Pedro Leduc

Pedro Leduc asked about the outlook for Net Interest Margins (NIMs), specifically if Q4 NIMs would revert to Q2 levels and if Net Interest Income (NII) growth in 2026 would exceed the 35% real loan book growth. He also questioned why Banco Macro expects NPLs to peak in Q4, earlier than some peers, and what measures were taken to control this.

Answer

IR Nicolás Torres projected Q4 NIMs to be similar to Q2 levels (23.5%), with 2026 NIMs around 20%. He anticipated NII growth slightly above the 35% real loan growth. Regarding NPLs, he stated a Q4 peak is expected due to restrictive credit measures implemented since Q1/Q2 2025 and stabilizing real interest rates. He noted that with significant loan growth, NPL ratios might normalize to the mid-2s.

Pedro Leduc asked about the expected trajectory of Net Interest Margins (NIMs) for Q4 2025 and 2026, whether Net Interest Income (NII) would outpace loan growth, and the specific measures Banco Macro implemented to control NPLs, given its more optimistic peak forecast.

Answer

IR Nicolás Torres anticipated Q4 2025 NIMs to return to Q2 levels (23.5%) and average around 20% for 2026, with NII growing slightly above the 35% real loan growth. He explained that Banco Macro became more restrictive on consumer credit lines since Q1/Q2 2025, and positive real interest rates are expected to normalize portfolio behavior, with past due loans potentially settling in the mid-2s given significant real loan growth.

Pedro Leduc inquired about the cost of risk, asking if there were any changes in the timeline or one-off effects in Q3 2025, following the anticipated write-offs in Q2. He also sought clarification on the slight drop in stage two and three coverage, questioning if it was driven by mix or perception of expected loss.

Answer

CFO Gustavo Alejo clarified that there were no changes in policy or management criteria in Q3 2025, and the Q2 write-off was a one-time anticipation of loss. He stated that coverage changes reflected loan originations, mix, and performance. CEO Mario Leão added that the bank's strategy since last year has been to renegotiate past-due loans only with a cash component, and they would continue to anticipate losses to de-risk the portfolio, focusing on new, better-performing cohorts.

Pedro Leduc inquired about the BRL 5 billion cost of risk, asking if the Q3 reduction was due to further write-off anticipations or a one-time Q2 effect, and what to expect going forward. He also asked about the slight drop in Stage 2 and 3 coverage, questioning if it was driven by mix changes or expected loss perception.

Answer

CFO Gustavo Alejo confirmed no changes in policy or management regarding loss anticipation or coverage criteria, stating the Q2 anticipation was a one-off. He clarified that coverage results reflect loan originations, mix, and performance. CEO Mario Leão added that the bank's strategy since last year involves rigorous renegotiation policies (requiring a cash component) and proactive portfolio purging to de-risk and focus on better-performing new cohorts, which may lead to further loss anticipations.

Pedro Leduc from Itau BBA asked for details on the 15-90 day NPL increase, specifically the impact from government-guaranteed loans. He also inquired about the sustainability of the strong expense control performance.

Answer

VP & IR Gustavo Alejo Viviani confirmed that government-guaranteed loans, which have longer recognition periods, contributed to the 15-90 day NPL increase but are not a concern due to the underlying collateral. CEO Mario Roberto Opice Leão added that the strong expense performance is part of a multi-year efficiency and transformation agenda that will continue through 2026-2027, suggesting the gains are sustainable.

Pedro Leduc requested clarification on the term 'stabilize' regarding NPLs and asked about the outlook for financial margins in the second half of the year, noting the Q2 increase and considering factors like high-rate government bonds.

Answer

CFO Gonzalo Fernández Covaro clarified that NPLs are expected to rise slightly in Q3 before stabilizing by quarter-end. He warned that Q3 margins will see significant deterioration due to a sharp increase in short-term funding costs from tighter monetary policy. He anticipates margins could recover to Q2 levels sometime in Q4, post-elections, but the timing is uncertain.

Pedro Leduc from Itaú BBA asked if the bank would shift its loan growth focus from retail to corporate given rising NPLs, and questioned the path to achieving double-digit ROE by year-end with low provision coverage.

