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Paul Stoddard

Paul Stoddard

US Transportation Analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Salt Lake City, UT, US

Paul Stoddard is a US Transportation Analyst at Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, specializing in coverage of publicly traded transportation companies and providing market insights for investors. He is recognized for his analytical contributions to reports focused on sectors such as freight, shipping, and logistics, with data and charts cited in recent Goldman Sachs industry analyses. Stoddard began his finance career after graduating from Calvin University with concentrations in finance, marketing, and philosophy, accepting a position at Goldman Sachs in Utah where he has developed investor research focused on market trends and stock movements within the transportation space. He holds a business degree and demonstrates significant expertise in the field, applying deep market and philosophical knowledge to support investment decision-making.

Paul Stoddard's questions to LANDSTAR SYSTEM (LSTR) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

Paul Stoddard asked about the BCO count trends, expectations for the first quarter, and how a potential increase in rates could impact BCO retention and variable contribution margin throughout the year.

Answer

President and CEO Frank Lonegro and VP and Chief Safety and Operations Officer Matt Miller noted a sequential improvement in BCO count decline compared to the prior year, with gross truck adds up and cancels down. They emphasized efforts in recruiting, qualifications, and onboarding to improve retention, aiming to grow the fleet in 2026. VP and CFO Jim Todd explained that BCO business is more lucrative for VCM and fleet growth, combined with spot rate improvement, would support VCM and operating leverage.

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Question · Q4 2025

Paul Stoddard from Goldman Sachs inquired about the BCO truck count trends, specifically the decline in Q4 2025 and expectations for Q1 2026, and the company's strategy to retain BCOs amidst potential rate increases. He also asked if an increase in BCO trucks could lead to an improvement in the variable contribution margin throughout the year.

Answer

President and CEO Frank Lonegro and VP and Chief Safety and Operations Officer Matt Miller explained that while a seasonal downtick in BCO count is typical for Q1, the current decline is fractional, with improved gross truck additions and reduced cancellations. They detailed ongoing efforts in recruiting, qualifications, and onboarding to enhance BCO retention and expressed optimism for fleet growth in 2026 with rate improvement. VP and CFO Jim Todd confirmed that BCO business is significantly more lucrative for variable contribution margin, and fleet growth combined with spot rate improvement would support VCM expansion, though a surge in third-party truck volume could temper the margin percentage.

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Paul Stoddard's questions to TFI International (TFII) leadership

Question · Q3 2024

Paul Stoddard, on for Jordan Alliger, asked for the U.S. LTL operating ratio outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024. He also inquired about other cost-takeout initiatives in the segment beyond service improvements.

Answer

CEO Alain Bedard projected that the Q4 U.S. LTL OR will show improvement from Q3 and be closer to Q2 levels, but will not fall below 90% for the full year. Beyond service, he highlighted two key cost-saving initiatives for 2025: implementing a new billing system to improve accuracy and customer satisfaction, and realizing savings from fleet maintenance consolidation and a younger fleet.

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