Philip Ng

Philip Ng asked about the expectation for operating leverage in the business from 2027 onwards, given current record margins and the anticipated winding down of startup costs. He also inquired about the current market conditions in Brazil, including any signs of destocking or trade-down to refillable glass, and sought an outlook for Brazil's volume growth in 2026.

Answer

Tim Donahue, Chairman, President and CEO, emphasized Crown's focus on earning appropriate returns on capital rather than just volume, aiming to generate more absolute margin and cash flow in the future. He noted that percentage margins might contract if aluminum prices remain elevated due to the denominator effect, but absolute margins should grow. For Brazil, he acknowledged weaker consumer sentiment and a shift towards larger bottles but expressed long-term positivity, suggesting a 3% growth rate for the industry and Crown in 2026, though noting it was early in the year.

Philip Ng asked about Crown Holdings' expectations for operating leverage and absolute margin growth in 2027 and beyond, considering record margins and winding down startup costs. He also sought insights into the Brazil market, including any signs of destocking, consumer weakness, trade-down to refillable glass, and the 2026 growth outlook.

Answer

Tim Donahue, Chairman, President and CEO, emphasized the company's focus on earning appropriate returns on capital and generating more absolute margin and cash flow, rather than just percentage margins which can be misleading due to raw material pass-through. He expressed confidence in continued success over the next five years. Regarding Brazil, Donahue acknowledged weaker consumer spending and a shift towards larger bottles but maintained a positive long-term outlook, suggesting a 3% industry and Crown growth for 2026 as an early estimate.

Phil Ng asked about Crown Holdings' positioning to service North American demand in 2026, given tight inventory and being sold out in summer months, and if upcoming contract renewals present an opportunity to sustain or build profitability. He also inquired about the ability to service strong European demand and the expected timing for new lines in Greece.

Answer

President and CEO Tim Donahue stated that Crown Holdings expects to be able to service North American demand in 2026 and is not unhappy with its margin profile, acknowledging the competitive nature of the business. For Europe, he confirmed ongoing capacity additions, including modernizing a facility in Greece with two new, higher-speed lines expected to be completed early next year, and other incremental capacity additions being explored. Donahue reiterated that mid-single-digit growth is a reasonable long-term expectation for Europe.

Philip Ng asked about the North American market's momentum, the expectation for growth in 2026, and the company's ability to service demand given tight inventory this year. He also inquired about contract renewals as an opportunity to sustain profitability. For Europe, he asked about servicing demand amidst strong growth and tight capacity, and the 2026 outlook.

Answer

President and CEO Tim Donahue confirmed expectations for North American growth in 2026 and the company's ability to service demand, noting satisfaction with the current margin profile. In Europe, he highlighted ongoing capacity additions, including two new lines in Greece expected early next year, and reiterated a long-term growth rate of 4-5%.

Philip Ng asked about North American customer behavior and order patterns in light of aluminum tariffs and other cost pressures, and also sought color on the situation in Brazil. He followed up by asking about capital deployment priorities given the company's strong balance sheet and free cash flow generation.

Answer

President & CEO Timothy Donahue stated that cost increases are ultimately passed to the consumer, who has not yet backed off from purchasing beverage cans. He noted strong promotional activity from customers despite the cost environment. For Brazil, he suggested a potentially softer Q3 but a stronger Q4. On capital deployment, Donahue prioritized servicing customers and pursuing growth projects, with the number one priority beyond that being the return of cash to shareholders.

Philip Ng inquired about demand trends in March and April, sought an update on North American market performance expectations for 2025 and 2026, and asked about order and quoting activity in the Transit Packaging segment, including any tariff-related supply chain issues.

Answer

CEO Timothy Donahue confirmed that strong Q1 demand has continued through April, anticipating a tight supply situation in North American and European beverage can markets this summer. He reiterated expectations to perform in line with the market in 2025 and outperform in 2026. For the Transit segment, Donahue noted that while quoting activity is high, actual orders are slow due to customer caution. He estimated the direct tariff impact on this business to be less than $10 million.

Philip Ng of Jefferies inquired about the drivers behind the strong performance in the Americas Beverage segment, the 2025 outlook, and the company's capital allocation strategy, including the potential timing and split of share buybacks versus debt reduction.

Answer

President and CEO Timothy Donahue attributed the Americas' strength to growing business in South America and strong holiday demand in North America. For 2025, he noted that while North American volume is modeled flat, there will be some PPI giveback to customers. Regarding capital allocation, Donahue stated the company would use its ~$800 million in free cash flow for dividends and then split the remainder roughly 50-50 between debt reduction and share repurchases, with the potential to adjust based on market valuation. Executive Kevin Clothier added that buybacks would likely occur in the first half of the year.

Philip Ng inquired about European market trends amid a potentially weaker consumer and asked about the remaining runway for margin improvement across the company into 2025 and 2026.

Answer

President and CEO Timothy Donahue acknowledged the European consumer is weaker but noted that Crown's business benefited from restocking, a strong tourism season, and continued substrate shift from glass to can. He stated that a large part of the expected Q4 outperformance will come from European recovery. Regarding margins, Donahue used a golf analogy, suggesting the 'low-hanging fruit' is gone and further gains will be harder. He emphasized that future profit growth will require market volume growth, as the company's own share gains have largely settled.

Philip Ng inquired about the early read on the spring selling season, including traffic, customer orders, and inventory management across different channels, particularly for REITs. He also sought clarification on the nuances between the House and Senate bills concerning manufactured homes, such as the steel chassis, and the expected timing of legislative progress.

Answer

Tim Larson (CEO) noted Q3 order growth would benefit Q4, anticipating potential consumer support from tax relief and rate trends. He highlighted calibrated inventory management with community partners for quick response. He clarified that the House bill still includes HUD homes without a chassis, similar to the Senate bill, and expects bipartisan support, though legislative timing remains uncertain.

Philip Ng from Jefferies asked for an early read on the spring selling season, including trends in traffic, orders, and customer inventory management, particularly for REITs. He also sought clarification on the perceived steadiness of consumer and REIT partner views and detailed nuances between the House and Senate bills related to manufactured homes, including next steps and timing for legislative progress.

Answer

CEO Tim Larson noted that Q3 order growth would benefit Q4, signaling year-over-year growth for the quarter, and expressed hope for favorable consumer trends from tax relief and interest rates, balanced with macro choppiness. He emphasized calibrated inventory management with community channel partners, allowing for quick responses to opportunities. Mr. Larson confirmed a balanced approach with community customers, acknowledging market-specific pacing. Regarding legislation, he clarified that while the Senate bill's chassis element was not included in the defense bill, the House bill still includes HUD homes without a chassis. He highlighted strong bipartisan support for affordable housing but cautioned that the legislative process will take time, with a hopeful target of sometime this year.

Philip Ng asked about order trends by channel, inventory levels in captive retail, and the expected impact on gross margin from input costs and tariffs.

Answer

President & CEO Tim Larson noted solid quoting activity but slower conversions in the independent channel and confirmed the company is actively managing inventory in its captive retail stores. EVP, CFO & Treasurer Lori Hough stated that lower material costs should remain a tailwind and that the estimated 1% impact from tariffs on material costs is being managed through sourcing and pricing where possible.

Philip Ng asked for an update on order trends and inventory levels across different channels, the expected timeline for clearing excess inventory in captive retail, and the outlook for input costs and tariff impacts on gross margin.

Answer

President & CEO Tim Larson noted solid quoting activity but slower order conversions in the independent channel, alongside a deliberate effort to work through inventory in the captive retail channel. EVP & CFO Laurie Hough added that lower material costs should remain a tailwind, and the estimated unmitigated tariff impact is about 1% of material costs, which the company plans to offset through alternative sourcing and pricing where possible.

Philip Ng of Jefferies Financial Group asked about the potential impact of tariffs on the near-term margin guidance and whether the company has the ability to implement price increases to offset inflation. He also inquired about the Eisman Homes acquisition, specifically the opportunity for margin improvement and whether the stated $40 million in revenue is entirely incremental.

Answer

EVP, CFO & Treasurer Laurie Hough stated that the company is not currently seeing a significant tariff impact and that pricing decisions are made at a local level based on market conditions. President & CEO Tim Larson explained that while Eisman is an existing customer, there are significant opportunities to grow volume and drive accretive growth, similar to the Regional Homes acquisition. He noted the acquisition strategically expands their Midwest presence.

Philip Ng from Jefferies inquired about the potential operational and financial impact of tariffs on materials from Mexico, Canada, and China. He also asked about the strategy for expanding the captive retail channel and whether there have been any FEMA orders following recent natural disasters.

Answer

CEO Tim Larson stated that the company has a playbook to manage dynamic tariffs by balancing cost, price, and volume, and feels their supply chain is balanced to handle operational flow. Regarding retail, he described the captive channel as an 'additive approach' that complements independent retailers, using a family of brands to avoid channel conflict. On disaster relief, Larson confirmed outreach to federal and local authorities regarding the Carolinas and California, but no specific FEMA orders have been placed yet, though the company is prepared to respond.

