Patrick Kenny

Patrick Kenny asked about Emera Energy's performance in 2025, which exceeded revised guidance, and whether similar upside potential is expected for 2026 given market dynamics. He also inquired about flexibilities within the CAD 20 billion capital plan to defer projects due to cost inflation or FX rates, and sought an update on the New Brunswick intertie project's engineering and construction progress towards its 2028 in-service date.

Answer

Judy Steele, COO, Emera, expects Emera Energy's 2026 results to be in line with 2025, while maintaining the general guidance of 15-30, noting favorable abnormal weather in Q1 2025. Scott Balfour, President and CEO, explained that the 7-8% rate base growth target would lead to reprofiling projects if inflationary or FX pressures drive costs up, ensuring affordability and durability of growth. Jared Green, CFO, added that utilities have some flexibility to adjust the scope of the $20 billion plan. Peter Gregg, Former President and CEO of Nova Scotia Power, confirmed that the New Brunswick intertie project is on track for its 2028 in-service date, with land preparation and forestry work completed, and foundation pours expected in spring.

Patrick Kenny questioned Emera Energy's 2025 performance, which exceeded revised guidance, asking about expected market dynamics normalization and similar upside potential for 2026. He also inquired about flexibilities within the CAD 20 billion capital plan to defer projects if cost inflation or FX rates move unfavorably, to manage affordability pressures. Additionally, he sought an update on the engineering and construction progress of the New Brunswick intertie towards its 2028 in-service date.

Answer

Judy Steele, COO, stated that 2026 Emera Energy results are expected to be in line with 2025, but the normal guidance of 15-30 remains, noting abnormal weather in Q1 2025. Scott Balfour, President and CEO, explained that if inflationary or FX pressures increase costs, projects would be reprofiled to avoid excessive rate pressure, ensuring durability of the 7%-8% rate base growth. Jared Green, CFO, added that utilities have some flexibility to adjust scope, balancing affordability, safety, reliability, and growth. Peter Gregg, former President and CEO of Nova Scotia Power, confirmed land preparation and forestry work for the New Brunswick intertie, with foundation pours expected in spring, keeping it on track for the 2028 in-service date.

Patrick Kenny asked about potential macro or political tailwinds that could help FortisBC and Fortis Alberta close their rate base growth gap relative to the portfolio average over the next three to five years, mentioning the Okanagan and LNG opportunities. He then asked Jocelyn Perry about her comfort level with the sustained cash flow-to-debt ratio of 12.4% and the amount of 'dry powder' available for capital program flexibility or to handle Canadian dollar weakness.

Answer

David Hutchens, President and CEO, highlighted growth opportunities in the Okanagan Electric Service Territory and LNG expansion at Tilbury, including increased bunkering capacity, as potential drivers for FortisBC. He noted political tailwinds supporting LNG investments in BC, potentially impacting additional projects. Jocelyn Perry, Executive VP and CFO, confirmed that the average cash flow-to-debt ratio of 12.4% provides ample cushion, especially in the latter part of the plan where it pushes 100 basis points above S&P's 12% threshold. She stated that this cushion offers significant flexibility to finance projects not yet in the capital plan and that the current plan has improved over the prior one due to asset dispositions and the DRIP.

Patrick Kenny asked about potential macro or political tailwinds that could help FortisBC and Fortis Alberta close the gap in rate base CAGRs relative to the portfolio average over the next three to five years. He also asked Jocelyn Perry about the sustained target for the five-year average cash flow-to-debt ratio and the amount of dry powder available for capital program flexibility or Canadian dollar weakness.

Answer

David Hutchens, President and CEO of Fortis Inc., highlighted growth opportunities in Okanagan (BC electric business), additional LNG liquefaction capacity for marine bunkering at Tilbury, and political emphasis on LNG investments in BC. Jocelyn Perry, Executive VP and CFO, clarified that while the average cash flow-to-debt ratio is 12.4%, the latter part of the plan targets a 75-100 basis point cushion above the 12% threshold, providing ample dry powder and flexibility.

Patrick Kenny asked about potential new generation or partnership opportunities in British Columbia following BC Hydro's recent call for power, and inquired about any potential offsets to the lower ROE at FortisAlberta.

Answer

CEO of FortisBC Roger Dall’Antonia, joining the call, noted that BC Hydro's call for power creates long-term opportunities for capacity and infrastructure, though immediate impacts are limited. President and CEO David Hutchens added that the modest ROE decrease at FortisAlberta is manageable within their plan and does not require significant changes to their capital or cost strategy.

