Ricardo Alves

Ricardo Alves inquired about the long-term strategy for OXXO's gross margin performance, particularly concerning financial services like cash-in/cash-out and remittances, and asked for an update on shareholder distribution plans for 2026, specifically regarding potential excess cash beyond the committed amounts.

Answer

CEO José Antonio Fernández Garza-Lagüera highlighted the growth in financial services traffic, including Banorte's integration and remittance opportunities, emphasizing Spin's critical role in combining digital and physical networks. CFO Martín Arias Yániz clarified the committed shareholder distributions for 2026 (extraordinary dividend, buybacks, ordinary dividend) and stated that any additional excess cash beyond the 2x net debt to EBITDA target would be considered for further buybacks or extraordinary dividends later in the year.

Ricardo Alves inquired about OXXO's long-term gross margin performance, particularly concerning financial services, and the initiatives planned for 2026 to maintain relevance in cash in/cash out and remittances. He also asked for more detail on the 2026 shareholder distribution, potential excess cash beyond MXN 3 billion, and any changes to M&A ticket size or leverage targets.

Answer

CEO José Antonio Fernández Garza-Lagüera highlighted commercial income as a growing source and noted that financial services, including Banorte's corresponsalía and remittances, are driving traffic growth. He emphasized Spin's critical role in combining digital and physical networks for future services. CFO Martín Arias Yániz clarified that planned distributions for 2026 total $2.4-$2.5 billion, and while he expects less excess cash than suggested, FEMSA retains flexibility for additional buybacks or extraordinary dividends if performance exceeds expectations, given the proximity to the 2x net debt to EBITDA target.

Ricardo Alves asked about the drivers for continued gross margin expansion in OXXO Mexico, comparing it to global convenience store businesses, and what would be the next leg-up. He also sought insights into the strategic focus for the Proximity division across different regions (Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, U.S., Europe) for the next two to three years under the new leadership.

Answer

José Antonio Fernández Garza-Laguera, CEO of Fomento Económico Mexicano, explained that Mexico's unique CPG profitability and OXXO's commercial income and supplier partnerships drive margin potential. He noted that expanding into grocery categories might involve giving back some margin to consumers. Martin Arias, CFO, added that high-margin financial services and OXXO's distinct value proposition contribute. For Proximity's focus, Juan Fonseca, Head of Investor Relations, and José Antonio highlighted Mexico's continued store growth, Bara's improving performance, OXXO Brazil's accelerating growth, and organic expansion opportunities for Valora in Europe.

Ricardo Alves from Morgan Stanley asked about the potential for further expansion of OXXO Mexico's gross margin, excluding U.S. proximity, and the key drivers for this growth compared to global convenience store businesses. He also inquired about the new CEO's strategic focus for Proximity's various regions over the next two to three years.

Answer

José Antonio Fernández Garza-Laguera, CEO of Fomento Económico Mexicano, explained that Mexico's unique market dynamics, strong CPG partnerships, and commercial income potential allow for continued gross margin growth, even while reinvesting some in affordability. Martin Arias, CFO, added that financial services income and OXXO's distinct value proposition against traditional trade contribute to higher margins, emphasizing a focus on maximizing value per category rather than a target gross margin. For Proximity's focus, José Antonio highlighted Mexico (store growth, breakfast/grocery share), Bara (expansion, private label), Brazil (accelerating growth), Colombia, and Europe (organic growth).

Ricardo Alves from Morgan Stanley questioned the significant net income miss, focusing on higher taxes and lower equity income. He also asked which specific initiatives would most impact OXXO Mexico's traffic recovery in the second half.

Answer

CFO Martín Yániz attributed the net income decline primarily to a 10 billion peso swing from foreign exchange losses on USD cash balances. He explained the higher effective tax rate was due to non-deductible expenses and Spin's losses. Director of IR Juan Fonseca noted that July same-store sales were already positive and highlighted initiatives around product assortment and new supplier negotiations as key drivers for a second-half rebound.

Ricardo Alves asked about the drivers behind the net income miss, specifically higher taxes and lower equity income, and requested more concrete evidence for an expected traffic rebound at OXXO Mexico in the second half.

Answer

CFO Martín Yániz attributed the net income decline primarily to a significant FX loss on USD cash balances and explained the higher effective tax rate was due to non-deductible expenses. Director of IR Juan Fonseca provided evidence for optimism by noting that July same-store sales were positive in the low single digits and that initiatives to adjust product mix are underway.

Ricardo Alves asked about the degree of sales cannibalization from OXXO's rapid store expansion in Mexico, the strategy for inorganic versus organic growth in the U.S., and the potential to accelerate store openings in Brazil.

Answer

Jose Antonio Fernández, CEO of the Proximity and Health Division, quantified the cannibalization effect at a tolerable 20-30 basis points of same-store sales, given the high ROIC of new stores. For the U.S., he and Juan Fonseca emphasized perfecting the value proposition organically before considering major M&A. Regarding Brazil, Fernández expressed strong satisfaction with recent momentum and confirmed FEMSA would continue to invest heavily to maintain a growth rate of 20-25% of the store base.

