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    Paul Holden • CIBC World Markets

    Paul Holden's questions to Sun Life Financial Inc (SLF) leadership

    Paul Holden's questions to Sun Life Financial Inc (SLF) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Holden of CIBC World Markets asked about the earnings contribution from the U.S. medical stop-loss business versus other employee plans and questioned which metric, fee earnings or underlying income, is a better indicator of SLC Management's run-rate growth.

    Answer

    President - U.S. Dan Fishbein stated that stop-loss results were in line with expectations and that pricing has been adjusted for 2025. Executive Chair - SLC Management Stephen Peacher identified fee-related earnings (FRE) as the best indicator of core performance, as it excludes volatile items like catch-up fees. President & CEO Kevin Strain confirmed SLC is on track for its Investor Day targets.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Sun Life Financial Inc (SLF) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Holden of CIBC World Markets asked for an update on the U.S. Medical Stop-Loss business performance and repricing actions, and questioned the divergence between SLC Management's fee earnings growth and underlying earnings growth.

    Answer

    President - U.S. Dan Fishbein stated that stop-loss results were in line with expectations, with experience stabilizing and necessary price increases for 2025 having been implemented. Executive Chair - SLC Management Stephen Peacher explained that fee-related earnings (FRE) are the best view of core earnings power, as underlying net income can be volatile due to lumpy catch-up fees and seed investment marks. CEO Kevin Strain added that SLC is on track to achieve its $235 million target for the year.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Sun Life Financial Inc (SLF) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Paul Holden asked about the drivers behind the year-over-year growth in the U.S. business's expected profit line and sought to understand the discrepancy between the 4% stop-loss premium growth and the much higher 14% rate increases being implemented.

    Answer

    Kevin Morrissey, SVP & Chief Actuary, explained that the expected profit line's growth is driven by the volume of in-force business and pricing expectations, which are updated annually. Daniel Fishbein, President of Sun Life U.S., clarified that the gap between rate increases and premium growth is due to clients often choosing to 'buy down' their benefits (e.g., taking higher deductibles) to offset rate hikes, and Sun Life's current focus on maintaining margins over aggressive growth.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Sun Life Financial Inc (SLF) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Paul Holden asked for the common drivers behind the large stop-loss claims and what underwriting changes are being made beyond price. He also requested an update on the previously announced $200 million expense savings program.

    Answer

    Daniel Fishbein (executive) identified three drivers for claim severity: more advanced cancer cases, a significant increase in premature births/neonatal care, and hospital price increases. CFO Timothy Deacon reported that the expense program achieved $82 million in savings for the full year 2024, ahead of the 40% target, with the full $200 million expected to be realized, supporting overall growth objectives.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Sun Life Financial Inc (SLF) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Paul Holden asked about the new disclosure on organic capital generation, questioning if the $588 million figure is a sustainable quarterly run rate. He also asked for confirmation that SLC Management's 2025 net income target remains unchanged and how the restructuring might impact it.

    Answer

    Timothy Deacon, EVP & CFO, explained that the $588 million in organic capital generation was an above-target result driven by strong sales, and a more normal range would be 20-30% of underlying net income. Stephen Peacher, Executive Chair of SLC Management, confirmed they are still on track for their 2025 targets, stating that while SLC is participating in cost reductions, earnings growth will be driven primarily by growing AUM and revenue, not cost-cutting.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) leadership

    Paul Holden's questions to Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Holden of CIBC World Markets sought clarification on the mechanics of the Comvest deal being immediately accretive to ROE and asked about the attractiveness of the Hong Kong MPF business post-transition.

    Answer

    CFO Colin Simpson explained that immediate ROE accretion is achieved by redeploying low-earning surplus capital into the higher-earning Comvest business. President & CEO Philip Witherington affirmed the Hong Kong MPF business remains attractive, noting the expected earnings headwind was already factored into the company's 2027 targets and that growth should overcome the impact within a few years.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Paul Holden of CIBC asked for details on the drivers of the negative ALDA experience and questioned the threshold for revising long-term return assumptions after recent underperformance.

    Answer

    Trevor Kreel, Head of Investments, explained the weakness was driven by real estate and private equity, consistent with market conditions, though the portfolio still generated positive total returns. He and Chief Actuary Steven Finch reiterated that assumptions are long-term and reviewed annually. They feel current assumptions remain appropriate, noting a key factor for a past reduction (in 2017) was a significant drop in interest rates, a condition that has now reversed.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Paul Holden asked for the drivers of higher earnings on surplus and the outlook given interest rate moves. He also questioned why Manulife did not take a write-down in its Vietnam business, unlike a competitor, following challenging industry conditions.

