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    Pedro Fonseca

    Research Analyst at XP Inc.

    Pedro Fonseca is an Equity Analyst at XP Investimentos, specializing in coverage of major Brazilian listed companies within the agribusiness, food, and energy sectors. He currently covers firms such as BrasilAgro, M. Dias Branco, and Cosan, and has issued investment ratings and target prices that are frequently cited in Brazilian investor relations communications; performance metrics on platforms like TipRanks are not publicly available, but XP analysts are widely respected in the market. Fonseca began his career in credit and real estate research at Santander before joining XP in 2021, where he has published over 1,400 research articles as of mid-2024. His professional credentials and securities licenses are not listed publicly, but as a sell-side analyst at XP, he operates within the regulatory framework required for Brazilian securities researchers.

    Pedro Fonseca's questions to AGRO3.SA leadership

    Pedro Fonseca's questions to AGRO3.SA leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Pedro Fonseca inquired about BrasilAgro's land acquisition strategy, particularly the attractiveness of the Maranhão and Piauí regions, and asked for an outlook on potential pricing. He also questioned the opportunities and risks emerging from the US-China trade war, specifically for the soy market.

    Answer

    CEO André Guillaumon explained the company's counter-cyclical strategy of buying land when others are selling, targeting regions like Maranhão and Piauí where producers have become more leveraged. Regarding the trade war, Guillaumon stated that while Brazil benefits marginally, especially in animal protein, a complete shift of Chinese soy demand to Brazil is unlikely due to logistical complexities. He anticipates a return to positive soy premiums but not at the extreme levels seen in the past. He does not foresee new peaks in land prices but also doesn't expect significant nominal reductions.

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    Pedro Fonseca's questions to AGRO3.SA leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Pedro Fonseca inquired about the margin outlook for the off-season corn harvest and the expected productivity for sugarcane given recent rainfall patterns in the Southeast and Midwest regions.

    Answer

    Executive André Guillaumon confirmed that a recovery in corn margins prompted an increase in the planted area. For sugarcane, he stated that while the company is investing heavily to boost productivity, the delayed start to the rainy season will likely impact the harvest. However, an extension of the rainy season into March and April could help recover some of the potential losses.

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    Pedro Fonseca's questions to AGRO3.SA leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Pedro Fonseca inquired about the margin outlook for the off-season corn harvest and the expected sugarcane productivity given recent rainfall patterns.

    Answer

    Executive André Guillaumon confirmed that corn margins recovered significantly, leading to an increased harvest area. For sugarcane, he explained that while the delayed start of rains impacted the current harvest, the company is investing heavily in irrigation and expects a potential recovery if the rainy season extends, which could lead to 'very positive surprises' in the next fiscal year.

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    Pedro Fonseca's questions to AGRO3.SA leadership • FY 2024

    Question

    Pedro Fonseca followed up by asking about the company's hedging strategy for soybean and corn, questioning the current hedge levels and what market triggers might prompt an increase in their hedged positions to secure better prices.

    Answer

    CEO André Guillaumon stated that while only 17-18% of the next harvest is hedged, the company correctly anticipated a recovery in Brazilian premiums against falling Chicago prices. He noted that the current high exchange rate makes further selling attractive and that the company is monitoring geopolitical events and South American crop progress to capture volatility for a better average price.

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    Pedro Fonseca's questions to AGRO3.SA leadership • FY 2024

    Question

    Following up, Pedro Fonseca asked about the company's hedging strategy for soybean and corn, noting the current hedge level is below last year's, and questioned what triggers might prompt an increase in hedging to capture better prices.

    Answer

    Executive André Guillaumon explained their strategy correctly anticipated a drop in Chicago prices and a recovery in the Brazilian premium. For the upcoming harvest, 17% is hedged, mainly via derivatives. He noted that the current high exchange rate makes further selling attractive and that the company is closely monitoring geopolitical factors, South American climate, and demand drivers like corn-based ethanol before making further moves.