Ricardo Alves inquired about the execution strategy for the 2025 share buyback program and questioned the long-term balance between OXXO's aggressive store expansion and its impact on same-store sales and marginal returns.

Answer

CFO Martin Arias Yaniz explained that the share repurchase plan will likely involve a mix of open-market purchases on the Mexican Bolsa and Accelerated Share Repurchases (ASRs) in the U.S., similar to the previous year. Regarding OXXO's expansion, an executive from the Proximity division, along with executive Juan Fonseca, affirmed confidence in the current pace, citing meticulous monitoring of new store productivity, the success of new formats, and tightened location approval standards that have improved the quality of recent store cohorts.

Ricardo Alves of Morgan Stanley asked about the drivers behind OXXO's average ticket growth being only in line with inflation, a change from prior quarters. He also questioned the capital return strategy, noting its accelerated pace, and asked about future plans.

Answer

CFO Martin Arias Yaniz affirmed that the capital return plan is constantly re-evaluated and that accelerating the remaining portion of the extraordinary returns depends on market conditions, with flexibility between buybacks and dividends. Executive Juan Fonseca addressed same-store sales, attributing the Q2 slowdown to tough comparisons and one-offs, but noted easier comps in H2 could be balanced by potential post-election consumer softness. Martin Arias Yaniz added that the strategic focus is on driving overall traffic and revenue, not just ticket growth relative to inflation.

Ricardo Alves questioned Volaris' path to deleveraging, noting the increase in the net debt to EBITDA ratio from 2.6 times in Q4 2024 to 3.1 times in Q4 2025, especially given higher projected CapEx and only marginal margin improvement.

Answer

CFO Jaime Pous indicated that Volaris expects sequential improvement in its leverage ratio, projecting a reduction from 3.1 times at the start of 2026 to approximately 2.6 times by year-end, primarily driven by improvements from the reduction of Aircraft on Ground (AOGs).

Ricardo Alves inquired about Coca-Cola FEMSA's strategic views and main ambitions for 2026 and the next two years, focusing on big opportunities. He also requested an update on shareholder remuneration and dividend strategy, given the company's below 1x EBITDA leverage.

Answer

CEO Ian Craig outlined strategic priorities including growing the core business, leveraging Juntos+ AI capabilities, and fostering a customer-centric culture, emphasizing prudence due to the Mexico tax increase. CFO Gerardo Cruz Celaya added that digital capabilities and AI are crucial for revenue growth management. He stated the company is holding on providing a dividend update, awaiting clarity on cash flow behavior in H1 2026 due to the IEPS challenge.

Ricardo Alves inquired about Coca-Cola FEMSA's main strategic ambitions for 2026 and the next two years, beyond Mexico, given past investments and cost adjustments. He also asked for an update on shareholder remuneration, considering the company's low leverage.

Answer

CEO Ian Craig outlined strategic priorities: growing the core business (Coke Zero, flavors, NCBs), leveraging Juntos+ AI capabilities, and fostering a customer-centric culture. CFO Gerardo Cruz Celaya stated that an update on the dividend strategy is being held to assess 2026 cash flow behavior due to the IEPS tax impact in Mexico.

Ricardo Alves inquired about the significant improvement in Mexico and Central America's adjusted operating margin in Q3 2025, seeking clarification on whether it was driven by operational leverage from improved volumes or internal cost-cutting initiatives. He also asked for a strategic overview of Coca-Cola FEMSA's performance in Central America, Argentina, and Colombia, focusing on successful strategies and areas for further opportunity.

Answer

CFO Gerardo Cruz explained that while gross profit faced pressure from mix, the EBIT margin turnaround was primarily due to savings initiatives across raw materials, marketing, restructuring, and supply chain, alongside a favorable operating foreign exchange gain from a strong peso. CEO Ian Craig added that the main driver was bringing productivity back in line and adjusting the operational structure since May. For Argentina, the strategy of maintaining household penetration by not fully passing inflation during the recession proved effective. In Colombia, the company reviewed its OBPPC (Occasion, Brand, Price, Pack, Channel) strategy to navigate a significant tax increase, leading to share gains. Guatemala experienced short-term adjustments due to perceived remittance risks, prompting structural changes to prepare for resumed growth.

Ricardo Alves with Morgan Stanley inquired about the drivers behind the significant sequential improvement in Mexico and Central America's adjusted operating margins, specifically whether it was due to operational leverage from improved volumes or internal cost-cutting initiatives. He also asked for a strategic overview of Coca-Cola FEMSA's performance in Central America, Argentina, and Colombia over the past couple of years, highlighting what strategies worked and what opportunities remain.

