Praneeth Satish

Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo & Company asked why the pace of gas pipeline announcements for power generation seems slower than peers and questioned the impact of recent tax legislation on Enbridge's cash tax burden.

Answer

President & CEO Gregory Ebel countered the premise, listing numerous projects and highlighting wins with major tech companies on both the gas and renewables fronts. EVP & CFO Patrick Murray explained that the extension of bonus depreciation is a positive development that helps align per-share growth with EBITDA growth and provides more confidence in the outlook for the latter half of the decade.

Praneeth Satish asked if Enbridge could be involved in the Homer City data center project in Pennsylvania, given the proximity of its Texas Eastern (TETCO) pipeline. He also sought clarification on the quarterly earnings seasonality chart, noting it appeared steeper than anticipated.

Answer

Cynthia Hansen, EVP of Gas Transmission, declined to comment on specific negotiations but confirmed TETCO is well-positioned with significant underutilized capacity in the region and that Enbridge is in active discussions with data center developers. CFO Pat Murray explained the seasonality chart is illustrative, not formal guidance, and is meant to help model the impact of the newly acquired U.S. utilities, which, like other parts of the business, have a Q1/Q4 weighted earnings profile.

Praneeth Satish questioned how emerging data center opportunities might impact the LDC CapEx profile and how regulatory and public perception of this new demand is evolving. He also asked for a quantification of the remaining headroom within the Mainline's ROE collar.

Answer

CFO Pat Murray indicated that while it's early, data center demand creates an upward bias to the LDC capital forecast. Michele Harradence, EVP of Gas Distribution and Storage, added that this growth is considered upside and can be funded via quick-cycle capital mechanisms. Colin Gruending, EVP of Liquids Pipelines, stated that the Mainline is earning just above the midpoint of its ROE collar in 2024, with earnings expected to approach the top of the range by 2026.

Praneeth Satish inquired about TC Energy's long-term EBITDA growth trajectory beyond 2028, the sustainability of its mid-single-digit CAGR guidance, and the future CapEx capacity, particularly with Bruce Power. He also asked about the potential to scale CapEx beyond the $6 billion-$7 billion range as leverage trends lower and the company's long-term CapEx cadence.

Answer

Sean O’Donnell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, highlighted the critical role of maintaining high Internal Rates of Return (IRRs) around 12.5% for capital allocation in 2029-2030, noting that projects are becoming larger and more complex, requiring more time for clarity. François Poirier, President and Chief Executive Officer, stated the goal is to fill the $6 billion project backlog through 2030 within 12 months. He emphasized that any increase above $6 billion would depend on human capital capacity and maintaining the 4.75x debt-to-EBITDA target, suggesting such an increase could realistically occur by 2028 or 2029.

Praneeth Satish inquired about TC Energy's long-term EBITDA growth trajectory beyond 2028, specifically whether the current mid-single-digit CAGR guidance can be sustained, considering the large gas backlog, increasing ROIC, and future CapEx capacity from Bruce Power. He also asked if there's room to scale annual CapEx beyond $6 billion, potentially to $7 billion or $8 billion, as leverage trends lower.

Answer

Sean O’Donnell (EVP and CFO) explained that sustaining growth depends on maintaining high return levels (around 12.5% IRR) for larger, more complex projects, which take longer to develop. François Poirier (President and CEO) clarified that the goal is to fill the $6 billion project backlog through 2030 within 12 months, then consider exceeding that level, provided human capital and the 4.75x debt-to-EBITDA target are maintained. He noted that any increase would likely be post-2028 or 2029 due to project development and permitting timelines.

Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo inquired about the specifics of the Columbia Gas rate settlement, particularly the conditions for rate step-ups, and asked about TC Energy's capacity to serve significant potential demand growth in New Albany, Ohio, from data centers.

Answer

EVP & COO Tina Faraca explained that the settlement in principle for Columbia Gas establishes interim rates reflecting a 26% increase to pre-filed rates, with further details on the rate step-ups to be provided in the final FERC filing. Regarding New Albany, she stated that TC Energy is in a strong position with existing pipelines and is prepared to expand capacity to meet growing demand from data centers and other customers in the region.

