics include a 100% success rate with an average return of 28.05% based on recent stock ratings and a broader 0.45-star rating with a historical average return of -9.82%, ranking 1,567th out of 4,781 analysts. Having begun his career with experience in related finance roles before joining Baird, Thillman currently holds recognized securities licenses and is FINRA registered.

Nicholas Thillman's questions to HIGHWOODS PROPERTIES (HIW) leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Nick Thillman from Baird asked about Highwoods Properties' comfort level with the projected 100-200 basis point occupancy ramp-up in 2026, the underlying assumptions for leasing volume and retention, and the appetite for lease-up risk on acquisitions, including the potential earnings impact of selling versus buying.

Answer

EVP and CFO Brendan Maiorana confirmed comfort with the 100-200 basis point occupancy increase for year-end 2026, based on assumptions of approximately 300,000 sq ft of new leases per quarter and mid-40s retention levels. CEO Ted Klinck stated that Highwoods is willing to take leasing risk on acquisitions where prospects are strong and they can be compensated for the lease-up. Brendan Maiorana added that while quarter-to-quarter earnings might be noisy, the long-term FFO outlook is expected to be unchanged, with higher cash flow and unchanged leverage, similar to past asset rotations.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q3 2025

Nick Thillman questioned the comfort level with the projected 100-200 basis points occupancy ramp-up throughout 2026, including the underlying assumptions for leasing volume and retention. He also asked about the company's appetite for lease-up risk on acquisitions and the expected FFO impact (dilutive, neutral) of selling versus buying.

Answer

EVP and CFO Brendan Maiorana confirmed comfort with the 100-200 basis points occupancy increase for year-end 2026, citing assumptions of around 50% retention and 300,000 square feet of new leases per quarter. CEO Ted Klinck affirmed their willingness to take lease-up risk on acquisitions where leasing prospects are strong and they can be compensated for that risk. Brendan Maiorana added that for large asset rotations, the long-term FFO outlook is expected to remain unchanged, with higher cash flow, stable leverage, and improved long-term growth and portfolio quality.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q2 2025

Nick Thillman of Robert W. Baird & Co. inquired about the potential long-term impact of AI on office demand and asked for the expected normalized tenant retention rate over the next 18-24 months.

Answer

CEO Ted Klinck stated that it is still 'early days' to assess AI's impact, comparing it to past industry challenges like densification that were successfully managed. CFO Brendan Maiorana projected a tenant retention rate of 45-50% for expirations through 2026, which is higher than the recent past and supportive of future occupancy growth.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q1 2025

Nicholas Thillman asked about the space utilization trends of recent law firm tenants and the outlook for 2026 lease renewals and retention.

Answer

COO Brian Leary explained that a new law firm tenant is growing headcount while taking less, more efficient space. Executive Brendan Maiorana added that leasing has been broad-based across industries. He also expressed confidence that tenant retention rates would return to more normalized levels in 2026, creating a favorable environment for occupancy growth after a dip in 2025.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q4 2024

Nicholas Thillman asked if Highwoods is confident it can maintain its recent strong new leasing pace of around 400,000 square feet per quarter. He also inquired about the historical retention rate for smaller tenants and the expected timing for the 1.1 million square feet of signed-but-not-commenced leases.

Answer

CEO Theodore Klinck expressed general optimism for 2025 leasing, but Executive Brendan Maiorana clarified that their official business plan assumes a moderation from 2024's record pace. Mr. Maiorana stated that historical retention is around 60-65% across tenant sizes and confirmed that the 1.1 million square feet of new lease commencements are weighted toward the second half of 2025, driving the expected occupancy recovery.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q3 2024

Nicholas Thillman inquired if the trend of large users seeking suburban space is occurring across all markets and asked for the estimated cost and same-store pool treatment for the Symphony Place repositioning project.

Answer

CEO Theodore Klinck confirmed that larger users are returning to the market across Highwoods' footprint, citing renewed build-to-suit interest as evidence. CFO Brendan Maiorana clarified that the Symphony Place renovation costs are part of the normal, planned capital budget and that the property will remain in the same-store pool during the project, with all costs expensed normally.

