Rajat Gupta

Rajat Gupta asked about the new car business's unit sales being weaker than peers but with better profitability, inquiring if it was a strategic trade-off or due to market dynamics. He also questioned the cadence of profitability for AutoNation Finance, including the balance between penetration pace and portfolio maturity, net interest margin, and loss ratios.

Answer

CEO Mike Manley explained that the new car performance was influenced by a reduction in OEM dealer-facing incentives, particularly for hybrid and battery electric vehicles, and a significant 60% reduction in EV volume. He noted the company's focus on balancing market share with margin. CFO Tom Szlosek and CEO Mike Manley discussed AutoNation Finance's strong growth, with Q4 2025 operating profit of $6 million serving as a good starting point for 2026. They expressed confidence in net interest margin and stated that expected delinquency growth as the portfolio matures is factored into their models. Mike Manley added that AN Finance partners with OEM captives and focuses on non-subsidized new vehicles and used vehicles within their established buy box, with continued headroom for penetration.

Rajat Gupta asked about AutoNation's new car business unit sales being weaker than peers, questioning if it was a strategic trade-off for profitability or due to brand/regional mix. He also inquired about the expected profitability cadence for AutoNation Finance, including net interest margin and loss ratios.

Answer

CEO Michael Manley attributed weaker new car unit sales to reduced OEM dealer-facing incentives, especially for electrified vehicles, and a significant 60% drop in EV volume, reflecting a balance between volume and margin. CFO Thomas Szlosek highlighted AutoNation Finance's strong growth and expected continued income improvement through 2026, with stable net interest margins and managed delinquency rates normalizing to 3%. Manley added that AutoNation Finance focuses on competitive segments like used vehicles and non-subsidized new vehicles, with further penetration opportunities.

Rajat Gupta posed a high-level question regarding auto credit trends, seeking insights into any concerning data within the loan book, such as delinquencies, losses, or consumer health in specific cohorts. He also requested an update on initiatives to improve the used car business's growth and profitability, and whether acceleration is expected in coming quarters.

Answer

CFO Tom Szlosek affirmed confidence in the AutoNation Finance portfolio, highlighting outstanding growth, minimized equity, and credit performance (delinquencies, loss rates by vintage) aligning with expectations. He noted no acceleration in adverse metrics like repossessions. CEO Mike Manley addressed the used car business, confirming growth above industry averages with relatively stable margins. He stated the company is maintaining higher stock levels to improve turn rates, accepting a temporary depreciation effect on margins in Q4. Manley emphasized ongoing progress and numerous initiatives, while acknowledging the possibility of rebalancing inventory if market conditions do not yield desired results.

Rajat Gupta inquired about high-level auto credit trends, specifically if AutoNation's loan book data or performance raised any concerns regarding consumer health, losses, or delinquencies within the quarter or specific consumer cohorts, given recent headlines. He also asked for an update on initiatives to improve the used car business, both growth and profitability, and if acceleration in growth is expected in the coming quarters.

Answer

CFO Tom Szlosek expressed confidence in the AN Finance portfolio, noting that growth, financing levels, and portfolio performance (delinquencies, loss rates, write-offs by vintage) were in line with expectations, with no acceleration in negative trends. CEO Mike Manley stated that AutoNation is growing its used car business above the industry, maintaining stable margins despite some downward pressure. He detailed the strategy of holding higher stock levels to work on turn rates, acknowledging the temporary depreciation effect on margins, and expressed bullishness on used car volumes due to strong sourcing and physical presence.

Rajat Gupta from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the drivers behind the sales pickup in July, the demand outlook amid tariff resolutions, and the potential impact on dealer margins. He also followed up on the growth and profitability outlook for the AN Finance portfolio.

Answer

CEO Michael Manley expressed continued optimism for a 5% industry sales improvement for the full year and expects margin stability, though with some fluctuations. CFO Thomas Szlosek added that sales activity appeared to be normalizing in July after some pull-back from a strong April. Regarding AN Finance, Szlosek anticipates continued growth in penetration and profitability as the portfolio scales, a sentiment echoed by Manley, who highlighted the capital flexibility gained from the successful ABS issuance.

Rajat Gupta asked how OEM efforts to remain competitive amid tariffs might impact dealer front-end gross profits and whether dealers would be expected to absorb some of the cost. He also questioned what drove AN Finance to achieve profitability ahead of schedule and what its earnings trajectory might look like going forward.

Answer

CEO Mike Manley stated that he expects OEMs to use net transaction price increases as a last resort, instead looking to the entire value chain for support. He believes dealers will be asked to participate in a balanced way to protect mutual market share. Regarding AN Finance, Manley credited the team's execution, SG&A leverage, and improved credit quality from shedding a legacy portfolio. CFO Tom Szlosek confirmed the current book is clean and that they expect profitability to continue improving from this new baseline.

Rajat Gupta from JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned the funding requirements for AutoNation Finance in 2025, particularly the amount of equity needed. He also sought more detail on the mid-single-digit growth outlook for the Parts & Services business and the underlying technician headcount assumptions.

Answer

CFO Tom Szlosek stated that non-recourse funding for AN Finance is expected to increase from its current 75% level, reducing the need for equity capital, especially with a planned ABS offering. CEO Mike Manley added that After-Sales growth is focused on the 3-7 year old vehicle segment, but the primary constraint is technician hiring. He noted headcount grew 2-3% in 2024 and the goal is to accelerate that growth.

Rajat Gupta from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about capital allocation, questioning if the high percentage of free cash flow used for buybacks is a new norm or if a pivot towards M&A is likely given improving deal valuations. He also requested color on the used vehicle business's recovery trend post-CDK outage.

Answer

CFO Tom Szlosek clarified that the high buyback ratio was influenced by a challenging M&A environment, which he now sees thawing, suggesting a more balanced approach going forward. CEO Mike Manley added that deal prices are becoming more attractive and the company is better able to identify synergistic acquisitions. Regarding used cars, Manley stated that performance improved progressively through the quarter as inventory was rebuilt, positioning them well for Q4.

