Pedro Leduc

Pedro Leduc asked if the fourth quarter of 2025's Net Interest Margin (NIM) is a good starting point for building risk-adjusted NIMs for 2026, and what key drivers should be considered for this line in the coming year.

Answer

Jorge Scarinci (CFO) confirmed that Q4 2025 is a reasonable starting point for NIM. He anticipated slight pressure on rates and margins, forecasting NIM around 20% for 2026, but noted this would be partially offset by a slightly lower cost of risk compared to 2025.

Pedro Leduc asked for insights into Banco Macro's risk-adjusted Net Interest Margins (NIMs) for 2026, inquiring if the Q4 2025 NIM serves as a good starting point and what key drivers to monitor for this metric in 2025-2026.

Answer

Jorge Scarinci, CFO of Banco Macro, confirmed that Q4 2025 NIM is a reasonable starting point. He anticipates slight pressure on rates and margins, expecting NIMs to be around 20% for 2026, compared to slightly above 20% in 2025. However, he noted that a slightly lower cost of risk in 2026 compared to 2025 would partially offset this, leading to an overall slight compression on risk-adjusted NIMs.

Pedro Leduc asked about the outlook for Net Interest Margins (NIMs), specifically if Q4 NIMs would revert to Q2 levels and if Net Interest Income (NII) growth in 2026 would exceed the 35% real loan book growth. He also questioned why Banco Macro expects NPLs to peak in Q4, earlier than some peers, and what measures were taken to control this.

Answer

IR Nicolás Torres projected Q4 NIMs to be similar to Q2 levels (23.5%), with 2026 NIMs around 20%. He anticipated NII growth slightly above the 35% real loan growth. Regarding NPLs, he stated a Q4 peak is expected due to restrictive credit measures implemented since Q1/Q2 2025 and stabilizing real interest rates. He noted that with significant loan growth, NPL ratios might normalize to the mid-2s.

Pedro Leduc asked about the expected trajectory of Net Interest Margins (NIMs) for Q4 2025 and 2026, whether Net Interest Income (NII) would outpace loan growth, and the specific measures Banco Macro implemented to control NPLs, given its more optimistic peak forecast.

Answer

IR Nicolás Torres anticipated Q4 2025 NIMs to return to Q2 levels (23.5%) and average around 20% for 2026, with NII growing slightly above the 35% real loan growth. He explained that Banco Macro became more restrictive on consumer credit lines since Q1/Q2 2025, and positive real interest rates are expected to normalize portfolio behavior, with past due loans potentially settling in the mid-2s given significant real loan growth.

Pedro Leduc asked about the expected efficiency trajectory for 2026, given the anticipated upward pressure from investments, and sought clarification on the drivers for revenue, including funding costs and portfolio evolution, especially with Nu's current high ROE.

Answer

Guilherme Lago, Chief Financial Officer, confirmed that Nu expects upward pressure on the efficiency ratio in the next 4-6 quarters due to three deliberate investment categories. First, the return-to-office policy starting July 1, 2026, will increase OpEx by 80-100 basis points for office preparation. Second, significant investments in AI and new technologies will incur short-term costs for talent, R&D, and GPUs, expected to yield medium-term gains. Third, globalization efforts to lay foundations beyond Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia will involve substantial non-capitalized expenses in 2026, aimed at future revenue and margin collection.

Pedro Leduc asked about the efficiency ratio trajectory for 2026, specifically regarding potential pressures, and sought clarification on revenue drivers like funding costs and portfolio growth, given Nu's 35% ROE.

Answer

Guilherme Lago, Chief Financial Officer of Nu Holdings, indicated that the efficiency ratio might experience upward pressure in the short term (next 4-6 quarters) due to three deliberate investment categories. These include preparing offices for a return-to-office policy (expected to increase the ratio by 80-100 basis points), investments in AI and new technologies (talent, R&D, GPUs), and laying the operational groundwork for globalization beyond Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. He emphasized that these are short-term costs for long-term gains, and the structural drivers of operating leverage remain unchanged for the medium term.

