Peter Galbo

Peter Galbo inquired about the potential for Bruce Chung's M&A background to accelerate portfolio reshaping and the company's framework for using proceeds from divestitures. He also asked for guardrails on coffee deflation entering the P&L, given near-term margin improvement and peer recovery timelines.

Answer

CEO Mark Smucker affirmed Bruce Chung's financial acumen and the company's consistent review of its diverse portfolio. CFO Tucker Marshall reiterated historical use of proceeds for debt paydown or share repurchases, noting the path to 3x leverage enables future share repurchases. Mr. Marshall provided a positive outlook for coffee, citing category strength, brand performance, hedging benefits from deflation, and the lapping of tariffs, expecting a mid-20s segment profit margin in Q4.

Peter Galbo inquired about Bruce Chung's M&A background and its potential to accelerate portfolio reshaping, as well as the company's framework for using proceeds from divestitures, including debt paydown and share repurchases. He also asked about the coffee business, near-term margin improvement from green coffee deflation, and the outlook for calendar 2026.

Answer

CEO Mark Smucker highlighted Bruce Chung's financial acumen and reiterated the consistent review of the diverse portfolio for optionality. CFO Tucker Marshall confirmed that historically, divestiture proceeds have been used for debt paydown or share repurchases, and achieving a 3x leverage target by next fiscal year enables considering share repurchases again. Tucker Marshall also stated a positive outlook for the coffee portfolio, anticipating profit and margin improvement due to deflation benefits and lapping tariff impacts, expecting a mid-20s segment profit margin in the current fiscal year's fourth quarter.

Peter Galbo of Bank of America sought clarification on the updated coffee elasticity assumptions and asked whether the projected return to growth for Milk-Bone in the second half is driven by favorable comparisons or an expected increase in actual consumption.

Answer

CFO Tucker Marshall detailed the coffee elasticity, noting that May's pricing performed better than the 0.5 assumption, while August's is held at 0.5 and future pricing will have a greater elasticity factor. CEO Mark Smucker addressed the Milk-Bone question, stating the return to growth is due to a combination of strong comps, continued brand support through advertising and innovation, and tactical pricing, despite a slight decrease in consumer treating frequency.

Peter Galbo sought to clarify the magnitude of pricing actions outside the coffee segment, specifically for Uncrustables and the away-from-home business. He also questioned the confidence in the revised 3% long-term growth rate for Hostess, given the gap to current performance.

Answer

CFO Tucker Marshall clarified that pricing for Uncrustables is in the low-single digits, while the away-from-home business will see high-single-digit pricing. He explained the reduction in the Hostess long-term growth algorithm from 4% to 3% reflects a more conservative outlook for the category's growth.

Peter Galbo inquired about the timing and potential magnitude of future coffee price increases and sought more detail on the drivers behind the Hostess impairment charge, particularly regarding long-term growth and profitability assumptions.

Answer

CEO Mark Smucker indicated that further coffee pricing is expected in the first half of the next fiscal year, timed with when higher-cost green coffee hits inventory. CFO Tucker Marshall linked the Hostess impairment to the significant reduction in the current year's sales outlook from $1.4 billion to $1.2 billion, but reiterated that the company has not walked away from its 4% long-term growth target for the segment.

Peter Galbo inquired about the potential timing and magnitude of future coffee price increases and asked what drove the Hostess impairment charge, questioning if it reflected a change in long-term sales growth or profitability assumptions.

Answer

CEO Mark Smucker indicated that additional coffee pricing is expected in the first half of the next fiscal year as higher-cost inventory is recognized. CFO Tucker Marshall explained the impairment charge was necessitated by recent underperformance, with the full-year Hostess sales outlook dropping from $1.4 billion to $1.2 billion. He stated the company is not abandoning its long-term 4% growth target for the segment but is currently focused on stabilization.

Peter Galbo questioned the reasons behind the volatility in the full-year EPS guidance midpoint and asked about the company's strategy for potential further coffee price increases given rising commodity costs.

Answer

CFO Tucker Marshall attributed the EPS guidance adjustments to an initial reduction in top-line outlook and coffee inflation, followed by an increase due to a strong Q2 gross margin beat. CEO Mark Smucker stated that coffee is a pass-through category and the company will responsibly manage costs and pricing, using all available levers to mitigate consumer impact while navigating the speculative commodity market.

Peter Galbo questioned the volatility in the EPS guidance, which was cut and then raised this fiscal year, and asked about the potential need for additional coffee pricing given rising commodity costs.

Answer

CFO Tucker Marshall explained the initial EPS guidance reduction was due to a lower top-line outlook and coffee inflation, while the recent increase to a $9.90 midpoint was driven by locking in the gross margin beat from Q2. CEO Mark Smucker noted the coffee market is speculative, with Arabica prices at a 10-year high. He affirmed the company will responsibly manage the pass-through category, using all available levers to avoid excessive price increases while passing on cost changes.

Peter Galbo requested more color on the cadence of EBITDA for 2026, specifically the phasing between the first and second halves of the year.

Answer

David Haas, CFO, indicated that the EBITDA phasing would be slightly different from the 50/50 top-line split, leaning more towards a 48% first half and 52% second half. He attributed this to a first-half 'lean-in' on continued investments, such as higher route counts, aimed at stabilizing service and improving OTIF levels. Haas noted that this pattern could change if revenue growth management capabilities come online and allow for greater flexibility.

Peter Galbo from Bank of America requested more clarity on the cadence of EBITDA for the year, specifically seeking help with the phasing of EBITDA, particularly in the first half.

Answer

CFO David Hass indicated that EBITDA phasing would differ slightly from the 50/50 top-line split, leaning towards a 48/52 split (first half/second half). This implies a greater lean-in on investments during the first half, such as higher route counts to stabilize service and improve On-Time In-Full (OTIF). He noted that this pattern could evolve if revenue growth management (RGM) and other capabilities come online, potentially allowing for more flexibility with retail and direct delivery customers.

Peter Galbo from Bank of America sought clarification on the Q2 revenue decline in the direct delivery channel, noting that discrete items seemed to account for most of it, and asked for insights into the outlook for the third quarter.

Answer

CFO David Hass confirmed that of the direct delivery channel's weakness, approximately $10 million was from dispensers and $6 million from the office coffee service wind-down, leaving a residual $13 million decline from integration-related service disruptions. For Q3, Hass anticipates the direct delivery business will see a slight year-over-year decline but improve sequentially, with the retail business showing strength. He expressed confidence in a return to growth in Q4.

Peter Galbo asked for clarification on Dole plc's path to index inclusion, specifically inquiring about key milestones and the timeline following the transition to U.S. domestic issuer filings.

Answer

CFO Jacinta Devine explained that Dole plc's transition to U.S. domestic issuer filings positions them for index inclusion, with plans to target smaller S&P and MSCI indices, specifically the S&P 600. CEO Rory Byrne confirmed their existing inclusion in the Russell Index.

Peter Galbo asked Dole plc to outline the path and key milestones for potential U.S. equity index inclusion, given the company's recent transition to full U.S. domestic issuer filings.

Answer

CFO Jacinta Devine confirmed that Dole's financial statements and disclosures were largely already in domestic issuer format, making the transition a planned step. She expressed optimism about seeking inclusion in smaller S&P and MSCI indices, noting that the company's information now qualifies. CEO Rory Byrne added that Dole is already included in the Russell Index, and the immediate focus is on working with indices to join the S&P 600.

Peter Galbo inquired about the financial impact of tariffs embedded in Dole's $380-$390 million guidance for the current year and the potential flow-through if these tariffs were unwound. He also asked about any implications or issues observed regarding SNAP benefits, particularly for fresh fruits and vegetables, during the first 10 days of the month, and if a resolution could provide a tailwind.

Answer

CEO Rory Byrne clarified that no specific positive or negative financial impact from tariffs was built into the current year's guidance, and any unwinding would likely be a pass-through without direct benefit or detriment to Dole. He reiterated that the industry is not the primary target of tariffs and anticipates a realignment of the tariff approach over time. COO Johan Linden commented on SNAP/government shutdown impacts, noting no real trends but anecdotal reports of slight sales decreases in areas with many government employees, with some consumers potentially shifting to more affordable products like bananas or discount stores. He emphasized Dole's presence across all channels, positioning the company well.

Peter Galbo from Bank of America asked about the specific tariff impact embedded in Dole PLC's $380-$390 million full-year guidance and the potential flow-through if tariffs were unwound. He also inquired about any short-term implications or issues observed regarding SNAP benefits on fresh fruit and vegetable sales in early November.

Answer

CEO Rory Byrne clarified that no specific positive or negative tariff impact was built into the guidance, and any unwinding would likely be a pass-through, not directly benefiting or harming Dole. He reiterated the long-term hope for tariff realignment. COO Johan Linden stated no real trends were observed regarding SNAP implications from government shutdowns, only anecdotal reports of slight sales decreases in government-heavy areas and a potential shift to more affordable products or discount stores, noting Dole's broad channel representation.

Peter Galbo of Bank of America followed up on the topic of tight industry supply, asking for management's line of sight on when supply might normalize beyond Q3. He also inquired about any new progress in discussions with government bodies regarding potential tariff exemptions for products like bananas and pineapples that are not grown domestically in the U.S.

Answer

CEO Rory Byrne responded that while supply disruptions are real and expected to persist into Q4, the industry has a history of self-correcting quickly. He expressed confidence that the company can adjust variables for the coming year to maintain financial performance. On the tariff front, Byrne stated that Dole continues to believe its sector is not the intended target and has heard public statements from the U.S. administration suggesting tropical products will ultimately be exempted, likely as part of future trade deals with source countries.

Peter Galbo focused on the Refreshment Beverage business, asking about the early reads and potential impact of SNAP waiver adjustments in certain states, particularly as large states like Texas and Florida roll into the program, and whether Keurig Dr Pepper's guidance incorporates any disruption on the CSD side.

Answer

Chief Executive Officer Tim Cofer stated that Keurig Dr Pepper is closely monitoring SNAP dynamics, including state-by-state analysis. He noted that changes to category eligibility for SNAP benefits are more likely to shift payment methods rather than significantly alter consumption, as CSDs are prominent in grocery bills for both SNAP and non-SNAP households. He indicated that while meaningful changes in aggregate SNAP benefits could impact purchasing power, it's too early to draw firm conclusions from the states that have already implemented restrictions. He confirmed that some allowance has been baked into the 2026 plans, expecting the overall impact to be manageable, and the company will respond dynamically with affordability options.

