Ricardo Buchpiguel

Ricardo Buchpiguel followed up on the increase in M&A-related transaction costs, which were around $20-$25 million in the quarter, asking if this level should be expected in subsequent quarters given Patria's reaccelerated M&A agenda.

Answer

Alexandre Saigh, CEO of Patria, explained that the company had a hiatus in acquisitions during 2025 to focus on integration and fundraising, but has now resumed M&A activity to meet its $18 billion fee-paying AUM acquisition target by 2027. Ana Russo, CFO of Patria, added that the Q4 transaction costs were higher than usual due to multiple M&A closings and signings in the same quarter, suggesting that $20 million per quarter is on the high end and a slightly lower total for next year is expected.

Ricardo Buchpiguel requested more details on Patria's $100 million in litigation liabilities, including the nature of the process, the likelihood of payment, and key steps in the main litigations. He also asked if the recent increase in M&A-related transaction costs, around $20-$25 million per quarter, should be expected to continue.

Answer

Ana Russo (CFO, Patria) clarified that approximately 85% of the $100 million litigation liability is expected to be removed from future reports due to a successful litigation outcome. Alexandre Saigh (CEO, Patria) confirmed this reduction. Regarding transaction costs, Saigh explained that Patria had a hiatus in M&A during 2025 for integration, but is now re-engaging with acquisitions, targeting an additional $10 billion in fee-paying AUM by 2027. Russo added that the $20-$25 million transaction cost in Q4 2025 was unusually high due to multiple closings and signings in that quarter, and future quarterly costs should be lower, despite ongoing M&A activity.

Ricardo Buchpiguel of BTG Pactual asked for the timeline on when the seven recently acquired REITs would be consolidated into results and inquired about the drivers behind the recent pickup in real estate fundraising.

Answer

CEO Alexandre Saigh explained that the REITs acquired from Vectis were already closed and would appear in Q3 results. For the REITs from Genial, shareholder approvals were required but had already been secured for 90% of the AUM, with the full impact expected during 2025. Regarding fundraising, Saigh highlighted the strong performance of their industrial logistics (HGLG) and urban retail (HGRU) funds, which are trading near NAV, enabling follow-on offerings. He noted that despite high interest rates, the Brazilian economy's resilience and investor demand for inflation-protected assets are driving capital flows.

Ricardo Buchpiguel requested an update on the integration process for the M&A transactions that Patria completed in the previous year, asking about which parts have been easier or more challenging than expected.

Answer

CEO Alexandre Saigh described 2025 as an "integration year" and detailed the "One Patria" program aimed at unifying front-to-back office functions. He reported that the integration is on target with no major issues, highlighting the successful implementation of common systems for HR and ERP. Saigh linked these integration efforts and resulting synergies to the company's confidence in achieving its 58% to 60% FRE margin guidance for the year.

Ricardo Buchpiguel asked about the potential impact of Chile's pension reform on inflows for various asset classes, whether Patria is preparing specific local Chilean funds to capture this opportunity, and the outlook for real estate inflows in Brazil given the macroeconomic environment.

Answer

CEO Alex Saigh explained that pension reforms across Latin America, including Chile, are expected to significantly increase the local capital pool. He confirmed Patria's core strategy is to develop local-to-local products to capture these flows. For real estate, he differentiated between 'bricks-and-mortar' strategies, which are negatively impacted by high rates in Brazil, and securities-based strategies, which are benefiting. He also noted a more positive outlook for real estate in Chile due to falling interest rates.

Ricardo Buchpiguel asked about the performance of environmental assets within the infrastructure fund, specifically if they had hit their hurdle rate, and how the segment is affected by market conditions in Brazil. He also sought to confirm the Q4 incentive fee forecast.

Answer

CEO Alex Saigh described Brazil's infrastructure sector as being in a 'mini boom,' with strong foreign interest and successful auctions, making Patria well-positioned for deployment. He did not comment on specific asset hurdle rates but emphasized the overall positive momentum. He also confirmed the expectation for incentive fees to be around '$10-ish million' in the fourth quarter.

Ricardo Buchpiguel of BTG Pactual asked if the flat quarter-over-quarter management fee was primarily due to FX variation and requested an estimate of what the growth would have been on a constant currency basis.

Answer

Bruno Zaremba, President of Finance & Operations, confirmed that FX headwinds were the main cause for flat revenue, particularly impacting the USD-denominated Global IP&S segment. He estimated that on a constant currency basis, revenue would have grown in the low-to-mid single digits, and FRE would have grown by an additional 5-6 percentage points. He emphasized that a stronger local currency is ultimately a net positive for the company's bottom line and dollar-per-share profitability.