Praneeth Satish inquired about TC Energy's capital expenditure strategy, asking if the company would consider increasing its annual CapEx beyond the stated range for high-return U.S. gas projects, provided it remains leverage-neutral. He also sought clarification on the payment mechanics and in-service timing for the Southeast Gateway project.

Answer

CEO Francois Poirier stated that while opportunities are accelerating, the company will prioritize human capital and project execution excellence before considering CapEx above the $6 billion annual target for 2025-2026, reaffirming the 4.75x debt-to-EBITDA target as a firm commitment. Tina Faraca, President, U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines, explained that for Southeast Gateway, invoicing will begin after receiving the final CNE regulatory approval, expected by the end of May. Francois Poirier added that a tollage adjustment mechanism protects the project's NPV, and CNE approval is a mandatory prerequisite for commencing service.

Praneeth Satish inquired about the Southeast Gateway (SGP) project's in-service date, contractual protections against downstream delays, and the company's strategy for integrated gas-to-power projects to serve data center demand.

Answer

Retiring executive Stanley Chapman confirmed the May 1 in-service date for SGP is aligned with CFE, noting contractual payments are not tied to downstream availability and CFE has budgetary approval. President and CEO Francois Poirier and EVP & COO of Natural Gas Pipelines Tina Faraca detailed their bullish outlook on data center demand, highlighting their footprint's proximity to new developments and their strategy to pursue both utility-partnered and direct-connect projects.

Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo Securities inquired about TC Energy's 2025 leverage outlook following recent positive developments and asked if the NGTL indigenous partnership sets a precedent and a valuation floor for future asset sales.

Answer

President and CEO Francois Poirier confirmed the company is on track for its 2024 leverage target and outlined three levers for managing 2025: EBITDA outperformance, CapEx discipline, and further asset sales at compelling valuations. He also affirmed the NGTL indigenous partnership could serve as a template for future deals, with valuations remaining asset-specific but supported by a robust M&A environment.

Praneeth Satish asked about the procurement cycle for turbines for power projects, specifically if orders have been placed for long lead time items for late 2027 or 2028 deliveries, and if new projects are shifting towards 2028. He also inquired about the revised scope of the Power Express project, the drivers behind the reduction, and its impact on returns and in-service dates.

Answer

President and CEO Chad Zamarin stated that new power projects are likely layering into late 2027 and 2028, and the company feels confident in its positioning with strategic partners for equipment needs through the end of the decade. COO Larry Larsen explained the Power Express scope revision was driven by optimizing design and aligning with customer needs, with contracts for the full 689 MMcf/d, and returns remaining in the same range. He noted the FERC process would likely start next year. Mr. Zamarin added that natural gas demand continues to outpace pipeline capacity development.

Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo & Company asked about Williams' progress in the procurement cycle for turbines for its FID power projects, specifically if orders have been placed for long lead time items for projects coming online in late 2027 or 2028. He also questioned the reasons behind the revised scope reduction for the Power Express project to 689 MMcf/d, its impact on returns, and the in-service date.

Answer

President and CEO Chad Zamarin indicated that new power projects are likely slotting into late 2027 and 2028, and the company feels confident in its strategic positioning with equipment and service providers to meet needs through the end of the decade. COO Larry Larsen explained that the Power Express scope adjustment was driven by optimizing design to align with anchor customer needs and their power generation requirements, confirming that contracts are in place for the 689 MMcf/d. Mr. Larsen assured that returns remain in the same range despite the scope change, with the FERC process expected to begin next year. Mr. Zamarin added that natural gas demand continues to outpace pipeline capacity development.

Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo asked if the 5-7% long-term EBITDA CAGR guidance is conservative given the recent 9% CAGR and strong project pipeline. He also requested an update on two new behind-the-meter power projects, including their timeline, location, and economics.