Patrick Kenny of National Bank Financial inquired about the opportunity set and funding capacity for the PGI joint venture, and asked for an outlook on Pembina's consolidated internal funding capacity for 2026.

Answer

SVP & COO Jaret Sprott detailed PGI's strategy of focusing on high-quality, liquid-rich resources and highlighted brownfield expansion opportunities in sour gas processing. SVP & CFO Cameron Goldade confirmed PGI has ample funding capacity, with several hundred million in liquidity plus an accordion facility, and that capital is not a constraint. On a consolidated basis, Cameron Goldade reiterated the 3.5-4.0x leverage target, noting that while metrics will rise due to Cedar LNG construction, the balance sheet remains strong and free cash flow is expected to be neutral to slightly positive over a multi-year period.

Patrick Kenny of National Bank Financial asked about Pembina's NGL market diversification strategy and the progress of remarketing capacity at the Cedar LNG project, including interest in a potential expansion.

Answer

SVP Chris Scherman highlighted a focus on optimizing West Coast propane exports and evaluating opportunities for butane. CEO Scott Burrows stated that patience on remarketing Cedar LNG capacity has paid off, driven by growing NEBC gas supply, strong arbitrage, and the project being a year into construction. He confirmed there is demand for a Cedar 2 expansion, but the gating item remains securing capacity on Coastal GasLink or other transport solutions.

Patrick Kenny asked about potential risk mitigation for cost overruns in the Greenlight partnership, future infrastructure needs in Northeast B.C. post-LNG Canada Phase II, and an update on the Western pipeline system's abandonment application.

Answer

Executive Stuart Taylor confirmed Pembina is a 50% partner with strong governance controls and is confident in Kineticor's development capabilities. Executive Jaret Sprott stated that NE B.C. will require significant new infrastructure, including another fractionator, to meet expected growth. He also noted the Western pipeline's abandonment is due to its age, and the financial impact is immaterial.

Patrick Kenny requested an explanation for the accounting loss on the Alliance and Aux Sable consolidation and its future impact on the tax rate. He also asked about scope changes and cost pressures for the RFS IV project and whether these costs impacted the economics of the PGI Whitecap transaction.

Answer

SVP and CFO Cameron Goldade explained the loss was a non-cash accounting requirement for a step acquisition, offset by a deferred tax recovery, resulting in a negligible net impact. SVP Jaret Sprott detailed that RFS IV cost increases were due to design modifications for feedstock flexibility, inflation, and a strategic shift to a lump-sum contract to mitigate labor and execution risk. He confirmed the project's sanctioned metrics have actually improved due to new contracts and that the Whitecap deal economics remain in line with expectations.

Patrick Kenny of National Bank Financial requested an update on the Ingleside terminal's throughput and expansion progress, and asked about potential pivots for NGL export opportunities.

Answer

EVP of Liquids Pipelines Colin Gruending reported that volumes at Ingleside are growing 'up and to the right,' with optimizations like connecting to an adjacent dock underway. He and CEO Gregory Ebel reiterated that the strategy remains to leverage Ingleside's advantages for other commodities like NGLs and clean ammonia, suggesting any new locations would more likely be along the Gulf Coast rather than in Canada.

Patrick Kenny asked if Enbridge is still actively pursuing minority sell-down opportunities with indigenous groups. He also requested more color on the contracting profile of the Ingleside export facility and its competitive positioning against other Gulf Coast terminals.

Answer

President and CEO Greg Ebel confirmed the company is actively pursuing indigenous partnerships across its businesses, not as a funding tool but as a strategic priority for relationship-building and project delivery. Colin Gruending, EVP of Liquids Pipelines, described Ingleside as the #1 U.S. export terminal, well-positioned to capture its share of growing Permian volumes. He expressed confidence that Ingleside will compete effectively against potential new offshore terminals due to its significant advantages.

Patrick Kenny inquired about the evolution of inbound business development interest from upstream and downstream customers and asked if prolonged pressure restrictions might bring the 'Big Sky' open season back into consideration.

Answer

President and CEO Bevin Wirzba reported encouraging and consistent interest from customers on both ends of the system since becoming an independent company, noting the team is building a strong hopper of opportunities. Regarding 'Big Sky', Wirzba confirmed the open season was closed for commercial reasons but stated the team has not stopped exploring other opportunities to leverage that corridor for growth, independent of the outlook for uncommitted volumes.

Patrick Kenny asked if the company would accelerate spending to manage earnings given the strong start to the year and whether it might raise equity capital earlier than planned due to its healthy valuation.

