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Paul Treiber

Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Paul Treiber is a Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at RBC Capital Markets, specializing in technology sector research with a focus on Canadian and North American software, hardware, and IT services companies. He covers prominent firms such as Shopify, Celestica, BlackBerry, Lightspeed Commerce, Descartes Systems, Nuvei, and Constellation Software, with a strong performance track record evidenced by a TipRanks 5-star ranking, a 65.9% success rate, and an average return of 15.1%. Treiber began his analyst career prior to 2012 and has been with RBC Capital Markets for over a decade, where he has built a reputation for high-conviction calls and timely market insights. He holds FINRA securities licenses and maintains leading industry credentials as a top-ranked technology analyst.

Paul Treiber's questions to OPEN TEXT (OTEX) leadership

Paul Treiber's questions to OPEN TEXT (OTEX) leadership • Q4 2025

Question

Paul Treiber from RBC Capital Markets asked about the fundamental drivers behind the strong pipeline growth and its sustainability, and also inquired about potential headwinds or one-time items affecting the fiscal 2026 free cash flow growth guidance.

Answer

CEO Mark J. Barrenechea and President Todd Cione attributed the pipeline surge to the first full quarter of the TitaniumX platform in the market and strong sales execution in quantifying its value for customers. Regarding free cash flow, Barrenechea and CFO Chadwick Westlake clarified that the 17-20% growth outlook is based on clean execution with no expected one-time headwinds in FY26, noting a prior year's one-time tax payment may have skewed comparisons.

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Paul Treiber's questions to OPEN TEXT (OTEX) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Paul Treiber questioned the rationale behind the significant magnitude of the announced headcount reductions, asking why the company chose a large move now instead of a slower transition, and inquired about the philosophy of introducing EPS guidance.

Answer

CEO Mark Barrenechea explained that after more than a year of progress, the company can clearly see productivity gains from AI, comparing it to the step-function efficiency improvement that ERP systems once delivered. CFO Chadwick Westlake added that guiding on EPS is valuable because it is a consistent, bottom-line metric that demonstrates the company's profitability and the effectiveness of its capital deployment, for which he feels OpenText is not getting full credit.

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Paul Treiber's questions to OPEN TEXT (OTEX) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Paul Treiber from RBC Capital Markets asked about the drivers behind the expected acceleration in cloud bookings in the second half and requested metrics on productivity gains from internal AI initiatives.

Answer

President of Worldwide Sales, Todd Cione, attributed the strong outlook to a solid Q3 pipeline and the largest-ever Q4 cloud pipeline, supported by conversion programs and the upcoming Titanium X release. CEO and CTO Mark Barrenechea added that while specific metrics on AI productivity are not yet available, internal tools like 'Athena' for developers and 'Ollie.AI' for sales are expected to drive significant efficiency gains.

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Paul Treiber's questions to OPEN TEXT (OTEX) leadership • Q4 2024

Question

Paul Treiber sought to confirm if the fiscal 2027 revenue aspiration is based purely on organic growth and asked how management compensation will be adjusted to align with the new emphasis on return-focused metrics.

Answer

CEO and CTO Mark J. Barrenechea stated unequivocally that the fiscal 2027 plan is 'manifestly organic growth' and fully within the company's control. On compensation, he revealed that the upcoming proxy circular will detail four advancements, including the board setting higher performance bars for leadership on both growth and margin for annual incentives, with long-term compensation tied to stock performance relative to the NASDAQ.

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Paul Treiber's questions to CGI (GIB) leadership

Paul Treiber's questions to CGI (GIB) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Paul Treiber questioned CGI's competitive positioning in AI, asking if it strengthens its position, and inquired about the economic impact of AI, specifically whether clients are reinvesting productivity gains.

Answer

President and CEO François Boulanger asserted that the need for deep expertise to implement AI correctly strengthens CGI's competitive position and creates new opportunities. He explained that clients are indeed seeing productivity gains and are often reinvesting those savings. For example, cost reductions on the 'run' side of the business are being reallocated to accelerate digital transformation projects.

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Paul Treiber's questions to CELESTICA (CLS) leadership

Paul Treiber's questions to CELESTICA (CLS) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Paul Treiber inquired about the new program pipeline, specifically the opportunity to expand wallet share with existing hyperscalers and penetrate new ones and digital natives. He also asked about the role of pricing in current customer discussions.

Answer

President and CEO Rob Mionis explained the focus is on increasing share of wallet with existing hyperscalers and targeting digital natives, citing a recent win for a full orchestrated AI rack as a key proof point. He stated that while pricing is always a factor, certainty of supply and technology leadership are currently the primary drivers. CFO Mandeep Chawla added that their global footprint provides a total cost of ownership advantage.

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Paul Treiber's questions to CELESTICA (CLS) leadership • Q1 2025

Question

Paul Treiber questioned the price elasticity of demand, asking if customers provided feedback on challenges at higher tariff levels and how elasticity varies across segments. He also asked if the new business pipeline has changed recently.

