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    Paul Newsome

    Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

    Paul Newsome is a Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies, specializing in insurance-sector equity research with notable expertise in investment banking and financial services. He covers companies such as Accelerant (ARX), recently initiating coverage with an Overweight rating and a $35 price target, and has demonstrated robust performance as reflected in his consistent analyst rankings and successful equity recommendations. Newsome began his career as a senior insurance analyst and managing director, holding previous senior roles before joining Piper Sandler, and is a CFA charterholder as well as holding the CPCU designation. His professional background is marked by deep analytical skill, industry recognition, and accomplished credentials.

    Paul Newsome's questions to ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS (AHL) leadership

    Paul Newsome's questions to ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS (AHL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler sought confirmation on whether the strategic shift towards growing long-tail business would naturally lead to a higher loss ratio. He also asked about the current demand trends from alternative capital partners and how that might be influencing the market.

    Answer

    Group CFO Mark Pickering confirmed that a mix shift towards longer-tail casualty business is the primary driver for the slight uptick in the reinsurance segment's accident year ex-cat loss ratio. Christian Dunleavy, Group President & CEO of Aspen Bermuda, added that demand from third-party capital for longer-tail lines remains strong and structural, noting Aspen is well-positioned as a first mover in this space with a robust pipeline of aligned opportunities.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS (AHL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler Companies questioned if the faster growth in long-tail business would naturally lead to a higher loss ratio and inquired about the demand dynamics from alternative capital providers.

    Answer

    Mark Pickering, Group CFO & Treasurer, confirmed that a mix shift towards more casualty reinsurance would cause a slight uptick in the accident year ex-cat loss ratio. Christian Dunleavy, Group President & CEO of Aspen Bermuda Limited, added that interest from third-party capital in longer-tail lines remains strong and is viewed as a permanent market feature, noting Aspen is well-positioned as an early mover in this space.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS (AHL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler sought to confirm if faster growth in long-tail business implies a higher loss ratio. He also asked about the demand from alternative capital providers and how the supply of such capital might be changing, particularly in the context of MGA competition.

    Answer

    Group CFO Mark Pickering confirmed that a mix shift towards more casualty reinsurance would cause a slight uptick in the accident year ex-cat loss ratio, noting the current 48.5% is in line with expectations. Christian Dunleavy, Group President & CEO of Aspen Bermuda, added that interest from third-party capital in longer-tail lines is a structural and permanent market feature, and Aspen is well-positioned with a strong, selective pipeline of opportunities.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS (AHL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler Companies asked if the faster growth in long-tail business would naturally lead to a higher loss ratio. He also inquired about the demand from alternative capital providers and whether Aspen is seeing increased competition from MGAs backed by this capital.

    Answer

    Mark Pickering, Group CFO & Treasurer, confirmed that a mix shift towards longer-tail casualty business would cause a slight uptick in the accident year ex-cat loss ratio, particularly in the Reinsurance segment. Christian Dunleavy, Group President & CEO of Aspen Bermuda Limited, added that interest from third-party capital in longer-tail lines is a structural and permanent market feature, noting that Aspen is well-positioned as a first mover in this area.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to UNITED FIRE GROUP (UFCS) leadership

    Paul Newsome's questions to UNITED FIRE GROUP (UFCS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler Companies asked for an overview of the competitive environment, noting discussions of accelerating competition and rate moderation, particularly in property and reinsurance. He also sought to understand how much of the improved catastrophe loss result was due to strategic improvements versus favorable weather.

    Answer

    EVP & Chief Operating Officer, Julie Stephenson, acknowledged a competitive market with some expected rate moderation, especially in property, but expressed confidence in UFG's ability to compete due to strong risk selection and pricing. She noted the reinsurance market has been softer, leading to the non-renewal of some treaties. Regarding catastrophes, she stated confidence that improved management, including higher deductibles and a risk profile reset in Florida, is driving the favorable outcomes, not just luck.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to UNITED FIRE GROUP (UFCS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler Companies asked for an overview of the competitive environment, noting discussions of accelerating competition and rate moderation, and inquired about differences between the primary and reinsurance businesses. He also sought to understand the drivers behind the improved catastrophe loss ratio, asking to parse between underlying strategic improvements and favorable weather.

    Answer

    EVP & Chief Operating Officer Julie Stephenson acknowledged rate moderation, especially in property, but expressed confidence in UFG's competitive position due to improved risk selection and pricing. She noted the reinsurance market has been softer, leading to the non-renewal of some treaties. Regarding catastrophes, she attributed the favorable results to deliberate actions like increased deductibles, a risk profile reset in Florida, and better pricing, rather than just luck, highlighting an 11% year-over-year decrease in modeled average annual loss.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to UNITED FIRE GROUP (UFCS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler Companies asked for an overview of the competitive environment, particularly regarding potential acceleration of competition in property and reinsurance. He also inquired about the improved catastrophe loss results, seeking to distinguish between strategic management and favorable weather.