Answer

CFO Carmen Arroyo stated that while consumer loan growth might slow due to system-wide NPLs, credit card, SME, and corporate loan growth will remain strong, resulting in only a slight change to the portfolio mix. She explained the path to the target ROE is supported by strong performance in fees, effective expense control, and a stable Net Interest Margin, as the bank's balance sheet is well-matched against interest rate volatility.

Pedro Leduc of Itaú BBA inquired about a potential shift in loan growth from retail to corporate due to rising NPLs, and asked for a reconciliation of how the bank plans to achieve its double-digit ROE target by year-end given current profitability and low provision coverage.

Answer

CFO Carmen Arroyo acknowledged a deceleration in consumer loans but noted that credit card growth remains high, and the overall loan mix is not expected to change significantly. She explained that the path to the target ROE is supported by strong performance in fees and commissions, disciplined expense control, and a stable Net Interest Margin, which should mitigate the impact of rising NPLs.

Pedro Leduc from Itaú BBA inquired about a potential shift in loan growth from retail to corporate due to rising NPLs and asked how the bank will bridge from its current ROE to the guided double-digit ROE, especially with seemingly low provision coverage.

Answer

CFO Carmen Arroyo acknowledged a potential slowdown in consumer loans due to system-wide NPL trends but noted that credit card growth remains high, and SME and corporate lending are expected to maintain their growth pace. To reach the ROE target, she highlighted strong performance in fees and commissions, strict expense control, and a stable Net Interest Margin (NIM), as the bank's balance sheet is well-matched, limiting the negative impact of interest rate volatility.

Pedro Leduc of Itaú BBA asked about a potential shift in loan growth from retail to corporate due to rising NPLs and sought a reconciliation for achieving the guided double-digit ROE given current profitability and low provision coverage.

Answer

CFO Carmen Arroyo acknowledged a potential slowdown in consumer loans but expects credit card, SME, and commercial loan growth to remain strong, resulting in only a slight mix change. She explained that the path to the target ROE is supported by strong performance in fees and commissions, rigorous expense control, and a stable Net Interest Margin (NIM) due to a well-matched balance sheet.

Pedro Leduc from Itaú BBA asked for more detail on the quarter-over-quarter gross margin expansion, seeking to understand the key drivers and how to think about the trend for the second half of the year.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Victor Mansur identified the main drivers of the margin expansion as lower expected credit losses and a normalization of sales taxes, which were higher than average previously. He also mentioned that the channel mix, with a growing internal sales force, contributed to the improvement. He suggested that the last-twelve-months margin trend is a reasonable expectation for the remainder of the year.

Pedro Leduc of Itau BBA asked for context on the quarterly decline in take rates, considering seasonality and the shift in remuneration models, and questioned whether the lower SG&A expenses were sustainable or a result of seasonal factors.

Answer

CFO Victor Mansur attributed the lower SG&A partly to seasonality in performance-based compensation but reiterated a commitment to overall efficiency. Regarding take rates, he noted Q4 was unusually high and expects a recovery from Q1 levels. CEO Thiago Maffra added that the growing fee-based model (projected to reach BRL 100 billion) lowers the take rate but increases share-of-wallet, resulting in a neutral revenue impact.

Pedro Leduc of Itaú BBA asked for clarification on why the number of clients using PIX financing transactionally and the number of active credit cards both fell slightly, despite initiatives to increase credit limits.

Answer

CFO Guilherme Lago addressed both points. He stated that despite minor quarterly fluctuations, the PIX financing portfolio continues to grow and has been a remarkable success. Regarding active cards, he explained that the primary growth lever going forward will be increasing utilization and ARPAC from existing customers, rather than just adding new active cards, and recent limit increases were targeted at this existing base.

Pedro Leduc from Itaú BBA questioned the decline in the risk-adjusted NIM over recent quarters, asking when it might stabilize. He noted surprise at the higher cost of risk in Q1, given the company's more selective underwriting in the preceding quarters, and sought to reconcile these factors.

Answer

CFO Guilherme Marques do Lago attributed the 130-basis-point drop in risk-adjusted NIM primarily to two factors: approximately 75% was due to typical Q1 seasonality in credit loss allowances (CLA), and the remaining 25% resulted from strategic investments in building the deposit bases in Mexico and Colombia. He emphasized that Brazil's standalone operations remain highly profitable and serve as a preview for the long-term potential of the newer markets.

