Nigel Coe

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC sought clarification on the normalized compensation level for next year and asked for confirmation that the $2 billion investment is a total, not incremental, figure, also inquiring about its CapEx/OpEx split and benefits.

Answer

CFO Christian Rothe confirmed the current ~$230 million annual compensation expense, which includes both merit and incentive pay, is considered a normalized level. CEO Blake Moret affirmed the $2 billion is a total five-year spend, with the majority of the incremental portion being CapEx for margin expansion. He added the goal is to improve efficiency within the existing footprint, not just add capacity.

Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research, LLC sought clarification on the normalized compensation expense for next year, whether the $2 billion investment is total or incremental, and what tangible benefits this investment will provide.

Answer

CFO Christian Roethe clarified that the ~$230 million full-year compensation figure includes both merit and incentive pay, with the incentive portion now considered normalized. CEO Blake Moret confirmed the $2 billion is a total five-year figure, with the majority of the *incremental* spend being CapEx for margin expansion. The investment aims to improve efficiency within the existing facility footprint rather than adding many new rooftops.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research sought clarification on U.S.-to-China export exposure, asked for a Q3 outlook by segment, and questioned if the tariff impact would be similar in Q3 and Q4.

Answer

CFO Christian Rothe clarified that of Rockwell's total sales to China (under 4% of total revenue), a 'teens' percentage is exported from the U.S. He declined to provide a quarterly outlook by segment, pointing to the full-year guidance due to current market volatility. He confirmed that the company is currently incurring tariff costs, implying a consistent impact for the remainder of the second half.

Nigel Coe requested clarification on the Q1 earnings per share outlook and asked about the key assumptions that would enable Rockwell to reach the high end of its full-year revenue guidance.

Answer

CFO Christian Rothe confirmed Q1 EPS would be 'significantly below $2' due to volume declines, compensation headwinds, and the non-recurrence of an earn-out benefit. CEO Blake Moret added that achieving the +2% revenue growth at the high end of the guide would require a more pronounced or earlier-than-expected recovery in end markets.

Nigel Coe sought clarification on the AspenTech accounting for renewals, asking if it's a one-time issue or a timing dynamic, and why renewals create a headwind compared to new contracts. He also asked about the drivers behind the Intelligent Devices (ID) acceleration from H1 to H2, specifically if greenfield projects are a factor.

Answer

CFO Michael Baughman clarified that it's a dynamic of renewal dates for multi-year term contracts, not a one-time event or accounting change, and that AspenTech historically didn't smooth these. EVP and COO Ram Krishnan added that Emerson is actively managing renewal dates to smooth future dynamics, expecting tailwinds in 2027-2028. President and CEO Lal Karsanbhai reiterated that, adjusted for renewals, the H1/H2 ramp for ID is consistent with 2025 execution, and Ram Krishnan confirmed that H2-loaded projects are greenfield in life sciences, power, and LNG.

Nigel Coe requested an explanation of the AspenTech software renewal accounting, clarifying if it's a one-time issue and the difference in accounting for renewals versus new contracts. He also asked about the drivers for the acceleration in Intelligent Devices (ID) from 3.3% in the first half to 5% in the second half, specifically if it's due to longer-cycle greenfield projects.

Answer

Michael Baughman (EVP and CFO) and Ram Krishnan (EVP and COO) clarified that the software renewal dynamic is a function of multi-year term contract renewal dates, not a one-time event or new accounting rule, and they are working to smooth out future renewal dates. Lal Karsanbhai (President and CEO) and Ram Krishnan reiterated that the adjusted first half to second half ramp for Intelligent Devices is consistent with 2025, driven by backlog from 2H 2025 project wins in life sciences, power, and LNG.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC sought clarification on the second-half order rate outlook, asking if there were project push-outs, and inquired if the foreign exchange margin headwind from Q3 was expected to recur in Q4.

Answer

President & CEO Lal Karsanbhai corrected that there were no order 'push-outs,' only normal timing variations on large bookings, and MRO activity remained steady. COO Ram Krishnan affirmed that North American greenfield activity is strong. EVP & CFO Mike Baughman stated that a similar FX margin impact is not planned for in the fourth quarter.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC asked for near-term KPIs that support the expected second-half recovery in the discrete and National Instruments businesses. He also questioned the impact of lifting the LNG moratorium and whether Emerson's project win rates vary by geographic region.

Answer

COO Ram Krishnan pointed to sequential orders growth in discrete as a positive sign, with green shoots in semiconductors and North American activity. President and CEO Lal Karsanbhai confirmed the LNG moratorium had paused investments and its removal is beneficial. He asserted that win rates are globally consistent, reflecting significant relationship-building efforts in key regions like North America and the Middle East.

Nigel Coe asked about the expected trend for the Discrete Automation business in the first half of fiscal 2025 and sought clarification on whether the 'EPS neutrality' for the AspenTech transaction includes the full run-rate of synergies or only those captured in FY25.

Answer

President and CEO Lal Karsanbhai noted that discrete orders turned positive in Q4, indicating a bottoming out and recovery through 2025. COO Ram Krishnan added that 3 of 4 Test & Measurement markets have turned, supporting the recovery outlook. CFO Mike Baughman clarified the AspenTech EPS neutrality comment, pointing to expected synergies, the back-half weighted seasonality of AspenTech's business, and the impact of interest rates on short-term debt used for the transaction.

Nigel Coe inquired about the 50% incremental margin for FY2026, asking if his calculation of $250 million in benefits above the 30% baseline operating leverage was accurate, and if these benefits include process improvements and extend beyond FY26.

Answer

CEO Joakim Weidemanis confirmed significant opportunities from the business system, stating that operating leverage would continue to improve over time, reflecting the company's focus on profitable growth and productivity. CFO Marc Vandiepenbeeck agreed that Nigel's numbers were directionally correct.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC asked if free cash flow conversion could consistently exceed 100% and sought clarification on whether the scope of the portfolio under strategic review is still in the 5-10% range.

Answer

CFO Marc Vandiepenbeeck responded that it is too early to commit to over 100% conversion but expressed confidence in solidly delivering in the 90s percentile range. Regarding the portfolio, he confirmed that immediate non-core assets are within the previously discussed range (up to 15%), but the broader strategic review could encompass a larger portion of the business over time.

Nigel Coe asked about the sustainability of the new 100% free cash flow conversion target and questioned where new CEO Joakim Weidemanis stands on the capital allocation debate between M&A and shareholder returns.

Answer

CFO Marc Vandiepenbeeck noted that while it's early to commit to 100% conversion indefinitely, he expects performance to be solidly in the 90s or better. CEO Joakim Weidemanis added that the ongoing strategy review will inform capital allocation, but he sees opportunities for technology-focused acquisitions to differentiate key franchises.

Nigel Coe inquired about the mandate given to incoming CEO Joakim Weidemanis and asked for details on the 90% free cash flow conversion guidance, specifically regarding cash restructuring payments and process improvements.

Answer

Chairman and CEO George Oliver described the rigorous succession process, highlighting Joakim's experience at Danaher and his suitability for Johnson Controls' value creation journey. CFO Marc Vandiepenbeeck confirmed the 90% FCF conversion target includes approximately $250 million in restructuring cash and attributed the improvement to a better operating system, job selection, and inventory management.

Nigel Coe inquired about the fiscal 2025 mid-single-digit growth guidance breakdown by segment, sought details on the 50 bps margin expansion, and asked for verification of the restated Global Products margins. He also asked about the CEO succession process.

Answer

CFO Marc Vandiepenbeeck detailed the growth outlook, noting APAC would likely perform above the company average due to an easier comparison. He attributed margin strength in Global Products to structural operational efficiencies. CEO George Oliver addressed the succession, stating the board is actively reviewing candidates and expects an update in the first half of calendar 2025.

Nigel Coe asked for an unpacking of the drivers behind the aerospace segment's strong performance, particularly its margins and leverage. He also inquired about the outlook for Electrical Americas' margins in 2026, considering factors like price tariffs, investment spending, and volume leverage.

Answer

Paulo Ruiz, Chief Executive Officer, stated that the aerospace business is on track to meet its 2030 target of 27% margins, driven by historical wins on new defense platforms, consistent volume ramps, and improved customer satisfaction. He highlighted strategic levers such as AI tools for supply chain improvement, manufacturing excellence, efficient plant expansion, and portfolio management (renegotiating contracts). Ruiz also mentioned the Ultra PCS acquisition, expected to close in Q4, as a growth accelerator and margin accretive asset. Olivier Leonetti, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, added that the 12% revenue guide for the year assumes continued backlog growth. For Electrical Americas, Ruiz noted that Q3 margins were strong despite lower top-line, as tariffs are no longer a drag. He explained that the business is undergoing significant expansion (12 facilities), leading to over 100 basis points of temporary inefficiencies, which are expected to diminish over time, improving margins in the future.

Nigel Coe asked for an unpacking of the drivers behind the Aerospace segment's strong performance, particularly its margins and high leverage. In a follow-up, he inquired about the various factors influencing Electrical Americas' margins, such as price tariffs, investment spending, and volume leverage, and how these might play out for incremental margins in 2026.

Answer

CEO Paulo Ruiz stated that the Aerospace business is on track to meet its 2030 target of 27% margins, driven by historical wins on new defense platforms, consistent volume ramps, and improved customer satisfaction. He highlighted strategic levers like supply chain improvements using AI tools, manufacturing excellence, plant expansions, and portfolio management, including renegotiating tail contracts. He also mentioned the Ultra PCS acquisition, expected to close in Q4, which will accelerate growth and be accretive to margins. CFO Olivier Leonetti added that the 12% revenue guide for the year assumes backlog growth, with Q3 backlog up 15% year-over-year. Regarding Electrical Americas' margins, Paulo Ruiz explained that Q3 showed resilience despite lower top-line, as tariff costs are now covered and not dilutive. He noted that the business is expanding 12 facilities simultaneously, creating over 100 basis points of inefficiencies, which are expected to diminish over time as plants mature, leading to better margins in the future, though 2026 guidance will be provided in February.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC questioned the margin impact from capacity ramp-up costs in Electrical Americas and asked about the nature and duration of the ERP investments driving up corporate expenses.

Answer

CEO Paulo Ruiz acknowledged that Eaton is currently managing inefficiencies from ramping up six new facilities. CFO Olivier Leonetti quantified this as a 100-basis-point margin headwind in Electrical Americas, with better leverage expected next year. Regarding corporate costs, Ruiz cited M&A expenses and accelerated AI investments, which Leonetti described as a short-term initiative not expected to extend into 2026.

Nigel Coe asked for more detail on the strong performance of the Electrical Global segment, which saw an acceleration to 9% organic growth, particularly regarding trends in APAC and machine OEM. He also requested an update on the U.S. mega projects trend, noting a relevant slide was missing from the presentation.

Answer

President and COO Paulo Sternadt attributed the Electrical Global strength to mid-teens growth in APAC and low-double-digit growth in EMEA, driven by strong utility and data center markets globally. Regarding mega projects, he shared that Q1 saw $169 billion in new announcements, with the monthly rate increasing to $57 billion. He noted that only 15% of announced projects have started, indicating a long tail of business, and the negotiation pipeline from these projects stands at $3.6 billion. CFO Olivier Leonetti added that project cancellation rates remain low at 11%.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC requested a breakdown of the 2025 Aerospace growth forecast, seeking details on the expected performance of OE versus aftermarket and commercial versus military.