    Answer

    CFO Colin Simpson explained the surplus earnings increase was due to currency effects and a one-off fund rebalancing. Incoming CEO Philip Witherington addressed the Vietnam question, highlighting Manulife's resilient in-force portfolio and contractual protections in its bancassurance partnerships, which ensure the recoverability of its intangible assets.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Paul Holden from CIBC inquired about the Global Minimum Tax (GMT), asking how much of the Q2 charge would have been allocated to the Asia segment and seeking visibility on the timeline for its enactment in key jurisdictions like Hong Kong. He also asked for clarification on the insurance experience in Asia, noting that while the total experience impact was flat year-over-year, the allocation between P&L and CSM had changed.

    Answer

    CFO Colin Simpson stated that $30 million of the $46 million GMT charge was attributable to Asia and expects Hong Kong to adopt the tax in 2025. CEO Roy Gori noted the pro-rata impact is minimal. On insurance experience, Chief Actuary Steven Finch explained that positive claims experience in Vietnam and Japan benefited the P&L, while adverse persistency results in Vietnam and Singapore negatively impacted the CSM. He noted the Vietnam persistency issue is showing modest improvement.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Royal Bank of Canada (RY) leadership

    Paul Holden's questions to Royal Bank of Canada (RY) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Holden asked about the potential speed of a rebound in investment banking activity following improved tariff certainty. He also inquired about the drivers of strong growth and the decline in NIM within the Commercial Banking segment.

    Answer

    Group Head of Capital Markets, Derek Neldner, explained that flow financing activity recovers quickly, while strategic M&A has a longer lag time. Group Head of Commercial Banking, Sean Amato-Gauci, attributed the NIM decline to an accounting shift and the strong loan growth to a multi-year strategy of investing in coverage for larger clients.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Royal Bank of Canada (RY) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Holden of CIBC World Markets asked about the potential speed of an investment banking activity rebound if tariff uncertainty subsides, and also questioned the drivers of strong growth and the net interest margin decline in Commercial Banking.

    Answer

    Derek Neldner, Group Head of Capital Markets, noted that flow financing rebounds quickly while M&A takes longer. Sean Amato-Gauci, Group Head of Commercial Banking, explained the NIM decline was due to an accounting shift to other income, and attributed strong loan growth to a multi-year strategy of investing in coverage for larger clients.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Royal Bank of Canada (RY) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Paul Holden from CIBC sought to confirm that performing PCLs were not increased for tariff risk due to adequate existing scenarios and asked if the impaired PCL peak is still expected in the second half of the year.

    Answer

    Chief Risk Officer Graeme Hepworth confirmed that existing pessimistic scenarios were deemed adequate, noting they held back on potential releases due to tariff uncertainty. He stated that Q1 was likely the peak for impaired PCLs due to the one large account. While retail PCLs are still expected to rise through the year, he clarified that any material Stage 3 impact from tariffs would likely be a 2026 event.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Royal Bank of Canada (RY) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Paul Holden asked about the net interest income (NII) and earnings sensitivity to the current rate-cutting cycle, seeking insights into any nuances that might make this cycle different from past ones, such as shifts in funding mix.

    Answer

    Interim CFO Katherine Gibson provided a holistic view, noting that while lower rates negatively impact some deposit income, this is offset by strong tractor benefits from core deposits and hedging strategies at City National. She highlighted that while a shift from GICs to wealth products might lower Canadian Banking NII, the diversified business model would capture those flows in Wealth Management, resulting in a relatively flat impact for the overall organization. She confirmed the takeaway that NII sensitivity may be less than disclosed numbers suggest.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Bank of Montreal (BMO) leadership

    Paul Holden's questions to Bank of Montreal (BMO) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Holden asked about the sentiment of Canadian commercial customers and requested an update on the capital markets M&A pipeline, particularly in the mid-market private equity space.