Peter Galbo asked about the impact of SNAP waiver adjustments in certain states on the refreshment beverage business, particularly CSDs, and whether the 2026 guidance incorporates any disruption as major states like Texas and Florida implement these changes.

Answer

CEO Timothy Cofer stated that KDP is closely monitoring SNAP dynamics, differentiating between category eligibility changes (which tend to shift payment methods rather than consumption) and magnitude changes (which can impact purchasing power). He noted that CSDs are prominent in grocery bills for both SNAP and non-SNAP households, and recipients often reallocate funds. While mixed signals are observed in states with implemented restrictions, KDP has baked in some allowance into its 2026 plans, expecting the overall impact to be manageable, and will respond dynamically with price pack architecture and promotions.

Peter Galbo focused on the Refreshment Beverage business, asking about the impact of SNAP waiver adjustments in certain states, particularly on CSDs. He also inquired whether KDP's 2026 guidance incorporates any potential disruption from these changes, especially as large states like Texas and Florida begin to implement the waiver program.

Answer

CEO Tim Cofer explained that KDP is closely monitoring SNAP waiver adjustments, distinguishing between category eligibility changes (more likely payment method shifts) and changes in the magnitude of benefits (potentially more impactful). He noted mixed signals from states that have already implemented restrictions, stating that KDP has baked some allowance into its 2026 plans and expects the overall impact to be manageable, with dynamic responses planned if needed.

Peter Galbo asked about the impact of SNAP waiver adjustments in certain states on refreshment beverages, particularly CSDs, and whether the 2026 guidance incorporates any disruption as major states like Texas and Florida roll into the waiver program.

Answer

CEO Timothy Cofer stated that KDP is closely monitoring SNAP dynamics, distinguishing between category eligibility and overall benefit magnitude. He noted that category eligibility changes often shift payment methods rather than consumption, while aggregate benefit changes can impact purchasing power. He confirmed that some allowance for this dynamic is baked into 2026 plans, expecting a manageable overall impact, and KDP will respond dynamically with affordability options.

On behalf of Bryan Spillane, Peter Galbo asked for clarification on the Q1 EPS outperformance, why the full-year guidance was not raised, and the expected cadence of EPS growth for the remainder of the year.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Sudhanshu Priyadarshi explained that a portion of the Q1 beat was driven by a gain from the sale of the company's Vita Coco stake. He stated that this gain provides additional flexibility to manage emerging headwinds like tariffs and consumer softness, which is why the company reaffirmed its full-year guidance rather than raising it. He reiterated the full-year outlook but declined to provide specific quarterly guidance.

Peter Galbo asked for details on the cadence of EBITDA delivery for 2026, considering higher sales in Q1 but increased media investment. He also inquired about raw material inputs, specifically the protein complex (chicken, beef), Freshpet's stance on costs, and any locks for the year.

Answer

CFO John O'Connor expects EBITDA margins to index below implied guidance in Q1 2026 and then build through the year, as media spend is front-loaded and leverage is gained from growing sales. CEO Billy Cyr commented that chicken pricing was locked in Q4 2025 at levels in line with the prior year. He noted that beef continues to be a higher cost and a challenge for the year, with actions being taken through pricing and formulation work to address these costs.

Peter Galbo from Bank of America asked Freshpet for details on the expected cadence of EBITDA delivery for 2026, considering factors like higher Q1 sales and increased media investment. He also inquired about raw material inputs, specifically the current status and outlook for chicken and beef costs, and any hedging or locking strategies for the year.

Answer

CFO John O'Connor indicated that 2026 EBITDA margins are expected to index below implied guidance in Q1 and build through the year, due to front-loaded media spend and increasing leverage from growing sales. CEO Billy Cyr stated that chicken pricing for the bulk of the year was locked in Q4 at levels consistent with the prior year. He highlighted beef as the primary commodity cost challenge, with Freshpet addressing higher beef costs through targeted pricing actions and formulation work.

Peter Galbo requested clarification on a one-point shipment timing shift from Q2 to Q3 and asked for a breakdown of the $100 million CapEx reduction between lower demand versus efficiency gains.

Answer

CFO Todd Cunfer confirmed the shipment shift occurred and was reflected in strong July sales. Regarding the CapEx reduction, he explained it's a combination of both factors. While slower demand allows for the delay of Ennis Phase 3, he stressed that significant operational efficiency gains and new technology are what make it possible, giving them confidence in their existing ~$1.5 billion of installed capacity. CEO Billy Cyr added that yield and throughput improvements are roughly a year ahead of schedule.

Peter Galbo of Bank of America asked for clarification on a one-point shipment timing shift from Q2 to Q3 and requested a breakdown of the $100 million CapEx reduction between lower demand versus efficiency gains.

Answer

CFO Todd Comfort confirmed a shipment shift of $3-4 million from June into July. On CapEx, he explained the reduction is a combination of slower demand and significant efficiency gains. The delay of Ennis Phase 3 is the largest component, made possible by substantial improvements in Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) and new technologies. CEO Billy Cyr added that yield and throughput improvements are roughly a year ahead of schedule.

Peter Galbo asked about the sustainability of the January commodity price rally for chicken, considering consumer spending shifts and competitive protein pricing, and sought clarification on projected depreciation & amortization and SG&A expenses for fiscal year 2026.

Answer

CEO Fabio Sandri attributed strong chicken demand to consumer inflation concerns driving shifts to retail, record price spreads against beef, and increased chicken penetration in foodservice promotions, expecting positive trends for 2026 with limited supply growth. CFO Matt Galvanoni provided 2026 forecasts: D&A around $520 million and SG&A approximately $140 million per quarter.

Peter Galbo asked about the sustainability of the January commodity price rally for chicken, considering tailwinds from competing proteins and potential storm impacts, and how these factors might influence the upcoming seasonally stronger period. He also sought guidance on the projected depreciation and amortization (D&A) for 2026 and the expected SG&A levels for the same year.

Answer

CEO Fabio Sandri highlighted strong chicken demand driven by consumer affordability needs, a 1% decrease in boneless breast prices at retail versus rising competing proteins, and increased chicken menu penetration in food service. He anticipates these trends, coupled with a projected 1% supply growth, will sustain demand. CFO Matthew Galvanoni provided a D&A forecast of approximately $520 million for 2026 and suggested an SG&A run rate of about $140 million per quarter.

Peter Galbo inquired about the profitability drivers in the Mexico segment, the impact of FX, and the outlook for the second half. He also questioned the capital allocation philosophy that led to a second special dividend in one year.

Answer

President & Global CEO Fabio Sandri explained that Mexico's Q2 strength was driven by a strong live market due to supply reductions from smaller, biosecurity-challenged players. He noted that while FX was a headwind on revenue, it benefited imported grain costs. On capital allocation, Sandri stated the philosophy hasn't changed; with M&A multiples high, the company is pursuing organic growth but returned cash to shareholders as the balance sheet became inefficiently under-levered. CFO Matthew Galvanoni added that the FX headwind is expected to neutralize in Q3.

Peter Galbo noted that U.S. results were below Street expectations and asked for a deeper explanation, questioning if grain-based contract pricing had a negative pass-through effect in Q4. He also requested modeling clarifications for 2025 net interest expense, D&A, and SG&A.

Answer

CEO Fabio Sandri explained that Pilgrim's diversified portfolio, with two-thirds in more stable case-ready and small bird segments, mutes some commodity upside. This strategy provides stability and protects the downside, even if it means not fully capturing peak commodity prices. CFO Matthew Galvanoni provided 2025 guidance of $65M-$75M for net interest expense, ~$440M for D&A, and $130M-$135M per quarter for SG&A.

Peter Galbo requested more detail on U.S. price realization, focusing specifically on pricing trends within the Small Bird segment, which is a difficult part of the business to track externally.

Answer

President and CEO Fabio Sandri explained that strong Small Bird pricing is directly linked to significant growth in the retail deli segment. He noted that as consumers seek value, they are substituting away from foodservice to convenient and affordable options like rotisserie chickens, which drives demand for Small Birds in a market with tightening supply.

Peter Galbo asked for more detail on the interaction of price reinvestment for Utz and OTB brands, and how it might impact these competitive parts of the portfolio. He also requested a breakdown of productivity, inflation, and reinvestment within the gross margin cadence and overall EBITDA guidance.

Answer

CEO Howard Friedman highlighted the company's revenue management capabilities and focus on affordability, noting a 1 percentage point investment in price through most of 2025. He expects a more positive contribution from both volume and price in 2026. CFO William Kelley stated that strong productivity performance aims to mitigate inflation, and the EBITDA guide reflects prudence and flexibility for dynamic market conditions.

Peter Galbo asked for more detail on Utz Brands' price reinvestment strategy, specifically how it interacts with the Utz and OTB brands and the potential impact of price cuts on these competitive parts of the portfolio. He also followed up on the EBITDA question, asking for a breakdown of how inflation and reinvestment headwinds, despite $40 million in COGS productivity, affect gross margin cadence and the overall EBITDA guide.

Answer

Howard Friedman, CEO, highlighted investments in revenue management capabilities and a focus on affordability, noting a 1% price investment in 2025 and expecting a more positive contribution from both volume and price in 2026. William Kelley, CFO, explained that productivity helps mitigate inflation (in ingredients, packaging, and labor) and reiterated that the EBITDA guide reflects prudence and flexibility to manage various market outcomes.

Peter Galbo of Bank of America sought clarification on the EPS guidance revision, asking for specifics on below-the-line items like interest expense and depreciation. He also inquired about the underperformance of tortilla chips and pretzels.

Answer

CEO Howard Friedman reiterated that EBITDA is the primary health metric. CFO Bill Kelly detailed that the EPS revision was due to a 3-cent impact, split between higher cash interest from accelerated CapEx borrowing and increased depreciation and amortization from that same capital being deployed faster than historically. Howard Friedman added that the pretzel subcategory was pulled down by softer performance outside the core UTZ brand, while tortilla chips were lapping prior-year merchandising promotions.

Peter Galbo requested clarification on whether historical data would be provided for the new reporting segments. He also asked when the company would fully lap the weakness in its dips and spreads business and sought more detail on the performance drivers for tortilla chips.

