Peter Saleh

Peter Saleh asked about the macro perspective embedded in the forward guidance, specifically regarding the potential impact of higher tax refunds and no taxes on tips/overtime. Peter Saleh also inquired about any observed changes or impacts from contemplated changes to SNAP benefits.

Answer

CFO Patrick Hatcher stated that potential tailwinds like tax refunds, no taxes on tips/overtime, and the World Cup were not embedded in the guidance due to quantification difficulty, but acknowledged them as positives. CEO Scott McPherson confirmed that no material impact has been observed from any changes or contemplated changes in SNAP benefits to date.

Peter Saleh asked about the macro perspective embedded in the forward guidance, specifically if higher tax refunds and other tailwinds were considered, and the performance of January and February relative to the importance of March for the quarter. He also inquired about any observed changes or impacts from SNAP benefits.

Answer

Patrick Hatcher, CFO, Performance Food Group Company, stated that potential tailwinds like higher tax refunds, no taxes on tips/overtime, and the World Cup were not embedded in guidance due to quantification difficulty, but acknowledged their positive potential. Scott McPherson, EVP and Chief Field Operations Officer, Performance Food Group Company, noted a good January start, with February impacted by weather. Mr. McPherson also confirmed no material impact observed from changes or contemplated changes in SNAP benefits.

Peter Saleh of BTIG inquired about the recovery of the breakfast daypart, particularly on Mondays and Fridays. He also asked for more detail on the types of cuisine or geographies driving new account growth.

Answer

CEO George Holm noted that Monday lunches have largely recovered but Fridays remain weak, partly due to restaurants not resuming 7-day operations. COO Scott McPherson added that the morning daypart is still the most pressured due to flexible work schedules. On new account growth, McPherson highlighted strong performance in the Mexican cuisine space, success in the Asian segment, and continued strength in Pizza and Italian.

Peter Saleh of BTIG asked if there were any observable changes in independent restaurant formation due to rising costs and tariffs, and also inquired about sales performance differences by geography.

Answer

COO Scott McPherson responded that it is too early to see an impact on restaurant formation and that the independent pipeline remains 'healthy and vibrant.' CEO George Holm provided a geographic breakdown, noting that the Northeast has been surprisingly strong, Florida has been challenged by closures, and the rest of the country has seen fairly similar, slight declines.

Peter Saleh asked for more details on the recent performance improvement in the national chain restaurant business. He also inquired about the expected timeline for realizing cost synergies from the Cheney Brothers acquisition.

Answer

COO Scott McPherson attributed the chain business improvement to strong double-digit growth from several key partners and a favorable mix shift, having replaced some underperforming accounts with better ones. CFO Patrick Hatcher stated that while integration is proceeding well, the $50 million in synergies from Cheney will be back-end loaded, with more significant contributions expected in years two and three post-acquisition.

Peter Saleh asked for details on the company's 'customer-first' digital ordering tool, including its current penetration and benefits, and whether the newly acquired Cheney Brothers would adopt this platform.

Answer

CEO George Holm acknowledged a steady adoption of digital ordering by customers. CFO Patrick Hatcher provided specifics, noting that Vistar has converted nearly 100% of its legacy users to the new platform, with Foodservice also seeing excellent conversion among independent customers. The Convenience segment is expected to go live in Q1. Holm confirmed that Cheney has its own ordering system and that PFG's approach allows for different go-to-market strategies among its salespeople, leading to varied adoption rates.

Peter Saleh asked about the progress of throughput initiatives, specifically if being below the 4-minute service target is the ultimate goal, or if there's further opportunity for improvement and where throughput could reach in the next year.

Answer

Brian Niccol, Chairman and CEO, acknowledged great progress on throughput during peak hours but noted continued opportunity during non-peak times to get every transaction under four minutes. He emphasized that demand exists when speed and convenience are right, citing earlier opening hours and the positive impact of the 'Grow' program and increased partner reps on performance across all access modes (mobile, cafe, drive-thru, delivery).