Pedro Leduc of Itaú BBA asked for clarification on why the number of clients using PIX financing transactionally and the number of active credit cards both fell slightly, despite initiatives to increase credit limits.

Answer

CFO Guilherme Lago addressed both points. He stated that despite minor quarterly fluctuations, the PIX financing portfolio continues to grow and has been a remarkable success. Regarding active cards, he explained that the primary growth lever going forward will be increasing utilization and ARPAC from existing customers, rather than just adding new active cards, and recent limit increases were targeted at this existing base.

Pedro Leduc from Itaú BBA questioned the decline in the risk-adjusted NIM over recent quarters, asking when it might stabilize. He noted surprise at the higher cost of risk in Q1, given the company's more selective underwriting in the preceding quarters, and sought to reconcile these factors.

Answer

CFO Guilherme Marques do Lago attributed the 130-basis-point drop in risk-adjusted NIM primarily to two factors: approximately 75% was due to typical Q1 seasonality in credit loss allowances (CLA), and the remaining 25% resulted from strategic investments in building the deposit bases in Mexico and Colombia. He emphasized that Brazil's standalone operations remain highly profitable and serve as a preview for the long-term potential of the newer markets.

Pedro Leduc asked if the regulatory cap on credit cards or the renegotiated loan book impacted the NII slowdown, and questioned how the risk-adjusted NIM could recover given the sticky, compounding effect of a growing secured loan portfolio.

Answer

CFO Guilherme Marques do Lago did not directly address the regulatory cap but focused on other drivers. He noted that FX movements created complexity in the NIM calculation. He argued that growing the secured portfolio should lead to NIM expansion, not dilution, because it shifts funds from low-yield treasury bonds to higher-yielding credit assets, thereby increasing the overall loan-to-deposit ratio and expanding margins, all else being equal.

Pedro Leduc asked about XP's SG&A growth (8% for the full year) and the priorities for 2026 investments, seeking to understand the challenges being addressed. He also questioned how a stable efficiency ratio for 2026 could be reconciled with projected high-teens revenue growth, and if the revenue growth figures exclude accounting changes from structured operations.

Answer

CFO Victor Mansur outlined key investment priorities for 2026, including advisory expansion, technology (AI, CRM for client relationship management and advisor productivity), and the international and PME platforms. He stated that the efficiency ratio is expected to remain stable, aligning with the revenue guidance. Mansur also clarified that while 2025 restructuring led to a BRL 500 million revenue shift to net interest margin, 2026 will see a mix of effects from ongoing restructuring, but the overall revenue growth targets remain achievable.

Pedro Leduc asked about XP's SG&A growth (8% for the full year) and the priorities for 2026 investments, seeking to understand the challenges being addressed. He also asked for clarification on how stable efficiency for 2026 reconciles with projected high-teens revenue growth, and if the revenue guidance excludes accounting changes from structured operations.

Answer

Victor Mansur, CFO of XP, outlined main investments for 2026: advisory expansion, technology (AI for CRM, advisor productivity, account load, NPS), and international/PME platforms (cash accounts, bank accounts, company products). He confirmed that the efficiency ratio is expected to remain stable, aligning with the revenue guidance. Mansur also clarified that while 2025 saw a BRL 500 million revenue reduction due to restructuring (shifting companies to the bank and corporate debt to banking debt), 2026's revenue projections account for a mix of such effects and are expected to deliver the stated numbers.

Pedro Leduc from Itaú BBA asked for more detail on the quarter-over-quarter gross margin expansion, seeking to understand the key drivers and how to think about the trend for the second half of the year.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Victor Mansur identified the main drivers of the margin expansion as lower expected credit losses and a normalization of sales taxes, which were higher than average previously. He also mentioned that the channel mix, with a growing internal sales force, contributed to the improvement. He suggested that the last-twelve-months margin trend is a reasonable expectation for the remainder of the year.

Pedro Leduc of Itau BBA asked for context on the quarterly decline in take rates, considering seasonality and the shift in remuneration models, and questioned whether the lower SG&A expenses were sustainable or a result of seasonal factors.