Answer

Executive Kevin Powers confirmed that historical net sales data for the new segments would be provided. CEO Howard Friedman added that the headwind from dips and spreads should begin to be lapped in May, with progressive improvement in the back half of the year. He attributed recent tortilla chip weakness to lapping difficult prior-year comparisons and specific assortment choices, not increased competitive pressure.

Peter Galbo inquired if the Q4 exit rate, implied to be around 4%, sets the company up for its long-term algorithm in 2025. He also asked for a reminder of any specific nuances for 2025, such as the Kettle production startup at Kings Mountain and laps on Golden Flake.

Answer

CEO Howard Friedman declined to give 2025 guidance but affirmed the company is delivering on its Investor Day volume share goals. He identified the translation of volume to value as a near-term wildcard due to competitive pricing. For 2025, he confirmed the Kings Mountain facility will add Kettle capacity, and highlighted two other factors: an easier comparison for the C-store business and lapping challenges related to the Zapps brand.

Peter Galbo followed up on the bonus pack's impact, seeking to confirm if the 300 basis point price impact was offset by a similar volume/mix contribution. He also asked about the early reception and distribution progress for Boulder Canyon's new category expansions.

Answer

CFO Ajay Kataria confirmed the bonus pack's impact on price was largely offset in volume/mix. CEO Howard Friedman detailed the success of Boulder Canyon, attributing it to strong consumer reception for its non-seed oil products, distribution gains in traditional channels, and growing velocity. He noted that while new items like Tortilla Chips are still early, other innovations like Canyon Poppers are performing well.

Peter Galbo inquired about the recent change in the company's stance on the spin-off, asking for clarification on what transpired in the last few weeks to cause the pause, and how to interpret this as a temporary versus indefinite postponement.

Answer

CEO Steve Cahillane clarified that while he initially endorsed the spin-off's logic, further exploration revealed significant short-term opportunities to improve the core business. The pause allows full focus on returning to organic growth, preserving future portfolio optimization without a specific end date.

Peter Galbo inquired about the shift in thinking regarding the spin-off, given initial endorsement, and asked for clarification on whether the pause is temporary or more indefinite.

Answer

CEO Steve Cahillane clarified that while he initially endorsed the strategic rationale for the separation, subsequent exploration revealed significant short-term opportunities to improve the core business. He stated that the pause is indefinite, allowing the company to focus all resources on driving organic growth, which will preserve future portfolio optimization optionality.

Peter Galbo inquired about the sizable non-cash impairment charge taken in the quarter, asking for details on whether it was tied to specific brands or related to the contemplation of strategic transactions.

Answer

EVP & Global CFO Andre Maciel explained the $9.3 billion non-cash impairment charge was triggered solely by a sustained decline in the company's stock price, which impacted the carrying value of intangible assets. He confirmed this risk was previously disclosed and does not alter the company's strategic direction.

Peter Galbo asked for more detail on the Q4 mix impact, specifically regarding timing of investments and focus on EMEA and Asia Pacific, and also inquired about the headwind at the equity income line, particularly from the Consolidated shares sale, and its impact on EPS for the year.

Answer

John Murphy, President and CFO, detailed three primary drivers for the Q4 mix impact, each roughly one point: faster growth in lower-margin emerging markets, better performance of lower-margin categories in some developed markets, and timing of marketing investments. He described this as a one-off event. For equity income, the primary driver of the headwind is the loss of equity income from the sale of Coca-Cola Consolidated shares.

Peter Galbo asked for more detail on the Q4 mix impact, specifically regarding timing of investments and commentary on EMEA and Asia Pacific. He also inquired about the headwind to the equity income line, particularly from refranchising, and its EPS impact.

Answer

President and CFO John Murphy clarified that the Q4 negative mix impact was driven by three roughly equal factors: faster-growing lower-margin emerging markets, lower-margin categories outperforming in some developed markets, and timing of marketing investments. He described this as a one-off event. The primary driver of the equity income headwind is the sale of Coca-Cola Consolidated shares towards the end of the year, though he did not quantify the specific EPS hit.

Peter Galbo from Bank of America asked about the EMEA region, highlighting its likely importance in the second half and seeking perspective on the European consumer and the regional outlook.

Answer

Chairman and CEO James Quincey provided a breakdown of the region's strong performance. He noted that Europe saw positive volume growth from a resilient consumer, Africa grew volumes despite tough comparisons, and Eurasia also grew by emphasizing the local nature of the business. He summarized it as a good performance across all three components of the EMEA group.

Peter Galbo inquired about the specific drivers behind Hershey's better-than-expected Q4 gross margin upside, asking for a breakdown between tariffs, cost-saving, and volume de-leverage. He also asked about the impetus for launching the first true brand campaigns for Hershey and Reese's in eight years, and why this timing was chosen.

Answer

SVP and CFO Steve Voskuil attributed the Q4 gross margin upside primarily to strong volumes and lower-than-anticipated tariffs on suppliers' materials, partially offset by LIFO headwinds. CEO Kirk Tanner explained that 2026 is the 'Year of Hershey,' with investments in Reese's, and the 'Your happy place with Hershey' campaign aims to build on consumer connection and relevance, fueling growth. He also mentioned upcoming innovation and a movie celebrating Milton Hershey.

Peter Galbo asked for more detail on the upside in Q4 gross margin, specifically breaking down contributions from tariffs, cost savings, and volume de-leverage. He also inquired about the impetus behind the new 'true campaign' for Hershey and Reese's, the first in eight years, and why this timing was chosen.

Answer

Steve Voskuil (SVP and CFO) attributed the Q4 gross margin upside primarily to lower-than-anticipated tariffs on suppliers' materials and strong volumes, partially offset by LIFO headwinds. Kirk Tanner (President and CEO) explained that 2026 is 'the year of Hershey,' with investments in both brands. The 'your happy place with Hershey' campaign builds on consumer connection, supported by innovation and a movie celebrating Milton Hershey, all aimed at driving growth and relevance.

Peter Galbo asked about pricing dynamics, comparing the U.S. market to a European peer facing price gap issues, and whether similar dynamics could translate to the U.S. He sought clarification on structural factors that differentiate the U.S. market and Hershey's ability to hold pricing as cocoa costs potentially decline. He also inquired about the International segment, noting a loss-making quarter and asking if profitability catch-up is expected in the next couple of quarters.

Answer

Senior Vice President and CFO Steve Voskuil clarified that the U.S. and European markets are different, with the U.S. CMG category being resilient and rational, showing no major price gaps of concern. He expects this rationality to continue. Regarding International, he explained it's a challenging, cocoa-driven market with more severe elasticity impacts despite aggressive pricing. While currently not profitable, Hershey is growing share in core markets and remains optimistic about eventual return to profitability, despite the intense cocoa challenges.

Peter Galbo asked about pricing dynamics, comparing the U.S. market to Europe where a peer discussed price gap issues, and whether structural factors make the U.S. market different, alleviating fears about pricing sustainability. He also inquired about the International segment, noting a loss-making quarter and asking about expectations for profitability in Q4 and subsequent quarters.

Answer

SVP and CFO Steve Voskuil clarified that the U.S. and European markets are different, with the U.S. CMG category being resilient and rational, showing no major price gaps of concern. He expects this rationality to continue. Regarding International, he explained it's challenging due to cocoa intensity and more severe elasticity impacts, but despite current losses, the company is optimistic about share growth (e.g., Brazil) and eventual return to profitability, needing to work through cocoa challenges more intensely.

Peter Galbo requested an update on discussions regarding a potential cocoa tariff exemption and asked about the dynamics of Halloween shipments being pulled forward into Q2, as well as the overall outlook for the season.

Answer

Chairman, President & CEO Michele Buck expressed increased optimism about a cocoa tariff exemption, noting that the administration seems to understand the sourcing constraints and has made public comments to that effect. Regarding Halloween, she stated the shipment shift is not uncommon and that retailers are excited to set the category early, partly driven by the 'Summerween' social media trend, leading to a strong outlook for the season.

Peter Galbo requested an update on discussions regarding a potential tariff exemption for cocoa and asked about the dynamics of the Halloween shipment pull-forward from Q3 to Q2 and the overall outlook for the season.

Answer

Chairman, President & CEO Michele Buck expressed increased optimism for a tariff exemption, citing the administration's understanding that cocoa is sourced externally. Regarding Halloween, she stated the shipment timing shift is not uncommon and that retailers are planning for another strong season, partly driven by social media trends like 'summerween'.

Peter Galbo of Bank of America requested an update on discussions for a potential tariff exemption on cocoa. He also asked about the Halloween shipment pull-forward from Q3 to Q2 and the drivers of the optimistic outlook for the season.

Answer

Chairman, President & CEO Michele Buck expressed increased optimism for a tariff exemption, citing public comments from government officials who understand the sourcing constraints of cocoa. Regarding Halloween, she stated the shipment shift is not uncommon and that retailers are excited to set the category early, partly driven by social media trends like 'Summerween'.

Peter Galbo inquired about the internal rationale for excluding the full-year tariff impact from guidance and asked for clarity on revenue phasing for the second half of the year.

Answer

SVP and CFO Steve Voskuil explained the decision was based on transparency amid high uncertainty and unfinalized mitigation plans, with an update planned for mid-year. Executive Anoori Naughton clarified that H2 revenue growth is expected to be in line with the long-term 2% to 4% target.

Peter Galbo inquired about the cost phasing of cocoa through 2026, specifically the impact of inventory accounting, and how to think about the phasing of potential price investments in chocolate over the year. He also sought perspective on the North American market's operating environment, volume trends, the K-shaped economy debate, and future pricing actions, especially in light of a peer's recent price cuts.

Answer

COO and CFO Luca Zaramella clarified that the 2026 plan aims for a neutral to slightly positive balance between cost and pricing in chocolate, with flat chocolate pricing expected. He detailed a one-time $500 million inventory adjustment in Q1 2026 due to the dislocation of costs. He noted higher costs in the first half versus the second half, with A&C investments evenly spaced. Chairman and CEO Dirk Van de Put described the North American consumer as having low confidence, leading to value-seeking behavior and shifts to channels like value club and online. He explained Mondelēz's strategy to invest more in awareness, use PPA for affordability, expand in underindexed channels, and push premium/protein brands. Van de Put stated that aggressive promotions in H1 2025 didn't yield returns, leading to a shift in H2, and that the company doesn't plan to decrease prices to the magnitude of some competitors.