Peter Saleh inquired about Starbucks' throughput initiatives, asking if being below the 4-minute service target is the desired goal or if further improvements are expected, and where throughput could reach in the next year.

Answer

Brian Niccol, Chairman and CEO, acknowledged great progress on throughput during peak hours, but noted continued opportunities to achieve the under 4-minute metric for every transaction throughout the entire day. He highlighted that consistent performance during peaks allows for improvements during shoulder periods and the rest of the day. Niccol also mentioned the positive impact of the 'Grow' program, which focuses teams on key controllable metrics, and the potential for earlier opening hours due to improved efficiency.

Peter Saleh asked about the return on investment from the recent increase in advertising spend, how its effectiveness is being measured, and whether the current spending cadence will continue.

Answer

Brian Niccol, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, expressed satisfaction with the marketing efforts, citing brand tracker data showing 'brand first choice' sentiment is at its highest since 2023. He also pointed to improving transaction trends with non-Rewards customers and a shift to higher-quality sales. He indicated the multi-channel marketing approach will continue to be refined.

Peter Saleh from BTIG questioned the new strategy to deploy the Siren System only in the highest quartile of stores, asking why other stores don't need it and if they can achieve the 4-minute service goal without the new equipment.

Answer

CEO Brian Niccol explained that recent learnings show the bottleneck in most stores is process-related, specifically the lack of sequencing for mobile orders, rather than equipment capacity. He stated that for the majority of stores, implementing the right processes, staff deployment, and a new ordering algorithm is sufficient to unlock throughput and meet the 4-minute goal. The additional Siren equipment is only necessary at the highest volume thresholds.

Peter Saleh asked about the Siren System, noting historical pushback about it being too disruptive to install in existing stores, and requested a fresh perspective on the hurdles to its broader implementation.

Answer

CEO Brian Niccol acknowledged that lengthy store closures for renovations are unacceptable and are being addressed. He argued the primary past hurdle for Siren was not disruption, but a lack of a clear, unifying problem to solve. With the new, clear goal of a sub-4-minute service standard, the company can now strategically deploy the system to solve specific bottlenecks, making the business case for implementation clearer.

Peter Saleh asked about Darden's marketing strategy for Uber Direct, specifically the decision not to market it in Q2 and the game plan for the back half of the year. He also requested an update on the impact of tariffs on commodities and development costs.

Answer

CEO Rick Cardenas explained that Uber Direct was not marketed in Q2 because marketing dollars were prioritized for the Never Ending Pasta Bowl, which was deemed a more effective use of funds at the time. He could not comment on Q3 or Q4 marketing plans. CFO Raj Vennam stated that the tariff impact on commodities inflation is in the tens of basis points as a percentage of sales, and the impact on construction costs remains in the mid-single digits, with no significant changes.

Peter Saleh asked about Darden's marketing strategy for Uber Direct, specifically why no marketing was done in Q2 and the plans for the back half of the year. He also requested an update on the impact of tariffs on commodities and development costs.

Answer

CEO Rick Cardenas explained that Q2 marketing efforts prioritized the Never Ending Pasta Bowl over Uber Direct, and he could not comment on future marketing plans. CFO Raj Vennam stated that tariff impacts are included in commodities inflation (tens of basis points) and construction costs (mid-single digits), with no significant change.

Peter Saleh asked for more details on what is driving higher beef prices in the near term, why Darden believes these prices are not sustainable, and the strategy for taking more price at LongHorn Steakhouse if beef prices remain elevated.

Answer

CFO Raj Vennam explained that supply constraints from packer cutbacks, halted Mexican cattle imports due to screw worm, and tariffs on Brazilian beef are driving prices. He believes current double-digit price increases are unsustainable due to consumer affordability and consistent cattle-on-feed numbers. He stated that if high prices persist and demand remains strong, Darden would consider taking more price, though it's not the preferred path.

Peter Saleh asked for more details on the factors driving recent beef price increases, why Darden believes these prices are unsustainable, and the strategy for pricing at LongHorn Steakhouse if beef costs remain high or increase further.

