Oliver Wintermantel

Oliver Wintermantel asked about the impact of lapping sale-leaseback benefits in 2026, specifically whether incremental contributions are expected or if the comparison will become neutral.

Answer

CEO Hal Lawton stated that the sale-leaseback benefit is expected to be flat year-over-year from an operating income perspective. He highlighted the success of the new real estate model, where 50% of new stores are self-developed, leading to significant cost savings in construction and strong cap rates upon sale.

Oliver Wintermantel asked about the expected impact of lapping sale-leaseback benefits and whether there would be any incremental contributions in 2026, or if the comparison would become neutral.

Answer

CEO Hal Lawton stated that the sale-leaseback benefit is expected to be flat year-over-year from an operating income perspective. He highlighted the success of the new real estate model, where 50% of new stores are company-developed, leading to significant cost savings (high single-digit to 10%) in building costs and material procurement, and strong cap rates on sales.

Oliver Wintermantel inquired about the realistic timeline for Petco's comp stabilization and which categories or customer behaviors would be the biggest swing factors. He also asked about the sustainability of Q3's working capital improvement and the financial/operational levers supporting cash generation for the next year.

Answer

Joel Anderson, Petco's Chief Executive Officer, indicated that 2026 guidance, including comp timing, would be provided on the March call, but all four strategic pillars are expected to contribute. Sabrina Simmons, Petco's Chief Financial Officer, stated that cash flow improvement is viewed as continuous, with a focus on net earnings and inventory discipline as principal levers, noting significant strides in SKU rationalization and inventory reduction.

Oliver Wintermantel inquired about the realistic timeline for Petco's comp sales stabilization and identified which categories or customer behaviors would be the biggest swing factors. He also asked about the sustainability of Q3 working capital improvements and future cash generation levers.

Answer

Joel Anderson, Petco's Chief Executive Officer, stated that a detailed 2026 outlook, including comp timing, would be provided in March, but confirmed all four strategic pillars are gaining traction and expected to contribute. Sabrina Simmons, Petco's Chief Financial Officer, emphasized continuous improvement in cash flow, driven by net earnings and inventory discipline, noting significant strides in SKU rationalization but still room for improvement.

Oliver Wintermantel of Evercore ISI asked about the expected conversion of adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow in 2025 and inquired about the company's assumptions for product mix shifts during the year.

Answer

CFO Sabrina Simmons explained that the primary driver of free cash flow will be improved profitability from the guided 14% EBITDA growth. She also mentioned a continued focus on managing working capital levers. Regarding product mix, she stated that the company's guidance does not rely on a favorable shift from consumables to higher-margin supplies; any such shift would be considered a tailwind.

Oliver Wintermantel asked about the path to improving profitability back towards historical levels, such as a 42% gross margin, and the expected drivers. He also inquired about the key drivers for free cash flow growth in the second half of the year.

Answer

CFO Brian LaRose noted that the 42% margin era was fueled by high growth in discretionary items, and the recent decline is the primary cause of margin deterioration. He stated the focus is on controllable factors like supply chain and services efficiencies. For free cash flow, LaRose identified the four levers as profitability, accounts payable, inventory, and CapEx, with improving profitability being the primary focus and disciplined inventory management also contributing.

Oliver Wintermantel of Evercore ISI inquired about the timing and strategy for achieving the company's target leverage ratio of below 2x. He also asked for a breakdown of the drivers behind the comparable sales decline, specifically between transactions and average unit retail (AUR).

Answer

CFO Sabrina Simmons explained that reaching the leverage target will take time and is primarily dependent on increasing profitability, which in turn improves free cash flow. She also clarified that the Q1 comp was driven by higher units per transaction (UPTs), which was offset by a drag from lower customer transactions. The company aims to improve transaction trends through new marketing initiatives.