Answer

President & CEO Chad Zamarin acknowledged the company's strong performance and favorable tailwinds, suggesting the business is positioned to exceed historical growth rates, with more details to come at the 2026 Analyst Day. He confirmed they expect to commercialize two more power projects in H2 2025, targeting another gigawatt of capacity by 2027 with economics similar to the Socrates project.

Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo inquired about the potential for Williams to exceed its 5-7% EBITDA CAGR guidance given the strong project pipeline, and asked for an update on behind-the-meter power projects beyond Socrates.

Answer

President & CEO Chad Zamarin acknowledged that the company's fundamentals and tailwinds are stronger than ever, suggesting the business is positioned to exceed historical growth rates, with more details to come at the early 2026 Analyst Day. He also confirmed that Williams expects to commercialize up to another gigawatt of power projects in the second half of the year, with economics similar to the Socrates project.

Praneeth Satish inquired about two new behind-the-meter power projects, asking if their size and returns would be similar to the Socrates project and when an FID might be expected. He also asked for the strategic rationale behind the Cogentrix investment beyond market intelligence.

Answer

EVP Chad Zamarin confirmed the new power projects are expected to have similarly attractive returns to Socrates and will be commercialized later in the year. CEO Alan Armstrong clarified the Cogentrix investment is a strategic move to gain insight into the evolving Northeast power market and its gas supply needs, not a broader shift into merchant power generation.

Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo & Company asked for details on the scale and scalability of the initial behind-the-meter data center project, given supply chain constraints, and questioned the unchanged 2025 CapEx guidance and the company's willingness to increase spending for high-return projects.

Answer

CEO Alan Armstrong confirmed the initial data center project is a "very meaningful capital project" not yet in the current plan and will come online faster than typical transmission projects. He and EVP Chad Zamarin acknowledged that power generation equipment is a likely constraint but noted Williams' strong supplier relationships provide an advantage. Armstrong stated that while there is capacity to increase CapEx for attractive returns, the company will remain disciplined, will not stretch the balance sheet, and will continue to avoid equity issuances.

Praneeth Satish asked if increased competition for pipeline capacity is leading to higher renewal rates or a shift to negotiated rates. He also questioned how the company plans to fund its large pipeline of growth projects and if it would consider becoming free cash flow neutral to accelerate CapEx.

Answer

CEO Alan Armstrong explained that for existing capacity, regulations limit rate increases, with competition manifesting as longer contract terms rather than higher prices. The primary growth opportunity comes from high-return expansions on their existing footprint. He dismissed the need to alter capital strategy, stating that the high-return projects (sub-4x multiples) generate substantial EBITDA, which in turn expands borrowing capacity and self-funds future growth without stressing the balance sheet.

Praneeth Satish asked for more details on the Q1 2026 preliminary revenue outlook of $250 million, specifically how the expected decline in the U.S. post-25D tax credit is being sized. He also inquired about the Q4 2025 battery guidance showing a 50 MWh drop and whether the Q1 2026 battery outlook assumes market share gains from the IQ Battery 10C launch.

Answer

President and CEO Badri Kothandaraman stated that the $250 million for Q1 2026 is a preliminary view based on a rolling six-quarter forecasting process, acknowledging market uncertainty. He attributed the Q4 battery guidance to destocking for a healthy channel and expects batteries to perform well in Q1 2026, being less impacted by the 25D credit expiration due to 48E compliance, domestic content, and reduced installation costs with the IQ meter collar.

Praneeth Satish asked for more details on Enphase Energy's Q1 2026 outlook of $250 million, specifically how the expected decline in the U.S. post-25(d) tax credit was sized and if real-time demand changes were observed. He also questioned the 50 MWh drop in Q4 2025 battery guidance and whether the Q1 2026 battery outlook assumes any market share gains from the IQ Battery 10C launch.

Answer

Badri Kothandaraman, President and CEO, stated that the $250 million for Q1 2026 is a preliminary view based on a rolling six-quarter forecasting process, acknowledging the inherent uncertainty. He attributed the Q4 battery guidance drop to destocking efforts to ensure a healthy channel for 2026. Mr. Kothandaraman expects batteries to perform well in Q1 2026 due to 48E benefits, FIOC compliance, domestic content, 39 utility qualifications for the IQ meter collar, and reduced installation costs, despite high tariffs, as Enphase maintains pricing to gain share.