Answer

Raj Vennam, SVP & CFO, explained that supply constraints from packer cutbacks, halted Mexican cattle imports, and reduced Brazilian beef imports are driving prices. He believes current double-digit increases are unsustainable due to consumer affordability limits and potential demand destruction. He stated that if high prices persist and demand remains strong, Darden would consider taking more price, though it's not their preferred path.

Peter Saleh asked for more details on the drivers of the recent increase in beef prices, why Darden believes these prices are unsustainable, and the strategy for pricing at LongHorn Steakhouse if beef prices remain elevated.

Answer

Raj Vennam, CFO, attributed higher beef prices to supply constraints from packer cutbacks, halted Mexican cattle imports due to screw worm, and reduced Brazilian beef imports due to tariffs. He believes these prices are unsustainable due to punitive consumer impact and expected demand destruction, despite consistent cattle on feed. He stated that if high prices persist and demand remains strong, Darden would consider taking more price, though it's not their preferred path.

Peter Saleh of BTIG asked for a profile of the Olive Garden Uber Direct customer, inquiring if they are new or higher-income. He also sought clarification on whether future reinvestments would focus more on lower pricing or on quality enhancements.

Answer

President & CEO Rick Cardenas described the Uber Direct customer as younger, slightly higher-income, and often a new or lapsed guest, with minimal overlap with dine-in patrons. He clarified that reinvestments are multifaceted and could include pricing actions, but also enhancing affordability through menu mix and investing in labor to improve the service experience.

Peter Saleh asked for details on the spending behavior of the incremental customers acquired through the Uber Direct partnership and inquired about any recent changes in labor availability.

Answer

President and CEO Ricardo Cardenas clarified that delivery guests, acquired via Olive Garden's site with Uber Direct, are typically younger, have higher incomes, and show little overlap with dine-in customers. Their average check is about 20% higher than a standard to-go order, and 12% of these sales are for large party items. He also stated that labor availability remains strong due to the company's attractive employment proposition.

Peter Saleh inquired about the accounting for the Uber Eats partnership at Olive Garden, its impact on guidance, and the reason for the 5-unit increase in the new restaurant opening outlook.

Answer

Executive Rajesh Vennam explained that while delivery fees are included in sales, the financial impact from the 100-restaurant pilot is currently 'miniscule' and not a material factor in guidance. He clarified that the increase in the new unit forecast is entirely due to the inclusion of the recently acquired Chuy's brand.

Peter Saleh asked for clarification on whether the entire Olive Garden menu, including limited-time offers, would be available for delivery through the Uber partnership. He also inquired about the specific consumer cohort or need state the new delivery service is intended to target.

Answer

President and CEO Rick Cardenas confirmed that the entire food menu is available for delivery, with the exceptions of alcohol and the dine-in-only Never Ending Pasta Bowl promotion. He explained that the initiative is not targeting a specific daypart like lunch or dinner, but rather a consumer need state centered on convenience. The service is for guests who value having their food brought to them and are willing to pay a transparent fee for that service.

Peter Saleh asked about UNFI's capital allocation strategy and capital returns going forward, specifically whether the company will continue to focus on deleveraging once it reaches its target of 2.5 times net leverage by year-end, or if it will consider more capital returns to shareholders.

Answer

Matteo Tarditi (President and CFO, UNFI) affirmed that UNFI's capital allocation and free cash flow application remain solely focused on deleveraging, with a goal of 2.5 times or lower by year-end 2026 and two times or less by 2027. He highlighted the $100 million year-over-year improvement in Q1 free cash flow from better EBITDA and working capital. He also noted that Q1 CapEx was low by design, with the full $250 million annual outlook still planned for maintenance, modernization, safety, technology, and growth investments.

Peter Saleh inquired about UNFI's capital allocation strategy and potential capital returns to shareholders, given the company's progress in deleveraging to 3.2 times and its target of 2.5 times by year-end. He asked if the focus would remain on deleveraging or shift towards shareholder returns once the target is met.

