Patrick Brown

Patrick Tyler Brown asked about GFL's leverage guidance, specifically if it assumes no incremental M&A or buybacks, and whether 2026 is still expected to be an outsized M&A year. He also inquired about the components of the 2026 EBITDA bridge, including M&A rollover, EPR/R&G contributions, FX drag, and underlying organic EBITDA growth.

Answer

CEO Patrick Dovigi clarified that GFL is committed to exiting 2026 with leverage in the low to mid-threes, even with potential M&A and buybacks. CFO Luke Pelosi confirmed Brown's conceptual breakdown of the EBITDA bridge, noting that commodity headwinds and the absence of prior year hurricane volumes would impact organic EBITDA, which is expected to be in the mid- to high single digits after normalization.

Patrick Tyler Brown of Raymond James sought clarification on the contribution of EPR and RNG investments to the reported volume growth and whether the full-year volume guidance includes these factors. He also asked about the expected cash flow impact of U.S. bonus depreciation in 2025.

Answer

Executive VP & CFO Luke Pelosi clarified that while EPR provides a tailwind to volume, the guidance increase is driven by broad-based outperformance, and RNG has a de minimis impact on revenue. He noted that bonus depreciation is a $25-30 million tailwind this year, which will materially slow the ramp in cash taxes and improve free cash flow conversion faster than previously expected.

Patrick Brown asked about the M&A pipeline's composition (tuck-ins vs. new markets), the cadence of self-help margin benefits, and the reason for higher corporate expenses year-over-year.

Answer

CEO Patrick Dovigi confirmed the M&A pipeline is robust and consists mainly of tuck-ins to densify existing markets. Executive Luke Pelosi suggested the self-help margin benefits would be realized on a pro-rata basis and clarified that corporate costs are temporarily higher but will be offset by a new service fee paid by the divested ES business.

Patrick Brown asked for a detailed breakdown of the 2025 EBITDA bridge, including the impacts of FX, EPR, and RNG, and requested an update on the financials and monetization strategy for Green Infrastructure Partners (GIP).

Answer

Executive Luke Pelosi provided a comprehensive revenue and EBITDA bridge, noting a 5.25%-5.5% price growth, a 25 bps drag from commodities, and a 200 bps tailwind from FX. He specified that RNG contribution is expected to grow from ~$25-30M in 2024 to ~$50M in 2025, with EPR adding an incremental $35-40M. CEO Patrick Dovigi stated that GIP finished 2024 with low $200M EBITDA and plans for $225M in 2025, adding that while a full sale is not planned, the company is exploring a partial liquidity event due to significant reverse inquiry.

Patrick "Tyler" Brown from Raymond James sought details on the PRI acquisition's business model, the replicability of its pavement preservation services, and modeling guidance for M&A revenue contribution and the pro forma balance sheet.

Answer

Executive F. Smith detailed PRI's diverse operations, including its pavement preservation expertise, which he noted can be leveraged across CPI. Executive Chairman Ned Fleming framed the deal as a strategic growth platform in Tennessee. CFO Gregory Hoffman provided figures for M&A revenue carryover and reiterated the full-year organic growth target. F. Smith confirmed the deal was all-cash and the company remains on track with its deleveraging plan.

Patrick Brown of Raymond James asked for a breakdown of the organic volume outlook for 2025 across residential, non-residential, and public sectors to better understand the path to flattish organic volumes.

Answer

CEO James Hill reiterated the full-year volume growth guidance of 3% to 5%, inclusive of acquisitions. He explained that while private demand faces challenges, healthy growth in public demand serves as a strong offset. Hill noted that Q1 shipments were down 1% due to severe weather but saw a 9% rebound in March. He expects volumes to be back-half loaded, supported by easier weather comparisons and strong public-side bookings, which have contributed to higher year-over-year backlogs.

Patrick Brown inquired about the quantifiable impact of weather on the Environmental Services (ES) segment in Q1, the assumptions behind the Q2 guidance regarding large projects, and the overall cyclicality of the ES business lines.

Answer

EVP & CFO Eric Dugas estimated a $10-12 million EBITDA drag from weather but noted a strong March and positive momentum into Q2. Co-CEO Eric Gerstenberg confirmed the Q2 guide is conservative, excluding large-scale ER events, and noted a strong turnaround pipeline for the second half. Both Gerstenberg and Co-CEO Mike Battles affirmed the ES business is "recession-resistant," citing strong pipelines and the non-deferrable nature of services.

Patrick Brown inquired about the quantifiable impact of Q1 weather on the Environmental Services (ES) segment, the recoverability of those volumes, the assumptions in the Q2 guidance regarding large-scale emergency response (ER) work and refinery turnarounds, and the overall cyclicality of the ES business.

