Patrick Scholes

Patrick Scholes asked for the reasons behind the Q4 adjusted EBITDA miss despite strong RevPAR, and also inquired about the booking trends for the ALG Vacations business.

Answer

CFO Joan Bottarini explained the miss was primarily due to onetime G&A costs, including bad debt reserves, and lower-than-expected performance in the distribution business. The latter was impacted by a hurricane and softer bookings for lower-tier hotel chains served by ALG Vacations. She expects the distribution segment to be flat to incrementally positive in 2025.

Patrick Scholes inquired about the latest development trends within Marriott's APAC and Greater China regions, seeking insights into rooms growth and signing activity.

Answer

CFO Leeny Oberg expressed enthusiasm for double-digit rooms growth and disproportionate share of signings in both APAC and Greater China. She noted APAC's pipeline is 15% of total (vs. 8% existing rooms) with strong growth in India, Indonesia, and Japan across all chain scales. Greater China's pipeline is 18% of total (vs. 11% existing rooms), concentrated in the upscale tier due to lower volatility and unit costs, with year-to-date room signings up 24% year-over-year. President and CEO Tony Capuano reiterated the 24% year-over-year increase in Greater China room signings through Q3.

Patrick Scholes asked for an update on the latest development environment trends specifically within the APAC and Greater China regions.

Answer

Leeny Oberg (CFO and EVP of Development) reported double-digit rooms growth and a disproportionate share of signings in Asia. She highlighted rapid economic growth in APAC (India, Indonesia, Japan) driving demand for lodging, with Marriott outperforming competitors. In Greater China, growth is concentrated in the upscale tier due to lower volatility and unit costs, with strong demand for Marriott brands. Tony Capuano (President and CEO) added that year-to-date room signings in Greater China are up 24% year-over-year.

Patrick Scholes from Truist Securities asked if the uptick in group booking attrition reported by other operators was a broader trend seen across Marriott's portfolio. He questioned how potential attrition might affect the reported 6% group pace for the current year.

Answer

CEO Tony Capuano stated that higher attrition is 'not a trend we're seeing across our broader state' and suggested it might be an issue specific to certain types of properties. CFO Leeny Oberg added that any moderation in the final group numbers typically results from 'in the year, for the year' booking patterns rather than cancellations.

Patrick Scholes of Truist Securities asked about Marriott's appetite for tuck-in acquisitions in the coming year and whether the company was observing any travel pullback from Canadian and Mexican visitors due to political tensions.

Answer

CEO Tony Capuano stated that the company's capital allocation philosophy remains unchanged, with a focus on organic growth, but they will consider tuck-in acquisitions to fill strategic gaps. CFO Leeny Oberg noted it was too soon to see any impact from Canadian and Mexican travelers, emphasizing that they represent a very small portion of U.S. room nights.

Patrick Scholes requested an update on the search for a new brand president for Norwegian Cruise Line. He also asked for clarification on the changes in Oceania's selling strategy, specifically regarding recent unbundlings.

Answer

Harry Sommer (President and CEO) stated that an extensive search for a world-class NCL brand president is deep into the process, with an announcement hoped for soon. He described Oceania's selling strategy changes, including recent unbundlings, as 'relatively modest,' based on customer value data, designed to optimize for guests and maximize yields and margins. He expressed satisfaction with Oceania's consistent booking levels.

Patrick Scholes asked for an update on the progress of finding a new brand president for Norwegian Cruise Line and about the changes in selling strategy, specifically recent unbundlings, with the Oceania brand.

Answer

Harry Sommer (President and CEO) stated that the search for a new brand president is extensive and deep, attracting world-class talent, with an announcement hoped for soon. Regarding Oceania's selling strategy, he described recent changes as "relatively modest," aligning promotions with customer value to optimize yields and margins, and expressed satisfaction with Oceania's consistent bookings and revenue.

Patrick Scholes requested an update on the progress and timing of the new pier at Great Stirrup Cay and asked about any potential future developments for the private island.

Answer

CEO Harry Sommer confirmed the new pier is on schedule to open in Q4 2024, which will enable the company to double the number of guest visits starting in 2026, creating a 'virtuous cycle' of satisfaction and revenue. While the company constantly reviews assets for ROI and guest experience improvements, he had no further developments to announce for the island at this time.