    Answer

    CEO Darryl White indicated Canadian commercial clients are in a 'wait and see' mode with cautious optimism, resulting in moderating but still positive loan growth. CRO Piyush Agrawal described the M&A market as mixed, with U.S. weakness but a 'cautiously optimistic' pipeline as client engagement picks up, though revenue conversion takes time.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Bank of Montreal (BMO) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Holden of CIBC World Markets asked about the sentiment among Canadian commercial customers and for a refresh on the capital markets M&A pipeline, particularly in the U.S. mid-market.

    Answer

    Nadim Hirji, Group Head of Commercial Banking, stated that Canadian clients share a similar 'cautious optimism' to their U.S. counterparts but expects loan growth to moderate while remaining positive. An executive from Capital Markets described the M&A market as a 'mixed picture,' with U.S. activity weaker post-tariff announcements but now seeing a pickup in engagement, leading to a 'cautiously optimistic' outlook.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Bank of Montreal (BMO) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Paul Holden addressed concerns that BMO's C&I loan book might be more susceptible to credit losses in a tariff scenario and asked for the forward outlook on the U.S. P&C net interest margin (NIM).

    Answer

    CRO Piyush Agrawal and Nadim Hirji, Head of BMO Commercial Banking, refuted the idea of specific C&I vulnerability, emphasizing the portfolio's geographic and sector diversification. On margins, CFO Tayfun Tuzun guided for overall stability in the U.S. P&C NIM. He noted that while deposit mix improvements are a positive driver, the benefit could be offset by the mathematical impact of resurgent loan growth expected in the second half of the year.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) leadership

    Paul Holden's questions to Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Holden inquired about the expected timeline for the productivity ratio in Canadian P&C banking to improve following significant technology investments. He also asked for a mechanical explanation of how the quarter's credit provisions boosted the CET1 ratio.

    Answer

    Aris Bogdaneris (Canadian Banking) stated that while the bank continues to invest in its primacy strategy, it is managing costs prudently. He expects the segment's efficiency ratio to begin improving in 2026 as NIM compression stabilizes by year-end. CFO Rajagopal Viswanathan explained the CET1 boost occurred because the large ACL build, driven by expert judgment, reduced the capital shortfall between accounting losses and the higher regulatory expected loss calculation, resulting in an 8 basis point capital benefit.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Holden asked about the expected timeline for productivity improvements in Canadian Banking given ongoing technology investments, and requested an explanation for how the PCL build positively impacted the CET1 ratio.

    Answer

    Aris Bogdaneris, Head of Canadian Banking, stated that while the bank continues to invest in its primacy strategy, he expects the productivity ratio to begin improving in 2026 as net interest margin compression stabilizes. Raj Viswanathan, CFO, explained the CET1 ratio benefit: the accounting ACL build reduced the existing shortfall against the higher regulatory 'Expected Loss' figure, thereby lowering a capital deduction and boosting the CET1 ratio by 8 basis points.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Paul Holden asked if a scenario with significant and permanent tariffs would alter the bank's strategic thinking on capital allocation, particularly regarding its North American corridor strategy and U.S. investments.

    Answer

    President and CEO L. Thomson responded that he sees no need to pivot from the North American strategy at this time. He reiterated the capital allocation priority of Canada first, followed by the U.S. and Mexico, stating it is 'way too early to think about pivoting' from a strategy he believes has strong long-term rationale.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Paul Holden questioned the 2025 balance sheet growth outlook for International Banking given improving macro conditions versus the client primacy strategy, and asked about the potential for performing allowance releases in Canadian retail.

    Answer

    An executive from International Banking clarified that 2025 will be a transitional year with a flattish balance sheet, as the net effect of client deselection and strategic refocusing continues. Chief Risk Officer Philip Thomas noted the resilience of the Canadian consumer and stability in auto loan write-offs, stating that while one quarter is not a trend, he is encouraged by current performance, which could influence future allowance levels.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) leadership

    Paul Holden's questions to Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Holden from CIBC questioned the drivers behind the sequential decline in impaired PCLs in Canadian P&C banking, given the cautious macro outlook, and asked how much of the cost restructuring savings would be reinvested versus dropping to the bottom line.

    Answer

    Chief Risk Officer Ajai Bambawale explained the PCL decline was broad-based and reflected strong underlying credit quality, aside from tariff risks. CFO Kelvin Tran stated that the majority of savings from the restructuring would be redeployed to fund investments in future growth, particularly in digital, AI, and technology.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Paul Holden inquired about the U.S. balance sheet repositioning, asking if the paydown of high-cost borrowings could coincide with portfolio sales and if selling lower-yielding assets could be accretive to Net Interest Income (NII). He also asked for the Q1 cost of risk and control remediation and for assurance that the USD 500 million guidance for these costs would not increase.

