Rajesh Kumar

Rajesh Kumar of HSBC asked if Pfizer could absorb potential tariff impacts in future years, how balance sheet capacity would be deployed across therapeutic areas, and if the company would exceed its new leverage target for a deal.

Answer

EVP & CFO Dave Denton stated they are not commenting on future year impacts yet and confirmed they would exceed the 2.7x leverage target for the right deal. EVP and Chief Strategy & Innovation Officer Andrew Baum added that while active in oncology, Pfizer has significant strength in internal medicine and I&I and will pursue value-driven opportunities in those areas.

Rajesh Kumar of HSBC asked if Pfizer is prepared to absorb potential tariff impacts in 2026 and whether the company would exceed its new leverage target for a major oncology deal versus deploying capital in other areas like obesity.

Answer

CFO Dave Denton stated they are not commenting on 2026 impacts yet and clarified the new 2.7x leverage target reflects current reality, but they would exceed it for the right deal. EVP and Chief Strategy & Innovation Officer Andrew Baum added that while active in oncology, Pfizer has a strong heritage in other areas and will pursue value-driven opportunities where they have a right to win.

Rajesh Kumar asked for the numerical impact of the IRA on Pfizer's business for the upcoming year and what catalysts are needed for the company to increase its long-term guidance for the Seagen assets.

Answer

CFO David Denton stated that the net financial impact of the IRA for 2025 would be provided along with full-year guidance. EVP and Chief Oncology Officer Chris Boshoff explained that releasing more positive clinical data from the Seagen pipeline at medical conferences next year will be key to building external confidence in the assets' long-term value.

Rajesh Kumar asked for insights into the margin cadence for 2026, particularly the first half versus second half, considering Medicare Part D, generic entries, operational gearing, and the impact of Novartis's actions to offset these pressures.

Answer

CFO Harry Kirsch explained that 2026 will be a year of two halves, with the first half depressed by generic impacts and a high prior-year base, and a stronger second half. He noted that underlying quarterly dynamics are not usually affected by Medicare Part D unless there are significant true-ups. He highlighted that Q1 2026 will have a high base due to a positive Q1 2025 true-up, while Q3 2026 will have a relatively low base due to the negative Q3 2025 true-up, with overall performance driven by launch uptake and generic erosion.

Rajesh Kumar sought to understand the margin cadence for 2026, particularly the first half versus second half, considering generic entries, Medicare Part D, and the impact of operational gearing and self-help actions.

Answer

Vasant Narasimhan, CEO of Novartis, and Harry Kirsch, CFO of Novartis, explained that 2026 would be a year of two halves, with the first half depressed by generic impacts and a high prior-year base. Harry Kirsch clarified that underlying quarterly dynamics are not typically affected by Medicare-related growth-to-net levels, except for significant true-ups. He noted that Q1 2026 would have a high base from Q1 2025's positive true-ups, and Q3 2026 a relatively low base from Q3 2025's negative true-ups, with overall dynamics driven by launch uptake and generic erosion.

Rajesh Kumar from HSBC asked about Novartis's capital allocation strategy, questioning the rationale for prioritizing a share buyback over M&A, especially given potentially attractive asset valuations.

Answer

CFO Harry Kirsch clarified that Novartis is not prioritizing share buybacks over M&A. He stressed that the company has significant balance sheet flexibility and is actively seeking value-creating bolt-on acquisitions. The new buyback program does not constrain their ability to execute deals; the primary challenge is finding the right assets.

Rajesh Kumar from HSBC asked about Novartis's capital allocation discipline in competitive M&A situations and what tools the company uses if competitors are not behaving similarly.

Answer

CEO Vasant Narasimhan emphasized a disciplined, long-game approach, stating the company avoids overstretching and will walk away from deals if outbid beyond its valuation. He noted a shift towards smaller, sub-billion dollar deals where Novartis has a differentiated scientific view. If a deal doesn't meet their financial criteria, the capital is instead returned to shareholders via buybacks, like the ongoing $15 billion program.

Rajesh Kumar requested an update on Zepbound's access and coverage, asking how it compares to a year ago and what the next steps are, particularly in light of actions against compounding pharmacies.

Answer

Patrik Jonsson, President of Cardiometabolic Health, reported significant progress on employer opt-ins, moving from approximately 50% at the start of 2024 to the mid-to-high 50s by year-end. He also noted Medicaid coverage expanded from 11 to 14 states and expects progress in Medicare Part D for OSA in the second half of the year. Regarding compounding, he stated the market size is hard to assess but believes Lilly's self-pay price point is competitive.

Rajesh Kumar requested updates on development and filing timelines for the oral PCSK9 inhibitor and SERENA-6, and asked for the broader strategic view on the total potential for Datroway across all its indications.

Answer

EVP, BioPharma R&D, Sharon Barr said the pivotal PCSK9 study will start by year-end, with an outcomes trial running in parallel to speed uptake. EVP, Oncology R&D, Susan Galbraith noted SERENA-6 regulatory discussions are ongoing. EVP, Oncology, David Fredrickson positioned Datroway as a broad platform opportunity beyond lung cancer, with combinations and biomarker-driven strategies, highlighting encouraging early uptake in breast cancer as proof of concept.

Rajesh Kumar inquired about future clinical trial design, asking whether next-generation products would be tested against a placebo or an active comparator like semaglutide in cardiovascular outcome trials.

Answer

Martin Lange, Head of R&D, explained the regulatory complexity. Once a 'gold standard' of care is established, new trials must compare against it. Showing superiority to semaglutide would be a 'taller order' requiring larger or redesigned trials. He noted that CagriSema's trial uses a placebo control because a gold standard was not established at the time of its initiation.

Rajesh Kumar from HSBC Bank Plc asked if current provision levels are normalized or still elevated, whether customers are shifting to own-brands to combat inflation, and how a switch from temporary to permanent labor would impact the overall cost base.

Answer

CEO Frank Andre van Zanten confirmed that customers are indeed requesting own-brand alternatives in response to inflation, creating an opportunity for Bunzl. CFO Richard Howes stated that provision levels remain high but should decline over time. He also explained that moving from temporary to permanent staff could ultimately lower costs due to increased efficiency and training, despite the flexibility of temps.

Rajesh Kumar from HSBC asked about discussions with suppliers regarding cost prices and rebate accruals amid the core business decline. He also requested color on any pattern changes in the core business across geographies and sectors from Q2 to Q3.

Answer

CEO & Executive Director Frank van Zanten explained that most supplier rebate schemes are based on a fixed percentage, so lower volumes naturally result in lower rebates, which is already factored into results. He reiterated that all sectors saw improvement in Q3, particularly foodservice and retail, due to reopenings. However, he cautioned that the situation remains uncertain, citing new lockdowns in Europe as a risk.