Rajat Gupta from JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned the weaker-than-expected customer pay growth in parts and service for Q4 2025, asking if management was satisfied and for the outlook for 2026. He also inquired about the renewed strategy for parts and service and sought an update on leverage reduction targets, including the timeline for reaching below 3x, and free cash flow deployment priorities for 2026.

Answer

COO Dan Clara stated dissatisfaction with customer pay growth but expressed confidence in a renewed strategy for fixed operations, maintaining a mid-single-digit forecast for customer pay. President and CEO David Hult attributed the Q4 weakness to consumers spending less per ticket in October/November, despite normal traffic, and highlighted the impact of Tekion rollout on efficiency. SVP and CFO Michael Welch explained that nine divestitures closing in Q1 2026 would accelerate leverage reduction, aiming for below 3x by summer, balancing this with share buybacks, with a year-end target of below 3x.

Rajat Gupta from JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned the weaker-than-expected customer pay growth in parts and service, asking if management was satisfied and for an outlook on 2026, including details on their renewed strategy. He also inquired about the timeline for reducing net leverage below 3x, considering planned divestitures, and the priorities for free cash flow deployment in 2026.

Answer

COO Dan Clara expressed dissatisfaction with customer pay growth, highlighting a renewed strategy for fixed operations targeting mid-single-digit growth by leveraging vehicle age and technology. President and CEO David Hult noted a consumer pullback in spending during October/November 2025, despite normal traffic, and emphasized the long-term efficiency and productivity benefits expected from the Tekion DMS rollout by late 2026. SVP and CFO Michael Welch stated that with Q1 divestitures, leverage could fall below 3x by summer 2026, with a year-end target balancing debt reduction and share repurchases.

Rajat Gupta asked for clarification on the total contribution from acquisitions net of divestitures, specifically the annualized run rate EBITDA from the Herb Chambers deal and other transactions. He also inquired about the company's updated capital allocation priorities, particularly the balance between deleveraging, share repurchases, and M&A.

Answer

Michael Welch (SVP and CFO) confirmed the annualized run rate EBITDA net of divestitures is likely slightly above the estimated $100 million. David Hult (President and CEO) outlined capital allocation priorities, stating a heavier focus on share repurchases if the share price is attractive, otherwise debt reduction, emphasizing these priorities could shift based on market conditions.

Rajat Gupta sought to clarify the total contribution from acquisitions, net of divestitures, specifically the annualized run rate EBITDA from the Herb Chambers deal. He also asked for a rank order of capital allocation priorities going forward, including deleveraging, share repurchases, and M&A.

Answer

Michael Welch, SVP and CFO, confirmed the annualized run rate EBITDA from acquisitions net of divestitures is likely a touch above the estimated $100 million ballpark. David Hult, President and CEO, stated that share repurchases would likely be the number one priority if the share price is attractive, followed by debt reduction, but these could trade places depending on market conditions. He emphasized the company's strong cash generation.

Rajat Gupta of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the Herb Chambers acquisition, asking about potential synergy opportunities given its strong SG&A profile. He also asked if Parts & Services can maintain mid-single-digit growth despite tough warranty comps and clarified the margin profile of warranty versus customer-pay work.

Answer

President & CEO David Hult described the Herb Chambers deal as a strategic acquisition in a stable market, noting opportunities for improvement exist as in any transaction. COO Daniel Clara affirmed confidence in mid-single-digit Parts & Services growth, citing bay utilization opportunities. David Hult added that while warranty faces headwinds, customer-pay work should remain stable, and confirmed that warranty margins are typically higher than customer-pay margins.

Rajat Gupta asked about Asbury's gross profit performance relative to peers, questioning if regional factors like the D.C. market caused underperformance. He also inquired about the Herb Chambers acquisition terms, specifically regarding potential exit clauses given tariff uncertainties.

Answer

President & CEO David Hult attributed Q1 performance to a strategic focus on gross profit over volume amid tariff concerns and significant weather disruptions. COO Dan Clara confirmed weakness in the D.C. market due to weather and economic uncertainty. Regarding the acquisition, David Hult stated that Asbury has no breakup fee and no current intention of exiting the deal, citing the asset's strong performance and long-term strategic value.

Rajat Gupta from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for an analysis of the strong SG&A leverage in Q4. He also questioned why the projected Total Care Auto (TCA) deferral headwinds for 2025 and 2026 are now higher than previously guided, and inquired about the drivers of the strong F&I performance.

Answer

President and CEO David Hult and SVP & CFO Michael Welch attributed the SG&A improvement to cost reduction efforts and higher gross profit, noting performance could have been even better without headwinds from Stellantis. Welch explained the larger TCA deferral is a 'perfect storm' of legacy programs rolling off, rising sales volume, and the rollout into new Florida and Koons markets. SVP of Operations Dan Clara and CEO David Hult credited the F&I strength to focused training and a slight tailwind from higher vehicle costs and lower down payments.

Rajat Gupta asked why the financial impact from hurricanes and stop sales seemed larger for Asbury than for its peers and questioned the recovery outlook for the used car business, given recent volume declines and ongoing off-lease vehicle shortages.

Answer

SVP & CFO Michael Welch attributed the larger impact to Asbury's higher geographic concentration in affected southeastern states and its significant sales exposure to Toyota and Lexus. President & CEO David Hult and SVP of Operations Dan Clara stated the company is prioritizing used vehicle gross profit over volume until the supply of off-lease cars normalizes, focusing on acquiring inventory from trade-ins and service drives.

Rajat Gupta asked for clarification on the Q4 impairment charges, specifically what assets or brands they were tied to, and then inquired about Group 1 Automotive's SG&A strategy for 2026, focusing on U.S. productivity actions, the deployment of AI tools, and their potential impact on SG&A.

Answer

Daniel McHenry, CFO, explained that the Q4 impairments were part of an annual review, primarily related to the U.S. business, specifically the Audi brand and the Maryland/D.C. market, contrasting with Q3's U.K.-related impairments. Daryl Kenningham, CEO, detailed the company's extensive use of AI in customer interface, back office, sales operations, parts and service, and marketing. He highlighted productivity gains in aftersales due to lower technician turnover and the cost efficiency of virtual F&I being rolled out nationwide.