    Answer

    Leo Salom, President and CEO of TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank, confirmed that proceeds from a $9 billion portfolio sale in Q2 will be used to reduce borrowings, with further reductions occurring gradually. He stated that Q1 AML remediation costs were $86 million and expressed confidence in the full-year USD 500 million guidance, noting costs would be more material in the second half. CEO Raymond Chun added that the guidance includes a budget for the 'look-back' process and the bank will provide updates if necessary.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Paul Holden asked how the U.S. segment maintained a flat year-over-year efficiency ratio despite significant risk investments, raising concerns about potential revenue impacts from cost-cutting. He also revisited the decision to repurchase TD stock while simultaneously selling Schwab shares.

    Answer

    Leo Salom, President and CEO of TD Bank, America's most Convenient Bank, explained that a productivity program focusing on organizational rightsizing, real estate optimization, and tech simplification created the capacity for these investments without compromising growth initiatives. CEO Bharat Masrani reiterated that the capital decisions were made based on the bank's prudent and conservative approach to capitalization, and the buyback was part of a previously announced program.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Paul Holden of CIBC sought clarity on whether the bank's enterprise-wide risk investments would cover potential 'regulatory spread' to Canada without increasing costs, and also asked for all-bank net interest margin (NIM) guidance.

    Answer

    CEO Bharat Masrani confirmed that the existing expense guidance for mid-single-digit growth already incorporates all planned risk and control investments. CFO Kelvin Tran noted that while they don't provide all-bank NIM guidance, a neutral outlook was 'not unreasonable' given opposing trends in Canada and the U.S.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Great-West Lifeco Inc (GWLIF) leadership

    Paul Holden's questions to Great-West Lifeco Inc (GWLIF) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Paul Holden of CIBC inquired about the strong underlying earnings growth in Capital and Risk Solutions, which appeared to be tracking ahead of guidance, and asked about the drivers behind the consistent double-digit growth in European group premiums.

    Answer

    Jeff Poulin, EVP of Reinsurance, acknowledged that strong Q1 sales from new products could lead to full-year CRS results slightly ahead of the mid-single-digit target, but noted the business can be lumpy. David Harney, President and COO of Europe, attributed the strong European premium growth to salary inflation, employment levels, and more recent health insurance rate increases in Ireland, all supported by strong client retention.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Great-West Lifeco Inc (GWLIF) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Paul Holden inquired about the drivers behind the strong, double-digit earnings growth in Capital and Risk Solutions (CRS) and the consistent double-digit premium growth in the European group business.

    Answer

    Jeff Poulin, EVP of Reinsurance, attributed the strong CRS results to new product innovation and a very good sales quarter, suggesting the full-year result could be slightly better than the mid-single-digit target, though he cautioned the business is lumpy. David Harney, President and COO of Europe, explained that European premium growth was driven by salary inflation, strong employment, and recent health insurance rate increases in Ireland to reflect higher claims experience.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Great-West Lifeco Inc (GWLIF) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Paul Holden inquired about the strong double-digit earnings growth in Capital and Risk Solutions (CRS), asking if it could surpass medium-term targets for the year, and also asked about the drivers behind consistent double-digit growth in European group premiums.

    Answer

    Jeff Poulin, EVP of Reinsurance, acknowledged that strong Q1 sales from new products could lead CRS to finish the year slightly better than its mid-single-digit target, but cautioned that the business is lumpy. David Harney, President and COO of Europe, explained that European group premium growth was driven by salary inflation, strong employment, and more recently, necessary health insurance price increases in Ireland to reflect higher claims experience.

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    Paul Holden's questions to Great-West Lifeco Inc (GWLIF) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Paul Holden of CIBC World Markets asked about Empower's positioning for small business 401(k) plans, particularly low-cost options, and how Great-West Lifeco could opportunistically benefit from potential market disruptions caused by tariffs.

    Answer

    Empower CEO Ed Murphy confirmed the company has a low-cost, straight-through solution for small businesses and is well-positioned to capture growth from new plan formation spurred by state auto-IRA mandates. CEO Paul Mahon stated the company is well-positioned to navigate tariff impacts due to its diversified, domestic businesses and could find opportunities, such as participating in Canadian infrastructure investments.

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