Patrick Scholes from Truist Securities questioned the dividend coverage at the lower end of the fiscal 2026 guidance, asking about the company's comfort with potentially taking on debt to maintain the dividend and their acceptable net leverage ratios. He also followed up by inquiring about trends in international guest visitation, specifically for Mexico, Europe, and Canadians, and whether any "negative rhetoric" has impacted the pace of sales since the May update.

Answer

CEO Rob Katz expressed strong comfort with current leverage ratios, citing the business's stability as justification for current dividend levels and willingness to slightly increase leverage if needed. He clarified that any future dividend increases would require material improvements in free cash flow. Regarding international guests, Katz stated that no trends were material enough to affect overall results, noting no specific evidence of a shift in future international visitation. He acknowledged a historical decline in international visitation over the past 5-8 years due to factors like the strong dollar and past rhetoric, but does not see it as a major issue for the upcoming season.

Patrick Scholes asked about the company's dividend coverage, noting that at the low end of the guidance, the dividend might not be fully covered by free cash flow. He inquired about the company's comfort with taking on debt to maintain the dividend and their acceptable net leverage ratios. He also asked about trends in international guest pass sales, specifically for Mexico, Europe, and Canada, and if negative rhetoric has impacted the pace since the May update.

Answer

CEO Rob Katz affirmed comfort with current leverage ratios, citing business stability, and expressed comfort with maintaining current dividend levels even if it means a slight increase in leverage. He clarified that a material improvement in free cash flow would be required for a dividend increase. Regarding international guests, Mr. Katz stated there are no material trends significantly affecting overall results and no specific evidence of a shift in future international visitation. He acknowledged a decline in international visitation over the past 5-8 years due to various factors but does not see it as a major issue for the upcoming season.

Patrick Scholes of Truist Securities asked for an opinion on the performance gap between Epic Pass and the competitor Icon Pass, which is reportedly seeing sales growth. He also asked for the rationale behind Vail's centralized operating strategy versus a competitor's decentralized approach.

Answer

CEO Kirsten Lynch attributed the difference in pass sales growth to different stages in the product life cycle, noting Epic Pass is a more mature product now targeting lower-frequency skiers. Regarding operations, Lynch clarified that Vail centralizes support functions like HR and finance for efficiency, but core mountain operations decisions (terrain, labor, safety) are decentralized and managed at the resort level, a strategy she believes is highly successful.

Patrick Scholes asked about non-price promotional activities, such as add-ons or cabin upgrades, and whether there have been any changes in strategy this spring. He also sought to confirm that booking trends accelerated in April with no softness.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Torstein Hagen stated that Viking's primary method is to 'market more' and that the company shies away from other promotional incentives, confirming no change in this strategy. President and CFO Leah Talactac confirmed his understanding was correct, stating, 'Yes, that's right,' in response to the observation of accelerating booking trends in April.

Patrick Scholes asked if there had been any change in non-price promotional activities, such as add-ons or cabin upgrades, compared to historical norms. He also sought direct confirmation that booking trends in April showed no softness and were, in fact, accelerating.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Torstein Hagen responded that Viking's strategy is to 'market more' and avoid such incentives, confirming there has been no change in their promotional approach. President and CFO Leah Talactac explicitly confirmed that booking trends in April were accelerating and showed no softness.

Patrick Scholes asked for an update on Viking's capital return strategy, noting the company's rapidly improving and soon-to-be underlevered balance sheet. He followed up by asking if Viking intends to maintain a more conservative long-term leverage profile than its peers.

Answer

CFO Leah Talactac reiterated the commitment to a balanced capital allocation framework, prioritizing reinvestment in the business and maintaining a large cash reserve for flexibility and potential acquisitions. She stated that dividends or share buybacks are not currently contemplated and that the company has not set specific leverage targets as it is in a growth period.

Patrick Scholes of Truist Securities questioned if the low-teens growth expectation for ancillary revenues still holds given declining consumer confidence and asked for a clarification of what constitutes 'contracted' revenue.

Answer

CFO Michele Allen reaffirmed the low-teens growth forecast for ancillary revenues in 2025, with further growth expected in 2026. She explained that a significant portion is contract-based, providing durability. The largest driver, the co-branded credit card, is insulated from RevPAR swings as only one-third of card spend is in the travel category. She clarified that 'contracted' revenue refers to agreements, like with licensees, that have a minimum payment floor, providing a stable base.

Patrick Scholes asked for an update on the company's franchisee retention rate, whether it is approaching the 96% target, and if there is a difference between U.S. and international retention.