Rajat Gupta inquired about the specific assets or brands tied to the significant impairments recorded in Q4 2025, seeking clarification on the nature of these charges.

Answer

Daniel McHenry, CFO, clarified that the Q4 2025 impairments were primarily related to the U.S. business, specifically impacting the Audi brand and the Maryland/D.C. market, contrasting with Q3's U.K.-focused impairments. Daryl Kenningham, CEO, further detailed Group 1's extensive use of AI and productivity tools across the business, including after-sales (improving technician productivity and reducing turnover), virtual F&I (lower transaction costs), and sales/marketing (lead management, CRM, predictive analytics). Daniel McHenry added that U.S. SG&A as a percentage of gross profit is targeted to be in the mid-to-high 60s annually.

Rajat Gupta from JPMorgan Chase & Co. followed up on the U.K. reallocation of capacity, asking if Group 1 Automotive would consider partnering with Chinese automotive brands given their increasing market share. He also inquired about the sequential and year-over-year pullback in U.S. used vehicle gross profit per unit (GPU), seeking clarification on whether it was due to tariff tailwinds fading, higher pricing, or a more competitive landscape.

Answer

President and CEO Daryl Kenningham confirmed discussions with Chinese OEMs but highlighted that their current market focus is mass-market, not luxury, and the retail economics (rooftop throughput) are not yet comparable to Group 1's existing luxury portfolio. SVP Pete DeLongchamps explained that the U.S. used car market has stabilized but remains highly competitive for acquisitions, emphasizing Group 1's discipline in sourcing primarily from trades and maintaining a lean 30-31 day supply.

Rajat Gupta from JPMorgan Chase & Co. followed up on the U.K. reallocation of capacity, asking if Group 1 Automotive would consider partnering with Chinese automotive brands given their increasing market share. He also inquired about the sequential and year-over-year pullback in U.S. used vehicle gross profit per unit (GPU), seeking clarification on whether it was due to tariff tailwinds fading, higher pricing, or a more competitive landscape.

Answer

President and CEO Daryl Kenningham confirmed discussions with Chinese OEMs but highlighted that their current market focus is mass-market, not luxury, and the retail economics (rooftop throughput) are not yet comparable to Group 1's existing luxury portfolio. SVP Pete DeLongchamps explained that the U.S. used car market has stabilized but remains highly competitive for acquisitions, emphasizing Group 1's discipline in sourcing primarily from trades and maintaining a lean 30-31 day supply.

Rajat Gupta of JPMorgan Chase & Co inquired about the intra-quarter progression of new car GPUs, the rationale behind the increased UK cost-out target, and the sustainability of the strong parts and services growth in the UK.

Answer

CEO Daryl Kenningham confirmed that new car GPUs were consistently strong throughout the quarter without any monthly spikes. CFO Daniel McHenry attributed the higher UK cost-out target to greater-than-expected headcount reductions and store consolidations. Kenningham also expressed confidence in further UK aftersales growth, supported by an 8% increase in technicians and a focus on driving customer traffic.

Rajat Gupta inquired about the potential impact of pre-buy activity ahead of tariffs, asking for an estimate of the volume effect in late March and early April, and how business trends have sustained since. He also asked a follow-up question about a change in the same-store headcount reduction metric.

Answer

CEO Daryl Kenningham estimated a roughly 5% lift in traffic in the last 10 days of March but noted it was hard to distinguish from typical end-of-quarter activity. CFO Daniel McHenry added that key brands like Toyota and Lexus had very low inventory, suggesting those sales would have occurred regardless. Regarding headcount, McHenry clarified that the reduction metric excludes technicians, where headcount is growing, and the focus is on controlling non-technician costs.

Rajat Gupta inquired about the 2025 outlook for U.K. new and used car sales and gross profits, given the headwinds from EV mandates. He also asked for the expected SG&A run rate in the U.K. following the completion of restructuring actions.

Answer

CEO Daryl Kenningham expressed optimism that political discussions around the U.K.'s EV mandate will lead to a resolution, resulting in a healthier retail/fleet mix. CFO Daniel McHenry added that the company expects to reduce its U.K. adjusted SG&A as a percentage of gross profit by at least 300 basis points in the coming year from the current 83% level.

Rajat Gupta asked for quantification of one-time impacts on Q3 earnings, such as hurricanes and stop sales, and sought clarity on the expected SG&A reduction in the U.K. following the Inchcape integration.

Answer

CFO Daniel McHenry estimated the hurricane impact at $0.20-$0.30 of EPS and the stop sale impact at another $0.20-$0.30 of EPS, partially offset by $1.2 million in gross profit from related recall work. Regarding the U.K., CEO Daryl Kenningham and CFO Daniel McHenry explained that the guided 300 basis point SG&A reduction is a baseline, with additional upside expected from organic performance improvements as the integration completes.

Rajat Gupta asked for an early read on the impact of new margin and pricing actions on same-store sales, inquiring about the expected trade-off between dollar GPU and same-store volume. He also questioned the implications of increased third-party tier two penetration for CAF provisions and future in-house lending.

Answer

Enrique Mayor-Mora, EVP and CFO, stated it's too early for an early read as price changes just rolled out, but the goal is to change the negative sales trend. Jon Daniels, EVP of CarMax Auto Finance, clarified that changes in tier two/three penetration are normal market fluctuations and do not significantly impact CAF provisions, which are reserved for accordingly as they expand into the tier two spectrum.

Rajat Gupta asked for an early read on the margin versus same-store expectation, December trends, and the trade-off between dollar GPU and same-store volume. He also followed up on CAF's third-party tier two penetration, any tightening efforts, and potential changes to CAF provisions in Q4.

Answer

Enrique Mayor-Mora (EVP and CFO) stated it was too early to provide insight on the recent price changes, which just rolled out. He emphasized the goal is to change negative sales trends and drive earnings power through SG&A, COGS, EPP, and CAF growth. Jon Daniels (EVP, CarMax Auto Finance) clarified that shifts in tier 2/3 volume are normal and not indicative of meaningful tightening, expressing excitement about CAF's expansion into the tier 2 spectrum and its impact on income.

