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Oscar Saavedra

Oscar Saavedra

Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley

New York, NY, US

Oscar Saavedra is an Equity Research Associate specializing in software sector research at Morgan Stanley, with coverage focused on leading software companies. He has previously held roles as an Equity Research Associate at Guggenheim Partners and as a Staff Auditor at NKSFB, in addition to financial analyst responsibilities at Deckers Brands, reflecting a well-rounded background in financial analysis and auditing. Saavedra has been registered as a financial advisor with Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and holds relevant regulatory credentials. His career in finance and equity research demonstrates strong analytical expertise and a progressive trajectory across respected firms.

Oscar Saavedra's questions to APPIAN (APPN) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

Oscar Saavedra asked about the uptick in cloud net expansion, the acceleration in the Q1 2026 guidance compared to Q4 2025, and the company's visibility and confidence in this acceleration.

Answer

CFO Serge Tanjga stated that Appian is pleased with 2025 results and well-positioned for 2026. He explained that Q1 2026 benefits from strong Q4 2025 new business and a meaningful FX tailwind, which is the primary difference from the full-year guide.

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Question · Q4 2025

Oscar Saavedra asked about the Q1 cloud revenue guide's acceleration from Q4, seeking clarity on the visibility and confidence in this acceleration, especially given the uptick in cloud net expansion.

Answer

CFO Serge Tanjga explained that Q1 benefits from strong new business in Q4, making it a robust sequential guide. He also noted that Q1 will still benefit from a meaningful FX tailwind, which is the primary difference between the full-year and Q1 guidance.

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Oscar Saavedra's questions to JFrog (FROG) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

Oscar Saavedra inquired about JFrog's customer count strategy, specifically the focus on higher-spending enterprise customers, and the expected trajectory of overall customer count versus larger customer growth.

Answer

JFrog CEO Shlomi Ben Haim explained the strategic focus on enterprise customers, evidenced by significant growth in $1M+ and $100K+ annual spending customers. He noted that this strategy sometimes means letting go of lower ASP customers and mentioned an internal consolidation of approximately 300 subsidiary logos, along with impacts from geographic regulations. New enterprise customers are landing with higher ASPs and adopting DevSecOps.

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Question · Q4 2025

Oscar Saavedra asked about JFrog's customer count strategy, specifically how the focus on higher-spending, larger enterprise customers impacts the overall customer count, and the expected trajectory of this transition.

Answer

JFrog CEO Shlomi Ben Haim explained that the company's strategy focuses on enterprise customers, leading to significant growth in customers spending over $1 million and $100,000 annually. He noted that this focus might result in letting go of low ASP customers and mentioned an internal consolidation of approximately 300 lower ASP subsidiaries into parent entities, as well as churn due to geographic regulations. He emphasized that new customers are landing with higher ASPs and adopting more services.

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Oscar Saavedra's questions to Freshworks (FRSH) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

Oscar Saavedra inquired about the expected trend for Device42's 30% attach rate across top 50 new EX deals in 2026, and the typical incremental ACV uplift when Device42 is included with Freshservice.

Answer

Dennis Woodside, CEO and President, stated that Device42 is integral to the EX platform and upmarket motion, aiming for $100 million in ARR over the next couple of years. Tyler Sloat, COO and CFO, mentioned the upcoming native cloud offering for Device42 in Q2 2026 and noted that ARPAs for Device42 can range from $20,000 to multiple hundreds of thousands, depending on the organization's size.

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Question · Q4 2025

Oscar Saavedra inquired about the future trend of Device42's 30% attach rate across the top 50 new EX deals in 2026 and the typical incremental ACV uplift when Device42 is included with Freshservice.

Answer

CEO Dennis Woodside highlighted Device42 as an integral part of the broader EX platform (ITSM, ITAM, ITOM, ESM) for moving upmarket, crucial for retention and expansion, and on track to achieve $100 million in ARR. COO and CFO Tyler Sloat noted the upcoming Q2 launch of Device42's native cloud offering and mentioned ARPAs ranging from $20,000 to hundreds of thousands, depending on organization size.

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Oscar Saavedra's questions to PagerDuty (PD) leadership

Question · Q3 2026

Oscar Saavedra asked about the Q4 guidance, specifically how much of the 1% growth at the midpoint is based on the pipeline for the upcoming large renewal quarter versus conservatism regarding the timeline for the usage-based model to offset seat pressure. He also questioned how to reconcile improved customer logo retention and fewer absolute downgrades with the downtick in customers spending over $100,000 in ARR.

Answer

Howard Wilson, Chief Financial Officer of PagerDuty, stated that Q4 guidance incorporates visibility around renewals, which is PagerDuty's largest quarter. He expects new pricing and packaging to mitigate contraction and set customers for growth, though not a major impact in Q4. He noted early engagement and targeted efforts to improve adoption, anticipating some Q3 patterns to persist in Q4 with stabilization in customer downgrades/churn. Jennifer Tejada, Chairperson and CEO of PagerDuty, attributed the downtick in $100,000+ ARR customers to the impact of downsells at the larger end of the market, noting that expansions are occurring at a similar rate but are smaller and more cautious.

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Question · Q3 2026

Oscar Saavedra asked about the Q4 growth guidance (1% at midpoint) in relation to pipeline visibility for the big renewal quarter versus conservatism around the timeline for the usage-based model offsetting seat pressure, and how improved logo retention squares with the downtick in customers spending over $100,000 in ARR.

Answer

Howard Wilson (CFO, PagerDuty) stated that the Q4 guide factors in renewal visibility, and while the new pricing/packaging model will mitigate contraction, it's not expected to have a major immediate impact in Q4. Jennifer Tejada (Chairperson and CEO, PagerDuty) attributed the downtick in high-value customers to downsells at the larger end of the market, noting that customers are expanding at a similar rate but with smaller, more cautious expansions.

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Oscar Saavedra's questions to QUALYS (QLYS) leadership

Question · Q1 2025

Oscar Saavedra from Morgan Stanley asked for an update on the performance of partners in terms of lead and pipeline generation relative to internal expectations. He also inquired to what extent the full-year guidance assumes an improvement in this partner contribution.

Answer

CFO Joo Mi Kim expressed satisfaction with the progress on the partner side, noting increased pipeline and deal sizes relative to the direct business. However, she clarified that the current guidance prudently assumes no significant improvement from today's levels, essentially a 'stay the course' approach, given the macroeconomic uncertainty. She expressed hope for meaningful improvements once the macro environment improves.

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Question · Q4 2024

On behalf of Morgan Stanley, Oscar Saavedra asked for help reconciling the factors influencing the 2025 guidance, including budget scrutiny, a stable 103% NRR, and the CRO transition, and questioned the level of conservatism in the forecast.

Answer

CFO Joo Mi Kim confirmed the guidance of 6% to 8% growth incorporates all those factors. She clarified that the forecast is based on current trends, which include the assumption that the net dollar expansion rate will not improve from 103% and that the light new bookings performance from Q4 will persist. She acknowledged potential upside from new products like ETM, but stated the timing of that impact remains uncertain.

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Oscar Saavedra's questions to SolarWinds Corp (SWI) leadership

Question · Q2 2024

Sought to understand the confidence behind raising full-year guidance and whether an accelerated pace of maintenance-to-subscription migrations was a contributing factor.

Answer

Confidence in the raised guidance comes from strong H1 performance and stable demand from existing customers. The growth in subscription is driven by the geographic expansion of the conversion program across all regions, rather than an acceleration in the pace of individual migrations.

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