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    Pavel Molchanov

    Research Analyst at Raymond James

    Pavel Molchanov is Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Raymond James & Associates, specializing in renewable energy, clean technology, and the broader Basic Materials sector. He covers a wide range of companies, including major players in solar, wind, electric vehicles, and energy infrastructure, with a research portfolio comprising more than 100 stocks and achieving a TipRanks analyst success rate of 49% and average returns of 4.2% per rating. Molchanov has been with Raymond James since 2003, beginning his career in Equity Research and later expanding into Investment Strategy, and has garnered recognition through awards such as the StarMine Top Analyst and Forbes Blue Chip Analyst surveys. He holds a Bachelor of Science in economics from Duke University, is a published thought leader on decarbonization, and is actively involved in educational and sustainability initiatives, serving on multiple advisory boards.

    Pavel Molchanov's questions to REX AMERICAN RESOURCES (REX) leadership

    Pavel Molchanov's questions to REX AMERICAN RESOURCES (REX) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James asked if REX would delay decisions on its carbon capture project until there is clarity that the Section 45Q tax credit will remain under a new administration. He also requested a historical perspective on how the EPA set ethanol blending mandates during the 2017-2021 presidential term.

    Answer

    Executive Chairman Stuart Rose gave his personal opinion that REX would continue with the carbon capture project even if 45Q were eliminated, believing the market for low-carbon ethanol and carbon credits would remain strong. CEO Zafar Rizvi added that the project was initiated in 2018 before the Inflation Reduction Act and he doesn't anticipate major changes to 45Q due to significant industry investment. Regarding historical mandates, Stuart Rose explained that blending volumes were previously set by law, whereas now the EPA has more discretion to set levels, creating uncertainty.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to REX AMERICAN RESOURCES (REX) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James questioned REX's capital allocation priorities for its significant cash balance, particularly with the carbon capture construction slowdown, and asked for the latest thinking on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

    Answer

    Executive Chairman Stuart Rose detailed the capital priorities as: 1) completing the One Earth CCS and ethanol expansion, 2) potentially expanding the South Dakota plant, 3) evaluating acquisitions, and 4) opportunistic share buybacks. CEO Zafar Rizvi explained that pursuing SAF is contingent on first completing the carbon sequestration project to lower their carbon intensity score and awaiting clear 45Z tax credit guidelines from the government.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to Oklo (OKLO) leadership

    Pavel Molchanov's questions to Oklo (OKLO) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov from Raymond James asked if the large number of new entrants in the small modular reactor (SMR) space is causing confusion for prospective customers. He also asked for clarification on whether Oklo's previously outlined project economics included assumptions for federal Investment Tax Credits (ITC) or Production Tax Credits (PTC).

    Answer

    CEO Jake Dewitte acknowledged some 'frothiness' in the market but asserted that savvy customers are differentiating based on Oklo's distinct advantages: its customer-focused business model, mature technology with fewer supply chain hurdles, and first-mover progress like its site use permit and secured fuel. CFO Craig Bealmear clarified that the company's base economic models view the ITC/PTC as upside, not a requirement. He noted their projected Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) range of $40-$90/MWh only included the tax credit benefit at the lowest end of the range.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to Oklo (OKLO) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov questioned if the large number of SMR competitors is creating confusion for prospective customers. He also asked for clarification on whether Oklo's previously stated project economics included assumptions for federal Investment Tax Credits (ITC) or Production Tax Credits (PTC).

    Answer

    CEO Jacob Dewitte acknowledged some market confusion but highlighted Oklo's key differentiators: its customer-centric business model, mature technology, capital efficiency, and first-mover advantages like its site permit and secured fuel. CFO Richard Bealmear clarified that Oklo's base economic models do not require the ITC or PTC to generate strong returns, viewing these government incentives as potential upside.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to NET Power (NPWR) leadership

    Pavel Molchanov's questions to NET Power (NPWR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    The analyst inquired about the political risk to the 45Q tax credit following the U.S. election and asked about the company's international expansion plans and opportunities outside of North America.

    Answer

    The CEO expressed confidence that the 45Q tax credit is secure due to its bipartisan appeal and its reliance on the fossil fuel industry. Regarding international plans, the company is prioritizing North America for its superior economics (low-cost gas, carbon incentives) but is exploring opportunities in Australia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East for future expansion once the technology is scaled domestically.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to NET Power (NPWR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James questioned the potential risk to the 45Q tax credit following the U.S. election and inquired about the company's international expansion strategy outside of North America.