Philip Ng asked about cement price competition in regions beyond Texas, particularly the West, and the progress of announced price increases. He also questioned whether wallboard price weakness was due to destocking or normal demand trends, and how the acquisition of two large pro distribution customers by Big Box retailers might alter procurement dynamics in 2026.

Answer

CEO Michael Haack confirmed satisfaction with other markets, noting that price increases have been announced across most of the network, with timing (January or April) to be determined by individual market conversations. CFO Craig Kesler clarified that wallboard weakness was not destocking-related, but rather normal demand trends, expecting prices to remain range-bound with potential for further modest declines. Regarding the Big Box acquisitions, Mr. Kesler stated it was too early to definitively assess changes in procurement dynamics, as the integration of different business models is still unfolding.

Philip Ng from Jefferies asked about cement price competition beyond Texas, particularly in the West, the early progress and traction of announced January cement price increases, the drivers behind wallboard price weakness and potential for stabilization, and how the acquisition of pro distribution customers by Big Box retailers might alter procurement dynamics in 2026.

Answer

Michael Haack, President and CEO, stated that other markets are in good structural position, with price increase timing being the current focus for January or April implementation. Craig Kesler, CFO, attributed wallboard price weakness to demand levels, not destocking, and expects prices to remain range-bound with potential for further modest declines, but not drastic swings. He noted it's too early to definitively assess the impact of Big Box ownership on pro distribution relationships due to differing business models.

Philip Ng of Jefferies Financial Group sought clarification on the cement pricing outlook and asked about the potential cash flow and tax implications from recent legislation and major capital projects.

Answer

CEO Michael Haack clarified that his pricing optimism is focused on the mid-to-long term, while the near-term is more paced. EVP & CFO Craig Kesler confirmed that the extension of accelerated depreciation will significantly lower future cash taxes and provide a 'nice boost to cash flow' as the Mountain Cement and Duke projects come online.

Philip Ng asked for an update on cement demand activity post-weather, the progress of April cement price increases, and whether wallboard orders were choppy, along with channel inventory levels.

Answer

CFO D. Kesler confirmed that cement volumes began to improve in March and April as weather cleared, showing positive year-over-year trends. He deferred specific comments on the April price increase until the next earnings call. Regarding wallboard, Kesler acknowledged demand has been choppy for a couple of years due to the muted housing environment and stated that channel inventory is not a major factor as wallboard is a perishable product.

Philip Ng asked about the potential impact of political changes on IIJA funding and cement tariffs. He also asked if Eagle has observed any slowdown in public projects or changes in wallboard order trends.

Answer

CFO D. Kesler stated that despite political "noise," they do not expect a significant impact on infrastructure spending relevant to Eagle. He noted tariffs would raise the cost of imported cement but not directly impact Eagle. He confirmed they have not seen a pause in public project activity and that wallboard trends remain steady with no dramatic swings.

Philip Ng asked about the drivers of the January order pickup, including destocking reversal and its broad-based nature, and how to interpret bookings/billings spread. He questioned if running full implies better industry box demand and PCA's relative performance. He also asked if the Greif LTM EBITDA and synergy framework remains accurate.

Answer

President Tom Hassfurther explained the January order pickup is primarily due to customers preparing for more demand, with some destocking reversal, and is broad-based. He confirmed PCA expects demand to be up this year and will perform as usual relative to total demand. Tom Hassfurther affirmed the Greif LTM EBITDA and $20 million run-rate synergies by Q2 framework remains accurate, with more synergy opportunities expected.

Philip Ng from Jefferies asked about the drivers behind the January order pickup, specifically if it was due to inventory destocking reversal or broader market improvements, and how to interpret the spread between bookings and billings. He also inquired about the expected box shipments for PCA to run full out in 2026 and sought an update on the Greif deal's expected EPS accretion and synergy targets.

Answer

President Tom Hassfurther attributed the January order pickup primarily to customers preparing for more demand rather than just inventory restocking, noting a much more positive feeling across the board and improved demand in previously lagging segments. He confirmed that PCA expects to run its mills full out in 2026, positioned for significant growth. Tom Hassfurther also reiterated that the Greif deal is expected to be modestly accretive in Q1, with LTM EBITDA in the $240 million range and $20 million in run-rate synergies by Q2, confirming these targets remain valid.

Philip Ng asked if the strategy to reduce GRIF's elevated inventory in 2026 would lead to more downtime, potentially muting its EBITDA contribution, and if there was any friction to consider for next year. He also inquired about the proportion of PCA's box business tied to building materials and beef, whether trends in these markets were worsening or bottoming, and if order patterns were picking up in other categories. Finally, he asked if customers were planning to reduce inventory further by year-end.

Answer

CEO Mark Kowlzan assured that planned upgrades at GRIF mills would occur during normal monthly and annual outages, not requiring extended downtime, and expressed bullishness for the next few years. He noted that inventory management would provide future upside. President Tom Hassfurther declined to provide specific segment percentages but confirmed beef and building products were significant drags. He indicated beef is a long-term rebuild (70-year low herds), while building products are influenced by interest rates and remodeling is bottoming. Other segments showed steady growth and bullish customer sentiment. Tom Hassfurther added that customers are already operating at very low inventory levels, having 'peeled down about as far as they can do it' due to market uncertainties.

Philip Ng asked if 2026 would see increased downtime due to inventory reduction at Greif, potentially muting EBITDA contribution, and if there was any friction to consider for next year. He also inquired about the size of the beef and building materials segments within PCA's box business, whether trends in these markets were worsening or bottoming, and if other categories were showing order pattern improvements. Finally, he asked if customers were actively reducing inventory to close out the year.

Answer

CEO Mark Kowlzan assured that necessary upgrades at Greif mills would occur during normal monthly/annual outages, not requiring major long-term downtime, and that inventory management over the next couple of quarters represents future upside. President Tom Hassfurther declined to disclose specific segment sizes but confirmed beef and building products were significant drags, with beef being a long-term issue due to 70-year low cattle herds. He noted that remodeling was bottoming, and other segments were steady or growing, with bullish customer sentiment. Tom Hassfurther also stated that customers are already operating at very low inventory levels, having 'peeled down about as far as they can do it' due to market volatility.

John, on behalf of Philip Ng from Jefferies, asked if containerboard production would be down year-over-year in Q3 despite a sequential ramp-up. He also inquired if customers were finished destocking and about the potential for a demand snapback.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Mark Kowlzan estimated Q3 containerboard production would be down 25,000-30,000 tons year-over-year, primarily due to lower export sales. President Thomas Hassfurther confirmed that customers are through destocking and are now carrying 'incredibly lean inventories.' He reiterated that any certainty in the global economy or a domestic interest rate drop could cause demand to 'open up quite dramatically.'

Philip Ng asked if production would need to be curtailed in the second half if demand improves as expected. He also inquired about customer inventory levels in the channel and the company's appetite for share buybacks.

Answer

President Tom Hassfurther explained that the goal is to match production to demand in the second half, which is why an outage was pulled into Q2. He believes customers are operating with lean inventories and will likely restock in the second half. Regarding buybacks, CEO Mark Kowlzan acknowledged the current stock price presents an 'opportunity' and stated, 'We'll let you know what we do.'

Philip Ng inquired about the timing and financial contribution of the company's growth projects, the drivers behind PCA's market share gains, and whether product mix would be a headwind or tailwind in 2025.

Answer

CEO Mark Kowlzan said the Arizona plant will be 'immediately accretive' upon its startup in the spring, while other projects will see benefits after some initial disruption. EVP Thomas Hassfurther attributed market share gains to being a reliable, high-quality partner for existing customers, leading to expanded relationships. Kowlzan expects an 'improved richer mix' in Q1 versus Q4, driven by less e-commerce activity, which should benefit the first half of the year.

Philip Ng asked for color on the drivers behind the significant increase in operating costs, whether costs could become a tailwind in 2025, and if the strong Q3 price/mix result was driven more by mix or by faster-than-expected box price realization.

Answer

CFO Robert Mundy explained the year-over-year cost increase was primarily due to running the higher-cost Wallula mill, which was idle in Q3 2023, representing a roughly $30 million impact. Executive Vice President Thomas Hassfurther clarified that the price/mix strength was due to the disciplined and timely implementation of previously announced box price increases, most of which were realized in Q3.

Phil Ng asked about the similarities and differences in the go-to-market strategy when marrying Hardie and AZEK, inquiring about new levers available with a larger entity and portfolio, such as rebates, ease of doing business, or pricing. He also asked for any noticeable shelf space wins for 2026. He then inquired about the 'On-the-wall cost' reduction pilot programs and training, asking how to think about scaling this opportunity and any aspirational targets for the next few years.

Answer

President of AZEK Residential Jon Skelly highlighted the shared culture and downstream focus on contractor conversions, noting the combined company now has the largest sales team. The opportunity is to service the entire exterior of the home with leading brands, making them more important to customers across all channels. CEO Aaron Erter stated they are scaling the 'On-the-wall cost' reduction programs in the back half, focusing on the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, Carolinas, and Midwest for R&R, with a partnership with Boise. He believes this initiative can double ColorPlus volume and significantly increase the total addressable market.