Answer

Paulo Sternadt, President & COO, provided a detailed outlook for the Aerospace segment, forecasting low double-digit growth in OEM for both military and commercial, and high single-digit growth in the aftermarket. He emphasized that Eaton is prepared for production ramps but maintains a cautious external forecast, a strategy that proved successful in 2024.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research asked about the Electrical Americas margin outlook, questioning the slight sequential dip in Q4 guidance and the potential for future operating leverage. He also sought clarification on the 2025 framework, asking if Eaton's revenue growth would outpace the forecasted 6-8% end market growth.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Craig Arnold stated that the Electrical Americas business has not reached its maximum margin potential, citing operating leverage, manufacturing efficiencies, and restructuring as levers for improvement. He also noted margin opportunities in the Electrical Global and Aerospace businesses. Regarding 2025 growth, Arnold confirmed the company's ambition and expectation to grow faster than its end markets but deferred providing a specific forecast until the Q4 call and upcoming investor meeting.

Nigel Coe asked for an update on the expected impact of the second price increase in Q4 2025 and a mark-to-market on tariff inflation, specifically if the 10% tariff reduction on certain goods impacts Q4.

Answer

President and CEO Chris Nelson confirmed the second price increase is in the low single-digit range, emphasizing ongoing production moves to reduce reliance on China imports (targeting below 10% by year-end 2025 and below 5% by end of 2026). He stated the 10% tariff reduction has no material impact on overall tariff exposure or long-term strategy. EVP and CFO Pat Hallinan added that the Q4 benefit from this reduction is minimal, in the very low single-digit millions.

Nigel Coe asked for an update on the expected impact of the second price increase in Q4 and sought clarification on the current tariff inflation outlook, specifically regarding the 10% tariff reduction and its effect on Q4.

Answer

Chris Nelson, President and CEO, confirmed the second price increase is in the low single-digit range, emphasizing efforts to reduce reliance on China imports (below 10% by year-end, below 5% by end of 2026). Pat Hallinan, EVP and CFO, added that the 10% tariff reduction would have a minimal impact, estimated at $5 million-$10 million for Q4 and early 2026.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC sought clarification on the status of the next price increase, the components of the $800 million tariff estimate, and the company's progress on achieving USMCA compliance for products from Mexico.

Answer

COO Christopher J. Nelson stated they are in discussions with channel partners for a modest Q4 price increase and have plans to improve USMCA compliance to industry averages over time. CFO Patrick D. Hallinan detailed that the $800 million tariff estimate is an update from a previous $600 million figure, reflecting higher anticipated tariffs from China, Mexico, and the rest of the world.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC asked for clarification on the mechanics of the Q2 LIFO charge, specifically if it was a non-cash mark-to-market adjustment. He also questioned how the company could achieve greater USMCA compliance given that key power tool components, like batteries, are largely sourced from China.

Answer

EVP and CFO Pat Hallinan explained the LIFO charge is an accounting requirement where the full-year anticipated tariff variance begins to roll off the balance sheet, disproportionately impacting Q2 before pricing fully catches up. COO Chris Nelson added that the company is exploring various options for importing, packaging, and pairing batteries with tools to achieve USMCA compliance while protecting its technology.

Nigel Coe inquired about the planned SG&A investments for 2025, asking if the step-up seen in the fourth quarter represents the new run rate to support the company's accelerated growth initiatives.

Answer

COO Chris Nelson detailed that investments are focused on the professional end-user, accelerating product launches, adding field resources for market activation, and increasing promotion for core brands like DEWALT, Stanley, and Craftsman. CFO Pat Hallinan clarified that for the full year, SG&A as a percentage of sales is expected to be around 22%, with some minor quarterly fluctuations due to sales seasonality rather than changes in investment cadence.

Nigel Coe sought confirmation that the $2 billion cost savings exit rate for next year remains intact despite volume and mix pressures. He also asked President and CEO Don Allan to discuss scenario planning for potential tariffs following the U.S. election.

Answer

COO, EVP and President, Tools & Outdoor Chris Nelson confirmed the focus remains on hitting the $2 billion EBITDA threshold in the first part of 2026 by managing the total income statement. President and CEO Don Allan addressed the tariff question, stating the company has a robust playbook ready. The plan involves initial price increases and a two-year mitigation strategy of moving production from China to other parts of Asia or Mexico, while also engaging in government relations to educate politicians on the industry impact.

Nigel Coe, Managing Director of Equity Research at Wolfe Research, asked for a deeper dive into the high single-digit organic growth in automation, seeking to understand the balance between easy comps/destocking and genuine inflection in customer demand, particularly in Europe. He also inquired about the future margin objective for the EMG segment, considering Paragon's contribution.

Answer

Chairman and CEO David Zapico clarified that AMETEK's strength in automation is primarily in discrete automation for precise machines, where customers are returning after a destocking period, leading to strong performance. He acknowledged the easy comps but emphasized the niche's distinct strength. Regarding EMG margins, Zapico stated that Paragon provides an opportunity to increase them further, expecting the segment to achieve record margins going forward, with a specific target to be set for next year.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC asked if the aerospace and defense businesses had a book-to-bill above one and inquired about pressures from academic and government funding on research-focused businesses, requesting the size of this exposure.

Answer

Chairman and CEO David Zapico confirmed the A&D book-to-bill was above one. He identified research/academia and semiconductor as the two verticals facing headwinds, sizing the research market at about 10% of AMETEK's total business. He noted that funding delays in the U.S. are creating a headwind that will likely persist through Q3.

Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research asked for the full-year organic growth breakout between the EIG and EMG segments, the reasons for lighter EMG margins in Q4, and whether the automation business is expected to return to positive growth in Q1.

Answer

Executive David Zapico stated that for the full year, EMG's organic growth is expected to be slightly higher than EIG's. He attributed the Q4 EMG margin pressure to the calendar effect and volume declines in the highly profitable automation business due to destocking. He noted that the automation business is lagging the medical business in its recovery and did not commit to positive growth in Q1.

Nigel Coe asked about the drivers of the positive 2% organic order growth, which seemed ahead of expectations, and questioned if the inventory drawdown at Paragon should be viewed as a one-time event that will fully reverse in 2025.

Answer

Chairman and CEO David Zapico confirmed the positive organic order growth but did not comment on prior expectations. Regarding Paragon, he stated that as the inventory situation abates, performance will 'definitely' improve in 2025, supported by a lower cost structure and new product introductions, though he cautioned the recovery would be gradual.

Nigel Coe inquired about Fortive's implied Q4 EBITDA margin guide, noting Q3's strong margin performance and asking if it was a 'stars aligning' quarter, also seeking details on expected Q4 tariff offsets and the impact of the government shutdown on Gordian and overall business.

Answer

CFO Mark Okerstrom attributed Q3's overperformance to revenue and cost discipline, including discrete actions and one-timers like incentive compensation adjustments and increased software development capitalization. He noted resources would be redeployed for growth in Q4. President and CEO Olumide Soroye clarified that Fortive's government business is primarily state and local, with minimal direct federal exposure, thus the federal shutdown has not been a major factor.

Nigel Coe inquired about the implied Q4 EBITDA margin guidance, questioning if Q3's strong margin performance was a one-off and seeking details on expected tariff offsets in Q4. He also asked about the impact of the government shutdown on Fortive's performance in October, particularly concerning Gordian.

Answer

Mark Okerstrom, Fortive's CFO, explained that Q3's overperformance was due to revenue and significant cost discipline, including discrete actions to free up resources for 2026 growth initiatives. He noted some one-timers like incentive compensation and capitalized software development, expecting resource redeployment and reinvestment in Q4 while maintaining cost discipline. Olumide Soroye, Fortive's President and CEO, clarified that Fortive's government business is primarily state and local, with minimal direct federal exposure, thus the federal shutdown has not been a major factor, and current guidance remains robust.

Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research, LLC sought to clarify the Q3 sales guidance, asking if the outlook for sales to be 'in line with 2Q' referred to dollar sales or organic growth. He also questioned why the Advanced Healthcare Solutions (AHS) segment was not expected to improve in the second half despite temporary Q2 headwinds and inquired about software renewal rates at Gordian.

Answer

CFO Mark Okerstrom clarified that Q3 dollar sales are expected to be broadly similar to Q2. CEO Olumide Soroye explained the AHS outlook is influenced by a challenging year-over-year comparison in Q3 and a prudent assumption regarding the recovery timeline for hospital spending. He also confirmed that software renewal rates and Net Dollar Retention (NDR) were very strong across the portfolio during the quarter.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC sought clarity on Q3 sales guidance, questioned why the Advanced Healthcare Solutions (AHS) segment wouldn't improve in H2 given temporary headwinds, and asked about Gordian's renewal rates.

Answer

CFO Mark Okerstrom clarified that Q3 dollar sales are expected to be similar to Q2. CEO Olumide Soroye noted that AHS faces a difficult year-over-year comparison in Q3 and the company is being prudent in its recovery assumptions. He added that while it's early, Gordian is seeing positive signs and that software renewal rates and Net Dollar Retention were strong across the portfolio.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research inquired about the specifics of the Q1 selling day headwind and the impact of foreign exchange on margins, particularly within AHS. He also asked for an update on the expected public company and stranded costs associated with the upcoming spin-off.

Answer

SVP and CFO Charles McLaughlin confirmed the days impact is simple calendar days and that AHS margins are hit more by FX. Executive Elena Rosman quantified the days impact as a 200 basis point headwind to AHS growth in Q1. McLaughlin estimated total stranded costs at $50-$60 million, with half to be offset before the spin and the rest worked down over 12-18 months. President and CEO James Lico added that the $185 million in separation costs are onetime professional fees.

Nigel Coe of Melius Research inquired about the segment-level core growth assumptions for the fourth quarter and asked for details on the Advanced Healthcare Solutions (AHS) segment, including the direct sales strategy, consumables growth, and any impact from IV shortages.

Answer

Elena Rosman, an executive, and James Lico, President and CEO, confirmed the Q4 outlook, clarifying AHS growth would be mid-to-high single digits. Lico highlighted that AHS's strong 9% core growth in Q3 was driven by solid execution, particularly the North American direct sales transition boosting capital sales. He also noted strong SaaS growth at Provation and a minor headwind from IV bag shortages.

Nigel Coe inquired about the 24% margin target on Slide 12, clarifying if it represents a foundational floor for future performance, and sought details on the costs associated with first-half restructuring and the benefits expected from the ERP system implementation. He also asked about visibility into structural growth vectors like data centers and personal mobility, price carry forward for the next year, and the anticipated bottoming of off-highway and on-highway markets, including OEM production schedule visibility.