Peter Galbo inquired about the cost phasing of cocoa through 2026, the phasing of potential price investments in chocolate, and the outlook for the North American market, including consumer confidence and pricing strategies.

Answer

Luca Zaramella, COO and CFO, clarified that chocolate pricing will remain flat in 2026, aiming for a neutral to slightly positive price-cost balance, despite a material profit hit in 2025. He detailed a $500 million one-time inventory adjustment in Q1 2026 due to cost dislocation and anticipated sequential improvements in volume, revenue, and EBIT through the year. Dirk Van de Put, Chairman and CEO, described low consumer confidence in North America, leading to value-seeking behavior and soft biscuit volumes. He outlined plans for increased brand investments, PPA adjustments for affordability, channel expansion, and a supply chain modernization program, stating that aggressive promotions in H1 2025 were ineffective and significant price decreases are not planned.

Peter Galbo asked for a detailed explanation of the path forward for the U.S. market to return to growth, similar to the depth provided for Europe. He also sought clarification on whether the company expects top-line algorithm growth for next year, given the stated visibility on EPS growth.

Answer

Dirk Van de Put (Chairman and CEO) noted the U.S. category slowing, with volume down 4% in the last quarter, driven by consumer concerns, value-seeking, and focus on essentials. He mentioned promos are not delivering expected ROIs and consumers are shifting to value club, online, and multipacks. Premium segments like Tate's Bake Shop and protein bars are performing well. Actions include increasing presence in club/value/e-commerce channels, pushing on-the-go multipacks and C-stores, RGM work on price points ($3 and big packs), doubling down on protein and premium brands, and optimizing promotions. He expects these actions to lead to positive growth next year. Luca Zaramella (CFO) stated it's premature to give an exact 2026 top-line range due to cocoa uncertainty but outlined three components: Europe (expected chocolate volume growth), developing markets (continuous growth), and the U.S. (restoring top and bottom line through channel expansion and brand investment).

Peter Galbo asked for a detailed overview of Mondelēz's strategy to restore growth in the U.S. market, considering consumer behavior, channel shifts, and promotional effectiveness. He also sought clarity on whether the company expects 2026 top-line growth to align with its EPS algorithm, given the ongoing cocoa situation and market dynamics.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Dirk Van de Put explained the U.S. category slowdown, driven by consumer concerns, value-seeking behavior, and shifts to club, value, and online channels. He highlighted efforts to increase market share in these channels, adapt PPA, and focus on premium (Tate's, belVita, Hu) and better-for-you (protein) segments. CFO Luca Zaramella stated that 2026 top-line growth would be influenced by potential cocoa declines, volume growth in European chocolate, continuous growth in developing markets, and U.S. channel expansion and brand investments, but did not provide a specific top-line range yet.

Peter Galbo of Bank of America requested more detail on the factors influencing the second-half outlook, given the strong first half, and asked about the impact of favorable cocoa price movements on 2026 hedging.

Answer

CEO Dirk Van de Put explained that the unchanged guidance reflects caution around potential chocolate elasticity in Europe following a heatwave and persistent consumer weakness in the U.S. CFO Luca Zaramella added that cocoa market fundamentals are improving, with easing demand and a promising crop outlook. He noted that cocoa butter ratios have declined dramatically, providing a material cost benefit that the company has taken advantage of.

Peter Galbo of Bank of America questioned why full-year guidance remained unchanged despite a strong first half, seeking clarity on second-half risks. He also asked about the favorable trend in cocoa prices and its impact on 2026 hedging strategy.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Dirk Van de Put explained the cautious guidance stems from monitoring chocolate price elasticity in Europe following a heatwave and uncertainty around the U.S. consumer. CFO Luca Zaramella added that cocoa market fundamentals are improving, with lower demand and a promising crop outlook for 2026. He noted the company took advantage of a recent price dip and that lower cocoa butter costs provide a material benefit.

Peter Galbo asked for clarification on the impact of the Easter timing shift on chocolate elasticity, suggesting it might be better than planned, and sought more color on the drivers of North American inventory destocking within a DSD system.

Answer

CFO Luca Zaramella noted that while Q1 elasticity was favorable, more significant pricing took effect in Q2, which will be a more accurate measure. CEO Dirk Van de Put explained that the destocking occurred mainly in food and mass channels, where retailers' centralized ordering systems manage back-room stock levels, a factor that the DSD execution model does not fully control.

Peter Galbo asked about the 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of approximately $2.90, questioning if the 2023 EPS is a more appropriate high-water mark than 2024's. He also inquired about the potential path for earnings to return to that higher level.

Answer

CFO Luca Zaramella clarified that 2024's EPS base benefited from a favorable cocoa pipeline relative to the market, which will not repeat in 2025. He explained the path back to higher EPS levels depends on future cocoa prices and the company's corresponding pricing actions. He reiterated a firm commitment to delivering EPS growth in 2026, either by taking more price if cocoa stays high or by realizing higher earnings if cocoa prices fall.

Peter Galbo sought to clarify if the difficult path to 2025 EPS growth included the dilution from the JDE Peet's share sale. He also asked for more detail on the extent of the pipeline fill in Europe during Q3 following earlier customer disruptions.

Answer

CFO Luca Zaramella confirmed his comment on the 2025 EPS outlook was on a like-for-like basis and did not include the modest dilution from the JDE Peet's transaction. Regarding Europe, he stated that while there was some pipeline building for back-to-school, the overall impact was not material to the quarter's results.

Peter Galbo asked for clarification on the impact of recent M&A (Poppi, Siete) as they transition into organic growth, seeking to frame their contribution to the full year's organic sales.

Answer

Steve Schmitt, CFO, specified that Siete would transition to organic in March, Poppi in July, and Alani Nu towards the end of the year. He stated that these acquisitions are expected to help organic growth, but specific quantification would be provided as the quarters evolve.

Peter Galbo asked for clarification on the contribution of recent M&A (Poppi, Siete, Alani Nu) to full-year organic growth once they lap their acquisition dates and become organic, seeking to understand the base business's like-for-like performance.

Answer

EVP and CFO Steve Schmitt stated that Siete will flip into organic growth in March, Poppi in July, and Alani Nu towards the end of the year. He confirmed that these acquisitions should certainly help organic growth, though PepsiCo has not been specific on the exact contribution but will report on it as the quarters evolve.

Peter Galbo asked about PepsiCo's strategy for addressing protein in beverages, specifically why the company chose to leverage in-house brands like Muscle Milk and Propel for protein innovation rather than pursuing acquisitions or partnerships as seen in other subcategories like energy or prebiotic.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Ramon Laguarta explained that leveraging existing platforms like Muscle Milk and Propel is a 'cheaper, better business decision' with a better ROI. He highlighted Muscle Milk's potential with improved product (taste, high protein, no artificials) and Propel's strong growth and credibility in hydration, which can expand into 'functional hydration plus.' He noted that acquisitions (like Poppi) are pursued when PepsiCo lacks an existing platform or when marketplace players already have significant scale.

Peter Galbo questioned PepsiCo's strategy for addressing the protein segment within PBNA, specifically asking about the decision to primarily leverage in-house brands like Muscle Milk and Propel versus pursuing acquisitions or partnerships, as seen in other subcategories like energy or prebiotics. He requested further explanation on the organic versus acquisition/partnership approach for protein in beverages.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Ramon Laguarta explained that leveraging existing platforms like Muscle Milk and Propel is a more cost-effective and better business decision, offering a higher ROI. He highlighted the improved product quality of Muscle Milk (great taste, high protein, good mouthfeel, no artificials) and its potential to stretch as a brand. Propel, with its high female penetration and double-digit CAGR, has credibility in hydration and can expand into "functional hydration plus" with multi-year innovation opportunities. Laguarta noted that acquisitions like Poppi were pursued when PepsiCo lacked an existing platform or when marketplace players already had significant scale, indicating a dual strategy of internal innovation and strategic M&A for portfolio transformation.

Peter Galbo from Bank of America sought context on the expected sequential improvement in the Food business, particularly for Q3, given the more difficult volume comparison from last year's promotional activities.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Ramon Laguarta declined to provide specific quarterly details. He reiterated his broader outlook that total PepsiCo is on a path to return to the low end of its long-term top-line algorithm in the 'next few quarters,' driven by the combined performance of a strong international business and sequential improvement in North America.

Peter Galbo sought clarification on Tyson Foods' segment guidance, asking if the segment dollar ranges would have changed significantly aside from the announced accounting changes, to ensure an apples-to-apples comparison.

Answer

CFO Curt Calaway confirmed that the overall adjusted operating income guidance of $2.1 billion-$2.3 billion remains unchanged, and that Q1 performed in line with expectations, with the full-year outlook similar to November. He also highlighted the filing of an 8K with recast historicals for clarity. President and CEO Donnie King added that separating corporate expense and amortization is intended to lead to closer management, greater efficiency, and leverage, expecting more volume, greater capacity utilization, and a better overall cost structure. Peter Galbo then followed up on Chicken seasonality, particularly in Q2, asking if anything changes or if it becomes more accentuated due to the accounting changes. Donnie King stated that Q2 is off to a good start and in line with expectations, with normal seasonality. He emphasized that Tyson is less influenced by commodity markets due to strategic customer relationships and its portfolio makeup, which provides more consistency and a stable operating environment.

Peter Galbo followed up on the Chicken business, noting its historical seasonality, particularly in Q2, and asked if anything changes regarding this seasonality or if it's more accentuated now due to the reallocation of costs.

Answer

CEO Donnie King stated that the company is off to a good start in Q2, in line with guidance and internal expectations, and expects normal seasonality. He reiterated that Tyson is less influenced by commodity markets due to strategic customer relationships and its portfolio makeup, which provides more consistency and a stable operating environment.

Peter Galbo asked for insights into the phasing of chicken profitability over 2026, acknowledging that specific quarterly guidance is not provided. He also inquired about competitive dynamics in the lunch meat category within Prepared Foods, specifically regarding pricing, promotion, and whether market activity has been rational or if other strategies are disrupting category dynamics.