Ask follow-up questions

Nicholas Thillman's questions to Piedmont Realty Trust (PDM) leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Nick Thillman inquired about the trend of expansions versus contractions within Piedmont's portfolio, the drivers of new leasing activity (new-to-market vs. market share gains), and the behavior of larger tenants regarding footprint changes and office utilization rationalization. He also asked about any other significant lease expirations (over 100,000 square feet) anticipated in the next two years beyond those already discussed.

Answer

George Wells, Chief Operating Officer, confirmed five consecutive quarters of net expansions, with 16 expansions versus two contractions in Q3 2025, resulting in a net positive of 40,000 square feet. He noted that new leasing activity is mostly driven by intra-market moves for higher quality space. Brent Smith, CEO, added that Dallas shows robust inbound activity. Regarding larger users (25,000-50,000 square feet), Brent Smith indicated a mixed trend, with some consolidations for collaboration and others making small deductions to justify upgrading to premium space. He also stated that significant chunky expirations for 2026 are well-known, providing confidence for earnings growth, and that 2027 has a couple of larger expirations in Atlanta, which are well-positioned for renewal.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q3 2025

Nick Thillman inquired about the company's portfolio expansion versus contraction trends, the drivers behind new leasing activity (new-to-market vs. market share gains), and the behavior of larger tenants (25,000-50,000 sq ft) regarding footprint changes amidst slowing hiring and office utilization rationalization.

Answer

CEO Brent Smith clarified that the 2.2% footprint reduction for large users was a JLL U.S. dataset observation, not specific to Piedmont's portfolio. COO George Wells confirmed five consecutive quarters of net expansions for Piedmont, with 16 expansions versus two contractions in Q3 2025, totaling a net positive of 40,000 square feet. He noted that new leasing activity is primarily driven by intra-market moves for quality upgrades, with Dallas being an exception for robust inbound activity. Brent Smith added that larger users are often consolidating or making small deductions to justify moving to higher-quality, amenitized spaces.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q2 2025

Nick Thillman asked for a high-level overview of Piedmont's long-term portfolio strategy, including the goal for Sunbelt market exposure and the timeline for stabilization and dividend resumption. He also requested specific updates on leasing activity for four large pending vacancies.

Answer

President, CEO & Director Brent Smith confirmed the long-term strategy to increase Sunbelt exposure towards 80% by pruning non-core assets, with a potential dividend return in 2027. EVP & COO George Wells and Brent Smith then provided detailed updates on the leasing pipeline for the specific vacancies mentioned, highlighting strong activity for the Epsilon building in Dallas and the Piper space in Minneapolis, and noting the New York City lease renewal is progressing as expected.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q1 2025

Nicholas Thillman asked for a detailed rationale behind the dividend suspension, questioning if there was pressure from banks or rating agencies and how the saved capital would be allocated between TIs, CapEx, and other uses. He also asked which markets were driving the recent pickup in the 3 million square feet of leasing proposals.

Answer

President and CEO Christopher Smith explained the dividend suspension was a proactive decision to fund significant leasing momentum, calling retained earnings the lowest cost of capital. He confirmed there was no pressure from banks and that rating agencies were supportive of the move to strengthen the balance sheet. He prioritized capital use for: 1) funding leasing (generating >25% returns), 2) improving the balance sheet, and 3) potential future acquisitions. COO George Wells added that Atlanta, Dallas, and Minneapolis are driving proposal activity as they contain most of the firm's vacancy.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q4 2024

Nicholas Thillman asked for more detail on the new leasing acceleration seen early in the year, including the markets, user types, and status of larger requirements. He also sought confirmation on whether the 2025 leasing guidance includes major renewals and if the year-end lease percentage target is a clean comparison.

Answer

COO George Wells confirmed the new activity pipeline contains 2 million square feet, with significant portions in Atlanta (35%) and Minneapolis (28%), and includes 15 deals over 50,000 square feet. President and CEO Brent Smith added that the expected New York City renewal is included in the 2025 guidance and provided updates on 2026 expirations. CFO Sherry Rexroad affirmed that the projected 100 basis point improvement in year-end lease percentage is a clean, apples-to-apples comparison, with no major assets moving to out-of-service status.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q3 2024

Nicholas Thillman requested a breakdown of the 450,000 square foot late-stage pipeline between new and renewal leases. He also asked about the outlook for rental rate spreads into 2025-2026, the profile of assets currently for sale, and the remaining capital spend on redevelopment projects.