Answer

President and CEO David Lebeter responded that the company will remain focused on its approved budget envelopes to show fiscal prudence. CFO Harry Taylor added that significant costs from a recent ice storm preclude any 'over-earning' concerns and that while an early equity raise is tempting, the company does not currently need the capital and will prioritize managing dilution.

Patrick Kenny inquired about Hydro One's labor relations strategy ahead of its 2025 union contract expirations. He also asked if lower financing costs are accelerating LDC consolidation opportunities.

Answer

President and CEO David Lebeter expressed confidence in maintaining a constructive relationship with the company's unions, highlighting continuous engagement between bargaining periods as key to avoiding disputes. On LDC consolidation, he noted that while interest from potential sellers has increased, it is driven more by their own financing needs rather than the lower interest rate environment.

Patrick Kenny questioned if TransAlta is agnostic on customer type for the Centralia redevelopment and how its returns compare to Keephills. He also asked about potential interest in British Columbia's call for power and the expected trend for ancillary services value in Alberta under the new REM design.

Answer

CEO John Kousinioris stated that returns from repurposing legacy assets like Centralia are superior to typical greenfield or M&A projects. He clarified that the company's growth focus is on the Western U.S., not B.C. Regarding Alberta's REM, Kousinioris and EVP Blain van Melle expressed optimism, anticipating increased volumes and better pricing for ancillary services over time, which will benefit their flexible fleet.

Patrick Kenny asked for clarification on the drivers behind higher sustaining capital and interest expense in the 2025 guidance. He also inquired about TransAlta's view on contracting assets with AESO versus private data center customers, and how it plans to offer green power options.

Answer

President and CEO John Kousinioris and EVP & CFO Joel Hunter attributed higher sustaining capital to the integration of Heartland assets and dam safety projects. John Kousinioris stated that contracting thermal assets directly with data centers offers more value than AESO reliability products. He also explained that green options can be provided by bundling environmental attributes from their hydro and wind portfolio, offering power from merchant wind assets, and developing new projects like Tempus.

Patrick Kenny asked about the strategic merits of the Heartland Generation transaction versus new opportunities, potential alternatives if the deal fails, details on repowering and re-contracting at Alberta legacy sites, and the new CFO's perspective on capital recycling.

Answer

CEO John Kousinioris affirmed TransAlta's commitment to the Heartland deal's original investment thesis but noted the company will remain disciplined amid regulatory review. He highlighted significant redevelopment opportunities at legacy sites in Alberta and Washington for data centers and grid reliability. Kousinioris mentioned that discussions for re-contracting are in early stages and could take various forms. EVP & CFO Joel Hunter, in his first month, stated that capital recycling will be an important, opportunistic part of the strategy to add shareholder value, such as selling a higher-multiple asset to fund a lower-multiple one.

Patrick Kenny inquired about the commercial demand and decision timing for the Dimsdale storage expansion. He also asked about the remaining capacity in the Montney gas processing portfolio and the long-term target for contracted EBITDA, questioning if strong Midstream performance could lead to utility divestitures.

Answer

Randy Toone, President of Midstream, stated that a decision on the Dimsdale storage project is expected around the end of Q2 or early Q3, ahead of other potential expansions like Pipestone III. Vern Yu, President and CEO, confirmed the company's long-term goal of reaching 90% contracted EBITDA by 2027 and affirmed there are no plans to sell any rate-regulated assets, citing their robust growth prospects. D. James Harbilas, EVP and CFO, added that the utility business is credit positive and important for the company's business mix.

Patrick Kenny of National Bank Financial inquired about the commercial demand and potential FID timing for the Dimsdale storage expansion. He also asked about the remaining capacity in the Montney gas processing portfolio and the timing for a potential large-scale expansion. Lastly, he questioned the company's long-term target for contracted EBITDA and whether strong Midstream performance might allow for utility divestitures.

Answer

Randy Toone, President of Midstream, indicated a decision on the Dimsdale project is expected by early Q3 2025, ahead of other expansions, and that a new gas processing plant could be considered for 2026 given strong demand. CEO Vern Yu stated the company is comfortable with its target of ~90% contracted EBITDA by 2027 and has no plans to sell any utility assets. CFO D. James Harbilas added that the utility business is valued for its growth and positive contribution to the company's credit profile.

Patrick Kenny from National Bank Financial asked about the current commercial demand and potential FID timing for the Dimsdale storage expansion. He also inquired about remaining capacity in the Montney gas processing portfolio and the outlook for sanctioning a new large-scale plant. Finally, he asked about the long-term target for contracted EBITDA and if this provides flexibility for utility asset sales.