    Answer

    EVP & Chief Operating Officer, Julie Stephenson, acknowledged that the market remains competitive with moderating rates, especially in property, but expressed confidence in UFG's ability to compete due to improved risk selection and pricing. She noted the reinsurance market has been softer, leading UFG to non-renew certain treaties. On catastrophe management, Stephenson attributed the favorable results to strategic actions like increased deductibles, improved risk profiles, and a reset on hurricane exposure, rather than just luck, giving them confidence in their annual cat plan.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to Heritage Insurance Holdings (HRTG) leadership

    Paul Newsome's questions to Heritage Insurance Holdings (HRTG) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler Companies requested more detail on expected policy growth by region and asked about the current underlying property claim trends, specifically frequency and severity.

    Answer

    CEO Ernie Garateix detailed the expected policy-in-force (PIF) growth, highlighting momentum in the Mid-Atlantic (Virginia) and the Northeast (New York), with Florida's PIF count expected to turn positive soon. CFO Kirk Lusk added that underlying claim trends are stable and manageable, with three-year frequency nearly flat (down 0.9%) and three-year severity up a modest 5.4%, indicating a moderation from prior years.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to Palomar Holdings (PLMR) leadership

    Paul Newsome's questions to Palomar Holdings (PLMR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler Companies asked about the increasing competition in the property market, particularly the risk of declining commercial earthquake pricing spreading and impacting Palomar's growth. He also inquired about emerging growth areas or "green shoots" in the business.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO Mac Armstrong explained that Palomar's balanced portfolio across residential, commercial, admitted, and E&S markets allows it to navigate market cycles and still achieve high single-digit growth in earthquake. He highlighted the strength of the residential earthquake book. For new growth, Armstrong pointed to Casualty, Crop, and Surety as significant opportunities where the company is growing with underwriting discipline.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to Palomar Holdings (PLMR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler Companies inquired about the competitive pressures in property lines, particularly the risk of declining commercial earthquake pricing spreading, and asked about emerging growth opportunities or 'green shoots' in newer business segments.

    Answer

    Mac Armstrong, Chairman, CEO & Founder, explained that Palomar's balanced portfolio across residential/commercial and admitted/E&S markets allows it to navigate market cycles and sustain growth. He highlighted that strong performance in residential earthquake, which has an inflation guard and high retention, is offsetting commercial rate pressure. Armstrong identified casualty, crop, and surety as key growth vectors where the company is expanding with disciplined underwriting.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to Palomar Holdings (PLMR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome inquired about the increasing competition in the property market, particularly the risk of declining commercial earthquake pricing spreading and impacting Palomar's growth, and also asked about emerging growth opportunities or "green shoots" in newer business lines.

    Answer

    Mac Armstrong, Chairman & CEO, addressed these concerns by highlighting Palomar's balanced portfolio of residential and commercial lines, which allows for growth despite market cyclicality. He noted that while large commercial earthquake accounts face rate pressure, the residential book is growing rapidly. For new opportunities, he pointed to significant potential in casualty, crop insurance, and surety as key growth vectors.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to Bowhead Specialty Holdings (BOW) leadership

    Paul Newsome's questions to Bowhead Specialty Holdings (BOW) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler Companies asked for an outlook on investment income, specifically how the shift to long-tail business and rapid growth would affect underlying cash flows and the investment portfolio's growth rate.

    Answer

    CFO Brad Mulcahey stated that investment income should continue to grow due to increased balances from long-tail lines. He estimated that between $60 million and $90 million in cash could be added to the investment portfolio each quarter. He emphasized that growth will primarily be driven by the increasing size of the portfolio at current new money rates, rather than by trying to predict or control future interest rate movements.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP (THG) leadership

    Paul Newsome's questions to HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP (THG) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler Companies questioned Hanover's personal lines distribution strategy and asked for tangible evidence of the company's technology investments differentiating it from peers.

    Answer

    President & CEO John Roche stated the company is focused on diversifying within its current geographic footprint by adding select agents, rather than expanding to new states. Roche and EVP & COO Richard Lavey explained that tech investments are focused on scalability and operational efficiency, highlighting their agency insight tools and consolidation capabilities as current differentiators.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP (THG) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Paul Newsome posed a big-picture question about strategic lessons learned from the Personal Lines recovery and questioned the trade-offs of making incremental casualty reserve increases versus a larger, more aggressive adjustment.

    Answer

    President and CEO John 'Jack' C. Roche highlighted accelerated geographic diversification, particularly reducing Midwest concentration, as a key strategic outcome. CFO Jeff Farber defended the reserving approach, stating the adjustments are minor additions to prudence in the current accident year, not 'nibbling away at an issue,' especially given the offsetting benefit of lower claim frequency.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP (HIG) leadership

    Paul Newsome's questions to HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP (HIG) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler Companies asked for The Hartford's perspective on social inflation and litigation finance challenges. He also questioned if it was possible to measure the specific impact of litigation finance separately from other social inflation drivers.