Pedro Leduc asked if the regulatory cap on credit cards or the renegotiated loan book impacted the NII slowdown, and questioned how the risk-adjusted NIM could recover given the sticky, compounding effect of a growing secured loan portfolio.

Answer

CFO Guilherme Marques do Lago did not directly address the regulatory cap but focused on other drivers. He noted that FX movements created complexity in the NIM calculation. He argued that growing the secured portfolio should lead to NIM expansion, not dilution, because it shifts funds from low-yield treasury bonds to higher-yielding credit assets, thereby increasing the overall loan-to-deposit ratio and expanding margins, all else being equal.

Pedro Leduc of Itaú BBA requested more detail on the credit strategy's geographic and product diversification and the sustainability of its growth. He also asked about the specific opportunities Vinci Partners is pursuing in Argentina.

Answer

CEO Alessandro Horta described the credit business as a key growth avenue with a widespread geographic strategy across Latin America. He highlighted successful dollar-denominated regional funds and local strategies in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru, with near-term plans for Mexico. Regarding Argentina, he noted the local business is mainly credit and fixed income, and the firm is optimistic about future inflows due to improving macroeconomic sentiment.

Pedro Leduc inquired about Vinci Partners' long-term ambitions for the newly acquired Lacan forestry vertical, specifically regarding assets under management (AUM), geographic expansion, and potential sub-products. He also asked for clarification on the recent increase in personnel and other G&A expenses.

Answer

CEO Alessandro Horta explained that Vinci is enthusiastic about Lacan, seeing potential to reach approximately $1 billion in AUM for the vertical, enhanced by carbon market opportunities. While the initial focus is Brazil, regional expansion is a future possibility. Private Equity Chairman and Head of IR Bruno Zaremba addressed expenses, attributing the rise primarily to the integration of the MAV acquisition and standard inflationary adjustments to salaries and health plan costs.

Pedro Leduc requested more details on the PIX Finance product's adoption and its role in the portfolio, and also asked about the company's overall credit appetite given the mixed macroeconomic signals.

Answer

SVP Alexandre Riccio de Oliveira described PIX Finance as an add-on product with good delinquency behavior. CFO Santiago Horacio Stel stated that Inter's credit appetite is 'as high as it's ever been,' as its diversified, collateral-heavy portfolio provides resilience against macro shifts, creating an opportunity to accelerate growth and increase credit penetration.

Pedro Leduc asked why credit card interest income fell during the quarter despite a stable portfolio mix and whether this was due to a rate-lowering strategy. He also asked for clarification on a BRL 39 million line item for 'gains of capital or others'.

Answer

Executive Alexandre De Oliveira confirmed the drop in interest income was a deliberate, short-term effect of a new strategy to offer lower rates on installment plans, incentivizing customers to move from higher-risk revolving credit. Executive Santiago Stel clarified the BRL 39 million gain was a non-cash item resulting from the final purchase price allocation study for the Inter Pag acquisition.

Pedro Leduc asked for an update on credit card cohort performance, including delinquency and interest-bearing trends, and whether the company is comfortable accelerating growth. He also requested an update on the international operations, particularly in the U.S., regarding size, profitability, and broader ambitions.

Answer

Executive Alexandre De Oliveira stated that new credit card cohorts are performing well with low delinquency, and the company is still targeting about 30% of its portfolio in credit cards by 2027. Executive João Vitor Nazareth Teixeira de Souza added that the global expansion is going 'really, really well,' with 10% of clients using the Global Account. He mentioned plans for a U.S. credit card in early 2025 and exploring other geographies via an asset-light, bank-as-a-service model.

Pedro Leduc inquired about the initial performance and learnings from the new private payroll product and the key drivers behind the net interest margin (NIM) trajectory, seeking to understand the potential for continued expansion.

Answer

Executive João Vitor Nazareth Teixeira de Souza expressed strong optimism for the private payroll product, describing it as a perfect fit for the 'Inter by Design' model with significant pent-up demand, though he noted there was no material impact in Q1. Executive Santiago Stel detailed that NIM expansion is a result of a multi-year capital allocation strategy, driven by an improving credit mix towards higher-yield secured products, repricing of legacy loan portfolios, and better yields on the investment portfolio.