Praneeth Satish inquired about Enphase's plans to partner with Third-Party Ownership (TPO) providers on new financing structures for long-tail installers, the company's current TPO market share, and its strategy for managing elevated microinverter channel inventory ahead of the 25D tax credit expiration.

Answer

President & CEO Badri Kothandaraman stated that Enphase is in deep discussions with all TPO partners to bring lease financing to its long-tail installer base, with more details to come on a future call. He explained that the company's strategy to mitigate a potential 20% drop in the 2026 Total Addressable Market (TAM) involves facilitating lease financing, driving down installation costs with new products like the fifth-gen battery, and reducing customer acquisition costs. Kothandaraman also noted that he expects the elevated microinverter channel inventory to normalize organically by year-end due to an anticipated demand pull-forward from the expiring 25D credit.

Praneeth Satish asked about the Q2 gross margin guidance, specifically why Enphase is absorbing most of the new tariff costs on batteries rather than passing them on, and whether the Q2 demand forecast accounts for IRA uncertainty or exposure to a financially challenged lease provider.

Answer

President and CEO Badri Kothandaraman explained that while microinverters are largely unaffected, batteries are impacted by tariffs on Chinese cell packs. Enphase will absorb most of the cost because they have a clear plan to qualify non-China cell sources and fully offset the impact by Q2 2026. He noted that the Q2 demand guidance is supported by 80% bookings, favorable seasonality, and the ramp-up of the new, lower-cost 4th-generation battery system.

Praneeth Satish asked about the timing of the fourth-generation battery pilot, its expected ramp-up schedule, and the reason for the accelerated product development cycle, with a fifth-generation battery planned just a year after the fourth. He also questioned if this faster cadence would lead to sustained gross margin growth for the battery segment.

Answer

President and CEO Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman clarified the fourth-gen pilot was always planned for Q1 and expects a ramp in Q2, taking a few quarters to reach a majority of the sales mix. He explained the product cycle acceleration is due to the team's growing expertise and concurrent work on 'N and N+1' products. He stated that a steady 12-to-18-month cadence of new, more cost-effective batteries is the new expectation, which supports the goal of continuous margin improvement.

Praneeth Satish inquired if the T1 Energy partnership serves as a blueprint for future deals with other U.S. solar manufacturers and explored opportunities to integrate steel frame designs with tracker products for enhanced performance.

Answer

Dan Shugar, CEO and Founder, affirmed the universal need for advanced module frames due to larger panel sizes, noting positive market reception. He highlighted the potential for co-optimizing frames with tracker systems, drawing an analogy to unibody car design for integrated structural elements, which provides greater mechanical stability and functionality.

Praneeth Satish inquired if the T1 Energy partnership serves as a blueprint for future deals with other U.S. solar manufacturers and explored opportunities to design new tracker products that better integrate steel frame designs for enhanced overall performance.

Answer

CEO and Founder Dan Shugar stated that the need for advanced module frames is universal due to larger panel sizes requiring more mechanical stability and functionality. He noted positive market reaction to their advanced module frame business and sees the T1 deal as beneficial for owners (durability), module manufacturers (domestic sourcing, tax credits), and EPCs (easier handling). He confirmed opportunities to co-optimize frames with tracker systems, drawing an analogy to unibody cars, to reduce parts count and enhance overall performance.

Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo asked about the business model for Nextracker's new AI and robotics ventures, specifically whether it would be a recurring service or an equipment sale, and how these acquisitions integrate with the existing TrueCapture software.

Answer

Founder and CEO Dan Shugar explained that the go-to-market strategy varies. He noted that drone technology from the SenseHawk IP acquisition is already integrated with TrueCapture to create digital twins of sites. Other technologies, like robotic cleaning and on-site monitoring, are either commercially available or in advanced productization, with more details on integration to be provided later.