Answer

CFO Victor Mansur attributed the lower SG&A partly to seasonality in performance-based compensation but reiterated a commitment to overall efficiency. Regarding take rates, he noted Q4 was unusually high and expects a recovery from Q1 levels. CEO Thiago Maffra added that the growing fee-based model (projected to reach BRL 100 billion) lowers the take rate but increases share-of-wallet, resulting in a neutral revenue impact.

Pedro Leduc asked for a deeper understanding of Inter&Co's private payroll loan growth, including its origin (channels, ticket sizes, rate ranges), expectations for the origination pace in 2026, and the NPL ratio for this product. He inquired if the high single-digit/10% NPL level was seen in Q1 or Q4, which harvests it affected, and if any adjustments were being made.

Answer

Brazil CEO Alexandre Riccio de Oliveira expressed satisfaction with the private payroll loan execution in 2025, reaching BRL 2 billion in portfolio with 500,000 clients, an average ticket of BRL 4,000, and stable interest rates around 3.7% for 20 installments. He noted a 5% market share with room to grow, pending further Dataprev developments. The product brings inactive clients back to active status, with RPAC three times the company average and 20% higher cross-selling. Distribution channels are evolving, with Inter's app now accounting for 50% of originations, expected to grow further, and conversational channels (WhatsApp) launching in Q1. Regarding delinquency, he stated that while initially planned for up to 15%, it's converging to higher than 10% but lower than 15%. He expects NPL reduction and increased market volumes with the implementation of original collection solutions.

Pedro Leduc inquired about the growth drivers for Inter&Co's BRL 1.9 billion private payroll loan portfolio, asking about changes in channels, ticket sizes, rate ranges, and the expected origination pace for 2026. He also asked for clarification on the high single-digit to 10% NPL ratio mentioned for earlier harvests and if any adjustments are being made.

Answer

Brazil CEO Alexandre Riccio de Oliveira expressed satisfaction with the BRL 2 billion private payroll portfolio and 500,000 clients, with an average ticket of BRL 4,000 and stable interest rates around 3.7% over 20 installments. He noted a 5% market share with room to grow, contingent on Dataprev's product maturity. The product brings inactive clients back to active, with RPAC three times the company average and 20% higher cross-selling. Distribution channels are evolving from CTPS app dominance to a 50/50 split with Inter's own app, with conversational channels (WhatsApp) launching in Q1. Delinquency is expected to converge to higher than 10% (lower than the initially planned 15%), with future reductions dependent on Dataprev's collection solutions.

Pedro Leduc requested more details on the PIX Finance product's adoption and its role in the portfolio, and also asked about the company's overall credit appetite given the mixed macroeconomic signals.

Answer

SVP Alexandre Riccio de Oliveira described PIX Finance as an add-on product with good delinquency behavior. CFO Santiago Horacio Stel stated that Inter's credit appetite is 'as high as it's ever been,' as its diversified, collateral-heavy portfolio provides resilience against macro shifts, creating an opportunity to accelerate growth and increase credit penetration.

Pedro Leduc asked why credit card interest income fell during the quarter despite a stable portfolio mix and whether this was due to a rate-lowering strategy. He also asked for clarification on a BRL 39 million line item for 'gains of capital or others'.

Answer

Executive Alexandre De Oliveira confirmed the drop in interest income was a deliberate, short-term effect of a new strategy to offer lower rates on installment plans, incentivizing customers to move from higher-risk revolving credit. Executive Santiago Stel clarified the BRL 39 million gain was a non-cash item resulting from the final purchase price allocation study for the Inter Pag acquisition.

Pedro Leduc asked for an update on credit card cohort performance, including delinquency and interest-bearing trends, and whether the company is comfortable accelerating growth. He also requested an update on the international operations, particularly in the U.S., regarding size, profitability, and broader ambitions.

Answer

Executive Alexandre De Oliveira stated that new credit card cohorts are performing well with low delinquency, and the company is still targeting about 30% of its portfolio in credit cards by 2027. Executive João Vitor Nazareth Teixeira de Souza added that the global expansion is going 'really, really well,' with 10% of clients using the Global Account. He mentioned plans for a U.S. credit card in early 2025 and exploring other geographies via an asset-light, bank-as-a-service model.