Answer

CFO Michele Allen and CEO Geoffrey Ballotti reported significant progress, with the global retention rate now at 95.7%, up 40 basis points year-over-year. They described the 96% level as a 'first stop' with room for further improvement. They emphasized a focus on improving the global rate by swapping lower-value terminations for higher-value new rooms, but did not provide a U.S. versus international breakout.

Patrick Scholes asked if Hilton's franchisees are experiencing the significant construction cost increases of 20-40% that have been reported by franchisees of competing hotel companies.

Answer

CFO and President, Global Development, Kevin Jacobs responded with a direct 'No.' He stated that while such high increases were an initial fear, they have not materialized for Hilton's developers. He clarified that construction costs were trending up in the mid-single-digit range (3-5%) coming into the year, and that trend has remained stable.

Patrick Scholes inquired about the potential impact of tariffs on Hilton's franchisees and developers, asking what management is hearing from these partners and how the company is mitigating risks.

Answer

Christopher Nassetta, President and CEO, stated that there has been no real impact so far, viewing tariffs as part of broader trade negotiations. He expressed confidence that major tariffs will likely be avoided. Furthermore, he highlighted that Hilton has aggressively diversified its supply chains over the last five years, creating flexibility to pivot and source products from various parts of the world, which significantly mitigates potential disruption.

Patrick Scholes asked about Hilton's ROI targets when developing brands internally versus acquiring them, and whether recent 'tuck-in' brand acquisitions were immediately accretive to earnings.

Answer

CFO Kevin Jacobs explained that the ROI for building brands organically is 'near infinite,' making it the preferred path from a pure financial perspective. However, he confirmed that recent strategic acquisitions, like Graduate Hotels, were structured to be accretive 'out of the box.' These deals allowed Hilton to acquire specific strategic assets by taking advantage of favorable conditions in the market.

Patrick Scholes of Truist Securities inquired about the performance of the summer rental business for non-owners and the sales mix between existing owners and new buyers, questioning if a shift towards more upgrades was occurring.

Answer

President and CEO Michael Brown stated that summer rental demand and forward bookings are solid and in line with expectations. He clarified that the new owner sales mix in Q1 returned to historical levels after an unusually high 2023. Mr. Brown confirmed that while owner close rates were slightly up and new owner close rates were slightly down, the company's long-term target for a 35-40% new owner mix remains unchanged.

Patrick Scholes asked about the expected impact of the current interest rate environment in 2025 and the timeline for Sports Illustrated announcements.

Answer

Executive Michael Hug stated that due to rising benchmark rates, the impact from ABS interest expense in 2025 is now expected to be flat to a slight headwind, rather than a tailwind. President and CEO Michael Brown confirmed that the company expects to announce new Sports Illustrated locations this year, with a focus on property conversions to accelerate the timeline for starting sales in 2025.

Patrick Scholes, also known as Charles Scholes, requested an update on the Sports Illustrated initiative, including its current status, long-term vision, and the potential timeline to achieve a previously mentioned scale of $300 million to $500 million in business.

Answer

CFO Michael Hug clarified that new brands like Sports Illustrated are expected to collectively become a $300-$400 million business over the long term. He suggested a growth cadence similar to the Wyndham 'Blue Thread' partnership, projecting an annual ramp-up of approximately $25-$30 million once sales commence.

Patrick Scholes of Truist Securities followed up on the company's comment about geopolitical volatility, asking if this had a tangible impact on the booking pace as the quarter progressed.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein acknowledged that while there were ups and downs, the overall result was strong, suggesting people are adapting to a 'new normal.' He highlighted that recent booking volumes were ahead year-over-year, and close-in bookings for the second quarter were 'off the charts,' indicating resilient demand despite the backdrop.

Patrick Scholes asked for an update on proposed passenger tax increases in Mexico and the potential impact on itineraries. He also noted a divergence in the growth rates of passenger ticket revenue and commissions, asking if this indicated a shift to more direct bookings.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein stated the Mexico tax is 'not a done deal' and that the company is in active dialogue with the government, which he believes was misinformed. The potential tax is not in the forecast and would affect less than 5% of 2025 itineraries. CFO David Bernstein addressed the revenue versus commission question, stating there was no significant channel shift to report and that minor quarterly variations can be caused by currency and air travel mix.

Patrick Scholes requested more granular, quarter-by-quarter detail on the expected increase in dry dock days for 2025. He also asked about long-term development plans for Half Moon Cay beyond the new pier, such as the addition of a water park.

