Rick Patel

Rick Patel asked about the company's average unit retail (AUR) expectations for Q4, considering competitive promotions and product wins, and sought guidance on year-end inventory levels in both dollars and units.

Answer

CFO Mike Mathias expects Q4 AUR to be relatively flat, similar to Q3, with Aerie driving comps through AUR increases while American Eagle sees more markdowns in jeans. He anticipates year-end inventory to be in line with sales growth (8%-9% comps), with units aligning with sales, noting the company is in 'chase mode' for Aerie and OFFLINE.

Rick Patel asked about expectations for Average Unit Retail (AUR) in Q4, considering competitive promotions, product, and pricing wins. He also sought guidance on where inventory, in terms of both dollars and units, is expected to end the year.

Answer

CFO Mike Mathias stated that AUR was relatively flat in Q3 and is expected to be similar in Q4, driven by a mix of business between brands and category mix. He noted Aerie is seeing some AUR uptick, while AE is using more markdowns in jeans. For year-end inventory, he indicated that with the trend exceeding plans, the company is in 'chase mode' and expects inventory to be in line with sales growth, with units aligning with the 8%-9% comp guidance, also factoring in tariff impacts.

Rick Patel of Raymond James Financial, Inc. asked about the outlook for promotions and how the company is balancing the need to drive conversion against protecting gross margins. He also requested an analysis of the SG&A expense trend, questioning the drivers behind the Q2 flat guidance and the spending approach for the second half.

Answer

Executive VP & CFO Mike Mathias stated that the Q2 outlook still assumes some markdown pressure to ensure a clean inventory position heading into back-to-school. For the full year, he expects SG&A to be roughly flat, with increased spending on customer-facing advertising being offset by reductions in other areas, including compensation.

Rick Patel asked for more details on SG&A expectations, specifically how increased marketing investment would be mitigated by other areas. He also inquired about any variability in U.S. comparable sales performance due to weather or regional differences.

Answer

CFO Robert Ball explained that while marketing investment would increase in Q4, it would be at a slightly slower pace, with G&A leverage expected from sales growth, aiming for a balanced investment approach. He noted no significant regional variability in U.S. comparable sales due to weather, as the broad store fleet typically offsets localized impacts.

Rick Patel from Raymond James asked for more details on the company's SG&A expectations, specifically how increased marketing investments in Q4 would be mitigated by other areas. He also inquired about any variability in U.S. comparable sales performance due to weather or regional differences.

Answer

CFO Robert Ball explained that while marketing investment would increase in Q4, it would be at a slightly slower pace, with general and administrative expense leverage expected due to sales growth. He emphasized a balanced investment approach and noted no significant regional or weather-related variability impacting U.S. comparable sales performance across the broader quarter.

Rick Patel asked for expectations on the promotional environment for both Abercrombie and Hollister, questioning if the back-half improvement at Abercrombie reflects fewer units or more assortment confidence. He also inquired about growth expectations for Europe and Asia.

Answer

CFO Robert Ball stated that while some AUR pressure from carryover will persist in Q2 for A&F, the company assumes flat AUR for the year and will work to hold its multi-year gains. He noted the goal is always to pull back on promotions where possible. For international growth, Ball reiterated the expectation for full-year growth across all regions. COO Scott Lipesky added that strong performance in the UK and Germany is driving European growth.

Rick Patel asked for more detail on the promotional outlook for Abercrombie and Hollister, and for growth expectations in Europe and Asia for the remainder of the year.

Answer

SVP & CFO Robert Ball explained that while some AUR pressure will persist in Q2 for Abercrombie, it will lessen. He stated the baseline assumption is to hold the multi-year AUR gains for both brands but the team will seek daily opportunities to improve. He also reiterated the expectation for full-year growth across all regions. EVP & COO Scott Lipesky highlighted strong performance in the UK and Germany as key drivers in Europe.

Rick Patel asked On to elaborate on the opportunity with younger consumers, defining what constitutes a "young consumer," the current size of this business, and the go-to-market strategy for acquiring these consumers across different categories and geographies.

Answer

Executive Co-Chairman and Co-Founder Caspar Coppetti noted that while On started with an older running demographic, it has gained significant traction with younger consumers over the past 6-7 years, aided by collaborations with Zendaya and Burna Boy. He described this as a "relatively new phenomenon" and highlighted the appeal to "cool kids" in affluent U.S. high schools, leading to a strong lifetime value (LTV). He also mentioned the success of the kids' line, which is hard to keep in stock.

Rick Patel asked for an expansion on On's opportunity with younger consumers, including their definition of this demographic, the current size of this business, and the go-to-market strategy to acquire them across different categories and geographies.

Answer

Caspar Coppetti (Executive Co-Chairman and Co-Founder) explained that while On started with an older running demographic, it has gained significant traction with younger consumers over the last 6-7 years, aided by collaborations with figures like Zendaya and Burna Boy. He noted that 'cool kids' in affluent U.S. high schools are wearing On, indicating a strong long-term value (LTV) demographic. He also mentioned the successful launch of a kids' line, leveraging the brand's appeal to younger teens and children.

Rick Patel from Raymond James asked if Q2 inventory levels reflected any pull-forward of orders to get ahead of tariffs and also inquired about the impact of foreign exchange on international growth.

Answer

CFO Sarah Oughtred confirmed that the 8% unit inventory growth was partly driven by pre-positioning inventory ahead of original tariff dates, while the 14% dollar growth also reflected a mix shift to higher-cost goods. She stated that the foreign exchange impact was not material to the strong 20% international growth, which was broad-based across key regions.