Answer

COO George Wells and CEO Brent Smith clarified that 25% of the late-stage pipeline is new activity and that the company's 60-70% renewal rate feels sustainable. Smith noted strong cash roll-ups have averaged 7-8% since the pandemic and expects that strength to continue. EVP of Investments Chris Kollme and CEO Brent Smith described the assets for sale as smaller, non-core but well-leased, with potential proceeds of $50-60 million in 2025. CFO Bobby Bowers stated that approximately $10 million in redevelopment spending remains for the year.

Ask follow-up questions

Nicholas Thillman's questions to EASTGROUP PROPERTIES (EGP) leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Nick Thillman asked if EastGroup Properties expects to maintain strong leasing spreads, specifically in the mid-30s for GAAP, in its operating portfolio next year, considering current activity levels and slightly lower rents.

Answer

Marshall Loeb, CEO, expressed confidence that EastGroup Properties can maintain GAAP releasing spreads at levels similar to Q3. He highlighted that the company reports spreads on leases signed, which provides a more real-time view. Loeb emphasized the promising long-term outlook due to historically low supply, with national deliveries in Q3 being the lowest since Q1 2018, and increasing difficulty in new construction. He believes this limited availability will create upward pressure on rents as demand stabilizes, leading to embedded growth and a potential 'rent squeeze' if market sentiment improves.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q3 2025

Nick Thillman asked about the overall operating portfolio's leasing volume and the expiration schedule for the upcoming year. He questioned whether the company could maintain strong GAAP spreads in the mid-30s, considering the current mix and activity levels.

Answer

CEO Marshall Loeb expressed belief that the company could maintain GAAP spreads at third-quarter levels. He highlighted the favorable market conditions, including historically low supply (lowest national deliveries since Q1 2018) and increasing difficulty in obtaining zoning and permits, which he believes will lead to upward pressure on rents as demand stabilizes. Loeb suggested that a 'rent squeeze' could emerge if demand improves and headlines become less impactful.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q2 2025

Nick Thillman from Robert W. Baird & Co. asked about recent transaction activity, including yields on the Raleigh acquisitions and the strategy behind the increased disposition guidance.

Answer

President and CEO Marshall Loeb reported that the Raleigh acquisitions yielded in the low-to-mid 5% range on a cash basis. He explained the disposition strategy involves selling older assets in slower-growth markets like Jackson and Fresno to fund accretive acquisitions and development in high-growth markets with strong university and technology presences, such as Raleigh and Austin. This capital recycling is an attractive funding source in the current environment.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q2 2025

Nick Thillman of Robert W. Baird & Co. asked for details on recent transaction activity, including the yields on the Raleigh acquisitions and the strategy behind the increased guidance for asset dispositions.

Answer

President and CEO Marshall Loeb stated the Raleigh acquisitions had going-in cash yields in the low-to-mid 5% range. He explained the disposition strategy involves pruning older, slower-growth assets in markets like Jackson, New Orleans, and Fresno to redeploy capital into higher-growth markets like Raleigh and Austin. This is viewed as an attractive source of capital, especially when the equity market is less favorable, to fund accretive acquisitions and drive long-term NAV growth.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q1 2025

Nicholas Thillman asked for the exact bad debt percentage for Q1 and for clarification on whether development yield improvements were being driven by lower costs or higher rent growth.

Answer

Executive Brent Wood provided the exact Q1 bad debt figure as 0.49%. Executive Marshall Loeb then explained that recent development yield strength, such as a 9% yield on delivered projects, has been driven more by strong market rent growth than by cost savings. He expressed optimism for continued rent growth given low vacancy and a limited new supply pipeline.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q4 2024

Nicholas Thillman of Baird asked for more color on the increase in leasing costs observed in the quarter and inquired about the company's expectations for tenant retention in 2025.

Answer

Executive Brent Wood explained that the rise in leasing costs was not due to specific leases but rather a combination of inflationary pressures on tenant improvements (TIs) and higher leasing commissions resulting from significant rent increases. Regarding retention, he noted Q4 was strong at 78% and expects the 2025 rate to be similar to the recent average of around two-thirds, with no major known vacates anticipated.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q3 2024

Nicholas Thillman asked about the nearly $125 million in development starts implied for the fourth quarter, questioning if the demand is concentrated in traditional markets like Florida and Texas or if it is broadening.

