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    Noah Poponak • Goldman Sachs

    Noah Poponak's questions to Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) leadership

    Noah Poponak's questions to Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak questioned the quarterly revenue and margin pacing for FY26, the potential financial impact and timing of the Golden Dome initiative, and the drivers behind the growing deferred revenue balance.

    Answer

    CEO William Ballhaus maintained a 'relatively flat' first-half revenue outlook and suggested the margin progression is clearer if the recent $30M revenue shift is excluded. He stated Golden Dome's timing is TBD and not in the FY26 outlook. EVP & CFO David Farnsworth explained that deferred revenue is growing due to improved contracting terms where customers pay upfront for items like end-of-life component buys.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs inquired about the potential for free cash flow growth in fiscal 2026, the timeline for burning through the low-margin backlog, and the methodology for defining and booking new contracts at higher margins.

    Answer

    CEO Will Ballhaus indicated that FY26 free cash flow will be a function of both the steady-state 50% conversion from EBITDA and further cash released from balance sheet improvements, with more color to come next quarter. He suggested the low-margin backlog will burn off over "several quarters." CFO Dave Farnsworth clarified that booking a new contract's margin involves a rigorous start-up process that pressure-tests risks and opportunities, rather than just using the initial bid price.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Amentum Holdings Inc (AMTM) leadership

    Noah Poponak's questions to Amentum Holdings Inc (AMTM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak asked to reconcile Amentum's strong market positioning with its low growth rates, questioned the stability of the 1% revenue headwind from administration changes, and probed the valuation of the Rapid Solutions divestiture.

    Answer

    CEO John Heller pointed to the company's alignment with enduring government priorities and a strong bid pipeline as drivers for future growth. He expressed confidence that the 1% headwind estimate for FY25 is stable. CFO Travis Johnson declined to comment on the divestiture valuation beyond the publicly disclosed sale price and the business's contribution of ~1% to total EBITDA.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Amentum Holdings Inc (AMTM) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs asked how to reconcile the robust total pipeline with the decline in funded backlog. He also questioned if the prior 4-6% organic growth framework is a reasonable starting point for FY26 and requested a quantification of the current nuclear revenue base.

    Answer

    CFO Travis Johnson attributed the lower funded backlog to timing issues related to federal contracting, expressing no long-term concern. CEO John Heller added that significant JV wins, like the Canadian nuclear contract, drive profitability but are not included in reported backlog. Management remained optimistic about the FY26 growth trajectory and reiterated that front-end nuclear work constitutes around $700 million in annual revenue.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Ducommun Inc (DCO) leadership

    Noah Poponak's questions to Ducommun Inc (DCO) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak inquired about the drivers behind the Q4 low double-digit revenue growth forecast, questioning if it implies an end to aerospace inventory destocking and whether the Q4 exit rate could serve as a guide for 2026. He also asked about the significant improvement in Q2 cash flow and the potential to reach the company's annual conversion target.

    Answer

    SVP & CFO Suman Mookerji and Chairman, President & CEO Stephen Oswald clarified that the Q4 growth will be driven by both a modest commercial aerospace recovery and continued strength in the defense business, particularly in missiles and radar. Oswald noted that destocking at Boeing and Spirit will likely persist through year-end. Regarding cash flow, Mookerji attributed the strength to improved working capital management and higher profits, noting year-to-date free cash flow conversion is at 55% of adjusted net income.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Ducommun Inc (DCO) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs inquired about the expected pace of revenue growth through 2025, the year-end target for the Engineered Systems revenue mix, whether Q1's operating margin represents a low for the year, and the full-year free cash flow conversion outlook.

    Answer

    Suman Mookerji outlined that second-half growth will be driven by commercial aero recovery, defense strength, and the ramp-up of transitioning programs. He projected the Engineered Products mix to be 23-24% organically, rising above 25% with an acquisition. He also indicated that while Q1's record 15.9% EBITDA margin had some favorable mix, a full-year figure around 16% is a good target. For cash flow, he expects continued improvement on the 40% conversion rate from 2024, as the company works toward its long-term goal of 100% conversion of adjusted net income.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Parsons Corp (PSN) leadership

    Noah Poponak's questions to Parsons Corp (PSN) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs asked for specifics on the guided second-half organic growth for Federal Solutions, the risks involved, and the drivers behind the segment's recent margin decline.