Answer

EVP and CFO Eric Dugas estimated a $10-12 million EBITDA impact from weather but noted a strong March created positive momentum. Co-CEO Eric Gerstenberg confirmed the Q2 guide is conservative, excluding large ER events, and highlighted a strong second-half turnaround pipeline. Gerstenberg and Co-CEO Mike Battles both emphasized the recession-resistant nature of the ES business, which continues to see margin expansion and strong demand.

Patrick Brown inquired about potential incremental opportunities from California wildfire cleanups and their impact on guidance. He also asked about the company's involvement in bird flu culling efforts, inbound interest for the new Kimball incinerator from captive closures, and the current M&A environment for specialty waste assets.

Answer

Co-CEO Eric Gerstenberg confirmed active participation in wildfire cleanup but noted it was a 'net neutral event' for Q1 guidance due to initial disruptions. He stated that bird flu involvement was not material. Regarding Kimball, Gerstenberg confirmed ongoing discussions with captive incinerator customers about their strategic options. Co-CEO Mike Battles commented on the M&A pipeline, acknowledging higher prices but affirming the company's intent to be an active participant for the right strategic and financial deals in 2025.

Patrick Brown inquired about the primary driver for the weaker Q3 results and Q4 guidance, the strategic actions being taken in the Safety-Kleen Sustainable Solutions (SKSS) segment, and the high-level outlook for 2025, including key growth drivers and cash flow potential.

Answer

Co-CEO Eric Gerstenberg and Co-CEO Mike Battles confirmed that the guidance revision was almost entirely due to challenges in the SKSS segment, specifically softening demand and deteriorating base oil pricing late in Q3. They noted the core Environmental Services (ES) business remains strong. For SKSS, management is aggressively adjusting its pay-for-oil/charge-for-oil model and idling its Newark refinery to manage inventory and pricing. For 2025, Battles projected mid-single-digit organic revenue growth and mid-to-high single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth for the company, driven by the ES segment, the new Kimball incinerator, and M&A contributions, while expecting a strong cash flow story due to lower CapEx and working capital improvements.

Patrick Brown of Raymond James sought clarification on how to model the incremental M&A contribution for 2025, given previous guidance and the new year-to-date figures.

Answer

CFO Mary Anne Whitney clarified that investors should add approximately $25 million to $30 million to prior M&A modeling assumptions to account for the incremental deals closed in Q1. She also confirmed that the acquisition revenue figures are separate from the revenue impact of the Chiquita Canyon landfill closure.

Patrick Brown of Raymond James sought confirmation on the margin impact from M&A and storms in Q3, asked for an update on OCC pricing, and requested details on the status and spending plans for the Chiquita Canyon Landfill.

Answer

CFO Mary Anne Whitney confirmed a roughly 30 basis point drag from M&A and storms, plus some commodity weakness, and stated the Q3 average OCC price was $139. Executive Ronald Mittelstaedt provided a detailed update on Chiquita, noting substantial progress on remediation, the disbanding of the EPA-led oversight committee, and that spending should step down in 2025 to an estimated $50-$75 million.

Patrick Brown questioned why Bladex's 2026 Return on Equity (ROE) guidance of 13-15% appears conservative, given that the company has already achieved a 16% ROE, implying a future decline in profitability.

Answer

Executive Jorge Salas clarified that the 2026 guidance was established in 2022 under the assumption of a normalized 2.5% Fed funds rate. Given the bank has nearly doubled its balance sheet and tripled net income before fully implementing its new trade and treasury platforms, he expressed confidence that profitability will be at the higher end of that guided range for 2026.

Patrick Brown asked for details on the $1 billion acquisition target for 2025, including the potential mix of deals, the revenue contribution from acquisitions already closed, and whether potential disaster-related volume is included in guidance.

Answer

CEO Jon Vander Ark confirmed the $1 billion target is based on a strong start to the year, with an expected mix of ES and Recycling & Waste deals, and noted that disaster-related volume is not in the forecast. CFO Brian DelGhiaccio added that acquisitions closed to date will contribute about one full point of revenue growth in 2025.

Patrick Brown of Raymond James questioned the conservative nature of the implied Q4 guidance, asked about potential hurricane cleanup benefits, and sought to quantify the incremental 2025 EBITDA contribution from key initiatives like polymer centers, RISE, Empower, and RNG, as well as the impact of the expiring CNG tax credit.

Answer

CEO Jon Vander Ark noted the company is focused on 2025 and not overly concerned with decimal-level accuracy for the Q4 guide. CFO Brian DelGhiaccio provided specific 2025 figures: sustainability innovation (RNG, polymers) is expected to add ~$75M in revenue and $30-35M in EBITDA. Empower will contribute about half of its $20M run-rate savings. He also confirmed the company is not assuming the renewal of the ~$15M CNG tax credit for 2025.