    Answer

    CEO Danny Rice expressed confidence that the 45Q tax credit is secure, viewing it as a bipartisan policy that leverages the fossil fuel industry to achieve decarbonization goals. On international strategy, he stated that North America remains the primary focus due to low-cost natural gas and strong carbon incentives. While conversations are ongoing in the Middle East and interest is growing in Australia, these markets are secondary to scaling in the U.S. and Canada first.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to LanzaTech Global (LNZA) leadership

    Pavel Molchanov's questions to LanzaTech Global (LNZA) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James & Associates, Inc. asked for a status update on the LanzaJet Freedom Pines SAF facility and inquired about management's perspective on the potential impact of the U.S. election results on the company's business.

    Answer

    CEO Jennifer Holmgren stated that the Freedom Pines facility has started feed into the system and is past early shakedowns but is not yet producing SAF. On the election's impact, she emphasized LanzaTech's global diversification, which mitigates reliance on any single country's policy, and framed the U.S. IRA as a bipartisan jobs bill, expressing confidence in continued support.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to LanzaTech Global (LNZA) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov asked for an update on the operational status of LanzaJet's Freedom Pines facility and questioned the potential impact of the U.S. election results on LanzaTech's business and relevant climate policies.

    Answer

    CEO Jennifer Holmgren stated that LanzaJet's Freedom Pines facility has started feed into the system and is past early shakedowns but is not yet producing Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Regarding the election, she emphasized LanzaTech's global diversification mitigates single-country policy risk and noted the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has bipartisan support as a jobs bill, which benefits the company's technology.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to LanzaTech Global (LNZA) leadership • Q4 2023

    Question

    The analyst inquired about the role of the LanzaJet Freedom Pines and Steelanol facilities in the 2024 guidance, the potential impact of the U.S. Section 45x tax credit on future projects, and the company's expected in-house CapEx for 2024.

    Answer

    The company stated that 2024 guidance does not include direct revenue from LanzaJet but does include revenue from joint engineering projects. The Steelanol plant has restarted and will contribute licensing, support, and CarbonSmart offtake revenues. U.S. projects are expected to benefit from Section 45 credits, and 2024 CapEx is forecasted to be consistent with 2023 levels.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to TPIC leadership

    Pavel Molchanov's questions to TPIC leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James asked for clarification on the 40% lower demand outlook for Turkey, questioning if it stemmed from domestic market weakness or broader European issues. He also inquired about the struggles in the European wind market and sought an update on the profitability of the service operations business.

    Answer

    CEO Bill Siwek clarified the Turkey demand issue is a combination of a shift to Chinese suppliers and lower demand in the broader European market. He attributed Europe's struggles to regulatory hurdles like permitting and grid connection delays. Regarding the service business, Siwek confirmed it grew its top line, is expected to continue growing, and is EBITDA positive moving forward after a period of being near breakeven due to non-revenue generating work.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to TPIC leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James & Associates, Inc. inquired about the sustainability of the high average selling price (ASP) for blades seen in Q2. He also asked about the EBITDA contribution from the field services business and the company's interest in the offshore wind market.

    Answer

    CFO Ryan Miller explained the high ASP was due to a favorable product mix with newer, more expensive blades and would likely decrease as production of shorter, lower-priced blades ramps up. President and CEO William Siwek noted the field services business currently has minimal EBITDA contribution due to a focus on non-revenue generating inspections but expects margins to improve as technicians return to revenue work. He added that while offshore wind is interesting, there is no immediate plan to enter the market.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to TPIC leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Asked about the sustainability of high blade pricing, the EBITDA contribution from the field services business, and the company's interest in the offshore wind market.

    Answer

    The high blade pricing in Q2 was due to a temporary product mix and is not sustainable; it's expected to decrease. The field services business currently has minimal EBITDA contribution due to internal repair campaigns but is expected to become more profitable as technicians shift back to revenue-generating work. The company is not actively pursuing the offshore wind market at this time.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to Ameresco (AMRC) leadership

    Pavel Molchanov's questions to Ameresco (AMRC) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James asked about the differences in federal contracting demand and structure during the first Trump administration compared to the last four years. He also inquired if Greece is now a primary European market for Ameresco, on par with the UK.

    Answer

    CEO George Sakellaris and Nicole Bulgarino, President of Federal and Utility Infrastructure, explained that performance contracting was significantly stronger under the previous Trump administration, with approximately 3x the contract volume. Bulgarino noted a strong alignment with the military for infrastructure improvements. Regarding Europe, Sakellaris confirmed Greece is a key market due to a strong partnership and reputation for execution, while also highlighting Italy as another growing market providing valuable diversification.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) leadership

    Pavel Molchanov's questions to Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov asked for clarification on the new private station for Houston Metro, which he thought was a long-time customer, and questioned the company's capital position and potential need for future financing.