    Answer

    CFO Matt Ophelis confirmed the H2 Federal organic growth forecast is just over 20% (ex-confidential contract), driven by existing program ramps. CEO Cary Smith added that July's results support this outlook. Mr. Ophelis explained the Q2 margin dip was due to lower volume from a high-margin confidential contract and investments in bids and strategic hires. He expects margins to recover to the low 9% range for the full year.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Parsons Corp (PSN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs asked about the risk to a confidential contract's funding, the resolution of a CMS recompete, the drivers of the 2025 Critical Infrastructure margin outlook, and the rationale behind the 2025 cash flow guidance.

    Answer

    CFO Matt Ofilos and CEO Carey Smith addressed the questions by stating the confidential contract's funding is unlikely to go to zero, the CMS work was retained on a different vehicle, and 2025 margin expansion will be driven by the CI segment. CFO Matt Ofilos explained that 2025 cash flow guidance is impacted by a $30 million one-time 401(k) timing change and a business mix shift, following two years of exceptionally high cash conversion.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Parsons Corp (PSN) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Noah Poponak asked for more detail on the two contracts creating the 5% to 15% recompete range for the next year. He also requested the approximate Q4 margin guidance by segment and an update on the final timing for the remaining legacy work in the Critical Infrastructure (CI) segment.

    Answer

    CEO Carey Smith identified one contract as the large confidential one and the other as a contract that has been receiving extensions, which may or may not continue. CFO Matt Ofilos guided to Q4 margins of high-9s to low-10s for Federal Solutions and low-7s for CI. Carey Smith stated the last legacy project is expected to reach substantial completion within the next few weeks, a slight delay from Q3 due to additional systems work.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to TransDigm Group Inc (TDG) leadership

    Noah Poponak's questions to TransDigm Group Inc (TDG) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs questioned the implied Q4 aftermarket growth acceleration needed to meet full-year guidance. He also asked if the commercial OEM business is expected to 'snap back' due to easy comparisons and alignment with production rates.

    Answer

    Co-COO Mike Lisman stated that with year-to-date aftermarket growth at 10%, the full-year guidance is well within reach. He confirmed the commercial OEM destocking is viewed as temporary, with a return to positive growth expected in Q4. Lisman added that visibility into channel inventory is limited due to sales through sub-tiers.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to TransDigm Group Inc (TDG) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak questioned the M&A activity level, noting a lack of large deals despite a "very busy pipeline" commentary, and asked for clarification on the full-year free cash flow guidance, particularly regarding working capital.

    Answer

    President and CEO Kevin Stein defended the M&A activity, stating they have screened numerous large targets but must remain disciplined on valuation and strategic fit, highlighting that last year was their second-best ever for acquired EBITDA. CFO Sarah Wynne reiterated the full-year free cash flow guidance of approximately $2.3 billion, expecting working capital to end the year in line with historical levels as a percentage of sales.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to TransDigm Group Inc (TDG) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak questioned why full-year margin guidance implies flat performance for the rest of the year despite a strong Q1, and asked for commentary on the commercial transport aftermarket growth rate.

    Answer

    Co-COO Joel Reiss explained the guidance is conservative, factoring in the dilutive effect of recent acquisitions and the unusual Q1 mix shift from the Boeing strike. CEO Kevin Stein noted the aftermarket performance reflects market "lumpiness," with freight being a drag while engine-related businesses performed strongly, and was slightly better than internal expectations.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) leadership

    Noah Poponak's questions to Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs asked for a framework to quantify the return on increased CapEx, such as the expected run-rate revenue gain, and inquired about the timeline for CapEx to become a free cash flow tailwind.

    Answer

    Executive Chairman and CEO John Plant stated that while he wouldn't provide specific revenue guidance from the CapEx yet, the investments are expected to drive growth in 2026 and 2027. He anticipates CapEx will remain elevated through 2026 before potentially moderating in 2027-2028. Plant emphasized that organic growth provides the best return on capital for Howmet, justifying the increased spending over share buybacks or M&A, and noted the company is pleased to have more growth opportunities than it can currently fund.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII) leadership

    Noah Poponak's questions to Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs probed the gap between significant government funding and HII's modest guidance improvement, the relative importance of hiring versus attrition, and the outlook for cash taxes and capital expenditures.

    Answer

    President and CEO Christopher Kastner attributed the pace to the time required to work through pre-COVID contracts, while noting hiring and attrition are directly linked. EVP and CFO Thomas Stiehle added that the recent tax benefit has some tailwinds in future years, and he expects CapEx to remain elevated above the long-term average for the next couple of years, contingent on new submarine contracts.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak asked why the Submarine Industrial Base (SAS) language was dropped from a recent executive order, questioned the drivers of improved workforce attrition, and sought specifics on the sequential margin decline guided for Q2.