Answer

President and CFO Matteo Tarditi affirmed that UNFI's capital allocation and application of free cash flow remain *solely focused on deleveraging and reducing debt*, with a target of 2.5 times or lower by year-end 2026 and 2 times or less by 2027. He highlighted a $100 million year-over-year improvement in Q1 cash performance due to better EBITDA and working capital management. Matteo Tarditi also noted that Q1 CapEx was low by design, with the $250 million full-year outlook covering maintenance, modernization, safety, technology, and growth investments.

Peter Saleh of BTIG asked if the retail environment for beef was highly promotional, contributing to inflation, or if it was primarily a supply issue. He also inquired whether construction costs were being impacted by tariffs.

Answer

Michael Bailen, Senior Director & Head of IR, responded that while retailers are marketing beef, they are not being irrational or using it as a loss leader; rather, resilient consumer demand is meeting tight supply. Interim CFO Keith Humpich added that tariffs have not yet impacted construction costs due to existing inventory, but the company is evaluating future effects.

Peter Saleh asked for clarification on whether the increased commodity guidance was solely due to tariffs and requested key learnings from the recent guest study on the Bubba's 33 brand.

Answer

Executive Michael Bailen clarified that the guidance increase reflected both the impact of tariffs and a higher inflation outlook for beef. CEO Gerald Morgan shared that the Bubba's 33 study confirmed its 'food for all' message resonates well, with guests appreciating the family-friendly, high-energy sports atmosphere.

Peter Saleh of BTIG asked if grocery store promotions are factoring into the 2025 commodity inflation outlook, inquired about tariff exposure, and asked about the strategy for the new share buyback authorization.

Answer

CFO David Monroe said that grocery promotions have not changed demonstrably and that the updated inflation guidance is driven by supplier outlooks, not retail demand. CEO Gerald Morgan stated they are monitoring tariff discussions through their D.C. contacts. Regarding the buyback, David Monroe described it as part of a balanced and opportunistic approach to capital returns, consistent with past practice.

Peter Saleh from BTIG asked if recent severe weather impacted the strong same-store sales trajectory. He also sought clarification on the messaging around labor hour growth expectations for 2025.

Answer

CFO David Monroe acknowledged that storms caused temporary store closures but said sales saw a strong 'bounce back' afterward, resulting in minimal net impact on the quarter's robust comps. Regarding labor, CEO Gerald Morgan clarified they are not signaling a specific ratio for 2025 but affirmed that operators will staff their restaurants appropriately to handle high volumes, and the company will learn what the new ratio looks like as the year progresses.

Peter Saleh from BTIG questioned the capital allocation strategy regarding share repurchases in light of the potential PFG transaction. He also asked for specifics on the $110 million cost of goods savings, including how much would be reinvested versus flowing to the bottom line and by how much the 2027 target would be exceeded.

Answer

CFO Dirk Locascio declined to comment on the PFG matter but stated that the Q2 share repurchase of $250 million is a 'good proxy' for the company's ongoing capital deployment strategy. Regarding cost savings, Locascio did not specify the reinvestment amount or the new 2027 target, but reiterated the company's high confidence in exceeding the original $260 million goal and noted that reinvestment is a normal part of driving customer value.

Peter Saleh asked about current trends in independent restaurant formations versus closures. He also inquired about the drivers behind the modestly higher inflation outlook, which seems counterintuitive in a soft macroeconomic environment.

Answer

CFO Dirk Locascio explained that while new restaurant formations have declined over the past 15-18 months, closures have also declined, resulting in a relatively steady state. Regarding inflation, he clarified that the increase is narrowly driven by protein and eggs, while the broader grocery category remains stable and only modestly inflationary, keeping the overall rate manageable.

Peter Saleh from BTIG followed up on the tariff discussion, asking if private label brands have a different level of import exposure compared to branded products. He also requested an update on the MOXe digital platform and whether the previously mentioned case uplift per order was still being realized.

Answer

CEO David Flitman stated that the import exposure for private label products is about equal to that of branded products. He also confirmed that the MOXe platform continues to deliver a case uplift in the range of 1 to 2 cases per order, consistent with previous commentary.