Answer

President and CEO Marshall Loeb confirmed that starts are planned for strong markets including Florida, Houston, Arizona (near Mesa airport), and South Carolina. He noted this represents a nice mix of geographies where there is currently limited availability, positioning the new developments well for when they deliver.

Ask follow-up questions

Nicholas Thillman's questions to Lineage (LINE) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Nick Thillman of Robert W. Baird & Co. asked for commentary on the behavior of smaller operators in the cold storage space, particularly regarding their pricing strategies and market pressures.

Answer

President & CEO Greg Lehmkuhl noted that while most competitors are rational, a few smaller players are engaging in aggressive discounting in oversupplied markets. He believes this pressure will be absorbed over time by waning new supply, network consolidation efforts, and the eventual obsolescence of older facilities, some of which will be taken offline.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q1 2025

Nicholas Thillman inquired about trends in variable costs, particularly labor wages and staffing levels amid lower import/export volumes. He also asked for an EBITDA breakdown between the Tyson and Bellingham acquisitions.

Answer

CEO W. Lehmkuhl noted that same-store warehousing costs declined in the quarter due to ongoing labor productivity and lean initiatives, with future benefits expected from LinOS. CFO Rob Crisci added that wage inflation is stable at around 3.5%. Crisci declined to provide a specific EBITDA breakdown for the acquisitions but reiterated they were done at a low double-digit multiple.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q4 2024

Nicholas Thillman inquired about the pricing strategy for 2025, specifically whether Lineage would prioritize occupancy by sacrificing price on new customer acquisitions.

Answer

CEO W. Lehmkuhl reiterated the company's strategy to achieve inflationary-level price increases over the long term while partnering with customers. He noted that they are successfully securing such pricing in nearly all markets and cautioned that external metrics can be skewed by shifts in commodity mix, masking underlying price improvements.

Ask follow-up questions

Nicholas Thillman's questions to COUSINS PROPERTIES (CUZ) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Nick Thillman asked about any shifts in the characteristics of acquisition targets and requested an update on the Samsung lease expiration at Briar Lake in Houston, including whether the property is considered a non-core asset for disposition.

Answer

President and CEO Colin Connolly noted a strategic bias toward acquiring 'new and small' lifestyle-oriented assets. EVP of Operations Richard Hickson expressed confidence in backfilling the Samsung space, potentially by signing direct leases with existing subtenants. EVP and CIO Kennedy Hicks clarified that while Houston is not a core market, Briar Lake is a quality asset and not a top disposition priority.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q1 2025

Nicholas Thillman asked about trends in new-to-market tenant requirements across the portfolio. He also questioned if certain markets, like Dallas, are a priority for capital deployment to improve geographic diversification.

Answer

President and CEO Colin Connolly confirmed an increase in all types of demand, including new-to-market activity, often from existing companies expanding their hubs in Sun Belt markets. He stated that while enhancing geographic diversification in markets like Dallas is a long-term goal, any investment must first meet strict financial and strategic criteria.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q4 2024

Nicholas Thillman asked for more detail on the leasing pipeline, specifically the mix between new and renewal leases and the average size of tenants. He also questioned if other assets beyond North Park would receive aggressive leasing capital to prioritize occupancy.

Answer

EVP of Operations Richard Hickson noted the pipeline's mix is skewed towards new and expansion leases, partly due to low near-term expirations, with tenant sizes varying widely. President and CEO Michael Connolly explained that prioritizing occupancy with capital at an asset like North Park is a strategic decision made in specific situations to ultimately drive FFO growth, leveraging the company's competitive advantages.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q3 2024

Nicholas Thillman of Robert W. Baird & Co. requested a breakdown of the late-stage leasing pipeline between new and renewal deals and inquired about redevelopment cost assumptions for Fifth Third Center and Northpark.

Answer

EVP of Operations Richard Hickson stated the leasing pipeline continues to lean toward new and expansion deals, partly due to a favorable expiration profile. CFO Gregg Adzema noted that plans for Fifth Third are being finalized but costs will likely mirror past redevelopments like Promenade. Hickson added that amenity upgrades are being considered for Northpark. CEO Michael Connolly emphasized the overall high quality and strong capital position of the portfolio.