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    Pedro Fonseca's questions to AGRO3.SA leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Pedro Fonseca of XP Inc. inquired about the triggers for the recent Chaparral farm sale, the company's outlook on the upcoming USDA report, and how it plans to allocate capital from the sale, specifically asking about share buybacks, dividends, or growth investments.

    Answer

    Executive André Guillaumon explained that the farm sale demonstrates the company's resilient strategy of generating value from both operations and real estate, providing financial 'breadth' for future portfolio management. He stated that while a 25% mandatory dividend exists, any further capital return decisions rest with the Board. Regarding the USDA report, Guillaumon anticipates a downward revision of Brazil's soybean crop estimate, which he believes will positively impact the basis price for Brazilian soybeans, a trend amplified by the recent flooding in Southern Brazil.

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    Pedro Fonseca's questions to AGRO3.SA leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Pedro Fonseca of XP Inc. inquired about the catalyst for the recent Chaparral farm sale, the company's outlook on the upcoming USDA grain report, and the intended use of sales proceeds for capital allocation, such as dividends, buybacks, or growth investments.

    Answer

    Executive André Guillaumon explained that the farm sale underscores BrasilAgro's dual strategy of generating value from both operations and real estate, with the proceeds providing flexibility for future portfolio management. While deferring a decision on capital allocation to the Board, he highlighted the company's history of shareholder returns. Guillaumon anticipates the USDA report will guide Brazilian soybean production down to 152-153 million tonnes, a factor he believes is already priced in, and noted that logistical disruptions in Southern Brazil could support the price basis, validating their strategy to hold soybeans into the second half of the year.

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    Pedro Fonseca's questions to AGRO3.SA leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Pedro Fonseca of XP Investimentos inquired about the expected crop mix for the upcoming harvest, specifically the role of sugarcane given its current attractiveness, and sought more details on the land sale market, including price trends amid lower commodity returns.

    Answer

    Executive André Guillaumon responded that BrasilAgro plans to strengthen its crop mix with more cotton and beans, and will definitively grow sugarcane production in the next year. Regarding real estate, he expressed confidence in achieving land sale targets, noting that the company's strategy of transforming land creates value independent of commodity price fluctuations, which primarily affect mature land values. He reiterated the strategy of selling land when commodity prices are high and buying when they are low.

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    Pedro Fonseca's questions to AGRO3.SA leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Pedro Fonseca asked about BrasilAgro's crop mix strategy for the next harvest, particularly the potential for increasing sugarcane cultivation. He also sought clarification on the real estate market, questioning the outlook for land prices given the decline in commodity values and referencing a prior CEO comment on price per hectare.

    Answer

    Executive André Guillaumon confirmed that the company plans to increase sugarcane production in the coming year, alongside strengthening its cotton and bean mix. On real estate, Guillaumon explained that while mature land values are tied to commodity prices, BrasilAgro's value-add strategy of transforming land provides resilience. He stated he is confident in achieving real estate sales goals for the year, noting continued market liquidity and the company's counter-cyclical strategy of selling land when commodity prices are high.

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    Pedro Fonseca's questions to AGRO3.SA leadership • Q4 2023

    Question

    Pedro Fonseca from XP inquired about the company's hedging strategy for the 23/24 soybean harvest, specifically the pricing and structure of the 50% sold. He also asked for the target gross margin per hectare for key crops like soybean and sugarcane, and the risk associated with rising nitrogen fertilizer prices.

    Answer

    CEO André Guillaumon detailed the hedging strategy, noting that 25% of soybeans were sold at $12.70, with an additional portion being sold via an accumulation strategy around $12.75. He projected soybean margins returning to R$2,500/ha and sugarcane to R$4,000/ha. CFO & IRO Gustavo Lopez confirmed these targets, adding that corn margins are a significant challenge. Guillaumon also explained that nitrogen fertilizer prices are volatile, linked to oil and Northern Hemisphere winter conditions, making early purchases for the winter crop risky.