Pedro Leduc inquired about the initial performance and learnings from the new private payroll product and the key drivers behind the net interest margin (NIM) trajectory, seeking to understand the potential for continued expansion.

Answer

Executive João Vitor Nazareth Teixeira de Souza expressed strong optimism for the private payroll product, describing it as a perfect fit for the 'Inter by Design' model with significant pent-up demand, though he noted there was no material impact in Q1. Executive Santiago Stel detailed that NIM expansion is a result of a multi-year capital allocation strategy, driven by an improving credit mix towards higher-yield secured products, repricing of legacy loan portfolios, and better yields on the investment portfolio.

Pedro Leduc asked about the underlying business trends, specifically the NII guidance, LLP, portfolio mix, spread levels, and overall credit quality expectations for the upcoming year.

Answer

CEO Marcelo de Araújo Noronha and EVP and CFO Cassiano Scarpelli explained that NII remains focused on standard, with secured products as the main lever. They highlighted the quality of the credit BU, maintained average rates, and LLP growing in line with operations, emphasizing risk-adjusted returns and the role of the new pricing area. They noted opportunities in payroll loans (especially private), SME growth, and secure lines, with credit quality under control. NII growth slightly above portfolio is attributed to mix and wholesale bank portfolio turnover.

Pedro Leduc from Itaú BBA inquired about the underlying business trends influencing NII guidance and LLP, specifically regarding portfolio mix, spread, and credit quality.

Answer

CFO Cassiano Scarpelli and CEO Marcelo de Araújo Noronha explained that NII remains focused on secured products and risk-adjusted returns, with opportunities in payroll loans (especially private side) and secured lines. They emphasized hyper-customized, risk-adjusted pricing and strong credit quality control, noting no deviations in credit quality.

Pedro LeDuc from Itau BBA asked for clarification on the significant increase in the 'other' operating expenses line and questioned why the guidance for NII net of provisions was not raised despite strong performance.

Answer

Executive Cassiano explained that the 'other' expenses line is accommodating costs related to the 'Change the Bank' transformation initiatives. IRO Andre Garvalho added that overall operating expenses grew in line with inflation, demonstrating cost control despite heavy investment. Regarding guidance, management stated that while performance is at the top of the range, they remain cautious for the second half of the year, prioritizing risk-adjusted returns over pure NII growth.

Questioned the significant increase in operating expenses coming from the 'other' line item and asked for the rationale behind maintaining the NII (Net Interest Income) net of provisions guidance despite strong performance.

Answer

The 'other' expense line is accommodating costs related to the 'Change the Bank' transformation initiatives. Overall OpEx growth is considered under control at 5.8%, in line with inflation. The NII guidance was maintained out of caution; while performance is at the top of the range, the focus remains on the bottom-line risk-adjusted return rather than just the NII margin itself.

Pedro Leduc sought clarification on analyzing Loan Loss Provisions (LLP) and NPL formation following the implementation of Resolution 4966, noting that traditional metrics like 15-90 day NPLs were no longer being reported in the same way.

Answer

Executive Cassiano Scarpelli explained that under the new resolution, the focus must shift to Stage 3 assets, which is a broader concept than the previous over-90-day NPL metric. An executive further clarified that the key metric to monitor is the coverage ratio of expected loss over Stage 3 assets, which stood at a healthy 109% in Q1. They stressed that the bank's write-off period remains consistent, allowing for apple-to-apples comparisons.

Pedro Leduc requested a breakdown of the drivers behind the client NII spread increase, suspecting a significant funding mix component, and asked if rising health insurance provisions signal 'pent-up profit'.

Answer

IRO Andre Carvalho detailed three drivers for client NII: portfolio growth, a moderate inflection in spreads, and more efficient liability management lowering funding costs. Regarding insurance, Executive Ivan Gontijo explained that the growth in technical provisions reflects portfolio expansion and financial discipline, placing the unit in a 'comfortable position' but did not confirm it as pent-up profit.