Oliver Wintermantel from Evercore asked for more detail on the timing to achieve the company's leverage ratio target of below 2x and the outlook for free cash flow. He also inquired about the drivers of the Q1 comparable sales decline.

Answer

CFO Sabrina Simmons explained that achieving the leverage target will take time and that the primary focus is on increasing profitability, which will in turn improve both the leverage ratio and free cash flow. She also noted that the comp decline was primarily driven by lower transactions, which was partially offset by higher units per transaction (UPT).

Oliver Wintermantel of Evercore ISI questioned the timeline for achieving the company's target leverage ratio of below 2x and asked for the free cash flow outlook. He also inquired about the drivers of the comparable sales decline, specifically transactions versus average unit retail (AUR).

Answer

CFO Sabrina Simmons explained that reaching the leverage target will take time and is primarily dependent on increasing profitability, which will also drive free cash flow improvement. She clarified that the comparable sales decline was mainly driven by a drag in transactions, which was partially offset by an increase in units per transaction (UPT).

Oliver Wintermantel of Evercore ISI inquired about the company's leverage ratio target of below two times, asking for more detail on the timing and expected free cash flow. He also asked about the drivers of the comparable sales decline, specifically the mix between transactions and average unit retail (AUR).

Answer

CFO Sabrina Simmons stated that achieving the leverage target will take time and is primarily dependent on increasing profitability, which in turn improves free cash flow. She clarified that the Q1 comparable sales decline was driven mainly by a drag in transactions, which was partially offset by an increase in units per transaction (UPT).

Oliver Wintermantel of Evercore inquired about the expected timing to achieve the company's target leverage ratio of below 2x and the outlook for free cash flow. He also asked for the drivers of the comparable sales decline, specifically transactions versus average unit retail (AUR).

Answer

CFO Sabrina Simmons stated that reaching the leverage target will take time and is primarily dependent on increasing profitability, which in turn drives free cash flow. She clarified that the Q1 comp decline was mainly driven by a drag in transactions, which was partially offset by strength in units per transaction (UPT).

Oliver Wintermantel from Evercore ISI asked about the timing for achieving the company's leverage ratio target of below two times and the outlook for free cash flow. He also inquired about the primary drivers of the comparable sales decline, specifically transactions versus average unit retail.

Answer

CFO Sabrina Simmons explained that achieving the leverage target will take time and that the immediate focus is on improving profitability, which will in turn improve both the leverage ratio and free cash flow. She also noted that the comp decline was primarily driven by a drag in transactions, offset by strength in units per transaction (UPT).

Oliver Wintermantle focused on SG&A, noting that general expenses have been lowered for several quarters. He asked about the moving parts for SG&A into Q4, specifically mentioning an 80 basis points incentive compensation headwind and a 30 basis points advertising headwind in Q4, and how these are expected to shake out.

Answer

CFO Jeff Howie explained that the higher employment expense in Q3 was primarily due to increased incentive compensation from strong year-to-date performance. Advertising expenses leveraged by 20 basis points in Q3 as the in-house marketing team identified and scaled efficient digital advertising opportunities, driving site traffic and revenue per visit. He stated that the company does not guide specific SG&A lines for Q4 but maintains a focus on controlling SG&A and investing in opportunities with good return on investment. Chief Technology and Digital Officer Samir Hassan added that AI initiatives are driving SG&A reductions through automation of repeatable work, reduced vendor costs, and supply chain efficiencies, while also boosting top-line sales, engagement, and loyalty.

Oliver Wintermantle from Evercore ISI focused on SG&A moving parts into Q4, specifically general expenses, incentive compensation headwinds, and increased advertising spend.

Answer

Jeff Howie, CFO, explained that Q3's higher employment expense was primarily due to increased incentive compensation from strong performance, and advertising leveraged due to strategic digital spend. Samir Hassan, Chief Technology and Digital Officer, added that AI initiatives are driving SG&A reductions through automation of repeatable work, reduced vendor costs, and supply chain efficiencies, while also boosting top-line sales.