Ask follow-up questions

Nicholas Thillman's questions to STAG Industrial (STAG) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Nick Thillman from Robert W. Baird & Co. asked about "stubborn vacancy" within the operating portfolio, seeking details on specific markets or asset types experiencing longer downtimes. He also inquired about the progress on early renewals for 2026 expirations and any shifts in lease terms or escalators.

Answer

CEO William Crooker explained that vacancy is highly dependent on building size and market, with larger boxes in markets like Indianapolis and Columbus seeing higher vacancy rates. He noted that average lease-up time has normalized to around 9-12 months. Regarding renewals, Crooker confirmed that STAG is ahead of schedule on 2026 expirations, as sophisticated tenants are actively seeking to lock in rates before anticipated market rent growth accelerates.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q1 2025

Nicholas Thillman asked for details on the characteristics of assets STAG is targeting for acquisition and requested specifics on the Q1 credit loss and the portion of the full-year guidance attributed to American Tire Distributors.

Answer

CFO Matts Pinard explained that STAG evaluates a broad mix of acquisition opportunities, from short-term to long-term leases, highlighting a recent purchase of an asset 40% below market rent. On credit loss, Pinard stated Q1 was minimal at 1 basis point and confirmed American Tire is current on rent. He clarified the 75 basis point full-year guidance includes a standard 50 basis point assumption plus a 25 basis point provision specifically for the American Tire situation as a precaution.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q4 2024

Nicholas Thillman asked about development yields, specifically questioning the stabilized yield on a recently completed Tampa project and whether yields for Spartanburg assets were adjusted. He also requested commentary on leasing activity in the Spartanburg market.

Answer

CEO William Crooker clarified that the company still expects mid-6% stabilized yields for the Tampa assets. Regarding Spartanburg, he noted increased tenant urgency and the successful full-building lease of a 474,000 sq. ft. facility at a ~5% yield, which was ahead of schedule. He also mentioned strong tour activity for other assets in that market.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q3 2024

Nicholas Thillman asked if the early 2025 leasing spreads are indicative for the full year and requested details on Q3 bad debt and any other tenants on the watch list.

Answer

CEO William Crooker confirmed the early 2025 leasing spreads are indicative of current expectations but noted official guidance would come in February. CFO Matts Pinard reported that year-to-date credit loss was $1.4 million (23 basis points), within the full-year guidance of 50 basis points. He added that the tenant watch list composition is similar to the prior quarter.

Ask follow-up questions

Nicholas Thillman's questions to FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST (FR) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Nick Thillman of Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated asked about the future plans for the now fully leased Camelback joint venture project, specifically regarding monetization. He also requested an update on the potential for monetizing parts of the land bank or existing portfolio for data center use.

Answer

CIO Johannson Yap stated the plan for the Camelback project is to maximize value, with options including a sale, acquisition, or holding the asset, and highlighted the remaining 71 acres of land. Regarding data centers, President and CEO Peter Baccile noted it is a long-term project that requires significant investigation into power availability, with no material updates at this time.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q2 2025

Nick Thillman of Robert W. Baird & Co. questioned the company's plans for its Camelback joint venture and sought an update on the potential monetization of its land bank for data center use.

Answer

CIO Johannson Yap explained that the goal for the Camelback JV is to maximize value, with options including selling, holding, or acquiring the partner's stake. CEO Peter Baccile stated there was no significant update on data centers, as such projects are long-term and contingent on securing power.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q4 2024

Nicholas Thillman of Baird inquired about which markets might benefit from the L.A. wildfire rebuilding efforts and whether there has been an increase in build-to-suit development opportunities.

Answer

Chief Investment Officer Jojo Yap opined that L.A. County would likely benefit the most from rebuilding efforts due to the need for nearby storage of materials. Executive Vice President Peter Schultz stated that build-to-suit activity has not seen a significant increase, as tenants currently have choices among existing inventory, making speculative or pre-leased developments more common.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q3 2024

Nick Thillman sought clarification on management's comment about weather becoming a factor in tenant decisions and asked if the boohoo sublease space would be competitive with First Industrial's other available space in the same submarket.

Answer

CEO Peter Baccile explained that the weather comment referred broadly to the increasing frequency of disruptive events that add to economic uncertainty for tenants considering new investments. Executive Vice President Peter Schultz clarified that the boohoo space is not competitive with their other availability, as boohoo will be marketing its entire building, which serves a different tenant need than the smaller 350,000 square foot space First Industrial has available.