Answer

CFO Kurt Calaway stated that while quarterly guidance isn't provided, normal seasonality would likely play out across segments, with some volatility expected in beef. COO Devin Cole highlighted strong lunch meat growth (10.3%) in Q4, attributing it to a winning combination of pricing and targeted marketing. He noted increased visibility from data and software investments to adjust strategies in real-time. Chief Growth Officer Kristina Lambert added that distribution increases across almost all categories and increased, targeted promotional spending contributed to success, leveraging platforms for real-time insights.

Peter Galbo of Bank of America asked for a comparison between the start of heifer retention and the large impairment taken in the Beef segment, questioning if it implied a delayed recovery. He also inquired about consumer elasticity and the competitive landscape in the Prepared Foods category.

Answer

Group President Brady Stewart explained the beef cycle has been prolonged by drought, leading to forecasting challenges. CFO Curt Calaway added that the impairment was triggered by a narrow fair value cushion and rising cattle costs increasing the unit's carrying value. On Prepared Foods, Stewart expressed confidence in managing costs through strong brands and innovation, noting that protein has lower elasticity and consumer behavior has not materially changed in 2025.

Peter Galbo from Bank of America inquired about the new cold storage strategy, seeking details on the $200 million savings breakout and the timing. He also asked about the drivers of Prepared Foods' margin performance amid rising raw material costs.

Answer

CEO Donnie King and Group President Brady Stewart detailed that the logistics overhaul will simplify a complex network, generating $200 million in annual savings over 3-5 years, primarily benefiting the Poultry and Prepared Foods segments. Regarding Prepared Foods, Stewart highlighted that performance is driven by a strong management system, brand leadership, and a robust innovation pipeline, with CEO Donnie King adding that the segment has a clear path to delivering margins above 10%.

Peter Galbo from Bank of America asked for an assessment of the Prepared Foods portfolio and potential reshaping, given its margins trail peers, and requested more detail on the moving pieces related to potential trade tariffs.

Answer

Kyle Narron, Group President of Prepared Foods, affirmed his confidence in the current portfolio, citing iconic brands and a strong innovation pipeline. CEO Donnie King addressed tariffs, noting the primary concern for Mexico is pork, and the company's strategy involves finding alternative markets. Brady Stewart and Wes Morris added that the volumes impacted are manageable within their global supply chain.

Peter Galbo asked for more details on North America's performance, noting it lags other regions, particularly personal care weakness, and inquired about 2026 planning for innovation and market execution to accelerate organic sales.

Answer

Noel Wallace, Chairman, President, and CEO, acknowledged North America's tough but improving Q4, noting category growth lags due to consumer uncertainty, impacting volume (e.g., dish, fabric softener). He mentioned a gap between organic sales and consumption, possibly due to couponing and inventory pressure. For 2026, the focus is on a stronger innovation pipeline, revenue growth management, and driving premium innovation while watching competitive activity. He also addressed softness in the premium skin health business due to China decisions and restructuring.

Peter Galbo focused on North America's performance, noting it lags other regions, particularly in personal care. He asked about specific innovation and market execution plans for North America in 2026 to improve organic sales and "right the ship."

Answer

Chairman, President, and CEO Noel Wallace acknowledged a tough but improving Q4 for North America, citing sluggish category growth, especially in home care (dish, fabric softener). He attributed this to consumer uncertainty and pantry destocking. For 2026, the focus is on a stronger innovation pipeline, improved revenue growth management, and driving premium innovation in oral care. He also mentioned restructuring in the premium skin health business, which had been impacted by China-related decisions.

Peter Galbo from Bank of America asked for clarification on the P&L impact from exiting the private label business at Hill's. He also sought a deeper explanation for why Hill's is outperforming the broader pet food category so significantly.

Answer

Chairman, CEO & President Noel Wallace attributed Hill's outperformance to its consistent strategy focusing on high-end therapeutic products, strong veterinarian advocacy, and targeted R&D in growth areas like wet food, cat food, and small dog formulas. CFO Stanley Sutula clarified that the year-over-year negative impact from the private label exit will be around 80-90 basis points in Q3 and Q4, slightly higher than the 60 basis points seen in Q2.

Peter Galbo sought clarification on P&G's expectation of returning to the lower half of its long-term growth algorithm in the second half, specifically regarding U.S. category growth estimates (2% vs. a potential 3% if inventory laps were excluded).

Answer

CFO Andre Schulten stated that global categories are growing around 2% in value, with Enterprise Markets at mid-single digits and China at negative 1%. He noted U.S. all-outlet value growth at 1-2%, potentially including a point of inventory. P&G's U.S. organic sales were down 2%, below market, due to inventory effects and reduced share. The H2 recovery is expected to include both the base period effect moving out and P&G recovering share, with an objective to exit the fiscal year with share momentum.

Peter Galbo sought clarification on CFO Andre Schulten's comments regarding P&G's return to the lower half of its long-term growth algorithm in the second half, specifically concerning the expected U.S. category growth rate.

Answer

CFO Andre Schulten clarified that global categories are seeing about 2% value growth, with enterprise markets growing mid-single digits. He noted that while the U.S. all-outlet read indicates 1-2% value growth (with some inventory impact), P&G delivered 3% growth outside the U.S. but -2% in the U.S., partly due to inventory effects and reduced share. The objective is to exit the fiscal year with share momentum in the U.S. and globally.

Peter Galbo inquired about the competitive landscape in North America, specifically in fabric care and baby care, and the real-time competitive activities observed by Procter & Gamble.

Answer

CFO Andre Schulten noted heightened competitive activity, including increased promotion, in North America fabric care and baby care. He explained that P&G's response focuses on an integrated superiority strategy, driving innovation like the Tide liquid upgrade, Tide Evo, and Pampers Baby Dry restage, to achieve sustainable growth and trade-up rather than solely relying on promotions.

Peter Galbo asked for more details on competitive activity in North America, specifically in fabric care and baby care, and what P&G is observing in real-time.

Answer

Andre Schulten, CFO, acknowledged heightened competitive activity, including increased promotion in fabric care and baby care, due to a tighter market. He emphasized P&G's integrated superiority strategy, focusing on innovation, communication, and retailer support to drive sustainable growth, citing examples like Tide's liquid detergent upgrade and Pampers' multi-tier innovation.

Peter Galbo of Bank of America sought clarification on the tariff headwind calculation and asked about the flexibility within the 'Rest of World' tariff bucket amid ongoing trade announcements.

Answer

CFO Andre Schulten clarified that while recent trade news reduced the headline tariff number, the details remain uncertain. He cautioned that any reduction in tariffs would likely be offset by lower pricing, resulting in a neutral impact. President, CEO & Chairman Jon Moeller added that complexities like USMCA exemptions and potential retaliatory tariffs create further uncertainty.

Peter Galbo inquired about the gross margin performance in Q4, noting it came in below expectations, and sought clarification on the drivers of core inflation and tariff relief. He also asked for more parameters around the expected gross margin expansion for 2026, specifically if it implies a full recovery of the 2025 compression. Additionally, he asked for clarification on the ERP costs, specifically if accelerated spend into 2026 means these costs will remain in the base for 2027 and beyond.

Answer

Marcos Gabriel, EVP and CFO, attributed the Q4 gross margin decline to indirect tariff-related market pressures (accelerated inflation) and the direct impact of recognizing more tariff inventory in the P&L. He emphasized holistic P&L management, with SG&A savings offsetting gross margin pressure. For 2026, he expects to recover the 60 basis points of margin compression from 2025, providing qualitative guidance due to market uncertainty. Brendan Foley, President and CEO, explained the ERP program's acceleration into 2026 by compressing deployment waves to minimize risk, shifting costs from 2027 into 2026, with overall program costs remaining unchanged and moderation expected in 2027 and further in 2028.

Peter Galbo asked for clarification on the gross margin performance in the fourth quarter, noting it came in below expectations, and sought parameters for the anticipated gross margin expansion in 2026, specifically if it implies a full recovery of the 2025 compression. He also requested clarification on the ERP costs, asking if the accelerated spend into 2026 means these costs will remain in the base for 2027 and beyond.

Answer

Marcos Gabriel, Executive Vice President and CFO, attributed the Q4 gross margin decline to indirect tariff-related market pressures and the direct impact of tariffs from product mix. He stated that McCormick expects to recover the 60 basis points of margin compression from 2025 in the 2026 outlook, providing qualitative guidance due to market uncertainty. Brendan Foley, Chairman, President, and CEO, and Marcos Gabriel clarified that ERP program costs remain unchanged overall, but the refined execution plan shifts more expenses into 2026, with moderation expected in 2027 and further in 2028.

Peter Galbo inquired about the specific factors driving the increased cost inflation guidance for 2025, excluding tariffs, and what accelerated through Q3. He also sought clarification on the implied Q4 gross margin required to meet the revised full-year guidance, specifically if it implies a year-over-year increase.

Answer

Executive Vice President and CFO Marcos Gabriel explained that Q3's gross margin decline was primarily due to accelerated commodity costs and existing/new tariffs, accounting for two-thirds of the impact, with the remaining one-third related to capacity support costs for future growth. He confirmed that the revised guidance implies a flat to modest basis point expansion in Q4 gross margin year-over-year.

Peter Galbo asked Marcos Gabriel to elaborate on the acceleration in cost inflation guidance for 2025, excluding tariffs, and what specifically drove the change in Q3. He also sought clarification on whether the revised guidance implies a Q4 gross margin step-up to approximately 41% (up year-over-year) to achieve the full-year flat target.

Answer

Marcos Gabriel, Executive Vice President and CFO, explained that Q3 gross margin was impacted by increased commodity costs and existing/new tariffs (two-thirds of the impact) and costs to support capacity for future growth, particularly for the heat platform (one-third of the impact). He noted that commodity costs accelerated in Q3, leading to the revised guidance. Brendan Foley, Chairman, President, and CEO, added that broad uncertainty and suppliers passing on tariff impacts indirectly contributed to inflation. Marcos Gabriel confirmed that the implied Q4 gross margin would be flat to modest basis points expansion as a percentage of net sales.

Peter Galbo requested more detail on the calculation of the $90 million gross tariff exposure and asked for an unpacking of the various headwinds and tailwinds impacting the Flavor Solutions business in the Americas.