Philip Ng of Jefferies Financial Group asked for clarification on the drivers of the North American volume decline, seeking to distinguish between the impact of single-family market softness and inventory destocking. He also inquired about the company's cost management plans in response to the challenging demand environment.

Answer

CEO Aaron Erter explained that Q1 results were anticipated, reflecting customers' more optimistic expectations in the prior quarter. He attributed the current softness to a weaker single-family new construction market and a subsequent defensive inventory posture from channel partners. For cost management, Mr. Erter highlighted the company's disciplined Hardie Operating System, which includes managing manufacturing shifts, controlling expenditures, and freezing headcount while integrating AZEK.

Philip Ng asked about the North America segment, specifically if mix will be more neutral in 2026 and if cost headwinds and inefficiencies will normalize. He also inquired about the levers for achieving record can profitability in 2027, distinguishing between cost/efficiency improvements and a potentially better pricing environment. Finally, he asked about CapEx for 2026 and how Ball plans to deploy excess cash, considering share buybacks versus other opportunities like the European market.

Answer

Daniel Fisher, CEO, stated that mix shift will be a much smaller work in progress in 2026, with 2027 being cleaner due to increased capacity from the Oregon facility. He expects an elongated improvement in underlying economics for the industry, with Ball benefiting from operating model changes, manufacturing efficiency, and AI technology for margin improvement without solely relying on customer price increases. Daniel Rabbitt, SVP and Interim CFO, indicated that share repurchases would moderate from recent high levels, but Ball will maintain a conservative balance sheet and wise capital spending. Mr. Fisher added that it's a 'yes and' to both share buybacks and other opportunities.

Philip Ng of Jefferies Financial Group inquired about Ball's capacity in North America to meet strong demand, especially with competitors running tight, and the company's contract status for 2026. He also asked for an outlook on South America, focusing on Argentina's recovery and the confidence in a second-half rebound in Brazil.

Answer

CEO Daniel Fisher explained that a new facility in the Northwest and a recent acquisition in Florida will provide capacity relief, though the ability to use their Monterrey plant is a wildcard due to tariffs. For South America, he attributed Q2 strength to recoveries in Argentina and Chile. Fisher expressed confidence in Brazil's H2 rebound, citing historical patterns of their main customer regaining market share.

Philip Ng inquired about Ball's capacity to meet strong North American demand and the drivers behind the robust performance and outlook for the South American segment, particularly Brazil.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Daniel Fisher noted that a new Northwest facility will help with tight capacity, though the ability to use its Monterrey plant is a wildcard due to tariffs. He expects to run full-out and grow with the market. For South America, he attributed Q2 strength to recovery in Argentina and Chile, and expressed confidence in Brazil's second-half performance based on a key customer's plans to regain market share.

Philip Ng questioned Ball's capacity to meet strong North American demand and inquired about the 2026 contract setup. He also asked for an update on South America, focusing on Argentina's recovery and the outlook for Brazil in the second half.

Answer

CEO Daniel Fisher noted that a new facility in the Northwest will add capacity, though the use of their Monterrey plant is a wildcard due to tariffs. He expressed confidence in meeting demand and growing with the market. For South America, Fisher explained that Q2 benefited from an easy comparison due to recovery in Argentina and Chile, and confidence in a Brazil rebound is based on a key customer's plans to accelerate growth in the second half.

Philip Ng asked about North American demand trends for the summer, the potential for pricing in a tightening European market, and whether Ball has spare capacity to gain share in North America.

Answer

CEO Daniel Fisher reported a positive start to the quarter in North America and believes low single-digit growth is realistic for the year. He stated that in Europe, the focus is on growth and efficiency rather than price increases, given already strong margins. For North America, he clarified that the system is tight after capacity reductions, and while the Florida plant helps, there isn't significant excess capacity for major share gains.

Philip Ng questioned the source of confidence for North American volume growth, asking if a recent major contract renewal included share gains and how Ball's go-to-market strategy is evolving to capture growth from smaller, innovative brands.

Answer

CEO Daniel Fisher attributed confidence to lapping prior-year market dislocations and securing volume with a key partner that is expected to grow faster than their broader portfolio. Regarding strategy, he stated that while Ball works with innovative brands like Liquid Death, significant growth is ultimately driven by the performance of its largest customers.

Phil Ng inquired about the progression of bookings and backlogs over the year, particularly for non-residential construction (heavy vs. light), and the momentum in infrastructure for 2026.

Answer

Ward Nye, Chairman and CEO, highlighted strong infrastructure tailwinds for 2026, with 66% of total highway and bridge cumulative obligations remaining and state DOT budgets up 6-7% year-over-year. He noted attractive heavy non-residential activity, especially in data centers, warehouses, and manufacturing. Light non-residential has shown resilience and is expected to accelerate with a housing recovery in the second half of 2026.

Phil Ng inquired about Martin Marietta's bookings and backlogs, particularly the progression of non-residential activity (heavy vs. light) and infrastructure momentum, looking ahead to 2026.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Ward Nye highlighted continued constructive infrastructure demand for 2026, with 50% of IIJA funding still to be invested and state DOT budgets in top states up 6-7%. He noted strong heavy non-residential activity, especially in data centers, warehousing, and manufacturing, with increased bidding activity. Light non-residential has shown resilience, and a recovery in single-family housing in H2 2026 is expected to further bolster it.

Philip Ng asked about aggregates pricing, questioning if there were mix headwinds from infrastructure projects, how mid-year increases were progressing, and the pricing outlook for 2026.

Answer

CEO C. Howard Nye stated they have not seen significant pricing headwinds from product mix. He confirmed mid-year increases were implemented as expected, particularly in recently acquired markets. While declining to give a specific 2026 forecast, he suggested the industry is in a 'different place' on pricing and that 2025's mid-year hikes will build momentum into next year.

Philip Ng of Jefferies Financial Group Inc. asked about the infrastructure outlook, questioning if any projects were being paused and seeking details on the potential for a new Surface Transportation Act in 2026. He specifically mentioned recent news about new funding proposals for the Highway Trust Fund, such as fees on EVs.

Answer

Chair and CEO Ward Nye stated that traditional highway projects are not being paused, with highway contract awards up 19% LTM. He noted that only 34% of IIJA highway funds have been reimbursed, indicating a long runway of spending through 2026. Regarding a successor bill, Nye sees dialogue shifting towards projects of national significance like roads and bridges. He views the proposal from House T&I Chairman Sam Graves to tax EVs as a 'much overdue conversation' to address the Highway Trust Fund's long-standing revenue issues, calling it an important and good start.

Philip Ng asked if Martin Marietta has observed any pause in projects or a slowdown in bidding activity for public infrastructure work due to political uncertainty.

Answer

CEO Ward Nye stated unequivocally that the company has not seen any slowdown in public sector activity and expects it to remain constructive. He cited robust DOT lettings in key states like Texas, Colorado, and North Carolina, noting that 8 of their top 10 states show year-over-year budget increases on a same-on-same basis. Nye emphasized that they do not anticipate choppiness in heavy non-residential or large infrastructure projects and expect a steady diet of work.

Philip Ng sought clarification on whether the Q4 aggregate volume forecast of up 5% and the preliminary 2025 low single-digit growth framework were on an organic basis or included recent acquisitions.

Answer

CEO C. Nye confirmed that both the Q4 volume forecast and the preliminary 2025 outlook are on a purely organic basis. He stated that the contributions from the new acquisitions in Southern California and South Florida have not been included and will be factored into the formal 2025 guidance to be issued in February.

Phil Ng requested more insight into the backlogs and order pace within TopBuild's Commercial & Industrial (C&I) business, including nuances between legacy and recently acquired segments like Progressive and SPI, and whether light commercial is showing signs of bottoming out. He also inquired about pricing momentum in the C&I categories, particularly mechanical insulation and commercial roofing.

Answer

Robert Buck, President and CEO, stated that C&I backlogs are growing steadily across mechanical, DI, and SPI, with Progressive (commercial roofing) also building strong backlogs from reroof maintenance and large new projects like data centers. He expressed hope that light commercial is bottoming out. Rob Kuhns, CFO, confirmed that C&I pricing has held up better, with cost increases passed along in mechanical insulation and strong pricing in commercial roofing due to robust demand.

Phil Ng requested more color on backlogs and the pace of orders in the Commercial & Industrial (C&I) business, including legacy operations and recent acquisitions like Progressive and SPI, to understand if trends are accelerating or if light commercial is bottoming out. He also asked about pricing momentum in the C&I segment, particularly for mechanical insulation and commercial roofing.

Answer

Robert Buck (President and CEO) described C&I backlogs as steady and growing across mechanical, DI, and SPI, with Progressive (commercial roofing) being a bright spot due to building backlogs in reroof, maintenance, and new large projects. He expressed hope that light commercial is bottoming out. Rob Kuhns (CFO) confirmed that pricing has held up better on the C&I side, with cost increases for mechanical insulation being passed along and commercial roofing pricing remaining strong due to robust demand.

