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    Nicolas Payen

    Research Analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux

    Nicolas Payen is an Equity Analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux UK, specializing in the financial sector with a primary focus on regional banks and major European institutions such as Deutsche Bank. Since joining Kepler Cheuvreux in 2016, Payen has delivered research that is widely referenced in analyst calls, though his publicly available performance track record includes a 0% success rate and an average return of -3.55%, ranking him near the bottom among industry peers. His career has centered on in-depth coverage of financials, with particular expertise in European banking and investment banking trends. While detailed professional credentials such as FINRA registration or securities licenses are not confirmed in the available sources, Payen is recognized for his active participation in high-level investor presentations for leading institutions.

    Nicolas Payen's questions to DEUTSCHE BANK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (DB) leadership

    Nicolas Payen's questions to DEUTSCHE BANK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (DB) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Nicolas Payen from Kepler Cheuvreux asked for clarification on the output floor mitigation measures, particularly how the final application of FRTB provides capital relief, and questioned the full-year outlook for credit loss provisions (CLP) given the guidance for lower H2 provisions despite elevated CRE charges in H1.

    Answer

    CFO James von Moltke explained that the output floor impact can be materially reduced or eliminated over time, with FRTB-related mitigation being straightforward and low-cost once the rules are in force. Regarding CLPs, he noted that while H1 was high due to CRE, the expectation for H2 provisions to be lower than H1 remains, suggesting a full-year number around the consensus of €1.7 billion is a reasonable estimate.

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    Nicolas Payen's questions to DEUTSCHE BANK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (DB) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Nicolas Payen of Kepler Cheuvreux inquired about capital distributions, asking if discussions had begun for a second share buyback and what indicators would trigger it. He also asked for details on the credit loss provision (CLP) overlay related to tariffs and its impact on full-year guidance.

    Answer

    CEO Christian Sewing stated that a second buyback will be reassessed after Q2 results, as the bank intends to demonstrate two strong quarters before engaging regulators. CFO James von Moltke detailed that the CLP overlay was EUR 70 million, driven by macroeconomic variables and tariff-related staging. He confirmed the bank remains on track with its full-year provision guidance.

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    Nicolas Payen's questions to Julius Baer Group (JBAXY) leadership

    Nicolas Payen's questions to Julius Baer Group (JBAXY) leadership • H1 2023

    Question

    Nicolas Payen of Kepler Cheuvreux asked if there was capacity to increase the size of the treasury book, whether recent client deleveraging was geographically consistent with earlier trends, and if M&A opportunities had increased in the current market environment.

    Answer

    CEO Philipp Rickenbacher stated that he has not seen an increase in M&A opportunities and confirmed that deleveraging trends were consistent across the same geographies. CFO Evie Kostakis added that the treasury book's size is dependent on the overall balance sheet, as its primary purpose is to hedge the deposit base.

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    Nicolas Payen's questions to Julius Baer Group (JBAXY) leadership • Q4 2022

    Question

    Nicolas Payen asked about the potential revenue benefit if APAC client activity and leveraging returned to normal levels, and whether a new share buyback program could be initiated in 2023 if the CET1 ratio improves.

    Answer

    CFO Evie Kostakis did not quantify the potential revenue from an APAC recovery but confirmed there is upside potential. Regarding capital returns, she reiterated the firm's policy that the Board of Directors will consider a share buyback if the CET1 ratio is "meaningfully above 14%" at year-end.

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    Nicolas Payen's questions to Julius Baer Group (JBAXY) leadership • Q2 2022

    Question

    Nicolas Payen of Kepler Cheuvreux asked for more detail on the drop in client activity during May and June, specifically if any structured client note losses occurred. He also inquired about the primary sources of future cost pressure and the outlook for personnel expenses.

    Answer

    CFO Evie Kostakis confirmed that the bank experienced no structured client note losses, though issuance volumes did slow down. CEO Philipp Rickenbacher stated that future cost pressure is expected less from personnel and more from ongoing IT investments and a controlled, post-pandemic recovery in general expenses.

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