Praneeth Satish inquired about the go-to-market strategy for the combined tracker and eBOS offering, asking if revenue could scale immediately in fiscal 2026 or if it would be a more gradual ramp.

Answer

President Howard Wenger and CEO Dan Shugar confirmed that Bentek has existing bookings and spare capacity, allowing for an immediate start. Wenger stated, 'We do think that we can increase their run rate this year.' An executive also clarified that customer demand extends beyond eBOS, supporting a broader systems-oriented platform strategy.

Praneeth Satish followed up on backlog conversion, asking if the 80-90% range is a good way to model the metric's variability and if there's potential for it to exceed 90% with more regulatory clarity.

Answer

Howard Wenger, President, agreed that 80-90% is a good range to consider for the backlog conversion metric. He explained that the key point is the vast majority is realized in the next eight quarters, with most of that in the next four. He noted that multi-year VCA agreements contribute to the back end, but as projects are perfected, they move into the near-term bucket, keeping the metric consistent over time.

Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo & Company noted the backlog conversion timeline improved, with 90% now expected to be realized in 8 quarters, up from 80%. He asked what is driving this acceleration, whether it's a higher mix of faster-converting international projects or improvements on the U.S. side.

Answer

President Howard Wenger confirmed the improvement and stated that the acceleration is due to both factors. He explained that the company is receiving new orders with shorter delivery horizons from both U.S. and international customers, which caused the metric to improve from 80% to 90% of backlog converting to revenue over the next eight quarters.

Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo & Company asked for a bridge to 2026 EBITDA considering various headwinds and tailwinds, and sought more granularity on the recontracting of expiring Peace Pipeline capacity and its relation to the Fox Creek to Namao expansion.

Answer

SVP & CFO Cameron Goldade reiterated the 4-6% fee-based EBITDA per share growth target through 2026, acknowledging the Alliance settlement as a headwind but emphasizing the team's focus on finding new growth opportunities. Regarding the pipeline, he noted the extended contract life implies significant recontracting has occurred. SVP & COO Jaret Sprott clarified that the Fox Creek to Namao expansion is driven by new contracts to meet rising C3+ demand, not by blending and extending legacy contracts.

Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo asked about the timeline for new Alliance tolls to take effect and whether any potential impact is contained within the current guidance range. He also requested an update on the Greenlight data center project, specifically on turbine procurement.

Answer

CEO J. Burrows stated that the timing of new Alliance tolls is part of ongoing confidential negotiations and declined to comment on the 2025 guidance impact. SVP Chris Scherman reported that the Greenlight projects are progressing well, with a focus on interconnection applications. While no long-lead turbine orders have been placed, Pembina is actively engaged with suppliers and aware of cost and timing dynamics.

Praneeth Satish questioned Pembina's share of capital expenditure for the Greenlight project, its timing, and the expected return profile compared to traditional midstream investments, including whether it would be contracted or have merchant exposure.

Answer

Executive Stu Taylor confirmed a 50% share of the project, with each 450 MW phase costing approximately $1.5 billion, targeting an FID in 2026 for a 2029-2030 in-service date. Cameron Goldade, SVP & CFO, added that the project aligns with Pembina's free cash flow profile and that base returns would be consistent with midstream infrastructure, underpinned by a long-term contract.

Praneeth Satish asked for an update on the Cedar LNG project, specifically regarding the progress of reassigning capacity to third parties. He also questioned the current utilization of the Vantage pipeline, its expansion potential, and its role in fulfilling the Dow ethane supply contract.

Answer

Executive Stu Taylor stated that interest in Cedar LNG capacity is high following the positive Final Investment Decision (FID), with a target to complete marketing efforts in 2024. President and CEO J. Burrows explained that the Vantage pipeline is one of three options being evaluated to meet the Dow contract, alongside ethane from the RFS complex and mainline extraction. He noted a decision on the most capital-efficient approach would be provided in the coming quarters.

Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo sought clarification on the 2025 cash tax reduction and its impact on capital allocation. He also asked for more detail on the metallurgical analysis findings for the Milepost 171 incident and how they differ from the broader root cause analysis.