Philip Ng of Jefferies Financial Group questioned the residential pricing outlook amid builder affordability concerns and the price-cost dynamic for materials. He also asked about the C&I order book and the scale of growth verticals like data centers.

Answer

CFO Rob Kunins noted the guidance includes a ~$30M price-cost headwind for H2 as last year's fiberglass price benefit rolls off. CEO Robert Buck added that teams are driving productivity and working with suppliers on costs. Buck described the C&I backlog as 'solid' and identified data centers, power generation, healthcare, and education as key growth verticals.

Philip Ng of Jefferies questioned the drivers behind the better-than-expected Q1 margin and the implied margin progression for the full year, which appears flat despite typical seasonality.

Answer

CFO Rob Kuhns attributed the Q1 outperformance primarily to stronger-than-anticipated price realization on both residential and C&I products. For the full year, he clarified that normal seasonality is still expected, with Q2 and Q3 margins likely tracking above the full-year midpoint of 19.2% and Q4 tracking below it, all while navigating the toughest year-over-year sales comparison in Q2.

Philip Ng asked about the current pricing environment, particularly how TopBuild is balancing builder pressure with potential input cost inflation for products like spray foam. He also inquired about the M&A pipeline, its focus on the C&I side, and whether the company is considering larger acquisitions in adjacent markets.

Answer

CEO Robert Buck acknowledged that affordability concerns are leading to pricing pressure from builders in slower markets, which is more pronounced on the distribution side and for spray foam. He confirmed the M&A pipeline is robust across residential, distribution, and C&I, and stated that TopBuild is exploring potential larger opportunities in adjacent markets that leverage its core competencies, suggesting more to come on that front.

Phil Ng (Maggie on for Phil) asked about the consistent 3% plumbing pricing pace in Q3, similar to Q2, and whether competitive dynamics or pricing fatigue were factors. He also inquired about nuances in pricing realization across channels and how Q3 observations might influence expectations for 2026 price increases.

Answer

VP and CFO Rick Westenberg reiterated that plumbing pricing is gaining traction and is one of several levers for tariff mitigation, executed in a targeted and balanced way, with a favorable impact expected year-over-year. He declined to comment on specific channel pricing performance or future pricing, emphasizing that pricing remains a key lever for mitigating tariffs and commodity inflation.

Philip Ng from Jefferies asked for color on the differing performance and recovery outlooks for North American and International plumbing. He also inquired about future growth initiatives for pro paint and the company's ability to flex production between DIY and pro.

Answer

CEO Keith Allman noted that International plumbing saw 3% growth, with Europe showing stability and China delivering growth due to a strong project pipeline. In North America, e-commerce and retail were strong, while trade was more challenged but stable. He confirmed Masco has the flexibility to shift production from DIY to pro and is focused on initiatives like expanded delivery options and loyalty programs to drive further pro growth.

Philip Ng inquired about the markets affected by Q4 economic downtime, quantifying its EBITDA impact, and how Smurfit Westrock's "value over volume" strategy will influence its volume spread versus the overall market in the next 12 months. He also asked about North American inventory levels by year-end and potential mill conversions for SBS within the 2026 CapEx guidance.

Answer

CFO Ken Bowles quantified the Q4 downtime's incremental EBITDA impact at $60-$70 million, primarily in North America, with Europe's mills already running optimally. CEO Tony Smurfit estimated the market is down 3-4%, with an additional 5% volume loss due to strategic decisions. Ken Bowles noted that North American inventory optimization is ongoing due to long supply chains and rationalization of external board grades, expecting improvement through 2026. Tony Smurfit deferred detailed CapEx plans for SBS mill conversions to the February 2026 update.

Philip Ng inquired about the markets and estimated EBITDA impact of planned Q4 economic downtime, the expected spread of Smurfit Westrock's volumes versus the overall market in the next 12 months, North American inventory levels exiting the year, and potential mill conversions for SBS within the 2026 CapEx guidance.

Answer

CFO Ken Bowles quantified the incremental EBITDA impact of Q4 downtime at $60 million-$70 million, primarily in North America. CEO Tony Smurfit estimated the market is down 3%-4%, with an additional 5% of their volume loss due to strategic decisions. Ken Bowles stated that North American inventory is improving but not yet optimal, with supply chain optimization ongoing. Tony Smurfit deferred specific details on SBS mill conversions to the February 2026 update, noting they are evaluating strategies for their assets.

Philip Ng from Jefferies Financial Group asked for details on the timeline for winding down unprofitable North American contracts, the sales team's readiness for value-based selling, and the margin headwinds seen in Europe during Q2.

Answer

CEO Tony Smurfit stated that the wind-down of unprofitable contracts should be mostly complete by this time next year. He affirmed the sales team is enthusiastic and that innovation initiatives are being rolled out to support value selling. EVP & Group CFO Ken Bowles detailed that European Q2 margins were impacted by headwinds from recovered fiber and labor costs, but noted that the cost backdrop for energy and fiber is expected to improve in the second half of the year.

Philip Ng inquired about the expected cost savings from the recently announced mill and box plant optimizations and asked if further capacity rationalization opportunities exist, particularly in Europe or for the SBS grade in the U.S. He also sought color on demand trends, including intra-quarter performance and the outlook for the containerboard and consumer packaging businesses.

Answer

CFO Ken Bowles quantified the savings from two mill closures at approximately $50-60 million in incremental annual EBITDA and $100 million in avoided maintenance CapEx over five years. CEO Tony Smurfit confirmed they continuously review the entire asset base for optimization, including SBS, and will update the market on strategy when ready. On demand, Smurfit noted recent stabilization after a weak period but is not banking on a strong second-half recovery, describing the consumer market as 'choppy'.

Philip Ng of Jefferies asked about capital deployment priorities, the reasonableness of the CapEx framework, and the long-term strategic fit of the SBS business. He also inquired about the process of implementing the Smurfit culture and managing potential disruption.

Answer

CEO Tony Smurfit said they are still analyzing the SBS business but noted the mills are efficient. Capital will be focused on upgrading corrugated converting assets. He expects future CapEx to be higher than the current framework and noted a $150M authorization for 'quick win' projects. He believes the cultural transition will not be massively disruptive, as many legacy Westrock managers are familiar with a decentralized, P&L-focused model.

Philip Ng from Jefferies Financial Group inquired about the timeline for winding down unprofitable North American contracts and the sales team's readiness for value-based selling. He also asked for color on the cost headwinds that impacted European margins in Q2 and the outlook for the second half.

Answer

CEO Tony Smurfit stated that the wind-down of unprofitable contracts should be mostly complete by this time next year. He affirmed the sales team is enthusiastic and being equipped with enhanced innovation tools. EVP & Group CFO Ken Bowles detailed that European Q2 margins were pressured by higher recovered fiber and labor costs, but expects a better cost environment for energy, fiber, and labor in the second half of the year.

Philip Ng asked for an update on the inflation outlook for the full year, including major inputs and the pace in the back half of 2025. He also inquired about expectations for productivity in 2026, specifically if a consistent steady dose of gains is still available. Additionally, he sought clarity on Architectural Specialties' organic growth for 2026, considering tough comps and double-digit orders/backlog, asking if double-digit organic growth is a reasonable expectation.

Answer

CFO Chris Calzaretta confirmed expectations for continued productivity gains. He outlined the full-year inflation outlook as low single-digit overall, with freight flat, raw materials in the low single-digit range, and energy in the low double-digit range. He noted that inflation is slightly moderating in the back half compared to July expectations, though Q4 might see a slight uptick in energy and raw materials versus the Q1-Q3 run rate. CEO Vic Grizzle expects good solid organic growth in Architectural Specialties for 2026, building on high single-digit organic growth in 2025 and double-digit order intake, but stopped short of forecasting exact double-digit organic growth for 2026.

Philip Ng asked for an update on the full-year inflation outlook, including major inputs and the pace in the back half, and inquired about expectations for consistent productivity gains into 2026. He also sought insight into the organic growth prospects for Architectural Specialties in 2026, considering tough comparisons and strong current orders/backlog.

Answer

CFO Chris Calzaretta confirmed expectations for consistent productivity gains. He outlined a full-year inflation outlook of low single-digit total input costs, with freight flat, raw materials in low single digits, and energy in low double digits, noting a slight moderation in the back half compared to prior expectations. CEO Vic Grizzle stated that Architectural Specialties' organic growth is high single digits this year, and strong order intake suggests continued solid organic growth in 2026, though a specific forecast is pending.

Philip Ng asked for an update on Mineral Fiber bidding activity, visibility, and trends across key end markets like education and office. He also inquired about the M&A pipeline and the outlook for SG&A spending on a more normalized basis, particularly for the Architectural Specialties segment.

Answer

CEO Vic Grizzle described on-the-ground bidding as steady, with potential softness coming from the less visible discretionary market. He noted strength in data centers and healthcare, stability in education, and a bottoming in the office sector. He also confirmed the M&A pipeline is active. Management indicated that SG&A in the AS segment will be leveraged over time as acquisitions are integrated and efficiencies are gained.

Philip Ng of Jefferies Financial Group asked if the weather-related weakness in the home center channel seen in Q1 has started to normalize. He also sought color on visibility into 2026 for new construction and the Architectural Specialties business.