Answer

CFO David Bernstein deferred the dry dock question, advising a follow-up with investor relations for specific details. CEO Josh Weinstein addressed the Half Moon Cay plans, stating there are more enhancements coming but "absolutely not" a water park. He emphasized that Half Moon Cay's appeal is its "naturally beautiful white sand beach," which they intend to preserve, contrasting it with the entertainment-focused Celebration Key.

Asked for clarification on the 2025 outlook regarding tour flow and VPG growth, the mechanics of the new financing optimization program, and whether HGV experienced similar sales softness in February as a peer.

Answer

Executives expect mid-to-high single-digit contract sales growth in 2025, driven by low to mid-single-digit growth in both tours and VPG. The financing optimization program involves increasing the pace of securitizations to generate more immediate cash for share repurchases, ramping over 18 months. Unlike a peer, HGV has not seen any sales softness in February and momentum from Q4 has continued.

Patrick Scholes from Truist Securities asked for a granular breakdown of the 2025 G&A forecast, seeking to understand the net impact of various pushes and pulls—such as higher incentive compensation and IT spending versus cost savings—on the 2024 baseline G&A of $243 million.

Answer

Jason Marino, EVP and CFO, confirmed a ~$15-20 million increase from incentive compensation and higher IT project spending. John Geller, President and CEO, clarified that cost savings from the modernization initiative are spread across business lines, not just G&A. Marino then specified that approximately $10 million of the savings are expected to benefit the G&A line item.

Patrick Scholes asked what level of total expense growth is assumed in the midpoint of the company's 2025 guidance.

Answer

Bryan Giglia, Chief Executive Officer, responded that the guidance bakes in total expense growth in the 4% to 4.5% range. This figure accounts for higher labor costs, easing real estate taxes, stable insurance costs from a mid-year renewal, and slightly higher utility expenses.

Patrick Scholes asked if Park Hotels has observed any impact on Canadian travel to its Florida properties, given that Canada is a key international source market for the state.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Thomas Baltimore responded that they have not seen any softening or slowdown in demand from Canadian travelers at their Florida properties at this point, but they continue to monitor the situation.

Patrick Scholes asked for expectations on inbound Japanese travel to Hawaii for Q4 and 2025, and whether Hilton is proactively notifying guests about the ongoing labor strikes.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Thomas Baltimore stated that the 2024 forecast for Japanese visitors is now around 720,000, down from earlier estimates due to weather but still up 22% year-over-year. He anticipates a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels by 2026-2027. Regarding guest notifications, he explained that the operator (Hilton) handles communications and that the strikes are publicly known. He also noted progress, with labor agreements reached in Boston and San Jose.

Patrick Scholes from Truist Securities questioned why the 2025 EBITDA growth guidance is in the mid-single digits, below the previously communicated long-term target of high-single digits, and also asked about any observed impact from immigration issues on franchisee labor.

Answer

CEO Patrick Pacious attributed the moderated guidance primarily to the high-interest-rate environment muting new construction across the industry. He noted that a pickup in new construction and stronger RevPAR performance could push results to the higher end of the range. Regarding the second question, Pacious stated they have not heard of any impact on franchisees' ability to hire or retain employees due to immigration issues.

Patrick Scholes asked for a breakdown of the raised full-year RevPAR guidance, seeking to quantify how much of the improvement is attributable to organic strength versus hurricane-related demand.

Answer

CEO Patrick Pacious estimated that hurricane impact accounts for about 40-50 basis points of the full-year RevPAR. He emphasized the guidance increase is primarily driven by broad-based organic strength, including occupancy gains and performance in regions and segments unaffected by the storms.

Asked about conservatism in guidance for future hurricanes and sought specifics on insurance cost reductions and expected wage growth.

Answer

Guidance does not include conservatism for potential future hurricanes. Insurance costs are flat to slightly down and represent 5-7% of the cost base. Wage growth is expected to be in the mid-to-high single digits (4-6%) and remains a significant headwind.

Patrick Scholes from Truist Securities asked for clarification on the pricing language for 2023, an update on direct versus travel agency booking trends, and the key drivers behind the improved 15% fuel consumption reduction forecast for 2023.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein clarified that the pricing language does not reflect a significant change and noted that the travel agency channel is recovering strongly. CFO David Bernstein detailed the fuel savings, attributing 9 percentage points to fleet optimization (newer, more efficient ships) and the remaining 6 points to itinerary optimization and technology investments.