Noel Parks • Tuohy Brothers Investment Research

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President and CEO Paul Goodfellow responded that Talos continues to evaluate non-operated opportunities where it can add value. He stated that the company's investment decisions are based on a long-term price view due to project cycle times, and that the fundamental approach to evaluating deals within their capital allocation framework has not changed significantly.

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President and CEO Paul Goodfellow explained that the risk-return profile dictates the working interest; the company is willing to take higher interests in lower-risk development projects near its infrastructure, while sharing risk with partners on frontier exploration. Regarding international expansion, he confirmed that the go-forward strategy is evaluating global basins where Talos can leverage its capabilities.

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EVP & CCO Samir Ali explained that capital discipline is relatively uniform, with most operators acknowledging that the current deferral of demand is unsustainable. President & CEO Simon Johnson added that 2025 will likely prove to be a low point for exploration, necessitating future activity. Regarding the BP discovery, Mr. Johnson called it a 'good start' that will drive near-term appraisal drilling and demonstrates the remaining potential in legacy basins.

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CCO Samir Ali explained that client behavior varies, with some ready to act quickly on rising day rates while others are more cautious. CEO Simon Johnson noted that the increase in exploration is a significant positive trend, supported by regulators like Brazil's, and underpins their long-term optimism for the deepwater market.

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President & COO Clay Carrell confirmed that the 'ground game' of land swaps and trades remains an active and important part of the program, citing the Invicta pad as an example of unlocking stranded acreage. He explained that efficiency gains are a mix of both internal innovation, such as new cementing processes, and the adoption of proprietary products and ideas from service provider partners.

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CEO Chris Doyle stated that the company's first line of defense against volatility is maintaining a peer-leading low-cost structure, which was a key driver of recent organizational changes. CFO Marianella Foschi confirmed that the $1.1 billion free cash flow forecast is a clean operational figure and does not include the deferred acquisition payment, which was settled from the year-end 2024 balance sheet.

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CEO M. Doyle responded that having their own established operational track record makes them 'more informed,' not more adventurous, when evaluating deals. CFO Marianella Foschi stated they are 'cautiously optimistic' about gas basis improvement but are 'not seeing it just yet,' which is why they hedged 50% of their Permian gas exposure through 2026.

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President and CEO Robert Eifler explained that the company is managing costs closely, including adopting a 'six-month readiness' posture for some idle rigs to balance costs and marketability. He expressed strong optimism that major discoveries, like BP's, support the long-term thesis for offshore exploration as customers increasingly focus on reserve replacement, signaling a meaningful shift back to offshore drilling.

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CFO Richard Barker reiterated that the legacy Diamond BOP leases amount to approximately $26 million in 2025 and are recorded as an operating expense. Regarding tariffs, Barker confirmed that while the current 2025 cost impact is estimated at less than $15 million, future cost increases from suppliers would generally be passed through to Noble, and a material change in the tariff situation could have a larger impact in 2026 and beyond.

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President and CEO Keelan Adamson and EVP & Chief Commercial Officer Roddie Mackenzie characterized the recent slowdown as atypical, driven by operator capital discipline amid market volatility rather than a conventional cyclical downturn. They see it creating pent-up demand. They viewed the BP Boomerang discovery as a significant positive, signaling renewed IOC interest in large-scale exploration, particularly in Brazil, and expect it to spur further appraisal and development activity, contributing to a 25% expected increase in exploration wells in 2026-2027.

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EVP & Chief Commercial Officer Roddie Mackenzie affirmed the market's strong fundamentals, citing majors refocusing on oil and gas, a projected 40% increase in deepwater CapEx by 2029, and superior investment economics. He believes the fear of a rate rollback is off the table for long-term contracts, stating it would not make sense to lock in premium assets at below-market rates given the outlook. President & CEO Keelan Adamson added that barriers to entry for new assets support a constructive market, and Transocean believes now is not the time to lock up future years at current rates.

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Chairman & CEO Bob Gerrity expressed optimism about Chevron taking over the Hess assets, citing Chevron's positive performance with Noble in the DJ Basin as an encouraging precedent, and speculated that activity could increase. President Brian Cree affirmed that capital efficiency in the Bakken continues to improve, highlighting advancements like three- and four-mile laterals and refracs as key drivers of productivity.