Ricardo Buchpiguel asked about the path to achieving the firm's long-term FRE margin target of 40%, inquiring about the expected growth range for FRE-related costs and the impact of the Brazilian real's appreciation on FRE.

Answer

Bruno Zaremba, President of Finance and Operations, explained that the business has strong operating leverage, allowing for significant AUM growth without a corresponding increase in costs beyond inflation. He noted that the FX impact on FRE was not material in Q1. CEO Alessandro Morgado Horta added that significant integration synergies are still being realized, and the platform is prepared to handle much higher AUM without proportional cost growth.

Ricardo Buchpiguel inquired about the expected evolution of the Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) margin following the Compass acquisition, the anticipated dividend payout ratio for 2025, and the P&L impact of foreign exchange fluctuations on revenue.

Answer

CEO Alessandro Morgado Horta stated that FRE margins are expected to improve through cost efficiencies and cross-selling synergies. Bruno Sacchi Zaremba, President of Finance and Operations, added that a normalized FRE margin in the low 30s percent is a reasonable expectation for 2025. Zaremba also confirmed the dividend payout target remains around 80% of distributable earnings and noted that approximately 30% of company revenue is in U.S. dollars, which is impacted by currency fluctuations.

Ricardo Buchpiguel asked for an update on the fundraising progress for the VCP IV fund, particularly concerning demand from foreign investors. He also questioned whether the recent positive net inflows in the public equity segment represent a sustainable inflection point or if market volatility might reverse the trend.

Answer

Private Equity Chairman and Head of IR Bruno Zaremba stated that VCP IV is approaching its final close by year-end, highlighting unexpectedly strong demand from local institutional investors, which has shifted the LP mix to a more even local/international split. Regarding public equities, he confirmed the Q3 inflow came from international investors recognizing value in Brazil and noted that Vinci, in partnership with Compass, plans to launch UCITS funds to capitalize on this momentum.

Ricardo Buchpiguel of BTG Pactual inquired about the drivers of the strong syndication fees in Q2, the outlook for this fee line, the current competitive environment for spreads, and whether to expect tightening in the coming quarters. He also asked for clarification on the full-year ROE guidance given the strong first-half performance.

Answer

CEO Jorge L. Salas Taurel explained that while a landmark transaction drove record fees, the quarter would have been a record even without it. He emphasized the long-term strategy of systematically increasing fee income to reduce dependency on market rates. EVP - Commercial Banking, Samuel Canineu, added that the market remains competitive, but Bladex compensates for FI lending margin pressure with higher spreads on structured trade, expecting margin stabilization for the rest of the year. Regarding guidance, Mr. Salas Taurel confirmed they expect to finish slightly above the upper end of their ROE guidance.

Ricardo Buchpiguel of BTG Pactual asked about the drivers of the strong syndication fees in Q2, the outlook for this fee line, and the competitive environment for spreads. He also inquired if the strong first-half results imply Bladex could exceed its full-year ROE guidance.

Answer

CEO Jorge L. Salas Taurel explained that while a landmark transaction significantly boosted fees, the quarter would have been a record even without it, reflecting a long-term strategy to grow fee income. EVP - Commercial Banking, Samuel Canineu, noted that while the market remains competitive, Bladex is offsetting margin pressure with higher spreads in structured trade finance. CEO Jorge L. Salas Taurel confirmed they expect to finish the year at the upper end of their ROE guidance, potentially slightly above it.

Ricardo Buchpiguel of BTG Pactual asked about the drivers for the strong syndication fees, the outlook for that revenue line, and the competitive environment for spreads and NIM. He also questioned if the strong first-half performance suggests Bladex could exceed its full-year ROE guidance.

Answer

CEO Jorge L. Salas Taurel explained that while a significant one-off transaction boosted fees, the quarter would have been a record regardless, reflecting a multi-year strategy to systematically grow fee income. EVP of Commercial Banking, Samuel Canineu, noted that while the market remains competitive, higher spreads on structured trade finance are compensating for pressure on FI lending margins. CEO Salas Taurel confirmed that Bladex expects to finish the year near the upper end of its ROE guidance, or slightly above it.

Ricardo Buchpiguel of BTG Pactual inquired about the drivers of the record syndication fees, the outlook for this revenue stream, and the competitive landscape for spreads. He also asked if the strong H1 results imply Bladex could surpass its full-year ROE guidance.