    Answer

    CEO Andrew Littlefair and Executive Robert Vreeland clarified that Clean Energy had not previously done business with Houston Metro, making the new contract a significant win with a major transit agency that had been a holdout. Vreeland also confirmed the company has not fully utilized its financing, with $100 million still available, and does not anticipate needing to raise additional capital for its current growth plans.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to CHART INDUSTRIES (GTLS) leadership

    Pavel Molchanov's questions to CHART INDUSTRIES (GTLS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov inquired if 2025 revenue would be more or less back-end weighted than 2024 and asked about potential risks to the 2025 outlook from changes in U.S. hydrogen or carbon capture policies post-election.

    Answer

    CEO Jillian Evanko stated that she expects 2025 revenue to be more balanced than in prior years due to strong backlog coverage, while reiterating that Q1 will remain the seasonally lowest quarter. She asserted that there is no risk to the 2025 outlook from the U.S. election outcome, as Chart's diverse product applications position it well regardless of policy shifts, and noted that potential upside from pent-up demand was not included in the forecast.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to CHART INDUSTRIES (GTLS) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov asked about Chart's business opportunities in the United Kingdom, particularly for green hydrogen, given the new government and Howden's local presence.

    Answer

    CEO Jillian Evanko confirmed a strong position in the U.K. due to Howden's compression footprint. She noted recent discussions revealed opportunities beyond green hydrogen, including industrial CCUS and water treatment. She views this as potential upside, facilitated by Howden's established local relationships.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to ITRON (ITRI) leadership

    Pavel Molchanov's questions to ITRON (ITRI) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov questioned whether the recent double-digit growth in the Outcomes segment is sustainable or a one-off, and asked about Itron's role in the development of virtual power plants (VPPs).

    Answer

    CEO Tom Deitrich explained that the Outcomes growth is a structural trend, following the growth in Network deployments with about a 12-month lag. He confirmed Itron plays a key role in VPPs, as its Outcomes segment provides the software, like the Grid Edge Optimizer, to control distributed assets at the grid edge to balance supply and demand.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to Energy Recovery (ERII) leadership

    Pavel Molchanov's questions to Energy Recovery (ERII) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James asked about the geographic diversification of the desalination customer mix beyond the Middle East and questioned the go-to-market strategy for the CO2 refrigeration business, including whether it would expand beyond a select list of partners.

    Answer

    President and CEO David Moon responded that the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region remains the dominant revenue source, accounting for over 70% in Q3, and is expected to be a key driver for the next five years. Regarding CO2, he confirmed the strategy remains centered on integrating the PX G through OEM partners to achieve specification with end-users, noting that while current partnerships are strong, they are in discussions with new potential partners.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to ECOLAB (ECL) leadership

    Pavel Molchanov's questions to ECOLAB (ECL) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov asked for the company's latest thoughts on the M&A front, noting the absence of acquisitions since 2023.

    Answer

    CEO Christophe Beck highlighted Ecolab's strong M&A track record, its healthy balance sheet with low leverage, and a robust pipeline of opportunities. He stated the company is focused on three key areas for acquisitions: high-end water technology, digital and high-tech, and life sciences. While not commenting on specific timing, he emphasized that Ecolab is well-positioned to act on opportunities that make sense for shareholders.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to WORLD KINECT (WKC) leadership

    Pavel Molchanov's questions to WORLD KINECT (WKC) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov asked for the low-carbon gross profit percentage for the quarter, the year-over-year volume growth for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), and whether the company is observing increased natural gas demand from data centers.

    Answer

    Executive Ira Birns reported that low-carbon activities constituted 11% of gross profit and that SAF volumes are up 40% year-to-date, though from a small base. Executive Michael J. Kasbar elaborated on the strategic importance of SAF as the key decarbonization solution for aviation. Kasbar also confirmed the company is actively engaged in conversations with data center operators and hyperscalers, viewing their growing energy needs as a significant opportunity across its service offerings.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to Enphase Energy (ENPH) leadership

    Pavel Molchanov's questions to Enphase Energy (ENPH) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov asked why lower component prices in Europe aren't offsetting weaker demand from cheaper electricity, and questioned Enphase's competitiveness in the price-sensitive Indian market.