    Answer

    President and CEO Christopher Kastner said that while the SAS name was dropped, the critical investments it identified are being funded through new contracts. He attributed lower attrition to hiring more experienced labor rather than broad wage hikes. EVP and CFO Thomas Stiehle described the Q2 margin guidance as conservative for both segments.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Noah Poponak asked when pre-pandemic contracts would finish flowing through the financials and requested a new framework for recurring free cash flow after the company withdrew its multi-year target.

    Answer

    CFO Thomas Stiehle estimated that post-COVID contracts will constitute the majority of work in the 2027-2028 timeframe. He explained that the 5-year free cash flow target was withdrawn because the significant miss in the first year made it prudent to wait for more clarity on performance and new contract structures before issuing a new long-term forecast, though he stressed the long-term investment thesis remains intact.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Boeing Co (BA) leadership

    Noah Poponak's questions to Boeing Co (BA) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs sought clarification on the 2025 free cash flow outlook and asked if the long-term $10 billion free cash flow target is still achievable, making it a question of 'when,' not 'if.'

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Brian West affirmed the ~$3 billion cash usage for 2025 is a reasonable assumption, with Q4 expected to be positive. President & CEO Kelly Ortberg addressed the long-term view, stating he sees 'nothing structural' that would prevent Boeing from reaching the $10 billion free cash flow target. He agreed it is a matter of 'when, not if,' but declined to provide a specific timeline.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Boeing Co (BA) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak asked for specifics on how Boeing achieved a 50% reduction in traveled work so quickly and maintained a positive defense margin. He also inquired about the extent to which recent operational improvements are attributable to new leadership's 'blocking and tackling' efforts.

    Answer

    CEO Robert Ortberg credited the reduction in traveled work to a new 'travel-ready' process that stops the production line if work is incomplete, forcing discipline. He attributed the defense performance to a renewed focus on collaborative, 'win-win' contract management with customers. CFO Brian West added that the tanker issue in the quarter was minor and did not have a significant financial impact.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Boeing Co (BA) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Noah Poponak pressed for details on the specific causes of recurring cost growth on the T-7A program, how the new acquisition approach mitigates this, and how management can be confident in near-term cash flow improvement given these fixed-price contracts.

    Answer

    CEO Kelly Ortberg identified the core issue as a fixed-price development contract paired with fixed-price production options where the supply chain was not secured at fixed prices. He explained that new MOAs with the Air Force reduce risk by eliminating production-test concurrency. Confidence in future performance comes from the ongoing process of locking in the supply chain, which is the source of the current charges.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Boeing Co (BA) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs sought confirmation that Boeing expects negative free cash flow for the full year 2025 and asked for the key drivers of this forecast, as well as a timeline for restoring MAX production to pre-strike levels.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Brian West confirmed the expectation for negative free cash flow in 2025, citing peak investment in the 777X program and uncertainty around the production ramp pace. President and CEO Kelly Ortberg declined to give a specific timeline for the MAX recovery, highlighting that the restart must be done right, not fast, and will depend on factors like retraining, supply chain stability, and FAA approvals for rate increases.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Woodward Inc (WWD) leadership

    Noah Poponak's questions to Woodward Inc (WWD) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs asked for details on the aerospace investments impacting Q3 margins, the reasons for the reduced free cash flow guidance, and whether the strong implied Q4 aerospace margin serves as a new baseline for next year.

    Answer

    CFO Bill Lacey explained the investments were in personnel to drive productivity, not a direct margin rate hit. He stated the free cash flow reduction is due to a strategic investment in working capital, specifically inventory, to meet customer demand amid supply chain volatility. He cautioned that the strong Q4 margin is not necessarily the new baseline for FY26.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Woodward Inc (WWD) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak inquired about the conservative Aerospace margin guidance, the growth trajectory for the LEAP aftermarket, and the specific drivers of Aerospace segment growth.

    Answer

    CFO William Lacey explained that a mix shift towards defense OE and caution around tariffs led them to maintain the margin guidance. CEO Charles Blankenship confirmed that LEAP aftermarket volumes have been doubling year-over-year and are on track with long-term targets. He also noted that both price and volume contributed to the segment's 13% growth.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Woodward Inc (WWD) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak questioned the aftermarket revenue contribution from LEAP and GTF engines, whether the 2025 guidance assumes a significant ramp, and how the Q1 commercial OE results compared to internal expectations given the Boeing shutdown.