Pedro Leduc of Itau BBA requested a more detailed breakdown of the drivers behind the strong client NII growth, particularly the contribution from funding mix versus asset spread. He also asked if the increase in health insurance technical provisions could signal a 'pent-up profit' for the second half of the year.

Answer

IRO Andre Carvalho explained that the client NII recovery was driven by three factors: portfolio volume growth, a moderate inflection in spreads, and more efficient liability management that lowered funding costs. Regarding insurance, Executive Ivan Gontijo attributed the provision growth to portfolio expansion and operational efficiency, stating it provides a comfortable position but did not confirm it as 'pent-up profit'.

Pedro Leduc inquired about the BRL 5 billion cost of risk, asking if the Q3 reduction was due to further write-off anticipations or a one-time Q2 effect, and what to expect going forward. He also asked about the slight drop in Stage 2 and 3 coverage, questioning if it was driven by mix changes or expected loss perception.

Answer

CFO Gustavo Alejo confirmed no changes in policy or management regarding loss anticipation or coverage criteria, stating the Q2 anticipation was a one-off. He clarified that coverage results reflect loan originations, mix, and performance. CEO Mario Leão added that the bank's strategy since last year involves rigorous renegotiation policies (requiring a cash component) and proactive portfolio purging to de-risk and focus on better-performing new cohorts, which may lead to further loss anticipations.

Pedro Leduc inquired about the cost of risk, asking if there were any changes in the timeline or one-off effects in Q3 2025, following the anticipated write-offs in Q2. He also sought clarification on the slight drop in stage two and three coverage, questioning if it was driven by mix or perception of expected loss.

Answer

CFO Gustavo Alejo clarified that there were no changes in policy or management criteria in Q3 2025, and the Q2 write-off was a one-time anticipation of loss. He stated that coverage changes reflected loan originations, mix, and performance. CEO Mario Leão added that the bank's strategy since last year has been to renegotiate past-due loans only with a cash component, and they would continue to anticipate losses to de-risk the portfolio, focusing on new, better-performing cohorts.

Pedro Leduc from Itau BBA asked for details on the 15-90 day NPL increase, specifically the impact from government-guaranteed loans. He also inquired about the sustainability of the strong expense control performance.

Answer

VP & IR Gustavo Alejo Viviani confirmed that government-guaranteed loans, which have longer recognition periods, contributed to the 15-90 day NPL increase but are not a concern due to the underlying collateral. CEO Mario Roberto Opice Leão added that the strong expense performance is part of a multi-year efficiency and transformation agenda that will continue through 2026-2027, suggesting the gains are sustainable.

Pedro Leduc requested clarification on the term 'stabilize' regarding NPLs and asked about the outlook for financial margins in the second half of the year, noting the Q2 increase and considering factors like high-rate government bonds.

Answer

CFO Gonzalo Fernández Covaro clarified that NPLs are expected to rise slightly in Q3 before stabilizing by quarter-end. He warned that Q3 margins will see significant deterioration due to a sharp increase in short-term funding costs from tighter monetary policy. He anticipates margins could recover to Q2 levels sometime in Q4, post-elections, but the timing is uncertain.

Pedro Leduc from Itaú BBA asked if the bank would shift its loan growth focus from retail to corporate given rising NPLs, and questioned the path to achieving double-digit ROE by year-end with low provision coverage.

Answer

CFO Carmen Arroyo stated that while consumer loan growth might slow due to system-wide NPLs, credit card, SME, and corporate loan growth will remain strong, resulting in only a slight change to the portfolio mix. She explained the path to the target ROE is supported by strong performance in fees, effective expense control, and a stable Net Interest Margin, as the bank's balance sheet is well-matched against interest rate volatility.

Pedro Leduc of Itaú BBA inquired about a potential shift in loan growth from retail to corporate due to rising NPLs, and asked for a reconciliation of how the bank plans to achieve its double-digit ROE target by year-end given current profitability and low provision coverage.

Answer

CFO Carmen Arroyo acknowledged a deceleration in consumer loans but noted that credit card growth remains high, and the overall loan mix is not expected to change significantly. She explained that the path to the target ROE is supported by strong performance in fees and commissions, disciplined expense control, and a stable Net Interest Margin, which should mitigate the impact of rising NPLs.