Peter Saleh asked about the reception to the recent sales force compensation changes and inquired about the progress toward the long-term goal for indirect cost savings.

Answer

CEO David Flitman reported that the compensation changes were received "very well" and are successfully aligning the sales force with strategic goals like growing exclusive brand sales. He also confirmed the company is on track to achieve its $60 million run-rate savings target from indirect spend by 2027, with $20 million expected this year.

Peter Saleh of BTIG asked for more detail on the reported increase in app conversions and for insights into the behavior of the 2.7 million new loyalty members, such as their order frequency and spending habits.

Answer

President & CEO Todd Penegor detailed the success of the revamped loyalty program, noting the 2.7 million new members are showing increased engagement and faster repeat purchases. EVP & CFO Ravi Thanawala added that app conversion is up several hundred basis points over the last year due to an improved user experience, with more personalization and AI-driven enhancements planned.

Peter Saleh of BTIG inquired about any changes to the U.S. development incentives for 2025 and asked about the Papa Rewards loyalty program, specifically regarding new member acquisition and their customer profile.

Answer

President and CEO Todd Penegor confirmed the development incentive moved from a 5-year to a 3-year royalty abatement as planned. Regarding loyalty, he noted the program is successfully driving faster repeat purchases and growing its overall member base. CFO Ravi Thanawala added that loyalty accounts are up year-over-year, with a meaningful pickup from lapsed consumers, particularly in the carryout channel.

Peter Saleh inquired about the success of development incentives and plans for 2025, and also asked for the reason behind the wide Q4 operating income guidance range.

Answer

CFO and EVP, International Ravi Thanawala emphasized that reducing build-out costs to approximately $500,000 was a key driver for development. President and CEO Todd Penegor added that the wide guidance range for Q4 was intentional to provide flexibility for continued investments aimed at building momentum into the new year, including testing digital programs.

Peter Saleh from BTIG asked about the sustainability of the strong gross margin, which was the highest in about six years, and questioned whether this represents a new normal. He also inquired about the observed impact of tariffs.

Answer

CFO James Leddy attributed the margin strength to a combination of shedding low-margin Hardee's business and early benefits from strategic initiatives related to pricing, procurement, and digital growth. He emphasized that the company focuses on gross profit dollar growth, with margin percentage being an output. CEO Christopher Pappas added that while they have seen impacts from EU tariffs, deflation in other categories like chocolate and olive oil has helped moderate the overall effect.

Peter Saleh of BTIG inquired about any potential slowdown in new restaurant formation and requested a performance update on the Chefs' Warehouse Middle East business.

Answer

James Leddy, CFO, and Christopher Pappas, Founder, Chairman and CEO, confirmed they are not seeing a slowdown in new restaurant openings, viewing the trend as a tailwind for their business. Regarding the Middle East, Mr. Pappas reported that the business is performing great, continues to see strong growth, and is exceeding expectations, supported by the opening of a new facility at the end of last year.

Peter Saleh requested an update on labor availability and wage inflation for 2025, as well as the outlook for general commodity inflation. He also asked for an update on the sales force, including investment, growth rate, and talent sourcing.

Answer

CEO Christopher Pappas addressed the questions, stating that commodity inflation is tracking in the 2-3% range, excluding significant headwinds from eggs and chocolate. He noted that labor has stabilized and is not the headwind it was post-COVID, as the company pays competitively. Regarding the sales force, Pappas highlighted that they hire from kitchens, front-of-house, and other fields, with a focus on retention through investments in training, HR, and recruiting to build a diverse and experienced team.

Peter Saleh inquired how customers use the company differently in mature versus new markets and asked if acquisitions are included in the financial bridge to 2028.

Answer

CEO Chris Pappas explained that in mature markets like New York, they serve as a 'one-stop shop' across all categories, which is the long-term goal for newer markets where customers may initially focus on just specialty or protein. CFO Jim Leddy confirmed that the 2028 financial targets are based purely on organic growth, as acquisitions are opportunistic and not modeled in.