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President Brian Cree responded that AFE quality remains high, with a notable trend toward more 4-mile laterals. He confirmed that AFE costs for 2-mile and 3-mile laterals had declined by approximately 5% and 8%, respectively, from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025. Chairman and CEO Robert Gerrity stated that Vitesse has been receiving inbound inquiries from stressed companies and is actively evaluating opportunities in other basins, preparing to be opportunistic if market disruptions create attractive entry points.

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CFO Jimmy Henderson responded that oil takeaway from the Bakken is in 'really good shape,' but the basin could use more gas processing and NGL takeaway capacity. On consolidation, President Brian Cree clarified that significant consolidation has already occurred, with the number of Vitesse's operators dropping from around 40 to 30, and noted that just five operators now account for roughly 75% of their production.

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CFO Jimmy Henderson stated that the wildfires had no discernible impact on production volumes, attributing the minor guidance adjustment to the timing of new wells coming online. President Brian Cree noted that AFE costs were consistent between Q2 and Q3 but expects actual drilling costs to decline in the future due to lower fuel prices, though this may take several months to be reflected in operator AFEs.

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President Adam Dirlam and CEO Nicholas O’Grady confirmed that post-merger divestitures remain a key M&A driver, with large operators using creative structures to sell non-core assets. Regarding gas markets, O'Grady noted that while regional price differentials are factored into deals, long-term catalysts like data center demand have not yet been significant enough to materially alter deal pricing.

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President Adam Dirlam confirmed a significant acceleration in 'ground game' transaction opportunities, noting that deal flow in April alone matched the entire first quarter. He specified that sellers include both operators trimming CapEx and smaller non-ops facing funding issues. CTO Jim Evans added that declining cash flows historically accelerate these smaller deals, creating a significant opportunity for NOG. On gas pricing, Evans stated NOG avoids price prognostication, focusing instead on acquiring resilient, low-cost assets that can perform in any price environment.

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CEO Nicholas O'Grady stated NOG executes its own hedging strategy, using costless collars for gas to maintain upside exposure while protecting the downside. Regarding Permian gas, he noted improving local prices and acknowledged that infrastructure growth has lagged production, with ideas like in-basin data centers being explored.

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KR Sridhar, Founder, Chairman & CEO, described product development as a continuous improvement process rather than distinct generational leaps. He explained that real-time data from the company's vast installed base and digital twins enables ongoing enhancements to performance and cost, with new capabilities like CHP being added as attributes to the core platform.

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K.R. Sridhar (Founder, Chairman, and CEO) clarified that the primary competition is clusters of smaller microturbines and reciprocating engines, not large CCGTs. He argued that Bloom is superior on multiple metrics. For data centers, he believes the immense, power-limited demand for AI will force decision cycles for all project types to shrink, regardless of whether they are expansions or greenfield.

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CEO KR Sridhar, citing his background in nuclear engineering, expressed his belief that SMRs will not be a meaningful solution for at least 6-8 years. He argued the critical demand for power to support AI must be met in the next 4-6 years, creating a massive opportunity for Bloom's immediately deployable technology. He added that future nuclear power could create opportunities for Bloom's hydrogen solutions.

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CEO KR Sridhar expressed skepticism that SMRs could meaningfully address the massive power demand gap within the next 6-8 years, arguing the immediate need for power in the next 4-6 years creates a critical opportunity for Bloom's solutions. He noted Bloom's core C&I business remains strong and that the company has future pathways, like hydrogen, that can play a role as other technologies mature.

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CEO K.R. Sridhar confirmed the logic of co-locating near gas pipelines to bypass electricity transmission bottlenecks for large power users. He stated that while it's a "huge play," conversations with gas companies are in the "early stages" and he would provide updates if a deal materializes.

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COO Daniel Harrison expressed strong confidence in the Horseshoe well program, noting zero issues in drilling or completing them and seeing performance comparable to straight laterals, suggesting no reason to deviate from the current plan. CEO M. Jay Allison described the NextEra agreement as a collaboration to explore developing power generation for data centers, leveraging Comstock's acreage, but did not provide specific details on structure or timing.

