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Raul Cavendish

Lead Equity Research Analyst at XP

Raul Cavendish is a Lead Equity Research Analyst at XP Investimentos, specializing in the coverage of major Brazilian utilities, including prominent companies such as Neoenergia and Sabesp. He has established a reputation for thorough sector analysis and has issued high-conviction recommendations, such as a 'buy' rating and a target price of R$130.00 for Sabesp as of October 2025, indicating his impactful market calls. Raul began his career as an Equity Research Analyst at Verde Asset Management from 2023 to 2024 before joining XP, where he now leads sector research and publishes coverage reports for institutional clients. His professional credentials highlight his expertise in Brazilian equities research, with email communications confirming his role, though specific securities licenses are not publicly listed.

Raul Cavendish's questions to ELP leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Raul Cavendish from XP asked about Copel's GenCo and G&T portfolio strategy, specifically the trading company's hedge strategy for the current year, the trade costing for the upcoming year, and the approach to maximizing the Gen portfolio's value. He also inquired about the strategic sense of investing in batteries and the potential impact of recent climate-related factors on 2026 energy prices.

Answer

Rodolfo from the trading team explained the successful Q3 2025 hedge strategy, leveraging low-price windows and swaps, and noted the current high and liquid market for future electricity prices. CEO Daniel Slaviero and Brittel highlighted the benefits of hydro modulation and the unique characteristics of Copel's portfolio, emphasizing a disciplined approach to selling energy blocks while maintaining flexibility for better price capture. Slaviero also mentioned evaluating batteries for competitiveness and focusing on existing hydro expertise. Rodolfo added that while one-off weather events might cause temporary price dips, the mid-to-long term need for thermal dispatch suggests higher prices.

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Question · Q3 2025

Raul Cavendish asked about Copel's GenCo and GNT portfolio strategy, specifically the trading company's hedge strategy for the year, including the process, cost for next year, and how it maximizes the Gen portfolio's value. He also inquired about the strategic sense of opportunities in batteries and the impact of climate/rainfall on 2026 energy prices.

Answer

Rodolfo from the trading team explained that energy was purchased during low-price windows in mid-2024, utilizing swaps for Q3 needs, and noted the current high but liquid market. Brittel highlighted the benefits of hydro modulation and the appreciation of prices in the south region. CEO Daniel Slaviero added that the strategy involves selling small blocks for average prices while keeping some energy uncontracted to capture better spot prices, supported by Copel's grid-linked EBITDA. Regarding batteries, the company is assessing competitiveness, favoring reversible hydroelectric plants. For 2026 prices, management believes that despite one-off climate impacts, the abundant need for thermal dispatch will keep mid-to-long term prices higher.

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Raul Cavendish's questions to EBR leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Raul Cavendish inquired about the value levers for the Tijuá acquisition beyond capacity reserve, the expected level and possibility of additional dividend payouts before year-end, and AXIA Energia's strategic position on battery storage implementation and market opportunities.

Answer

Elio Wolff, VP of Strategy and Business Development at AXIA Energia, described the Tijuá acquisition as advantageous due to its quota-based nature, debt-free status, and expansion potential. He noted that AXIA Energia has a substantial battery pipeline and seeks market solutions beyond auctions to capture intraday value. Eduardo Haiama, CFO of AXIA Energia, stated that any additional dividend payouts before year-end would depend on the capital allocation methodology and economic sense for shareholders.

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Question · Q3 2025

Raul Cavendish asked about other value levers for the Tijuá acquisition beyond capacity reserve, including recapitalization. He also inquired about the expected dividend level until year-end and the possibility of an additional payout if the BRL 1.087 is approved. Finally, he sought clarification on AXIA Energia's strategic position on storage, considering auctions versus other alternatives and its focus on transmission.

Answer

Elio Wolff, VP of Strategy and Business Development, explained Tijuá's value from being a debt-free quota-based plant, ending arbitration, and its expansion potential with three additional machines, noting it cannot participate in the March auction due to regulations. For batteries, he mentioned a substantial pipeline, seeing them as important for the system, with the short-term opportunity being the battery auction, but also desiring an effective market solution for intraday operations. Eduardo Haiama, CFO, stated that any additional dividend payout before year-end would depend on the capital allocation methodology, considering economic sense for shareholders and potential dividend taxation.

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