Answer

CEO Ivo Jurek clarified that the 24% margin target on Slide 12 is a foundational floor, representing the impact of restructuring without assuming top-line growth, and expressed optimism for positive growth in 2026 from strategic revenue initiatives. CFO Brooks Mallard detailed one-time costs for restructuring, including freight, expediting, redundant labor, and productivity costs, and highlighted the ERP system's role in improving efficiencies and capabilities without specific financial benefits built into the current outlook. Jurek further elaborated on strong confidence in personal mobility's 30% CAGR (2025-2028) due to design wins and post-COVID de-stocking, accelerated adoption of liquid cooling in data centers with robust design-in activities, and stable growth in automotive replacement. He also noted stabilization in auto OE, green shoots in commercial construction, and anticipated troughing in agriculture and diversified industrial markets for 2026.

Nigel Coe inquired about Gates Industrial's 2027 margin target, specifically if the 24% figure should be considered a floor, and sought details on the costs associated with H1 2026 restructuring and ERP system implementation benefits. He also asked about visibility into structural growth vectors like data centers and personal mobility, price carry forward, and the anticipated bottoming of off-highway and on-highway markets, including OEM production schedule visibility.

Answer

CEO Ivo Jurek clarified that the 24% margin target for 2027 represents a foundational floor, excluding growth forecasts, and expressed optimism for positive market turns and strategic revenue generation in 2026. CFO Brooks Mallard detailed the one-time costs for restructuring and ERP implementation, including additional freight, labor, and productivity costs, while highlighting the ERP system's expected improvements in efficiencies and capabilities without specific financial benefits built into the current outlook. Mr. Jurek further elaborated on the strong confidence in personal mobility's 30% CAGR (2025-2028) due to design wins and post-COVID de-stocking, accelerated adoption of liquid cooling in data centers with robust design-in activities, and stable growth in automotive replacement. He also noted stabilizing auto OE business, green shoots in commercial construction, and anticipated troughing in agriculture and diversified industrial markets for 2026.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC inquired about the company's confidence in the forecasted 3% growth pivot for Q3, seeking details on order rates, backlog, and price contribution. He also asked for an updated view on the scale of the data center market opportunity.

Answer

CEO Ivo Jurek expressed strong confidence in the Q3 forecast, citing improving order rates, troughing end markets, and significant acceleration in the personal mobility segment. Regarding data centers, Jurek stated he is now even more bullish on the opportunity, viewing the previously mentioned $150 million target as 'totally doable' due to the rapid industry-wide adoption of liquid cooling.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC inquired about the company's confidence in its Q3 growth forecast of 3%, asking about the influence of order rates, backlog, and pricing. He also sought an updated view on the scale of the data center market opportunity.

Answer

CEO Ivo Jurek expressed strong confidence in the Q3 forecast, citing stable order rates, troughing industrial markets, and significant acceleration in the personal mobility segment. He confirmed the data center opportunity is substantial, stating he is even more bullish on reaching the previously mentioned $150 million target due to the rapid adoption of liquid cooling.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC inquired about the company's confidence in its Q3 growth forecast of 3%, asking about order rates and incremental price contribution. He also sought an updated view on the potential scale of the data center market opportunity.

Answer

CEO Ivo Jurek expressed strong confidence in the Q3 forecast, citing stable order rates, troughing end markets (excluding on-highway), significant acceleration in personal mobility, and a modest price contribution. Regarding data centers, Jurek stated his view is now "even more bullish" due to the rapid adoption of liquid cooling, and he affirmed that the previously mentioned $150 million revenue target is "totally doable."

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC inquired about the company's confidence in its Q3 growth forecast of 3%, asking about order rates and pricing, and followed up on the potential scale of the data center market opportunity.

Answer

CEO Ivo Jurek expressed strong confidence in the Q3 forecast, citing stable order rates, troughing end markets, strength in replacement channels, and significant acceleration in personal mobility. Regarding data centers, Jurek stated he is now even more bullish on the opportunity, calling the previously mentioned $150 million target "totally doable" due to the rapid adoption of liquid cooling.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC inquired about the company's confidence in its Q3 growth forecast of 3%, asking about order rates and pricing. He also asked for an updated view on the size of the data center market opportunity.

Answer

CEO Ivo Jurek expressed strong confidence in the Q3 guidance, citing stable order rates, troughing end markets, and significant acceleration in the personal mobility segment. Regarding data centers, Jurek stated his view is now "even more bullishly" than before, driven by the rapid adoption of liquid cooling, and affirmed that a $150 million revenue opportunity is "totally doable."

Nigel Coe asked if the price increases to offset tariffs would be concentrated in the U.S. and whether competitors lack a similar 'local-for-local' manufacturing footprint, creating a competitive advantage for Gates. He also requested an update on the company's liquid cooling business for data centers.

Answer

CFO L. Mallard clarified that pricing actions are based on the net impact of tariffs and supply chain reconfiguration, not strictly regional, though there might be slightly more in the U.S. CEO Ivo Jurek asserted that Gates is likely the best-positioned company due to its manufacturing footprint, with most competitors being foreign and less favorably positioned. On liquid cooling, Jurek reported growing engagement with a significant number of new customers, including server manufacturers and hyperscalers, with products in various stages of testing and validation. He noted significant interest in Asia for the company's e-water pump.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research inquired about the Q4 revenue benefit from the new retail partner conversion and asked for an update on the company's progress in the data center liquid cooling market, including customer specification status.

Answer

CEO Ivo Jurek confirmed a partial benefit from the new retail partner in Q4, with a more significant ramp-up expected in Q1 2025, ultimately contributing 100-150 basis points of incremental growth for the full year. On data centers, he described deep engagement with a broad set of customers, with projects in various stages from validation testing to late-stage award negotiations, expressing confidence in the company's positioning.

Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research, LLC sought clarification on the footprint optimization savings, Q4 margin dynamics, the data center market opportunity, and the potential for a return to growth in Q1 2025 based on seasonality.

Answer

CFO L. Mallard clarified that the $40 million in savings from footprint optimization is a run-rate target for the end of 2026 and not a specific margin guide. He attributed the Q4 margin pressure to a one-time, 75-80 basis point headwind from accelerating a new automotive replacement contract. CEO Ivo Jurek confirmed the data center TAM is similar to their previous $1B-$1.5B estimate. Regarding Q1, Mallard acknowledged that normal seasonality would suggest a return to growth but deferred formal guidance.

Nigel Coe asked for Watsco's perspective on changes in customer behavior, specifically if the higher cost of A2L full system replacements versus partial replacements was a factor, and if R32 products (ductless/Goodman) showed better sell-through dynamics than 454B. He also inquired why Hardy data seemed disconnected from Watsco's and OEM partners' observations.

Answer

Paul Johnston (EVP, Watsco Inc) confirmed A2L products require replacing both coil and outdoor units, increasing consumer cost, and noted continued growth in ductless products. Aaron J. Nahmad (President, Watsco Inc) attributed the slowdown more to macro influences like low consumer confidence, home trading, and tariffs, rather than simple price elasticity. Paul Johnston (EVP, Watsco Inc) explained Hardy data differences, noting that major OEMs' sales through their own stores or Watsco are not reported to Hardy, and that Hardy data tends to be more commercial refrigeration, repair-side, and northern-based. He stated HRI data is the only reliable index. Paul Johnston (EVP, Watsco Inc) also commented on the 'odd year' weather, with May/June not having typical peak heat.

Nigel Coe sought Watsco's perspective on changes in customer behavior, the impact of the A2L transition on replacement costs, and trends in R32 products. He also asked about the perceived disconnect between Hardy data and Watsco/OEM trends, and the influence of weather.

Answer

Paul Johnston (EVP, Watsco Inc) explained that A2L products require full system replacement, increasing consumer cost, and noted continued growth in ductless products. Aaron J. Nahmad (President, Watsco Inc) attributed the industry slowdown more to macro factors like low consumer confidence and housing market conditions than just A2L pricing. Paul Johnston (EVP, Watsco Inc) detailed reasons for the Hardy data disconnect, including OEM direct sales and geographic bias, and mentioned unusual weather patterns. Barry Logan (Senior VP, Watsco Inc) highlighted the consistently high credit quality of Watsco's contractors.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research asked about the sell-through trend for R-410A inventory and whether the company was incentivizing its sale. He also questioned if contractors were asking for price relief to stimulate weak demand.

Answer

EVP Paul Johnston reported that R-410A is now less than 5% of inventory, with efforts focused on matching remaining components. CEO Albert Nahmad clarified that sell-through incentives are local decisions, not a corporate mandate. VP Rick Gomez added that A2L sell-through exceeded 80% in June. On pricing, Johnston stated they are not seeing significant pushback from contractors, as the market lacks demand elasticity.

Nigel Coe asked if increased discounting on high-tier equipment was impacting gross margins and questioned the readiness of contractors and consumers for the A2L transition. He also asked if extra selling days contributed to October's growth.

Answer

EVP Barry S. Logan and Executive Paul Johnston responded that transactional margins are stable and the pressure is from mix, not discounting, noting a compression towards standard efficiency equipment. Paul Johnston stated contractors will adapt easily to A2L, but consumers may face 'sticker shock' from needing full system replacements. President Aaron Nahmad highlighted Watsco's role in preparing contractors. Barry Logan also confirmed hurricane impacts and calendar effects were not material drivers of October's results.

Nigel Coe followed up on the 100 basis points benefit from tariff refunds, asking if it was a one-time event or indicative of ongoing exemptions, and requested an update on Hayward's supply chain realignment efforts. He also inquired about the early buy program's participation levels (flattish versus modest growth) and any historical correlation between early buy strength and the following year's performance.

Answer

Eifion Jones, Senior VP and CFO, clarified that the tariff refund was for re-exported products and was a cumulative pop in Q3, but they will continue to apply for eligible refunds. Kevin Holleran, President and CEO, stated Hayward is well-progressed on reducing China exposure from 10% to 3% through supplier negotiations, strategic inventory buy-ahead, footprint reshoring, and pricing actions, with recalibration costs coming in lower than anticipated. Regarding early buy, Mr. Holleran indicated that internal targets included modest volume growth in addition to price, and current progress reflects some volume participation. He noted no immediate correlation data for early buy strength and subsequent year performance but would investigate.

Nigel Coe asked for more details on the 100 basis points benefit from tariff refunds, questioning if it was a one-time event or indicative of ongoing exemptions, and requested an update on Hayward's supply chain realignment. He also inquired about the early buy program's participation levels and any correlation between its strength and the following year's performance.

Answer

Eifion Jones, Senior VP and CFO, clarified that the tariff refund was a cumulative duty clawback for ERW products exported from the U.S. after being imported, and while Q3 saw a pop, applications will continue. He confirmed significant progress in tariff mitigation, reducing China exposure from 10% to 3% for North American business, with recalibration costs lower than anticipated. Kevin Holleran, President and CEO, added that the supply chain team's structured approach involved supplier negotiations, strategic inventory buy-ahead, reshoring, and pricing actions. Regarding early buy, Mr. Holleran stated that internal targets included modest volume growth in addition to price, and current participation reflects this, though he lacked data on the correlation between early buy strength and subsequent year performance.

Nigel Coe followed up on the "repair versus replace" dynamic, asking about its duration and impact on future pricing power. He also inquired about the unit cost comparison of reshoring production from China to the U.S., excluding tariffs.

Answer

President and CEO Kevin Holleran noted that parts revenue has increased for several quarters but has escalated more recently. He affirmed the company expects to implement a price increase next year to remain price-cost neutral against inflation. SVP & CFO Eifion Jones explained that the landed cost of Chinese goods is now significantly higher, making it sensible to utilize under-capacitated North American facilities. He estimated the incremental COGS impact from reshoring is less than 1% of net sales, which will be recovered through operational mitigation programs.