Answer

EVP & CFO Marcos Gabriel clarified the $90 million tariff exposure represents about 2% of global COGS, derived from a blended tariff rate on imported raw materials. Chairman, President & CEO Brendan Foley detailed the Flavor Solutions dynamics, citing headwinds from volume softness among large CPG customers, which are being partially offset by tailwinds from wins with high-growth innovators in health and wellness categories. He also noted QSR strength in the Americas and APAC, contrasted with softness in EMEA due to geopolitical boycotts.

Peter Galbo inquired about the drivers of pricing in the Americas Consumer business and the dynamics behind the gap between shipment and consumption data in the quarter.

Answer

Chairman, President and CEO Brendan Foley clarified that an incremental, targeted promotion on seasonal recipe mixes (chili, gravy) drove some of the Q1 pricing impact in the Americas. He expects Americas pricing to be stable going forward, with the total Consumer segment price outlook remaining flat for the year. Regarding the shipment versus consumption gap, Foley described it as a typical Q1 dynamic following a strong holiday season, further influenced by the lack of early Easter shipments this year and slightly higher slotting spend for new innovations.

Peter Galbo questioned why the fiscal 2025 organic sales guidance of 1-3% implies a deceleration from Q4's momentum and is slightly below initial Investor Day expectations. He also asked for the outlook on U.S. Foodservice and the EMEA consumer business.

Answer

CEO Brendan Foley explained the guidance is a prudent, volume-driven plan with minimal pricing. The low end of the range accounts for weakness in China's consumer market and QSR softness in EMEA, while the high end reflects strength in Americas and EMEA consumer volumes. He noted the outlook is consistent with their Investor Day thinking and expects continued strength in the EMEA consumer business, with a gradual recovery in the EMEA Flavor Solutions segment.

Peter Galbo questioned why the full-year gross margin guidance was not raised despite strong year-to-date performance, suggesting potential conservatism. He also asked for McCormick's perspective on its China business, particularly how potential government stimulus might affect consumer demand.

Answer

EVP and CFO Mike Smith explained that while Q4 gross margin is expected to be sequentially higher than Q3, the year-over-year comparison is affected by a normalizing Flavor Solutions mix and planned supply chain investments. Incoming CFO Marcos Gabriel added that negative pricing in the Consumer segment in Q4 is another factor. On China, President and CEO Brendan Foley stated they expect the environment to remain challenged and are not in a position to predict the impact of stimulus, noting past actions did not materially impact their business.

Peter Galbo requested more detail on the $90 million gross tariff exposure calculation and the separate COGS impact from the 'global trade environment,' as well as the outlook for the Americas Flavor Solutions business.

Answer

CFO Marcos Gabriel explained the $90M tariff exposure represents a blended rate on imported raw materials, equating to about 2% of global COGS. CEO Brendan Foley detailed Flavor Solutions dynamics, citing headwinds from soft volumes at large CPG customers offset by wins with high-growth innovators in health and wellness. He also noted QSR strength in the Americas and APAC, contrasted with softness in EMEA due to geopolitical boycotts.

Peter Galbo asked for an update on the competitive dynamics in Asia, particularly regarding local competitors and their impact on export markets, and sought clarification on the second-half gross margin outlook, specifically if the flat-to-down commentary applies to both Q3 and Q4.

Answer

President and CEO Michael Smith acknowledged strength in China and APAC, noting that a strong European crop and added capacity in developing markets are pressuring exports and pricing from Europe. CFO Bernadette Madarieta clarified that the flat-to-down gross margin commentary applies to the entire second half, with normal seasonality being moderated, expecting Q3 to flatten the typical seasonal increase and Q4 to step down from there, primarily due to mix shifts, pricing headwinds, and Argentina ramp-up costs.

Peter Galbo inquired about the international market dynamics, specifically seeking an update on Asia and Asia export markets, and whether competition from local players has intensified since the last earnings call. He also asked for clarification on the 'flat to down' second-half gross margin commentary, questioning if it applies to both Q3 and Q4, given historical Q3 performance.

Answer

CEO Michael Smith noted strength in China and APAC, a strong European crop leading to lower raw costs amidst depressed traffic, and added capacity in developing markets pressuring European exports. He reiterated belief in future international growth, particularly in Argentina. CFO Bernadette Madarieta clarified that the 'flat to down' gross margin comment was for the entire second half, driven by mix shifts, pricing headwinds, and Argentina ramp-up costs, which would moderate typical seasonal trends, flattening the Q3 increase and leading to a Q4 step-down.

Peter Galbo asked if the historical seasonality of gross margins, with a step-up in Q3 and a decline in Q4, is expected to return in the second half of the fiscal year, given the Q1 performance was similar to pre-COVID patterns. He also questioned the change in philosophy regarding the expansion of broker usage in North America, traditionally a strength of Lamb Weston's direct sales force, and how this is being received internally.

Answer

CFO Bernadette Madarieta confirmed that, following a flat gross margin expectation for Q1 to Q2, the company anticipates a seasonal step-up in Q3 and a seasonal decline in Q4, consistent with historical patterns. CEO Mike Smith clarified that the direct sales force is being maintained and augmented with brokers in underpenetrated channels, allowing the direct team to focus on their successful areas while exploring new upside opportunities. He stated that the sales leadership team is supportive and excited about this approach.

Peter Galbo inquired if historical gross margin seasonality, with a step-up in Q3 and a decline in Q4, should be expected to return in the second half of the fiscal year. He also asked about the change in philosophy regarding the expanded use of brokers in North America, traditionally a direct sales force strength, and its internal reception.

Answer

CFO Bernadette Madarieta confirmed that based on Q1 strength, gross margin is expected to be flat with Q2, followed by a seasonal step-up in Q3 and a seasonal decline in Q4, consistent with historical patterns. CEO Mike Smith clarified that Lamb Weston is maintaining its direct sales force while augmenting it with brokers in underpenetrated channels, a move supported by the sales team as it allows them to focus on core areas and explore new opportunities.

Peter Galbo of Bank of America inquired about the fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin target, asking if the guided 17% represents a floor and what factors could influence it. He also requested details on the working capital improvement plan, particularly concerning inventory reduction strategies.

Answer

President & CEO Mike Smith explained that while the FY26 margin is below the normalized range due to customer support and strategic investments, the company's new $250 million cost savings program and the category's strength provide a path back to historical levels. He added that working capital improvements are a key part of the 'Focus to Win' strategy, driven by stronger Q4 volumes, reduced crop acres, and investments in integrated planning capabilities to optimize inventory.

Peter Galbo requested a breakdown of pressures in the International business, specifically in Europe and Asia, and asked if the gross margin deleverage from idling capacity was greater than anticipated.

Answer

President and CEO Thomas Werner explained that in Europe, a better-than-expected potato crop made it difficult to pass through inflation, while in Asia, the market remains competitive as the company works to regain business lost during its ERP transition. He also acknowledged disappointing production inefficiencies that impacted gross margins, which are being addressed. CFO Bernadette Madarieta added that increased capacity in Asia is making it more of an export market.

Peter Galbo questioned the longer-term impact of idling production lines, asking if gross margins could remain structurally lower if demand does not improve. He also sought to understand the components of the SG&A reduction beyond the announced restructuring savings.

Answer

President and CEO Tom Werner positioned the production cuts as a short-term measure, expressing confidence that restaurant traffic will rebound and the company's modernized asset base will drive future strength. CFO Bernadette Madarieta clarified that the additional SG&A reduction beyond the restructuring plan savings is primarily attributable to people-related costs.

Peter Galbo asked for Conagra's perspective on two of its largest peers enacting price cuts, and what that potential activity could mean for the group and Conagra's actions, especially given announced pricing in some staples. He also followed up on inflation guidance, asking where inflation ran in the first half and second quarter specifically, and how it fits into the 7% annual guidance.

Answer

CEO Sean Connolly clarified that Conagra has limited overlap with peers enacting price cuts. He explained that Conagra has not rolled back prices; instead, they deferred inflation-justified pricing in frozen and snacks to layer on reasonable promotional activity, achieving desired volume inflection without lowering list prices. He noted that volume sold on deal and depth of discount are consistent with or more conservative than historical levels. CFO Dave Marberger reiterated the total gross inflation guidance of 7% for the year (core inflation above 4% plus 3% tariffs), confirming they are on track despite puts and takes like chicken favorability offset by beef and pork increases. He clarified that Q2 gross inflation was 'a little bit south of seven.'

Peter Galbo asked for Sean Connolly's perspective on potential price cuts from peers and how Conagra's strategy of not rolling back list prices but deferring inflation-justified pricing and layering on promotions might translate to the group's actions, and inquired about the inflation guidance for the year, specifically Q2 gross inflation.

Answer

CEO Sean Connolly explained that Conagra has limited overlap with peers enacting price cuts. He clarified Conagra's strategy in frozen and snacks: not lowering list prices but deferring inflation-justified pricing to enable reasonable, high-quality promotional activity, which has led to desired volume inflection without increasing depth or frequency of discounts beyond historical levels. CFO Dave Marberger reiterated the total gross inflation guidance of 7% for the year (core inflation >4%, gross tariff inflation ~3%), noting puts and takes like chicken favorability offset by beef/pork increases, and confirmed Q2 gross inflation was a little south of 7%.

Peter Galbo of Bank of America inquired about the key drivers behind the 4% core inflation forecast for fiscal 2026 and questioned the decision to maintain the dividend given rising leverage and significant capital needs.

Answer

EVP & CFO David Marberger detailed the inflation drivers, highlighting double-digit inflation in animal proteins as the primary factor, along with rising costs in manufacturing labor and warehousing. Regarding the dividend, Marberger affirmed the company's commitment, stating that the fiscal 2026 cash flow forecast sufficiently covers increased capital expenditures, a planned $700 million debt reduction, and the current dividend. He characterized the year as a transitory investment period, expressing confidence in their cash management and future profit recovery.

Peter Galbo inquired about the sustainability of North America Retail volume growth, considering a shipment timing benefit in the quarter, and how General Mills views the competitive environment, particularly regarding price cliff management and recent dramatic price reductions by peers.

Answer

Dana McNabb, Group President of North America Retail and North America Pet, acknowledged a shipment timing benefit and expected it to unwind in the back half, while Jeff Harmening, Chairman and CEO, stated that competitive levels haven't increased, emphasizing effective pricing execution, innovation, and marketing improvements.

