Question · Q3 2025
Park Hyun-wook asked about the fourth-quarter steel market outlook, specifically the impact of anti-dumping measures on hot rolls from China and Japan, and requested guidance for POSCO Holdings' steel market perspective for the upcoming year. He also inquired about the company's countermeasures for increasing carbon-related costs, including the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and carbon trade emissions (ETS), and the potential annual sales volume impact of POSCO International's Alaska LNG project. Additionally, he sought clarification on POSCO Holdings' strategies to address reduced EU duty-free quotas and increased tariffs.
Answer
Lee Joo-Tae, Head of Marketing Strategy, explained that Q4 hot roll anti-dumping effects are difficult to link directly due to pre-imposed imports and non-peak season, expecting inventory to clear and a positive real estate market impact by year-end. For next year, global steel growth is estimated at 1-2%, with US/Europe demand picking up, while China's demand is expected to decline. Hong Joon Young from the Trade and Investment Office detailed that CBAM implementation from 2026 might see costs deferred to 2027 due to streamlined laws, with certification burdens increasing annually amid regulatory uncertainties. Jin Young Joo from POSCO Environment Energy added that Phase 4 ETS allowances are drastically reduced, potentially requiring credit purchases from 2027, with countermeasures including a 2025 electric arc furnace and increased scrap use. Wuyong Dae from the Infra Project Team stated the Alaska LNG project is under review due to investment risks, but if realized, could supply 300,000 tons of steel over three years (2026-2028).