Nigel Coe asked for a breakdown of the 13% volume growth in North America between in-quarter demand and early buy strength, and inquired about the potential impact of new tariffs from China, Mexico, and Canada.

Answer

CFO Eifion Jones clarified that Q4 volume growth was driven by both strong in-quarter demand and higher year-over-year early buy orders, resulting in a stronger backlog for 2025. CEO Kevin Holleran added that hurricane-related repairs contributed to in-quarter demand. Regarding tariffs, Holleran stated that with 85% of North American sales produced locally, the direct impact is limited, but the company is monitoring its Tier 2/3 supply chain and is prepared to use pricing to offset any identified cost impacts.

Nigel Coe questioned the drivers behind the wide Q4 revenue guidance range, asking if it was related to early buy variability. He also asked about the correlation between early buy strength and the outlook for the following season.

Answer

CEO Kevin Holleran explained that solid early buy activity is a positive indicator for 2025, reflecting channel inventory and dealer optimism. However, CFO Eifion Jones clarified that the Q4 guidance range is primarily driven by uncertainty around 'in-season' orders, not the early buy program, which is tracking as expected. Jones also confirmed the sustainability of North American gross margins, noting fixed costs are only about 10% of COGS.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research asked about the visibility and drivers behind the anticipated 10% repair activity growth in Q4, and the implications for maintenance growth, including pressure points from mix. He also sought clarification on the Q4 new equipment margin outlook, particularly how it compares to typical seasonal declines and the impact of China transformation savings.

Answer

Judy Marks, Chair, CEO, and President, outlined the sequential improvement in repair growth (1% in Q1 to 7% in Q3, with 10%+ expected in Q4), driven by focused backlog conversion, mechanic availability, and aging elevators. Cristina Méndez, EVP and CFO, explained that maintenance and repair should be viewed together due to varying contractual setups, noting maintenance grew 3% year-to-date, with mix and churn as current headwinds. Regarding new equipment margins, Judy Marks attributed Q3's better-than-expected performance to accelerated China transformation savings and increased shipments from the North America factory. Cristina Méndez projected Q4 new equipment margins around 4%, acknowledging seasonal lows but anticipating moderation due to sales trends and China savings, leading to a full-year decline of approximately 130 basis points.

Nigel Coe asked about the strong momentum in repair activity, seeking visibility on the projected 10% growth for Q4 and the factors driving this acceleration. He also questioned the implied sub-4% core maintenance growth rate, asking about pressure points from mix and churn and how these might resolve into 2026. Additionally, he sought clarification on the Q4 new equipment margin outlook, noting that Q3 margins were better than expected and Q4 is typically lower.

Answer

Judy Marks, Chair, CEO, and President, Otis Worldwide Corporation, detailed the sequential improvement in repair growth (1% in Q1, 6% in Q2, 7% in Q3, 10%+ expected in Q4), attributing it to increased orders, quicker backlog conversion, and readily available mechanics and parts. Cristina Méndez, EVP and CFO, Otis Worldwide Corporation, explained that maintenance growth has been stable at 3% year-to-date, driven by 4% portfolio growth and 3% price, with mix and churn acting as a headwind, which is being addressed through customer retention and pricing strategies. Regarding new equipment margins, Ms. Marks cited China transformation savings and higher shipments from the North America factory as drivers for Q3's better performance. Ms. Méndez projected Q4 new equipment margins to be around 4%, acknowledging seasonal lows but supported by moderating sales declines and accelerated China savings, leading to a full-year decline of approximately 130 basis points.

Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research, LLC inquired about the drivers of strong new equipment orders in the Americas despite a multifamily housing slowdown and whether expected order growth in China was due to easier comparisons or stimulus. He also asked for an explanation of the projected earnings step-up from Q3 to Q4 2025.

Answer

CEO Judith Marks attributed the 15% new equipment order growth in North America to strength in infrastructure, with residential orders flat. Regarding China, she noted the market remains weak, but Otis is being disciplined on value and service attachment. EVP & CFO Cristina Méndez detailed the Q3-Q4 cadence, explaining that Q3 margins will be impacted by temporary production furloughs, while Q4 earnings will be boosted by improved China shipments, significant acceleration in repair and modernization sales, and productivity gains.

Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research, LLC inquired about the drivers behind the strong new equipment orders in the Americas despite multifamily weakness and whether China's expected order growth was due to easier comps or stimulus. He also asked about the unusual earnings step-up from Q3 to Q4.

Answer

Chair, President & CEO Judith Marks attributed the Americas' 15% order growth to infrastructure strength, with residential orders being flat. For China, she noted that while comps help, the market remains weak. EVP & CFO Cristina Méndez detailed the earnings cadence, explaining that Q3 margins will be impacted by temporary factory furloughs, while Q4 will see a significant ramp-up in repair and modernization sales, driving a strong finish to the year.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research sought further clarification on the tariff impact calculation and asked about the underlying segment margin assumptions that result in the full-year guidance of 10 basis points of total operating margin expansion.

Answer

CFO Cristina Mendez clarified the tariff math, stating the in-year 2025 impact is estimated at $60 million. Regarding margins, she explained the 10 bps expansion includes a 40 bps headwind from tariffs. New Equipment margins will benefit from cost actions but face pressure from tariffs. Service margin expansion will be slightly lighter than in the prior year due to sales mix and intentional investments in service excellence to drive long-term growth.

Nigel Coe followed up on modernization margins, asking for the 2025 outlook, and requested a breakdown of where the cost savings from the uplift and China transformation programs would be allocated. He also inquired about the 2025 service margin cadence.

Answer

Executive Judith Marks stated that modernization margins surpassed New Equipment margins in 2024 and are on a path to double digits. Executive Cristina Mendez detailed that the China savings are entirely in Equipment, while uplift savings are roughly 65% in Service and 35% in Equipment. She also explained the large 2025 restructuring charge is to finalize these programs, positioning the company for a strong 2026.

Nigel Coe inquired about the drivers of New Equipment pressure in China, asking if it was due to deteriorating margins from irrational pricing beyond just mix effects, and questioned the company's strategy. He also asked about the flat year-over-year Service margins and whether labor inflation was worsening.

Answer

Chair, CEO and President Judith Marks explained that while the China New Equipment market is weak, pricing is competitive but not irrational. She stated Otis is balancing volume, price, and liquidity, and that the pivot to service is working, with service now comprising one-third of China's revenue. EVP and CFO Cristina Mendez added that Service margins were in line with expectations, with strong pricing and productivity offsetting wage inflation, which is also in line with expectations.

Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research asked about the margins for DMC Power, specifically if EBITDA margins were north of 40%. He also inquired about any impact from storm activity on the Q3 utility performance and whether there's a sales channel opportunity for Systems Control (control house applications) into the data center market.

Answer

Gerben Bakker (Chairman, President and CEO, Hubbell Incorporated) confirmed that there was no storm impact in Q3. He stated that DMC Power is indeed a very attractive margin business, driven by its unique swage technology solution for substation connectors, which offers significant installation efficiency. He highlighted its strong fit within Hubbell's portfolio, allowing Hubbell to boost its growth. Bill Sperry (EVP and CFO, Hubbell Incorporated) agreed that there's a lot of growth in control house applications for data centers, noting that Hubbell already has PCX for this, and sees interesting best practices to share between data centers and utility substations. Gerben Bakker added that they are currently focused on serving utility customers and adding capacity but see opportunities to expand into other areas.

Nigel Coe asked about the reported EBITDA margins for DMC Power, inquiring if they were indeed north of 40%. He also questioned if there was any impact from storm activity on Q3 utility performance and explored the sales channel opportunity for System Control into the data center market, given the demand for control house applications.

Answer

Gerben Bakker, Chairman, President, and CEO, confirmed no storm impact in Q3. He affirmed that DMC Power is an 'attractive margin business' with a unique swage technology solution in substations, driving efficiency and strong margins, fitting well into Hubbell's connector portfolio. Bill Sperry, EVP and CFO, and Gerben Bakker agreed on the growth opportunity for control house applications in data centers, noting Hubbell's PCX business already serves this and sees best practices to be shared with the utility substation side, though current focus is on serving utility customers.

Nigel Coe asked if the anticipated $20 million Q2 headwind implies flat to slightly down year-over-year EPS. He also questioned the company's view on price elasticity, customer feedback, the use of surcharges, and whether tariffs create a share gain opportunity from imported products.

Answer

EVP & CFO Bill Sperry confirmed that Q2 EPS would be in a comparable range year-over-year under that scenario. CEO Gerben Bakker and Sperry explained that price elasticity is factored into the guide, with less expected from broad-based commodity inflation and more from targeted tariffs. They prefer price increases over surcharges to cover all inflation types. Bakker noted that while there are pockets of advantage, Hubbell is not broadly advantaged or disadvantaged versus peers regarding tariffs.

Nigel Coe followed up on the topic of tariffs, asking for confirmation if a mid-teens percentage for COGS from Mexico was accurate. He also questioned the record 20% margin in the Electrical segment, asking if it was sustainable for 2025.

Answer

CFO William Sperry confirmed that a mid-teens percentage for COGS from Mexico is 'in the right ballpark.' Regarding Electrical margins, Sperry stated there was nothing unusual in the Q4 performance, attributing the strength to the divestiture of lower-margin lighting businesses and growth in high-margin areas like data centers. CEO Gerben Bakker added that a favorable product mix also contributed, and both executives expressed confidence in continued margin expansion for the segment.

Sought confirmation on the approximate percentage of COGS from Mexico and questioned the drivers behind the strong Q4 electrical segment margins, asking if a 20% margin is sustainable for the full year 2025.

Answer

The company confirmed that a mid-teens percentage for Mexico COGS is in the right ballpark. They stated there was nothing unusual in the Q4 electrical margin performance, attributing it to the divestiture of lower-margin lighting businesses and strong performance in high-margin areas like data centers and renewables. They believe the segment has an opportunity for continued margin expansion.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC sought more precision on the percentage of COGS from Mexico and questioned the drivers of the record 20% operating margin in the Electrical segment, asking if this performance was sustainable for 2025.

Answer

CFO Bill Sperry confirmed that a mid-teens percentage for Mexico COGS was 'in the right ballpark.' Regarding electrical margins, Sperry attributed the strength to the exit of lower-margin lighting businesses, strong growth in high-margin areas like data centers and renewables, and good operational drop-through, suggesting no mix pullback is expected in 2025. CEO Gerben Bakker added that a favorable product mix also contributed to the quarterly performance.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC sought to confirm the core utility components organic growth ex-telecom, asked about end-customer spending, and questioned the sustainability of the quarter's lower SG&A expenses.

Answer

CEO Gerben Bakker confirmed Coe's math on organic growth was correct and that end-market demand remains in the mid-single digits. CFO William Sperry affirmed that the current SG&A level is sustainable, attributing the year-over-year change to elevated investments in the prior year and recent cost management actions.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research sought confirmation on the data center backlog target of $0.9 billion for the end of the year, ensuring it aligns with expectations for nice growth in 2026 and $1.1 billion in revenues for the current year. He also questioned the confidence in achieving a clean slate for 2026 residential inventory, given incredibly weak movement numbers.