Oliver Wintermantel inquired about SG&A leverage at different comparable sales levels, specifically flat versus +3%, and the expected performance mix between e-commerce and retail stores in fiscal 2025.

Answer

CFO Jeff Howie explained that while the company doesn't guide specific line items, they expect SG&A leverage from expense savings to partially offset tariff headwinds. He highlighted variable employment costs, AI-driven efficiencies, and a flexible advertising model as key levers. For channel mix, Howie noted the strong Q4 retail performance but anticipates e-commerce will continue to represent approximately 66% of total revenues in fiscal 2025.

Oliver Wintermantel asked what level of comparable sales growth is required to achieve SG&A leverage and how this leverage point compares to the pre-pandemic period.

Answer

CEO Laura Alber responded that the relationship is not linear, as the company makes strategic choices, such as investing in advertising for growth brands, that affect leverage. She emphasized that the primary focus is on delivering value to consumers to build loyalty, rather than managing to a specific leverage threshold, highlighting their omnichannel strength and customer trust as key assets.

Oliver Wintermantel of Evercore ISI asked for commentary on the trends in orders from new versus repeat customers. He also requested more detail on the drivers of AOV, particularly the impact of product and brand mix.

Answer

CFO Kate Gulliver acknowledged the exciting growth in new customer orders but stated that the repeat business remains fundamentally strong, with both contributing to share gains. CEO Niraj Shah and Gulliver clarified that mix is the primary driver of AOV growth, pointing to the outperformance of higher-AOV brands like Perigold and the B2B business, rather than like-for-like price increases.

Oliver Wintermantel asked for confirmation that full-year 2024 free cash flow would be positive and inquired about capital allocation priorities and CapEx drivers for 2025. He also asked about the international segment's contribution to the 2025 EBITDA improvement outlook.

Answer

CFO Kate Gulliver confirmed expectations for 'healthy free cash flow generation' in Q4, driven by seasonality and cost discipline, but did not explicitly confirm positive FCF for the full year. For 2025 CapEx, she signaled continued discipline, with no major logistics network expansion and a measured physical retail rollout. Regarding the international segment's contribution to 2025 EBITDA, she stated that cost discipline is a global focus and that the company is managed for the overall performance of Wayfair Inc.

Oliver Wintermantel inquired about the source of revenue weakness, given that LTM active customers, AOV, and repeat customer metrics were all up. He also asked for an outlook on the active customer count for the remainder of the year.

Answer

CFO Kate Gulliver clarified that while LTM active customers and AOV were up, total orders were down, leading to the slight revenue decline. CEO Niraj Shah added the key context is that Wayfair is taking significant share in a market that is down roughly 10%. He noted the LTM active customer metric is a lagging indicator and they feel good about their momentum relative to the market.

Oliver Wintermantel of Evercore ISI asked for a specific breakdown of ticket versus traffic for the first quarter's comparable sales. He also inquired if the company was observing any consumer trade-down in its product mix during the positive Q2 quarter-to-date trend.

Answer

CFO Bryan Langley provided the Q1 breakdown, stating that comparable store sales of -1.8% consisted of a 2.1% increase in average ticket and a 3.8% decrease in transactions. CEO Tom Taylor responded that they have not seen any change in consumer behavior or trade-down, noting that customers continue to purchase from their 'better and best' product assortments.

Oliver Wintermantel of Evercore ISI asked about the drivers for the implied fourth-quarter gross margin and the conceptual outlook for gross margins in 2025, including any potential for reinvestment to drive traffic.

Answer

CEO Tom Taylor stated that gross margin benefits from favorable supply chain costs and the customer mix shift to 'better and best' products are expected to continue into Q4 and next year. The company is pressuring merchants on cost to support this. CFO Bryan Langley added a reminder that the opening of a new distribution center in the second half of 2025 will put some pressure on the gross margin rate.