Peter Galbo sought clarification on the Q2 operating profit and first-half operating profit expectations, and a broader question on whether the retail packaged food industry is adapting fast enough to compete with the away-from-home channel's sharper pricing and value messaging, and if any pronounced share shifts have been observed.

Answer

CFO Kofi Bruce confirmed that Q2 operating profit would likely be down around 25%, making the first half similar to Q4 of the previous fiscal year. Chairman & CEO Jeffrey Harmening stated that away-from-home traffic has been stable, with declines in low/middle-income consumers offset by growth in high-income consumers. He noted that away-from-home inflation, driven by labor, is faster than food at home. He highlighted General Mills' strong position in the growing non-commercial foodservice channel (K-12, hospitality, business/industry).

Peter Galbo sought clarification on the Q2 operating profit decline, confirming his math that it would be down approximately 25% based on the first half outlook. He then asked a broader question about the retail packaged food industry's adaptation to competition from away-from-home channels, which are increasingly focused on value pricing, and whether any pronounced share shifts have been observed.

Answer

Kofi Bruce, CFO of General Mills, confirmed Peter Galbo's math regarding the Q2 operating profit decline. Jeff Harmening, Chairman and CEO, stated that while he always prefers faster adaptation, away-from-home traffic has been stable, with declines in low/middle-income consumers offset by growth in high-income and commercial channels. He noted that away-from-home inflation, driven by labor, is growing faster than food at home. General Mills is well-positioned in the growing non-commercial channel (K-12 schools, hospitality, business/industry) through its food service business, where it is gaining share.

Peter Galbo sought clarification on the expected Q2 operating profit decline relative to Q4 fiscal 2025 and asked about the retail packaged food industry's adaptation to the increasingly sharp value pricing and messaging from away-from-home channels.

Answer

Kofi Bruce, CFO, confirmed that Q2 operating profit is expected to be down approximately 25%, similar to Q4 fiscal 2025. Jeff Harmening, Chairman and CEO, noted that away-from-home traffic has been stable, with declines in low/middle-income consumers offset by growth in high-income and non-commercial channels (K-12, hospitality, business/industry). He highlighted that General Mills is well-positioned in the growing non-commercial food service segment, where inflation is driven by labor, making value offerings challenging for quick-serve restaurants.

Peter Galbo asked for clarification on the Q4 Pet segment retail inventory build and its potential reversal in Q1. He also requested a broader update on the underlying state of the Pet business, given its quarterly volatility.

Answer

CEO Jeffrey Harmening explained that Pet segment inventory levels are healthy but that quarter-to-quarter lumpiness is normal due to the high proportion of volatile e-commerce sales. He confirmed a three-point inventory build in Q4 but did not predict its reversal timing. He added that the core Pet business has returned to stability and slight growth, with strong performance in cat food and advertising, while work continues on the Wilderness and treats brands.

Peter Galbo of Bank of America requested clarification on the expected reversal of the Q4 Pet segment inventory build and asked for a broader update on the underlying state of the Pet business, given recent volatility.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Jeffrey Harmening answered both questions, stating that while Pet inventory levels are healthy, the timing of any reversal is hard to predict due to the inherent volatility of its large e-commerce business. Regarding the underlying business, he expressed encouragement that the Pet segment has stabilized, returned to slight growth, and held market share, citing strong performance in its cat business and Tiki Cat integration, while noting areas like Wilderness and treats still require work.

Peter Galbo requested a deeper dive into the snacks business, asking for clarification on remediation plans for fruit snacks, snack bars, and the salty snacks portfolio.

Answer

CEO Jeffrey Harmening detailed a multi-pronged approach for fruit snacks, involving value, innovation, and marketing, similar to the successful turnaround of Blue Buffalo. For bars, he expressed confidence in a rebound driven by innovation. For the smaller salty snacks business, he noted the need for both a value adjustment and innovation around 'bold flavors'.

Peter Galbo asked for more detail on the snacks business, specifically seeking clarification on the value strategy for fruit snacks and requesting more information on remediation plans for the snack bars and salty snacks categories.

Answer

CEO Jeffrey Harmening explained the fruit snacks plan mirrors the Blue Buffalo playbook: get value in range to compete with private label, then drive growth with innovation and marketing. For bars, he expressed confidence in a rebound despite a tough quarterly comparison. For salty snacks, he noted the plan involves both a value play and introducing bolder flavors to meet consumer demand.

Peter Galbo asked about the company's plans for a significant bond maturity in 2026 and sought clarification on the goodwill impairment charge, specifically how it aligns with the view of cyclical versus structural industry headwinds.

Answer

CFO Tracey Joubert stated that the 2026 debt maturity will be reviewed closer to its due date, with a focus on maintaining leverage ratios below 2.5x. CEO Rahul Goyal explained that the $3.6 billion goodwill impairment charge was impacted by Q3 performance, the business outlook, discount rates, risk premium, and multiples. He reiterated confidence in the business's ability to return to growth, viewing the company as undervalued.

Peter Galbo asked CFO Tracey Joubert about Molson Coors' plans for addressing a significant bond maturity in 2026. He also questioned CEO Rahul Goyal on the $3.6 billion goodwill impairment charge, asking him to reconcile it with his view of cyclical versus structural industry headwinds.

Answer

CFO Tracey Joubert stated that debt maturities are reviewed closer to their due dates, with a focus on maintaining leverage ratios below 2.5x. CEO Rahul Goyal explained the goodwill impairment was influenced by Q3 performance, the business outlook, discount rates, risk premium, and multiples, while reiterating confidence in the company's ability to return to growth and its undervalued market position.

Peter Galbo of Bank of America requested more specific details on the impact of volume deleverage on margins for the second half of the year.

Answer

CFO Tracey Joubert reiterated that shipments outpaced retail sales by 800,000 hectoliters in the first half, compared to 1.1 million in the prior year. She explained that the resulting 300,000 hectoliter timing difference is expected to reverse in the second half, primarily in Q3, as the company aligns shipments with consumption, which is a key component of the volume deleverage dynamic.

Peter Galbo, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America, questioned the sustained high levels of cut markets, particularly bellies and trim, over the summer, and their subsequent decline since the end of the quarter. He sought clarification on whether this reflects normal seasonality or demand destruction. Galbo also asked for Shane Smith's perspective on the beef trim markets, noting their significant impact on packaged meats raw material costs and recent administrative commentary, inquiring about the outlook for beef trim over the next 12 months and potential for relief.

Answer

Shane Smith, President and CEO, stated that the decline is normal seasonality, not demand destruction, with belly markets still elevated historically. Steve France, President of Packaged Meats, and Donovan Owens, President of Fresh Pork, reiterated strong pork demand and limited supply, suggesting continued elevated prices into Q1 2026, tempering any weakness. Owens also highlighted disciplined pricing and promotions in packaged meats to protect profitability despite high belly markets. Smith indicated that a material recovery in beef is not expected until late 2027. He contextualized potential imports from Argentina (around 175-176 million pounds, 85% lean trim) as representing only about 1% of U.S. production (25.5 billion pounds annually), thus not significantly impacting the market. He concluded that pork remains well-positioned from a value perspective relative to beef.

Peter Galbo with Bank of America asked about the sustained high levels of cut markets (bellies, trim) during the summer and their subsequent decline, seeking clarification on whether this reflects normal seasonality or demand destruction. He also inquired about the outlook for beef trim markets over the next 12 months, potential for relief, and the impact of administrative commentary, given beef's significant role in raw material costs.

Answer

Shane Smith, President and CEO, Steve France, President of Packaged Meats, and Donovan Owens, President of Fresh Pork, clarified that the recent market movements are primarily normal seasonality, not demand destruction. They expect belly markets to remain elevated compared to historical terms, with strong pork demand continuing into 2026 due to limited expansion and high beef prices. Shane Smith added that the beef market recovery is still anticipated in late 2027, with potential imports from Argentina representing only about 1% of U.S. production, mostly lean trim, thus not materially impacting the overall market.

Peter Galbo from Bank of America questioned the confidence in maintaining the Packaged Meats profit outlook amid rising raw material costs and sought clarity on the mark-to-market hedging impact in the Hog Production segment.

Answer

Shane Smith, President and CEO, and Steven France, President of Packaged Meats, cited operational efficiencies and formula-based pricing in their private label business as key mitigants to input cost inflation. CFO Mark Hall explained the $15 million mark-to-market loss was a timing issue related to accounting rules for hedges, and the underlying business performance justified the raised full-year outlook.

Peter Galbo from Bank of America questioned the confidence in maintaining the packaged meats profitability outlook amid rising raw material costs and asked for details on the mark-to-market hedging impact on the hog production segment's guidance.

Answer

Shane Smith, President and CEO, and Steven France, President of Packaged Meats, explained that cost efficiencies, SKU rationalization, automation, and formula-based pricing in their private label business help mitigate inflation. CFO Mark Hall clarified that a $15 million Q2 mark-to-market adjustment on hedges relates to future periods and that strong underlying business performance justifies the raised full-year outlook for hog production.

Peter Galbo inquired about the drivers behind the low to mid-single-digit sales guidance, seeking a breakdown of volume versus price by segment. He also asked for context on the Hog Production segment's breakeven guidance for the year, given that recent industry data suggests stronger profitability.

Answer

CFO Mark Hall attributed the sales growth outlook to continued market price appreciation and modest volume growth across the business, excluding Hog Production. President and CEO Shane Smith explained that while the futures market indicates a return to industry profitability, Smithfield's guidance of -$50M to +$50M for Hog Production is a prudent range that reflects the macro environment and the company's ongoing cost structure improvements, such as closing high-cost farms and genetic changeovers.

Peter Galbo of Bank of America asked when the company expects to recover from the price/cost lag. He also questioned the decision to increase inventory at the peak of the commodity cycle and asked if there is a systemic visibility problem on costs.

Answer

President John Ghingo noted that recovery timing varies, with pass-through pricing catching up over time while retail pricing requires a more balanced approach. CFO Jacinth Smiley asserted, "we do not have an inventory problem," explaining the build was intentional to meet demand and improve service levels, and that the balance is also inflated by higher input costs.

Peter Galbo asked for a bridge to the significant second-half operating income ramp implied by guidance and inquired about the cadence of the Turkey portfolio's recovery, considering market dynamics.