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CEO Miles Allison agreed that Comstock has made significant inroads in challenging conditions that others might have avoided, and suggested the favorable gas price outlook could encourage others to look deeper. COO Daniel Harrison detailed the operational improvements, explaining that insulated drill pipe cools downhole tools, improving their longevity and reducing trips. He added that they have streamlined casing designs and optimized bottom hole assemblies based on performance data from previously drilled wells. CEO Miles Allison emphasized the success was a result of a long-term exploration strategy.

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COO Daniel Harrison detailed that their initial drilling time target of 75-80 days was based on extrapolating industry learning curves from the legacy Haynesville, a target they met and have since significantly improved upon. CEO Miles Allison stated the hedging strategy is designed to protect the balance sheet and fund their 2025-2026 drilling program while deleveraging. He expressed a very positive long-term view on natural gas, driven by record LNG demand.

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COO Daniel Harrison explained that extensive 3D seismic data allows them to effectively map and plan around faults in the Western Haynesville. On the macro outlook, President and CFO Roland Burns acknowledged the challenge, anticipating a volatile 2025 where low rig counts will tighten supply, but near-term prices remain highly dependent on winter weather outcomes.

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CEO Mark Chalmers clarified that the Navajo Nation cleanup requires no capital investment from Energy Fuels, as the work is funded by a ~$2 billion government trust. The company's initial commitment is to process 10,000 tons of material for free. On government funding, Chalmers stated they are pursuing multiple proposals across various agencies and are balancing these slower government processes with faster commercial financing options, suggesting funding is being sought on multiple, parallel fronts.

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President and CEO Mark Chalmers explained the company is updating the study to target a larger capacity of 6,000 tonnes of NdPr, driven by the successful acquisition of new heavy mineral sand projects. He anticipates the feasibility study will be completed by mid-2025, with permitting to follow. The timeline is designed to align the expanded capacity with the arrival of new feed materials around 2027-2028, while maintaining the flexibility to use the Phase 1 plant sooner if needed.

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CEO Christopher Conoscenti noted the self-correcting nature of the industry, pointing to mixed operator signals where some are cutting CapEx while maintaining production guidance. He reiterated a long-term bullish view, as Sitio's perpetual assets will benefit from the eventual cycle turn. Regarding operators buying minerals, he acknowledged the strategic logic but believes that in the current environment, operators will prioritize capital discipline and their own drilling programs over deploying capital for mineral acquisitions.

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CEO Christopher Conoscenti stated that stable or rising price environments are constructive for M&A, with a rapidly declining price environment being the most challenging for closing deals. Regarding production volatility, he explained that with approximately 84% of 2024 revenue derived from oil, Sitio is not significantly exposed to gas-price-driven shut-ins, as the economics of their oily wells remain robust even with lower gas prices.

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CEO Christopher Conoscenti and Chief Legal Officer A. McDavid responded, confirming that as assets are acquired by larger operators, they often become a higher priority, leading to accelerated and more efficient development. McDavid cited examples in both the Permian and DJ basins. On infrastructure, Conoscenti expressed confidence that operator capital discipline is the primary governor of activity, not infrastructure. He also praised midstream companies for proactively planning new capacity, such as the Blackcomb pipeline, well ahead of critical need.

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CEO Christopher Conoscenti responded that Sitio remains commodity-agnostic and returns-driven, and is not opposed to acquiring gas assets at the right price. Regarding operator behavior, he noted that the trend of assets moving to larger, more disciplined operators has reduced capital volatility. While some smaller private operators still ramp up for a sale, he stated this is now a very small fraction of Sitio's portfolio.

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Paul McKinney, Chairman and CEO, described a competitive environment with increased interest from large players like Hilcorp, but affirmed Ring's disciplined approach to acquisitions. He noted the Lime Rock deal provides exposure to emerging plays like the Barnett and Woodford. James Parr, EVP and Chief Exploration Officer, added that while shallow rights are often held by production, deeper rights are frequently available, and the company is actively leasing to organically grow its long-term inventory.

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CEO Paul McKinney and SVP of Operations Shawn Young acknowledged that while their high-return inventory is not 15-20 years deep, their strategy focuses on replenishment through accretive acquisitions and organic growth. Young highlighted a presentation slide showing consistent horizontal well performance with lower costs. McKinney added that plays like the Barnett offer excellent optionality in higher price environments (above $75 oil), but the company would not allocate capital to climb the associated learning curve in the current market, prioritizing balance sheet strength instead.