Ask follow-up questions

Nicholas Thillman's questions to Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Nick Thillman of Robert W. Baird & Co. asked about recent changes in tenant behavior, specifically regarding lease term lengths and the timing of renewal discussions.

Answer

COO Laura Clark reported that lease terms have remained steady in the four-to-five-year range. She noted a significant acceleration in early renewals (six months or more before expiration), with 1.1 million sq. ft. completed year-to-date, nearly double the volume from the second half of last year. She views this as a positive indicator of tenant health and their long-term need for space.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q2 2025

Nick Thillman of Robert W. Baird & Co. asked about recent changes in tenant behavior, specifically regarding lease term lengths and the timing of renewal discussions.

Answer

COO Laura Clark reported that lease terms have remained stable in the four-to-five-year range. She highlighted a significant trend of accelerating early renewals (six months or more before expiration), with 1.1 million sq. ft. completed year-to-date, nearly double the volume from the second half of last year. This suggests tenants are proactively securing their mission-critical spaces.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q2 2025

Nick Thillman from Robert W. Baird & Co. inquired about recent changes in tenant behavior over the last 60-90 days, specifically regarding lease term lengths and the timing of renewal negotiations.

Answer

COO Laura Clark reported that lease terms have remained stable at four to five years. She highlighted a significant trend of accelerated early renewals (six months or more before expiration), with 1.1 million sq. ft. renewed early year-to-date, nearly double the 600,000 sq. ft. in the second half of last year, suggesting tenants are proactively securing space.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q2 2025

Nick Thillman of Robert W. Baird & Co. inquired about recent changes in tenant behavior, specifically regarding lease term lengths and the timing of renewal discussions over the last 60 to 90 days.

Answer

COO Laura Clark reported that lease terms have remained stable in the four-to-five-year range. She highlighted a significant acceleration in early renewals, with 1.1 million sq. ft. completed year-to-date, nearly double the volume from the second half of last year, indicating tenants are proactively securing their space for the long term.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q2 2025

Nick Thillman of Robert W. Baird & Co. inquired about recent changes in tenant behavior, specifically regarding lease term lengths and the timing of renewal discussions over the last 60 to 90 days.

Answer

COO Laura Clark noted that lease terms have remained steady in the four-to-five-year range. She highlighted a significant trend of accelerated early renewals, with year-to-date activity nearly doubling the volume from the second half of last year. She interpreted this as a positive sign of tenant business strength and their long-term commitment to their space.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q4 2024

Nicholas Thillman of Baird asked about the expected capital spend on redevelopment and repositioning for the year and what portion of the pipeline is sourced from 2025 lease expirations.

Answer

CFO Mike Fitzmaurice directly addressed the spending component, stating that the company has earmarked approximately $275 million for repositioning and development projects in 2025.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q3 2024

Nicholas Thillman asked about leasing mix dynamics, questioning if 2026 expirations would involve larger leases with higher spreads, and also inquired about the expected timing of NOI contribution from the redevelopment pipeline.

Answer

CFO Laura Clark declined to forecast 2026 leasing spreads but highlighted the current portfolio's strong cash mark-to-market of 19%. Regarding the redevelopment pipeline, she and Co-CEO Howard Schwimmer referred to the property-specific stabilization dates in the supplemental report, stating those timelines reflect their current market view.

Ask follow-up questions

Nicholas Thillman's questions to Prologis (PLD) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Nick Thillman from Robert W. Baird & Co. asked for an update on bad debt trends in Q2 and whether any specific tenant types or industries were showing increased credit issues.

Answer

CFO Tim Arndt stated that bad debt was in line with Q1 at around 35-40 basis points, elevated from the historical average of ~20 bps but below GFC levels. He noted no single thesis, but some weakness was tied to Southern California and larger, home-oriented users. CEO Hamid Moghadam added that due to high mark-to-market rents, defaults have been NPV positive in aggregate.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q4 2024

Nicholas Thillman of Baird asked for more detail on 2025 development starts, specifically the expected geographic mix between the U.S. and ex-U.S. and the proportion of build-to-suit projects.