    Answer

    Executives explained that LEAP and GTF aftermarket revenue is growing nicely as modeled but off a low base, and while factored into guidance, it won't be a major needle-mover until closer to 2028. CEO Charles Blankenship noted the Q1 OE performance was not a surprise, as the wide guidance range was set with the Boeing pause in mind. He added that Woodward is rooting for Boeing to achieve its aggressive second-half recovery goals.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Woodward Inc (WWD) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Noah Poponak challenged the seemingly conservative aerospace aftermarket outlook, asked if strong defense OE growth was a margin headwind, and questioned if the company was considering further asset sales.

    Answer

    CEO Charles Blankenship tempered aftermarket expectations by citing physical MRO capacity constraints but acknowledged upside from heavier work scopes. CFO William Lacey confirmed the high defense OE mix was a headwind to Q4 incremental margins. Blankenship stated that the company continuously evaluates its portfolio as part of its standard product management discipline.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Textron Inc (TXT) leadership

    Noah Poponak's questions to Textron Inc (TXT) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs asked about the MV75 revenue profile over the next few years, the price-cost outlook for the fixed-price LRIPs, and the supply and delivery ramp at Cessna for the remainder of the year and into 2026.

    Answer

    Scott C. Donnelly, Chairman, CEO & President, indicated that MV75 revenue should continue to grow over the next couple of years but the full production ramp is still being defined with the Army. He acknowledged the first eight LRIP aircraft were bid at a challenging fixed price. For Cessna, he stated the production ramp is proceeding as planned and communicated to suppliers, but declined to provide specific 2026 delivery guidance.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Textron Inc (TXT) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak inquired about the current demand environment for the private jet market amid macro uncertainty and asked for an update on Textron Aviation's production and delivery ramp for the remainder of the year.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO Scott Donnelly acknowledged that while some customers might pause, the overall demand environment remains solid, supported by a strong backlog that gives customers confidence for deliveries 18-24 months out. He reaffirmed that the production ramp continues as guided, with the first half being lighter on margins but expects to recover in the second half as factory productivity returns to pre-strike levels.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Textron Inc (TXT) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Noah Poponak questioned the 2025 cash flow guidance, noting it seemed low relative to net income and asking about working capital assumptions. He also requested more detail on the drivers behind the expected decline in Bell's margin.

    Answer

    CFO Frank Connor explained the cash flow guidance reflects headwinds from military payment timing, higher inventory needs for the 2025 production ramp, and increased CapEx for growth and FLRAA preparation. CEO Scott Donnelly added that Bell's 2025 margin will be diluted by its primary growth drivers: the FLRAA program ramp and higher commercial OEM deliveries, both of which carry lower margins than the segment average.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Textron Inc (TXT) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Noah Poponak requested the expected Q4 Cessna jet delivery figure, clarity on whether production will be fully recovered by 2025, and an update on the medium-term incremental margin framework for Aviation.

    Answer

    CEO Scott Donnelly declined to provide a specific delivery number but stated the factory should be operating smoothly by January 1, 2025, with 2025 revenue expected to exceed the original 2024 guidance. He also reaffirmed that the long-term incremental margin target for the Aviation segment remains at 20-plus percent.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) leadership

    Noah Poponak's questions to Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs asked if the implied segment margins for the second half of 2025 represent the new run rate for the foreseeable future and requested more details on the review of the MFC classified program.

    Answer

    CFO Evan Scott indicated that while the goal is to drive margins up incrementally, some one-time step-ups occurred in the first half, and more guidance on out-year margins will be provided later. Regarding the MFC classified program, he expressed confidence in their current position due to close monitoring. CEO James Taiclet added there could be future margin upside, especially in MFC, as one-time write-offs are absorbed.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Noah Poponak sought clarity on the Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) segment's margin performance, questioning if recent results reflect genuine operational improvement or simply the timing of loss accruals on a classified program, and asked about the outlook for these losses in 2025.

    Answer

    CFO Jesus Malave clarified that the segment's underlying performance is strong, citing a 14.4% margin in Q3 excluding the classified program losses. He confirmed that the bulk of the year's guided loss ($225 million) is expected in Q4. For 2025, he provided a baseline assumption of $250 million to $300 million in losses for the program, noting that the accounting for such losses is subject to a continuous assessment of facts and circumstances.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to RTX Corp (RTX) leadership

    Noah Poponak's questions to RTX Corp (RTX) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs asked if the improvement in aftermarket MRO capacity was a step-function change or more of a stabilization, and sought clarity on the nature of the R&D-related cash flow benefit.

