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Nik Burns

Research Analyst at Jarden Australia Pty Limited

Nik Burns is Head of Energy Research at Jarden Australia Pty Limited, specializing in equity research and investment strategy focused on major energy sector companies. He covers several Australian energy firms, including Woodside (AU:WDS), and has made numerous stock recommendations with a 49% success rate and notable best returns such as a 116% gain on one call. Burns began his career as a reservoir engineer, held analyst and strategic roles at Santos, Woodside, RISC, and served as head of investor relations at Beach Energy before spending nearly six years as an energy and utilities research analyst at UBS Australia; he joined Jarden in late 2020. He holds a combination of technical and financial credentials acquired over a multi-disciplinary career in energy, including significant equities research experience, though specific securities licenses are not publicly detailed.

Nik Burns's questions to WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP (WDS) leadership

Question · H2 2025

Nik Burns inquired about Woodside's dividend policy, noting the consistent 80% payout ratio but lower absolute dividends tracking underlying NPAT. He asked for observations on the 2026 consensus dividend and if Woodside would consider top-ups like special dividends or buybacks.

Answer

CFO Graham Tiver explained that 2026 is a transition year with a major Pluto turnaround and Scarborough coming online. He confirmed the capital management framework allows for flexibility, including special dividends or buybacks, but emphasized the need to assess performance throughout the year.

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Question · H2 2025

Nik Burns asked about the progress of the Louisiana LNG sell-down, Woodside's comfort with the process, and confidence in completing further sell-downs in the first half of the year, especially as Stonepeak's capital carry concludes. He also inquired about Woodside's observations on the 2026 consensus dividend being lower than the 2025 final dividend and the company's flexibility to potentially top up dividends if additional Louisiana LNG equity sell-downs are completed.

Answer

Meg O'Neill (CEO and Managing Director, Woodside Energy Group) expressed satisfaction with the Louisiana LNG sell-down process, highlighting that Stonepeak and Williams' participation has already reduced Woodside's capital commitment to $9.9 billion (57% of total CapEx). She emphasized a disciplined approach prioritizing value over speed, noting strong interest from strategic partners. Graham Tiver (CFO, Woodside Energy Group) added that Woodside's strong balance sheet and liquidity provide ample time to secure the right long-term partners at fair value. Regarding the 2026 dividend, Graham Tiver explained that it is a transition year with a major Pluto turnaround and Scarborough coming online in Q4. He confirmed that the capital management framework allows for flexibility, including special dividends or buybacks, but the company will assess production, prices, and overall business performance throughout the year before making a determination.

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Question · H1 2025

Nik Burns from Jarden Australia Pty Limited questioned the decision to maintain an 80% dividend payout ratio given gearing is at the top end of the target range. He also asked about the strong marketing results and what would drive the guided increase in gas hub spot exposure in the second half of the year.

Answer

Executive VP & CFO Graham Tiver explained the dividend decision was supported by strong underlying business performance, disciplined cost control, portfolio optimization from the Stone Peak and Angostura deals, and confidence in future cash flow. CEO Meg O’Neill added that the marketing team's ability to achieve a $3/MMBtu premium on gas hub sales validates their strategy, and the company's full-year guidance implies higher spot exposure in the second half, which is well-positioned given market dynamics.

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