Rajat Gupta inquired about an update to CarMax Auto Finance (CAF) income guidance, previously expected to be up year-over-year, and the magnitude of the recent provision pickup. He also asked for more details on SG&A cost reduction areas, their potential impact on omnichannel support and market share recovery, and the offset from increased advertising.

Answer

Jon Daniels, EVP of CarMax Auto Finance, stated that CAF income is now expected to be flat to slightly down year-over-year, attributing the provision increase to the performance of 2022 and 2023 vintages. Enrique Mayor-Mora, EVP and CFO, detailed SG&A reductions through technology modernization, automation, contract renegotiation, and redundancy elimination, assuring these would not impact growth strategy. He noted some savings would be reinvested in areas like marketing.

Rajat Gupta inquired about an update to CarMax Auto Finance's (CAF) full-year income expectations, previously projected to be up year-over-year, and sought clarification on the significant increase in the loan loss provision. He also asked for details on the areas of SG&A cost reduction and whether these actions might hinder market share recovery, considering increased advertising spend.

Answer

Jon Daniels, EVP of CarMax Auto Finance, updated the CAF income outlook to flat to slightly down year-over-year, attributing the provision increase to continued struggles within the 2022 and 2023 vintages, which were impacted by high ASPs and inflation. He expressed confidence in the performance of 2024 and 2025 vintages. Enrique Mayor-Mora, EVP and CFO, detailed SG&A reductions from modernizing technology, automating processes, and renegotiating contracts, assuring these would not impact growth strategy. He clarified that while some savings would be reinvested in sales-driving initiatives like marketing, the $150 million reduction is net of ongoing expenses to achieve it, providing a material tailwind to earnings.

Rajat Gupta asked for an updated outlook on CarMax Auto Finance (CAF) income for the full year, noting a previous expectation for year-over-year growth, and sought clarification on the significant provision pickup in Q2. He also questioned the specific areas of SG&A reduction, potential impact on market share recovery, and the net effect of these savings considering increased advertising spend.

Answer

EVP of CarMax Auto Finance Jon Daniels updated the CAF income outlook to flat to slightly down year-over-year, attributing the provision increase to continued struggles in 2022 and 2023 vintages, despite their ongoing profitability. EVP and CFO Enrique Mayor-Mora detailed SG&A reductions from technology modernization, process automation, and contract renegotiations, emphasizing no impact on growth strategy. He noted some savings would be reinvested, like in marketing, but the overall reduction is net of ongoing expenses to achieve the savings.

Rajat Gupta of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for color on June sales trends following the tariff pre-buy, guidance on the Q2 CAF provision, and clarification on the mix of on- vs. off-balance sheet funding for future CAF growth.

Answer

President & CEO Bill Nash declined to comment on intra-quarter trends. EVP of Auto Finance Jon Daniels stated Q1 should be the high watermark for the provision, absent major growth changes. He, along with Nash and CFO Enrique Mayor-Mora, clarified that the off-balance sheet approach is an opportunistic tool for non-prime loans, not an 'all or nothing' strategy.

Rajat Gupta asked how CarMax is managing inventory acquisition amid tariff uncertainty and inquired about the drivers of the significant improvement in service gross profit. He later asked for clarification on the cadence of CAF's loan loss provision.

Answer

CEO William Nash expressed confidence in their inventory management, citing 30 years of experience and a combination of professional buyers and data analytics. CFO Enrique Mayor-Mora attributed the service profit improvement to efficiency from technology investments, cost coverage actions, and leverage from higher sales. EVP Jon Daniels clarified that the Q1 provision will be higher sequentially and year-over-year due to seasonality and recapturing profitable, higher-loss receivables, a trend that will continue as they expand CAF penetration.

Rajat Gupta sought clarification on the drivers of recent sales acceleration and questioned if the lower CarMax Auto Finance (CAF) reserve was due to a change in the macro outlook.

Answer

CEO William Nash attributed the sales momentum to internal execution improvements and moderating prices, rather than a fundamental shift in consumer mindset. Both Nash and SVP Jon Daniels clarified that the CAF provision normalized because the large Q2 adjustment proved adequate, not due to a change in their macro outlook.

Rajat Gupta sought clarification on whether quarter-to-date sales comps for September were positive and questioned the reason for the significant year-over-year drop in advertising spending.

Answer

President & CEO William Nash and SVP Jon Daniels confirmed that the current sales trend for Q3 is positive, though slightly softer than Q2 due to a calendar headwind that will normalize. EVP & CFO Enrique Mayor-Mora explained that the lower advertising spend was purely due to timing within the quarter and that spending for the first half of the year was in line with targets, with similar expectations for the second half.

Rajat Gupta questioned whether Carvana's Q4 unit guidance, implying more normal industry seasonality, indicates a change in seasonal behavior or reflects conservatism due to the macro backdrop. He also asked about other GPU, ancillary product penetration levels, and benchmarking against franchise dealers.

Answer

Ernie Garcia, Chief Executive Officer, stated that Q4 seasonality is largely 'more of the same' with typical variability from Q3 to Q4, and Carvana expects continued strong growth. He noted that other GPU is an area with opportunities for fundamental gains, and Carvana aims to outperform industry benchmarks by delivering simple, high-quality value-added products, with definite plans for further unlocking opportunities.

Rajat Gupta asked about Carvana's Q4 unit commentary, specifically if the implied seasonality indicates a change in the business's seasonal behavior or if it's a conservative stance due to the macro backdrop. He also inquired about the ancillary product penetration within other GPU, its year-over-year increase, and how Carvana benchmarks this against franchise dealers' performance.

Answer

Ernie Garcia, Chief Executive Officer, stated that the Q4 unit commentary largely reflects more of the same, with variability in Q3 to Q4 trends, and that Carvana continues to see strong growth. For other GPU, he emphasized it's an area with fundamental gains, and Carvana aims to outperform industry benchmarks while delivering simple, high-quality value-added products. He confirmed there's additional opportunity in this area.

Rajat Gupta of JPMorgan Chase & Co. requested elaboration on the company's holistic business view focused on units and EBITDA, asking about the key levers. He also asked for an update on the performance of early cohorts like Atlanta.