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CEO Paul McKinney clarified that the work involves applying modern drilling and completion technologies to known stacked pay zones in the Central Basin Platform that were previously uneconomic. He estimated current drilling breakeven costs are around $30-$35/bbl but reiterated that debt paydown would be prioritized over growth if prices fall. He also explained the divested assets were older vintage wells from the company's formation around 2013, which had higher operating costs and were non-strategic.

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President and CEO Keith Phillips stated that while tariffs are a factor, at current low lithium prices, they are not significant enough to alter customer decisions for its Quebec production. He noted that long-term, North American projects are strategically positive. Regarding the Carolina project, Phillips explained that while federal support for critical minerals is strong, the immediate focus remains on completing the permitting process. He added that current weak market conditions make it a challenging environment to finance and initiate new projects, regardless of policy support.

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President and CEO Keith Phillips acknowledged the strategic benefit of local conversion in Quebec to reduce high transportation costs, especially in the current market. He highlighted that Piedmont's strategy is to partner with larger, technically capable entities for downstream processing, positioning Piedmont as a spodumene supplier. He noted that NAL is the best-located project in Quebec, and a brownfield expansion there is particularly attractive due to existing infrastructure and lower potential CapEx.

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Keith Phillips, President and CEO, noted that partner interest remains deep, but Piedmont is not in a hurry to finalize a deal in the current low-price environment, putting a Final Investment Decision at least two years away. He acknowledged the ESS market is a huge growth driver that positively impacts overall lithium demand, reinforcing the strong long-term outlook.

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President and CEO Francisco Leon disagreed with the premise of delays, stating that the business is new and making rapid progress. He identified the primary catalyst for crystallizing emitter commitments as the permitting of physical CO2 pipelines, for which he sees significant legislative momentum in California. The immediate focus is on executing the first CCS project at Elk Hills, with injection expected by year-end.

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Francisco Leon (Executive) described the brownfield and greenfield projects as synergistic. He noted brownfield success depends on pipeline connectivity, while greenfield projects at sites like Elk Hills can produce clean fuels (e.g., renewable natural gas, hydrogen) that could then be supplied to brownfield emitters to lower their carbon footprint. He emphasized that while details are being finalized, the overall market opportunity is very strong for CRC as a first-mover.

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CEO Daniel Brown and Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer Michael Lou responded that 4-mile laterals will enable a small footprint expansion by making previously marginal acreage economic. Lou noted this is part of a continuous effort that has kept the sub-$60 inventory life stable. Brown added that while initial wells capture existing resources more efficiently, the improved economics will eventually migrate new locations into the proven undeveloped category, positively impacting reserves over time.

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CEO Daniel Brown explained that the current 4-mile program focuses on straight laterals, which present no new frac protection issues compared to drilling two separate 2-mile wells. Regarding reserves, he confirmed that the Enerplus assets were brought over under U.S. SEC rules and that Chord maintains a conservative PUD booking practice, not fully booking out to the 5-year limit, which was reflected in the reported reserve figures.

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CFO Richard Robuck and COO Darrin Henke explained that due to fixed-fee contracts, a gas price recovery would create high operating leverage, leading to a significant upside in realizations. They also noted potential positive tailwinds from the LNG Canada project. CEO Daniel Brown added that while capital synergies are largely in the 3-year plan, further operational synergies will be realized in 2025 by standardizing field practices like completion design and artificial lift to improve uptime and reduce failures.

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CEO Toby Rice stated the Olympus deal was attractive on its own merits, with the data center demand representing pure upside. CFO Jeremy Knop added it was a 'value buy' that enhances EQT's positioning for high-probability projects in the area. On volatility, Knop said it is expected to increase, and EQT is structured to capture this upside, citing the ability to swing production by 2 Bcf/day. CEO Toby Rice concluded that EQT is designed to thrive in a volatile environment.

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CFO Jeremy Knop agreed that market volatility should eventually lead to wider summer-winter spreads to incentivize new storage and will also be expressed in the options market. He noted that a delay in LNG facility start-ups, while bearish near-term, could be 'unbelievably bullish' for 2026 if multiple large facilities come online concurrently, creating a sudden demand shock that producers cannot meet quickly.

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