Peter Saleh from BTIG asked for commentary on why the overall U.S. pizza category was flat in the first half of the year and requested context on Domino's performance across different consumer income cohorts.

Answer

CEO Russell Weiner attributed the category's flatness to broad QSR headwinds but stressed that Domino's is built to thrive in a value-driven environment, allowing it to play offense and gain share. He also confirmed that in Q2, Domino's experienced sales growth across all income cohorts, including the low-income segment.

Peter Saleh questioned the company's confidence in its guidance for 175 net new domestic stores in 2025, particularly in light of potential tariff impacts on construction costs and equipment availability.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Sandeep Reddy reaffirmed the guidance, citing best-in-class franchisee economics and a robust development pipeline. He stated that any potential tariff impact is not expected to be material. Chief Executive Officer Russell Weiner added that the U.S. pipeline is stronger now than at the same time last year.

Peter Saleh from BTIG inquired about the third-party aggregator strategy, asking if the $1 billion incremental revenue goal by the end of 2026 is still on track and what key learnings from the Uber Eats partnership will inform future aggregator rollouts.

Answer

CEO Russell Weiner confirmed the company is still bullish on the $1 billion opportunity, though the timing might be pushed out slightly as they have purposely managed the rollout to optimize for high incrementality. Key learnings include optimizing marketing and faster technology integration.

Peter Saleh from BTIG asked for more elaboration on the sales weakness observed by income cohorts, particularly the lower-income guest. He also inquired about how the 'Emergency Pizza' promotion last year resonated across different income levels to gauge its potential impact in Q4.

Answer

CEO Russell Weiner specified that the softness was primarily seen with lower-income customers on the delivery side of the business, while overall order counts remained positive. Regarding 'Emergency Pizza 2.0,' he acknowledged it has 'big shoes to fill' but expressed excitement for the new version of the program, suggesting it is well-designed to lap the successful prior-year promotion.

Peter Saleh of BTIG requested more details on the updated food-at-home inflation forecast, which was raised from 1% to 2%, asking about the key drivers and the company's confidence in the new outlook.

Answer

EVP & CFO Jason Monaco responded that the change reflects a slow, broad-based upward migration in inflation across categories rather than a steep incline in any specific area. He noted there is no 'smoking gun' and that the underlying business is simply running at a slightly higher inflation rate, though the net impact is somewhat blunted by a rising promotional environment.

Peter Saleh of BTIG requested more details on the updated food-at-home inflation forecast, which was raised from 1% to 2% for the year, asking what specific factors or categories are driving this change.

Answer

EVP & CFO Jason Monaco responded that the revised 2% inflation forecast reflects a slow but broad-based upward trend observed across both wholesale and retail segments. He clarified that there is no single category driving the increase, but rather a general market migration upwards, which is being partially blunted by a simultaneous rise in promotional activity.

Peter Saleh of BTIG requested more detail on the company's decision to raise its full-year food-at-home inflation expectation from 1% to 2%, asking about the key drivers behind the change.

Answer

EVP & CFO Jason Monaco explained that the revised 2% inflation forecast reflects current market trends. He clarified that the increase is broad-based across categories rather than being driven by a single factor. Monaco also noted that the net impact on consumers is somewhat blunted by a simultaneous rise in the promotional environment.

Peter Saleh of BTIG requested more detail on the updated food-at-home inflation forecast, which was raised from 1% to 2% for the fiscal year, asking about the specific drivers behind this change.

Answer

EVP & CFO Jason Monaco explained that the revised 2% inflation forecast reflects a slow, broad-based upward trend observed in the marketplace rather than a spike in any single category. He noted that this underlying inflation is occurring alongside a rising promotional environment, which blunts the net price impact for consumers.

Peter Saleh inquired about the recent build-out of the U.S. foodservice team, asking for details on its new focus and how its strategy will differ from prior years.