Answer

President and CEO Rob Mionis responded that customers did not waver on their CapEx plans or demand outlook during the brief period of higher tariffs, and OEM customers are prepared to pass on costs via surcharges. He also stated the pipeline has seen no major changes, only minor, non-material delays in decision-making. CFO Mandeep Chawla added that any customer re-evaluation is concentrated in the industrial segment.

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Paul Treiber's questions to CELESTICA (CLS) leadership • Q4 2024

Question

Paul Treiber asked about the trend of customers procuring full end-to-end RAC solutions, the role of HPS and R&D in securing these deals, and whether there is growing demand for U.S.-based production driven by onshoring trends.

Answer

President and CEO Rob Mionis confirmed a clear trend towards full RAC solutions, particularly with digital native customers. He and CFO Mandeep Chawla emphasized that rising R&D investment (nearing $100M) and a large design team are critical differentiators. Regarding onshoring, Mionis noted customers are in a 'wait-and-see mode,' but Celestica is prepared with ample, power-secured capacity in the U.S.

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Paul Treiber's questions to CELESTICA (CLS) leadership • Q3 2024

Question

Paul Treiber from RBC Capital Markets asked about Celestica's strategy to capture more share with other large Tier 1 hyperscalers beyond its primary one. He also questioned if hyperscalers are becoming more price-sensitive than they have been in the recent past.

Answer

An executive stated that Celestica does business with the top five hyperscalers and has seen tremendous growth and diversification outside its largest customer. SVP Stephen Dorwart added that the strategy is to leverage technology pioneered with hyperscalers into broader markets. On pricing, Dorwart explained that while price is a factor, performance and availability are key drivers for new technology. He emphasized a move to value-based pricing and adding value across the entire system to remain competitive, rather than competing on component cost alone.

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Paul Treiber's questions to BLACKBERRY (BB) leadership

Paul Treiber's questions to BLACKBERRY (BB) leadership • Q1 2026

Question

Paul Treiber inquired about potential churn from the U.S. Federal government following procurement changes and asked if the growing SDP 8.0 pipeline for automotive is additive to the existing QNX pipeline or represents a transition from older versions.

Answer

CEO John Giamatteo stated they saw no material impact from U.S. government budget shifts, as mission-critical communications were not prioritized for cuts, which helped stabilize ARR and DBNRR. CFO Tim Foote added that while they encourage migration to the higher-ASP SDP 8.0 platform, it's still in the early innings given the long life cycles in the automotive market.

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Paul Treiber's questions to BLACKBERRY (BB) leadership • Q4 2025

Question

Paul Treiber inquired about the impact of automotive tariffs on OEM production plans and whether BlackBerry has observed any changes in new vehicle introductions. He also asked for the size of the U.S. Federal business as a percentage of Secure Communications and if there have been any indications of seat reductions from government agencies.

Answer

CEO John Giamatteo stated that BlackBerry has not seen any material impact or received significant warnings from customers about supply chain problems due to tariffs, noting over 50% of QNX revenue is from outside the U.S. Regarding the U.S. Federal business, he confirmed it represents about 20-25% of Secure Communications revenue and has not seen any material impact, as the mission-critical nature of BlackBerry's products makes them less likely to be cut.

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Paul Treiber's questions to BLACKBERRY (BB) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Paul Treiber requested an update on the operational status of the business separation, inquired about structural profitability differences between the IoT and Cyber divisions, and asked about the primary drivers of the Cyber segment's revenue beat.

Answer

CEO John Giamatteo stated that significant progress has been made on the separation, with the focus now on balancing further separation with avoiding dissynergies and new costs. CFO Tim Foote deferred the question on divisional profitability to the upcoming Investor Day. Giamatteo attributed the Cyber beat to broad-based strength across license, service, and hardware, including a Secusmart device refresh cycle and durable performance from UEM and AtHoc.

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Paul Treiber's questions to BLACKBERRY (BB) leadership • Q1 2025

Question

Paul Treiber from RBC Capital Markets inquired about the plan to achieve the remaining $25 million in cost reductions to meet the $150 million target. He also asked if the separation of IT systems is the primary bottleneck for the full separation of the business units.

Answer

CEO John Giamatteo expressed confidence in reaching the full cost-saving target, stating the next steps involve untangling complex, shared IT systems like Salesforce and NetSuite to create right-sized solutions for each division. He clarified that while IT separation is a key project, the business units are already operating with separate leadership and increased agility, which represents the most significant benefit realized to date.

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Paul Treiber's questions to DESCARTES SYSTEMS GROUP (DSGX) leadership

Paul Treiber's questions to DESCARTES SYSTEMS GROUP (DSGX) leadership • Q4 2025

Question

Paul Treiber questioned if lower professional services and license revenue indicated a customer pause, asked about the slight dip in organic growth, and inquired how Global Trade Intelligence (GTI) acts as a 'door opener'.

Answer

CEO Ed Ryan clarified that the focus is on recurring services revenue, not licenses, and that the slight organic growth fluctuation was not a concern. He confirmed that GTI is a significant 'door opener' for new business, second only to the core network, as rising tariff complexity drives demand and creates opportunities to cross-sell other solutions.