    Answer

    Chairman & CEO Christopher Swift described social inflation as an ongoing 'tax' on the system but expressed optimism about growing legislative efforts to enact tort reform. He acknowledged that litigation finance contributes to higher loss trends and expenses. While not providing a specific measurement, he confirmed that both inflated average costs from lawyers and nuclear verdicts are contributing factors that the company tracks.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS (UVE) leadership

    Paul Newsome's questions to UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS (UVE) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome inquired about the drivers for the change in reinsurance ceding, the company's capital perspective following recent share buybacks, and the current competitive landscape in Florida.

    Answer

    CFO Frank Wilcox explained that the reinsurance ceding ratio change is due to comparing different programs earning in, as the prior year's program included a no-cost component. Regarding capital, he noted the holding company has abundant capital and repurchases shares when they are undervalued. CEO Stephen Donaghy added that Universal is not driven by competition but by its extensive experience, and while new competitors exist, they see only pockets of competition rather than a dramatic statewide increase.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS (UVE) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome asked for details on the drivers behind the reinsurance ceding change, the company's capital position regarding share buybacks, and the current competitive environment in Florida.

    Answer

    CFO Frank Wilcox explained that the reinsurance ceding ratio change is due to comparing different programs earning in over the period, including the expiration of a prior no-cost program. He also noted that capital at the holding company is abundant, allowing for opportunistic share repurchases. CEO Stephen Donaghy added that while new competitors have entered Florida, Universal is driven by its own experience and does not see a dramatically more competitive market, only pockets of competition.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to OLD REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL (ORI) leadership

    Paul Newsome's questions to OLD REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL (ORI) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler Companies asked for the rationale behind the pause in share repurchases, the company's overall capital management strategy, and the outlook for net investment income.

    Answer

    President & CEO Craig Smiddy explained that the pause in share repurchases follows a significant special dividend in Q1 and considers the stock's price-to-book value. He emphasized a thoughtful capital management strategy that utilizes both buybacks and special dividends to maintain a strong balance sheet while being mindful of ROE. On the investment outlook, CFO Frank Sodaro noted that while new money yields are still slightly above the portfolio yield, the spread has tightened, and future growth in investment income is expected to moderate to the mid-single digits.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) leadership

    Paul Newsome's questions to Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler Companies requested more details on the company's direct-to-consumer channel plans and investment size, and asked if the increased proportion of state-fund policies had impacted contingent commissions.

    Answer

    President & CEO Mark Miller indicated the direct channel investment builds on prior technology work to enable cross-sells and enterprise sales, with the project's size still being determined. CFO Mark Jones Jr. confirmed that state-run plans do not pay contingent commissions, so a shift away from that business creates more opportunities for such earnings.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to American Integrity Insurance Group (AII) leadership

    Paul Newsome's questions to American Integrity Insurance Group (AII) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome asked for insights into the current competitive environment in Florida, noting talk of increased aggressiveness from peers.

    Answer

    Founder & CEO Robert Ritchie responded that he is not deterred by new entrants, stating that the market is large enough and that he welcomes responsible competition. He expressed confidence that the Office of Insurance Regulation is preventing underpriced products from entering the market. He emphasized that American Integrity's key advantage lies in its strong, long-standing relationships with quality independent agents, which ensures a steady flow of desirable business, and noted that large national carriers are not re-entering Florida in a significant way.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to American Integrity Insurance Group (AII) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Paul Newsome of Piper Sandler Companies asked about the current competitive environment in Florida, noting talk of increased aggressiveness from peers, and whether management has observed any recent changes.

    Answer

    Founder & CEO Robert Ritchie responded that he is not deterred by new entrants, as the market is large and the Office of Insurance Regulation is preventing underpriced competition. He emphasized that American Integrity's two-decade history and strong independent agency relationships provide a significant competitive advantage, ensuring they are well-positioned to achieve their growth forecasts without being challenged by new competition.

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    Paul Newsome's questions to Skyward Specialty Insurance Group (SKWD) leadership

    Paul Newsome's questions to Skyward Specialty Insurance Group (SKWD) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Paul Newsome asked for an update on the investment portfolio, specifically what changes have been made and what is left to do, to better understand the prospective net investment income run rate.

    Answer

    CFO Mark Haushill stated that very little is left to do with the investment portfolio, as they are pleased with its structure, allocation, and duration. The main focus is completing redemptions from the alternatives portfolio, which is now under 6% of total investments. CEO Andrew Robinson added that while cash flow continues to be deployed into fixed income, the extraordinary yields earned on cash in 2024 will not be replicated, creating a headwind for year-over-year investment income growth.

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