Answer

CEO Ethan Brown stated that the U.S. foodservice team is now more fully built out after a difficult period. The new strategy focuses on securing wins with smaller, national accounts, a tier below massive QSR chains. While acknowledging that foodservice is sensitive to consumer spending, he expects to see improved performance and encouraging news from this refocused team as the year progresses.

Peter Saleh from BTIG asked for an update on consumer health perception metrics, which had previously declined, and questioned if the long-term 30% gross margin target is achievable without a significant rebound in category growth.

Answer

CEO Ethan Brown responded that health perception for the Beyond Meat brand is improving due to product reformulations and health-focused messaging. On margins, CFO Lubi Kutua and CEO Ethan Brown explained that the target is not solely dependent on category growth. They believe they can achieve it by gaining market share, expanding distribution within stores, and executing on significant operating expense reductions, which is the core of their plan to reach EBITDA positivity by the end of 2026.

Peter Saleh inquired about the sustainability of the Q3 gross margin rate of 17.7% into 2025 and asked for more details on the planned capital raise.

Answer

CEO Ethan Brown stated he does not expect gross margins to move backwards and sees potential for improvement in 2025, citing network consolidation, cost reductions, and pricing power. CFO Lubi Kutua confirmed the company intends to use its ATM program to add liquidity by year-end and is evaluating a more holistic balance sheet restructuring for 2025.

Peter Saleh of BTIG asked how margins were protected despite weak comps and whether accelerated unit growth plans account for potential increases in build costs due to tariffs.

Answer

CEO Robert Lynch explained that margins were preserved through disciplined execution on controllables, achieving record labor attainment and the lowest-ever waste levels. Regarding development, he expressed high confidence, stating they will open a record number of Shacks and are on track to reduce build costs by at least 10% this year, despite tariff concerns, noting recent openings have set sales records.

Peter Saleh of BTIG followed up on advertising, asking how the strategy might differ in 2025 and if it could include more direct call-to-action or price-point advertising.

Answer

CEO Rob Lynch stated that such tactics 'could be' in the cards for later in 2025 or early 2026. He explained that the immediate focus is on foundational brand positioning work to distill Shake Shack's core message. Once that strategic brief is finalized, they will explore leveraging it for more direct promotions. He noted that while they have used targeted digital incentives, they have not done much price-pointed advertised promotion, and it is something they are looking at.

Peter Saleh of BTIG asked about the drivers of the strong Q4 restaurant-level margin guidance of 22% and how to frame the margin outlook for 2025.

Answer

CFO Katie Fogertey attributed the strong Q4 margin guidance to top-line momentum combined with ongoing supply chain and operational efficiencies. She noted a slightly more muted inflationary environment compared to the prior year but cautioned that the timing of new store openings could cause noise. The company declined to provide 2025 guidance, citing puts and takes around inflation, particularly beef.

Peter Saleh requested more color on the consumer environment in Western Europe, asking if recent incremental inflation has led to any changes in consumer behavior in core markets.

Answer

CEO Stéfan Descheemaeker described the consumer environment as gradually improving but not yet back to pre-crisis levels. He noted that any new inflation is minor compared to 2022. A key positive trend he highlighted is that branded products are regaining market share from private label, suggesting consumers are returning to brands for perceived quality, a dynamic reflected in the company's guidance.

Peter Saleh inquired about the same-store sales trajectory during Q3 and the outlook for Q4, asking what marketing adjustments proved effective. He also sought confirmation on the implementation status and P&L flow-through of the $10 million store-level and $4 million G&A cost savings, and questioned the company's pricing strategy for the next six months.

Answer

CFO Anthony Querciagrossa explained that Q3 comps improved from double-digits down to -7.7% in the final month, driven by a rebound in the events business, though promotions created a 300 basis point headwind. He noted that while weather impacted Q4, trends are rebounding. Executive Dale Schwartz confirmed that both the $10 million and $4 million annualized cost savings initiatives are fully implemented and will be completely reflected in Q4 results. Regarding pricing, Schwartz stated there are no plans for material price increases on private events, but the company continues to use dynamic pricing for gaming and targeted promotions for open play.