Answer

CFO Gerardo Cruz explained that while gross profit faced mix-related pressures, the main reason for the profitability turnaround was savings initiatives across the P&L, including raw materials, marketing optimization, team restructuring, and supply chain efficiencies. CEO Ian Craig added that the primary driver was bringing productivity back in line and adapting to challenging volumes with a leaner structure. For Argentina, Ian Craig noted the strategy of maintaining household penetration during recession led to a stronger recovery. In Colombia, the company focused on OVPPC and price points to gain share after a tax increase, shifting the volume curve two years out. For Guatemala, Ian Craig attributed short-term turbulence to consumers saving more due to remittance anxieties, but noted the market's long-term potential and favorable elasticities.

Ricardo Alves of Morgan Stanley sought confirmation on the magnitude of working capital release in 2H 2025, questioned the shareholder return policy in light of the new buyback, and asked if U.S. Beef could see an 'immediate' sequential recovery like U.S. Pork.

Answer

Global CFO & IR Guilherme Cavalcanti confirmed a second-half cash release is expected and reiterated the shareholder return policy of ~$1B in annual dividends, with buybacks as a use for excess cash. Wesley Batista Filho, CEO of JBS Foods USA, stated that while they expect better Q3 performance in beef, the market is far less predictable than pork, making an 'immediate' recovery less certain.

Ricardo Alves asked about the strategic drivers and potential timeline for the company's considered re-domiciliation and U.S. listing. He also questioned the BRF team about the operational impact of the recently detected avian flu outbreak in Rio Grande do Sul.

Answer

Miguel de Souza Gularte, CEO of BRF, explained that the inclusion of National Beef in the merged entity provides the necessary scale for a potential re-domiciliation, a process they are actively working on for the medium term. Regarding the avian flu, he expressed confidence in the Ministry of Agriculture's ability to control the isolated case, citing past protocols and BRF's geographic diversification and contingency plans as mitigating factors.

Ricardo Alves from Morgan Stanley requested a short-term outlook on U.S. beef spreads for March and April, and asked for an opinion on how markets like Japan and South Korea might impact U.S. prices amid tight global supply.

Answer

Executive Timothy Klein stated that while Q1 is seasonally the weakest for margins, he expects improvement heading into the spring barbecue season. He also confirmed that demand from key export partners Japan and South Korea has remained strong, even at higher price levels.

Ricardo Alves of Morgan Stanley inquired about the North American cattle cycle, asking for indicators of a turnaround. He also questioned the potential for margin resilience in Q3, considering factors like drop credits and labor, and sought insights into beef retailer behavior leading up to Labor Day.

Answer

Timothy Klein, CEO for North America, noted that while a year-over-year decline in cattle slaughter is a precursor to heifer retention, meaningful retention hasn't occurred yet. He expects Q3 and Q4 to be seasonally weaker but is encouraged by strong beef demand, with consumers trading down to less expensive cuts but still purchasing beef. Klein confirmed that retail activity for Labor Day is strong, which should help clear product.

Requested details on the expected evolution of working capital for the remainder of the year and sought clarification on the specific impacts of tariffs on the U.S. beef and pork operations, including which products are affected and how quickly the company can react to changes.

Answer

The company stated that Q1 working capital consumption was due to rebuilding inventory at higher costs, and future cash flow will depend on market demand and pricing. Regarding tariffs, the impact on beef is primarily on hides due to plant approval issues with China, which will take longer to resolve. The impact on pork was also 1-1.5 ppt but was purely tariff-related, allowing for a very quick operational reaction as tariffs are lowered.

Asked about the financial savings from unwinding receivables and liability management, the company's future dividend policy post-listing, and the key drivers required to achieve a flat EBITDA in 2025 as presented in the free cash flow sensitivity analysis.

Answer

The company expects financial expenses to decrease from $1.8B to about $1.4B due to lower receivables discounts and active liability management. The post-listing dividend policy will be flexible and tied to cash flow, aiming for a stable payout of at least $1.2 billion annually. The flat EBITDA scenario was an exercise, but could be driven by improvements in Australia and favorable chicken and pork market dynamics.

Ricardo Alves from Morgan Stanley asked for the CEO's assessment of the competitive landscape in Brazil and its implications for pricing, given cost pressures. He also requested concrete examples of how Ambev intends to 'develop the category' in a market with already high per capita beer consumption.

Answer

CEO Carlos Eduardo Lisboa asserted that Brazil's market has always been highly competitive, which strengthens the company. He emphasized that disciplined revenue management, not just pricing, will be crucial for margin expansion. To develop the category, he pointed to opportunities to increase consumer participation and expand into new occasions (e.g., with meals), highlighting the significant growth potential of non-alcoholic beer.

Ricardo Alves asked for details on the competitive environment and market share in Brazil beer. He noted that while peers seemed aggressive on pricing, Ambev appeared to gain ground, and questioned if this was related to intense discount activity in the value segment.

Answer

Executive Jean Neto stated that while final industry data for Q2 was not yet available, Ambev is excited about its performance. He acknowledged that competitor Petropolis is active, but noted that this competition is primarily in the value segment, where Ambev is under-indexed. He characterized the overall competitive environment as intense but without any new surprises.