Answer

CEO Jorge L. Salas Taurel explained that while a landmark deal drove record fees, the underlying trend of systematically increasing fee income is a core strategy to reduce dependency on market rates. EVP of Commercial Banking, Samuel Canineu, noted that while the market is competitive, the bank compensates with higher spreads in structured trade finance. CEO Salas Taurel confirmed they expect to finish the year at the upper end of their ROE guidance, or slightly above it.

Ricardo Buchpiguel of BTG Pactual asked about the drivers for the strong syndication fees in Q2, the outlook for this revenue line, and the current competitive environment for spreads. He also inquired if the strong first-half results suggest Bladex could surpass its full-year ROE guidance.

Answer

CEO Jorge L. Salas Taurel acknowledged a significant one-off transaction but noted the quarter would have been a record regardless, highlighting the strategy to systematically grow fee income. EVP - Commercial Banking Samuel Canineu added that while the market remains competitive, Bladex has offset margin pressure with higher spreads in structured trade and expects stabilization. CEO Salas Taurel confirmed they anticipate being at the upper end of, or slightly above, their full-year guidance.

Ricardo Buchpiguel from BTG Pactual posed two questions: one on the positive impact of market volatility on spreads and potential upside to NIM guidance, and another on the discrepancy between strong letters of credit portfolio growth and a sequential decrease in related fee income.

Answer

CFO Annette van de Solis explained that despite pressure from lower rates, disciplined pricing and a strong pipeline of medium-term deals position Bladex to benefit from wider spreads. Chief Commercial Officer Samuel Canineu clarified that the fee income timing was impacted by large deals closing late in the quarter, with revenue to be recognized in Q2. He also noted a temporary mix shift to higher-volume, lower-fee deals. Executive Jorge Salas added that he expects margin expansion, not compression, in upcoming quarters.

Ricardo Buchpiguel asked for clarification on the drivers behind the expected 2025 Net Interest Margin (NIM) contraction beyond Fed rate cuts, and inquired about the growth outlook for fee income, particularly from the loan structuring and syndication business.

Answer

CFO Ana de Mendez explained the NIM guidance reflects tighter lending spreads from a more competitive market and an anticipated 100 basis point reduction in rates. Chief Commercial Officer Samuel Canineu noted that the syndication business growth is sustainable due to strategic changes and a strong pipeline. Executive Jorge Salas projected overall fee income growth of around 10% for 2025, driven by both syndications and the new letters of credit platform.

Ricardo Buchpiguel of BTG Pactual asked about the compression of loan spreads in Brazil due to capital markets activity and the potential impact of a U.S. presidential election on Latin American trade volumes.

Answer

CEO Jorge Salas addressed the election question, stating that while the effects are hard to predict, Bladex is monitoring remittances, trade flows, and inflation. He expressed confidence that the bank's short-term model allows it to navigate volatility and noted that supply chain disruptions could accelerate nearshoring. Chief Commercial Officer Samuel Canineu explained that while Brazil is a competitive market, Bladex's growth there is driven by capturing market share with a superior product offering from its new strategy, not by general market conditions.

Ricardo Buchpiguel of BTG Pactual asked about capital allocation given the high Basel ratio, the potential timing for accelerating the credit portfolio, and the contribution mix to gross profit from repricing versus lower funding costs.

Answer

CFO Artur Schunck stated that the strong balance sheet is crucial in a volatile market and that the company prefers buybacks over dividends at current valuations. He emphasized cautious cash flow management. Executive Ricardo da Silva declined to break down the gross profit drivers, calling it a dynamic mix of levers. Artur Schunck also noted that major investments to support growth are complete, and the company expects to see continued operating leverage in 2025.

Ricardo Buchpiguel asked for the expected growth outlook for the Consumer Finance 2.0 portfolio by year-end and into next year. He also questioned if the deteriorating macroeconomic environment has altered the company's overall loan growth strategy.

Answer

Executive João Vitor Nazareth Teixeira de Souza projected the Consumer Finance 2.0 portfolio could reach approximately BRL 700 million by year-end, with continued growth expected in 2025 and 2026, albeit with a cautious, step-by-step approach. He affirmed that despite macro headwinds, Inter can maintain its growth pace due to its small market share, highly collateralized portfolio, and low cost of funding, allowing it to 'cherry-pick' clients.

Asked about the impact of Pronampe's guarantees on SME delinquency and provisions, and the outlook for client NII, which had declined, especially concerning the pressure from commercial funding margins amid potential Selic rate cuts.

Answer

Pronampe guarantees contribute about BRL 500 million per quarter in provision recovery. Regarding NII, the previous pressure was partly due to using market funding for the last crop season. The new crop season has more equalizable resources and better spreads, which is expected to improve client NII going forward. The bank's accounting NII is robust and expected to grow.