Answer

CEO David Gitlin clarified that the revenue target for the current year is $1 billion, not $1.1 billion. He confirmed the target of ending the year with a data center backlog of around $900 million for 2026 deliveries, up from $700 million for 2025. Regarding residential inventory, he expressed confidence that despite weak movement (down 30% in October, mid-20% for Nov/Dec), field inventory levels will be right-sized to 2018 levels by January, avoiding further destocking headwinds.

Nigel Coe questioned Carrier's data center backlog, confirming the target for 2026 growth and the $1 billion revenue expectation for the current year. He also asked about the confidence in achieving a clean slate for CSA residential channel inventory by 2026, given weak movement numbers, and the risk of inventory shortages with normalized spring demand.

Answer

CEO David Gitlin clarified that the data center revenue target for the current year is $1 billion. He confirmed Carrier is on track to end the year with a backlog of around $900 million for 2026 deliveries, up from $700 million for 2025, positioning for continued growth. Regarding CSA residential, Mr. Gitlin expressed confidence in starting 2026 with right-sized field inventory, assuming weak movement continues through Q4. He acknowledged the short-cycle nature of the business and the potential for sudden swings, but stated Carrier is currently erring on the side of conservatism in its forecasting.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC requested a deeper dive into the Q3 financial framework, asking for an explanation of the flat margin forecast and the impact of the residential decline on Americas margins. He also sought clarification on the mechanics of reaching the $0.80 Q3 EPS guidance, including any below-the-line items.

Answer

SVP & CFO Patrick Goris detailed the Q3 outlook, explaining that the benefit of organic growth is offset by unfavorable mix from lower residential sales. He clarified that the $0.80 EPS estimate is based on $6 billion in sales, flat year-over-year operating profit, and a 24% effective tax rate. He projected CSA margins would be down about 200 basis points year-over-year in Q3 due to the residential mix.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research inquired about the financial impact of tariffs, specifically asking for the gross impact versus the net $300 million that will be offset by pricing.

Answer

CEO David Gitlin stated that the company has effectively offset the majority of tariff impacts through supply chain and productivity actions. He clarified that Carrier views the remaining exposure as the $300 million that requires price increases, which have already been implemented in the channel.

Nigel Coe sought clarification on whether the forecasted 10% of 410A refrigerant units would all be sold in Q1 and asked for more context on the strong 15% sales 'movement' from distributors to dealers in the residential channel.

Answer

CFO Patrick Goris confirmed the expectation that the remaining 410A residential units would be flushed out of the channel in Q1. CEO David Gitlin attributed the strong movement to underlying demand and market share gains of about 100 basis points in 2024, adding that while they have excellent visibility into distributor inventory, dealer-level inventory is typically minimal.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research requested more detail on the moving parts within the Q4 guidance, asking for the expected adjusted operating margin and its breakdown by segment. He also asked about the share buyback plan, specifically if it was already underway and whether it would involve open market purchases or an Accelerated Share Repurchase (ASR) program.

Answer

Patrick Goris, CFO, clarified that the overall Q4 adjusted operating margin is expected to be around 12.5%, with HVAC margins near 15-15.5% and Refrigeration around 13%. He noted the margin impact from Viessmann in Q4 would be roughly neutral to the total company. On capital allocation, Goris confirmed a $400 million buyback occurred in Q3, with a plan for about $1 billion total for the year. He stated they are considering both open market purchases and an ASR, and could do more than $1 billion this year depending on the timing of divestiture proceeds.

Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research inquired about the implied year-over-year decline in Energy and Sustainability Solutions (ESS) margins for Q4, confirming the math, and whether the Solstice spin-off materially impacts this. He also asked if Q3 pressures were offset by government settlements and if the mix shift is expected to normalize in 1H next year.

Answer

CFO Mike Stepniak highlighted strong LNG performance and project activity, attributing Q4 margin softness to mix and catalyst push-outs, expecting normalization in 2026. VP of Investor Relations Sean Meakim clarified that Q4 seasonality was impacted by an unusually strong Q2. Chairman and CEO Vimal Kapur reinforced expectations for ESS margin expansion in 2026, citing strong project orders and a transitionary effect on catalyst volume.

Nigel Coe inquired about the implied year-over-year decline in fourth-quarter margins for the Energy and Sustainability Solutions (ESS) segment, seeking confirmation of the calculation and the material impact of the Solsys Advanced Materials spin-off. He also asked about any Q3 pressures and the expected mix shift in the first half of next year.

Answer

Mike Stepniak, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, highlighted strong performance in LNG and project activity but noted transitory softness in Q4 ESS margins due to mix and catalyst push-outs. He expects ESS margins to normalize in 2026. Vimal Kapur, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, reinforced expectations for ESS margin expansion in 2026, attributing current issues to transitional effects on catalyst volume.

Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research, LLC questioned the nature of delayed energy projects, asking if they were mainly clean energy or general process projects. He also sought clarity on why tariff-related inflation was a more significant headwind for Aero margins now compared to April.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Vimal Kapur clarified that while LNG projects remain strong, sustainable fuels projects are the most impacted by delays, though recent policy clarification should help. SVP & CFO Mike Stepniak explained that passing on tariff costs in Aerospace is slower due to long-term OE contracts, unlike in short-cycle businesses, creating a temporary lag between cost incurrence and price realization.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC sought details on the delayed energy projects, asking if they were specific to clean energy, and questioned the source of additional inflationary pressures in Aerospace given improving tariff news. He also inquired about the impact of R&D tax expensing changes.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Vimal Kapur specified that sustainable fuels projects were most impacted by delays, while LNG remains strong. SVP & CFO Mike Stepniak explained the Aerospace margin pressure is due to a time lag in passing on tariff costs in long-term OE contracts. Regarding the tax change, he confirmed it is a net positive and a tailwind for 2026 and 2027, with more details to be provided later.

Nigel Coe inquired about the specifics of the $500 million tariff impact, including Honeywell's offset strategies, and questioned whether the guidance's macro contingency was a top-down assumption or based on observed customer behavior.

Answer

CEO Vimal Kapur explained that the 'local-for-local' strategy is foundational to mitigating tariffs, with countermeasures including pricing and direct material productivity. CFO Mike Stepniak clarified the contingency is a top-down, prudent view for the second half, as Q1 and April orders remained strong, noting it's not based on any specific data suggesting a demand drop.

Nigel Coe sought to confirm the math behind the 2025 margin guidance, specifically the level of M&A dilution in Aerospace versus expansion in other segments. He also asked about the scale of R&D investment in 2025 and the company's appetite for capital allocation, including M&A, during the separation process.

Answer

Incoming CFO Mike Stepniak confirmed the margin math was 'directionally correct' and dependent on short-cycle product growth. CEO Vimal Kapur affirmed a 'material increase' in R&D spending for 2025. On capital allocation, he reiterated the plan for a $3 billion share buyback and stated that Honeywell will remain active in the M&A market across all segments, with Mr. Stepniak adding that the balance sheet has significant capacity.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC inquired about the impact of the Boeing strike on the Q4 outlook and requested a breakdown of the 8% commercial aftermarket growth between air transport (ATR) and business jets (bizjet). He also asked about the revenue size of the PPE business and the monetization timeline for Quantinuum.

Answer

CEO Vimal Kapur confirmed there is no anticipated revenue impact from the Boeing strike in Q4, as the company is coordinating shipments. CFO Gregory Lewis specified that commercial aftermarket growth was in the double digits for ATR and single digits for BGA. He also stated that the PPE business has revenues of approximately $1.1 billion. Vimal Kapur added that the plan to monetize Quantinuum remains, with the timing dependent on achieving key technical and commercial milestones.

Nigel Coe asked for an update on the "plank reconfiguration" and its expected completion, the reasons for the Q4 margin guidance reduction (tariff inflation, EMEA mix, fixed cost investments), and whether 2026 incremental margins could exceed the 30-35% range due to tariff mitigation.

Answer

CFO David Fallon attributed half of the Q4 margin guidance reduction to incremental tariffs and the other half to accelerated fixed cost investments. He reiterated the 30-35% incremental margin target for any given year and expects tariffs to be materially offset by Q1 2026, potentially becoming a tailwind, but refrained from giving specific 2026 incremental numbers.

Nigel Coe asked for an update on Vertiv's Q3 margin performance, the 'plank reconfiguration' for tariff mitigation, the 100 basis point reduction in Q4 margin guidance (attributing it to tariffs and fixed cost investments), and whether 2026 incremental margins could exceed the 30-35% range due to tariff mitigation.

Answer

David Fallon, CFO of Vertiv, explained that the Q4 margin guidance reduction was split between incremental tariffs and accelerated fixed cost investments. He reiterated the 30-35% incremental margin target for 2026, anticipating tariffs to be materially offset by Q1 2026, potentially becoming a tailwind. He noted that no specific factors in 2026 would differentiate incrementals from other years.

Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research, LLC inquired about Vertiv's win rates, particularly for AI infrastructure, and whether there has been a change in how hyperscalers procure equipment, such as a shift to a system-wide approach.

Answer

CEO Giordano Albertazzi stated that aggregate win rates have shown good stability. He also noted no significant changes in hyperscaler procurement methods, explaining that while approaches vary by customer, the fundamental processes of sourcing infrastructure components and solutions remain consistent.

Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research, LLC inquired about Vertiv's win rates, particularly for AI infrastructure, and whether there have been any changes in how hyperscalers procure equipment, such as a shift to a system-wide approach.

Answer

CEO Giordano Albertazzi reported that overall win rates have remained stable, which he views as a positive sign given the strong pipeline growth. He added that there have been no significant shifts in procurement methods by hyperscalers, as different customers maintain distinct design and sourcing philosophies.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research sought to confirm that the net tariff impact would be most significant in Q2 and asked if the pursuit of a higher credit rating was driven by requirements from large data center customers.

Answer

CFO David Fallon confirmed that Q2 would see the highest net tariff impact, with mitigation improving throughout the year. Both Fallon and CEO Giordano Albertazzi stated that while an investment-grade rating is beneficial for customer perception, it is not a critical requirement for contracting, as Vertiv's financial strength is already well-recognized.

Nigel Coe questioned the reduction in the EMEA growth outlook from high-teens to high-single digits since November and asked about capital deployment plans, specifically the timing for potential share buybacks.

Answer

CEO Giordano Albertazzi attributed the revised EMEA outlook to project timelines shifting into 2025 due to regulatory factors and slower decision-making. On capital deployment, he reaffirmed the company's focus on its M&A pipeline while maintaining discipline, and stated that Vertiv will continue to take an 'opportunistic' approach to its share repurchase program.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research sought to clarify if the content per megawatt opportunity had increased by another $0.5 million and asked if the 2025 growth outlook was primarily driven by existing backlog or assumptions about future orders.

Answer

CEO Giordano Albertazzi clarified that his comment on the $0.5 million increase was reaffirming the existing move to a $3.0-$3.5 million TAM per megawatt for AI, not a new increase. Regarding 2025, he explained the outlook is based on a combination of the encouraging existing backlog and the strong potential of the future pipeline, evaluated relative to historical booking and shipping dynamics.