Answer

CEO Jim Snee expressed confidence in the second-half ramp, citing the on-track Planters recovery, momentum in value-added Turkey, and strong performance in Foodservice and Retail. EVP of Retail John Ghingo added that increased advertising spend would support retail growth. CFO Jacinth Smiley provided Q3 segment growth expectations, and Jim Snee noted that while the Turkey market supply is tightening, Hormel is well-positioned with its value-added offerings.

Peter Galbo questioned the earnings per share (EPS) cadence for fiscal 2025, noting that Q1 results and Q2 guidance imply a very steep ramp in the second half of the year. He asked for the key building blocks that give management confidence in achieving this significant back-half acceleration. He also inquired about the ongoing CEO search process and whether the Board is considering external candidates more aggressively than in the past.

Answer

CEO James Snee confirmed the back-half ramp, attributing it to consistent performance from the value-added business, the on-track recovery of Planters, and broad-based growth in Foodservice. He noted that while near-term turkey supply chain pressures are a headwind, strategic pricing actions will benefit Q3 and Q4. CFO Jacinth Smiley added that the largest second-half contributors will be Planters and the Transform & Modernize (T&M) initiative. Regarding the CEO search, Snee stated the Board is rigorously evaluating both internal and external candidates to find the right leader, emphasizing his own commitment to delivering 2025 goals during the transition.

Peter Galbo sought to clarify the math behind the long-term EBIT target by confirming the starting point for the calculation. He also asked if the full-year impact from the turkey business in 2025 is expected to be neutral, with Q1 weakness offset by lower grain benefits.

Answer

CEO Jim Snee confirmed the analyst's math regarding the EBIT growth from the 2023 starting point to the 2025 guidance midpoint. CFO Jacinth Smiley clarified the turkey outlook, stating the company assumes depressed pricing comparable to Q4 will persist through 2025 and that it expects only 'moderate benefits' from strategically hedged grain costs. Snee added that the value-added turkey business is expected to grow, while the commodity side is planned appropriately for a flat to slightly down environment.

Peter Galbo of Bank of America sought confirmation on the $0.15 EPS headwind from Turkey for fiscal 2024 and asked about the potential for recovery in 2025. He also questioned the level of historical underinvestment in the Planters facility, given the recent production disruption.

Answer

CEO James Snee confirmed the $0.15 EPS headwind from Turkey remains accurate but stated it is too early to forecast 2025 recovery due to market volatility. Regarding Planters, Snee asserted that the acquisition thesis holds and that Hormel's enhanced food safety protocols enabled early detection of the issue. He described the disruption as a sign that their system worked, and while the production ramp-up is slow, they are confident in getting the brand back on track to deliver on its strategic value.

Peter Galbo of Bank of America requested more detail on the drivers behind the favorable Q1 beer gross margin, specifically the contributions from operational improvements and peso hedging, and the outlook for these factors.

Answer

EVP & CFO Garth Hankinson credited the company's multi-year hedging policy for smoothing currency impacts. He noted they increased their peso hedge position to over 80% for the year to lock in favorable rates, and while some opportunity remains, the impact will be less material going forward due to these actions.

Peter Galbo followed up on beer gross margins, asking for details on a $40 million operational tailwind and the extent to which favorable peso hedges contributed, as well as the outlook for FX impacts.

Answer

CFO Garth Hankinson explained their robust hedging policy, noting they are now over 80% hedged on the peso for the current fiscal year after layering in additional hedges. He stated that while there is still some opportunity, the potential FX impact is less material now than it was earlier in the year.

Peter Galbo asked for a higher-level view on what needs to happen for the snacking category's demand profile to improve and sought clarification on whether the new $0.03 to $0.05 tariff headwind should be considered a run-rate impact.

Answer

President, CEO & Director Mick Beekhuizen attributed the category drag to deteriorating consumer confidence and the discretionary nature of snacks, suggesting that improved consumer sentiment would be a key catalyst. Executive VP & CFO Carrie Anderson clarified that the tariff impact is not a simple run-rate, as it is being phased in from multiple sources (Canada, Section 232, reciprocal actions). She explicitly advised against annualizing the Q4 estimate, noting that mitigation efforts are ongoing and the trade landscape is dynamic.

Peter Galbo challenged the guidance for a relatively even EPS split between Q3 and Q4, noting it deviates from historical seasonality. He also asked if the company's tone on the broth category had become more positive and if expectations for private label headwinds had lessened.

Answer

CFO Carrie Anderson explained the atypical EPS cadence is due to continued Snacks pressure in Q3, followed by improvement in Q4 when the company will also lap a period of higher prior-year promotional spending. CEO Mick Beekhuizen confirmed a more positive outlook on broth, as the category remains strong and private label recovery has been slower than anticipated, resulting in a smaller-than-expected headwind for the second half.

Peter Galbo from Bank of America requested a quantification of the inventory shift impact from the later Thanksgiving holiday and asked for the data supporting the claim that Rao's is sourcing volume from the restaurant channel.

Answer

CEO Mark Clouse explained that the majority of the approximate 200-basis-point gap between in-market consumption and net sales in the Meals & Beverages division was due to the Thanksgiving timing shift. Regarding Rao's, he cited the broader consumer trend of shifting from away-from-home to at-home eating, strong growth from middle and lower-income households, and consumer research indicating that Rao's provides significant value compared to Italian takeout, a theme now central to its advertising.

Peter Galbo requested more detail on the competitive pressures within the Snacks division, specifically concerning potato and tortilla chips, and asked about performance differences across retail channels like club stores. He also asked for clarification on the expected quarterly phasing of organic sales growth in fiscal 2025, given the flat Q1 outlook.

Answer

CEO Mark Clouse noted a bifurcation in snacks, with Campbell's power brands competing in the faster-recovering 'elevated' segments where innovation is key. Regarding guidance, CFO Carrie Anderson and CEO Mark Clouse clarified the fiscal 2025 cadence: Q1 flat, followed by gradual improvement. They expect healthy categories in the second half, though the company will be cycling strong broth performance, with the recovering Snacks business expected to help offset this headwind.

Peter Galbo questioned if the composition of the 500 basis points EBITDA margin expansion target for 2026 has changed, given near-term pressures, and asked about long-term category prospects amid competitive capacity reductions.

Answer

CEO Gary Pilnick reiterated that the 500 bps expansion is still expected to come primarily from gross margin, driven by their on-schedule supply chain modernization. CFO David McKinstray added they are finding new efficiencies in SG&A and distribution. Pilnick framed the consumer shift to value and health as a long-term tailwind for the category.

Peter Galbo questioned if the composition of the reiterated 500 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion by 2026 has changed, specifically if it's still expected to come from gross margin. He also asked for perspective on the long-term prospects for the cereal category, given that competitors are also reducing capacity.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Gary Pilnick confirmed the 500 bps expansion is still expected to come through gross margin, driven by the on-schedule and on-budget supply chain modernization program. CFO Dave McKinstry added that they are now identifying further efficiencies in SG&A and distribution. Gary Pilnick also expressed confidence that the consumer shift toward value and health is a long-term tailwind for the category.

Peter Galbo requested a bridge to explain the difference between reported organic sales growth and weaker scanner data, and also asked about sourcing from Mexico and Canada given potential tariffs.

Answer

CFO David McKinstray attributed the sales outperformance versus scanner data to lapping a 2023 investment, strong non-measured channel performance, and an inventory build for new innovation. CEO Gary Pilnick described the tariff situation as fluid but stated the supply chain modernization plan is a long-term strategy that includes significant U.S. investment.

Asked for clarification on the Q3 volume benefit from retailer inventory and for an early read on 2025 inflation or below-the-line items.

Answer

The company clarified the Q3 benefit was not a current inventory build but rather lapping a significant inventory drawdown from the prior year due to supply issues. This one-time benefit is not expected to continue. They deferred detailed 2025 guidance on inflation and other items to the February call.

Peter Galbo sought to quantify the impact of retailer inventory replenishment on Q3 volume and asked if this benefit would persist into Q4. He also followed up with a request for an early read on 2025 inflation rates or other below-the-line financial items.

Answer

CFO Dave McKinstray clarified that the Q3 benefit was not an inventory build but rather the lapping of a significant inventory drawdown in Q3 2023 caused by prior supply chain issues. He confirmed this was a one-time lapping benefit that is not expected to continue. He deferred detailed 2025 guidance on inflation and other items to the February call.

Peter Galbo sought to quantify the impact of retailer inventory replenishment on the quarter's volume and asked if this benefit would persist into Q4. He also requested an early perspective on 2025 inflation or other below-the-line financial items.

Answer

David McKinstray, CFO, clarified that the Q3 benefit was not from an inventory build but from lapping a significant inventory drawdown in the prior year caused by supply issues. He confirmed this was a one-time effect that is not expected to repeat in Q4. He deferred detailed commentary on 2025 inflation and other items to the February earnings call.

Peter Galbo of Bank of America asked about Latin America's standout performance in Mexico and Brazil relative to peer commentary and macro conditions. He also inquired about the expected sales contribution from the new Pringles Mingles launch.

Answer

Chairman, President and CEO Steven Cahillane confirmed a strong quarter in Latin America, with growth in both cereal and snacks. He highlighted record shares for cereal in Mexico and strong Pringles momentum in Brazil, despite the impact of recent floods. He noted that the Pringles Mingles launch is not expected to be a meaningful net sales driver in the current year, with a more significant activation planned for Q1 of next year.

Asked for clarification on the Q4 revenue forecast for Sonoma-Cutrer regarding seasonality and also questioned if the company would reinvest its gross margin upside into promotions or marketing to boost volume.

Answer

The company advised against extrapolating the Q4 Sonoma-Cutrer revenue figure due to seasonality and distributor changes. Regarding reinvestment, they plan to reinvest into the business thoughtfully through their new distributor alignment. They also noted that Q3's margin benefit from a Kosta Browne timing shift will create some pressure in Q4.

Requested more detail on the sales and gross margin cadence for the second half of the year, particularly how the timing of Kosta Browne shipments would affect quarterly results.

Answer

The company explained that the Kosta Browne offering is moving from Q4 last year to primarily Q3 this year, which will make Q3 stronger relative to Q4. For gross margin, they expect slight improvement in the first half of the year, followed by margin pressure in the second half due to increased trade spend compared to the prior year.