Answer

President of Midstream, Randy Toone, stated that a decision on the Dimsdale storage project is expected around the end of Q2 or early Q3 2025, ahead of other potential expansions. Toone noted that while the Townsend facility has some white space, the focus is on Pipestone II, with a potential Pipestone III being considered for 2026. President and CEO Vern Yu confirmed the company is comfortable with its target of 90% contracted EBITDA by 2027 and has no plans to sell any rate-regulated assets, citing their strong growth prospects and credit benefits, a point echoed by EVP and CFO James Harbilas.

Patrick Kenny from National Bank Financial asked about commercial demand for the Dimsdale storage expansion, the remaining capacity in the Montney gas processing portfolio, and the long-term target for contracted EBITDA, questioning if it allows for utility divestitures.

Answer

Randy Toone, President of Midstream, stated a decision on the Dimsdale storage project is expected by early Q3 2025 and that while existing plants are largely full, there is demand for a future Pipestone III project. President and CEO Vern Yu confirmed the goal is to reach 90% contracted EBITDA by 2027 and stated there are no plans to sell any utility assets, citing their strong growth prospects. CFO James Harbilas added that the utility business is credit positive and important for the business mix.

Patrick Kenny of National Bank Financial inquired about the commercial demand and timing for the Dimsdale storage expansion. He also asked about remaining capacity in the Montney gas processing portfolio and the long-term target for contracted EBITDA, questioning if strong Midstream performance could lead to utility divestitures.

Answer

Randy Toone, President of Midstream, stated that a final investment decision on the Dimsdale storage project is expected by early Q3, ahead of other potential expansions like Pipestone III. He noted that with existing plants now largely full, the company is evaluating a new gas processing plant for 2026. President and CEO Vern Yu confirmed a target of ~90% contracted EBITDA by 2027 and stated there are no plans to sell any utility assets, citing their robust growth prospects. CFO James Harbilas added that the utility business is also credit positive and important for the overall business mix.

Patrick Kenny asked for an update on commercial support for a potential Pipestone Phase III expansion and Dimsdale storage expansion. He also inquired about the opportunities and willingness to export ammonia from the REEF facility.

Answer

President of Midstream Randy Toone confirmed active discussions for Pipestone III, contingent on acid gas disposal, and noted strong interest in expanding Dimsdale storage. President and CEO Dai-Chung Yu stated that the REEF facility will be fully capable of exporting ammonia, but the primary challenges are upstream production and rail transportation, not the terminal itself.

Patrick Kenny inquired about near-term industrial opportunities from rising gas demand, such as data centers, for WGL and SEMCO, and the positioning of the Blythe power plant. He also asked for an update on the Trigon litigation and its potential impact on REEF customer contracts.

Answer

EVP & President of Utilities Blue Jenkins confirmed active studies for building gas infrastructure to data centers in the WGL territory. EVP & CFO James Harbilas noted Blythe is well-positioned to benefit from higher power demand. President and CEO Vern Yu clarified the Trigon litigation is with the Port Authority and is not impacting strong commercial demand for REEF.

Asked about the methodology for normalizing FX in the FFO-to-debt ratio, the company's capital investment priorities between reliability, decarbonization, and affordability, and the timing for the NYSE dual listing.

Answer

Greg Blunden (executive) explained that the FFO-to-debt calculation normalizes FX using an average annual rate and that the NYSE dual listing is expected in the spring. Scott Balfour (executive) stated that the company prioritizes reliability and affordability, with decarbonization investments being driven by government policy and cost-effectiveness.

Asked about the potential costs and recovery timing for Tampa Electric to comply with new GHG rules, and whether the company might upsize its ATM program.

Answer

The cost of complying with new GHG rules is nominal for Tampa Electric due to past proactive measures, with the only impact being a one-year acceleration of a single plant's retirement. The company has not made a decision on upsizing its ATM program at this time.

Patrick Kenny from National Bank Financial asked about the need for additional natural gas storage capacity across North America and requested an update on the Bruce C new-build nuclear project assessment.

Answer

CEO Francois Poirier acknowledged a need for more storage, particularly in the U.S. Gulf Coast, but stated TC Energy will remain focused on integrated, rate-regulated assets for LDC reliability. Executive Annesley Wallace reported that the Bruce C impact assessment is in its very early days and will take years to complete, with the primary focus remaining on the existing fleet's life extension.