Pedro LeDuc from Itau BBA asked for clarification on the significant increase in the 'other' operating expenses line and questioned why the guidance for NII net of provisions was not raised despite strong performance.

Answer

Executive Cassiano explained that the 'other' expenses line is accommodating costs related to the 'Change the Bank' transformation initiatives. IRO Andre Garvalho added that overall operating expenses grew in line with inflation, demonstrating cost control despite heavy investment. Regarding guidance, management stated that while performance is at the top of the range, they remain cautious for the second half of the year, prioritizing risk-adjusted returns over pure NII growth.

Questioned the significant increase in operating expenses coming from the 'other' line item and asked for the rationale behind maintaining the NII (Net Interest Income) net of provisions guidance despite strong performance.

Answer

The 'other' expense line is accommodating costs related to the 'Change the Bank' transformation initiatives. Overall OpEx growth is considered under control at 5.8%, in line with inflation. The NII guidance was maintained out of caution; while performance is at the top of the range, the focus remains on the bottom-line risk-adjusted return rather than just the NII margin itself.

Pedro Leduc sought clarification on analyzing Loan Loss Provisions (LLP) and NPL formation following the implementation of Resolution 4966, noting that traditional metrics like 15-90 day NPLs were no longer being reported in the same way.

Answer

Executive Cassiano Scarpelli explained that under the new resolution, the focus must shift to Stage 3 assets, which is a broader concept than the previous over-90-day NPL metric. An executive further clarified that the key metric to monitor is the coverage ratio of expected loss over Stage 3 assets, which stood at a healthy 109% in Q1. They stressed that the bank's write-off period remains consistent, allowing for apple-to-apples comparisons.

Pedro Leduc requested a breakdown of the drivers behind the client NII spread increase, suspecting a significant funding mix component, and asked if rising health insurance provisions signal 'pent-up profit'.

Answer

IRO Andre Carvalho detailed three drivers for client NII: portfolio growth, a moderate inflection in spreads, and more efficient liability management lowering funding costs. Regarding insurance, Executive Ivan Gontijo explained that the growth in technical provisions reflects portfolio expansion and financial discipline, placing the unit in a 'comfortable position' but did not confirm it as pent-up profit.

Pedro Leduc of Itau BBA requested a more detailed breakdown of the drivers behind the strong client NII growth, particularly the contribution from funding mix versus asset spread. He also asked if the increase in health insurance technical provisions could signal a 'pent-up profit' for the second half of the year.

Answer

IRO Andre Carvalho explained that the client NII recovery was driven by three factors: portfolio volume growth, a moderate inflection in spreads, and more efficient liability management that lowered funding costs. Regarding insurance, Executive Ivan Gontijo attributed the provision growth to portfolio expansion and operational efficiency, stating it provides a comfortable position but did not confirm it as 'pent-up profit'.

Inquired about the increase in SG&A expenses, the pace of reinvestment, and its impact on the net income guidance. Also asked about the company's comfort level with originating more working capital loans for merchants.

Answer

The company stated that SG&A investments in marketing and personnel made in H1 are expected to stabilize in H2. The modest net income revision balances these investments and higher interest rate costs against lower D&A. Regarding credit, the company is in the early stages with working capital loans but sees successful initial tests and expects faster growth in the coming quarters.

Asked for clarification on the Net Interest Income (NII) trajectory, particularly the client NII, considering the portfolio mix, funding costs, and how the first quarter's performance aligns with the full-year guidance.

Answer

The bank explained that the Q1 NII reflects a mix adjustment and faster repricing of liabilities than assets. With over 80% of funding at floating rates, their Net Interest Margin (NIM) is well-protected. As the loan portfolio is repriced throughout the year, they expect to maintain a healthy margin. They are comfortable with the full-year guidance and the expected 'soft landing' for NII.

Asked about the additional provision for Lojas Americanas, questioning the potential for recovery or reversal if a solution is found soon. He also had a technical question about the provisions guidance, asking if it was expected to decrease in the fourth quarter to meet the middle of the range.

Answer

The decision to fully provision the Lojas Americanas case was driven by delays in the reorganization process and regulatory requirements. They expect the process to conclude in Q1 2024, which could lead to amortization of the debt and some revenue recognition then. Regarding guidance, they are not adjusting it and will work to deliver results towards the high end of the range, not the middle.