Patrick Brown of Raymond James asked about potential Q1 weather impacts, the operational and financial plan for the Ontario landfill wind-down, and whether the benefits from landfill internalization are incremental to guidance. He also sought clarification on the components of the 2025 EBITDA bridge, details on increased technology spending, and the company's NOL and future cash tax position.

Answer

CFO Bradford Helgeson noted that Q1 weather impacts were not significant compared to historical trends. CEO John Casella and President Ned Coletta explained they have a four-year plan to manage the Ontario landfill closure by redirecting tons to other sites like Highland and McKean. Coletta confirmed that the benefits from 2024 internalization efforts are already included in the 2025 guidance. Helgeson and Coletta detailed that the technology spend is a temporary increase to modernize systems for scalability and that NOLs will shield most federal taxes in 2025, with 2026 being a more meaningful cash tax year, subject to legislation and future deal structures.

Patrick Brown inquired about the M&A pipeline, potential regulatory impacts, and the company's capital allocation priorities between debt paydown and share buybacks if M&A slows. He also asked about the H1 vs H2 EBITDA mix.

Answer

CEO Ward Nye described the M&A pipeline as robust, with a steady-state expectation of around $1 billion in annual transactions, though 2025 is unlikely to match 2024's $6 billion pace. CFO Jim Nickolas added that if M&A activity were to slow, share buybacks would be prioritized over debt reduction, noting a small bond due in December. Regarding cadence, Nickolas expects EBITDA to skew toward the second half of the year as is traditional, but perhaps less so than in the prior year.

Patrick Brown, also known as Tyler Brown, asked about the significant increase in the full-year CapEx guidance to $875 million and requested an early outlook for CapEx in 2025.

Answer

CFO James Nickolas clarified that the increase in the 2024 CapEx guidance is almost entirely due to one of the recent acquisitions being structured in a way that it is treated as a capital expenditure. For 2025, he suggested that 9% to 9.5% of revenues would be a reasonable preliminary estimate, with more formal guidance to follow.

Patrick Brown of Raymond James asked for an update on Saia's terminal door ownership, plans for relocations in 2025, and an assessment of where the company stands in its journey to close the revenue per bill gap with peers.

Answer

Executive Matthew Batteh reported that Saia has over 9,900 doors and owns approximately 70% of them. CEO Fritz Holzgrefe confirmed 5-6 new terminals are planned for 2025, with additional door growth from relocations and expansions. Regarding pricing, Matthew Batteh stated Saia is still in the 'relatively early innings' of closing the revenue per bill gap, as the company remains cheaper than its public peers and can now leverage its national network and improved data to support pricing discussions.

Patrick Brown asked for clarification on several financial bridge items, including the 2025 CNG tax credit headwind, the components of Stericycle's guided EBITDA, the lack of incremental sustainability contribution in Q4, and the core drivers behind the strong 7% organic EBITDA growth outlook for the Collection and Disposal business.

Answer

EVP and CFO Devina Rankin confirmed a $63 million CNG tax credit headwind and explained that WM's more conventional EBITDA definition for Stericycle results in a different baseline, with the 2025 guidance including $85-$90 million in realized synergies. An executive clarified that sustainability contributions are complex, with royalties flowing to other segments. President and CEO Jim Fish and EVP and COO John Morris attributed the core business strength to a strong price-to-cost spread, driven by both sophisticated pricing and significant operational cost reductions, with OpEx as a percentage of revenue nearing 60%.

Patrick Brown asked for clarification on the sustainability segment's EBITDA run rate for Q4 and 2025, the timeline for CapEx reduction, and the specific drivers behind management's forecast for "outsized growth" in 2025.

Answer

SVP & Chief Sustainability Officer Tara Hemmer projected 2024 sustainability EBITDA at $120-$130 million and confirmed a significant CapEx step-down in 2025 and 2026 from a new total program budget of $3 billion. President & CEO Jim Fish detailed that the "outsized growth" in 2025 will be driven by the combination of maturing sustainability investments, higher-than-expected synergies from the Stericycle acquisition, and continued cost efficiencies from technology adoption in the core business.

Patrick Brown of Raymond James asked for details on Wallboard unit costs, specifically the impact of Old Corrugated Containers (OCC), and requested an update on CapEx guidance for fiscal 2025 and a preliminary outlook for fiscal 2026.

Answer

CFO Craig Kesler confirmed that elevated OCC prices have been a headwind for the paper and wallboard business, noting that price changes take time to flow through the P&L. He updated fiscal 2025 CapEx guidance to a range of $280 million to $310 million. For fiscal 2026, he suggested that a similar level of spending is a reasonable placeholder due to the ongoing multi-year modernization project at the Laramie plant.