Answer

SVP & CFO Van Dafoe corrected the cash tax savings figure to $15 million (not $50 million), noting it adds to distributable cash flow for growth or deleveraging. SVP & COO Richard Prior explained the metallurgical analysis is a component of the full root cause analysis and confirmed the failure was an axial crack on a long seam weld, adding that current findings do not suggest a broad systemic issue.

Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo sought to quantify the cash spent on safe harboring and asked about plans to continue the strategy. He also inquired about the current recurring revenue from grid services and the potential timeline for securitizing that cash flow stream.

Answer

CFO Danny Abajian confirmed Sunrun intends to pursue more safe harboring, pending Treasury guidance. President & CRO Paul Dickson noted they are beating the $2,000 NPV target for grid services. CFO Abajian added that as the grid services value scales to hundreds of millions, financing options will become more apparent.

Praneeth Satish asked for clarification on the company's $350 million safe harbor equipment purchase and its capital allocation priorities for the $200-$500 million in projected 2025 cash generation.

Answer

CFO Danny Abajian explained that the safe harbor calculation is complex, based on the fair market value of projects, not just a simple division of the purchase amount. Regarding capital allocation, he stated the priority is deleveraging to a target of 1.5-3x free cash flow, with the announced $100 million debt paydown being a floor, not a ceiling.

Praneeth Satish asked for details on the economics of the new homes market, questioning how its cash generation profile compares to the traditional residential channel. He also inquired about the framework for deciding whether to retain the benefit of the domestic content ITC adder or share it with customers.

Answer

President and CRO Paul Dickson confirmed the new homes channel is a more efficient model with anticipated improved margins as it scales. CFO Danny Abajian clarified the ITC adder strategy, explaining it's not a 'keep versus share' decision but a 'margin target setting exercise.' Pricing is determined through a granular analysis of market dynamics, product value, and competitive positioning to achieve attractive margins while offering a good value proposition.

Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo questioned the strategy of booking international Series 6 volume at $0.32-$0.33 per watt instead of waiting for potentially higher prices for U.S. Series 7 capacity in 2027 and beyond, especially with the pending Section 232 polysilicon investigation.

Answer

CEO Mark Widmar explained the bookings were strategic, allowing First Solar to clear out international inventory, avoid storage costs, and secure 'safe harbor' positions at the inverter level for larger projects. He noted this positions them strongly to capture the full project volume later, as mixing First Solar's technology with crystalline silicon is difficult and costly for customers.

Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo & Company asked about the rationale and timing of GIP's complete exit from its Hess Midstream investment and how the company's governance structure will ensure balance without GIP's presence.

Answer

CEO Jonathan Stein clarified that GIP's exit was driven by market demand and their own fund timeline, independent of the Chevron merger. He detailed the updated governance structure, which now requires approval from an independent director for key strategic decisions, preserving the company's historically balanced governance model.

Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo questioned the timing of GIP's exit from its investment in May and asked about the new governance structure designed to balance sponsor interests without GIP's presence.

Answer

CEO Jonathan Stein explained that GIP's exit was driven by a market opportunity and was part of their disciplined sell-down strategy, independent of the Chevron merger timing. He emphasized the company's commitment to balanced governance, highlighting a new mechanism requiring independent director approval for key strategic decisions, ensuring continued alignment with public shareholders.

Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo asked about the recovery cadence for gas processing volumes into April following the Q1 weather-related shortfall. He also sought to understand the oil price level at which Hess might consider reducing its rig program from four to three rigs.

Answer

John Gatling, President and COO, confirmed a strong volume recovery in March and expressed optimism about meeting full-year guidance. On rig count, Gatling explained that the company looks past short-term price volatility and that improving well economics from longer laterals are lowering breakeven prices, reducing sensitivity. CFO Jonathan Stein added that the company is well-positioned for both growth and stability.

Praneeth Satish questioned how HESM's 10% volume growth outlook for 2025 reconciles with forecasts of flat basin-wide oil production and asked about the expected cadence of growth. He also inquired about where M&A fits within the company's financial flexibility priorities.