    Answer

    CEO Christopher Calio clarified that the GTF MRO output growth is driven by improving velocity and efficiency within existing 'workhorse' shops, not just by adding new facilities. CFO Neil Mitchill explained the R&D cash benefit is a complex but sustained tailwind resulting from new tax legislation that lowers taxable income, rather than a one-time refund.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to RTX Corp (RTX) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak noted that full-year guidance implies flat to slightly down margins sequentially for Pratt and Collins and asked how much of this is due to fundamental business drivers versus conservatism or a cushion for potential tariffs.

    Answer

    CFO Neil Mitchill acknowledged the strong Q1 margins but cited ongoing uncertainty. He noted that higher OE engine installs at Pratt will create a natural margin headwind in subsequent quarters. He stated that at this point in the year, the current guidance range provides room to absorb potential market softening, and the company will reassess its outlook in 90 days.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to RTX Corp (RTX) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs asked which of the original 2025 segment margin targets from 2021 remain achievable and which have structurally changed. He also asked for the latest assumption on the final year of GTF powder metal cash headwinds.

    Answer

    CFO Neil Mitchill asserted that all original long-term margin targets are achievable, despite headwinds like inflation. Executive Christopher Calio added that conviction in the businesses' fundamentals remains strong. Regarding the GTF cash impact, Neil Mitchill stated the residual amount is currently planned for 2026, which should create a tailwind from 2025.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to RTX Corp (RTX) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs asked if the 2025 margin framework for Collins is still valid and requested quantification on the number of GTF engines that have completed the powdered metal inspection process.

    Answer

    Executive Christopher Calio addressed the GTF question, stating that while progress is being made, the major ramp-up of new full-life parts will occur in 2025 as forging capacity increases. Executive Neil Mitchill addressed the Collins margin, declining to provide 2025 guidance but confirming that OE volumes and absorption are key watch items. He expects Collins' margins and operating profit to grow next year, supported by strong demand and structural cost reduction actions.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to HEICO Corp (HEI) leadership

    Noah Poponak's questions to HEICO Corp (HEI) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak asked about growth expectations for the Electronic Technologies Group (ETG) in the second half of the year, the potential timing for defense PMA revenue, and current airline demand trends for the Flight Support Group (FSG).

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Carlos Macau projected ETG's full-year absolute growth in the mid-to-high single digits. Co-CEO Eric Mendelson noted that defense PMA revenue is a post-2025 story and that FSG demand remains very strong as airlines focus on cost savings amid high travel demand and an aging fleet.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to HEICO Corp (HEI) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs followed up on previous discussions about pricing strategy, asking if HEICO was leaning more into price increases to close the gap with OEMs or continuing to prioritize market share gains. He also asked about trends in the ETG's defense, space, and aero segment.

    Answer

    Eric Mendelson, Co-President, reiterated that HEICO has not aggressively pushed pricing, keeping increases in the low-single-digits to cover costs and deliver value. Carlos Macau, EVP and CFO, and Victor Mendelson, Co-President, addressed ETG, noting strong Q1 growth in defense and space, expecting continued lumpiness but an overall positive trend for the year, with a potential recovery in other electronics markets.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to HEICO Corp (HEI) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs inquired about the sequential decline in the Flight Support Group's Q4 margin, the persistent weakness in ETG's non-A&D end markets, and the reason for a higher corporate expense level in the quarter.

    Answer

    CFO Carlos Macau characterized the FSG margin dip as "noise" and expects future gains from SG&A leverage. Co-President Victor Mendelson anticipates a reversal of the destocking trend in ETG's other industries in the first half of fiscal 2025. Carlos Macau explained that corporate expense was in its typical range of 1.4-1.5% of sales, reflecting normal inflation and business growth.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS) leadership

    Noah Poponak's questions to Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs asked if management could rule out a year of revenue decline over the next three years, given the numerous industry and company-specific factors at play.

    Answer

    CEO Tom Bell stated that while he can't say 'never,' he does not envision a revenue decline and considers it a low probability. He expressed high confidence that the NorthStar 2030 growth pillars are aligned with robustly growing customer needs and administration priorities, with a plan to maintain profitability while driving top-line growth.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Leidos Holdings Inc (LDOS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Noah Poponak sought clarification on the timeline for the VBA work within the Health and Civil segment and asked if a 20%-plus adjusted segment operating margin is a reasonable medium- to long-term expectation.