Pedro Leduc from Itaú BBA inquired about a potential shift in loan growth from retail to corporate due to rising NPLs and asked how the bank will bridge from its current ROE to the guided double-digit ROE, especially with seemingly low provision coverage.

Answer

CFO Carmen Arroyo acknowledged a potential slowdown in consumer loans due to system-wide NPL trends but noted that credit card growth remains high, and SME and corporate lending are expected to maintain their growth pace. To reach the ROE target, she highlighted strong performance in fees and commissions, strict expense control, and a stable Net Interest Margin (NIM), as the bank's balance sheet is well-matched, limiting the negative impact of interest rate volatility.

Pedro Leduc of Itaú BBA asked about a potential shift in loan growth from retail to corporate due to rising NPLs and sought a reconciliation for achieving the guided double-digit ROE given current profitability and low provision coverage.

Answer

CFO Carmen Arroyo acknowledged a potential slowdown in consumer loans but expects credit card, SME, and commercial loan growth to remain strong, resulting in only a slight mix change. She explained that the path to the target ROE is supported by strong performance in fees and commissions, rigorous expense control, and a stable Net Interest Margin (NIM) due to a well-matched balance sheet.

Pedro Leduc of Itaú BBA requested more detail on the credit strategy's geographic and product diversification and the sustainability of its growth. He also asked about the specific opportunities Vinci Partners is pursuing in Argentina.

Answer

CEO Alessandro Horta described the credit business as a key growth avenue with a widespread geographic strategy across Latin America. He highlighted successful dollar-denominated regional funds and local strategies in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru, with near-term plans for Mexico. Regarding Argentina, he noted the local business is mainly credit and fixed income, and the firm is optimistic about future inflows due to improving macroeconomic sentiment.

Pedro Leduc inquired about Vinci Partners' long-term ambitions for the newly acquired Lacan forestry vertical, specifically regarding assets under management (AUM), geographic expansion, and potential sub-products. He also asked for clarification on the recent increase in personnel and other G&A expenses.

Answer

CEO Alessandro Horta explained that Vinci is enthusiastic about Lacan, seeing potential to reach approximately $1 billion in AUM for the vertical, enhanced by carbon market opportunities. While the initial focus is Brazil, regional expansion is a future possibility. Private Equity Chairman and Head of IR Bruno Zaremba addressed expenses, attributing the rise primarily to the integration of the MAV acquisition and standard inflationary adjustments to salaries and health plan costs.

Inquired about the increase in SG&A expenses, the pace of reinvestment, and its impact on the net income guidance. Also asked about the company's comfort level with originating more working capital loans for merchants.

Answer

The company stated that SG&A investments in marketing and personnel made in H1 are expected to stabilize in H2. The modest net income revision balances these investments and higher interest rate costs against lower D&A. Regarding credit, the company is in the early stages with working capital loans but sees successful initial tests and expects faster growth in the coming quarters.

Asked for clarification on the Net Interest Income (NII) trajectory, particularly the client NII, considering the portfolio mix, funding costs, and how the first quarter's performance aligns with the full-year guidance.

Answer

The bank explained that the Q1 NII reflects a mix adjustment and faster repricing of liabilities than assets. With over 80% of funding at floating rates, their Net Interest Margin (NIM) is well-protected. As the loan portfolio is repriced throughout the year, they expect to maintain a healthy margin. They are comfortable with the full-year guidance and the expected 'soft landing' for NII.

Asked about the additional provision for Lojas Americanas, questioning the potential for recovery or reversal if a solution is found soon. He also had a technical question about the provisions guidance, asking if it was expected to decrease in the fourth quarter to meet the middle of the range.

Answer

The decision to fully provision the Lojas Americanas case was driven by delays in the reorganization process and regulatory requirements. They expect the process to conclude in Q1 2024, which could lead to amortization of the debt and some revenue recognition then. Regarding guidance, they are not adjusting it and will work to deliver results towards the high end of the range, not the middle.