Answer

President Dan Letter stated that he expects U.S. development starts to pick up in 2025 after a slow 2024, but it's too early to provide a specific mix as decisions are made on a deal-by-deal basis. He noted that the company hopes to reach its long-term average of 40% build-to-suits, supported by some large projects that moved from 2024 into 2025.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q3 2024

Nicholas Thillman noted an increase in short-term leases (less than one year) and asked for more detail on the tenants and the strategy behind this trend.

Answer

Timothy Arndt, CFO, explained that the trend is driven by two factors: some tenant uncertainty, but more significantly, a proactive strategy by Prologis. In specific markets where the company anticipates a quicker rent recovery, it is intentionally using shorter lease terms to recapture the upside sooner.

Ask follow-up questions

Nicholas Thillman's questions to AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST (COLD) leadership

Question · Q1 2025

Nicholas Thillman from Baird requested more details on the non-same-store assets being exited, including the profile of the facilities and the rationale, and asked about potential proceeds from assets slated for sale.

Answer

President of Americas Rob Chambers explained the strategy is to exit leased facilities in markets where Americold has owned assets, allowing consolidation into owned sites to shed leases and avoid CapEx. CEO George Chappelle added this optimizes the portfolio for when volume returns. CFO Jay Wells noted the NOI benefit would be back-half weighted. George Chappelle declined to predict proceeds, citing negotiation complexities.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q4 2024

Nicholas Thillman of Baird asked if less aggressive pricing was driving new business demand and about the mix of market share gains versus new customer types. He also sought to confirm the assumed seasonality, with occupancy down year-over-year in the first half before recovering in the second half.

Answer

President of Americas Rob Chambers responded that while market-reflective pricing helps, the primary driver of new business is Americold's operational excellence, which is leading to market share gains and new outsourcing from sectors like retail. CFO Jay Wells confirmed the seasonality assumption, noting that lapping a prior inventory build will impact first-half occupancy, with a recovery expected in the back half of the year, complemented by positive throughput trends.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q3 2024

Nicholas Thillman inquired about the drivers behind the third-quarter occupancy decline, asking if the softness was broad-based or specific to certain geographies or asset types. He also questioned if there was customer pushback on fixed commitment contracts during renewals.

Answer

CEO George Chappelle stated the occupancy decline is broad-based and primarily driven by weak consumer demand, not a specific sector or region, while also noting they are comping against very high mid-80% occupancy levels from 2023. President of the Americas, Rob Chambers, added that fixed commitment contracts continued to grow for the 14th consecutive quarter and that the company is nearing its 60% target ahead of schedule. CFO Jay Wells highlighted that a strong new business pipeline should help grow occupancy next year even in a tough environment.

Ask follow-up questions

Nicholas Thillman's questions to Plymouth Industrial REIT (PLYM) leadership

Question · Q1 2025

Nicholas Thillman asked about the source of a projected Q4 occupancy loss, the status of the Communications Test Design lease, the potential for asset dispositions to de-risk the portfolio, and any changes in collections or the tenant watch list.

Answer

Executive Anthony Saladino clarified the Q4 occupancy dip is from a single tenant, not CTDI, and that no bad debt was utilized in Q1. Executive James Connolly added they are pursuing a longer-term extension with CTDI. Executive Jeffrey Witherell stated that while they always evaluate dispositions, he does not view their single-tenant assets as a risk, citing the successful backfill of a large vacancy in St. Louis.

Ask follow-up questions

Question · Q4 2024

Nicholas Thillman requested clarification on the composition of the 2.2 million square feet of available space and changes to the same-store pool. He also asked about the perceived disconnect between the market's and the company's view of the Sixth Street transaction and inquired about Anthony Saladino's new focus areas as President.

Answer

EVP James Connolly and President/CFO Anthony Saladino clarified the leasing progress and same-store pool changes, noting the former FedEx space is now in the pool. Executive Chairman and CEO Jeffrey Witherell addressed the Sixth Street deal, stating it was a necessary strategic move to secure capital when the equity markets were unfavorable. He expressed patience and confidence in the strategy. Witherell also commented that Saladino's promotion to President recognizes his broad expertise beyond finance, including acquisitions and operational processes.

Ask follow-up questions

Best AI for Equity Research

Performance on expert-authored financial analysis tasks

Fintool-v490%
Claude Sonnet 4.555.3%
o348.3%
GPT 546.9%
Grok 440.3%
Qwen 3 Max32.7%