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    Pedro Fonseca's questions to BRF (BRFS) leadership

    Pedro Fonseca's questions to BRF (BRFS) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Pedro Fonseca asked about the outlook for the international market in the second half of 2024, the potential for securing more export permits, and the key drivers behind the current balance in poultry supply.

    Answer

    CEO Miguel Gularte explained that global supply and demand are balanced, and the 57 new permits secured in H1 2024 allow BRF to strategically place production and maximize value. He noted strong demand from Asia and a favorable grain cost environment. CFO Fabio Mariano added that Halal regions are performing exceptionally well, with a focus on growing the share of higher-margin processed products. He also noted that while Brazilian production capacity is growing, it remains in balance with demand.

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    Pedro Fonseca's questions to AGRO3 leadership

    Pedro Fonseca's questions to AGRO3 leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Pedro Fonseca asked about the company's crop mix strategy for the upcoming harvest, particularly the potential increase in sugarcane, and sought details on the real estate market, including land price resilience amid commodity declines and opportunities for farm acquisitions. He also inquired about the price outlook for soybeans for the remainder of the year.

    Answer

    Executive André Guillaumon responded that the company will increase its sugarcane cultivation, along with strengthening its mix with more cotton and beans. On real estate, he explained that while mature land prices are linked to commodities, BrasilAgro's strategy of transforming land creates value and maintains liquidity. He does not foresee a drop in land value multiples (bags per hectare) yet. For soybeans, Guillaumon identified the local basis as the key profitability driver, noting that 60% of the crop was already sold and expressing cautious optimism for a basis recovery in the second half of the year.

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    Pedro Fonseca's questions to BrasilAgro - Brazilian Agricultural Real Estate (LND) leadership

    Pedro Fonseca's questions to BrasilAgro - Brazilian Agricultural Real Estate (LND) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Pedro Fonseca from XP Investimentos asked for the company's price outlook on soybean and corn for the upcoming weeks and the potential risk from improved climate maps. He also questioned the current environment for land acquisitions following recent price increases.

    Answer

    CEO André Guillaumon expressed optimism for corn prices due to factors pointing to lower production, such as planting delays and reduced technology adoption. For soybeans, he is more conservative, expecting stable prices influenced by geopolitical tensions. On real estate, Guillaumon stated that the market remains liquid with strong buyer interest. He sees a balance of opportunities, noting that high interest rates could create financial stress for some landowners, presenting acquisition possibilities for BrasilAgro.

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    Pedro Fonseca's questions to BrasilAgro - Brazilian Agricultural Real Estate (LND) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Pedro Fonseca of XP Investimentos asked for the company's price expectations for soybean and corn in the coming weeks, including the potential risk from improved climate maps. He also inquired about the outlook for land acquisitions given the recent increase in land prices.

    Answer

    Executive André Guillaumon expressed optimism for a recovery in corn prices, citing delayed planting, reduced acreage across the sector, and lower technology adoption as factors that will likely decrease production. For soybeans, he is more conservative, expecting prices to hold steady, supported by geopolitical tensions but facing a challenging year for basis premiums. Regarding land acquisitions, Guillaumon stated that despite high prices, opportunities are emerging from financially stressed sellers impacted by lower crop margins and high interest rates, creating a more balanced market for both buying and selling.

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    Pedro Fonseca's questions to BrasilAgro - Brazilian Agricultural Real Estate (LND) leadership • Q4 2023

    Question

    Pedro Fonseca of XP Inc. inquired about the company's soybean hedging strategy, specifically the 'accumulation' operations that brought total sales to over 50%, and asked for the target gross margins for key crops like soybean, sugarcane, and corn.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO André Guillaumon detailed that beyond the initial 25% of soybean sold at BRL 12.70, accumulation strategies are being used to sell more at around BRL 12.75. He also noted challenges from exchange rates and a negative basis. Both Guillaumon and CFO Gustavo Lopez projected a return to a BRL 2,500/hectare margin for soybean and BRL 4,000/hectare for sugarcane, while highlighting significant margin pressure and uncertainty for the corn winter crop.

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