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Paul Treiber's questions to DESCARTES SYSTEMS GROUP (DSGX) leadership • Q4 2025

Question

Paul Treiber of RBC Capital Markets questioned if lighter professional services and license revenue indicated a customer pause, asked about the organic service revenue growth rate, and inquired how Global Trade Intelligence wins lead to broader sales discussions.

Answer

CEO Ed Ryan clarified that the company's focus is on recurring services revenue, not professional services or licenses, and that sales were strong. He stated that 6% organic services growth was a 'fine number' and the primary goal remains 10-15% adjusted EBITDA growth. He explained that while the Global Logistics Network is the main entry point for customers, Global Trade Intelligence is a key secondary way to win business and then cross-sell the broader portfolio of solutions.

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Paul Treiber's questions to DESCARTES SYSTEMS GROUP (DSGX) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Sought clarification on whether the 9% organic growth figure included hardware revenue, if the Q3 baseline revenue includes the expected $2.5 million in hardware sales, and the deal structure for the remaining 5% of the ASD acquisition.

Answer

The 9% organic growth is for the total business. The Q3 baseline includes a portion of the expected hardware sales for which orders are already confirmed. The payment for the remaining 5% of ASD is not a premium but was part of the original deal structure due to seller preferences for a deferred payment.

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Paul Treiber's questions to DESCARTES SYSTEMS GROUP (DSGX) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Paul Treiber sought clarification on several financial points, including whether the 9% organic growth figure was for the total business, if the Q3 baseline revenue included the anticipated $2.5 million in hardware sales, and the deal structure for the remaining 5% purchase of the ASD acquisition.

Answer

CFO Allan Brett confirmed the 9% organic growth applies to the total business. He clarified that the Q3 baseline includes a portion of the hardware sales for which orders are confirmed, but not the full estimate. Regarding the ASD acquisition, he stated the final 5% purchase is part of the original deal structure and does not involve a premium.

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Paul Treiber's questions to DESCARTES SYSTEMS GROUP (DSGX) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Paul Treiber from RBC Capital Markets sought clarification on whether the 9% organic growth figure included hardware revenue, if the Q3 baseline accounts for expected hardware sales, and the structure of the remaining 5% ASD acquisition.

Answer

CFO Allan Brett confirmed the 9% organic growth is for the total business. He explained the Q3 baseline includes a portion of the anticipated $2.5 million in hardware sales for which orders are already in hand. He also clarified the remaining 5% ASD purchase is not at a premium and aligns with the original deal structure.

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Paul Treiber's questions to DESCARTES SYSTEMS GROUP (DSGX) leadership • Q1 2025

Question

Inquired about the timing of ocean volume recovery translating to domestic trucking, whether this is reflected in the baseline, and if recent M&A activity has paused the hunt for more acquisitions.

Answer

The company clarified that the translation of ocean to domestic volumes is a timing issue and is not yet reflected in the baseline, which is a point-in-time metric. They also confirmed that the internal teams have the capacity for more M&A and are actively looking at a favorable pipeline of opportunities.

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Paul Treiber's questions to DESCARTES SYSTEMS GROUP (DSGX) leadership • Q1 2025

Question

Paul Treiber sought clarification on whether the lag between rising ocean volumes and domestic trucking volumes was a matter of timing. He also asked if the two recent large acquisitions have consumed the company's internal capacity for further M&A.

Answer

CEO Ed Ryan clarified that his comments were about timing; the company has recently seen ocean volumes pick up and expects this to translate into increased domestic volumes in the coming months, as it has historically. He stated this potential uplift is not yet reflected in the baseline revenue. Regarding M&A, Ryan asserted that the internal teams are not consumed and that the company has the capacity to pursue more deals, noting a favorable environment with many opportunities at reasonable prices.

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Paul Treiber's questions to DESCARTES SYSTEMS GROUP (DSGX) leadership • Q4 2024

Question

Asked about the nature of organic growth drivers (structural vs. short-term), how stronger growth might change the business model, and the company's preference for acquiring profitable versus unprofitable businesses.

Answer

The company views the growth drivers as structural and long-term, driven by a global realization of the importance of supply chain technology. They will continue to prudently increase investments but not fundamentally change the business model. For acquisitions, they remain disciplined in seeking profitable, growing, recurring-revenue businesses and are not interested in 'fixer-uppers'.

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Paul Treiber's questions to SHOPIFY (SHOP) leadership

Paul Treiber's questions to SHOPIFY (SHOP) leadership • Q4 2024

Question

Paul Treiber asked where Shopify is seeing the most operational impact from its internal use of AI and questioned the magnitude of the productivity gains achieved so far.

Answer

President Harley Finkelstein explained that Shopify is a major net beneficiary of AI, using it both for merchant-facing products (Sidekick, Media Editor) and internally. He highlighted internal productivity gains in developer effectiveness and in the support organization, where AI handles lower-quality conversations, allowing human support to focus on high-quality interactions with merchants.

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