Answer

CEO Victor Grizzle confirmed that order rates from the home center channel have normalized following the Q1 weather disruptions and expects the impact to be temporary. Regarding 2026, Grizzle noted that while new construction backlogs support a solid 2025, and the company is closing some Architectural Specialties projects for 2026, it is too early to comment on the magnitude for that year. He highlighted the strong ongoing momentum in the AS business.

Phil Ng asked about Mohawk's cost competitiveness in major U.S. categories like ceramic, laminate, LVT, and quartz countertops, especially with new tariffs. He also inquired if laminate is becoming more competitive against LVT and if new placements are being seen from channel partners. He sought clarification on the Q1/Q2 2026 outlook regarding productivity, restructuring, price/cost, and volume growth driving profitability.

Answer

President and COO Paul De Cock confirmed that waterproof laminate is an excellent LVT alternative, with builders shifting to it, and domestic production benefits from reciprocal tariffs. He highlighted laminate's value and competitive setup in North Carolina, while CFO James Brunk added that U.S. and Mexico-manufactured ceramic is advantaged by tariffs. Chairman and CEO Jeff Lorberbaum clarified that the 'equilibrium' referred to tariffs. CFO James Brunk stated that for Q1/Q2 2026, normal seasonality and rising input costs (materials, wages, energy, shipping) are expected, with productivity and tariff price increases planned to offset inflation, anticipating improved year-over-year results.

Philip Ng asked about the company's capital deployment priorities over the next 12-18 months, specifically its appetite for buybacks versus M&A. He also inquired about customer conversations regarding shelf space given Mohawk's U.S. manufacturing footprint.

Answer

CFO James Brunk stated that Mohawk will maintain a balanced approach to capital allocation, utilizing its new share repurchase authorization while seeking M&A opportunities as the market improves. President & COO Paul De Cock added that the company is exploring commitments with customers to leverage its domestic capacity and noted that customer pre-buying ahead of tariffs has been limited.

Philip Ng asked about intra-quarter trends in Q1 and how April progressed by geography. He also questioned if the year-over-year inflation headwind would peak in Q2 or could worsen, and how the price/cost equation might evolve.

Answer

CEO Jeff Lorberbaum stated that April followed the same slow trends seen in Q1 across all geographies due to low consumer confidence. He noted that it's uncertain if lower oil prices will translate to lower commodity costs, as supply chains have low margins. He reiterated that the company expects to mitigate inflation through pricing, productivity, and mix.

Philip Ng asked for the potential size of the natural gas cost impact in Q2/Q3 and whether pricing actions were being taken to offset inflation. He also inquired about the net impact of potential tariffs on imported goods, particularly from Mexico, on Mohawk's business.

Answer

CEO Jeff Lorberbaum stated that they believe mix improvements and productivity will have to cover most rising costs, as passing on price increases will be difficult. Regarding tariffs, he said the net effect is unknown. While it would be a negative for their imports from Mexico, it could be a positive for their U.S. manufacturing, and they are exploring alternatives for their supply chain.

Philip Ng asked about the ability to raise prices in 2025 to counter rising ocean freight costs, given competitor capacity closures. He also sought clarity on the expected shape of 2025 demand and the company's ability to grow EBITDA and EPS next year.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Jeff Lorberbaum responded that while rising ocean freight will necessitate price increases on imported products, the ability to raise prices broadly is limited by industry overcapacity. He expressed confidence that demand will improve in 2025 as interest rates fall, but stated it's impossible to predict the exact timing. He noted that cost reductions from restructuring, improved mix, and operating leverage from higher volume are the key drivers for improved results next year.

Philip Ng inquired about Ferguson's pricing and margin performance, specifically whether the recent positive inflection in pricing is sustainable, if commodity deflation is stabilizing, and if the strong gross margin expansion included any temporary inventory profit gains, suggesting potential moderation.

Answer

Bill Brundage, CFO & Director, Ferguson, confirmed a positive inflection in pricing, expecting modest low single-digit inflation for the calendar year, despite noise from tariffs. He noted the commodity basket is still in low single-digit decline, with PVC deflation offsetting inflation in copper and steel. Brundage expressed satisfaction with the 31.7% gross margin, attributing it to strong execution and pricing adjustments, but acknowledged some temporary benefit from the timing of supplier price increases. He expects gross margins to normalize back into the 30-31% range, with August showing signs of this normalization.

Phil Ng inquired about the momentum in the non-residential segment, specifically regarding data centers, bidding activity, areas of strength, and general backlogs. He also asked about pricing inflection, commodity stabilization, and gross margin expansion, including any timing nuances like inventory profit gains and expectations for moderation.

Answer

Kevin Murphy (CEO) confirmed healthy and building backlogs across commercial mechanical, fire protection, waterworks, and industrial PVF, noting that gestation periods vary. He highlighted strength in data centers, biotechnology, pharma, large-scale hospital work, and water/wastewater treatment plants, where waterworks and industrial PVF collaborate. Bill Brundage (CFO) stated that pricing inflected positive, with expectations for modest overall inflation, though the commodity basket (PVC) remains in low single-digit decline. He was pleased with the 31.7% gross margin, attributing it to execution and pricing adjustments, but noted some temporary benefit from supplier price increase timing, expecting normalization to the 30%-31% range.

Phil Ng inquired about the outlook for pricing and gross margins, asking if the recent positive pricing inflection is sustainable, if commodity deflation is stabilizing, and whether the strong gross margin expansion included temporary benefits that might moderate.

Answer

CFO Bill Brundage stated that modest overall inflation is expected for the calendar year, with commodity prices still in low single-digit decline (PVC deflation, copper/steel inflation). He confirmed that the 31.7% gross margin included some temporary benefits from supplier price increase timing, and expects gross margins to normalize back into the 30-31% range in the future, noting August gross margins showed this normalization.

Philip Ng asked about the outsized growth in the commercial and industrial sectors, seeking color on bidding activity and whether the associated margin drag would dissipate. He also questioned how the company is managing pricing amid new tariff announcements.

Answer

CEO Kevin Murphy noted that bidding activity for large capital projects, especially data centers, remains strong and that the company's pricing strategy focuses on value, not just price. CFO Bill Brundage added that while the pricing environment is dynamic, with suppliers announcing mid-single-digit increases, Ferguson feels confident in its ability to manage gross margins through the period.

Philip Ng inquired about the drivers of the softer gross margin, the outlook for pricing in the second half, and the potential impact of tariffs on both commodity and finished goods pricing.

Answer

CFO Bill Brundage attributed the 70-basis-point gross margin decline to a combination of a weak market, persistent commodity-led deflation (now in its sixth quarter), and sales mix pressure from outsized growth in HVAC and Waterworks. CEO Kevin Murphy added that commodity deflation in inputs like PVC resin and hot-rolled coil steel was the primary driver. He noted that recently announced tariffs could have a stabilizing effect on deflation, particularly in the steel pipe market, but the situation remains dynamic.

Philip Ng asked for clarity on the operating margin progression for the full year, given Q1 was at the low end of the guide, and also questioned the outlook for large 'mega projects,' inquiring about any pre-election pauses and the potential impact of a new administration.

Answer

CFO Bill Brundage reaffirmed the full-year 9.0%-9.5% operating margin guidance, acknowledging Q1 pressure was expected. He anticipates improvement in the second half driven by sustained volume growth and easing deflationary pressures, with finished goods pricing expected to turn positive. CEO Kevin Murphy addressed mega projects, stating data center activity is '100% go,' while EV and battery projects are proceeding at a slower, more realistic pace. He does not foresee a slowdown in data centers under a new administration and believes the large capital project space will remain attractive.

Philip Ng of Jefferies questioned whether the expected FY25 margin compression would stem from gross margins or SG&A, and asked for an update on the performance of the traditional light commercial business.

Answer

CFO Bill Brundage clarified that the expected operating margin moderation is primarily due to SG&A deleveraging from price deflation and soft market volumes, particularly in the first half, while gross margins are expected to remain relatively stable. CEO Kevin Murphy added that the traditional non-residential commercial business has been pressured, but this weakness has been offset by strong performance in large capital projects, which has driven growth in the commercial mechanical and Waterworks customer groups.

Philip Ng followed up on North American residential insulation, asking about the extent of production downtime, the status of the destocking cycle, and whether pricing gaps versus competitors have widened.

Answer

CFO Todd Fister stated that price gaps are roughly in line with historical levels and that channel destocking occurred during the quarter. He clarified that current production curtailments are 'hot idle,' such as slowing lines and extending maintenance, rather than 'cold idle' or full line shutdowns, though that remains an option depending on long-term market dynamics.

Philip Ng requested an update on the Roofing business, asking about demand resilience, storm activity, price increase traction, and the impact of the new Medina plant.

Answer

CEO Brian Chambers confirmed that roofing demand remains very good, driven by non-discretionary reroofing activity. He noted the April price increase is gaining good traction. The new Medina laminate line is on track to start up at the end of Q2, which, along with asset maintenance, is contributing to temporarily higher manufacturing costs in the first half of the year.