Answer

CEO Ernie Garcia explained that nearly every metric is a lever they are improving, from customer experience to data-driven decisions in inventory and pricing, all aimed at creating an intelligent, efficient system. On cohort performance, he stated that previous positive trends remain consistent across the board but did not offer new specific data.

Rajat Gupta of JPMorgan Chase & Co. requested elaboration on the company's holistic focus on units and EBITDA and the levers involved. He also asked for any incremental performance data on early cohorts like Atlanta.

Answer

CEO Ernie Garcia explained that nearly every aspect of the business is a lever they are working to improve, from customer experience to pricing intelligence, all aimed at building a more efficient and intelligent system. On cohort data, Garcia declined to provide new specifics but confirmed that the previously discussed trends of broad-based progress remain consistent.

Rajat Gupta asked how Carvana is better positioned to handle a potential recession compared to 2021-2022 and requested an update on the company's progress in adding new lending partners.

Answer

CEO Ernie Garcia contrasted the company's current position of high profitability and strong cash reserves with its prior high-growth, pre-profitability phase, stating Carvana is now far more resilient. On lending, he described the platform as stronger than ever, citing a robust securitization program, more recurring buyers for residual risk, the long-term Ally partnership, and the addition of another large pool buyer this quarter, all of which contribute to exceptional and improving finance GPU.

Rajat Gupta from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for elaboration on the sequential decline in Q4 retail GPU and inquired about the use of proceeds from the recent $900 million equity offering, including the potential for debt refinancing.

Answer

CFO Mark Jenkins explained that the sequential move in retail GPU from Q3 to Q4 was consistent with typical pre-COVID seasonality. Regarding the balance sheet, he stated there are no near-term refinancing expectations but noted that favorable market yields on their notes present a long-term opportunity. The overarching goal is to strengthen the balance sheet to focus entirely on the significant growth opportunity ahead.

Rajat Gupta sought to understand the per-unit economics of a marketplace sale versus a traditional one and its impact on the standalone ADESA business.

Answer

CEO Ernie Garcia explained that while accounting for revenue differs, the goal is to achieve the same fundamental per-vehicle dollar economics as a core retail unit. He described the marketplace structure as a way to reduce systemic costs for commercial sellers by leveraging Carvana's scaled retail and wholesale capabilities, benefiting the integrated ADESA platform.

Rajat Gupta from JPMorgan Chase & Co. sought insight into the Premier Truck Group's (PTG) market conditions, specifically asking about the visibility for freight rate bottoming out and the timing of a recovery. He also questioned the sustainability and drivers behind the strong U.S. parts and service business growth and explored potential U.S. expansion parallels for the successful Australian data center power solutions business.

Answer

Richard Shearing, COO of North American Operations, indicated freight rates had bottomed but not improved, citing excess capacity. He highlighted potential capacity tightening from new Department of Transportation executive orders on CDL holders and the positive impact of lower interest rates on the housing market. He attributed U.S. parts and service growth to an aging car park, technician videos, AI in scheduling, and effective labor rate increases, with warranty and collision work performing strongly. Roger Penske, Chair and CEO, added that body shop investments were yielding 10-12% return on sales. Randall Seymore, COO of International Operations, explained that the Australian data center business thrives due to exclusive MTU import rights, a model difficult to replicate in the fragmented U.S. market where MTU deals directly with major players.

Rajat Gupta of JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned the underlying performance of Penske Transportation Solutions (PTS) excluding gains on sale and asked how the additional $150 million in annual cash flow would influence capital allocation strategy.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Roger Penske confirmed PTS's strong operating performance overcame a $28 million year-over-year decline in gains on sale, with future results dependent on the freight cycle and used truck pricing. On capital allocation, EVP & CFO Shelley Hulgrave stated the extra cash provides more flexibility to opportunistically balance dividends, share buybacks, and M&A. Roger Penske added that the company expects to be more active with acquisitions in the second half of the year.

Rajat Gupta asked about the sustainability of the high used car GPU, the outlook for the Penske Transportation Solutions (PTS) business, and the potential for a Q2 pre-buy to pull demand from the second half of the year.

Answer

Chair and CEO Roger Penske attributed the strong used GPU to the Sytner Select realignment and a focus on newer cars. He noted the freight recession continues to impact the PTS rental business but that the unit outperformed Q1 last year. Regarding a pre-buy, he clarified any momentum would be on existing inventory, describing the second half outlook as 'cloudy' due to unknown future costs.

Rajat Gupta requested an outlook for the Penske Transportation Solutions (PTS) business for 2025 and asked when the used vehicle business is expected to return to unit growth.

Answer

Chair Roger Penske acknowledged headwinds for PTS from lower gains on sale and higher interest costs but expressed hope that the used truck market has bottomed. For used auto, Randall Seymore noted the U.K. market remains focused on gross profit over volume, while Rich Shearing stated that a stronger U.S. new car market should drive corresponding used unit growth. The lack of lease returns remains a near-term headwind.

Rajat Gupta from JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned the outlook for the used car business, asking if Q3's unit and GPU levels represent a new baseline following the CarShop consolidation. He also inquired about the company's capital allocation strategy and its willingness to increase leverage for more aggressive buybacks or M&A.

Answer

Chair and CEO Roger Penske explained the strategic shift from CarShop to Sytner Select in the U.K. has intentionally lowered unit volume to focus on higher-margin vehicles, establishing a new run rate of 3,500-4,000 units per quarter globally. EVP and CFO Shelley Hulgrave addressed capital allocation, describing the approach as 'opportunistic.' She noted that while the company has a strong balance sheet, the focus in 2024 has been on significant acquisitions ($2.1B in revenue) and robust dividend growth, rather than prioritizing share repurchases.

Rajat Gupta asked for more details on the US versus UK performance, specifically regarding GPUs, services growth, SG&A, and overall profit performance, and how Lithia's US operations are performing against the broader marketplace. He also followed up on the USD 2 billion M&A target, asking if it's a hard target for Q4 and if excess cash flow would be directed to buybacks if not met.