Rick Patel from Raymond James Financial asked a big-picture question about the 'key city' strategy, requesting an update on the progress and remaining runway in the current top 30 cities, and how to think about the opportunity to expand into new key cities.

Answer

President & CEO Patrice Louvet stated that significant opportunities for growth remain even within the existing top 30 cities, using London as an example of identifying further expansion possibilities. He indicated that a more detailed discussion on the strategy for the next tranche of cities would be provided at the company's upcoming Investor Day.

Rick Patel asked for a framework to understand the level of newness in stores, specifically the mix of new year-round products versus core items, and whether the merchandising strategy is now fully optimized. He also requested a breakdown of the drivers for the Q1 SG&A increase and if the relative size of those investment buckets would remain consistent going forward.

Answer

Carrie Baker, President of Brand & Commercial, described the newness strategy as a continuous, strategic flow of product throughout the season rather than a single drop, and stated that while progress is strong, the merchandising function is not 'done' and is constantly improving. Beth Clymer, President & COO, confirmed the bulk of SG&A growth was from strategic, revenue-driving investments in areas like marketing and store labor. She emphasized that the company is learning in real-time and will dynamically adjust investment levels based on performance rather than sticking to a fixed allocation.

Rick Patel from Raymond James asked for a breakdown of the new versus core product mix in stores, an assessment of the current merchandising strategy, and the relative size of the investment buckets (stores, marketing, merchandising) that drove the Q1 SG&A increase.

Answer

Carrie Baker, President of Brand & Commercial, explained that newness is being strategically flowed into stores throughout the season and that the merchandising function is still a work in progress with more improvements planned. President & COO Beth Clymer clarified that the majority of SG&A growth was from strategic investments and that the company is dynamically allocating these funds based on real-time performance rather than fixed budgets.

Rick Patel of Raymond James Financial, Inc. asked for details on the evolving U.S. distribution strategy, particularly whether consumers are migrating to the retail channel as department store exposure is reduced, and the long-term vision for the wholesale versus retail mix.

Answer

Chairman & CEO John Idol revealed that the company is not fully recapturing sales from closed stores, leading to a new strategy of re-entering certain markets with smaller, 1,500-2,000 sq. ft. stores. He expects to guide to modest store growth in fiscal 2027. For wholesale, the focus is shifting from door closures to renovating existing shop-in-shops, with the goal of returning the channel to growth in calendar year 2027.

Rick Patel asked for an update on the impact of anti-American sentiment on international performance and requested more detail on the enhancements to markdown algorithms benefiting gross margin.

Answer

Co-Founder & Co-CEO Mike Karanikolas noted that negative sentiment has moderated but still impacts regions like Canada, while China remains a strong growth driver. He described the markdown algorithm's impact as 'meaningful,' with CFO Jesse Timmermans adding that the benefits are in their early stages and are factored into full-year guidance.

Rick Patel from Raymond James Financial asked for an analysis of HOKA's international growth drivers in Q1, distinguishing between organic growth and new distribution, and also requested an outlook for SG&A expenses.

Answer

CEO Stefano Caroti attributed HOKA's international success to strong sell-through that outpaces sell-in, record reorders in Europe, and expansion with key retail partners. CFO Steven Fasching detailed that SG&A will continue to be invested in brand building, marketing, and infrastructure to support growth, with a focus on managing expenses efficiently in proportion to business scale.

Rick Patel from Raymond James Financial, Inc. requested an analysis of HOKA's international growth drivers, distinguishing between organic growth and new distribution. He also asked for the outlook on SG&A expenses and areas of spending control.

Answer

CEO Stefano Caroti emphasized that international growth is driven by strong product performance, with sell-through outpacing sell-in and record reorders. CFO Steven Fasching detailed that SG&A will see targeted investments in brand building and marketing, while other enterprise costs will be managed efficiently in line with business growth.

Rick Patel from Raymond James & Associates, Inc. asked for an update on the company's performance in Asia, particularly in China, given the challenging macroeconomic backdrop, and inquired about any resulting strategy changes.

Answer

CEO Stefano Caroti stated that both brands are performing well in China despite the climate, with HOKA becoming a top 5 brand in major races. CFO Steven Fasching added that Deckers is fortunate to be small but growing in China, focusing on community-building, and that the Asia Pacific region is a few years behind Europe in its development.

Rick Patel asked about the expected progression of growth in North America, seeking to understand the drivers of the implied improvement from a Q1 decline to modest growth for the full year.

Answer

CEO Joanne Crevoiserat and CFO & COO Scott Roe explained that the Q1 decline of 1% was better than expected and was primarily impacted by a planned wholesale drag. This headwind is not expected to repeat in subsequent quarters. The underlying direct-to-consumer trends are positive, which supports the outlook for slight growth in the region for the full fiscal year.

Rick Patel from Raymond James Financial asked for an explanation of the performance disparity between Heydude's direct-to-consumer and wholesale channels and inquired about the timeline to right-size inventory in the wholesale channel.

Answer

CEO Andrew Rees explained that Heydude's DTC growth was primarily driven by new points of distribution. This includes the opening of new outlet stores, which improve brand awareness, and an outsized performance on TikTok Shop, where Heydude is a top-three footwear brand. He indicated the significant wholesale inventory cleanup actions would be concentrated in Q3.