Philip Ng requested more detail on the Doors business, specifically its path to improved margins and its exposure to tariffs on materials like Colombian lumber.

Answer

CEO Brian Chambers clarified that the business has no significant exposure to Colombian lumber, as inputs are mostly local. The primary tariff risk relates to finished goods moved within its integrated North American supply chain. He outlined the path to higher margins through integration synergies, network optimization, and operating leverage from volume recovery as markets improve, supplemented by future commercial synergies.

Philip Ng of Jefferies asked about the potential demand uplift for the Roofing business in 2025 from recent hurricanes and questioned the company's ability to sustain low-30% margins and drive further price increases.

Answer

CEO Brian Chambers estimated a potential hurricane-related demand of around 3 million squares, primarily impacting 2025. He expressed confidence in the 2025 outlook for Roofing, citing strong R&R fundamentals, a potential new construction recovery, and storm demand. He noted that ongoing investments in laminate capacity, including the new Medina laminator, will position the company to meet this demand and support growth.

Philip Ng from Jefferies Financial Group questioned whether the Protective segment is experiencing a slowdown in order activity and asked to distinguish how much of the industrial portfolio's growth is from internal initiatives versus a market cycle turn.

Answer

President, CEO & Director Dustin Semach stated that order patterns remained steady into July. He attributed the performance improvement primarily to internal initiatives, such as investments in the sales force and a renewed focus on winning back customers and minimizing churn, rather than a broader cyclical upturn in the market.

Philip Ng requested an update on order patterns for April and May in both the Food and Protective segments, and asked about visibility and feedback from channel partners, particularly for the short-cycle Protective business.

Answer

President and CEO Dustin Semach reported that April's performance was largely on track with expectations for both segments, though it was too early to comment on May. He noted that while the company is watching for potential protein trade-downs in the U.S., it hasn't materialized yet. Semach added that distribution partners also reported an on-track Q1 but remain cautious about the second half of the year.

Philip Ng questioned the dynamics of the Protective segment, asking if the first-half weakness is primarily due to the Amazon contract hangover or broader demand pressures. He also inquired about the pricing environment, competitive intensity, and the slower-than-expected ramp-up of the AUTOBAG and fiber mailer products.

Answer

CEO Dustin Semach confirmed the first-half weakness is a mix of continued underperformance and the hangover from Amazon and other customer churn, but noted the churn situation is better than in prior years. He stated that while competition persists, pricing pressure hasn't significantly changed from 2024. Semach acknowledged the fiber mailer scale-up has been slow but highlighted strong market reception and a focus on accelerating implementation.

Philip Ng asked for details on the Protective segment's expected back-half volume ramp, questioning if first-half weakness was solely due to the Amazon hangover or broader pressures. He also inquired about the pricing environment, competitive intensity, and the seemingly slow progress in scaling up the Autobag and fiber mailer offerings.

Answer

CEO Dustin Semach clarified that the first-half weakness in Protective is a mix of continued underperformance, the Amazon hangover, and other Q1 customer churn, though the overall churn situation has improved. He acknowledged the fiber mailer scale-up has been slower than desired but noted strong market reception and a renewed focus on accelerating implementation. On pricing, he stated that the competitive environment is stable compared to 2024, with some pressure remaining in fulfillment product lines.

Philip Ng asked about the potential for positive price/mix in the Food segment in 2025 and the pricing stability in Protective, ultimately questioning if net price could turn positive next year.

Answer

President and CFO Dustin Semach indicated that the overall price/cost dynamic is expected to be more favorable in 2025. He noted the negative price spread has narrowed significantly, nearing flattish in Q4. While some competitive pressures remain, particularly in Protective's void-fill products, the wraparound effect of prior resin cost changes is diminishing. Whether net price turns positive in 2025 is still to be determined.

Philip Ng from Jefferies Financial Group asked about demand trends across different consumer segments and whether a recent price increase could lead to upside in guidance. He also sought more detail on potential M&A targets.

Answer

President & CEO Bryan Fairbanks stated that due to weather-related softness in Q2, the company is not raising guidance based on the price increase, but upside is possible. On M&A, he said the focus is on the 'outdoor living' space and that Trex could acquire companies with lower margins, believing its operational system could drive considerable improvement.

Philip Ng from Jefferies Financial Group asked about demand trends across different consumer segments, whether a recent price increase could lead to upside in guidance, and for more detail on potential M&A targets and margin criteria.

Answer

President & CEO Bryan Fairbanks stated that demand is in line with expectations and the company is not raising guidance. Regarding M&A, he said the focus is on the 'outdoor living' space and that while targets may not have Trex-level margins initially, Trex could improve their performance post-acquisition.

Philip Ng questioned the drivers behind the strong implied incremental EBITDA margins for the second half of the year, which appear to be above the company's long-term targets. He also asked about potential strategic shifts in M&A or go-to-market strategy in response to ongoing consolidation in the distribution channel.

Answer

CFO Brenda Lovcik attributed the anticipated second-half margin ramp-up to the resolution of temporary headwinds from Q1 and Q2 (like the Enhance changeover costs) and more favorable year-over-year production volumes. CEO Bryan Fairbanks stated that there is no change to their M&A strategy and that the company has long been aware of distributor consolidation, expressing satisfaction with its current partner network.

Philip Ng asked for clarification on the 2025 winter buy program and how Trex intends to manage production levels given its high inventory. He also questioned whether Arkansas startup costs would be excluded from adjusted earnings.

Answer

CEO Bryan Fairbanks confirmed a pre-buy program will occur but that the company is changing its inventory management to avoid prior boom-bust production cycles. Both he and CFO Brenda Lovik affirmed that startup costs will be adjusted out of reported results to provide clarity on underlying performance.

Philip Ng of Jefferies Financial Group asked for an assessment of the DS Smith asset quality and optimization opportunities, particularly in the European mill system. He also questioned the Q2 EBITDA loss reported for the legacy DS Smith North America business and sought clarity on the full-year outlook.

Answer

CEO & Chairman Andrew Silvernail described the DS Smith assets as a 'mixed bag' and stated the strategic goal in Europe is to drive further integration between paper and box plants, which is the winning model. He expressed no long-term concern over the DS Smith North America results, explaining the assets are not yet integrated to balance demand. He confirmed the company is operating within its guided range, with market softness and mill performance being the main variables.

Philip Ng inquired about the demand assumptions required to meet the full-year EBITDA guidance, current order patterns, and the potential impact of a recession. He also asked about the pulp business's sensitivity to tariffs and the potential impact on the containerboard business.

Answer

Executive Andrew Silvernail stated that at current demand levels (down 2% in North America), the company can achieve its $3.5 billion to $4.0 billion EBITDA target, though likely at the lower end. He noted that if demand weakens further, they are prepared to accelerate cost-out initiatives. Regarding tariffs, Silvernail explained the direct risk to the pulp business is in the mid-single digits, and the primary impact on the overall company is second-order effects on general economic demand rather than direct shipment tariffs.

Philip Ng inquired about the timeline for cost and commercial actions to impact earnings momentum throughout 2025 and asked if the current level of capital and maintenance spending should be considered a new steady state.

Answer

Executive Andrew Silvernail explained that the benefits from cost-out actions will ramp up sequentially through 2025. He stated that he would invest more aggressively if the organization could effectively execute it, noting the company is filling a 'hole dug over a decade' and will need to maintain higher investment levels for a few years to close the gap on strategic assets, suggesting the current spend is not the peak.

Philip Ng asked about the progress of customer mix optimization, the impact of new sales incentives, and the current state of customer churn. He also inquired about the broader rollout of productivity pilots in the box system and the ability to replicate complexity reduction wins with other customers.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Andy Silvernail stated that while volume leakage has slowed, it is not yet gone, with an expected return to market growth in the second half of the next year. He explained that IP is focusing on the 'big middle' 60% of the market, aiming to be a low-cost producer rather than a low-price player. Silvernail detailed the box plant pilot strategy, which involves specializing plants to improve efficiency, and noted the significant time savings from reducing order complexity with a key customer, a model they hope to replicate.

Philip Ng inquired about the progress of customer mix optimization, the impact of new sales incentives, and the current state of customer churn. He also asked about the broader rollout potential for the successful box plant productivity pilots and customer complexity reduction initiatives.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Andy Silvernail responded that volume leakage has slowed and they expect a return to market growth in the latter half of the next year. He emphasized that IP's strategy is to be the low-cost producer for the 'big middle' of the market, not the low-price player. Silvernail explained that the productivity pilots involve specializing plants within a region to boost efficiency, an approach applicable to about half of their regions. He highlighted a customer collaboration that saved 1,300 hours of changeover time as a key example of win-win complexity reduction.

Philip Ng of Jefferies Financial Group asked if the current single-family destocking trend would be resolved this year, setting up for potential growth in 2026. He also inquired about the M&A pipeline and potential evolution of the company's strategy.

Answer

CEO Peter Jackson suggested that builders are already adjusting to high inventory levels, which could lead to stabilization by year-end and set up a better 2026, though it's too early to call. On M&A, he described the current environment for bite-sized deals as quiet due to price discovery challenges. He affirmed the strategy remains focused on the core business of servicing builders and pro-focused R&R, where the company has a strong track record of value creation.