Nigel Coe asked for clarification on Lennox's high inventory levels, specifically if the bulk was within its captive distribution network, and what this implied for broader industry destocking. He also sought perspective on the repair-versus-replace dynamic, questioning if it was driven by consumer confidence, A2L refrigerant dynamics, price, or a combination.

Answer

CEO Alok Maskara confirmed that most of the high inventory is within Lennox's direct-to-contractor network, due to being 'cautious and optimistic,' and reiterated the expectation for destocking to be over by Q2 next year. He attributed the repair-versus-replace trend primarily to dealer hesitation to sell new A2L products due to canister shortages and training delays, rather than just consumer confidence or price. CFO Michael Quenzer added that homeowners with low interest rates might defer system investments if they plan to move.

Nigel Coe asked for clarification on Lennox's high inventory levels, whether they are concentrated in the captive distribution network, and if they include emergency replacement inventory, suggesting a prolonged destocking period. He also sought insight into the drivers behind the current repair-versus-replace dynamic, including consumer confidence, A2L refrigerant transition, and pricing.

Answer

CEO Alok Maskara confirmed that inventory is primarily at the direct-to-contractor level, higher than desired, and expects normalization by Q2 next year. He attributed the repair-versus-replace trend mainly to contractor hesitation regarding A2L conversion due to canister shortages and training, alongside impacts from consumer confidence and interest rates. CFO Michael Quenzer added that homeowners with low interest rates might delay new system investments.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC followed up on the direct versus indirect channel performance, questioning why destocking wasn't more pronounced in the two-step channel. He also asked for more color on the significant sequential increase in inventory during Q2.

Answer

CEO Alok Maskara suggested not to read too much into the channel data due to Lennox's smaller two-step exposure, but noted distributors may be maintaining high inventory levels amid uncertainty, with some destocking potentially bleeding into Q3. He explained the inventory build was a deliberate strategy to ensure product availability during the refrigerant transition and address historical dealer complaints, and that levels will be brought down in the second half.

Nigel Coe sought guidance on the expected Q2 EPS as a percentage of the full year and asked about the impact of potential A2L (R-454B) refrigerant shortages on the business.

Answer

CFO Michael Quenzer avoided specific quarterly EPS guidance but reiterated that revenue seasonality is expected to be around 45% in the first half and 55% in the second, implying roughly flat revenue for Q2. CEO Alok Maskara addressed the refrigerant issue, stating the shortage is in retail service canisters, not bulk supply for production, and he expects the industry-wide issue to normalize by the end of Q2.

Nigel Coe asked for quantification of the Saltillo factory's contribution to the BCS volume guidance and for an estimate of the industry-wide excess R-410A units shipped in 2024.

Answer

CFO Michael Quenzer specified that 1-2 percentage points of the mid-single-digit BCS volume growth guidance is from share gains related to the new factory. CEO Alok Maskara estimated the industry-wide R-410A prebuy was in the 300k-600k unit range and clarified that Lennox's own inventory increase was primarily a strategic build for its commercial emergency replacement program.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research asked for feedback from contractors on the A2L transition and whether price hikes would incentivize Q4 prebuys. He also questioned if higher system costs would shift the repair vs. replace dynamic, and asked for the TAM of the commercial emergency replacement market.

Answer

CEO Alok Maskara described contractor sentiment as mixed but accepting of the necessary A2L transition, acknowledging a risk of Q4 prebuy. He believes the repair vs. replace dynamic is driven by unit age and won't shift significantly in 2025 but could in future years as R-410A costs rise. He did not size the emergency replacement TAM but noted it's a significant opportunity as Lennox is underweight in that area compared to the industry.

Nigel Coe asked about the current product mix of Prolec GE, particularly regarding low and medium voltage offerings and industrial verticals, and the future potential for these segments, including required capacity investments.

Answer

CEO Scott Strazik explained that Prolec GE's investments are peaking in 2026 to support 2028 revenue, with the largest proportion of business in higher voltage power generation. He clarified excitement for low/medium voltage is in integrated solutions for electro-intensive industries and data centers, not residential. CFO Ken Parks noted that current JV arrangements restrict international sales of these products, highlighting a future revenue synergy opportunity post-acquisition.

Nigel Coe inquired about the potential in low and medium voltage segments and industrial verticals for Prolec GE, asking for details on the current mix, future projections, and required capacity investments.

Answer

CEO Scott Strazik stated that Prolec GE's CapEx will peak in 2026 to support the 2028 revenue stream, with the largest proportion of business in higher voltage power generation. He clarified excitement for integrated solutions with PowerGen and electro-intensive industries/data centers, not core residential low voltage. CFO Ken Parks added that full ownership allows leveraging GE Vernova's global footprint for low to medium voltage products outside North America, which were previously restricted.

Nigel Coe requested more detail on the services business, including transactional versus CSA performance, and specifically asked about the growth opportunity and scalability for aeroderivative turbines.

Answer

CEO Scott Strazik highlighted that aeroderivatives are a key solution for customers needing expedited 'bridge power,' with strong global demand. He noted the services backlog grew by approximately $1 billion in Q2, largely from new CSA orders. He also stated that the prior forecast for 50% growth in upgrades by the decade's end is now likely a 'floor,' with a formal update to come after Q3 strategy reviews.

Nigel Coe requested more detail on the services business, including transactional versus CSA performance, and specifically asked about the growth opportunity and scaling ability for aeroderivative turbines.

Answer

CEO Scott Strazik highlighted strong demand for aeroderivatives as a fast-to-commission 'bridge power' solution for customers needing expedited power. He noted the services backlog grew by approximately $1 billion in Q2, largely from new orders feeding the CSA book. He also stated that the prior forecast for 50% growth in upgrades by the end of the decade is now likely a 'floor' given current market strength.

Nigel Coe followed up on the data center topic, asking for more perspective on the opportunity pipeline and the key catalysts, such as permitting or financing, needed to convert slot reservations into firm orders.

Answer

CEO Scott Strazik reiterated that about one-third of the 21 GW in reservations is for data centers, with the remainder driven by broader electrification and grid resiliency. He clarified the primary gate to converting reservations into orders is the customer finalizing its EPC contract and site selection, rather than financing.

Nigel Coe asked about any changes in price fatigue and repair activity among contractors, given previous comments, and if the environment still seems healthy despite significant price increases. He also inquired about the profit bridge on page 12, specifically the $11 million difference between the $48 million from price, volume, and net M&A and the $37 million from price, asking if it was primarily due to mix contribution.

Answer

CEO John Stauch acknowledged cumulative price increases and emphasized the need to ensure products offer the highest quality, reliability, and value propositions, supported by innovation and dealer enablement, to justify current price points. CFO Bob Fishman confirmed that the $11 million difference was primarily due to a good mix contribution, driven by sales growth, volume, and the focus on 'quad one' customers.

Nigel Coe followed up on previous comments regarding price fatigue and increased repair activity among contractors, asking if there had been any change in these trends, especially given seemingly healthy price increases for next year. He also asked for clarification on the profit bridge, specifically the $11 million difference between the $48 million from price, volume, and net M&A, and the $37 million from price, inquiring if a significant mix contribution was a factor.

Answer

CEO John Stauch acknowledged the cumulative price increases over recent years and emphasized the importance of ensuring product quality, reliability, and value propositions to support dealers and consumers, especially given rising costs. He stressed the need for innovation and NPI to maintain value. CFO Bob Fishman confirmed that a good mix contribution was indeed a factor in the profit bridge, noting that sales growth and volume, particularly with the focus on 'quad one' customers, tend to drive beneficial mix.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC questioned the confidence behind the Q3 growth inflections guided for the Flow and commercial Water Solutions segments. He also probed the durability of pool pricing, asking about the risk of rollbacks or increased promotions and the outlook for a 'normal' pricing environment in 2026.

Answer

President and CEO John L. Stauch explained that the Q3 guidance reflects easier year-over-year comparisons and sequential trends rather than a major underlying shift in demand. On pool pricing, he acknowledged the current profit dynamic favors dealers but stated Pentair's strategy is to use targeted incentives to drive high-value content and rebalance channel profitability, while hoping for a return to a more normal inflationary environment.

Nigel Coe asked for confirmation that recent price actions are permanent increases, not temporary surcharges, and inquired about capital allocation plans for the remainder of the year given the company's balance sheet strength.

Answer

CEO John Stauch confirmed the price increases are regular actions and not designed to be reversed if tariffs de-escalate. CFO Bob Fishman reiterated the company's plan to continue its balanced capital allocation strategy, which includes a mix of debt paydown, share repurchases, dividend increases, and potential bolt-on M&A.

Nigel Coe asked about the mechanics of implementing tariff-related price increases, such as whether it would be a surcharge or a standard increase. He also inquired which business segment has the most exposure to Mexico and China. Finally, he sought to confirm if the guided $80 million in productivity savings is a net figure.

Answer

President and CEO John Stauch explained that price increases are typically implemented with 30-60 day notice periods and identified the Water Solutions segment as having the most exposure to manufacturing in Mexico. He also confirmed that the $80 million productivity savings target for 2025 is a net figure, after accounting for strategic growth investments being made primarily in the Water Solutions and Pool segments.

Nigel Coe asked for clarification on the expected step-down in SG&A dollars in the second half compared to Q2, the impact of the 53rd week on SG&A, and how the non-residential market might evolve into 2026 given a weakening economy versus mega-projects like data centers.

Answer

Robyn Bradbury (CFO) confirmed that SG&A dollars are expected to step down in the second half due to cost-out actions and lower volumes, and estimated the 53rd week's EBITDA impact at $8 million-$10 million. Mark Witkowski (CEO) noted that the non-residential market has puts and takes by project type and geography, with strong highway/street work and data center activity cushioning softer commercial/retail development, expecting it to flatten out in the near term without significant upside or downside into 2026.

Nigel Coe asked for management's outlook on the non-residential market heading into 2026, considering the conflicting forces of a weakening economy versus mega-projects like data centers.

Answer

CEO Mark Witkowski described the non-residential market as having many puts and takes, with strong highway/street work and data center activity offsetting softer commercial/retail development. He expects it to flatten out in the near term, with no significant upside or downside.

Nigel Coe questioned the drivers of the increase in SG&A equity compensation and asked if the full-year EBITDA margin expansion would be primarily driven by gross margin. He also inquired about the reasons for the significant inventory build during Q1.

Answer

CFO Robyn Bradbury clarified the equity comp increase reflects a more normalized run rate post-IPO. CEO Mark Witkowski confirmed that while SG&A optimization will contribute, gross margin initiatives are the primary driver for EBITDA expansion. He added that the Q1 inventory build was intentional, reflecting confidence in H1 volume and a strategic move to mitigate potential tariff-related price increases.

Nigel Coe asked how the M&A cultivation process might change with Steve LeClair's transition to Executive Chair. He also inquired about the pipeline for large projects, particularly those funded by the IIJA, and whether their margin profile differs from standard MRO work.

Answer

CEO Steve LeClair stated he will continue to support M&A by leveraging his relationships in his new role as Executive Chair. He noted that IIJA funds are beginning to flow to larger, long-term treatment plant projects where Core & Main's early involvement in design-build can lead to positive margins. He also highlighted strong traction in data center projects.