Asked for details on the recent same-store sales improvement, the reasons for sales volatility, and a breakdown of the quarterly comp between pricing and traffic.

Answer

The recent comp improvement was primarily driven by the events business, which can be lumpy and contribute to volatility, a situation amplified by the current macro environment. For Q2, a 2% menu price increase was entirely offset by promotional pricing, meaning the 9.4% comp decline was all traffic-related. The decline was most pronounced in the middle four weeks of the quarter.

Peter Saleh of BTIG asked about the early success of the '$1 any size soft drink' promotion and whether this offer is limited to Q4 or might extend into 2025.

Answer

CEO Kirk Tanner highlighted that the promotion effectively celebrates their beverage platform, especially the Coca-Cola Freestyle machine. He confirmed the promotion is driving momentum in Q4 as part of a broader focus on the profitable beverage category but declined to comment on specific plans for 2025.

Peter Saleh inquired about Drive Shack's capital raise options, the expected timing for securing new financing, the status of the Rory McIlroy partnership, the revised Puttery development pipeline, and the outlook for the Randall's Island project.

Answer

President and CEO Hana Khouri confirmed the company is no longer considering an asset sale and is actively pursuing debt financing, which she expects to secure by the end of Q1 2023 at the latest. Regarding the McIlroy partnership, a decision on a potential investment upsize is anticipated by the end of the year. Khouri also outlined the plan to open five Puttery venues in 2023, staggered across the first three quarters, and noted that the Randall's Island project remains under evaluation.

Peter Saleh inquired about the capital allocation for the remaining 2022 Puttery openings, the dependency of 2023 development on new capital, the reasons for the Puttery EBITDA margin decline, the expected run-rate margin, potential changes to the Puttery concept, and data on repeat customer visits.

Answer

President and CEO Hana Khouri confirmed that capital for the four 2022 Puttery openings is already allocated. She explained that 2023 development will be funded by a combination of operating cash flow and new capital, which the company is actively pursuing. Khouri attributed the Q2 EBITDA margin decline to a one-time inventory true-up related to the point-of-sale system, which has been fixed, and expects run-rate margins to be around 35%. She noted they are exploring smaller venue formats and pricing bundles, and while the beverage menu is strong, they aim to enhance food sales. Repeat reservations are at a strong 11% for venues open less than a year.

Peter Saleh asked for clarification on the profitability of the new Puttery venues, the opening timeline for the seven planned 2022 locations, and the reasons behind the different revenue mixes and event performance between The Colony and Charlotte locations.

Answer

CEO Hana Khouri confirmed that both initial Puttery venues achieved positive venue-level EBITDA in Q4 2021. She projected that most of the seven new venues would open in Q3 and Q4 of 2022, with the D.C. location potentially opening by the end of Q2. Khouri explained that Charlotte's revenue mix is expected to normalize over time, similar to what was initially seen at The Colony. The disparity in event revenue was attributed to The Colony's September opening, which allowed it to capture holiday party bookings, whereas Charlotte's mid-December opening missed that window.

Peter Saleh of BTIG inquired about the construction status and opening confidence for the four Puttery venues planned for Q4 2022. He also asked about the optimal size and format for future Puttery locations, given the differing sizes but similar economics of the Dallas and Charlotte venues. Additionally, he questioned the expected seasonality of the Puttery business and sought details on the company's capital raise plans, including timing and the number of units that can be opened with current capital.

Answer

President and CEO Hana Khouri confirmed that all 2022 venues are well underway, with supply chain considerations pushing several openings to Q4, but she remains confident in the timeline. She noted that the success of the smaller Charlotte venue suggests a 2-course model is highly effective, and future venues may not need to be as large as the 4-course Colony location. Khouri also affirmed that the expected seasonality pattern, with a Q1 dip and Q4 peak, is holding true. Executive Kelley Buchhorn added that the company has liquidity for 5 of the 7 planned 2022 openings and is actively working with an advisory firm on a $75 million financing initiative to fund the remainder and the start of 2023 development, with an update expected in Q3.