Philip Ng from Jefferies asked if the implied second-half earnings ramp in the guidance assumes a market recovery or is simply due to seasonality and recent deals. He also questioned BLDR's ability to pass through potential tariff costs and when those costs might impact the P&L.

Answer

CEO Peter Jackson and CFO Pete Beckmann confirmed the second-half outlook is based on normal seasonality and M&A contributions, not an expected market recovery. Regarding tariffs, Beckmann stated the intent is to pass them through, while Jackson added that the actual impact is a 'best guess' given market uncertainties and that it would not fall outside the existing guidance range. The timing is uncertain due to inventory already in the channel.

Philip Ng asked for an early read on the spring selling season and any changes in builder behavior, and also inquired about the M&A pipeline, seller expectations, and how the company balances acquisitions with share buybacks.

Answer

CEO Peter Jackson noted that builders are consistently using rate buydowns and modulating starts by market to manage inventory. On capital allocation, he reiterated that M&A is a priority for value creation, with a healthy pipeline of targets, and that share buybacks remain fifth on the priority list.

Philip Ng asked if the 2025 scenarios assume a pullback in mortgage rates and what the pricing outlook is for non-commodity products. He also inquired about the M&A pipeline, including seller sentiment and the size of potential deals.

Answer

CEO Designate Peter Jackson clarified that there is no explicit mortgage rate assumption, as it's implicitly included in economist forecasts. He noted the pricing environment for non-commodity products is stabilizing, with some vendors signaling modest increases. On M&A, Jackson described the pipeline as 'strong,' with motivated sellers primarily bringing smaller deals to market, though the company is evaluating a wide range of opportunities.

Philip Ng of Jefferies Financial Group inquired if the mid-single-digit growth expectation for infrastructure is still accurate and if growth could accelerate in 2026. He also asked about the performance and outlook for the downstream businesses.

Answer

Chair & CEO J. Thomas Hill confirmed an upswing in infrastructure for 2025 and expects even stronger growth in 2026 and 2027. Senior VP & CFO Mary Carlisle noted the downstream asphalt business was weather-impacted but saw price improvement and is recovering, while the ready-mix business saw margin improvement despite softer demand and could improve in the second half.

Philip Ng of Jefferies asked about the pricing drag from recent acquisitions, including how much lower their average selling prices are and why overall pricing guidance is not in the high-single-digit range.

Answer

CEO Tom Hill confirmed the price differential for acquired assets is 'substantially lower' but noted that price increases have already begun in those markets. He explained that while organic pricing is strong, the key focus is on growing unit margins by double-digits, which is achievable with mid-single-digit price growth against a backdrop of moderating low-to-mid-single-digit cost inflation.

Philip Ng asked about the outlook for cost per ton in Q4 and 2025, and whether a return to volume growth could accelerate the improvement in gross profit per ton.

Answer

Chairman and CEO James Hill stated that he expects unit cost increases to continue moderating, with a return to a low to mid-single-digit growth rate being the target. He affirmed that a combination of volume growth, more normal weather, and ongoing 'Vulcan Way of Operating' efficiencies should ease cost pressures and support the company's goal of double-digit unit margin growth.

Philip Ng questioned the reaffirmed full-year guidance, which implies significant back-half growth, asking for details on the volume and pricing assumptions required to achieve it and the key drivers for margin expansion.

Answer

CFO Larry Wilt confirmed the growth is primarily volume-driven, based on easier year-over-year comparisons due to 2024's hurricanes. CEO Bill Zarkalis emphasized that severe weather suppressed H1 2025 results, and a rebound is already visible in July. He clarified that while reported average cement prices are affected by mix, like-for-like pricing momentum remains strong.

Philip Ng of Jefferies asked about the pricing environment, questioning if rising steel costs and tariffs could lead to better pricing or market share gains in the second half. He also sought details on the R3 (Restore, Rebuild, Replace) business, including the timeline for lapping the retail conversion drag and any tangible signs of customers pivoting from new construction to R3.

Answer

CFO Anselm Wong stated that the lower Q1 price impact was due to timing and that the company can implement commercial actions to mitigate potential steel price increases. On the R3 business, Mr. Wong noted the drag from retail conversions is lessening and that the backlog is showing incremental increases in R3 projects. CEO Ramey Jackson added that the rebranding opportunity with large customers is a multi-year effort and that institutional operators are accelerating renovations. He confirmed expectations for the R3 business to accelerate in the second half of 2025.

Philip Ng of Jefferies asked for an update on projects that were previously paused due to high interest rates, including the status of backlogs and bidding activity. He also sought clarity on the expected volume cadence through 2025 and the outlook for the R3 segment, particularly regarding a potential large REIT customer project and whether conversion activity has bottomed.

Answer

CFO Anselm Wong clarified that project movement was tied to customer liquidity, and as customers complete projects, they are now starting previously delayed ones. CEO Ramey Jackson added that the backlog and pipeline are stable, with growth in international business. Wong confirmed a negative volume cadence is expected in the first half of 2025, with a potential back-half recovery. Regarding R3, he stated that conversion activity has bottomed but is not yet growing, and that rebranding opportunities exist with multiple customers, not just one, due to a favorable M&A environment.

Philip Ng questioned how the company can maintain its long-term margin targets when Q4 guidance implies mid-teen margins, asking about the drivers for a 2025 rebound. He also asked about production curtailments, backlog trends, contractual limitations on project delays, and potential market share loss among smaller operators.

Answer

CFO Anselm Wong attributed the low Q4 margin forecast to extremely low volume and noted that cost-saving actions will primarily impact 2025. He expressed confidence that margins will recover with normalized volumes, contributions from TMC, and Noke Ion. CEO Ramey Jackson added that while project delays have a shelf life, the timing is uncertain. He also stated he is not concerned about losing market share, as customers value Janus's strong balance sheet and comprehensive solutions over low-price competitors.

Philip Ng of Jefferies Financial Group Inc. inquired about the expected flow-through of the $150 million in transformation and cost-out benefits in the second half of the year and asked how the company is managing liquidity risk given that leverage reached 4.5x.

Answer

CEO William Christensen confirmed the benefit realization is weighted toward the second half (60%) but cautioned that achieving the full amount depends on volume development. CFO Samantha Stoddard noted that while leverage is at an 'unacceptable level,' the company's lending agreements do not have restrictive covenants. She emphasized that JELD-WEN has ample liquidity, including an undrawn revolver, and is actively managing working capital and CapEx while exploring options like sale-leasebacks to strengthen the balance sheet.

Philip Ng inquired about the drivers behind the significant earnings step-up from Q1 to Q2 2025, the layering in of cost savings initiatives, and the assumptions for demand. He also asked for clarity on the price/cost outlook, including any pricing actions and the potential impact of various tariffs.

Answer

CFO Samantha Stoddard explained that the earnings progression is driven by the timing of cost-saving actions taking effect in Q2, combined with expected normal seasonality. CEO Bill Christensen added that the company is taking pricing actions to offset approximately $50 million in non-tariff cost inflation. He noted that potential tariffs are being modeled but are not yet included in the guidance.

Philip Ng from Jefferies asked about the progression of sales and mix through Q3 and into October, the potential for depressed Q4 margins from inventory issues, the validity of a 2025 EBITDA framework, and the outlook for price/cost dynamics next year.

Answer

CEO William Christensen confirmed that volume and mix continued to deteriorate due to a softening R&R market, a trend that continued in October. He stated that a 2025 framework based on the H2 2024 run rate plus $100 million in savings is a fair assumption, with savings spread evenly through the year. He and CFO Samantha Stoddard noted their aspiration is for price/cost neutrality in 2025, which will require counteracting recent cost headwinds.

Philip Ng from Jefferies inquired about the progress of Fortune Brands' corporate transformation and headquarters consolidation, asking how these initiatives enable the company to navigate the dynamic economic backdrop. He also requested a detailed breakdown of the tariff mitigation strategy, including how the $525 million annualized impact is distributed across business segments and the timing of these countermeasures.

Answer

CEO Nicholas Fink explained the company's three-phase transformation (portfolio, operating company, co-location) and noted the headquarters move provides significant operational flexibility, especially in controlling the pace of hiring. Former CFO and current President of Security and Connected Products, David Barry, detailed the tariff impact, stating it's $200 million in-year and $525 million annualized. He broke down the exposure by segment (60% Water, 25% Security, 15% Outdoors) and clarified that near-term mitigation will rely on pricing and cost controls, with supply chain shifts contributing more significantly in late 2025 and into 2026.

Philip Ng inquired about the framework for 2025, seeking details on organic growth expectations and margin levers, and asked about the growth contribution and capacity constraints for connected products like Flo.

Answer

CFO David Barry stated that 2025 outperformance will be driven by improving core POS and converting the connected product pipeline, with growth accelerating through the year. CEO Nicholas Fink added that the pace of Flo contract wins was faster than expected, creating a $160M sales pipeline at a conservative 5% conversion rate. He noted the company is investing to reduce the time-to-revenue for these contracts, comparing the ramp-up to building a factory in the virtual world.