Nigel Coe questioned what drove the sales upside in Q3 compared to expectations, the extent to which delayed Q2 projects contributed, and the pricing outlook for 2025, specifically for fire protection and PVC pipe.

Answer

CFO Mark Witkowski explained that Q3 results were slightly better than internal expectations due to a favorable construction cycle and some release of projects deferred from Q2. He anticipates a neutral pricing environment in 2025, suggesting that steel pipe price declines have bottomed and PVC pipe pricing has been relatively stable.

Nigel Coe asked for the second-half pricing outlook, clarification on whether gross margins would grow sequentially from Q2, and details on the SG&A rate for recent acquisitions and the target for them once fully absorbed.

Answer

CFO Mark Witkowski projected stable sequential pricing for the rest of the year and confirmed that gross margins are expected to grow sequentially from the Q2 base. He explained that recent acquisitions had higher SG&A but were accretive on gross margin, with a focus on scaling them to drive EBITDA synergies rather than hitting a specific initial SG&A rate.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research questioned if the higher CapEx forecast of 2.5% of sales represents a medium-term shift and asked for the expected cash restructuring costs in fiscal 2026. He also sought to confirm the assumed profile of the industrial recovery, with a flat first half followed by growth.

Answer

EVP & CFO Todd Leombruno clarified that the higher CapEx is a 'one-off' for specific projects, not a new run rate. He projected restructuring costs of approximately $70 million for fiscal 2026, up from $50 million in 2025. He also confirmed that the industrial forecast assumes a roughly flat first half, with growth accelerating in the second half of the year.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC asked if the higher FY26 CapEx guidance represented a medium-term shift and requested details on expected cash restructuring costs. He also sought to confirm the assumed profile of the industrial recovery, with a flat first half and growth in the second half.

Answer

EVP & CFO Todd Leombruno clarified that the higher CapEx is for specific projects in North America and should be seen as a one-off, not a new run rate. He stated that restructuring for FY26 is forecasted at approximately $70 million, up from $50 million in FY25. He also confirmed that the industrial recovery profile is modeled as roughly flat in the first half with growth accelerating in the second half.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research asked for the rationale behind classifying HVAC and semiconductor as long-cycle businesses and inquired about the current tone from customers. He also questioned how much of the recent SG&A reduction is structural versus temporary.

Answer

CEO Jenny Parmentier explained that HVAC and semi are considered long-cycle due to their connection to secular trends and the long-term order visibility they provide. She reiterated that distributor sentiment is very positive. CFO Todd Leombruno asserted that nearly all of the SG&A reduction is structural and does not anticipate a significant step-up in costs.

Nigel Coe asked for clarification on the financial impact of the pending divestiture, including revenue and EBITDA, and questioned the rationale for not adjusting out the $0.26 'other expense' headwind related to currency volatility.

Answer

CFO Todd Leombruno detailed the divestiture impact as approximately $300 million in annual sales with a mid-teens EBITDA margin, all from the North American industrial business. He explained that the 'other expense' headwind, while larger than usual due to currency rate volatility, was not adjusted out of earnings because the company chose not to, and it is not expected to recur in subsequent quarters.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC inquired about the drivers for the wide second-half margin range for the AMC segment. He also asked for more detail on the resolution of the rare earth magnet sourcing issue and the financial guardrails and accounting treatment of the new accounts receivable facility.

Answer

CFO Robert Rehard explained the AMC margin ramp in the second half, particularly Q4, is driven by a higher shippable backlog, better mix, and catching up on higher-margin rare earth product deliveries. CEO Louis Pinkham detailed the rare earth mitigation efforts, including working with new suppliers and shifting some assembly to China, stating they are confident in resolving the issue for the year. Rehard clarified the AR facility is annually renewable, saves about 150 basis points in interest costs, and its associated costs are recorded in SG&A but adjusted out for EBITDA calculations.

Nigel Coe asked about potential hidden tariff pressures on Q2 margins for the IPS and AMC segments. He also inquired about competitive dynamics, asking where Regal Rexnord faces Asian competitors beyond HVAC motors. In a follow-up, he sought details on the $100 million humanoid robot opportunity, including its geographic focus and supply chain.

Answer

CFO Robert Rehard clarified that Q2 margins are not expected to be negatively impacted by tariffs, attributing shifts to business mix, and noted a potential near-term benefit from pricing actions preceding cost recognition. CEO Louis Pinkham identified competitive opportunities against some Asian rivals in the AMC segment. Regarding humanoids, Pinkham stated the opportunity is global, not primarily China-based, and highlighted that recent wins totaling over $20 million annually are North American-centric and will not be supplied from China.

Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research asked about the visibility for improvement in non-U.S. commercial markets within PES, the specific drivers of FX margin pressure, and whether short-cycle business was improving in AMC's January orders.

Answer

CEO Louis Pinkham linked PES general commercial recovery to the ISM, seeing no strength yet in Europe or China. He confirmed short-cycle factory automation orders in AMC showed strength. CFO Rob Rehard explained that FX pressure stems from unfavorable settlement of Mexican Peso hedges that were layered in over the past six quarters, a headwind expected to persist in 2025 before potentially becoming a benefit in 2026.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research requested clarification on the '$1 billion free cash flow exit rate' for 2025, details on commercial market pressures in Europe and China, and whether strong IPS orders signal strength into 2025.

Answer

CFO Rob Rehard explained the exit rate refers to an annualized Q4 2025 free cash flow run-rate. CEO Louis Pinkham described ongoing pressure in European and Chinese commercial markets with little improvement expected in 2025. He also clarified that while strong long-cycle orders were more AMC-centric, the IPS segment continues to outperform its markets due to acquisition-related scale and scope benefits.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research questioned the drivers behind the strong mid-teens growth in the Commercial & Residential vertical within Systems Protection, especially given the flat full-year guidance. He also asked for an update on the performance and backlog of the Tracte acquisition.

Answer

CEO Beth Wozniak attributed the Commercial & Resi strength to healthy performance through distribution channels and some enclosures being used in data center applications, but maintained a cautious full-year outlook. She confirmed the Tracte business is growing at double-digits, ahead of expectations, driven by both utility and data center demand, including new gray space opportunities, which contributed to the raised guidance.

Nigel Coe sought to reconcile the guidance uplift with the tariff impact, questioning the price/volume assumptions. He also challenged the $0.05 EPS accretion from Avail and asked for the implied order growth rate for Data Solutions.

Answer

CEO Beth Wozniak clarified the guidance uplift was primarily driven by stronger orders and backlog, not just a price/volume shift. CFO Gary Corona reiterated that the $0.05 EPS from Avail is a net number after interest expense and that the company is just beginning its integration. In response to the Data Solutions question, Beth Wozniak confirmed that order growth was "very strong" in Q1 on top of strong growth in the prior year's Q1, without providing a specific percentage.

Nigel Coe sought to delineate the growth expectations between the infrastructure vertical and the rest of the portfolio, confirming if non-infrastructure segments were planned to be flat to low-single-digits. He also asked for more detail on the growth outlook for the Trachte acquisition.

Answer

Chair and CEO Beth Wozniak confirmed that while infrastructure is the strongest driver with expected low-double-digit growth, the outlook also calls for low-to-mid-single-digit growth in industrial and low-single-digit growth in commercial. Regarding Trachte, she described it as a new growth platform in control buildings with a strong, growing backlog and applications across utilities, data centers, and energy storage, positioning it as a strong contributor within the broader infrastructure vertical.

Nigel Coe asked for a breakdown of the Q4 organic growth guidance between the two segments and inquired about the phasing of shipments in Data Solutions. He also questioned the M&A pipeline and capital deployment strategy following the Thermal Management divestiture.

Answer

CFO Sara Zawoyski confirmed both segments are expected to grow within the 1-3% organic range in Q4 and attributed Q3-to-Q4 seasonality primarily to the EFS segment. CEO Beth Wozniak described the M&A pipeline as "very robust," stating that while growth is the priority, the company has the capacity for a more sizable deal in 2025 but will remain disciplined on valuation.

Nigel Coe asked for details on the distribution of the second-half price increase and questioned what had changed in the market to solidify the conservative volume outlook since April.

Answer

CFO Vikram Kini stated the 3.5-4% pricing is split evenly between base and tariff-related actions and is spread equitably across regions, with the exception of a tighter environment in China. CEO Vicente Reynal explained they are maintaining a precautionary volume stance due to ongoing tariff uncertainty, which they believe is a key factor holding back some customer decisions.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research sought to confirm the expected EBITDA and EPS phasing for the first half of 2025. He also asked for perspective on the equipment sales cycle, noting that strong 6% aftermarket growth implied a steep, recessionary-like decline in equipment revenue.

Answer

CFO Vik Kini confirmed that the previously guided first-half/second-half earnings split remains in line with expectations. CEO Vicente Reynal addressed the equipment question by highlighting the company's focus on growing recurring revenue and the positive organic order momentum for compressors, blowers, and vacuums. He stated the company continues to take market share and is not concerned about the underlying health of its core equipment business.

Nigel Coe requested more specific details on the PST segment's margin recovery path to above 30% in 2025 and asked for a breakdown of the 2025 outlook for ILC Dover's Life Science versus Aerospace & Defense businesses.

Answer

CFO Vik Kini projected that PST's Q1 margin would be in the 'upper 20s,' with sequential ramping through the year and a mid-year inflection point. CEO Vicente Reynal reiterated that the Life Sciences business is expected to continue its low-double-digit to high-single-digit growth trajectory, driven by strong end-market exposure to biopharma and gene therapy.

Nigel Coe asked for clarity on the PST segment's outlook for Q4, the M&A contribution, the ILC Dover revenue outlook, and the implication of the different book-to-bill ratios for the reported vs. core PST business.

Answer

CFO Vik Kini confirmed that PST is expected to return to positive organic growth in Q4. He explained the book-to-bill difference in PST was driven by the lumpy, long-cycle space business within ILC Dover, which is a normal pattern for that segment. He also indicated the full-year contribution from ILC Dover is on track with previous guidance.

Nigel Coe inquired about WESCO's guidance, asking for clarification on whether it includes gross margin benefits from potential tariff-related price increases in the second half, the drivers behind strong July sales, and the reasons for the sequential margin decline in the Utility and Broadband Solutions (UBS) segment.

Answer

EVP & CFO David Schulz confirmed the guidance excludes any future tariff impacts on sales or margins. Chairman, President & CEO John Engel attributed the strong July start to accelerating momentum across all business units, particularly the return to growth in UBS. Schulz explained the UBS margin dip was due to customer mix and higher SG&A from annual merit increases, with Engel adding that returning sales growth will drive significant operating leverage and margin expansion.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research requested more detail on the supplier price increases WESCO has seen, whether suppliers are using surcharges, and the specific drivers of weakness in the utility vertical.

Answer

John Engel, Chairman, President and CEO, detailed that while Q1 price increase notifications were down, the number of notifications in Q2-to-date is up 150% year-over-year, with average increases moving from mid-single to high-single digits. He noted WESCO pushes suppliers to build costs into prices rather than use surcharges. David Schulz, EVP and CFO, added that utility softness is due to customer destocking and project delays but reaffirmed confidence in a second-half recovery driven by customer activity and new contract wins.