    Answer

    CEO Thomas Bell laid out the timeline: Leidos is currently on an option year, expects a new two-year award in the coming weeks, and a multiyear recompete will follow. CFO Chris Cage confirmed this and stated that a margin of "20-ish-plus percent for this segment going forward" is in the "right ZIP code," expressing increased bullishness on sustaining that level of performance.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to V2X Inc (VVX) leadership

    Noah Poponak's questions to V2X Inc (VVX) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak asked for details on the Q1 cash use, which appeared larger than seasonal norms, and inquired about the risk of back-half loaded programs slipping into 2026, as well as the initial margin profile of the ramping WTRS program.

    Answer

    SVP and CFO Shawn Mural confirmed the Q1 cash use was planned and driven by working capital, with some collections slipping just past quarter-end. He reaffirmed the full-year target of over 100% cash conversion. He also stated the WTRS program margin will be accretive to the company average in the second half. President and CEO Jeremy Wensinger expressed confidence that awards would remain on schedule, citing the current pace and the team's focus.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Embraer SA (ERJ) leadership

    Noah Poponak's questions to Embraer SA (ERJ) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs asked if the large Flexjet order was incremental to existing plans and questioned why the 2025 free cash flow guidance was lower than recent performance.

    Answer

    CFO Antonio Garcia confirmed the Flexjet order is 100% incremental, with deliveries from 2026. Regarding cash flow, he explained the lower 2025 guidance is due to the timing of significant Defense prepayments received in Q4 2024 that were originally expected in 2025. He noted that the combined 2024-2025 cash flow aligns with their 50% EBITDA conversion target.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Embraer SA (ERJ) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Noah Poponak sought clarification on the full-year margin guidance after the strong Q2, asking if it included one-time items. He also asked about the medium-term margin progression for the Defense segment as the KC-390 program mix shifts.

    Answer

    CFO Antonio Carlos Garcia explained they are tracking to the high end of guidance but are not raising it yet due to supply chain volatility. For Defense, he described an inflection point where the margin mix is improving. He projects a move from mid-single-digits this year towards high-single-digit or low-teen margins next year as new export contracts replace domestic ones.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Kratos Defense and Security Solutions Inc (KTOS) leadership

    Noah Poponak's questions to Kratos Defense and Security Solutions Inc (KTOS) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs inquired about Kratos's role in the Sentinel program, the rationale for the significant increase in capital expenditures, and the status of Valkyrie customers, particularly the Marine Corps versus the original intended customer.

    Answer

    CEO Eric DeMarco clarified Kratos's Sentinel role is in above-ground missile transporters, separate from the underground infrastructure under review. CFO Deanna Lund and CEO DeMarco detailed that the CapEx increase is tied to specific, contracted programs like MACH-TB and a new facility in Israel, with costs expected to be recovered. DeMarco confirmed the Marine Corps' Valkyrie program is on track and noted the original customer's program is now one of 17 protected programs by the DoD.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to CAE Inc (CAE) leadership

    Noah Poponak's questions to CAE Inc (CAE) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs asked if the ramp-up of new business jet capacity was creating a temporary drag on Civil margins and whether past acquisitions have been accretive. He also inquired about the potential for Civil margins in a normalized environment and the status of remaining legacy defense contracts.

    Answer

    COO Nick Leontidis confirmed that new centers in Las Vegas and Savannah are still ramping up, causing some margin drag. CEO Marc Parent stated past acquisitions have been accretive and that there is 'ample room' for future margin growth in a normalized environment. Management also clarified that five legacy defense contracts remain after one more rolls off this fiscal year, and they are on track with managing the risk on the remaining programs.

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    Noah Poponak's questions to Hexcel Corp (HXL) leadership

    Noah Poponak's questions to Hexcel Corp (HXL) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs sought to clarify Boeing's message to its supply chain during the strike, asking if it was a 'full stop' or 'keep building.' He also asked about the progress of the planned divestiture of the Austrian industrial facility.

    Answer

    CEO Tom Gentile clarified that Boeing issued 'stop ship' orders but encouraged suppliers to continue building inventory to be ready for a quick restart, which Hexcel did. He also stated that the divestiture process for the Austrian plant is 'midway through.' Executive Patrick Winterlich added that the 737 MAX is not Hexcel's largest program, so the impact was marginal.

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