Answer

Bryan DeBoer, President and CEO, highlighted Lithia's strong US performance with an 11.8% revenue increase and almost 7% unit increase in used cars, significantly outperforming the market and used-only retailers. After-sales gross profit was up over 9%. He noted new car GPUs were down but still better than the national average. DeBoer stated that the UK's profitability was only down 2.4% year-over-year, not significantly impacting overall numbers. Regarding M&A, he confirmed the USD 2 billion target is a hard number, with return thresholds strictly maintained. He emphasized the company's confidence in its model and willingness to continue share buybacks if the market undervalues the business, noting 5.1% of shares were bought back in the quarter.

Rajat Gupta asked for a more detailed comparison of performance between the US and UK, specifically on GPUs, services growth, and overall profit. He also sought clarification on whether the $2 billion M&A target for the year is a firm commitment, and if not, whether excess cash flow would be directed towards buybacks.

Answer

Bryan DeBoer, President and CEO, highlighted that US used car revenue increased 11.8% with nearly 7% unit growth, significantly outperforming the market. He noted that after-sales gross profit in the US was up over 9%, driving much of the profitability, and that most of the $300 GPU decrease was in North America. DeBoer confirmed that the $2 billion M&A target is a hard number, with no flexibility on return thresholds, and emphasized the company's commitment to share buybacks, having repurchased 5.1% of shares in the quarter.

Rajat Gupta of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the company's same-store performance, which has lagged peers, and when an organic recovery might occur. He also inquired about the potential for a more aggressive pivot to share buybacks given the stock's valuation.

Answer

President & CEO Bryan DeBoer contended that performance has bridged the gap, citing #1 used car revenue growth and attributing historical differences to geographic footprint and brand mix. He confirmed a more aggressive buyback strategy, with SVP & CFO Tina Miller noting an allocation of up to 50% of free cash flow to repurchases due to the stock's valuation disconnect.

Rajat Gupta questioned the sequential increase in SG&A as a percentage of gross profit, asking if it was more than typical seasonality. He also sought clarification on the path to achieving the full-year SG&A guidance, given expectations for declining new car GPUs.

Answer

SVP and CFO Tina Miller attributed the SG&A performance primarily to seasonality, emphasizing the 150 basis point year-over-year improvement on a same-store basis. President and CEO Bryan DeBoer elaborated on the long-term plan to reach a mid-50% SG&A-to-gross ratio, driven by personnel efficiencies, leveraging corporate costs, future savings from the Pinewood DMS, and optimizing vendor pricing.

Rajat Gupta sought more detail on SG&A reduction opportunities, asking about the split between U.S. and U.K. efforts, and questioned how the company plans to accelerate its modest Aftersales growth.

Answer

COO Adam Chamberlain and CEO Bryan DeBoer detailed cost savings, including a realized $200 million, with another $50-$70 million expected from inventory management and nearly $50 million from personnel and tech costs. DeBoer addressed Aftersales, stating the 3.5% growth was below market and unacceptable. He attributed it to a 'mindset issue' rather than a technician shortage and expects to reach high single-digit growth within 3-4 quarters by driving operational focus.

Rajat Gupta sought clarity on the expected cadence of SG&A improvements and questioned the flexibility of the capital allocation strategy, particularly the 30-40% target for share buybacks versus M&A.

Answer

CEO Bryan DeBoer projected that SG&A as a percentage of gross profit would likely be in the 66.5% to 67.5% range for Q4 and Q1 due to seasonality. On capital allocation, he explained that with M&A pricing still high, there is a greater likelihood of share buybacks exceeding the 30-40% target in the short term, especially while the stock price remains depressed.

Rajat Gupta from JPMorgan Chase & Co asked about ACV's resource allocation philosophy, specifically balancing investment in growth against managing EBITDA targets. He also questioned the basis for the conservative market outlook for the rest of the year following a strong July.

Answer

CEO George Chamoun detailed their investment priorities, stating that product/tech and field inspectors are protected core investments, while the sales team is considered adequately sized. CFO Bill Zarella added that operational optimization is a continuous focus. Regarding the market outlook, they cited rising dealer trade retention rates, macro uncertainty around tariffs, and the potential for July's strength to be a pull-forward as reasons for a prudent second-half forecast.

Rajat Gupta of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about potential customer pushback on recent fee increases, especially amid rising wholesale prices, and asked about ACV's growth strategies in a potential tariff-impacted environment.

Answer

CEO George Chamoun stated that there has been "very little pushback" on fee increases, attributing this to the company's fair pricing and strong value proposition. He emphasized that macro factors like tariffs were already incorporated into their full-year guidance, which assumes a "flattish" wholesale market. Chamoun expressed confidence in ACV's ability to continue gaining market share through its differentiated product suite, including ClearCar and ACV MAX, which provide multiple growth levers.

Rajat Gupta requested an update on the adoption of the ACV Max and ClearCar combo, its importance to midterm targets, and the company's appetite to expand off-platform financing and transportation services in 2025.

Answer

CEO George Chamoun described incredible reception for ACV Max and ClearCar, citing a recent win with a 30-rooftop dealer group. He positioned these data services as inexpensive tools to build deep partnerships that drive high-value wholesale commitments rather than significant direct SaaS revenue. Regarding expansion, Chamoun noted that off-platform transport is growing via word-of-mouth with a minimal sales team, while ACV Capital is now ready to accelerate growth after platform investments and with a strong risk management team in place.

Rajat Gupta asked about the expected timeline for reaching the company's 40% incremental EBITDA margin target and sought clarification on the market share assumptions underlying the Q4 guidance.

Answer

CFO Bill Zerella reiterated the 40% normalized organic target for incremental EBITDA but clarified that they do not expect to reach it next year due to ongoing investments in the commercial platform, although margins will continue to improve. Both he and CEO George Chamoun confirmed that Q4 guidance reflects typical seasonality and a hurricane impact, not a deceleration in market share gains, which are expected to continue at a strong pace.

Rajat Gupta of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the macroeconomic landscape, questioning if tariff certainty was easing dealer anxiety and encouraging budget expansion. He also explored the potential impact of emerging agentic AI tools, like GPT-5, on CarGurus' marketplace model and the company's strategy to adapt.

