Rajiv Chaudhri

Rajiv Chaudhri questioned JinkoSolar's Q4 module shipment guidance, seeking a narrower range, and asked for the industry's global module shipments for 2025. He also inquired about CapEx targets for 2025 and 2026, the expectation for operating cash flow in 2026, the cost structure of premium products, and the outlook for JinkoSolar's market share and module shipments in 2026.

Answer

CFO Charlie Cao stated that Q4 module shipments would likely be closer to the lower end of the guidance range. He estimated global industry module production for 2025 at roughly 700 GW. CapEx targets were approximately RMB 5 billion for both 2025 and 2026, with 2026 CapEx focused on upgrading existing capacity to next-generation TOPCon technology. He confirmed expectations for substantially higher operating cash flow in 2026, driven by ESS growth and higher-margin TOPCon modules. He noted that premium products initially have a very small incremental cost increase, with R&D efforts to further reduce it. For market share, he expressed confidence in continued penetration due to industry consolidation but did not expect significant module shipment increases in 2026 due to China's anti-evolution policies.

Rajiv Chaudhri questioned JinkoSolar's market share trajectory given its 2025 shipment guidance. He asked for a geographic breakdown of global market growth, whether a price premium for TOPCon products persists, and the expected mix between distributed generation (DG) and utility-scale shipments.

Answer

CEO Xiande Li explained the current strategy prioritizes profitability and cash flow over market share gains in an imbalanced market. CFO Charlie Cao detailed the global demand outlook (~700 GW), with China growing 10-15%. He confirmed customers still pay a premium for higher-power products. He also noted a strategic shift to lower the DG shipment mix from nearly 47% in 2024 to a range of 30-35% in 2025.

Rajiv Chaudhri of Sunsara Capital questioned why Jinko's 2025 market share guidance appears flat to down, and asked for the Q4 2024 depreciation figure, the 2025 depreciation forecast, and the free cash flow expectation for 2025.

Answer

CFO Charlie Cao responded that the company is focused on navigating the industry cycle rather than a fixed market share target, with a long-term goal of 20-25%. CFO Pan Li provided the Q4 depreciation number as RMB 1.6-1.7 billion but noted the 2025 figure is pending. Mr. Cao projected positive operating cash flow for 2025, but with RMB 4 billion in CapEx, free cash flow may be slightly negative, though this could improve with market conditions.

Rajiv Chaudhri asked about the expected Q4 average selling price (ASP) trend given lower U.S. shipments, Q3 EBITDA and depreciation figures, the status of the energy storage business, shipping cost trends, and the outlook for Q4 G&A expenses.

Answer

Haiyun Cao, CFO of JinkoSolar Co., Ltd., indicated that blended ASPs would be slightly lower in Q4 due to a regional mix shift, though prices are stabilizing. He stated quarterly depreciation is around $70 million. Cao also projected that both logistics costs and overall operating expenses would be lower in Q4 versus Q3. Gener Miao, CMO, added that it was too early to disclose specific revenue figures for the growing storage business.

Rajiv Chaudhri asked for several specific financial metrics, including Q2 depreciation, capital spending, and full-year targets. He also questioned the drivers behind the sharp ASP decline, non-polysilicon cost reductions, the outlook for gross margins, and the estimated size of the 2024 N-type market and Jinko's share within it.

Answer

Mengmeng Li (CFO) and Haiyun 'Charlie' Cao (CFO) responded. Li stated H1 CapEx was RMB 4 billion with a full-year target of RMB 9 billion. Cao added that 2025 CapEx will be 'definitely lower.' On ASPs, Cao noted that while prices have declined, they are stabilizing at their lowest levels. He attributed cost reductions to design optimization and improved purchasing. For gross margin, Cao expressed confidence it would 'stabilize' but was not confident it would increase in Q3. He estimated the TOPCon market penetration at 70-75% for 2024, with Jinko's own mix being about 90% N-type.

Rajiv Chaudhri of Sunsara Capital questioned the impact of reduced utilization on fully loaded costs, the relationship between full-year production and sales volumes, specific examples of competitor shutdowns, and Daqo's market share position for 2024.

Answer

CFO Ming Yang clarified that because over 80% of production costs are variable, the lower utilization rate has a minimal impact on fully loaded costs. He stated it is difficult to forecast if full-year sales will exceed production, as it depends heavily on Q4 performance. Mr. Yang cited the case of competitor Renyang being consolidated by Tongwei as an example of market consolidation. He concluded that Daqo is maintaining its market share at approximately 15% of the industry's current production.