    Answer

    Chief Products Officer Raghu Belur explained that in Europe, the loss of urgency from the prior energy crisis and a weaker economy are the primary headwinds. For India, President and CEO Badri Kothandaraman stated that Enphase is targeting the premium residential segment where frequent power outages create strong demand for their reliable battery backup solution as a superior alternative to lead-acid systems. Raghu Belur added that Indian incentives for small systems also make it a perfect market for their microinverters.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to ALTM leadership

    Pavel Molchanov's questions to ALTM leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Asked about the timeline and triggers for reevaluating the paused capital spending plans and questioned why the Nemaska project was protected from the CapEx reductions.

    Answer

    The paused projects will be reevaluated as current ones near completion, with a decision likely in 16-18 months. Nemaska is proceeding because it is a unique, well-advanced, integrated ex-China hydroxide project with strong customer commitments, a favorable cash profile due to its 50% partner, and a great environmental footprint.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to NOVA leadership

    Pavel Molchanov's questions to NOVA leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Asked about the macroeconomic drivers behind the observed surge in demand since May and for details on the cost structure and recent trends of their in-house service operations.

    Answer

    The demand surge is attributed to rising utility rates, grid reliability issues, and falling equipment costs, creating a strong value proposition for consumers. On service costs, the company has been driving the per-customer cost down while improving service levels, viewing this capability as a key competitive advantage. More specific cost details may be provided in the future.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to Maxeon Solar Technologies (MAXN) leadership

    Pavel Molchanov's questions to Maxeon Solar Technologies (MAXN) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov followed up on the DOE loan guarantee, asking how a Chinese majority owner complicates the process. He also requested clarity on the expected share count after the financing and the specific factors needed to achieve positive EBITDA in early 2025.

    Answer

    CEO Bill Mulligan confirmed the TZE ownership complicates the DOE loan process but reiterated they are working closely with the DOE on the advanced application. CFO Kai Strohbecke explained the final share count is complex due to multiple variables and directed investors to the 6-K filing for details, noting TZE's target stake is at least 50.1%. Bill Mulligan added that the path to profitability relies on new technology adoption, rebuilding the US DG channel, and transitioning to higher-priced utility-scale contracts, not a dramatic market price recovery.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to Maxeon Solar Technologies (MAXN) leadership • Q3 2023

    Question

    Asked about the geographic sales mix for 2024, specifically if Europe would constitute a majority of sales. Also inquired about the status of the China JV and whether the recent sharp decline in global module pricing is stimulating demand.

    Answer

    The company stated that the U.S. utility-scale business, not Europe, is becoming the major and growing part of its shipments. Europe will remain important but is expected to be flattish. The China JV is primarily used for offtake for Maxeon's international markets, providing a cost-effective residential panel for Europe. Regarding pricing, they have not yet seen evidence that lower module prices are stimulating demand, citing headwinds from high interest rates and the fact that module cost is only a fraction of the total installed system price.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to Emeren Group (SOL) leadership

    Pavel Molchanov's questions to Emeren Group (SOL) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov asked about potential module supply complications due to new U.S. tariffs, the strategic reasoning behind the large concentration of early-stage projects in Spain, and the company's remaining capacity for share repurchases.

    Answer

    CEO Yumin Liu stated that new U.S. tariffs have minimal impact because Emeren's U.S. strategy involves selling projects before the construction phase (NTP), though modules for a small current project have been secured. He contrasted this with Europe, which has no new tariffs. Mr. Liu explained the heavy focus on Spain is due to its strong market potential, established local partnerships, and the government's consideration of adding battery storage incentives. CFO Ke Chen added that approximately $15 million remains authorized for the company's share buyback program.

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    Pavel Molchanov's questions to Ads-Tec Energy Public Ltd (ADSE) leadership

    Pavel Molchanov's questions to Ads-Tec Energy Public Ltd (ADSE) leadership • Q4 2022

    Question

    Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James inquired about the fiscal year 2023 revenue outlook, specifically asking what portion was deferred from 2022, the revenue for the March quarter, the projected geographic sales mix, and the status of the company's residential energy product.

    Answer

    CEO Thomas Speidel and CFO Wolfgang Breme explained that while some revenue shifted from 2022, they were not disclosing specific Q1 2023 figures at this time. Speidel projected U.S. revenue would constitute 10-15% of the 2023 total, with the remainder from Europe, noting the exact country mix is variable. He also clarified that the residential product has been deprioritized to focus resources on the core ChargePost launch and supply chain management.

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