Patrick O'Rourke • ATB Capital Markets

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CFO Victor Durell explained that strong projected cash flow should reduce future refinancing needs for the 2027 maturities. President Scott Seltz added that the company is actively pursuing secondary recovery, highlighting a promising Palmer flood test in the Clearwater formation and an implemented waterflood at its Smith asset.

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Scott Stauth, President, stated that the company hopes to re-engage with governments on the Pathways project soon but provided no specific timeline. For the Kirby project, he clarified it is not yet at a steady state. While some wells perform to expectation, others require mechanical workovers to optimize performance, and the company is gathering more data before expanding the solvent injection strategy.

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President Scott Stauth stated that while there is no firm timeline for a Pathways update, the company is eager to re-engage with governments. He clarified that the Kirby project is not yet at a steady state; while overall results are positive, some wells require mechanical workovers to optimize performance before expanding the technology.

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President Scott Stauth reiterated that CNQ is content with its organic growth opportunities but will remain opportunistic on accretive M&A, consistent with its long-term strategy. On Kirby North, he advised not to read into the minor recovery change, expecting a stable state by mid-year. He confirmed they are evaluating expansion of the solvent technology to other assets like Pike for 2027-2028.

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CFO Mark Stainthorpe explained that for high-liquids Montney wells, the economics work even at current forward strip prices. For lower-liquids wells, a stronger price would be needed. He clarified that the PrairieSky share sale proceeds are outside the free cash flow calculation for shareholder returns. The timing of the sale was simply opportune to capture good value from the investment.

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EVP of Oil Sands Peter Zebedee stated that Fort Hills has demonstrated stream-day capacities exceeding 220,000 barrels per day, and the team is focused on achieving this reliably. On M&A, President and CEO Rich Kruger emphasized that the focus is on maximizing value from internal opportunities first, which provides a strong benchmark for evaluating any external deals, stating the company is focused on being more valuable, not just bigger.

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CFO Kris Smith expects a working capital build in Q1 2025, reversing some of the Q4 release, but noted underlying structural improvements are occurring. He assured that as confidence in these structural releases grows, the cash will be returned to shareholders. CEO Richard Kruger reiterated the capital allocation framework, which prioritizes a reliable and growing dividend, quality investments, and returning surplus cash, emphasizing the commitment to shareholder returns is as high as ever.

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President & CEO Jon McKenzie attributed the Canadian downstream cost improvements to higher utilization, reliability, and lower gas prices, driven by tactical 'blocking and tackling.' For the U.S. downstream, he stated there is 'probably another $2 per barrel' of cost savings that can be achieved over time through a deliberate and safe journey.

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Jon McKenzie, Director, President & CEO, attributed the Canadian downstream cost improvements to higher utilization, tactical cost management, and lower natural gas prices. For the U.S. downstream, he identified crude slate, product placement, and unit costs as key margin drivers, stating there is likely 'another $2 per barrel' of cost savings to be achieved over time through a deliberate, safety-focused approach.

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CFO Kam Sandhar differentiated the base dividend as a core commitment, while buybacks and preferred share redemptions are discretionary and value-driven. Executive Geoff Murray attributed the strong conventional margin to better AECO gas pricing and significant value uplift from proprietary pipeline capacity. CEO Jon McKenzie noted the company's current focus remains on its four key strategic priorities.

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Executive Keith Chiasson expressed excitement about the conventional heavy oil program, noting active drilling and potential for 20,000 bbl/d of growth over 3-5 years within a highly integrated value chain. Executive Geoff Murray explained that the TMX market is still developing, with volumes currently split between Asia and PADD V. He noted PADD V is testing various crude types, and global shipping economics are influencing trade flows.

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CEO Bradley Corson emphasized that Imperial's renewable diesel project is differentiated by its integration into the Strathcona refinery, proximity to feedstocks, proprietary catalyst, and a built-in base demand, making it robust. On the Pathways Alliance, Mr. Corson reaffirmed the members' commitment to decarbonization and stated that discussions with governments are ongoing to secure the necessary fiscal and regulatory support. He acknowledged the urgency but confirmed that foundational work continues.

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Bradley Corson, Chairman, President and CEO, expressed high confidence in achieving the 280,000 bpd target for Kearl this year and confirmed the team is working on projects to reach 300,000 bpd. On the downstream, he noted stable product demand and recent strengthening in crack spreads, positioning Imperial well for Q3.

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Bradley Corson, Chairman, President and CEO, detailed that Kearl's cost improvements are driven by initiatives like the completed autonomous haul truck conversion and more efficient turnarounds. He noted Cold Lake's costs are more sensitive to fuel gas prices but will benefit by about $1/bbl from the Grand Rapids startup. Dan Lyons, SVP of Finance and Administration, added that working capital is volatile but the significant negative impact in Q1 is not expected to repeat, with some reversal of the inventory build possible over the year.

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