Answer

CEO Jason Trevisan responded that despite some tariff clarity, significant dealer uncertainty persists due to high interest rates and inventory levels, which drives demand for CarGurus' ROI-focused marketing solutions. Regarding AI, he highlighted the company's own AI-powered 'CG Discover' tool and emphasized CarGurus' defensible moats, including deep dealer trust, proprietary data, and the emotional, nuanced nature of car shopping that generic AI struggles to replicate.

Rajat Gupta of JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned the expected composition of Marketplace revenue growth between dealer count and QARSD for the remainder of the year. He also asked if conversations with dealers indicate any potential changes in spending due to tariff-related uncertainty.

Answer

CEO Jason Trevisan explained that the mix between dealer count and QARSD will vary. He noted that Q1's exceptionally strong dealer additions moderated the QARSD growth rate formulaically, but the underlying drivers of revenue per dealer remain robust. Regarding tariffs, he described the environment as 'fluid,' which creates uncertainty but also drives a 'flight to quality' to platforms like CarGurus that offer data insights. He confirmed that CarGurus has not yet seen a material change in dealer spending patterns due to tariffs.

Rajat Gupta requested statistics or color on the trend of dealers consolidating their spend towards high-yield marketplaces and asked about the potential for deeper integration of CarGurus' platform with Dealer Management Systems (DMS).

Answer

Jason Trevisan, CEO, explained that he sees two levels of consolidation: ongoing dealer M&A, which benefits CarGurus as larger groups appreciate ROI, and dealers simplifying their marketing channels to focus on high-yield partners. He confirmed that deeper integration with dealer systems like CRMs, IMS, and DMS is a growing and necessary component of their strategy to become embedded in the daily dealer workflow.

Rajat Gupta questioned the key initiatives driving the international business, its growth stage, and the reason for a sequential OpEx increase, along with monetization opportunities from franchise dealers.

Answer

President and COO Sam Zales credited international growth to replicating the U.S. playbook of winning dealers and upselling products like Digital Deal. CFO Elisa Palazzo clarified the OpEx increase was due to a one-off Canadian sales tax item. Zales also confirmed strong growth in the franchise dealer segment and double-digit growth in the OEM advertising business as new car supply normalizes.

Rajat Gupta from JPMorgan Chase & Co. requested color on the second-half outlook, particularly for the non-dealer business and dealer metrics. He also asked a broader strategic question about how the rise of agentic AI could affect TrueCar's marketplace model and the company's plans to adapt.

Answer

President & CEO Jantoon Reigersman declined to provide a specific framework for the H2 outlook due to market uncertainty but stressed the company is structured to handle various revenue scenarios. CFO Oliver Foley elaborated on the dealer strategy, which prioritizes adding 'accretive' dealers and deepening partnerships over raw count. Regarding AI, Reigersman highlighted leveraging TrueCar's unique data, strengthening its trusted affinity partner network, and designing its platform to be central to the online car-buying journey.

Rajat Gupta inquired about the drivers behind the Q1 2025 expense increase, the company's confidence in achieving second-half revenue acceleration, and the specific progress on DMS integration for the TrueCar+ platform.

Answer

Executive Jantoon Reigersman and CFO Oliver Foley clarified that the primary investment is in dealer sales and service headcount, where productivity has been proven. They noted the DMS integration, starting with CDK, aims to fully automate dealer paperwork to reduce friction before a broader TC+ rollout, with significant monetization expected to follow in 2026.

Rajat Gupta questioned the expected EBITDA drop-through from the company's accelerating revenue growth and asked for a timeline on the ramp-up and potential revenue contribution from new AI, machine learning, and data monetization initiatives.

Answer

Executive Jantoon Reigersman explained that while maintaining positive adjusted EBITDA is a priority, the company is prepared to reinvest in marketing to fuel top-line growth, which may result in slightly lower near-term EBITDA margins. He pointed to the 2026 target of a 10% free cash flow margin as the long-term profitability goal. Regarding data monetization, he indicated that significant revenue contributions are expected over the course of the next year, not just the next quarter, positioning it as a key building block for the 2026 plan.

Rajat Gupta of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for quantification of the expected revenue acceleration in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, inquired about sequential ARPD growth, and questioned the impact of agentic AI on the company's marketplace model.

Answer

CFO Sonia Jain confirmed expectations for steady revenue acceleration from Q2 through Q4, driven by unit growth followed by repackaging benefits, and affirmed that ARPD should grow sequentially in Q3. CEO Alex Vetter addressed AI, highlighting that Cars.com's new AI-powered search is already generating twice the lead submission rates. He noted the company's strong direct traffic reduces its risk from AI-driven search changes, while its proprietary editorial content serves as a key advantage in training and being referenced by AI agents.

Rajat Gupta inquired about the drivers of the Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin beat, asking if proactive cost-saving measures were implemented in response to tariff news. He also sought to reconcile the guidance for Q2 revenue growth with commentary about dealers and OEMs potentially reducing media spend.

Answer

CFO Sonia Jain attributed the EBITDA outperformance to sustained cost discipline and lower-than-anticipated integration costs for DealerClub, not a reaction to tariffs. She noted a targeted headcount reduction in late Q1 would benefit future quarters. CEO Alex Vetter clarified that while core marketplace subscriptions remain strong, the uncertainty lies in discretionary media spend, where clients are seeking more flexibility and shifting away from longer-term commitments.

Rajat Gupta requested more granular detail on the drivers for the second-half revenue growth ramp, specifically the mix between dealer count and ARPD and progress on repackaging initiatives. He also asked if there was room for a more aggressive share buyback program given the company's low leverage and the recent stock performance.

Answer

CFO Sonia Jain and CEO Alex Vetter detailed that second-half growth will be driven by both dealer count and ARPD. Key drivers include organizational changes, strong marketplace traffic, enhanced packaging for marketplace and website tiers, and the cross-sell of solutions like AccuTrade and the Inventory Intelligence Platform. Regarding buybacks, Sonia Jain confirmed that while the company provided a target, it will be opportunistic with repurchases, especially given the current stock valuation.

