Odai Khan

Odai Khan, on behalf of Jason Seidl, asked Baris Oran to confirm the implied churn rate within the 2026 organic growth guidance, based on locked-in wins, and whether this reflects typical churn or concluded customer conversations. He also inquired if GXO's flat volume expectations for 2026 imply softer trends in the UK and Europe, given potential U.S. inventory restocking signals.

Answer

CFO Baris Oran confirmed steady retention rates and inflation pass-through for 2026, similar to 2025, and reiterated the prudent assumption of flat volumes in existing operations, with 6% gross growth already secured. He noted Q4 trends in North America/U.S. were stronger than Continental Europe and UK, but the flat volume assumption for 2026 is purely for prudence.

Odai Khan asked if the organic growth guidance, based on 2026 locked-in wins, implies a mid-single-digit churn rate, and whether this is an estimate or based on concluded customer conversations, and if broad market support could lead to outperformance. He also inquired if U.S. inventory drawdown signals are being observed, and if the guidance's flat volume assumption implies a softer UK/Europe or discrete U.S. trends.

Answer

Baris Oran (CFO, GXO) confirmed steady retention rates for 2026, similar to 2025, and consistent inflation pass-through, reiterating the prudent assumption of flat volumes in existing operations. He noted that 6% gross growth is already won, with more wins expected. He also stated that Q4 North America/U.S. trends were stronger than Continental Europe/UK, but the flat volume assumption for 2026 is purely for prudence, not a specific regional call.