Answer

President and COO John Gatling explained that HESM's growth is driven by the superior quality of the rock under its infrastructure, allowing Hess to outpace the basin average. CFO Jonathan Stein added that the growth cadence is fairly steady for gas, while oil growth is more weighted to 2025. Regarding M&A, Gatling stated the focus remains on strategic bolt-ons, and Stein confirmed that while they have the financial capacity, the bar for acquisitions is high relative to the existing return of capital program.

Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo asked if Canadian Solar would pause construction on its Indiana and Kentucky facilities pending clarity on FEOC rules, given the unchanged CapEx guidance. He also asked if rising PPA prices in the U.S. provide more headroom for Recurrent Energy to absorb costs and if this changes its asset ownership strategy.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Dr. Shawn Qu explained that Phase 1 of the Jeffersonville, Indiana facility will proceed as equipment is already procured, but decisions on Phase 2 will await policy clarity later in the year. Corporate VP and President of Recurrent Energy Ismael Arias confirmed the market remains attractive and that decisions to hold or sell assets are made continuously based on capital availability and project status.

Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo & Company asked for clarity on the significant acceleration in module shipments expected in the second half of 2025, given market pressures. He also sought details on the 2025 cell capacity outlook, specifically the TOPCon versus PERC mix and the inclusion of the new Indiana facility.

Answer

Yan Zhuang, President of CSI Solar, explained that the margin ramp is supported by stabilizing global prices, growing storage shipments, and an increased focus on high-value channels and bundled solutions. CEO Shawn Qu clarified that the 36 GW cell capacity for 2025 reflects the phasing out of PERC technology and is mainly TOPCon. He added that the Indiana facility will begin contributing to shipments in 2026.

Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo & Company asked how Canadian Solar intends to maintain its U.S. market share following the 80% preliminary antidumping duties, questioning the balance between building U.S. manufacturing and raising prices. He also sought clarity on the assumptions behind the 2025 module shipment guidance.

Answer

CEO Shawn Qu corrected the U.S. market share to be around 20% and outlined a multi-pronged strategy: utilizing the Texas module factory with cells from Thailand, building a new cell factory in Indiana, and leveraging third-party suppliers. He noted the 2025 guidance of 30-35 GW balances market share retention with margin protection. Qu also expressed confidence regarding potential FEOC rules, citing the company's Canadian ownership.

Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo followed up on competition, asking specifically if the WaterBridge pipeline open season impacts Aris's development timeline for McNeil Ranch, and questioned the assumptions for interruptible volumes within the Q2 guidance.

Answer

President and CEO Amanda Brock reiterated that Aris's long-term customer contracts on dedicated acreage insulate them from such competitive pressures. Founder and Executive Chairman Bill Zartler added that their integrated system of gathering, recycling, and disposal is complex and provides a unique advantage. Regarding guidance, executive David Tuerff and CEO Amanda Brock clarified that Q2 guidance is based primarily on contracted volumes, with very little interruptible volume modeled in, viewing any such volumes as a bonus.

Praneeth Satish asked for an estimate of the capital expenditure required to develop the McNeill Ranch and inquired about customer commitments for the large-scale beneficial reuse project.

Answer

President and CEO Amanda Brock clarified that CapEx for the ranch will be phased and not a single large outlay, unlike a peer's recent announcement. CFO Stephan Tompsett reiterated that any investment will be underwritten by contracts. Regarding beneficial reuse, Brock confirmed significant customer interest and that the project will be developed with partners, with Aris's role focused on technology, design, and operations.

Praneeth Satish sought to clarify if the preliminary 2025 mid-single-digit growth outlook includes contributions from new customers. He also asked about the framework for the potential dividend increase, questioning if it would be a significant step-up.

Answer

Executive William Zartler clarified that the early 2025 growth outlook is based on visibility from existing customers and contracts alone. Regarding the dividend, he stated that while an increase is being considered, the company is focused on long-term, sustainable growth in line with the business, not a dramatic step-change in the payout.

Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo questioned whether the company's underlying assumptions for project delays have improved, given the positive commentary on full 2025 construction calendars. He also followed up on the hyperscaler BESS win, asking about the pipeline, margin profile, and broader interest from data centers in solar and storage.

Answer

CFO Dominic Bardos stated he remains 'cautiously optimistic,' acknowledging that if positive trends persist, the company could reach the high end of its guidance, but it is prudent to maintain the current range. CEO Brandon Moss clarified the hyperscaler win was a direct sale, not through an OEM, and reiterated that the BESS business is expected to generate accretive margins for the company.

Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo asked about the decline in the backlog-to-revenue conversion ratio for the next 12 months and whether it was due to longer project cycles or international bookings. He also inquired about early customer feedback on the 2kV product.

Answer

CFO Dominic Bardos confirmed that project timelines are elongating, with lead times now exceeding 13 months, and that the company is winning business further out, which impacts the conversion ratio. Regarding the 2kV product, CEO Brandon Moss mentioned a pilot site is underway, and CFO Bardos added that broad commercialization is pending regulatory approval.

Praneeth Satish asked what drove the improvement in the percentage of the order book converting to revenue in the next 12 months and how revenue conversion cycles differ across new verticals like C&I and BESS.

Answer

CFO Dominic Bardos attributed the improvement to a healthier, more vetted order book following industry shakeout and clearer customer timelines. He detailed that C&I has a shorter conversion cycle and BESS is also quick, while international is longer than the domestic utility-scale business. He noted that overall conversion cycles are not worsening.

Asked if the latest domestic content rules would change their equipment sourcing decisions, whether they felt the need to safe harbor products before the April 15 deadline, and what their capacity for safe-harboring is.

Answer

Management stated that while they prefer consistency in the rules, manufacturers have been nimble and adaptive, so they expect the overall domestic content percentage to be close to previous expectations. They are currently evaluating the need to safe harbor equipment. They also expressed pride in their leadership on domestic content, which has brought jobs to the U.S.

Asked if tax equity investors are recognizing O&M cost improvements, the sustainable long-term O&M structure, the progress on transitioning dealers to a new payment structure, and the potential working capital benefit.

Answer

The company sees continued opportunity to lower O&M and G&A costs. Tax equity investors are mainly concerned that service fees are appropriate, which they are. The company expects to move 100% of dealers to the new payment structure, which improves working capital, though this benefit is not fully baked into the 2025 guidance.

Asked about the assumptions (advance rates, number of ABS deals) in the liquidity forecast and the status of a potential At-The-Market (ATM) equity program.

Answer

The company confirmed the liquidity forecast is conservative and does not assume improvements in advance rates or ITC adders, meaning there is potential upside. They also stated that there is no ATM program filed.

Inquired about the impact of a new project on CapEx guidance, the likelihood of spending the budgeted amount for CCS projects, and the potential for further contract repricing uplifts in Louisiana.

Answer

2024 CapEx guidance is unchanged as the new project was anticipated. The budgeted $50M for CCS is less likely to be fully spent this year, potentially boosting FCFAD. The major contract repricing uplift in Louisiana was realized in 2024, with only marginal uplifts expected in 2025.

The analyst asked how ExxonMobil is deciding between using EnLink versus Denbury for CCS projects and inquired about the commercial viability, cost, and potential structure of the proposed natural gas storage expansion in Louisiana.

Answer

The company explained that the collaboration with ExxonMobil is about finding the most optimal and mutually beneficial solutions by potentially combining EnLink and Denbury assets. Regarding gas storage, market interest is high, and current rates support an attractive expansion of about 9 Bcf, primarily through capital-efficient brownfield projects leveraging existing infrastructure.

Asked to quantify the EBITDA impact of 2024 hedges and for clarification on the 2024 Oklahoma volume outlook, including current rig count and reasons for expecting stable rather than growing volumes.

Answer

The impact of lower 2024 hedge prices is already factored into the modest growth outlook and does not change the company's trajectory. The Oklahoma volume outlook depends on activity beyond the Devon/Dow JV, which is not yet fully clear; there are currently 4 rigs on the system.