Philip Ng asked for color on new activation trends in the quarter for modular and storage, the progression of the pending order book, and the drivers behind the strength in large customers versus smaller ones. He also inquired about margin differences between these customer types.

Answer

CFO Matthew Jacobsen noted that after a slower start, March/April activations were flat YoY for modular and up 3% for storage. President and COO Timothy Boswell added that the strength in large customers is a continuing 18-month trend driven by mega-projects, where WillScot is well-positioned. He explained that larger customers do not necessarily get better pricing, as they prioritize reliability and service, creating VAPS opportunities.

Philip Ng from Jefferies inquired about the operational changes being made to the sales force, such as realigning KPIs, to stimulate cross-selling and capture enterprise accounts. He also asked for more color on the AMR growth assumptions for both modular and storage embedded in the 2025 guidance.

Answer

President & COO Timothy Boswell confirmed they are realigning performance expectations and incentives for the sales team and increasing accountability. He highlighted a focus on commercial execution, productivity tools, and potentially adding sales headcount. Boswell also mentioned a new focus on the order-to-cash process to improve customer satisfaction. CFO Matt Jacobsen reiterated that the midpoint of guidance assumes mid-single-digit AMR growth for modular and low-single-digit for storage, consistent with prior commentary. He added that delivered rates on storage have been stable to modestly increasing since Q2 2024.

Philip Ng asked for more detail on the 2025 outlook, specifically the expected mix between units on rent and AMR growth. He also sought an updated view on the AMR growth potential for both modular and storage segments.

Answer

President and CFO Timothy Boswell explained that while units on rent will start 2025 with a headwind, the company has multiple levers for growth, including strong modular AMR, VAPS traction, and new products. He projected modular AMR could see low-to-mid-single-digit growth based on the current 12% pricing spread, with storage AMR growth dependent on a pickup in spot rates for traditional containers.

Philip Ng asked about the outlook for EBITDA margins in the current environment and how the company is balancing capital allocation between M&A and shareholder returns, including its appetite for larger deals.

Answer

CFO Michael Miller acknowledged that a soft environment can put short-term pressure on EBITDA margins but stressed that company incentives are focused on EBITDA improvement. CEO Jeffrey Edwards stated that M&A is the favored use of capital, but the company has the capacity for buybacks and dividends as well. He confirmed they are seeing larger deals and are open to acquisitions in adjacent spaces.

Asked about the strategy and opportunity in the railing category, the current railing attachment rate, and whether the guidance includes price increases, and what the channel partners' outlook is post-winter buy.

Answer

The company is leveraging its distribution to capture a large railing market opportunity, expecting it to be an additive growth driver. The railing attachment rate is in the mid-to-high teens. The full-year plan includes a flat-to-modest net price increase. Channel partners are very positive and excited about new products.

Questioned the modest margin expansion guidance given self-help initiatives and asked about capital allocation priorities for 2025, particularly the balance between M&A and share buybacks.

Answer

The company stated that there is still plenty of headroom in their margin improvement initiatives and they are on track to achieve their long-term targets early. Capital allocation priorities remain investing in the business organically and through tuck-in M&A, with excess cash being used for opportunistic share repurchases.

Philip Ng asked for clarification on the Q4 EBITDA performance relative to expectations and questioned the 2025 volume growth assumptions, specifically the contribution from innovation and any significant wins, such as with the Rainier product.

Answer

EVP and CFO Stephen Scherger attributed the Q4 shortfall to slightly lighter-than-expected volume and a significant foreign exchange headwind. For 2025, he confirmed that the guided volume growth assumes a neutral market, with growth primarily driven by the 2% innovation target. President and CEO Michael Doss added that the Rainier product is seeing accelerating progress with commercial sales in the Health and Beauty segment.

Asked for a detailed bridge for the strong Q4 EBITDA guidance, the drivers behind the expected Q4 volume rebound in Food & Beverage, and the expected timing and impact of the "value over volume" strategy in that segment for 2025.

Answer

The strong Q4 is driven by a mix of volume/price improvements (1/3) and cost/efficiency gains (2/3). The F&B volume rebound is due to seasonal factors (ag, bakery), a bird flu recovery, and strength in Mexico. The "value over volume" strategy in F&B will lead to better earnings quality, with significant benefits from contract resets expected in the back half of 2025.

Asked for clarification on whether customer stress is concentrated in Foodservice or also present in Food and Beverage. He also inquired about the organic volume expectations for the Food and Beverage Merchandising segment and the expected EBITDA cadence for Q2 and Q3, including key drivers like cost inflation and savings.

Answer

The executives confirmed the customer stress comments were primarily about the Foodservice segment, while Food and Beverage Merchandising is a 'mixed bag' where destocking is largely over. Organic volumes in Food and Beverage Merchandising are expected to be flat to low single-digit improvement. For Q2 EBITDA, they noted a ~$20 million negative impact from a planned mill outage. The second half is expected to see an inflection driven by volume momentum from new customer wins and the realization of cost-saving initiatives.

Asked for a breakdown of the volume guidance between market growth and new business wins, whether the company could still hit its guidance in a flat volume scenario, and the outlook for the price-cost spread in 2024 after strong 2023 margin performance.

Answer

The company's guidance assumes a soft-landing macro environment, but they have levers to pull, including the new footprint optimization, if volumes are weaker. The 2023 margin gain was driven by the 'value over volume' strategy, while 2024 will be more driven by cost reduction initiatives. The price-cost spread is expected to be negative at the start of the year due to a lag in COLA recoveries but should improve as the year progresses.

Asked for details on the 2025 framework, including expectations for demand, pricing for cement and aggregates, and opportunities to improve commercial efforts for the acquired Argos assets.

Answer

The company is planning for cautious volumes in 2025, with strong public markets and choppy private markets. Aggregates pricing is expected to be in the 6-9% range. Cement pricing will also be strong, with a harmonized January 1 price increase and the potential for a mid-year increase. They are actively working to bring below-market Argos contracts up to market rates.

Sought clarity on the back-half volume guidance, which implies an uptick. He asked about the cadence between Q3 and Q4, whether recent storms are factored in, and if elevated weather-related costs from Q2 will persist into Q3.

Answer

The company expects a slight volume uptick in the back half due to pent-up demand, strong backlogs, and easier comps, particularly in Q3. On costs, they expect moderation in the back half as energy costs remain favorable and R&M costs ease, while labor remains sticky. They are also actively managing discretionary spending.

Asked about the drivers behind the strong Aggregates margins and relatively flat costs in a seasonally weak quarter, and how the company plans to maintain this performance and manage costs for the rest of the year.

Answer

The performance was driven by a strong focus on operational excellence and continuous improvement projects targeting unit costs. The company is building out these capabilities to counter inflation. The goal for 2024 is to hold aggregate costs per ton flat to offset inflation, though cost moderation has been gradual and is expected more in the back half of the year. The combination of price realization and cost control is driving margin expansion toward the long-term 60% target.

Asked about the expected magnitude and timing of cement price increases in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, the timeline for working through existing contracts, and the impact of global import dynamics like issues in the Red Sea and Panama Canal.

Answer

Legacy Summit is executing well on a $15/ton increase, with a potential mid-year hike. The legacy Argos business will take more time due to longer-term contracts that need to roll off, but there is catch-up pricing to be done. The overall cement business is expected to see high single-digit price growth. The company is not heavily exposed to imports in its key markets, so the focus is on margin expansion through pricing and operational synergies rather than global import dynamics.

Inquired about the drivers for Q4 volume guidance amidst consumer weakness, the progress of divestitures, future leverage targets, and capital allocation priorities.

Answer

The company stated that Q4 volume guidance is based on current trends and easier year-over-year comparisons, not an assumed market recovery. They expect leverage to be in the low 3x range by the end of fiscal 2025, driven by over $3 billion in expected cash from operations and divestitures. Post-deleveraging, capital allocation will prioritize share buybacks and accretive bolt-on acquisitions.

Asked about the confidence and process for the planned $1 billion in divestitures, the potential use of proceeds for M&A, and the company's stance on its leverage target. Also inquired about the sources of the increased cost savings and the timeline for benefits from lean transformation and commercial excellence initiatives.

Answer

The company has high confidence in monetizing a group of non-core, profitable businesses that have high interest from others. Proceeds will be used for debt reduction, providing 2-3x of additional deleveraging. The company is committed to staying within its stated leverage range. Benefits from lean transformation are already starting to be seen in cost, quality, and service consistency, with a focus on improving equipment effectiveness and first pass yield without a step-up in CapEx.

Asked about recent volume trends, the ability to achieve flat EBITDA in Q2, the outlook for price/cost, and the current environment for pricing conversations with customers.

Answer

The company expects improvement in Q2 from cost-saving levers and sees early signs of recovery in some industrial segments. The price/cost dynamic is expected to be relatively neutral in Q2. Pricing conversations with customers are manageable because while Berry is recovering non-resin inflation, customers are still seeing a lower net price due to the significant drop in resin costs from their peak.