Nigel Coe asked about the drivers of mid-single-digit growth in October, specifically any impact from storms, and the implications of the UBS segment's backlog erosion for 2025. He also inquired about large industrial projects and customer sentiment related to policy uncertainty around the election.

Answer

CFO David Schulz explained that storm impact was neutral in Q3 but led to some delayed EES shipments being recognized in October. He noted the UBS backlog is not being replenished at the current rate but views this as temporary. CEO John Engel added that large, multiyear contracts are not fully reflected in the backlog at once and expressed confidence in the utility market's long-term secular growth. He also suggested the election outcome would provide clarity for industrial customers' investment priorities.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC asked for quantification of the revenue pull-ahead from Q3 into Q2 for the EFS and Mobility Technologies segments. He also sought details on Invenco's projected 2025 revenue, its project funnel, and the current recurring revenue base for Vontier as a whole.

Answer

CFO Anshooman Aga confirmed a combined revenue pull-ahead of $15 million to $20 million, primarily due to a planned ERP go-live and factory maintenance. He projected Invenco's 2025 revenue to be approximately $625 million to $630 million and guided for mid-to-high single-digit growth next year despite difficult comparisons. Aga stated that recurring revenue is about 40% for the Mobility Technologies segment and in the low thirties for Vontier overall. CEO Mark Morelli added that these results are proof points for the company's connected mobility strategy.

Nigel Coe sought to understand the Q1 to Q2 EPS bridge, questioning why Q2 EPS wasn't guided significantly higher given the Matco Expo shift. He also pointed out a potential discrepancy between the net interest expense guidance and the modest $75 million share buyback placeholder, asking if it implied full cash flow deployment.

Answer

CFO Anshooman Aga explained that while Q2 sales will be higher, operating profit margins are expected to be slightly down versus Q1 due to product mix, including promotional pricing at the Matco Expo. On the second point, he clarified the interest guidance reflects the current debt stack and recent refinancing, while the $75 million buyback is a placeholder, and any further cash deployment represents potential upside not yet factored into guidance.

Nigel Coe inquired about the segment-level breakdown for the Q4 organic growth guidance and sought details on the significant 20% aftermarket growth within the Environmental & Fueling Solutions (EFS) segment.

Answer

CFO Anshooman Aga provided the Q4 outlook, projecting high single-digit growth for EFS, flattish results for Mobility Technologies, and a mid-single-digit decline for Repair Solutions. CEO Mark Morelli attributed the strong EFS aftermarket performance to an expanded installed base from the EMV cycle, focused VBS and 80/20 initiatives, and new offerings like refurbished circuit boards. He noted the aftermarket business exceeds $200 million in revenue at margins above the fleet average.

Nigel Coe asked about the basis for the contingency built into the second-half guidance, the expected mix of price versus volume, the financial impact of the Matco Expo timing shift, and the assumptions behind the full-year share count guidance given the buyback plans.

Answer

President and CEO Mark Morelli confirmed that Vontier is not currently seeing any demand disruption and that the tariff impact will be managed through countermeasures, including price increases. SVP and CFO Anshooman Aga added that the second-half outlook embeds about 1% growth, driven primarily by price, reflecting caution on volume due to the macro environment. Aga noted the Matco Expo was successful but may have seen some pre-buying. He also clarified that over half of the year's free cash flow is targeted for buybacks, which are typically back-end weighted and are factored into the full-year average share count guidance.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC asked about the specific drivers behind the continued strength in the education and healthcare verticals. He also inquired about the current market conditions in China, particularly around pricing and credit quality.

Answer

Chair & CEO Dave Regnery identified strong activity in higher education as a key driver, noting that universities are using advanced, efficient HVAC systems as a competitive tool to attract students. On China, EVP & CFO Chris Kuehn stated that while the market remains choppy, Trane is now past the one-year anniversary of implementing tighter credit policies, which eases comparisons and supports the company's outlook for a flat full year in the broader Asia segment.

Nigel Coe followed up on the strong residential performance, asking if Trane is gaining market share due to a smoother transition to the new A2L refrigerant compared to competitors. He also requested more detail on the tariff impact, specifically the exposure to China and the sourcing mix of components versus finished products.

Answer

CEO David Regnery cautioned against reading too much into one quarter for residential market share but confirmed that 100% of current shipments are the new 454B product. He noted that since Trane manufactures most of its value-line products in the U.S., unlike competitors who may import from China, the tariffs could become a competitive advantage. CFO Christopher Kuehn confirmed China is the largest tariff exposure. He also highlighted that key commodities like steel, copper, and over 90% of aluminum are sourced from the U.S., potentially lessening their exposure compared to peers.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC asked about the mix of the service business between predictive/connected services and transactional break-fix work, and if there are margin or growth differentials. He also requested details on the BrainBox AI acquisition, including its size and growth profile, and asked about the accounting impact from intangible amortization, both from new deals and the legacy Trane acquisition.

Answer

CEO Dave Regnery stated they don't disclose the service mix but aim to convert all service interactions into long-term agreements, adding there is no significant margin differential. CFO Chris Kuehn revealed the BrainBox AI purchase price was under $300 million and its amortization is part of the ~$0.20 negative EPS impact from FX and M&A in the 2025 guide. Kuehn also explained that the benefit from the legacy Trane amortization step-down in 2025 is fully offset by depreciation from recent CapEx and amortization from other recent acquisitions, resulting in a neutral net impact for the year.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research questioned the timing of the China downturn, asking to gauge how much was elective (credit policy changes) versus market deterioration. He also asked for clarity on the run-rate for corporate expenses, amortization, and interest expense for 2025.

Answer

CEO Dave Regnery estimated the China decline was perhaps 50-50 between market factors and the company's policy change, with the policy change having a significant short-term impact as teams educate customers. CFO Chris Kuehn addressed the financial items, suggesting a ~$300 million run-rate for corporate expense is a good starting point for 2025. He confirmed some amortization will roll off but needs to be netted against recent M&A. For interest expense, he indicated the 2025 figure would likely be in the ballpark of 2024's ~$237 million guidance.

Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research asked about the potential for improved pricing in the Climate & Sustainability Technologies (CST) segment and inquired about any signs of project pushouts or market noise in biopharma.

Answer

President and CEO Richard Tobin explained that CST's margin is currently driven more by mix and productivity than pricing, with strong CO2 systems and data center demand offsetting weakness in other areas. CFO Christopher Woenker added that structural cost actions are also a tailwind. Regarding biopharma, Tobin noted Dover's exposure is more to consumables for in-use equipment, making it less sensitive to new project timing.

Nigel Coe sought to break down the revised top-line guidance into its price and volume components. He also asked if Q1 marked the margin low point for the Pumps & Process Solutions segment and about the outlook for European heat pumps.

Answer

Executive Richard Tobin stated the guidance change was a high-level adjustment, not a detailed price/volume split. He cautioned that PPS margins may not continue to expand from Q1's record level due to mix shifts as other product lines recover. He did confirm a "glimmer of hope" for European heat pumps, with orders improving sequentially.

Nigel Coe inquired whether the potential for tariffs is causing unusual supply chain behavior. He also sought guidance on whether the Clean Energy & Fueling (DCEF) segment could achieve margins over 20% and if Pumps & Process Solutions (DPPS) could reach a 30% margin.

Answer

Executive Richard Tobin stated that Dover does not see any unusual ordering behavior related to tariff concerns, as the company is primarily a proximity manufacturer. Regarding margins, he confirmed the goal for DCEF is to exit the year in excess of 20%. For DPPS, he noted that reaching a 30% margin is dependent on product mix, with strong biopharma performance being a key driver.

Nigel Coe sought to understand the mechanical impact of bottoming capital businesses on the 2025 growth framework and asked for clarification on whether interest income from the ESG divestiture was included in the Q4 guide.

Answer

CEO Richard Tobin directed him to a slide quantifying the headwind from these businesses at ~$300 million, or 4-5% of growth, and confirmed the 2025 framework is a reasonable, but not formal, guide. He affirmed that interest income is included in the updated full-year guidance, helping to offset other softness.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research, LLC sought clarification on whether the 40 basis points of second-half price contribution was an absolute or incremental figure, and asked about the progress and growth impact of improving OTIF in the SIBG segment.

Answer

CEO William Brown clarified the 40 bps is an absolute year-over-year price improvement, contributing to a 70 bps lift for the full year. On service levels, he noted SIBG's OTIF improved to over 85% and is targeting the high 80s by year-end. He reiterated that while hard to quantify, better OTIF implicitly drives growth by reducing customer churn.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research asked about the risk of supply chain disruptions from shippers pausing activity due to tariffs. He also sought confirmation on the 50/50 first-half/second-half EPS split and questioned if tariffs would cause cash flow to be more back-end loaded.

Answer

CEO William Brown stated that 3M has not seen any supply chain disruptions or supplier hesitancy to ship. CFO Anurag Maheshwari confirmed the 50/50 EPS split guidance (excluding net tariff impacts) is correct. He also clarified that he does not expect tariffs to create a material change or a more back-end loaded cadence for free cash flow, noting the company will manage working capital accordingly.

Nigel Coe questioned management's confidence in the 1.9% IPI forecast, asked about the embedded pricing assumption for 2025, and sought clarification on the drivers of the $150 million net productivity gain in the margin bridge.

Answer

CEO William Brown expressed caution regarding the IPI forecast, noting past forecasts were overly optimistic, but stated the company's 2-3% growth guidance is based on a bottoms-up review. He declined to specify a pricing number. CFO Anurag Maheshwari broke down the $150M net productivity, explaining it's net of $100M in stranded costs and $225M in growth investments, which are more than offset by $280M in restructuring benefits and over $400M in gross productivity from operations.

Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research sought clarification on the key drivers behind the 2% net productivity target and asked for more detail on the expected Q4 margin step-down, questioning the math and any below-the-line factors.

Answer

CEO William Brown identified the supply chain as the largest contributor to productivity savings, given it represents about half of the $13 billion cost base. CFO Anurag Maheshwari confirmed the Q4 margin decline is expected and driven by seasonality, lower sequential revenue, factory shutdowns, and the timing of investments. He noted the full-year EPS guidance was raised due to strong productivity momentum, share repurchases, and lower net interest expense.

Nigel Coe inquired about the drivers of margin expansion across segments for 2025, specifically asking for more detail on Automotive margins, and sought clarification on restructuring costs.

Answer

CFO Michael Larsen confirmed that every segment is projected to improve margins in 2025, driven primarily by enterprise initiatives. He highlighted that these initiatives are the key driver for the expected 100 bps improvement in the Automotive segment. He also clarified that the $0.15-$0.20 EPS headwind is split between tax and restructuring, with 80% of the restructuring planned for H1 2025.

Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research asked for clarification on the impact of higher duties in Mexico and sought an outlook for working capital and CapEx into 2025.

Answer

CFO Holden Lewis explained that Mexico and Canada have raised duties on certain products, creating a new cost headwind. For 2025, he projected CapEx would likely be lower, in the $200M to $225M range, as a major hub project completes. CEO Dan Florness added that a long-term CapEx guidepost is around 3% of sales, driven by FMI, distribution, and IT investments.