Rajat Gupta from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the implied deceleration in the second-half guidance, whether double-digit share gains can continue, the drivers of Q2 market share outperformance, and OpenLane's pricing strategy versus physical auctions.

Answer

CFO Brad Herring explained the second-half guidance reflects consensus expectations for a market slowdown and continued strategic investments in the buyer network. CEO Peter Kelly added that while the goal is to consistently outpace the industry, he wouldn't commit to a specific rate of share gain every quarter. He attributed recent success to growing brand recognition for OpenLane's value proposition rather than a broad industry inflection. Regarding pricing, Kelly positioned OpenLane as a high-value service at a reasonable, though not low-price, cost, which remains below physical auction fees.

Rajat Gupta of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the percentage of Canadian vehicles exported to the U.S. and the potential impact from tariffs. He also asked for an explanation of the sharp drop in AFC's loan loss provisions.

Answer

CEO Peter Kelly explained that typically 10-20% of Canadian volume is exported to the U.S., but a significant majority are U.S.-built vehicles and thus not subject to the new tariffs. He noted the launch of a 'tariff filter' to help dealers navigate this. Regarding AFC, Mr. Kelly attributed the low 1.5% provision rate to steadily improving risk management and a favorable used vehicle price environment, while reiterating the company's long-term target range of 1.5% to 2%.

Rajat Gupta of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the percentage of Canadian vehicles exported to the U.S. and the potential impact from tariffs. He also asked for an explanation for the sharp drop in AFC's loan loss provisions.

Answer

CEO Peter Kelly explained that typically 10-20% of Canadian volume is exported to the U.S., but the significant majority of those vehicles are U.S.-built and therefore not subject to the new tariffs. Regarding AFC, he attributed the low 1.5% provision rate to steadily improving risk management and a favorable used vehicle price environment, while confirming the long-term target remains in the 1.5% to 2% range.

Rajat Gupta asked for more granular detail on OPENLANE's market share gains in U.S. dealer-to-dealer volumes and questioned the company's pricing strategy relative to digital and physical auction competitors.

Answer

CEO Peter Kelly stated that dealer volumes saw a significant positive swing versus the first half of the year, with momentum building through Q3. He confirmed OPENLANE is gaining share against physical auctions but did not provide specific U.S. figures. On pricing, Kelly emphasized the company's value proposition of speed and efficiency, noting that while they have pricing headroom, the focus is on growth. He disclosed a price increase in Canada in September and a modest one in the U.S. during Q4, the benefits of which will be realized in future quarters.

Rajat Gupta asked for more granular detail on OPENLANE's market share gains in U.S. dealer-to-dealer volumes versus physical auctions and questioned the company's current pricing strategy relative to competitors.

Answer

CEO Peter Kelly confirmed that dealer volumes improved significantly versus the first half of the year and that the company believes it is gaining share against physical auctions. He attributed momentum to go-to-market investments and increased marketplace participation. Regarding pricing, Kelly stated that OPENLANE is competitively positioned, often at or below alternatives, providing headroom for recent modest price increases in Canada and the U.S. that will benefit future quarters.

Rajat Gupta of JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned if EchoPark's strong Q2 GPU came at the expense of volume, representing a strategic shift. He also asked for more detail on the F&I improvements and the monthly trend for new vehicle GPUs during the quarter.

Answer

President Jeff Dyke stated that EchoPark is strategically managing inventory to maximize total gross profit, not just volume, and expects this cautious approach to continue. EchoPark COO Tim Keane confirmed they navigated an unstable market to protect gross margins. On F&I, Dyke clarified the gains were driven by renegotiating costs with product providers (e.g., warranty, GAP) through a formal RFP process, not from lending changes. Regarding new vehicle GPUs, both Dyke and CEO David Smith confirmed that demand and margins were highest early in the quarter due to tariff pull-forward.

Rajat Gupta from JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned why the full-year guidance for EchoPark seemed conservative given its very strong Q1 performance. He also asked about SG&A as a percentage of gross profit, noting some deleveraging, and inquired about any underlying structural changes to pay plans.

Answer

President Jeff Dyke explained the conservative EchoPark forecast is due to uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs, but noted they could get more aggressive if the situation resolves favorably. On SG&A, CFO Heath Byrd clarified there were no material changes to pay plans and that higher Q1 costs were driven by normal seasonal items like payroll taxes. VP of Investor Relations Danny Wieland reaffirmed the full-year consolidated SG&A target in the low 70s range.

Rajat Gupta asked for clarification on EchoPark's Q4 sales volume, which seemed soft compared to peers, and questioned if the mid-single-digit growth guidance for 2025 parts and services was conservative given recent technician hiring.

Answer

President Jeff Dyke explained that EchoPark's Q4 same-store volume grew 4-5%, but focus was diverted to clearing aged inventory, which impacted overall performance. Regarding fixed operations, Dyke acknowledged potential upside to the guidance, especially in the first half of 2025. CFO Heath Byrd added that the full $100 million annualized gross profit benefit from new technicians will materialize gradually as they reach full productivity.

Rajat Gupta inquired about the seemingly low financial impact from the BMW stop sale, the specific new and used unit impact from the CDK outage, the expected Q4 service business from BMW, and the outlook for SG&A-to-gross.

Answer

President Jeff Dyke explained the BMW impact was mitigated by strong execution, with about 500-550 units affected. CFO Heath R. Byrd provided specific unit and GPU impacts from the CDK outage. Jeff Dyke confirmed a strong Q4 is expected for BMW service. Heath Byrd reiterated SG&A guidance in the low 70s for franchise and noted improved guidance for EchoPark in the high 70s.

Rajat Gupta of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the extent of market share gains in U.S. dealer-to-dealer (D2D) volumes and the key assumptions for dealer and commercial volumes embedded in the 2025 guidance.

Answer

CEO Peter Kelly highlighted the 15% D2D volume growth in Q4, driven by strategic investments in sales and marketing. He stated that while OPENLANE's U.S. market share is still small, its strong offering positions it for long-term growth. He confirmed the 2025 guidance accounts for the known headwind of lower off-lease commercial volumes but anticipates continued strong performance, with an acceleration in 2026.